View Full Version : Reds are 16-7 in August (.696%)

Is that good?

Post all star game 25-13 (.658)

Over last 30 games they are 20-10 best in the NL, 2nd in MLB behind the twins

I may be wrong but those seem like good numbers to me.

http://smiliesftw.com/x/hypereek5.gif

mlh1981

08-28-2010, 10:30 AM

Nice bounce back after that awful sweep in Philly (which I was there for 2 of those games, I may add).

Certainly, at a time where many expected this team to falter, and for the "real" Reds to emerge, we have stepped it up.

There have been critical moments this season, like the Philly sweep, the St. Louis sweep, and other points, where people felt like this team had been "exposed." It's after those humbling losses that we have bounced back the most.

Its a shame the Giants series totally screwed up our Pythag.

Reds magic number to clinch the division is 32 games, clinch playoff spot is 35.

New York Red

08-28-2010, 11:15 AM

Its a shame the Giants series totally screwed up our Pythag.

Our what? :confused:

RedsFanInBama

08-28-2010, 02:08 PM

Reds magic number to clinch the division is 32 games, clinch playoff spot is 35.

How can the magic number to clinch a playoff spot be higher than the magic number to clinch the division?

knoonan991

08-28-2010, 02:13 PM

How can the magic number to clinch a playoff spot be higher than the magic number to clinch the division?

I immediately thought the same thing. :D

Spazzrico

08-28-2010, 03:28 PM

Wild Card

sivman17

08-28-2010, 03:33 PM

pretty impressive in august

BigPoppa

08-28-2010, 03:34 PM

I immediately thought the same thing. :D

me too :confused:

sivman17

08-28-2010, 03:39 PM

How can the magic number to clinch a playoff spot be higher than the magic number to clinch the division?

It's because Philly and SF have better records than STL for the wild card right now. Our magic number for the wild card is based off of Philly's record, while our magic number for the division is based off of STL.

bshall2105

08-28-2010, 03:41 PM

It's because Philly and SF have better records than STL for the wild card right now. Our magic number for the wild card is based off of Philly's record, while our magic number for the division is based off of STL.

But if the magic number for the division is 32, the magic number for a playoff berth would also be 32.

sivman17

08-28-2010, 03:43 PM

But if the magic number for the division is 32, the magic number for a playoff berth would also be 32.

Ohh.. yeah, that would make sense. Perhaps it's supposed to say 35 is for the wild card.

How can the magic number to clinch a playoff spot be higher than the magic number to clinch the division?

Wildcards races are tighter than the division race.

But if the magic number for the division is 32, the magic number for a playoff berth would also be 32.

Its 32 for the division and 35 to clinch a wild card spot.

I didnt realize that would be so confusing.

Quatitos

08-28-2010, 11:50 PM

I like to use http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/~baseball/national_league.html for magic numbers. Its more complicated than the traditional magic number, but it does make more sense that your magic number for clinching the division is greater than or equal to the magic number for you to clinch a playoff spot.

RedsFanInBama

08-29-2010, 03:37 AM

Its 32 for the division and 35 to clinch a wild card spot.

I didnt realize that would be so confusing.

It was only confusing because you didn't write what you actually meant. Forgive me for not being able to interpret it.

It was only confusing because you didn't write what you actually meant. Forgive me for not being able to interpret it.

No I wrote what I meant.

The numbers are independent of each other.

will5979

08-29-2010, 10:31 AM

Our what? :confused:

Don't pay any attention, its a baseball dork thing, I don't understand it either. Just put up the only stat that matters, WINS...who give a frogs fat ass about all this jargon like pythag, WHIP, win percentage on day games, night games, record while playing in front of Mickey Mouse, etc.

Quatitos

08-29-2010, 10:36 AM

Don't pay any attention, its a baseball dork thing, I don't understand it either. Just put up the only stat that matters, WINS...who give a frogs fat ass about all this jargon like pythag, WHIP, win percentage on day games, night games, record while playing in front of Mickey Mouse, etc.

I think the record while playing in front of Mickey Mouse would be very telling of how this team can handle pressure ;)

Quatitos

08-29-2010, 10:39 AM

No I wrote what I meant.

The numbers are independent of each other.

You did not write what you meant, you wrote:

Reds magic number to clinch the division is 32 games, clinch playoff spot is 35.

when you meant wildcard spot is 35, which would make sense. Saying clinch playoff spot right after saying clinch the division (which would clinch a playoff spot) is confusing. The magic number for clinching a playoff spot would be the smaller of the magic numbers for clinching the division and clinching the wildcard spot.

Once you clarified it to what you actually meant, it was not confusing.

The numbers are independent of each other. The Reds could clinch a playoff spot before the division. This is beyond ridiculous that you guys cant understand this.

Quatitos

08-29-2010, 11:38 AM

The numbers are independent of each other. The Reds could clinch a playoff spot before the division. This is beyond ridiculous that you guys cant understand this.

You sir have been talking about 3 numbers, not 2. The magic numbers for clinching the division and clinching the wild card are indeed independent. The third number you originally referenced was clinching a playoff spot, which is completely based off of these first 2 numbers. You clinch a playoff spot based on either A) clinching your division or B) clinching the wildcard spot.

Like I said, the clinching a playoff spot number is the lower number between clinching the division and clinching the wildcard spot. At the moment the division number is smaller than the wildcard spot, so that CURRENTLY is the smallest number of wins/opponent losses needed to clinch a playoff spot. If the Phillies/Giants start to tank then the wildcard magic number could get smaller then the division number so then the magic number for clinching a playoff spot would be equal to the magic number for the wildcard.

Its getting kind of ridiculous that you fail to see where you failed to actually say what you meant and confused people.

