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membengal
08-30-2010, 07:22 AM
They are not season-defining, this season has already been defined by the fun of a pennant chase and falling in love with a baseball team anew.

But the next 10 games are absolutely going to help define the shape of the pennant chase for Cincinnati. It is unquestionably as dangerous a 10-game stretch as the one they just had out west in my mind.

First up, three at home against old pennant race nemisis Milwaukee. At least, I still have bad flashbacks to the last three games up there in 1999. While the 2010 Brewers are deeply flawed in terms of starting pitching, we also draw Gallardo in one of the three games, Tuesday against Harang. And Milwaukee can still hit. Man, can they hit. There are no guarantees against the Brewers, far from it. Add in any temptations to look ahead to next weekend, and the Reds will need to be extra-careful the next three.

The Reds would be doing well to get 2 of the next 3.


Off-day on Thursday.


Then, obviously, the latest OK Corral thingy with StL in StL. They've, per usual, played with their staff to bring all their hammers against the Reds. And StL will clearly be pushing hard for the sweep, they almost have to get all three at this point.

At this point, I would be fairly happy if the Reds find a way to get 1 of those 3.

Finally, and this is actually the series that has me most concerned, four games in Colorado. Against a Rockies team belatedly catching fire. Except, for Colorado, it might not be belated. Memories of how fiery hot they got a few Septembers ago in their unlikely run to the playoffs are still fresh out there, and they have recently crawled to the edge of the wild card race. Add in how hot Carlos Gonzalez has been (he is on the edge of the triple crown chase himself and a potenital legit third MVP candidate in the NL) and how difficult it can be for teams coming into Colorado on occasion, and that is four that really bother me at this juncture.

If the Reds can split that series, I would be pleased.

That makes my baseline for the next 10 days worth of games a hoped for 5-5 record. If they better that, in my opinion, this division is ours. If they fall below that mark, we look up 10 days from now and StL is potentially a closer object than it would appear in the Reds' rear view mirror.

Come up .500 and I think it is close to status quo for Cincy with regard to where they are now in nice position for the last two and a half weeks.

I bet all the Chapman-coming-up rumors and Harang into rotation and mothballing EV stuff we are seeing, not to mention trying to get Phillips/Cairo/Nix healthy by giving them time off is Walt's effort to get this team situated as well as he can for this next 10-game stretch.

It feels like a buckle in stretch.

reds1869
08-30-2010, 09:14 AM
It is definitely a "buckle in" stretch and I'm a;ready reaching for the shoulder harness. This is going to be a fun ride. I'm young enough that my only memories of winning a title are as a child; I can't wait to watch the last part of the season unfold.

Cyclone792
08-30-2010, 09:15 AM
Big stretch of games indeed. 6-4 through this stretch lets me feel pretty comfortable. 5-5 would be ok so long as one of those wins is in St. Louis. Less than five wins, though, and the situation could get dicey.

Personally, I think the seven game road trip is probably a bigger road trip than the west coast trip we were just on.

Ghosts of 1990
08-30-2010, 09:27 AM
They're all big. Close to the end of the season we have a trip out to San Diego who will be fighting for their lives and then come home to host Milwaukee (like you said old playoff nemesis).

You have to win, win, win as much as you can and hope the rest takes care of itself.

Redsfan320
08-30-2010, 09:47 AM
Carlos Gonzalez (Car-go they call him there) is a sheer beast. He sprays it all over the field, out of the park, and has an awesome glove too. I see on the highlights about every day.


320

oneupper
08-30-2010, 09:58 AM
Carlos Gonzalez (Car-go they call him there) is a sheer beast. He sprays it all over the field, out of the park, and has an awesome glove too. I see on the highlights about every day.


320

I have to admit that "compatriota" CarGo is having a great year.

Have you seen his Home/Away splits? They're insane.
Unfortunately we'll have to face him at Coors.

(Home 1.212 OPS, Away .697).

At home, he's Barry Bonds on steroids. On the Road, he's Paul Janish.

15fan
08-30-2010, 09:59 AM
Would love to see an extra innings marathon between Cards & Astros in Houston on Tues night before rosters expand on Wed.

Cards rotation sets up like this for the next week:

Mon: Westbrook @ Hou
Tues: Carpenter @ Hou
Wed: Garcia @ Hou

Th: Off

Fri would be Lohse's turn, but I think LaRussa skips him with the off day on Thurs so that the Reds get Wainright on Friday, Westbrook on Saturday, and Carpenter on Sunday.

kbrake
08-30-2010, 10:07 AM
Would love to see an extra innings marathon between Cards & Astros in Houston on Tues night before rosters expand on Wed.

