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CySeymour
09-01-2010, 11:42 AM
Some quick and dirty math to show what the Reds need to do the rest of the way to seal the division:

Reds : 77-55 after 132 games. 30 games remain.

Cards: 69-61 after 130 games. 32 games remain.

Reds lead by 7 games.

If Reds go 5-25(.167), and finish 82-80, Cards must go 14-18(.438).
If Reds go 8-22(.267), and finish 85-77, Cards must go 17-15(.531).
If Reds go 12-18(.400), and finish 89-73, Cards must go 21-11(.656).
If Reds go 15-15(.500), and finish 92-70, Cards must go 24-8(.750).
If Reds go 17-13(.567), and finish 94-68, Cards must go 26-6(.813).
If Reds go 20-10(.667), and finish 97-65, Cards must go 28-4(.875).

So obviously, if the Reds can play near .500 or better, that makes it a nearly insurmountable hill for the Cardinals to climb.

jfleur87
09-01-2010, 11:47 AM
:beerme:

GIDP
09-01-2010, 11:48 AM
Cardinals highest winning percentage for a month this year is .652 in April. Their 2nd highest was July was .577

Reds lowest 2 are .522 April, and .512 in June.

Gonna take a massive failure and a good hot streak for the Cardinals to recover from 7 games back in 32 games. As long as the Reds go better than 12-18 chances are they have this sealed up just going off previous record.

BuckWild03
09-01-2010, 11:54 AM
For the first time in my life, math has made me extremely happy!:D

CySeymour
09-01-2010, 11:58 AM
Cardinals highest winning percentage for a month this year is .652 in April. Their 2nd highest was July was .577

Reds lowest 2 are .522 April, and .512 in June.

Gonna take a massive failure and a good hot streak for the Cardinals to recover from 7 games back in 32 games. As long as the Reds go better than 12-18 chances are they have this sealed up just going off previous record.

Nice post. The numbers are on the Reds side at this point, so as long as they can avoid a prolonged downward spiral, they'll be ok.

redsfan_12
09-01-2010, 11:59 AM
Our magic number is 25, correct?

I made a little homemade countdown :D

GIDP
09-01-2010, 12:01 PM
If the Reds continue their winning percentage .583 the Cardinals basically cant lose a single series the rest of their season.

DocRed
09-01-2010, 12:08 PM
If Reds go 12-18(.400), and finish 89-73, Cards must go 21-11(.656).

I like this line the best...hard to imagine that we will fall apart any worse than 12-18 and even so the Cards will have to win almost 2/3 the rest of the way to beat us.

Hey Meat
09-01-2010, 12:13 PM
Wow, that was awesome!! Thank you for instilling more confidence in me with your mathematical genius. :thumbup:

CySeymour
09-01-2010, 12:17 PM
Wow, that was awesome!! Thank you for instilling more confidence in me with your mathematical genius. :thumbup:

I knew listening to Mrs. Overbeck in high school math would pay off eventually!

New York Red
09-01-2010, 12:40 PM
I can't see this Reds team playing under .500 the rest of the way. They're just too good and too hot for that. Even us finishing at .500, the Cards finishing 24-8 is highly unlikely too - not the way they're playing now. More likely for us is a 17-13 type finish. The chances of this STL team finishing 26-6 is NADA. It ain't happening. Barring a monumental meltdown, this race is pretty much over.

Red Forman
09-01-2010, 01:03 PM
According to Baseball Prospectus....

Reds end up with 94 wins.....

95% probability of NL Central Crown....





http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

GIDP
09-01-2010, 01:39 PM
For reference the 2007 Rockies that went nuts and made a amazing run to get into the playoffs went 22-8 in their last 30 games of their season.

Cardinals would have to go better than that if the Reds played .500 baseball.

DaytonFlyer
09-01-2010, 02:07 PM
Our magic number is 25, correct?

I made a little homemade countdown :D

Yup.

RedsLvr
09-01-2010, 02:10 PM
For reference the 2007 Rockies that went nuts and made a amazing run to get into the playoffs went 22-8 in their last 30 games of their season.

Cardinals would have to go better than that if the Reds played .500 baseball.

Oh yeah, and the 2007 Rockies were young, energetic, and had good chemistry similar to this reds team. The 2010 Cardinals had to shave their heads to achieve unity, and we've seen how that's going. Two out of the five best Cardinals are fighting with each other.

Mush
09-01-2010, 02:28 PM
The only math I tend to look at are the odds that the bookies are giving.

You can currently get 10/1 on the Cards winning the NL Central.

Although that is not quite saying 'no chance' it is starting to get there :-)

Ironically the Reds were 10/1 at the start of the season to win it. If only we knew then what we know now ey!

mckbearcat48
09-01-2010, 07:39 PM
Reds math for winning the divison:

Show up at park, play baseball.

That is all.

gedred69
09-02-2010, 12:23 AM
Oh yeah, and the 2007 Rockies were young, energetic, and had good chemistry similar to this reds team. The 2010 Cardinals had to shave their heads to achieve unity, and we've seen how that's going. Two out of the five best Cardinals are fighting with each other.

Hmmm. Maybe I've missed something on this, so please, do tell! My hunch is, Carpenter is a difficult teamate. During the "brawl", sure looked like ex-teamate Rolen had no love for the whinny b*-#ch! (Phillips words were expressedly accurate, me thinks).

takealeake
09-02-2010, 12:32 AM
How about we win the next 3 games to make it even more difficult for the Cardinals to rally?

RedsLvr
09-02-2010, 01:04 AM
:O Just scored playoff tickets. Can't wait until they start.

mattfeet
09-02-2010, 09:13 AM
:O Just scored playoff tickets. Can't wait until they start.

how'd you get them already?

-matt

athinnes
09-02-2010, 09:34 AM
how'd you get them already?

-matt

Season ticket holders are the only ones that would have them this early. Registration for the drawing is going on now for everyone else at reds.com.

Girevik
09-02-2010, 11:51 AM
Season ticket holders are the only ones that would have them this early. Registration for the drawing is going on now for everyone else at reds.com.

Dang it! Why'd you spill the beans? I got an e-mail on that last night and hoped I'd be the only one registered and get to see a playoff game. :)

RedsLvr
09-02-2010, 02:55 PM
how'd you get them already?

-matt

I got them through work.

Hanover
09-02-2010, 03:29 PM
If the Reds go 23-6, they win the division if the Cardinals go 31-0.

That's the one we should shoot for.

LeDoux
09-02-2010, 11:10 PM
Sept 2, 2010. The Reds have the best record in the league!


:beerme: