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redssince75
08-29-2010, 09:57 AM
The old baseball adage of the best teams lose 1/3, the worst teams win 1/3, and it's what you do with the remaining 1/3 that matters. Last night was just one of those games; you can't win them all.

We've won 43 and lost 43. In the remaining 1/3 we are 31-12. If we keep that pace through the final 33 we'll finish either 94-68 or 93-69....either should be good enough.

Cant Touch This
08-29-2010, 10:46 AM
It's really a great formula. I think I've heard managers use 50 and 50 which is close to 1/3. (Every team will win 50 games, and every team will lose 50 games. It's the other 62 that define the champions.)

So, to take the idea of your thread and use the 50/50 rule, the Reds have already won and lost their 50 games. They are now 24-5 in the first 29 games into their final 62 - that's .828 ball! Imagine if they played .828 ball for all of those 62 games. They'd finish with a record of 101-61. That would require them to go 27-6 the rest of the way out. While unlikely, it's not impossible. Then again, they could also go 0-33. That would suck.

(Edit: The Yankees and Rays are 29-0 into their leg of 62 games. The Padres are 26-2.)

Vottomatic
08-29-2010, 11:00 AM
Definitely a winnable game last night. Factor in the Cards losing and we should be 5 games up.

The more room we put between us and the Cards before that 3 game series in St. Louis, the better, IMHO.

If we'd lost by 3+ runs, I might feel differently. But in GABP with a top offense like ours, Arroyo only giving up 3 runs, etc., etc.............we shouldn't be losing 3-2 in that situation.

Just my opinion.

ezluke
08-29-2010, 12:24 PM
Definitely a winnable game last night. Factor in the Cards losing and we should be 5 games up.

The more room we put between us and the Cards before that 3 game series in St. Louis, the better, IMHO.

If we'd lost by 3+ runs, I might feel differently. But in GABP with a top offense like ours, Arroyo only giving up 3 runs, etc., etc.............we shouldn't be losing 3-2 in that situation.

Just my opinion.

We are the better team, but the Cubs are professionals too..sometimes you have to give the other team credit. One team always loses in a pitchers duel, this time it was the Reds...they weren't going to win the rest of their games.

We have won plenty of games that we shouldn't have won, i'm not going to stress over being on the wrong end once in a while.

Quatitos
08-29-2010, 12:44 PM
Definitely a winnable game last night. Factor in the Cards losing and we should be 5 games up.

The more room we put between us and the Cards before that 3 game series in St. Louis, the better, IMHO.

If we'd lost by 3+ runs, I might feel differently. But in GABP with a top offense like ours, Arroyo only giving up 3 runs, etc., etc.............we shouldn't be losing 3-2 in that situation.

Just my opinion.
I don't feel that bad about losing that game. Yes we have a top statistical offense, but we are very prone to being shut down in games. I don't want to look up the stat because it is depressing but we do lead the league in times being shutout.

It is unfortunate that Arroyo pitched rather well and that we failed to get a win, but it appears that is what happens to our offense sometimes. Lets just hope we can bounce back with some offense today.

redssince75
08-29-2010, 06:20 PM
It's really a great formula. I think I've heard managers use 50 and 50 which is close to 1/3. (Every team will win 50 games, and every team will lose 50 games. It's the other 62 that define the champions.)

So, to take the idea of your thread and use the 50/50 rule, the Reds have already won and lost their 50 games. They are now 24-5 in the first 29 games into their final 62 - that's .828 ball! Imagine if they played .828 ball for all of those 62 games. They'd finish with a record of 101-61. That would require them to go 27-6 the rest of the way out. While unlikely, it's not impossible. Then again, they could also go 0-33. That would suck.

(Edit: The Yankees and Rays are 29-0 into their leg of 62 games. The Padres are 26-2.)

You really can't use hard numbers for this kind of analysis, you have to use ratios and apply the ratios forward to the end of the season.

Cant Touch This
08-29-2010, 06:42 PM
You really can't use hard numbers for this kind of analysis, you have to use ratios and apply the ratios forward to the end of the season.

I know. But it's still entertaining (to me) to look at the hard numbers as they stand right now for the basis of comparison. For instance, Baltimore and Pittsburgh haven't reached their 50 win plateau yet, which means their "other 62" is going to really suck once they hit 50 wins.