Cards rotation sets up like this for the next week:

Mon: Westbrook @ Hou
Tues: Carpenter @ Hou
Wed: Garcia @ Hou

Th: Off

Fri would be Lohse's turn, but I think LaRussa skips him with the off day on Thurs so that the Reds get Wainright on Friday, Westbrook on Saturday, and Carpenter on Sunday.

Jeff Suppan is getting the start Wednesday for the Cards in Houston. Garcia will be pushed back to Friday so the Cards can have their big 3 going against the Reds.

traderumor
08-30-2010, 10:15 AM
At this stage, other than team and fan pride, 5-5 over that stretch will likely hold court, no matter what order and against whom they come. I suppose there is the chance that the Cards go on a 10 game winning streak over that same timeframe, with 3 of them coming against us. But they are playing in Houston, who has had their number all year and are playing well since dumping Berkman and Oswalt.

BTW, viewing each stretch of the season in 10 game chunks is good for MLB fan mental health ;).

redsmetz
08-30-2010, 10:37 AM
At this juncture of the season, the goal is to win as many games as possible against whatever team we're facing. At this point, there's no question that lesser clubs still have some game in them and can't be taken lightly (I don't think anyone's suggesting that). The Cardinals situation in their last two series (maybe more) shows that any team can be another at any time right now.

I'm comfortable with a split in the next ten games, although I think we'll do better. The key, as I (and others) have said, is to keep winning our games. The rest will take care of itself.

Heath
08-30-2010, 10:48 AM
From here on out, every 10 game streak can have 6 wins in it.

There are only 32 left.

redsmetz
08-30-2010, 11:05 AM
From here on out, every 10 game streak can have 6 wins in it.

There are only 32 left.

If we play at the level we have (.577 clip), the Cardinals can only lose 9 games just to tie. They have 34 left which means they'd need to play .706 from here on out. If we only play .500, they still have to play at a .647 level.

That said, of course, we still have to play this out and get it done. In the last ten games, we've played at the .600 pace you suggest. That's 19 wins and it would mean the Cards have a very daunting task (26-8) to win it. I don't think they have that in them. I hope we have at least.

Still, I won't count my chickens until they're hatched.

membengal
08-30-2010, 11:23 AM
Yeah, I'd be thrilled with 6 out of these next 10. Thrilled.

Just not counting on it.

Those four to end the stretch in Colorado are ill-timed. Especially on the backside of what is likely to be an emotional weekend of some sort in StL.

SirFelixCat
08-30-2010, 11:58 AM
5-5 is acceptable, imo. Anything better is fantastic. I expect 2 of 3 vs Mil, 1 of 3 (but hoping like hell it's 2 of 3...and if, by some way, the Reds find a way to sweep, I'd feel comfortable printing playoff tix!!!) in St. Louis and a split here in Denver.

Going to all 4 of the Reds games here in Denver. My wife has never seen the Reds win, in person. 3 game sweep in LA 2 years ago and 3 game sweep here last year. This year, it all changes! :thumbup:

Ghosts of 1990
08-30-2010, 12:10 PM
What's wrong with me? I'm insanely paranoid. You'd think we were 5 back right now with the way I feel about our chances.... I don't know, I've seen too many of my teams let it slip over the years. I'm worried about Milwaukee tonight.

Degenerate39
08-30-2010, 12:12 PM
How about the next 10 games for the Cards?

Roy Tucker
08-30-2010, 12:17 PM
Still, I won't count my chickens until they're hatched.



Indeed. The baseball gods frown up those who practice that. The historical landscape is littered with the victims.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/multimedia/photo_gallery/0609/gallery.mlb.collapse/content.1.html

_Sir_Charles_
08-30-2010, 12:43 PM
I guess I'm just greedy. I want a 10 game winning streak. I don't want us to "settle" for 6 wins. I want home field advantage throughout the NL playoffs. Oh yeah, I also want a new pony. :cool:

I(heart)Freel
08-30-2010, 12:51 PM
My "road to 91 wins" spreadsheet (as predicted on Aug 5) calls for 5 wins over this stretch.

I maintain that it's difficult to do anything but split a 4-game series, against any opponent. The baseball gods are like Mr. Miyagi. They respect balance.

WebScorpion
08-30-2010, 03:16 PM
I guess I'm just greedy. I want a 10 game winning streak. I don't want us to "settle" for 6 wins. I want home field advantage throughout the NL playoffs. Oh yeah, I also want a new pony. :cool:That's what I'm talking about! It's time to see what this team can do when Bruce and Stubbs are hot at the same time as Rolen and Votto...add in a well-rested Phillips and Cabrera and steamroll the competition. I'm ready to see a sweep of the stumbling Cardinals in their own house and a 10 game lead by the time the dust settles! But I don't think it will happen. In fact, in the back of my mind I secretly hope the Cards are still fairly close at the end of the season. I don't think this is a team that can rest its starters down the stretch and come out firing on all cylinders. They NEED the competition to keep them sharp. No matter what, I'm looking forward to watching 10 games that matter and a bunch more after them! GO REDS!!!
http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-bounce015.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-bounce013.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-bounce017.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-bounce017.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-bounce013.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-bounce015.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)

Ghosts of 1990
08-30-2010, 03:21 PM
I swear it's going to come right down to the end, still.

It's not that far-fetched to think the Cardinals would be 6 games better than us from today until the end of the season.

Things that combat that from happening would be Joey Votto continuing to be a monster and Jay Bruce remaining hot. Homer Bailey throwing like he did down the stretch last season.

Homer Bailey
08-30-2010, 03:26 PM
I swear it's going to come right down to the end, still.

It's not that far-fetched to think the Cardinals would be 6 games better than us from today until the end of the season.

Things that combat that from happening would be Joey Votto continuing to be a monster and Jay Bruce remaining hot. Homer Bailey throwing like he did down the stretch last season.

Aside from April, the Reds have consistently been way better than the Cardinals for the better part of an entire year now. I find the Cardinals chances to be very, very slim if they don't sweep the Reds this weekend. If the Reds somehow take 2 of 3, I think it's time to print some playoff tickets.

Just my opinion.

redsmetz
08-30-2010, 03:38 PM
I swear it's going to come right down to the end, still.

It's not that far-fetched to think the Cardinals would be 6 games better than us from today until the end of the season.

Things that combat that from happening would be Joey Votto continuing to be a monster and Jay Bruce remaining hot. Homer Bailey throwing like he did down the stretch last season.

It's not unheard of for complete collapses to occur which is why I'm not tempting fate, but we'd have to go 14-18 the rest of the way while the Cardinals go 21-13 for them to beat us by one game. That's daunting. Still I won't feel secure until it's clinched.

SunDeck
08-30-2010, 03:39 PM
I guess I'm just greedy. I want a 10 game winning streak. I don't want us to "settle" for 6 wins. I want home field advantage throughout the NL playoffs. Oh yeah, I also want a new pony. :cool:

Nothing wrong with that- I'm rooting for the ten game winning streak, myself.

http://blogstruk.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/09/VerucaSalt.jpg

medford
08-30-2010, 06:14 PM
Yeah, I'd be thrilled with 6 out of these next 10. Thrilled.

Just not counting on it.

Those Three to end the stretch at home vs Florida and the 10 game west coast road trip are ill-timed. Especially on the backside of what is likely to be an emotional weekend of some sort in StL.

FTFY, only to highlight that this team has continually rebounded from tough defeats, tough series, long odds, etc....to post just 1 game short of having the best record in the entire NL. Not just the best record in the NL central, the best record in the entire NL. This team has been good all year, and I think it shows how long its been since this team has won anything of significance, how many times the rug has pulled out from under our feet sometime around mid June (or mother's day some years :thumbdown) by the lack of confidence in this team from its own fan base. I'll admit, I'm as guilty as the next guy in thinking that the next series is going to show the chink in the armor, or the last loss is a sign that the team is on the skids, and watch out here comes the cardinals.

They'll get Ubaldo the day following the cards series, unless the Rockies bump him up on short rest in the next week (don't remember who they play to know if this would be 'worth' it to them or not), but if you take the last 3 games, plus the next 3 series in comparision to what the Cards face over that same 2 week stretch and a good showing this week, combined w/ a continued pace will have this thing all but wrapped up with 2 weeks left in the season. I'll let myself get out over my skis a bit, I've tumbled enough to know the fall only stings until next spring, but sometimes the ride is too beautiful not to get caught up in the moment.

Scrap Irony
08-30-2010, 06:15 PM
Nice, medford.

If they go .500, I'm happy.

membengal
08-30-2010, 06:32 PM
FTFY, only to highlight that this team has continually rebounded from tough defeats, tough series, long odds, etc....to post just 1 game short of having the best record in the entire NL. Not just the best record in the NL central, the best record in the entire NL. This team has been good all year, and I think it shows how long its been since this team has won anything of significance, how many times the rug has pulled out from under our feet sometime around mid June (or mother's day some years :thumbdown) by the lack of confidence in this team from its own fan base. I'll admit, I'm as guilty as the next guy in thinking that the next series is going to show the chink in the armor, or the last loss is a sign that the team is on the skids, and watch out here comes the cardinals.

