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corkedbat
09-01-2010, 12:46 AM
Before the season started, I was hoping the Reds would be able to sign Joey to a contract along the lines of 4years/$32M. What are MVP/Triple Crown/GoldGlove first basemen who lead their team to the playoffs for the first time in years going for these days? :D

Sea Ray
09-01-2010, 12:47 AM
Great problem to have...

Brutus
09-01-2010, 12:48 AM
Before the season started, I was hoping the Reds would be able to sign Joey to a contract along the lines of 4years/$32M. What are MVP/Triple Crown/GoldGlove first basemen who lead their team to the playoffs for the first time in years going for these days? :D

I honestly feel 5 for 40 is a good starting point.

nemesis
09-01-2010, 12:50 AM
What are MVP/Triple Crown/Gold Glove first basemen who lead their team to the playoffs for the first time in years going for there days?

Lol...

Well if fat, range lacking, shaky glove, non meat eating 1B go for 20 Million...

I say just break the bank and do it.

6/100.

Lattes and Designer Shirts aren't cheap.

corkedbat
09-01-2010, 12:55 AM
Lol...

Well if fat, range lacking, shaky glove, non meat eating 1B go for 20 Million...

I say just break the bank and do it.

6/100.

Lattes and Designer Shirts aren't cheap.

Heather will pony up half.

Caveat Emperor
09-01-2010, 01:00 AM
I'm hoping that they'll find the money to lock up Votto from a combination of contracts coming off the books (looking your way, Aaron Harang) and a swell of interest in season tickets this offseason.

Playoff baseball has a way of bringing fans back to the game not only for the pennant chase but for the following season as well.

HeatherC1212
09-01-2010, 01:13 AM
Heather will pony up half.

I'll get right on that after I rob a bank to pay for it, LOL :laugh:

He deserves a nice big contract though and I honestly hope he's a Red for life. I can't see him enjoying a life in New York or LA where the media and pressure are so much higher and I think he really likes Cincinnati and the team they have right now. I hope they get him signed for a good long time. :thumbup:

nemesis
09-01-2010, 01:16 AM
I'm hoping that they'll find the money to lock up Votto from a combination of contracts coming off the books (looking your way, Aaron Harang) and a swell of interest in season tickets this offseason.

Playoff baseball has a way of bringing fans back to the game not only for the pennant chase but for the following season as well.

Agreed. Locking Votto up to a LTC is VITAL for a city like Cincinnati. The fans around here need a player like Votto to talk about, idolize and worship. I had Larkin, Rijo and ED, my father had Rose, Robinson, Bench, Perez, Morgan, my grandfather had Klu, Lombardi, Pinson. This city baseball heritige is built around those names.

Votto needs to be added to that list.

WVRedsFan
09-01-2010, 01:18 AM
Give him whatever he wants. He's that important to the future.

And think about this. When you consider the young talent we have, it's going to be tough to sign Bruce, Stubbs (believe it or not), Heisey, Cueto, Volquez, Masset, and others to break the bank. If they win it all or come close this year, just open the coffers. It's not my money so I don't care.

WVRedsFan
09-01-2010, 01:21 AM
Agreed. Locking Votto up to a LTC is VITAL for a city like Cincinnati. The fans around here need a player like Votto to talk about, idolize and worship. I had Larkin, Rijo and ED, my father had Rose, Robinson, Bench, Perez, Morgan, my grandfather had Klu, Lombardi, Pinson. This city baseball heritige is built around those names.

Votto needs to be added to that list.Along with Frank Robinson and Junior Griffey. Both were maligned while here, but they were superstars and so is Joey.

cincinnati chili
09-01-2010, 01:52 AM
Here's some speculation from back in April:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/04/discussion-joey-votto-extension-possibilities.html

Here's one more recent, speculating that he could get $7 mil. in arbitration if he wins the MVP
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/joey_votto/

I think that's a good and perhaps even conservative possibility given the Ryan Howard precedent as a 3rd year player winning the MVP.

If he wins the MVP, then in order to lock him up and buy out his first year of free agency, I think you're going to need a deal resembling something like this:

2011: 7 mil
2012: 10 mil
2013: 14 mil
2014: 18 mi

4 years, 49 million

If he gets the triple crown, expect it to cost even more.

RedsManRick
09-01-2010, 03:00 AM
Question -- if he's going to be at the peak of his value after the season, why not just go year-to-year with him?

pedro
09-01-2010, 03:09 AM
I love Votto but don't think the Reds should break the bank to sign him long term.

First base is just too easy to fill to put all your eggs in that basket IMO. If he played a premium defensive position I'd feel different.

TheNext44
09-01-2010, 03:34 AM
Good time to trade him. His value will never be higher. :cool:

nemesis
09-01-2010, 04:04 AM
I love Votto but don't think the Reds should break the bank to sign him long term.

First base is just too easy to fill to put all your eggs in that basket IMO. If he played a premium defensive position I'd feel different.


Uh...

Really?

1.000 OPS 1B with 30 HR Power aren't a premium here in Cincy?

In my lifetime this is what the Reds have gotten out of the 1B position:

1976 - Perez .780 OPS 19 HR / Driessen .764 OPS 7 HR
1977 - Driessen .843 OPS 17 HR
1978 - Driessen .742 OPS 16 HR
1979 - Driessen .744 OPS 18 HR
1980 - Driessen .795 OPS 14 HR
1981 - Driessen .735 OPS 7 HR
1982 - Driessen .789 OPS 17 HR
1983 - Esasky .778 OPS 12 HR / Driessen .810 OPS 12 HR
1984 - Esasky .649 OPS 10 HR
1985 - Esasky .797 OPS 21 HR
1986 - Esasky .728 OPS 12 HR
1987 - Esasky .856 OPS 22 HR
1988 - Esasky .739 OPS 15 HR
1989 - Benzinger .674 OPS 14 HR
1990 - Morris .879 OPS 7 HR / Benzinger .631 OPS 5 HR
1991 - Morris .853 OPS 14 HR
1992 - Morris .732 OPS 6 HR
1993 - Morris .791 OPS 7 HR
1994 - Morris .876 OPS 10 HR
1995 - Morris .784 OPS 11 HR
1996 - Morris .853 OPS 16 HR
1997 - Morris .679 OPS 1 HR
1998 - Casey .782 OPS 7 HR / Young .845 OPS 18 HR
1999 - Casey .938 OPS 25 HR
2000 - Casey .902 OPS 20 HR
2001 - Casey .827 OPS 13 HR
2002 - Casey .696 OPS 6 HR
2003 - Casey .758 OPS 14 HR
2004 - Casey .915 OPS 24 HR
2005 - Was a mess at 1B. Don't even wanna try and figure it out. Javy got time there. Nuff said.
2006 - Hatteberg .825 OPS 13 HR
2007 - Hatteberg .868 OPS 10 HR / Votto .918 OPS 4 HR
2008 - Votto .874 OPS 24 HR / Hatteberg .493 OPS 0 HR
2009 - Votto .981 OPS 25 HR
2010 - Votto 1.029 OPS 32 HR (With 1 month to play)

Which one of these does not look like the others?




