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redssince75
08-30-2010, 01:38 PM
Do you believe in the concept of "due"? I'm pretty sure those who follow patterns closely for a living -- say, professional gamblers -- don't really. But having watched sports for 40 years, I often do get a cosmic sense that someone is "due". This applies much less to a full team than an individual, because if you have numerous athlete's different versions of "due" all interplaying at the same time, it can be very difficult to figure out what the collective "due" (the team's "due") really is.

But after Cueto's bad outing coming off suspension (totally predictable), I figured he was "due" for a good game the next time out. He was.

After Woods' several good outings in his rookie year, I figured he was "due" for a couple of bad ones. He was.

Jay Bruce for sure has some talent...damn he was "due" to break out. And he did. (Of course, he may have been "due" a month ago and didn't do it, arguing against the concept of of "due").

Wainwright has lost 2 in a row. I figure he is "due" against us on Friday night. I expect him to have a CY-type outing.

Current evidence for the flip side -- Tim Lincecum has won the last 2 CY but has lost his last 5 with a terrible ERA. Clearly, something is going on. Seems like he would have been "due" to get back on track 2 or 3 games ago, but he hasn't.

What do you think about "due"?

zacharync
08-30-2010, 01:48 PM
I think it provides a good basis for some armchair psychology.

I think a good example of this is when you have a hitter who is striking the ball well but just happens to continually hit it at a defender. This is player is certainly "Due" to start getting some hits. Talent trumps all IMO.

I am sure there are other examples in sports and in life.

I agree with you that it is really only applicable to individuals as opposed to groups/teams.

GIDP
08-30-2010, 01:50 PM
I think numbers tend to even out. To suggest someone in a slump is due is wrong, but expecting a hot streak after a slump isnt. 2 different things

If someone is a .300 hitter and goes 0-20 you would believe that at some point hes going to go 10-10 or something close to that.

It's often has a lot to do with BABIP in baseball. The number tends to even out.

Vottomatic
08-30-2010, 03:13 PM
I always think I'm "due" to win the lottery and it never happens.

gmt
08-30-2010, 03:50 PM
You can only be "due" if you are have lately been much better than usual or much worse. That also means you have to have had a certain amount of experience at the level you are playing. Things even out over the long run but tempered by age (younger getting more experienced or stronger tend to get better vs older starting to lose it tend to get worse). Due is also influenced by the intensity that a player brings to the specific game. You think every player gets up for every game vs ones against their key opponent? Player get paid millions of dollars, but many I would say have numerous intensity lapses a lot of the time.

scott91575
08-30-2010, 03:59 PM
Depends on lots of factors. For a pitcher like Wood, it only makes sense he is not going to be a 2.5 ERA pitcher.

I wouldn't really call Cueto's last outing "due." More like the one before it was an anomaly. I consider someone "due" after an extended period of good or bad play.

For most it's just reverting back to the norm. Like saying Jonny Gomes was due to go into a slump. It's simply prior knowledge of how they normally perform, and statistically speaking players often return back to their career numbers (not adjusting for age and other circumstances).

BTW...with Lincecum, he is tipping his pitches. When playing the DBacks they showed Dback players discussing his motion, and when a player was on 2nd base he was sending signals home (it was actually pretty obvious). Something by the way he sets up in the stretch is giving away his pitches.

Krawhitham
08-30-2010, 04:11 PM
Gomes must be "due" to have the best September by a MLB player in history

Rockermann
08-30-2010, 04:28 PM
Gomes must be "due" to have the best September by a MLB player in history

We can only hope.

webbbj
08-30-2010, 04:28 PM
a player can be. if a pitcher is locating his pitches well not giving up walks etc. they can sometimes have bad outings as a result of running bad. for example they give up a bloop hit, then an infield single, followed by grounder that goes through the infield then a batter comes up hits a "pitcher's pitch" for a HR and all of a sudden they just through 30+ pitches have done nothing wrong and are down 4-0.

for a hitter its hitting line drives right to pple and then getting bloop singles.

power hitters and pitchers can negate the luck factor in baseball a lot by getting a larger % of outs w/ Ks and hitters getting a larger % of their hits by hitting the gaps or hitting HRs.

generally if a player plays bad their results wont change until they fix something and if a players is playing well the results usually will be positive.

basically i would say a player playing poorly b/c of bad fundamentals or mechanics is not due and player who is swinging at the right pitches, hitting them well or pitcher w/ good location but not getting the right result is due.

gmt
08-30-2010, 04:28 PM
Joey Votto is an example of younger getting better vs "due". His power has been getting better along with average and rbi. If you based his current stats on his first year, you would say he is due for a slump in September to even things out. It looks like he has not yet established his "average" numbers to determine what you should expect.

UPRedsFan
08-30-2010, 05:11 PM
I do think "due" applies to teams sometimes.