The magic number for clinching a playoff spot will NEVER be larger than the magic number for clinching your division, but it can be smaller.

As I know you are trying to reason, the magic number for clinching the wildcard can be larger than the magic number for clinching the division, but once again, that is not what you originally said so it would be nice if you could actually understand that you misspoke originally.

Reds magic number to clinch the division is 32 games, clinch playoff spot is 35.

I will quote this again, you should notice how there is no mention of the term wildcard in this post. This is where the confusion stemmed from because your statement in this post is completely wrong because you failed to say what you actually meant. Please do not try to act like people are too stupid to realize something based on a mistake that is completely your own

So glad we cleared this up. Now back to the original non trolled message.

Quatitos

08-29-2010, 12:00 PM

So glad we cleared this up. Now back to the original non trolled message.

And how was I trolling?

New York Red

08-29-2010, 12:02 PM

The numbers are independent of each other. The Reds could clinch a playoff spot before the division.

I thought it made sense. Still wondering what the "pythag" thing is though. :confused:

Quatitos

08-29-2010, 12:05 PM

I thought it made sense. Still wondering what the "pythag" thing is though. :confused:

It is what a team is expected to win based on their runs allowed and runs scored. If you score more runs then you allow, you are expected to win more. If you allow more runs than you score, you are expected to lose more. The larger the run differential, the farther away from .500 you get. So if you allowed 100 runs and scored 200, you should win more than a team that allowed 100 runs and scored 150.

The exact formulas are more complicated than that, but it is the gist of the statistic.

New York Red

08-29-2010, 12:08 PM

It is what a team is expected to win based on their runs allowed and runs scored. If you score more runs then you allow, you are expected to win more. If you allow more runs than you score, you are expected to lose more. The larger the run differential, the farther away from .500 you get. So if you allowed 100 runs and scored 200, you should win more than a team that allowed 100 runs and scored 150.

The exact formulas are more complicated than that, but it is the gist of the statistic.

Thank you.

And how was I trolling?

Because you clearly understand that they can clinch a playoff spot before clinching the division.

they can clinch a playoff spot before the division and still win the division. Why this is a problem to understand when you seem to understand it is very weird to me. Its either you dont know, or you are just trolling.

Quatitos

08-29-2010, 12:17 PM

Because you clearly understand that they can clinch a playoff spot before clinching the division.

they can clinch a playoff spot before the division and still win the division. Why this is a problem to understand when you seem to understand it is very weird to me. Its either you dont know, or you are just trolling.

Do you not read what you type? I understand what I said, I clearly think you do not know what you said.

Do you not read what you type? I understand what I said, I clearly think you do not know what you said.

Yes I said the Reds magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 1 thing, the number to clinch a division is another.

those 2 numbers arent connected at all. You think they are and I now understand that is where you are having a problem. You think the Reds magic number for the division is going to go down at the same rate the playoff number is. It doesnt work like that. They could clinch a playoff spot before the division, and still clinch the division. They can clinch AT LEAST a wild card spot but that isnt what I said.

I cant explain this any more for you if you dont understand it by now, I have a feeling I wont be able to explain it to you at all.

Quatitos

08-29-2010, 12:24 PM

Yes I said the Reds magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 1 thing, the number to clinch a division is another.

those 2 numbers arent connected at all. You think they are and I now understand that is where you are having a problem. You think the Reds magic number for the division is going to go down at the same rate the playoff number is. It doesnt work like that. They could clinch a playoff spot before the division, and still clinch the division. They can clinch AT LEAST a wild card spot but that isnt what I said.

I cant explain this any more for you if you dont understand it by now, I have a feeling I wont be able to explain it to you at all.

You really don't understand what you are saying do you?

I will put it simply, the magic number for clinching a playoff spot is the lesser of the magic number to clinch the division and the magic number to clinch the wildcard.

Simple, please understand that they are connected. I am done now, and if you still fail to see that you are wrong, well I will live with that and accept your inability to comprehend it.

The Division magic number is dependent on what the Cardinals do.

The Playoff magic number is dependent on what the Cardinals, Giant, Braves, Padres, Phillies, and every other team in the league.

They can clinch a playoff spot before the division, depending on what other teams do. The Cardinals could win 5 games and the Reds win 5 games and it only lower the division number by 5 games. Mean while every team in the WC hunt could lose 5 in a row during the same span and lower the playoff number by 10. See how they arent connected now? You seem to be trying to say that if they clinch a playoff spot its only a wild card. I was saying they could clinch a playoff spot. That doesnt mean they cant clinch the division. Yes I understood what I said.

I'm done being trolled.

Caveman Techie

08-29-2010, 04:56 PM

GIDP, I think you are confussed. The magic number for clinching the playoffs will ALWAYS = the lowest number between either clinching the Division (playoffs) or clinching the Wildcard (playoffs). What you should of typed was like Quatitos said was Wildcard, not Playoffs.

Fon Duc Tow

08-29-2010, 05:03 PM

This has been a fun thread.

I might as well delete this thread.

bshall2105

08-29-2010, 09:07 PM

Can this be nominated for thread of the year?

Vottomatic

08-29-2010, 09:32 PM

I read somewhere that the magic number to clinch the division is 29. I haven't done my own computation yet though.

I read somewhere that our chance to make the playoffs is now over 94%.

sivman17

08-29-2010, 11:28 PM

I read somewhere that our chance to make the playoffs is now over 94%.

I'm not going to put any stock into percentages this year. We had a couple games were we literally had like a 99.9999% chance of winning, and we did not win.

Girevik

08-30-2010, 09:30 AM

Right now the magic number for the wild card is pretty meaningless because there are so many teams in the running, IMO.

Vottomatic

08-30-2010, 02:34 PM

I read somewhere that this was thread of the year.

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