3 Times in 34 years a 1B for the Reds has had a OPS of .950 or Higher. Joey has 2.

5 Times under a .700 OPS

19 times under a .800 OPS



5 Times in the last 34 years a 1B for the Reds has had 24 or more HR Joey has 3.

1 Time over 30. Joey.

10 Times they have had 10 or less.



4 Times in the last 50 years has a Reds 1B hit 30 or more HR's.

1960 - Robinson 31 HR 1.002 OPS
1968 - Perez 37 HR .893 OPS
1970 - Perez 40 HR .990 OPS
2010 - Votto 32 HR 1.029 OPS

Depending on how Sept/Oct plays out, he might have the best season a 1B has ever had in Reds history.

Sign him. Sign him now.

mth123
09-01-2010, 04:15 AM
Uh...

Really?

1.000 OPS 1B with 30 HR Power aren't a premium here in Cincy?

In my lifetime this is what the Reds have gotten out of the 1B position:

1976 - Perez .780 OPS 19 HR / Driessen .764 OPS 7 HR
1977 - Driessen .843 OPS 17 HR
1978 - Driessen .742 OPS 16 HR
1979 - Driessen .744 OPS 18 HR
1980 - Driessen .795 OPS 14 HR
1981 - Driessen .735 OPS 7 HR
1982 - Driessen .789 OPS 17 HR
1983 - Esasky .778 OPS 12 HR / Driessen .810 OPS 12 HR
1984 - Esasky .649 OPS 10 HR
1985 - Esasky .797 OPS 21 HR
1986 - Esasky .728 OPS 12 HR
1987 - Esasky .856 OPS 22 HR
1988 - Esasky .739 OPS 15 HR
1989 - Benzinger .674 OPS 14 HR
1990 - Morris .879 OPS 7 HR / Benzinger .631 OPS 5 HR
1991 - Morris .853 OPS 14 HR
1992 - Morris .732 OPS 6 HR
1993 - Morris .791 OPS 7 HR
1994 - Morris .876 OPS 10 HR
1995 - Morris .784 OPS 11 HR
1996 - Morris .853 OPS 16 HR
1997 - Morris .679 OPS 1 HR
1998 - Casey .782 OPS 7 HR / Young .845 OPS 18 HR
1999 - Casey .938 OPS 25 HR
2000 - Casey .902 OPS 20 HR
2001 - Casey .827 OPS 13 HR
2002 - Casey .696 OPS 6 HR
2003 - Casey .758 OPS 14 HR
2004 - Casey .915 OPS 24 HR
2005 - Was a mess at 1B. Don't even wanna try and figure it out. Javy got time there. Nuff said.
2006 - Hatteberg .825 OPS 13 HR
2007 - Hatteberg .868 OPS 10 HR / Votto .918 OPS 4 HR
2008 - Votto .874 OPS 24 HR / Hatteberg .493 OPS 0 HR
2009 - Votto .981 OPS 25 HR
2010 - Votto 1.029 OPS 32 HR (With 1 month to play)

Which one of these does not look like the others?




3 Times in 34 years a 1B for the Reds has had a OPS of .950 or Higher. Joey has 2.

5 Times they have been under .700 OPS

10 times under .800 OPS



5 Times in the last 34 years a 1B for the Reds has had 24 or more HR Joey has 3.

10 Times they have had 10 or less.



4 Times in the last 50 years has a Reds 1B hit 30 or more HR's.

1960 - Robinson 31 HR 1.002 OPS
1968 - Perez 37 HR .893 OPS
1970 - Perez 40 HR .990 OPS
2010 - Votto 32 HR 1.029 OPS

Depending on how August plays out, he might have the best season a 1B has ever had in Reds history.

Sign him. Sign him now.

Perez played 3B from 1967 to 1971. Check out Lee May from 67 to 71. 69 to 71 would be 3 of the best 1B years the team has had.

Still, your overall point is right on.

nemesis
09-01-2010, 04:44 AM
Perez played 3B from 1967 to 1971. Check out Lee May from 67 to 71. 69 to 71 would be 3 of the best 1B years the team has had.

Still, your overall point is right on.

Going from MLB.com Historical records. They had Tony listed as a 1B so I just went with his #'s. Still Since 1976 on 1B has been pretty much below league average less 2 good yeas by Casey.

nemesis
09-01-2010, 04:55 AM
Ok. Factoring in Lee May 5 year run at 1B...

1967 May .730 OPS 12 HR
1968 May .805 OPS 22 HR
1969 May .860 OPS 38 HR
1970 May .782 OPS 34 HR (.297 OBP Yikes!)
1971 May .864 OPS 39 HR

May had power but his OBP was terrible. Never had a .900 OPS in his career.

7 ~ 30 HR seasons by Reds 1B in the last 50 years

3 May (.772 Career OPS)
2 Perez - HOF (.804 Career OPS)
1 Robinson - HOF (.926 Career OPS)
1 Votto (.953 Career OPS)

If he gives up baseball tomorrow, Votto retires as the highest OPSing 1B in the history of the Reds.

The best season ever by a Reds 1B is 1954:

Big Klu - 49 HR ~ 141 RBI ~ .326 BA ~ 1.049 OPS (35 K) Awesome Season, Awesome Man.

membengal
09-01-2010, 07:59 AM
I hate thinking about contracts in the middle of a season, and I bet Walt and Joey are not going to worry about it now.

I think in the off-season you will see the GM who locked down Pujols in 2003 to a seven-year deal do something long-term with Votto. You can win multiple pennants with a guy like Votto anchoring your team.

REDREAD
09-01-2010, 11:40 AM
I would like to see Votto stay here a long time. However, I don't think we should do "whatever it takes". I just remember everyone bellyaching about how Jr "killed" our chances to contend, despite making only 9 million/year.. If Votto makes 18-20 million/year at the end of his contract and the team is only hovering around .500, there's going to be a lot of venom.

In hindsight, going year to year with Dunn (most of his stay here) was the best move the team made, even though he never got hurt. A lot of folks wanted to give Dunn a huge multi-year contract too.

Even though it's less risky to give a 1b a huge contract (as opposed to a pitcher), we need to exercise some caution here.. Ceuto and other young players are going to be getting their paydays soon too. I want the flexiblity for the Reds to trade away the right players at the right time, and nothing makes a player more untradable than a 100 million dollar contract, no matter how good he is.

I don't want to be pessimistic, but look at what happened to Travis Hafner and some other 1b/DH that fell off the cliff after being given huge contracts.

SirFelixCat
09-01-2010, 12:05 PM
I hate thinking about contracts in the middle of a season, and I bet Walt and Joey are not going to worry about it now.

I think in the off-season you will see the GM who locked down Pujols in 2003 to a seven-year deal do something long-term with Votto. You can win multiple pennants with a guy like Votto anchoring your team.

Winner!

I think this happens. Along w/ possibly Bruce to a Longoria type deal as well. :thumbup:

pedro
09-01-2010, 12:14 PM
Uh...

Really?

1.000 OPS 1B with 30 HR Power aren't a premium here in Cincy?

In my lifetime this is what the Reds have gotten out of the 1B position:

1976 - Perez .780 OPS 19 HR / Driessen .764 OPS 7 HR
1977 - Driessen .843 OPS 17 HR
1978 - Driessen .742 OPS 16 HR
1979 - Driessen .744 OPS 18 HR
1980 - Driessen .795 OPS 14 HR
1981 - Driessen .735 OPS 7 HR
1982 - Driessen .789 OPS 17 HR
1983 - Esasky .778 OPS 12 HR / Driessen .810 OPS 12 HR
1984 - Esasky .649 OPS 10 HR
1985 - Esasky .797 OPS 21 HR
1986 - Esasky .728 OPS 12 HR
1987 - Esasky .856 OPS 22 HR
1988 - Esasky .739 OPS 15 HR
1989 - Benzinger .674 OPS 14 HR
1990 - Morris .879 OPS 7 HR / Benzinger .631 OPS 5 HR
1991 - Morris .853 OPS 14 HR
1992 - Morris .732 OPS 6 HR
1993 - Morris .791 OPS 7 HR
1994 - Morris .876 OPS 10 HR
1995 - Morris .784 OPS 11 HR
1996 - Morris .853 OPS 16 HR
1997 - Morris .679 OPS 1 HR
1998 - Casey .782 OPS 7 HR / Young .845 OPS 18 HR
1999 - Casey .938 OPS 25 HR
2000 - Casey .902 OPS 20 HR
2001 - Casey .827 OPS 13 HR
2002 - Casey .696 OPS 6 HR
2003 - Casey .758 OPS 14 HR
2004 - Casey .915 OPS 24 HR
2005 - Was a mess at 1B. Don't even wanna try and figure it out. Javy got time there. Nuff said.
2006 - Hatteberg .825 OPS 13 HR
2007 - Hatteberg .868 OPS 10 HR / Votto .918 OPS 4 HR
2008 - Votto .874 OPS 24 HR / Hatteberg .493 OPS 0 HR
2009 - Votto .981 OPS 25 HR
2010 - Votto 1.029 OPS 32 HR (With 1 month to play)

Which one of these does not look like the others?




3 Times in 34 years a 1B for the Reds has had a OPS of .950 or Higher. Joey has 2.

5 Times under a .700 OPS

19 times under a .800 OPS



5 Times in the last 34 years a 1B for the Reds has had 24 or more HR Joey has 3.

1 Time over 30. Joey.

10 Times they have had 10 or less.



4 Times in the last 50 years has a Reds 1B hit 30 or more HR's.

1960 - Robinson 31 HR 1.002 OPS
1968 - Perez 37 HR .893 OPS
1970 - Perez 40 HR .990 OPS
2010 - Votto 32 HR 1.029 OPS

Depending on how Sept/Oct plays out, he might have the best season a 1B has ever had in Reds history.

Sign him. Sign him now.

First, you can't really compare numbers from the 70's with today. It's a different game, second, just because the Reds haven't done a good job filling the position while they were fielding generally bad teams isn't all that surprising.

Still, Votto is having a monster season and is certainly a fine player, I'm just not convinced the Reds are in a position to give huge money to any player, even one as good as Votto.

RedEye
09-01-2010, 12:20 PM
First, you can't really compare numbers from the 70's with today. It's a different game, second, just because the Reds haven't done a good job filling the position while they were fielding generally bad teams isn't all that surprising.


I was under the impression that OPS was a pretty neutral stat to compare. Sure, you might have a spike in SLG during the steroids era, but good players have always gotten on base, right?

Ghosts of 1990
09-01-2010, 12:23 PM
Lots of talk on here of '4' years. Why would we do that? Since when is that long-term?

He is 26 years old. Sign him for 7 or 8 years and be done with it so he's here through his prime years and through our window of contention. Long-term is not 2 to 4 years as we've seen with guys like Phillips and Dunn. Hoping we do things the right way this time around.

7 years, 90 million gets it done IIRC

traderumor
09-01-2010, 12:27 PM
Question -- if he's going to be at the peak of his value after the season, why not just go year-to-year with him?I think that begs the question that he will be at "peak" value after this season. One monster season after two very good seasons still has him in "very good young ballplayer" status.

Another season similar to this one, and Joey can argue very strongly that he is now in elite status and should be paid accordingly.

From a human resources perspective, it says something about an organization when they are willing to treat their key employees fairly and not appearing to fight for every dime with them. Those are just a few answers I can think of ;)

pedro
09-01-2010, 12:31 PM
I was under the impression that OPS was a pretty neutral stat to compare. Sure, you might have a spike in SLG during the steroids era, but good players have always gotten on base, right?

Not the way they do now, OPS numbers across the board are higher than they've ever been except for some spikes by certain HOF players.

That's not said to denigrate Votto, but I think giving any player more than a 5 year contract is a huge mistake. The Reds have him for 3 more years no matter what (IIRC) so is throwing the bank at him after one great year really that bright a business strategy?

traderumor
09-01-2010, 12:35 PM
I love Votto. I hate contracts longer than 4 years. Circumstances change too fast in this game to enlist someone for longer than that.

oneupper
09-01-2010, 12:47 PM
If you are not going to buy out several FA years, a LT contract makes no sense for the club, you'd prefer to go year to year with or without arbitration and keep all your options (trade, etc) open.

I'd do a 6 or 7 year contract or none at all. That takes Joey to age 33-34. I think he'll age better than Fielder or Berkman.
If the $/year are acceptable, do it. If not, you do the analysis again the next year.

Homer Bailey
09-01-2010, 12:50 PM
Start at $55/5 and be willing to go to $70/6.