Often when I look at who the Reds are facing next I look to see what they've just done in their last 5 or 6 games. If they've lost 6 in a row, it worries me that they are "due" to win a couple. Usually teams don't lose that many in a row. If they've won 6 in a row, I feel better about our chances. What are the chances a team could win 9 in a row playing us for the last 3?

It's sort of like BABIP. Based on past performance if a team is playing below or above capability they may be "due". You wouldn't expect the Pirates to win 9 in a row or even 6 in a row. And you wouldn't expect the Phillies to lose 6 in a row. So in either case the team could be "due"

gmt
08-30-2010, 05:34 PM
Teams who are due: Cardinals if you judge over the past couple weeks. Reds if you judge over the past couple of weeks.

You just have to hope that "due" happens after you see them if the team you're playing has lost several in a row. You also hope "due" doesn't happen if you are on a winning streak until next season.

Just make it to the playoffs and win your last game. It's simple.

nmculbreth
08-30-2010, 05:39 PM
I think this probably applies:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

gmt
08-30-2010, 05:59 PM
I think this probably applies:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

It would probably be fair though to say if a team has been losing or winning a lot, more than usual, that over the next several games they have the probablility of playing better (to their standard). So the trend will always favor changing of the trend in some fashion, at least in a small sample size. Coin tossing is not the same as there is no talent pool that gives a legal coin a better chance to come up heads of tails. With sports teams, some are better thus "loading" the trends towards winning more often than losing. With a losing streak, that better thanj .500 team that should be winning more can be expected to reverse the trend of losing and start winning more than half of their games. Factors that cannot be predicted are injuries (reducing the loading effect) and performance not equal to supposed established value (a player(s) has a down year versus career numbers). Then there is momentum (or motivation, excitement, whatever you call the intangible difference that drives a team to play over or under it's supposed expectation). The Reds are playing over according to preseason standards. The longer they play "over" the more it is recognized as standard. By next season, it may be expected they win the central division. If they don't, then they are trending underb expectations. But as long as there are expectations, when losing, they will always be considered to be "due". Right now the Pirates are not considered to be due to win very often because they have been trending down for several seasons. Sad to think a .500 season would be considered a monumental accomplishment.

New York Red
08-30-2010, 06:00 PM
I think the word "due" is just another way of saying the law of averages eventually prevails. And "due" varies, depending on how good any given player, team, etc, is. A .300 hitter would be "due" to break out of a slump sooner than a .240 hitter would be, and a .600 team would be "due" to end a losing streak sooner than a .400 team would. If Joey Votto goes hitless in five straight PA's, I feel he's already due to get a hit. If Gomes slumps for months, as he is now, I think he's "due" also, but I don't expect his slump to end at any specific time because maybe he just isn't that good a hitter.

texasdave
08-30-2010, 06:05 PM
Reds are "overdue" for a playoff appearance.

gmt
08-30-2010, 06:08 PM
I think you need to establish what is expected first. For players that usually means a few years (3 or 4 at least?) to see where the typical will be. Votto is still trending upward, although he is approaching numbers that normally don't get any higher. For teams, it's just a crap-shoot. Player come and go, injuries upset the balance, older players stop playing at their usual hgh level and younger either show they belong or not. Keeping the core of a team healthy and happy is the toughest job these days. Good players on teams like the Reds go to better paying teams eventually. Players are not required to stay with their original teams and seek as any of us would do a higher paycheck if it makes sense. How much will Votto command when he is eligible to get full price on a contract negotiation? Home town discounts don't happen very often.

nmculbreth
08-30-2010, 06:19 PM
I think the word "due" is just another way of saying the law of averages eventually prevails. And "due" varies, depending on how good any given player, team, etc, is. A .300 hitter would be "due" to break out of a slump sooner than a .240 hitter would be, and a .600 team would be "due" to end a losing streak sooner than a .400 team would. If Joey Votto goes hitless in five straight PA's, I feel he's already due to get a hit. If Gomes slumps for months, as he is now, I think he's "due" also, but I don't expect his slump to end at any specific time because maybe he just isn't that good a hitter.

I think it is perfectly fair to say that over the course of a large sample size players will likely end up finishing up fairly close to the mean of their skill set.

For example if Joey Votto were to start out next season 0 for 6, it is much safer to bet that he'll finish the season up as a .300 hitter than to bet that he'll get a hit in his 7th AB.

Quite simply the fact that he was unable to get a hit in his previous six ABs doesn't change the likelihood that he's going to get a hit a hit in his 7th AB because each AB is a completely different event.

Vottomatic
08-30-2010, 06:31 PM
I've noticed lately that the people on the Sundeck like to discuss the meaning of words. Last week, it was the meaning of "elite".

This week the word is "due".

What is the word for next week? Hopefully, not beatdown. (unless we're the ones giving it)

Krawhitham
09-01-2010, 08:34 PM
Well crap

The Reds are due to lose a couple games
The Cards are due to win a couple games
HgH is due to start hitting again

I would not be surprised if they sweep the Reds again

But the Reds will still be 4-5 games up if it happens