They'll get Ubaldo the day following the cards series, unless the Rockies bump him up on short rest in the next week (don't remember who they play to know if this would be 'worth' it to them or not), but if you take the last 3 games, plus the next 3 series in comparision to what the Cards face over that same 2 week stretch and a good showing this week, combined w/ a continued pace will have this thing all but wrapped up with 2 weeks left in the season. I'll let myself get out over my skis a bit, I've tumbled enough to know the fall only stings until next spring, but sometimes the ride is too beautiful not to get caught up in the moment.

For the record, I am not predicting doom. Just noting that the degree of difficulty on this next set remains high. If you read the "Kudos for Dusty" thread I started ( http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=84819&highlight=Dusty) after the rebound following the last StL series, you would have noted that I am certainly impressed with what has been a season-long ability of this team to pick itself up and dust itself off.

That said, I don't think hoping for a .500 record in this stretch is doom-y either. Just allowing for the fact that seven of the ten games are on the road against teams as desperate, and probably more so, than the Reds are. And Colorado is a handful at Coors. And tack on that we have to deal with Reds killer Randy Wolf followed by Gallardo to start the set vs. Milwaukee.

These games are going to be hard. I am sure the Reds will do everything they can to be successful in them, but it is a stretch that causes me concern about as much as that 10-game west coast swing did. Probably more so, since there are not three against Arizona scattered in.

If the Reds tread water at .500 over the next ten, they will be at 80-60 with 22 left to play, and will be in prime position to get to 93 wins. And what ought to be a playoff berth. If the Reds go 7-3 over this next stretch, I think they can start printing playoff tickets.

I guess I apologize to the board if this thread looks like "lack of confidence" in the Reds. That wasn't my intent in highlighting this next set of games. My apologies if that's what the tone read like in the initial post or any reply I've made herein. My bad.

redsmetz
08-30-2010, 08:29 PM
These games are going to be hard. I am sure the Reds will do everything they can to be successful in them, but it is a stretch that causes me concern about as much as that 10-game west coast swing did. Probably more so, since there are not three against Arizona scattered in.

If the Reds tread water at .500 over the next ten, they will be at 80-60 with 22 left to play, and will be in prime position to get to 93 wins. And what ought to be a playoff berth. If the Reds go 7-3 over this next stretch, I think they can start printing playoff tickets.

I guess I apologize to the board if this thread looks like "lack of confidence" in the Reds. That wasn't my intent in highlighting this next set of games. My apologies if that's what the tone read like in the initial post or any reply I've made herein. My bad.

This thread didn't strike me as a "lack of confidence." Rather, you named it as concern. I share that concern and its the reason I'm cautiously optimistic that the baseball gods may notice our success and throw down a lightning bolt. But i like where we are and look for us to just keep winning whatever games we do.

membengal
08-31-2010, 12:43 AM
Just a delightful start to the stretch, with 2 out of 3 the hope against Milwaukee, getting the lid lifter against Wolf (Reds killer) was key. Now, even though the pitching match-up of Harang v. Gallardo doesn't look favorable for game 2, it's almost a playing with house money game, with Cueto waiting in the series finale.

cincrazy
08-31-2010, 12:59 AM
Following the 7-game road trip, the Reds get the Pirates and Dbacks at home, and the Astros and Brewers on the road. A set at San Diego follows, then a return trip home to play the Astros and Brewers to wrap up the season. We get through these next nine games, it's easy sailing the rest of the way.

medford
08-31-2010, 09:41 AM
For the record, I am not predicting doom. Just noting that the degree of difficulty on this next set remains high. If you read the "Kudos for Dusty" thread I started ( http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=84819&highlight=Dusty) after the rebound following the last StL series, you would have noted that I am certainly impressed with what has been a season-long ability of this team to pick itself up and dust itself off.

I guess I apologize to the board if this thread looks like "lack of confidence" in the Reds. That wasn't my intent in highlighting this next set of games. My apologies if that's what the tone read like in the initial post or any reply I've made herein. My bad.

Sorry, didn't mean to imply that you lacked confidence or predicted gloom. Its not just you, its a lot of people on this board (myself included at times) that keep saying this next set of games is huge. And while its true that each series is big, I think many have forgotten what its like to be in a playoff chase where every series is big. This season is a lot of fun, I'd just hate for some to keep looking ahead to the next hurdle that they forget to enjoy the ride they're on.

redsmetz
08-31-2010, 09:47 AM
I think for me, I'm really holding back on any giddiness, trying to temper my excitement. Bobby Thomson passing away has me spooked. He's like a symbol, a player that capped off one of the great comebacks (and the Dodgers collapse) with perhaps the most famous home run. I won't relax until we've clinched. Then it will be dancing in the streets.

membengal
09-01-2010, 12:05 AM
Maybe the most satisfying win of the season tonite, given Chapman's debut, the hitting, the fielding from Votto and Rolen, and finally some MVP chants from the crowd.