Sea Ray
09-01-2010, 01:21 PM
3 Times in 34 years a 1B for the Reds has had a OPS of .950 or Higher. Joey has 2.



Who had the other?

BuckeyeRedleg
09-01-2010, 01:22 PM
If you are not going to buy out several FA years, a LT contract makes no sense for the club, you'd prefer to go year to year with or without arbitration and keep all your options (trade, etc) open.

I'd do a 6 or 7 year contract or none at all. That takes Joey to age 33-34. I think he'll age better than Fielder or Berkman.
If the $/year are acceptable, do it. If not, you do the analysis again the next year.

This ^^^^

traderumor
09-01-2010, 01:39 PM
If you are not going to buy out several FA years, a LT contract makes no sense for the club, you'd prefer to go year to year with or without arbitration and keep all your options (trade, etc) open.

I'd do a 6 or 7 year contract or none at all. That takes Joey to age 33-34. I think he'll age better than Fielder or Berkman.
If the $/year are acceptable, do it. If not, you do the analysis again the next year.You buy out arbitration, then if things are still agreeable and the price is reasonable, you buy out some free agency years with a second extension. "All in" doesn't have a very good success rate in professional sports, but esp. in the guaranteed contract world of MLB.

thatcoolguy_22
09-01-2010, 01:49 PM
why give an LTC now when his value is at his peak? Year to year will get you 3 more years and take Votto to 29. A million things could happen between now and then to fluctuate the value and the majority of them would lessen it. I'm fine with waiting until his last year of arbitration and then breaking the bank.

Homer Bailey
09-01-2010, 02:01 PM
why give an LTC now when his value is at his peak? Year to year will get you 3 more years and take Votto to 29. A million things could happen between now and then to fluctuate the value and the majority of them would lessen it. I'm fine with waiting until his last year of arbitration and then breaking the bank.

Why allow other suiters to make him offers? Going head to head with the Yanks, Sox, Tigers, Cubs, Mets? Yeah, no thanks. Lock him up now.

Ghosts of 1990
09-01-2010, 02:08 PM
Why allow other suiters to make him offers? Going head to head with the Yanks, Sox, Tigers, Cubs, Mets? Yeah, no thanks. Lock him up now.

Agree. Give the guy a deserved raise. We've done things on the 'year to year' method for too long. It's not good business. What you spend you will recover with Joey Votto. He'll put fannies in the seats and if he's healthy we will contend.

We haven't committed to a guy in a long time. If don't build around Votto I don't believe we'll build around anyone.

traderumor
09-01-2010, 03:14 PM
Agree. Give the guy a deserved raise. We've done things on the 'year to year' method for too long. It's not good business. What you spend you will recover with Joey Votto. He'll put fannies in the seats and if he's healthy we will contend.

We haven't committed to a guy in a long time. If don't build around Votto I don't believe we'll build around anyone.We committed to Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Brandon Phillips very recently. They have been worth the money, but now as they near the end of the contracts, I'm glad they were not longer than they were. Leaves the options open. Imagine one or two more backloaded years of Harang.

TheNext44
09-01-2010, 03:59 PM
We committed to Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Brandon Phillips very recently. They have been worth the money, but now as they near the end of the contracts, I'm glad they were not longer than they were. Leaves the options open. Imagine one or two more backloaded years of Harang.

Harang and Arrpyo were pitchers approaching 30 when extended. Really no comparison.

Phillips is a good comparison, however. Same age, infielder.

So far, Phillips has provided the Reds $15.5M of excess value over the entire contract which has another year and an option to it. That means that Pnillips could not play another game and he would have provided $15.5M in excess value over the length of the contract. I would have no problem if his contract had an additional few years on it.

But here is the most important point about locking up Votto. If you do it every time, with every franchise player like Votto, in the end, the team will save money. I still would like to wait a year, since he's not going to get more expensive than he is now, but i would lock him up until his mid thirties when I do.

The Operator
09-01-2010, 04:23 PM
Imagine one or two more backloaded years of Harang.

Position players are much less risky than pitchers, though.

nemesis
09-01-2010, 04:27 PM
Who had the other?

Sean Casey

Scrap Irony
09-01-2010, 05:19 PM
For each year of security, you ask for one year of free agency. And you pay his free agent years fairly in today's market. You might also give him the option of a no-trade or pick 'em contract, thereby limiting the options of teams he might play for. For that, however, he'd need to knock some cash (say, $15 million) off the top.

Therefore:

2011: $7.5 million
2012: $10 million
2013: $12.5 million
2014: $15 million
2015: $17 million
2017: $20 million
TOTAL: 6/ $82.5 million

You offer a much smaller LTC to Bruce (5/$35 million) as well. If they accept, you've got two building blocks to anchor your lineup. Hopefully, others will also require LTCs. It means you're building a special team that will compete year after year.

traderumor
09-01-2010, 05:52 PM
Harang and Arrpyo were pitchers approaching 30 when extended. Really no comparison.

Phillips is a good comparison, however. Same age, infielder.

So far, Phillips has provided the Reds $15.5M of excess value over the entire contract which has another year and an option to it. That means that Pnillips could not play another game and he would have provided $15.5M in excess value over the length of the contract. I would have no problem if his contract had an additional few years on it.

But here is the most important point about locking up Votto. If you do it every time, with every franchise player like Votto, in the end, the team will save money. I still would like to wait a year, since he's not going to get more expensive than he is now, but i would lock him up until his mid thirties when I do. LT committments were made, which was the point I was responding to.

thatcoolguy_22
09-01-2010, 06:29 PM
Why allow other suiters to make him offers? Going head to head with the Yanks, Sox, Tigers, Cubs, Mets? Yeah, no thanks. Lock him up now.

No one can make offers while he is under contract with the Reds. Wait until he is in the final year, or at least not after what could possibly be the best season of his career, to offer a contract that will take him to 35 or so.

Homer Bailey
09-01-2010, 06:41 PM
No one can make offers while he is under contract with the Reds. Wait until he is in the final year, or at least not after what could possibly be the best season of his career, to offer a contract that will take him to 35 or so.

If you wait until he is in his final year, he waits until AFTER that year, and opens up the bidding to absolutely everyone. Dumbest possible thing the Reds could do.

thatcoolguy_22
09-01-2010, 06:49 PM
If you wait until he is in his final year, he waits until AFTER that year, and opens up the bidding to absolutely everyone. Dumbest possible thing the Reds could do.

I've seen the dumbest moves the Reds could do (see Eric Milton and Josh Hamilton pinch hit for by Juan Castro, or more hypothetical ideas: move the team to Wyoming, sell 100% of the team to Marge Schott, turn the GABP into a giant skate bowl and play games at a little league field... all much more dumb), and that is blatant hyperbole. Too many what if situations for that to even be discussed right now. You don't sign LTC after career years, bottom line. How much is Pablo Sandoval worth right now compared to the end of last year?

