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View Full Version : What's Wrong with the Wreds?



redssince75
09-08-2010, 08:02 AM
Anyone remember that SI cover? I think from Eric Davis era...maybe even earlier, when Pete was player-manager.

Time to break it out again?

Nah...the whole point of having such a great August was being able to survive the inevitable slide. Looking forward to wrighting the wreds against the Pirates this weekend, with me in attendance.

:thumbup:

RedsFanInBama
09-08-2010, 08:18 AM
I think it just is what it is. We seem to get handled by good teams. Luckily after the next two most of our games aren't against good teams. Well, until the playoffs.

will5979
09-08-2010, 08:45 AM
Whats wrong is that the Reds aren't as good as we thought, er hoped they were. These big games are a major reality check. Now don't get me wrong a collaspe in September would hurt worse than anything, but I really do not expect them to win a postseason GAME.

Girevik
09-08-2010, 08:57 AM
I'm about as pessimistic as they come, but I'm not ready to step up to the ledge yet. Monday the Reds were looking good until Harang forgot how to get a guy out, and last night there was basically one mistake for a 3 run HR. Harang won't be pitching come October (he may not pitch anymore in September, either), and more often than not Cueto is going to come through. I don't think it's time to hit the panic button yet.

New York Red
09-08-2010, 09:12 AM
Just as happened after the STL series a month ago, there's too much overreaction. We've lost three in a row, against two teams that just own us lately. One against Carpenter, who we had on the ropes and let slip away. And now two at Coors Field, where the Rockies have owned us for quite awhile now. The common denominator these three games, in my opinion, has been a lack of hitting with RISP. It's important that we win at least one before we leave Denver, then we should be fine the rest of the way. This Reds team has shown all season how resilient they are, and they will show it again.

mlh1981
09-08-2010, 09:15 AM
We are a good offensive team, but when we slump........it's just nasty.

I'd imagine a lot of teams have trouble against Carpenter/Wainwright, and going to Coors Field, so our struggles aren't unique.

Still, though.....those are the type of things we will be dealing with in the postseason.

brm7675
09-08-2010, 10:05 AM
There are a couple of things you can point to. First it's September and for the older players their bodies are just not able to produce like they could earlier in the season. Second these are road games at very tough places to win even if the teams are not very good. Third, the Rockies are hot right now, we faced their ACE and a rookie and for whatever reason the Reds have a history of struggling aginst Pitchers they face for the first time ever. Fourth, our hottest hitter was hurt in a stupid post game celebration and we are only carrying 3 OF with no other option. Lastly, we have never been in this position before, there is a huge difference in being chased and doing the chasing.

gmt
09-08-2010, 10:17 AM
Most of the time a team that is in first place at the beginning of September, they will win the division. The worst collapse in recent history was the NY Mets in 2007. On Sept 12, they were 7 games ahead of the Phillies with 17 games to go. The Mets were 21 games over .500 (.572 winning percentage) and probably had champagne ordered for an anticipated clinching a little over a week later. They had remaining games versus the phillies (who swept them in 3 games), the cardinals (0 -1 versus a 78 - 84 team), the Nationals (1 - 5 against a 73 - 89 team) and the Marlins (4 - 3 against a 71 - 91 team). That was 5 - 12 versus a schedule that was .480 winning percentage for the season. The Phillies overtook them and went to the playoffs while the Mets went home.

Such an epic collapse is not likely for any team, but as long as there are games to play, just avoiding/preventing streaky play is important. Keeping a lead of at least 5 games is sort of a checkpoint. When a lead is 4, it doesn't seem so insurmountable. At least splitting the next 2 at Colorado will keep the Cardinals at least 5 games behind heading into the weekend series vs the Pirates.

Hey Meat
09-08-2010, 10:20 AM
We have the biggest lead in the National League. The only real quality team that we play following this series are the Padres. Don't forget the Cards' record against mediocre teams. In addition they have the Braves this weekend and we have the Buckos. We are Okay. Not time to panic yet.

GIDP
09-08-2010, 10:21 AM
Nothing, they arent playing their best ball but its not anything to be worried about. Stranding runners happens, botching some routine plays happen. We have enough sample size to know how good this team is.