2-0 on this stretch, and have won the house money game.

Just a fun night to be a Reds fan.

IslandRed
09-01-2010, 01:25 AM
I think for me, I'm really holding back on any giddiness, trying to temper my excitement. Bobby Thomson passing away has me spooked. He's like a symbol, a player that capped off one of the great comebacks (and the Dodgers collapse) with perhaps the most famous home run. I won't relax until we've clinched. Then it will be dancing in the streets.

Thomson symbolized a Giants comeback and a Dodgers collapse.

The Giants are five back of San Diego, and the Padres are springing leaks all of a sudden. Down in L.A., the McCourt divorce trial is starting. If there's a parallel to be found, it's more likely to be in one of those places. :cool:

membengal
09-01-2010, 11:21 PM
Now there's a nice start to this stretch. 3-0 against the Brewers and more Chapman goodness.

An almost inconveivable 8-game lead heading into StL. Amazed that worst case they are sitll up five on Monday.

Take two of three though...

membengal
09-04-2010, 10:05 PM
Bump.

4-1 on this stretch so far, and I could not be happier with the poise and attention to the task at hand this team is showing.

Ron Madden
09-05-2010, 09:02 PM
The Reds are 4-2 six games into this 10 game stretch.

I'd love to see the Reds take 3 of 4 from the Rockies but I'll settle for a split.

traderumor
09-05-2010, 09:06 PM
Realistically, all the Reds need to be in any 10 game stretch at this point is 5-5. One win in Colorado accomplishes that.

The Cards will really have to make a complete 180 from the way this season has gone to do well in their next 7. They have their 4 & 5 starter going 2 of 3 in Milwaukee and 4 in Atlanta. The Cards have been miserable on the road. While the hammer did not drop this weekend, it may very well next with us hosting the Pirates.

membengal
09-06-2010, 09:45 AM
Very pleased with where the team sits at this point in the stretch, all things considered.

Don't like today's pitching match-up (Ubaldo v. Harang) but hopfully the match-ups beyond that tilt back in our favor. The other problem is the Rockies are scorching hot right now and are extremely hard to deal with at Coors.

A split would be great from where I sit, but trade is right, 1 of these 4 gets them out of this stretch at .500 which was my hope as they headed into it.

As for St. Louis, their loading up for Cincy means they have the soft underbelly of their staff exposed for Milwaukee's offense to take aim at in the first two games in Milwaukee. Just sayin'...

SirFelixCat
09-06-2010, 10:49 PM
I'm serious here...can we get a sticky for this thread until the Col. series is over, please?


All this "zOMG the sky is falling" crap around this place is, well, out-of-control. The Reds have increased their lead over St. Louis this week, yet, it's all doom and gloom. Maybe a dose of cold water (ie. this thread) might help some people chill @ here.


Just a thought.

membengal
09-06-2010, 10:57 PM
Yup, big picture, they are handling this stretch well in my view. Get one of the next three and they come out of the stretch 5-5, which was my baseline hope.

Two of the next three and its 6-4. And they are through the Wolf/Gallardo/Garcia/Wainwright/Carpenter/Ubaldo stretch. Look at that pitching line-up again, that's murderous. A bunch of Reds killers in there, not to mention true aces. And they are 4-3 so far in that stretch (Narverson the only alleged cupcake, and he was pretty nails in his start). And have done this mostly without Bruce. And with two Harang starts scattered in...

All in all, it could be a lot worse.

Cedric
09-06-2010, 11:01 PM
Yup, big picture, they are handling this stretch well in my view. Get one of the next three and they come out of the stretch 5-5, which was my baseline hope.

Two of the next three and its 6-4. And they are through the Wolf/Gallardo/Garcia/Wainwright/Carpenter/Ubaldo stretch. Look at that pitching line-up again, that's murderous. A bunch of Reds killers in there, not to mention true aces. And they are 4-3 so far in that stretch (Narverson the only alleged cupcake, and he was pretty nails in his start). And have done this mostly without Bruce. And with two Harang starts scattered in...

All in all, it could be a lot worse.

I don't really worry about who we are facing on the hill. I worry about who the Reds have pitching.

The starting staff is the biggest problem this team has. Hopefully we have a big enough lead to hold on.

edabbs44
09-06-2010, 11:08 PM
I'm serious here...can we get a sticky for this thread until the Col. series is over, please?


All this "zOMG the sky is falling" crap around this place is, well, out-of-control. The Reds have increased their lead over St. Louis this week, yet, it's all doom and gloom. Maybe a dose of cold water (ie. this thread) might help some people chill @ here.


Just a thought.

The way this season has gone, all won't be well for some until the team has won the WS. If they don't make the playoffs, it will be because ___ played too much, or ___ didn't play enough, or ___ mismanaged the bullpen in ___ game, etc. If they lose in the ___ round, it will be because of ___'s role in the game.

For some it seems that a big part of their fandom it isn't about rooting for the guys on the field, it's rooting for the team in spite of certain people. Whenever a shot can be taken at ___, it happens. No matter what the thread, discussion or how they are doing on the field.

It's kind of sad.

membengal
09-06-2010, 11:11 PM
I don't really worry about who we are facing on the hill. I worry about who the Reds have pitching.

The starting staff is the biggest problem this team has. Hopefully we have a big enough lead to hold on.

Against those six pitchers, it is going to be difficult to match up. The Reds were 3-3 in the games started by Wolf/Gallardo/Garcia/Wainwright/Carpenter/Ubaldo and took the Narverson game (thanks for lifting him, Macha!).

I am cool with .500 in games started by those six and winning the "other" game.

Reds are doing fine in this stretch so far. Need to finish off with another win in the next three and then come home.

edabbs44
09-06-2010, 11:22 PM
I love the Reds schedule from here on out. If they fold they have no one to blame but themselves. 25 games left and 13 are with Pitt, Arizona and Houston. Another 6 versus Milwaukee. Pitt, Arz and Milwaukee represent the 3 worst pitching staffs in the NL.

Baker could hit Gomes leadoff and put him in CF every game, he could start Cordero and close with Harang, he could hit Votto 9th for all I care. If they are meant for the playoffs, they need to take these teams down and control their destiny.

OnBaseMachine
09-08-2010, 12:36 AM
Right now, it's looking like the Reds will be lucky to escape Colorado with one win. Baserunning blunders, errors, stranding tons of runners. Is there anything more overrated than the Reds ability to run the bases? The first to third stuff is nice, but their baserunning as a whole has been underwhelming, IMO. Two of the Reds losses on this road trip were by one run, and in both games the Reds made costly baserunning mistakes. Gomes on Friday night in St. Louis and Phillips tonight. It's hard to win when you're giving away 2-3 outs on the bases a night.

Thank goodness for the Cardinals loss tonight. Hopefully they continue losing because right now the Reds are playing bad baseball.

Griffey012
09-08-2010, 12:43 AM
Right now, it's looking like the Reds will be lucky to escape Colorado with one win. Baserunning blunders, errors, stranding tons of runners. Is there anything more overrated than the Reds ability to run the bases? The first to third stuff is nice, but their baserunning as a whole has been underwhelming, IMO. Two of the Reds losses on this road trip were by one run, and in both games the Reds made costly baserunning mistakes. Gomes on Friday night in St. Louis and Phillips tonight. It's hard to win when you're giving away 2-3 outs on the bases a night.

Thank goodness for the Cardinals loss tonight. Hopefully they continue losing because right now the Reds are playing bad baseball.

You are going to have outs given away with how aggressive the Reds are on the bases. But I have a strong feeling the extra runs they create by taking all the extra bases they have been taking outweigh the times they get caught.

If we want to magnify an overly aggressive base running error, we can't skip past our GG 2nd basemen booting a ball that led to a run.

traderumor
09-08-2010, 12:45 AM
Take the last 2 and we go 6-4 in this run of ten games. Worst we do is 4-6. Our closest competitor is 3-7 in their last ten.

OnBaseMachine
09-08-2010, 12:46 AM
If we want to magnify an overly aggressive base running error, we can't skip past our GG 2nd basemen booting a ball that led to a run.

I mentioned the error. That was a routine play, not sure what happened there. I'm a big Brandon Phillips fan but what a brutal night he had. Costly error, costly baserunning mistake, and grounded into a double play.

Mario-Rijo
09-08-2010, 12:46 AM
Right now, it's looking like the Reds will be lucky to escape Colorado with one win. Baserunning blunders, errors, stranding tons of runners. Is there anything more overrated than the Reds ability to run the bases? The first to third stuff is nice, but their baserunning as a whole has been underwhelming, IMO. Two of the Reds losses on this road trip were by one run, and in both games the Reds made costly baserunning mistakes. Gomes on Friday night in St. Louis and Phillips tonight. It's hard to win when you're giving away 2-3 outs on the bases a night.