Sure discuss numbers with his agent and if you think its a great deal 5/60 or something of the sort then go for it. But I'm not giving a 6/100 deal right now.

kaldaniels
09-01-2010, 07:08 PM
I've seen the dumbest moves the Reds could do (see Eric Milton and Josh Hamilton pinch hit for by Juan Castro, or more hypothetical ideas: move the team to Wyoming, sell 100% of the team to Marge Schott, turn the GABP into a giant skate bowl and play games at a little league field... all much more dumb), and that is blatant hyperbole. Too many what if situations for that to even be discussed right now. You don't sign LTC after career years, bottom line. How much is Pablo Sandoval worth right now compared to the end of last year?

Sure discuss numbers with his agent and if you think its a great deal 5/60 or something of the sort then go for it. But I'm not giving a 6/100 deal right now.

Find one person here who would give Votto 6 yr 100 million right now.

thatcoolguy_22
09-01-2010, 07:39 PM
Lets all just go rah rah rah because of the pennant chase and not think of anything logically. Instead of waiting until (at the earliest) the end of next year, we all want to run off and sign a LTC to Votto at the end of his 3rd full year? Arbritration you are talking about 3/34-ish. 5/60 would be a great deal buying his most prime free agent years at 13mm a year. So this being a great deal the LTC contract works.

However...

Why would Votto sign that? (see Evan Longoria, arguably the worst contract in the modern age from a player's perspective). Financial security? Votto has already made over a million over the last 3 years and is in line for about 7mm next season.

Wait 1 more year at a minimum.

Homer Bailey
09-01-2010, 07:48 PM
Lets all just go rah rah rah because of the pennant chase and not think of anything logically. Instead of waiting until (at the earliest) the end of next year, we all want to run off and sign a LTC to Votto at the end of his 3rd full year? Arbritration you are talking about 3/34-ish. 5/60 would be a great deal buying his most prime free agent years at 13mm a year. So this being a great deal the LTC contract works.

However...

Why would Votto sign that? (see Evan Longoria, arguably the worst contract in the modern age from a player's perspective). Financial security? Votto has already made over a million over the last 3 years and is in line for about 7mm next season.

Wait 1 more year at a minimum.

The Phillies waited too long with Howard. How'd that work out for them?

kaldaniels
09-01-2010, 07:51 PM
Why would Votto sign that? (see Evan Longoria, arguably the worst contract in the modern age from a player's perspective). Financial security? Votto has already made over a million over the last 3 years and is in line for about 7mm next season.

Wait 1 more year at a minimum.

Yes.

thatcoolguy_22
09-01-2010, 10:24 PM
Yes.

he has already made over 1.5 million. He is guaranteed 7 million plus after this season. why short change himself for "financial security?" Roughly 8.5 is more than enough to wait a little while on. Its not like he is getting Roger Maris money right now. Stop kidding yourself.

If they wanted to go long term the time would have been after his first year or like longoria after his first week in the bigs. Now its too late. Why sign him when its impossible for him to get any more leverage than what he already has?

DO NOT EVER SIGN A LTC CONTRACT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING A CAREER YEAR!

ever.

edabbs44
09-01-2010, 10:42 PM
You sign Votto long term if the terms make sense in the greater picture of the franchise. You go year to year if the don't. Walt has been through this before.

If you over extend yourself you could end up with a real big problem, especially when a team like Cincy's margin for error is razor thin.

Slyder
09-01-2010, 10:43 PM
why give an LTC now when his value is at his peak? Year to year will get you 3 more years and take Votto to 29. A million things could happen between now and then to fluctuate the value and the majority of them would lessen it. I'm fine with waiting until his last year of arbitration and then breaking the bank.

And then lose him to Boston, Washington, LA, Chicago, or NY as they will gather up all the loose change in the seat cushions of the executive sweets to the tune of 5-7 yrs 180-210 mil if he continues at anywhere near the clip he has been. You wait and you will really risk losing him as we go year to year, show him some loyalty and Joey looks to be a guy willing to return it.

I say look to go that 4-6 years now and set some cost certainty for the club going forward as we will need that when Chapman, Cueto, Volquez, Bruce, Heisey, Stubbs, etc start hitting their Arby years and make can start to make decisions based on future rather than worry about whether Votto is getting 12 mil or 15 mil next year as he will I am sure argue (regardless of the type of season) that he vastly out performed his contract his first 3 seasons.

kaldaniels
09-01-2010, 10:56 PM
he has already made over 1.5 million. He is guaranteed 7 million plus after this season. why short change himself for "financial security?" Roughly 8.5 is more than enough to wait a little while on. Its not like he is getting Roger Maris money right now. Stop kidding yourself.

If they wanted to go long term the time would have been after his first year or like longoria after his first week in the bigs. Now its too late. Why sign him when its impossible for him to get any more leverage than what he already has?

DO NOT EVER SIGN A LTC CONTRACT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING A CAREER YEAR!

ever.

How long do you plan on keeping Votto around? If you are willing to answer that go ahead and put the amount you will pay him per year. Let's see if it is realistic or not.

I think a 5 year 65 Million (75 Million w/incentives) deal is realistic.

thatcoolguy_22
09-01-2010, 11:45 PM
keep him for a decade. My whole point is you wait until after next year to lock him up long term. He will still have 2 years of arbitration to buy out. I think at that point 5/75 is a legitimate offer (varying of course on this years arb case and next year's season). That 5 year deal will cover all of Votto's prime years and buy out his 1st 3 years of free agency at slightly below market value. The biggest thing is that Votto will probably not have a triple crown type season next year, thus lowering his bartering position.

I'm as big of a Votto fan as anyone this side of Heather (my dogs are named Votto and Cueto), but not so much that I want to watch the Reds handcuff themselves prematurely.

kaldaniels
09-02-2010, 01:01 AM
keep him for a decade. My whole point is you wait until after next year to lock him up long term. He will still have 2 years of arbitration to buy out. I think at that point 5/75 is a legitimate offer (varying of course on this years arb case and next year's season). That 5 year deal will cover all of Votto's prime years and buy out his 1st 3 years of free agency at slightly below market value. The biggest thing is that Votto will probably not have a triple crown type season next year, thus lowering his bartering position.

I'm as big of a Votto fan as anyone this side of Heather (my dogs are named Votto and Cueto), but not so much that I want to watch the Reds handcuff themselves prematurely.

You are doing a lot of projections my friend but giving no details.

What will Votto's line be in 2011?

Second request - please break down the dollar figures by year (the next decade as you say) that you believe he can be signed for

oregonred
09-02-2010, 01:57 AM
They can worry about it in the offseason. I am assuming with baseball now officially back in Cincinnati that the eroding season ticket base of the lost decade is going to get a nice bump which will help the revenue equation.

I would expect 2.5M+ gate next season given the weekend crowds the last few months as an indicator. That will give the club a huge revenue bump to maintain/build payroll over the next few years.

Rivalry to spark interest: Check (Cards and Cubs)
Superstar: Check
Phenom: Check
Winning Team: Check

thatcoolguy_22
09-02-2010, 02:18 AM
You are doing a lot of projections my friend but giving no details.

What will Votto's line be in 2011?

Second request - please break down the dollar figures by year (the next decade as you say) that you believe he can be signed for


I refuse to do the leg work on looking on comparing Votto's year to all time great (outside steroid era) season's, but it must rank. What are the chances Votto will OPS over 1.00 with a 19% LD%, 46.9% GB, and a .359 BABIP? I take my chances his numbers dip into the .950 range and the Reds are not forced to give a Ryan Howard type deal.

My projection:

11 7.0 (arb)
12 10.0
13 13.0
14 15.0
15 15.0
16 15.0

with some incentives throughout. Pujols averages almost 9.0 WAR and will probably be in the 25m area. Votto right now has a 6.3 (with a month left). According to his recent SI interview really likes the feel of Cincinnati and seems to be willing to not leave for the limelight of NY or LA. I am saying wait another year and hopefully that type of deal works.

oregonred
09-02-2010, 02:25 AM
Votto is the bonafide superstar type of player the Reds can and should be able to afford to pay $15M+ a year from 2013 onward with proper payroll management and they have total payflex after 2011 to make some of the longterm choices by locking up Votto first, then Bruce. Superstars earn their money so I'm not worried about keeping Votto in the fold through his prime.

It's those $5-10M multiyear contracts for slightly better than replacement level and/or aging vets that can kill any mid-market team like the Reds. Heck they spent nearly $30M just on Harang, CoCo and Lincoln this season.

Always Red
09-02-2010, 10:55 AM
I just noticed this today, and it really caught my attention- look at the similar poses:

http://i.cdn.turner.com/sivault/si_online/covers/images/2010/0802_large.jpg

http://i.cdn.turner.com/sivault/si_online/covers/images/2010/0830_large.jpg

I greatly admire Stan Musial, both as a player and as a man. Joey Votto, to this point, seems to share many of those very same attributes with Stan the Man; many folks that have met Joey say that he is the most polite player they have ever met.

Would love the Reds to sign him to a LTC. As for how much, I'll leave that to the bean counters.

membengal
09-02-2010, 10:56 AM
I'd be pretty okay with whatever contract the Reds think works for their budget that keeps Votto longterm.

ETA: Great observation, Always Red.

HeatherC1212
09-02-2010, 11:06 AM
I just noticed this today, and it really caught my attention- look at the similar poses:

http://i.cdn.turner.com/sivault/si_online/covers/images/2010/0802_large.jpg

http://i.cdn.turner.com/sivault/si_online/covers/images/2010/0830_large.jpg

I greatly admire Stan Musial, both as a player and as a man. Joey Votto, to this point, seems to share many of those very same attributes with Stan the Man; many folks that have met Joey say that he is the most polite player they have ever met.

Would love the Reds to sign him to a LTC. As for how much, I'll leave that to the bean counters.

I observed that same thing in the Votto SI thread. I mentioned it there not long after the cover came out and not a single person paid any attention to me. Am I really that invisible??! I guess I should have shown the actual photo instead of just linking it there. Oh well. :( :eek: :p:

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2224850&postcount=35

nate
09-02-2010, 11:17 AM
Stan's pants are baggier than Votto's!

medford
09-02-2010, 11:57 AM
he has already made over 1.5 million. He is guaranteed 7 million plus after this season. why short change himself for "financial security?" Roughly 8.5 is more than enough to wait a little while on. Its not like he is getting Roger Maris money right now. Stop kidding yourself.



Why would he do it? Because there is no garuntee that he doesn't blow out a knee next year or gets beaned in the head and is never the same. Because while he may get $7 mil from an arbitrator, he may find himself released to the free agent market and no offers ever again. Things happen, $8.5 mil is nice, more than enough for any reasonable person to live on for their life, and their children's lives if they manage things properrly (and honestly more than enough for every generation following if they manage it properly and don't spend like a druken sailor), but $85 mil is even more security, gives you more ability to do charitable things than you could do before, gives you more options to purchase the toys you like or build the house you've dreamed of, etc... That is why Joey would be interested. Sure the risk is small, but it does exist that next year is the last year he makes a dime in this game while having a lifetime to live.

Perhaps he has no interest in signing long term, maybe he wants to go back to back to Toronto to play, or find a way to get to the Red Sox or Yankees as quickly as possible. Or maybe he wants to stay in Cincy as long as possible, but wants more security that they're going to be committed long term to a payroll structure that can win a championship caliber team on a regular basis. There's many reasons why he may not be willing to sign a LTC this offseason. In the end, its up to Joey, the Reds would be foolish to not at least offer it as a starting point that they're comfortable with (whatever that is)

From a Reds perspective, aside from locking Votto up long term, there are reasons to do it. First it sends a message to the fans and declining season ticket base that they're committed to winning, that they don't intend 2010 to look like a fluke, but like the norm for the next 5-10 years and beyond. As the Brewers series shows, the season ticket base is pretty small, locking Joey up long term shows a committement, that you have an MVP caliber player to see on a nightly basis. Perhaps now you start the year thinking you'll go to about 6-10 games a year, but you'll just be a walkup, and go whenever its convinent, and if they're not very good well maybe that 6-10 games turns into 4-6 games as you've lost interst by July.

2nd, I don't know the structure of their TV/Radio deals, nor when they expire, but their ratings are huge this year. Signing Votto long term signals a commitment to potential radio/tv partners that puts more money back into your coffers, garunteed money once the contract is signed.

3rd, it signals to potential free agents that you're committed to winning and that there will be championship caliber players around you during the course of your contract. When they're looking at their options for LF this offseason as a free agent, wouldn't you like to know that Joey Votto might be batting ahead/behind you for length of your deal or do you wonder if you're going to have to carry the team in another season if he's traded?

So clearly, there are many reasons for the Reds to do it, all of which reward them beyond just controlling Votto's time frame in the Queen city. The contracts of Harang, Arroyo, Coco & Phillips all come off the books soon, unless the Reds extend them. Some of the pitchers are about to become expensive, but there's room w/n the current buget to sign him long term to a fat contract. As the recent Pirates investigation shows, even small market teams are rolling in money. There's not going to a $30mil commitment to an Aroldis Chapman type every offseason, I've read somewhere that every postseason series (or was it home game) is worth like $10 mil. Winning a few games this postseason could more than provide the room in the buget to extend Votto long term while not affecting the rest of the roster a bit.

Albert Pujols, Prince & Adrian Gonzalez are all approaching big money deals before Votto's arbitration years are up. Howard already has a huge deal. Wait another year, and all of a sudden the asking price for an MVP caliber first baseman could be signficantly higher than it is today. Sure first baseman are easier to replace than other spots, but MVP caliber first baseman are not easy to replace. I see no reason why this season is any type of fluke for Votto. Just watch the man in any at-bat and you see a guy that is locked in every time at the plate, a man that's rarely going to get cheated in his approach, a man that's going to produce similar numbers given good health for another 6+ seasons. If possible, I'm locking up those numbers right now if I can.

bucksfan2
09-02-2010, 12:07 PM
If the Reds are unwilling to build a team around a budding super star then they should just change their name to the Pirates and quit trying. It was the same thing with KGJ, you make that trade over and over again. You can't get snake bitten by one big contract that went wrong.

Homer Bailey
09-02-2010, 12:20 PM
Great post, medford.

HeatherC1212
09-02-2010, 02:42 PM
*applauds for medford's extremely awesome post* :D :beerme: :clap: :notworthy

Hoosier Red
09-02-2010, 02:48 PM
Agreed with everything Medford said.
If I'm the Reds I'd also pre-load the contract so that Votto's paid further above market value next year(when there will be much more flexibility) than 3 or 4 years from now when there will be a lot more people going to their later arb years.

This works to the players advantage because he gets more money up front so it would almost certainly work for him. The only downside is 5 years from now when he has two years left on the deal, the agents tend to forget he was signed to much higher values his first two years.

TheNext44
09-02-2010, 03:47 PM
The Phillies waited too long with Howard. How'd that work out for them?

Only they didn't. They actually panicked and signed him for too much too soon. Philly has a habit of paying players too much, if it's the player that they want. See Raul Ibanez.

The Howard signing is exactly why there is no hurry to sign Votto. After next season, Fielder, Gonzalez, and Pujols will be free agents at the same time. Anyone who took Econ 101 knows that that should actually result in lower salaries for big bat 1B, especially when there is a very small number of teams that could actually afford to pay them what they want.

I am all for signing Votto up until his mid thirties. But why do it after a career year? He's not going to have a better year next season, and odds are, salaries for 1B will go down. He certainly is not going to get more expensive after next season, than after this season.

No harm in trying to negotiate one after this season, but no reason to panic ilk the Phillies did and pay him what he want, no matter what he asks for.

oneupper
09-02-2010, 04:09 PM
Agreed with everything Medford said.
If I'm the Reds I'd also pre-load the contract so that Votto's paid further above market value next year(when there will be much more flexibility) than 3 or 4 years from now when there will be a lot more people going to their later arb years.

This works to the players advantage because he gets more money up front so it would almost certainly work for him. The only downside is 5 years from now when he has two years left on the deal, the agents tend to forget he was signed to much higher values his first two years.

There's a reason contracts aren't front-loaded. GMs don't necessarily last in their jobs and paying for the "outer" years becomes someone else's problem.

Homer Bailey
09-02-2010, 04:13 PM
Only they didn't. They actually panicked and signed him for too much too soon. Philly has a habit of paying players too much, if it's the player that they want. See Raul Ibanez.

The Howard signing is exactly why there is no hurry to sign Votto. After next season, Fielder, Gonzalez, and Pujols will be free agents at the same time. Anyone who took Econ 101 knows that that should actually result in lower salaries for big bat 1B, especially when there is a very small number of teams that could actually afford to pay them what they want.

I am all for signing Votto up until his mid thirties. But why do it after a career year? He's not going to have a better year next season, and odds are, salaries for 1B will go down. He certainly is not going to get more expensive after next season, than after this season.

No harm in trying to negotiate one after this season, but no reason to panic ilk the Phillies did and pay him what he want, no matter what he asks for.

The Phillies absolutely waited a year too long on Howard. In his first year of being arbitration eligible, he was awarded $10M. The next year, it was estimated that he was to receive $18M in arbitration, then the Phillies signed him to a 3 year deal where he was set to make $15M in ’09, $19M in ’10, and $20M in ’11. Since they were unable to sign him to a long term deal at that point, they then had to give him a 5 year/$125M extension! Had they never gone to arbitration, they probably could have locked up Howard for a much more affordable rate across the same time period. But instead, they had to renegotiate Howard’s contract two separate times, and they drastically overpaid.

If you don’t lock up a few of Votto’s FA years before his arbitration years, the more costly he is going to be on a year by year basis. I would be absolutely shocked if the Reds don’t work out a long term contract for him this offseason, and I will take back anything good I ever said about Walt and Bob.

The whole “you don’t sign a guy after a career year” applies specifically to free agents, and typically those that have “career years” that aren’t in line for how they project as a player. Votto projects to be this good of a player for several years to come. This isn’t signing a Marco Scuatro type “career year.” This is protecting an incredible asset, and assuring you have him for years to come.

TheNext44
09-02-2010, 04:48 PM
The Phillies absolutely waited a year too long on Howard. In his first year of being arbitration eligible, he was awarded $10M. The next year, it was estimated that he was to receive $18M in arbitration, then the Phillies signed him to a 3 year deal where he was set to make $15M in ’09, $19M in ’10, and $20M in ’11. Since they were unable to sign him to a long term deal at that point, they then had to give him a 5 year/$125M extension! Had they never gone to arbitration, they probably could have locked up Howard for a much more affordable rate across the same time period. But instead, they had to renegotiate Howard’s contract two separate times, and they drastically overpaid.

If you don’t lock up a few of Votto’s FA years before his arbitration years, the more costly he is going to be on a year by year basis. I would be absolutely shocked if the Reds don’t work out a long term contract for him this offseason, and I will take back anything good I ever said about Walt and Bob.

The whole “you don’t sign a guy after a career year” applies specifically to free agents, and typically those that have “career years” that aren’t in line for how they project as a player. Votto projects to be this good of a player for several years to come. This isn’t signing a Marco Scuatro type “career year.” This is protecting an incredible asset, and assuring you have him for years to come.

The contracts that Howard signed were terrible contracts from a the club perspective and it had nothing to do with how long they waited.

They first one came when salaries were falling, when Dunn, Burrell and Abreu were getting about half of what they were expecting. The Phillies still gave Howard what he asked for with a long term contract based on the older more expensive salaries. If they had gone through arbitration in '09 and '10, they would have paid him much less.

The extension was just ridiculous. They didn't need to do it and they overpaid him anyway. Had they waited until he was a free agent after 2011, they could have used the fact that Pujols, Fielder, and Gonzalez were available to drive his price down.

The Phillies have a history of overpaying for players that they like. That's why Howard got such an absurd contract, twice.

flyer85
09-02-2010, 04:51 PM
the problem is the Phillies and the asinine contract they gave Howard has set the market.

Homer Bailey
09-02-2010, 05:26 PM
The contracts that Howard signed were terrible contracts from a the club perspective and it had nothing to do with how long they waited.

They first one came when salaries were falling, when Dunn, Burrell and Abreu were getting about half of what they were expecting. The Phillies still gave Howard what he asked for with a long term contract based on the older more expensive salaries. If they had gone through arbitration in '09 and '10, they would have paid him much less.

The extension was just ridiculous. They didn't need to do it and they overpaid him anyway. Had they waited until he was a free agent after 2011, they could have used the fact that Pujols, Fielder, and Gonzalez were available to drive his price down.

The Phillies have a history of overpaying for players that they like. That's why Howard got such an absurd contract, twice.


My stance is that they were because they waited. If they had signed him through 2016 back when he was arb eligible, there is zero doubt in my mind they would have saved a ton of money.

Fact is, the longer the Reds wait to sign Votto, the more money it is going to cost them overall.

pedro
09-02-2010, 05:33 PM
My stance is that they were because they waited. If they had signed him through 2016 back when he was arb eligible, there is zero doubt in my mind they would have saved a ton of money.

Fact is, the longer the Reds wait to sign Votto, the more money it is going to cost them overall.

There is no way at this time to know whether even a reduced deal for Howard would have been a good one for the Phillies. He could very well get injured or fall off a cliff production wise and be nothing but a giant anchor.

Long term high dollar contracts are a huge huge risk.

TheNext44
09-02-2010, 08:05 PM
There is no way at this time to know whether even a reduced deal for Howard would have been a good one for the Phillies. He could very well get injured or fall off a cliff production wise and be nothing but a giant anchor.

Long term high dollar contracts are a huge huge risk.

Exactly.

Plus there is no reason to believe that Howard would have signed such a contract. He was the one that went to arbitration in '08.

Considering that a win was worth about $2M more in 2008 than it is now, I highly doubt that whatever long term contract that the Phillies might have signed Howard to back then would have saved them money.

WebScorpion
09-03-2010, 03:55 AM
Or we could just let Joey walk and keep Yonder Alonso waiting in the wings. We do have options. http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-confused005.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)

I(heart)Freel
09-20-2010, 04:31 PM
I hate thinking about contracts in the middle of a season, and I bet Walt and Joey are not going to worry about it now.

I think in the off-season you will see the GM who locked down Pujols in 2003 to a seven-year deal do something long-term with Votto. You can win multiple pennants with a guy like Votto anchoring your team.

Wanted to give this thread a bump.

Was on the "who plays LF in 2011" thread. Saw the comment that the Reds can't afford a star FA. Wondered where we do sit, payroll-wise, going into next year. So I opened up the spreadsheet I try to keep to speak intelligently on payroll discussions.

The Reds have some option decisions to make. And they have some arbitration cases to deal with. Those two things combined make it VERY difficult to predict payroll.

The biggest variable is Votto. I missed this thread the first time around, so I wanted to bring it back up for discussion. Specifically because in my research to determine what someone like Votto got in the past I noticed this:

When Pujols was signed to a LTC right before he hit arbitration, obviously Walt was the GM. But did you know Dan Lozano was Pujols' agent.

Guess who represents Votto?

Pujols' deal was 7/100. And that was in 2004. February, to be exact.

If a deal IS struck this off-season, and there are good reasons for and against this route, then I think that the Pujols contract might be the most accurate comp. You'd hate for Joey's health issue last season to be brought back up, but that might be to only difference between him and Albert at that point.

Brutus
09-20-2010, 04:57 PM
Wanted to give this thread a bump.

Was on the "who plays LF in 2011" thread. Saw the comment that the Reds can't afford a star FA. Wondered where we do sit, payroll-wise, going into next year. So I opened up the spreadsheet I try to keep to speak intelligently on payroll discussions.

The Reds have some option decisions to make. And they have some arbitration cases to deal with. Those two things combined make it VERY difficult to predict payroll.

The biggest variable is Votto. I missed this thread the first time around, so I wanted to bring it back up for discussion. Specifically because in my research to determine what someone like Votto got in the past I noticed this:

When Pujols was signed to a LTC right before he hit arbitration, obviously Walt was the GM. But did you know Dan Lozano was Pujols' agent.

Guess who represents Votto?

Pujols' deal was 7/100. And that was in 2004. February, to be exact.

If a deal IS struck this off-season, and there are good reasons for and against this route, then I think that the Pujols contract might be the most accurate comp. You'd hate for Joey's health issue last season to be brought back up, but that might be to only difference between him and Albert at that point.

Good post, but I don't think it's the only difference.

In the 3 years prior to Pujols' extension, his production:

2001: 1.013 OPS, 37 homers
2002: 0.955 OPS, 34 homers
2003: 1.106 OPS, 43 homers

In the first 3 years for Votto:

2008: 0.874 OPS, 24 homers
2009: 0.981 OPS, 25 homers
2010: 1.012 OPS, 34 homers

Seems like he's not quite at Pujols' level relative to their first 3 full seasons

RedsManRick
09-20-2010, 05:23 PM
Good post, but I don't think it's the only difference.

In the 3 years prior to Pujols' extension, his production:

2001: 1.013 OPS, 37 homers
2002: 0.955 OPS, 34 homers
2003: 1.106 OPS, 43 homers

In the first 3 years for Votto:

2008: 0.874 OPS, 24 homers
2009: 0.981 OPS, 25 homers
2010: 1.012 OPS, 34 homers

Seems like he's not quite at Pujols' level relative to their first 3 full seasons

Pujols was also entering his age 24 season, had finished top 4 in the MVP in each of those 3 years and was basically on a career arc that was matched by maybe 10-15 players in MLB history. That contract took him through his prime, to age 30.

Votto is a very, very good player already in the heart of his prime as he enters his age 27 season next year. A 7 year deal would take him well in to what will likely be his decline phase.

I'd be surprised if Votto signed any deal longer than 4 years.