Slap of Reality - Playoffs 2010

[GOYA]

Reds records against possible playoff teams

Atlanta – 2-3
Philly – 2-5
San Diego – 1-2
Frisco – 3-4

Record against St Louis – 5-10

The Reds have a winning record against EVERY other NL team and a winning record against the AL in interleague games.

We’re tied for the best record in the NL and are consistently beating the lesser teams in the league, but as the post season approaches, It’s time to face this question:

Are we not strong enough to win against the NL elite?

[max venable]

Just gotta get there, baby, and see what happens.

The good news, now that we're running away from the Cards, is that we'll be able to rest people, get guys healthy, and set our rotation.

Should be fun!

[Cedric]

Just look at those numbers and think about the games.

The Reds lost two games to the Braves and Phillies that were beyond miracles.

That's not even mentioning the absurd bad luck of the 4 game Philly series.

[max venable]

Cedric,

I was just thinking the same thing. We BLEW some huge leads in those games...and don't forget that was before we had the Chap Man!

[UKFlounder]

Games against bad teams count as much in the regular season as do games against the elite.

Those numbers are not pretty, but let's cross that bridge when we get there. If the Reds make the playoffs, then it's time to worry about it, but getting there is a huge first step we need to take.

[Roy Tucker]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/grid give a little perspective on it. Its axiomatic that most teams have losing records against winning teams.

If there are games to lose, I'd rather be losing to good teams than bad teams.

[Degenerate39]

Honestly they should be 5-0 against the Braves or 4-1

[OnBaseMachine]

On the surface, it appears the Reds were owned by the Braves and Phillies this season, but if you look closer, that's not the case at all. Check out the scores of those games:

Vs the Braves

Lost 5-4. Braves scored winning run with two outs in the bottom of the 9th.

Lost 10-9. Reds blew a 9-3 lead in the bottom of the 9th.

Lost 6-4 in 10 innings. Extra innings loss. Reds failed to get a runner in from third with only one out in 8th inning.

Won 5-2

Won 2-1

Vs the Phillies

Won 7-3

Lost 9-6 in 10 innings

Won 4-3.

Lost 4-3 in 12 innings.

Lost 9-7 in 10 innings. Reds blew a 7-1 lead in the bottom of the 9th inning.

Lost 1-0

Lost 1-0

Every single one of those losses to the Braves and Phillies were close games and could have went either way. The Reds could have easily swept the Phillies instead of being swept.

The Reds played the Padres way back in April when the Reds were playing awful baseball. The Reds split a four game series at home vs the Giants, and one of those losses was by one run. Now obviously the Giants beat up on the Reds in San Francisco, but that was the end of a nine game west coast roadtrip. I would be worried if the Reds had been blown out of the water by the Braves/Phillies but that's not the case.

[OesterPoster]

And how long ago was the San Diego series? I can't even remember anything about those games.

[Caveat Emperor]

The way Masset and Cordero are pitching now, and with the addition of Chapman as a hammer-arm for the 7th inning, I like our chances in a few of those games if they were to be replayed tomorrow.

The bigger issue for the Reds, IMO, is matching up with starters like Halladay, Hamels, and Latos.

[GOYA]

Personally, I think the San Diego series in late Sept is going to be big. If the Reds are going to be satisfied with reaching the playoffs or intend to win, that series is the time to make that statement.

Who do you all think will be our post-season rotation?

Arroyo
Cueto
Bailey ?

[GOYA]

And how long ago was the San Diego series? I can't even remember anything about those games.

In April
Lost 10-4
Lost 5-0
Won 5-4

[Hoosier Red]

Personally, I think the San Diego series in late Sept is going to be big. If the Reds are going to be satisfied with reaching the playoffs or intend to win, that series is the time to make that statement.

Who do you all think will be our post-season rotation?

Arroyo
Cueto
Bailey ?

Arroyo
Cueto
Harang

I think they may actually use those 3 pitchers in the rotation AND shorten up the starts on everyone(with a possible exception of Arroyo.)

If you plan on every starter going 5 innings, that means Ondrusek in 6th, Chapman in the 7th, Masset in the 8th, Cordero in the 9th. This still leaves Bray, Wood, and Rhodes from the left side with Bailey and LeCure from the Right hand side.

Obviously there's a lot of unproven, but I'm going to trust Logan Ondrusek and Chapman in the 6th and 7th innings alot more than the 6th or 7th inning of Cueto, Harang, Wood, or Bailey.

[Cedric]

I would most certainly want Wood getting a start against Philly if we met them, with their LH lineup.

That's considering he hasn't maxed out innings and he is still pitching good.

[traderumor]

It is difficult to see a correlation between regular season records against playoff teams. Playoffs are a totally different animal and unpredictable. The Reds have done what playoff contenders do--beat up on weak teams, have winning records against mediocre teams, and hold their own against playoff contenders, esp. at home. The Reds have won series at home against the teams mentioned except SD, and that series was early in the season.

[Hoosier Red]

Personally, I think the San Diego series in late Sept is going to be big. If the Reds are going to be satisfied with reaching the playoffs or intend to win, that series is the time to make that statement.


Overall, I think statement's speak more to fans than to players. The Cardinals came into the 2006 playoffs on the fumes of fumes. They had lost 12 of 17 in September and October, and had lost 9 of their last 12.

They were 4-11 against the three teams they would face in the playoffs(2-4 against SDP and NYM, and 0-3 against DET)

Once you get to the playoffs, first to 11 is all that matters.

[Cyclone792]

Personally, I think the San Diego series in late Sept is going to be big. If the Reds are going to be satisfied with reaching the playoffs or intend to win, that series is the time to make that statement.

Who do you all think will be our post-season rotation?

Arroyo
Cueto
Bailey ?

Barring any unforeseen setbacks, Arroyo and Cueto are locks. Beyond those two, the other two slots are pretty much up for grabs. Right now, they'd probably belong to Bailey and Wood, but this could change a half dozen times between now and October. All it takes is Volquez coming back up, throwing up seven zeros and suddenly his name will start appearing on these lists. That's how uncertain things are at the moment, I'm thinking.

My best guess is those last two slots will be filled via a combination of who's pitching well at the end of the season along with who matches up best with whichever team we face. For example, I believe there's a decent chance we'd see Wood in the rotation if he keeps pitching ok. Since Wood's a lefty, the Reds may feel he'd be a solid pick in an effort to try to neutralize guys such as McCann, Heyward, Howard, Utley and Gonzalez.

But at this point I think it's pretty wide open for those last two spots.

[OesterPoster]

The Padres are on fumes right now. Latos is in the gray area for innings pitched. Correia has taken a big step backwards recently, and they're giving Luebke his debut start tomorrow to limit innings on the other guys.

[Cyclone792]

I will also add this: it is crucial for the Reds bullpen to be the hammer that we think it can be.

That means ensuring Cordero's straightened out, as it appears he is. It means Masset staying on fire. It means getting Rhodes healthy, rested, strong and dominant again. It means Chapman stepping up and being the new weapon we hope he can be. It also means guys such as Ondrusek and Bray cruising along.

We don't have a TOR hammer like many of the other NL teams, but it's not so bad if our starters know that all we may need is six solid innings each time out. Manage the game to reach the 7th, then let the bullpen hammers take over from there. Suddenly the prospect of having to deal with a Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels, Hudson, Latos or whomever isn't as daunting.

[Ghosts of 1990]

Just gotta get there, baby, and see what happens.


Agree. Just get there and see how things fall. Unlikely heroes emerge for someone every fall. Nice to throw your name in the hat and be 1 of 8 in which a world series title emerges from. I think we're peaking at the right time.

[guttle11]

Lost 5-0


The day that ultimately changed the season. I remember it well, just a brutal effort. No life, picked off bases, no effort ABs...Dusty team meeting, FTW!

[HeatherC1212]

The day that ultimately changed the season. I remember it well, just a brutal effort. No life, picked off bases, no effort ABs...Dusty team meeting, FTW!

I still think I deserve something very expensive for doing the PBP in that game thread. That game was absolutely brutal to follow as a fan too, LOL :laugh:

I'll worry about the playoffs if/when we get there. Right now I'm having too much fun watching the guys win games. :beerme:

[Will M]

IMO the current Reds team is built to win during the long regular season. Only one superstar but lots & lots of depth. This isn't such a bad thing. You have to win during the regular season to actually make the post season. After that anything can happen (see St Louis in 2006). Now, if we win the NL Central three years running and each year have a one & out postseason, THEN I'll start to say "Hey, we need more TOR starters & MOR hitters". Until then I'll just enjoy the winning.

A strong pen & strong defense can go a long way. Get a Rijoesque performance out of Cueto & its 1990 all over again.

[WebScorpion]

A strong pen & strong defense can go a long way. Get a Rijoesque performance out of Cueto & its 1990 all over again.

This was kind of what I was thinking, except I think we have at least three starters capable of stepping up their game enough to dominate a short series. Cueto, Volquez, and Bailey. I'm not saying any of them WILL, just that I think they are capable of it. And next season we could possibly add Chapman to that list. ;)

[WVRedsFan]

Counting on Volquez to come back and go seven fantastic innings is fool's gold. The guy just got over TJ surgery, for crying out loud. I do not expect much from Edison and I don't think the Reds do either. the three starters who will start will be Arroyo, Cueto, and Harang. They will maybe add Wood and rely on their bullpen to do the rest. The key here is the offense. If they hit, the team will find a way to win. If they do not, we might be in big trouble. That said, just getting into the show this year is a bonus and I'm looking forward to it.

[mth123]

Counting on Volquez to come back and go seven fantastic innings is fool's gold. The guy just got over TJ surgery, for crying out loud. I do not expect much from Edison and I don't think the Reds do either. the three starters who will start will be Arroyo, Cueto, and Harang. They will maybe add Wood and rely on their bullpen to do the rest. The key here is the offense. If they hit, the team will find a way to win. If they do not, we might be in big trouble. That said, just getting into the show this year is a bonus and I'm looking forward to it.

The Rotation is problematic. Currently it consists of two number threes (Arroyo and Cueto), two number 5s (Bailey and Wood) and three guys I don't want near the post season roster (Harang, Volquez and Leake) who would seem to be the candidates.

I love how this season has gone and it certainly beats being stuck in the 75 win range, but some of you younger guys who haven't experienced the Reds in the play-offs may not realize how gut wrenching it is to lose once you get there. Still wish we could have grabbed Oswalt to settle this issue and be the staff ace in 2011 while the kids finish growing up. We need some one to step up and put together a Rijo-like run through the play-offs. I still think Bailey is the best bet to do that.

[GAC]

You play for that opportunity. That's what it's all about. Weren't the 90 Reds, who even went wire to wire in the division, underdogs (according to the "experts") to the vaunted Killer Bs of Pittsburgh, and then the A's?

[Eric_the_Red]

Counting on Volquez to come back and go seven fantastic innings is fool's gold. The guy just got over TJ surgery, for crying out loud. I do not expect much from Edison and I don't think the Reds do either. the three starters who will start will be Arroyo, Cueto, and Harang. They will maybe add Wood and rely on their bullpen to do the rest. The key here is the offense. If they hit, the team will find a way to win. If they do not, we might be in big trouble. That said, just getting into the show this year is a bonus and I'm looking forward to it.

I think I may take 5-6 innings from Edinson over Harang. I simply have no confidence in Harang anymore. It's sad because he had to go through so much of the bad times and now when the team is finally good, it looks as though his time is up.

[Reds1]

Reds records against possible playoff teams

Atlanta – 2-3
Philly – 2-5
San Diego – 1-2
Frisco – 3-4

Record against St Louis – 5-10

The Reds have a winning record against EVERY other NL team and a winning record against the AL in interleague games.

We’re tied for the best record in the NL and are consistently beating the lesser teams in the league, but as the post season approaches, It’s time to face this question:

Are we not strong enough to win against the NL elite?

But we didn't have Chapman in any of those games. That's how good he is. It's going to be fun!

[jojo]

Are we not strong enough to win against the NL elite?

Bring 'em on!

[Hollcat]

Just look at those numbers and think about the games.

The Reds lost two games to the Braves and Phillies that were beyond miracles.

That's not even mentioning the absurd bad luck of the 4 game Philly series.

I was thinking the same thing and also don't forget that San Francisco played so far over their heads in that series. I really wouldn't fear them that much. I don't want to have to play the Padres at SD and I'd rather not play the Phillies with Roy O and Halladay.

[deltachi8]

I have enjoyed this team this year and like the fact they have proved me wrong about having staying power.

I do not, however, feel they are built for the post season. I think they are prime for a disaster in a short series.

That's ok in a way. You build up a winning attitude, figured out many things about the team this year and now you can go get the missing piece or two to make it a great team, regular and post season.

[TheNext44]

I have enjoyed this team this year and like the fact they have proved me wrong about having staying power.

I do not, however, feel they are built for the post season. I think they are prime for a disaster in a short series.

That's ok in a way. You build up a winning attitude, figured out many things about the team this year and now you can go get the missing piece or two to make it a great team, regular and post season.

Right. This season is the first step towards respectability. Go as far as you can and build on it next season.

Heck, I would have been thrilled with a .500 record this season. Being in contention for the division title in Sept. i more than I imagined.

[PuffyPig]

The Rotation is problematic. Currently it consists of two number threes (Arroyo and Cueto), two number 5s (Bailey and Wood) and three guys I don't want near the post season roster (Harang, Volquez and Leake) who would seem to be the candidates.



A number 3 starter is basically a league average starter who gives you 180 innings and an ERA of maybe 4.50.

I'd call Arroyo and Cueto #2 starters easily.

And Bailey and Wood are a far cry from most teams #5 starters. See Suppan as an example.

[reds44]

I'm not really concerned about our record against winning teams this year, my biggest concern is out lack of a true ace. I just don't see how our starting pitching can match up with the Phillies or even the Cardinals in a series.

The Padres, Giants, Braves, we'd be fine against.

[membengal]

I think the only thing to do, if the Reds win the division, is politely apologize for doing so and decline the chance to compete in the playoffs.

[PuffyPig]

I'm not really concerned about our record against winning teams this year, my biggest concern is out lack of a true ace. I just don't see how our starting pitching can match up with the Phillies or even the Cardinals in a series.



Yet the Cards "great Big 3" have them teetering on playoff extinction. And you can't just blame it on the 4-5 guys, Carpenter and Wainwright have routinely failed to win during the Cards free fall.

We have beaten a number of "true aces" this year. We beat Josh Jonhson right after the Cards debacle. We beat Hallady earlier this season. I think Oswalt has beaten us about once in his last 6 starts.

The best pitchers win (themselves) about half of their starts. I don't care who we are facing, we likely have a 40% + chance of winning even the most "seemingly unwinnable" game.

Becuase that's baseball.

[PuffyPig]

I think the only thing to do, if the Reds win the division, is politely apologize for doing so and decline the chance to compete in the playoffs.


I wish I had typed this.....

[Roy Tucker]

My prediction is that Bronson Arroyo is going to go all World Series-level Jack Billingham and be a playoff stud.

[mth123]

A number 3 starter is basically a league average starter who gives you 180 innings and an ERA of maybe 4.50.

I'd call Arroyo and Cueto #2 starters easily.

And Bailey and Wood are a far cry from most teams #5 starters. See Suppan as an example.

That may be your definition. A number three starter is a guy I turn to to fill my play-off rotation when my hammers have already pitched. Numbers 4 and 5 are question marks and play-off teams avoid question marks in the post season.

How many other play-off teams would Arroyo or Cueto start game 1 or 2 for? Philly? No. Atlanta? No. The Yankees, Rays, Red Sox or Rangers? No, No, No, No. The Twins? No. The White Sox? No. The Giants? No. The Padres? Maybe at this point. They're number 3s.

Wood pitched like a number one for a while, but he's pitching like a number 5 now who has moved into uncharted territory from a workload standpoint. Bailey has been an enigma who should be better, but he hasn't been and most play-off teams wouldn't give him the ball.

[TheNext44]

That may be your definition. A number three starter is a guy I turn to to fill my play-off rotation when my hammers have already pitched. Numbers 4 and 5 are question marks and play-off teams avoid question marks in the post season.

How many other play-off teams would Arroyo or Cueto start game 1 or 2 for? Philly? No. Atlanta? No. The Yankees, Rays, Red Sox or Rangers? No, No, No, No. The Twins? No. The White Sox? No. The Giants? No. The Padres? Maybe at this point. They're number 3s.

Wood pitched like a number one for a while, but he's pitching like a number 5 now who has moved into uncharted territory from a workload standpoint. Bailey has been an enigma who should be better, but he hasn't been and most play-off teams wouldn't give him the ball.

Cueto is just as good as the every playoff teams #2 starter except for NY, Phillies and Cards. Arroyo is very close.

Cueto is a solid #2 starter and could be many teams #1. Arroyo would be many teams #2 starter.

And a #1 or #2 or #3 starter is determined by how they compare to all starters in the majors, not just contenders. You can argue that the Reds' #1 and #2 starters don't match up well against other teams #1 and #2 starters, but that is a seperate argument.

[mth123]

Cueto is just as good as the every playoff teams #2 starter except for NY, Phillies and Cards. Arroyo is very close.

Cueto is a solid #2 starter and could be many teams #1. Arroyo would be many teams #2 starter.

And a #1 or #2 or #3 starter is determined by how they compare to all starters in the majors, not just contenders. You can argue that the Reds' #1 and #2 starters don't match up well against other teams #1 and #2 starters, but that is a seperate argument.

This is where we disagree. I think its about how you'd want to line them up in a play-off series, otherwise it really doesn't matter.

[TheNext44]

This is where we disagree. I think its about how you'd want to line them up in a play-off series, otherwise it really doesn't matter.

Even if we use your definition, Cueto is easily a #2 and Arroyo is very close to one. They may not be better than other contenders #2's, but they aren't worst than most contenders #2's either.

As for the logic of your definition, what if most of the contending teams have average pitchers, and most of the best pitchers are on non contending teams? Could happen. Would that mean that Josh Fogg is a #3 starter? ;)

[Griffey012]

That may be your definition. A number three starter is a guy I turn to to fill my play-off rotation when my hammers have already pitched. Numbers 4 and 5 are question marks and play-off teams avoid question marks in the post season.

How many other play-off teams would Arroyo or Cueto start game 1 or 2 for? Philly? No. Atlanta? No. The Yankees, Rays, Red Sox or Rangers? No, No, No, No. The Twins? No. The White Sox? No. The Giants? No. The Padres? Maybe at this point. They're number 3s.

Wood pitched like a number one for a while, but he's pitching like a number 5 now who has moved into uncharted territory from a workload standpoint. Bailey has been an enigma who should be better, but he hasn't been and most play-off teams wouldn't give him the ball.

I really feel like you are underrating Cueto. Arroyo I can agree with you on. Cueto isn't a #1. But he fits the perfect definition of a solid #2.

[mth123]

I really feel like you are underrating Cueto. Arroyo I can agree with you on. Cueto isn't a #1. But he fits the perfect definition of a solid #2.

Maybe if he repeats what he has done this year a couple more times. I just think he's a guy who gets out of whack and overthrows too frequently. I also don't like the fact that the 170 to 175 IP he's had in prior years will be well in his review mirror by the time October rolls around. He's just not enough of a sure thing for me to consider him a number two at this point. That said, he can pitch with those guys, he's just more iffy IMO.

[mth123]

FWIW, there is no shame in being a number 3 starter. IMO, Andy Pettitte is a guy who I've considered a number three for most of his career. He may have been a little better than that his first couple years, but has really been a number three for the last 10+ years or so.

[jojo]

Pettitte has been one of the better lefties in the majors during his career (career FIP=3.75 primarily as an AL arm). It's a tough grading system to call him a #3 IMHO. That would mean that Harang has been a backender for his career....

[mth123]

Pettitte has been one of the better lefties in the majors during his career (career FIP=3.75 primarily as an AL arm). It's a tough grading system to call him a #3 IMHO. That would mean that Harang has been a backender for his career....

Since 2002, I really don't see much difference between he and Arroyo as far as results go. Eat innings. Keep teams in games. Not really dominant. Pettitte did have one awesome year in Houston that Arroyo can't match. Maybe Pettite is a weak to average number 2 while Arroyo is a strong three to weak two, but that one season is really all that appears to be much different during that time frame. Pettitte was a number 1 from 95 through 97 and has had the better career, but most seasons since then, he has given his team basically the same thing Arroyo gives the Reds.

[hebroncougar]

Since 2002, I really don't see much difference between he and Arroyo as far as results go. Eat innings. Keep teams in games. Not really dominant. Pettitte did have one awesome year in Houston that Arroyo can't match. Maybe Pettite is a weak to average number 2 while Arroyo is a strong three to weak two, but that one season is really all that appears to be much different during that time frame. Pettitte was a number 1 from 95 through 97 and has had the better career, but most seasons since then, he has given his team basically the same thing Arroyo gives the Reds.

The stats are similar, but the opponents are not. There is a major difference in pitching in the AL East, and the NL Central.

[Chip R]

The stats are similar, but the opponents are not. There is a major difference in pitching in the AL East, and the NL Central.

Which both have done.

[mth123]

The stats are similar, but the opponents are not. There is a major difference in pitching in the AL East, and the NL Central.

Fair point. A lefty in Yankee stadium has an advantage. A Righty at GABP is at a disadvantage.