Thank goodness for the Cardinals loss tonight. Hopefully they continue losing because right now the Reds are playing bad baseball.

I don't think their baserunning is overrated they just have to be a smidge more cautious now because people know they are gonna take the extra base when they can. Brandon was safe anyhow, but the defensive miscues are annoying. But Brandon is swinging the bat like the Brandon of old right now and we need him getting on base and just generally grinding out AB's. He's hacktastic right now.

Even more annoying than that though is the lack of inside pitching, alot of these Rockies need to be pitched inside, just giving them all the opportunities to extend their arms. And it won't get any easier for Bronson tomorrow he is not the greatest vs. LHH and being a flyball pitcher there isn't good.

membengal
09-08-2010, 12:48 AM
1 of the next 2 gets them to 5-5 in this stretch.

And back home with the very worst of the schedule behind them.

mth123
09-08-2010, 02:37 AM
Right now, it's looking like the Reds will be lucky to escape Colorado with one win. Baserunning blunders, errors, stranding tons of runners. Is there anything more overrated than the Reds ability to run the bases? The first to third stuff is nice, but their baserunning as a whole has been underwhelming, IMO. Two of the Reds losses on this road trip were by one run, and in both games the Reds made costly baserunning mistakes. Gomes on Friday night in St. Louis and Phillips tonight. It's hard to win when you're giving away 2-3 outs on the bases a night.

Thank goodness for the Cardinals loss tonight. Hopefully they continue losing because right now the Reds are playing bad baseball.

Agree, The 1st to third stuff is not really all that special. Teams have been doing that stuff for years. Most teams don't make as many outs on the bases that the Reds do. The times picked-off and caught stealing are mind boggling. The running game should be restricted to the 6, 7 and 8 holes. Guys making outs in front of Votto and Rolen all the time is just crazy. Phillips and Votto are the primary offenders in this area IMO. Gomes is iffy and lots of others make blunders. At least Dickerson is gone. He was an absolute dunderhead on the bases.

Cyclone792
09-08-2010, 09:06 AM
This current road trip is a classic case of why sweeping Milwaukee was so big. Not that I'm content with the Reds getting their teeth kicked in on this current trip, but the Brewers sweep gave them a bit more breathing room.

That much being said, I still really want a series split in Colorado. Win the final two games, and I'll be content. If the Reds get swept, however, I'll probably start getting a tad nervous.

Griffey012
09-08-2010, 10:01 AM
Take the last 2 and we go 6-4 in this run of ten games. Worst we do is 4-6. Our closest competitor is 3-7 in their last ten.

It's amazing how much our expectations have been risen this year. I almost didn't believe those number when I read them.

Reds Freak
09-08-2010, 10:21 AM
Agree, The 1st to third stuff is not really all that special. Teams have been doing that stuff for years. Most teams don't make as many outs on the bases that the Reds do. The times picked-off and caught stealing are mind boggling. The running game should be restricted to the 6, 7 and 8 holes. Guys making outs in front of Votto and Rolen all the time is just crazy. Phillips and Votto are the primary offenders in this area IMO. Gomes is iffy and lots of others make blunders. At least Dickerson is gone. He was an absolute dunderhead on the bases.

I disagree. The first to third stuff is special and is VERY important. They won a game a few weeks ago when Heisey went first to third and Fukodume threw it in the dugout. That stuff matters. It might not be quantifiable, but it's important and a big part of this team's game and success.

Brandon had a miserable game, but his baserunning 'error' was not one of his mistakes. It was an aggressive play and took a perfect throw to get him. CarGo just threw one to home that was half way up the first base line in the previous inning, I'm okay with testing that arm.

westofyou
09-08-2010, 10:56 AM
Reds are very aggressive on the bases, it shows as a plus BR stat, a negative steal stat. But the CS and PO kill the Reds (as does doofs trying to emulate other guys)



Team Baserunning Analysis

The entire team’s overall contribution on the bases; their basestealing, avoidance of the double play, and success at taking the extra base while avoiding being thrown out.

BR Gain (or Loss if a negative number) is the total of all the types of extra baserunning advances minus the (triple) penalty for all the BR Outs compared with what would be expected based on the MLB averages. Zero is average. Plus numbers are above average and negative numbers are below average.

SB Gain - Stolen Base attempts must be successful greater than about two thirds of the time to have a positive result on the number of runs scored.

For a summary of each runner, look at the far right column called "Net Gain". It combines BR Gain and SB Gain.