Base running is probably the biggest problem right now. Lots of running into outs.

Captain13
09-08-2010, 10:31 AM
Nothing, they arent playing their best ball but its not anything to be worried about. Stranding runners happens, botching some routine plays happen. We have enough sample size to know how good this team is.

Base running is probably the biggest problem right now. Lots of running into outs.

This base running problem has me perplexed. Earlier in the season it was the good smart aggressive base running that was the Reds biggest advantage, now it seems it's over-aggressive amateur mistakes that are costing the team runners (and runs). :eek:

TheBigLebowski
09-08-2010, 10:39 AM
Rotation is a mess. Two reliable starters who are both prone to implosion in Johnny Fever and Arroyo. Arroyo used to plug JTM Taco Filling, so he's not exactly a superstar.

If Harang ever starts again, I give. We simply don't want to win if we go there.

Volquez is a mess.

I am, as usual, higher on Homer than most. His last start against STL was not bad at all. If the Reds weren't so freaking petrified of Chris Carpenter, he probably would have won.

Travis Wood scares the hell out of me.

The Maloneys and LeCures of the world are only going to be, at best, servicable.

It's almost funny how, only a few weeks ago, RedsZone was foaming at the collective mouths over our SP depth. "No need to pick up a pitcher, they say. The next night, the starting pitching fairy shows up, steals the money off the counter, and your daughter is knocked up. I've seen it a million times..." (ripped that from "Tommy Boy"). Rotation is a mess.

Jay Bruce was hitting better than anyone in baseball and now is out with some mysterious rib-cage injury. I admit I don't read twitter or blogs, so maybe other people know more about this than me, but the whole thing just seems weird.

Here is a list of our batters that are strugglin' -

Votto (no more 3x crown talk)
Rolen (Really, really tailed off after the first half offensively)
Phillips (done with this dude - for many reasons)
Gomes (possibly the worst established starter in baseball)
Heisey (after a few nice games, appears completely overmatched by MLB pitching)

There's a lot wrong with the Wreds. A lot.

gmt
09-08-2010, 10:42 AM
There's nothing wrong with the Reds. For a matter of perspective, over a 19 game spread, the better teams on average go 5 - 4 and 6 - 4 (11 - 8 for a .579 percentage). In isolation, winning 5 and losing 4 doesn't look so good. Winning 6 and losing 4 is good but doesn't inspire at that moment any great feelings of running away with anything. An 11 -8 pace over an entire season gets you 94 wins by the end of the season. There will be good times and bad times. August was good. September so-so to this point based on just the last 5 games. Come back after the next 5 games, which includes the Pirates for 3, and see where the Reds are at that point. If after those 10 games their record is 1 - 9, something is wrong. At least 4 - 6 is probably alright.

GIDP
09-08-2010, 10:49 AM
This base running problem has me perplexed. Earlier in the season it was the good smart aggressive base running that was the Reds biggest advantage, now it seems it's over-aggressive amateur mistakes that are costing the team runners (and runs). :eek:

I think its just that some guys tend to run the bases stupidly, and close games magnifies it. They have been doing a ton more lately though. Phillips is the biggest problem right now. He cant steal bags anymore with out being caught 40-60% of the time, and he runs into so many outs in front of Votto and Rolen it magnifies it.

brm7675
09-08-2010, 11:03 AM
We have the biggest lead in the National League. The only real quality team that we play following this series are the Padres. Don't forget the Cards' record against mediocre teams. In addition they have the Braves this weekend and we have the Buckos. We are Okay. Not time to panic yet.

Have you not seen what the Astros have done? While not great, we have to go to their park and Milwaukee. I also think the Braves are falling apart and see the Cards taking 3 if not all 4.

Hey Meat
09-08-2010, 11:11 AM
I have seen what they have done against every one else other than the Reds. I was there for two out of 3 games the last time the Reds went to Houston in late July. I still think we will be fine against them. Don't panic.

Still I don't think the Cards will win the series in Atlanta. They will lose at least 2 of those games.

brm7675
09-08-2010, 11:11 AM
Rotation is a mess. Two reliable starters who are both prone to implosion in Johnny Fever and Arroyo. Arroyo used to plug JTM Taco Filling, so he's not exactly a superstar.

I couldn't disagree more. Cueto and Bronson have been fine and even last night, Cueto pitched a very good game. Arroyo isn't a superstar, but he is a gamer, he will keep you in games and win more then he loses.

If Harang ever starts again, I give. We simply don't want to win if we go there.

Volquez is a mess.
he is coming off major arm surgery, how can you expect anything less?

I am, as usual, higher on Homer than most. His last start against STL was not bad at all. If the Reds weren't so freaking petrified of Chris Carpenter, he probably would have won.

Travis Wood scares the hell out of me.
Why does he scare you?

The Maloneys and LeCures of the world are only going to be, at best, servicable.

maloney you may be right but lecure I think has what it takes to be a quality pitcher on this level.

It's almost funny how, only a few weeks ago, RedsZone was foaming at the collective mouths over our SP depth. "No need to pick up a pitcher, they say. The next night, the starting pitching fairy shows up, steals the money off the counter, and your daughter is knocked up. I've seen it a million times..." (ripped that from "Tommy Boy"). Rotation is a mess.

Our problem is not the pitching but our bats. We are not scoring runners like we did earlier in teh season when with RISP we were golden. Pitching is not a concern.

Jay Bruce was hitting better than anyone in baseball and now is out with some mysterious rib-cage injury. I admit I don't read twitter or blogs, so maybe other people know more about this than me, but the whole thing just seems weird.

simple, more injury coming from post game celebrations, he won't be back till at least the Pirate series and probably will take 3-4 games to back his swing.

Here is a list of our batters that are strugglin' -

Votto (no more 3x crown talk)
Rolen (Really, really tailed off after the first half offensively)
Phillips (done with this dude - for many reasons)
Gomes (possibly the worst established starter in baseball)
Heisey (after a few nice games, appears completely overmatched by MLB pitching)

There's a lot wrong with the Wreds. A lot.

Not alot that can not be fixed, Rolen is just worn down do to age, Phillips is still a stud and Gomes is not an everyday player. Heisey and Stubbs both are rookies, how many rookies do you know not struggle in their first few seasons?

brm7675
09-08-2010, 11:15 AM
I have seen what they have done against every one else other than the Reds. I was there for two out of 3 games the last time the Reds went to Houston in late July. I still think we will be fine against them. Don't panic.

Still I don't think the Cards will win the series in Atlanta. They will lose at least 2 of those games.

A) The stros team has played some of the best ball in baseball over the past few weeks, this is not the same team we played back in July

B) The Braves on teh other hand are in deep free fall. They have lost their lead in teh division and are heading towards not making the playoffs. Cards easily win series and possibly sweep.

gmt
09-08-2010, 11:25 AM
A) The stros team has played some of the best ball in baseball over the past few weeks, this is not the same team we played back in July

B) The Braves on teh other hand are in deep free fall. They have lost their lead in teh division and are heading towards not making the playoffs. Cards easily win series and possibly sweep.

I agree with "A", the Astros are getting good pitching and timely hitting of late. Writing them off is the wrong thing to do at this point. They are playing with a young lineup with a lot to prove.

B: I don't see the Cardinals sweeping. They have not shown the ability to put 3 good games in a row since they beat the Reds well over a month ago. Three of four maybe; more likely a split.

The Reds need to get their own job done vs the Pirates. The Pirates have shown the ability to get a couple good games in a row together of late.

brm7675
09-08-2010, 11:43 AM
I agree with "A", the Astros are getting good pitching and timely hitting of late. Writing them off is the wrong thing to do at this point. They are playing with a young lineup with a lot to prove.

B: I don't see the Cardinals sweeping. They have not shown the ability to put 3 good games in a row since they beat the Reds well over a month ago. Three of four maybe; more likely a split.

The Reds need to get their own job done vs the Pirates. The Pirates have shown the ability to get a couple good games in a row together of late.

I agree with the Pirates, but with them in cincy that helps. It will be interesting to see the crowds at these games. With Sat game being the pete rose game, it should help with attendance.

CrosleyField
09-11-2010, 10:31 PM
Not Much