1st to 3rd 2nd to Home 1st to Home DP Bases BR BR SB Net

Year Adv Opp Adv Opp Adv Opp Opp GIDP Taken Outs Gain Gain Gain
2010 89 282 110 175 43 72 991 92 124 48 -9 +2 -7

membengal
09-09-2010, 07:31 AM
Sanguine.

Cyclone is right, the sweep of Milwaukee was key, because it gave the Reds some room for error on this nasty road trip. Man, do I ever hate playing in Colorado. But not as much as the Reds do, apparently.

Still have hope that they find a way to win today and get to 5-5 in this stretch, which was my baseline hope.

ETA: And not having Bruce (and to a lesser extent Nix) through this stretch has been a significant problem for the team. Badly timed injuries given the succession of right-handers they have faced in St. Louis and Colorado.

traderumor
09-09-2010, 09:07 AM
A win today makes it a 5-5 run. Although hard to watch a losing streak, it doesn't matter what order they win them in, and they have been in "just need to go .500" mode for a couple of weeks.

With that said, what goes on in Coors Field is not MLB. It's like a time capsule for the Steroid Era style of play :thumbdown

OnBaseMachine
09-09-2010, 07:12 PM
Epic fail by the Reds. That's about the only way I can describe it. I highly doubt Wainwright loses again tonight, so the Reds lead will more than likely be down to five games. We'll soon find out if this is a full meltdown. Anything less than 5-2 against the Pirates and DBacks would be a huge disappointent.

I've never seen a team blow so many big leads in one season. This is almost unbelievable. Five run leads, six run leads, nine runs leads. No lead is safe with this team.

membengal
09-09-2010, 07:13 PM
Rats.

But, big picture, the 4-6 was not a disaster (even though it feels like it to fans). I think, when they embarked on this stretch of games, they were up 5 in the standings.

And, pending the outcome of tonite's game in Atlanta, they will come off this stretch of games up 5 in the standings.

If Atlanta and Jurrjens steps to Wainwright, then they come home one game better than they were to start this stretch.

Yes, they could have put away the division, and missed that chance. But they at least didn't see the lead collapse either.

Just glad they are coming home and that 10-game set is behind them.

membengal
09-09-2010, 07:14 PM
Epic fail by the Reds. That's about the only way I can describe it. I highly doubt Wainwright loses again tonight, so the Reds lead will more than likely be down to five games. We'll soon find out if this is a full meltdown. Anything less than 5-2 against the Pirates and DBacks would be a huge disappointent.

I've never seen a team blow so many big leads in one season. This is almost unbelievable. Five run leads, six run leads, nine runs leads. No lead is safe with this team.

I think it's not quite that dire, OBM! See the post right after yours, I think, big picture, holding serve while playing as badly as they just did is not half bad.

Hope that getting home snaps them out of their funk.

westofyou
09-09-2010, 07:15 PM
18 games above .500 and 5.5 in front of the Cards on 9/9

Only FCB could see that as bad.

membengal
09-09-2010, 07:17 PM
18 games above .500 and 5.5 in front of the Cards on 9/9

Only FCB could see that as bad.

Yup, the big picture is still just fine.

This stretch looked like a potential problem, it was, but life and games go on.

At some point Bruce will be back (and Nix) and that will be most welcome.

membengal
09-09-2010, 07:19 PM
Rats.

But, big picture, the 4-6 was not a disaster (even though it feels like it to fans). I think, when they embarked on this stretch of games, they were up 5 in the standings.

And, pending the outcome of tonite's game in Atlanta, they will come off this stretch of games up 5 in the standings.

If Atlanta and Jurrjens steps to Wainwright, then they come home one game better than they were to start this stretch.

Yes, they could have put away the division, and missed that chance. But they at least didn't see the lead collapse either.

Just glad they are coming home and that 10-game set is behind them.

Bumping myself (bad form, I know) so this doesn't get lost at the end of the last page.

If, every 10 games from here to the end of the season they hold serve against the Cardinals, they make the playoffs comfortably...

Phhhl
09-09-2010, 08:06 PM
4-6 is not a disaster.

CarolinaRedleg
09-09-2010, 08:14 PM
4-6 isn't a disaster. The thud, however, is a bit more troubling.

Let's hope the Pirates and D'Backs cure what ails us.

The Operator
09-09-2010, 10:01 PM
4-6 is not a disaster.No, but 1-6 could certainly qualify as such.

It looks as if the lead is going down to 5 games tonight. I know it's irrational but the 5 games really doesn't feel that great to me right now. Not after being up 8 with a chance to slam the door. I just hope they get the ship righted starting tomorrow.