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RedEye
09-08-2010, 03:19 PM
Does anyone else think this should be the starting Reds OF in 2011? If you are following the current Gomes poll, you know my motivations in posting this. I get the sense that starting Bruce and Stubbs is pretty much the team's (and the RZ) consensus for next year. Barring a big free agent signing or a trade, I think Heisey is the best option to be the third amigo. Thoughts?

cumberlandreds
09-08-2010, 03:22 PM
I don't think Heisey is an every day outfielder. A good 4th one,yes. The Reds need to look for a really good power bat in the off season. A LF is preferable for that.

bucksfan2
09-08-2010, 03:25 PM
If Heisey was the best Reds LF they could muster this off season I will be seriously disappointed. Its time for the Reds to pony up and get an impact bat for the LF position. Nothing against Heisey I just don't see him as much more than a 4th OF. Nice guy to have on your team, but not a guy you want to have to count on offense from.

traderumor
09-08-2010, 03:26 PM
I agree on Heisey. His audition for full-time lead role has failed miserably.

Griffey012
09-08-2010, 03:31 PM
I would prefer Heisey - Stubbs - Bruce to the current outfield of Gomes - Stubbs - Bruce. However, I agree with Cumberland that I am not sure Heisey is a sure fire starting outfielder. I do understand this is his first extended stint in the bigs so I am more than open to him proving himself next season if the staff thinks he has the tools to man the job.

So barring some upgrade I think it's the best option. I also believe Wladimir, Frazier, and even Alonso and JuanF should be given a shot to win the job in ST. The last 2 are long long shots as left fielders, but we don't have room for their bats right now.

I fantasize about the thoughts of Carl Crawford in LF...

westofyou
09-08-2010, 03:34 PM
I agree on Heisey. His audition for full-time lead role has failed miserably.

Stupid stat of the day.

He has 5 HBP in 161 ab's, Juan Castro has 1 in 2834 ab's

Brutus
09-08-2010, 03:46 PM
Stupid stat of the day.

He has 5 HBP in 161 ab's, Juan Castro has 1 in 2834 ab's

His ability to be hit by a pitch is incredible.

RedsManRick
09-08-2010, 04:00 PM
Given the players currently in the organization, I think that's our best OF. However, I would love to see somebody body than Heisey in LF in 2011.

Judging Heisey in 183 PA is premature. He hit much better than expected as a PH and has struggled some as a starter. At the same time, I think he's more or less meeting expectations -- a roughly .800 OPS bat who can play plus defense. Given 600 PA in LF, I think we're looking at a guy who is roughly league average.

mbgrayson
09-08-2010, 04:05 PM
I wasn't sure whether to post this here or in the Gomes poll...I picked here.


Chris Heisey:

Chris Heisey full season stats for his age 25 season in 2010:
161 ABs, .255/.333/.441 for an OPS of .774 with 7 HRs

Chris Heisey in August:
53 ABs, .226/.333/.340 for an OPS of .673 with 1 HR

Chris in September (thru 9/7/10)
24 ABs, .208/.208/.292 for an OPS of .500 with 0 HRs

Defense: Preliminary numbers (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3978&position=OF)show that Heisey is +3.9 runs above replacement value on defense.

Jonny Gomes:

Jonny Gomes full season stats for his age 29 season in 2010:
427 ABs, .262/.328/.436 for an OPS of .763 with 16 HRs

Jonny Gomes in August:
70 ABs, .229/.357/.343 for an OPS of .700 with 2 HRs

Jonny Gomes in September (thru 9/7/10):
23 ABs, .261/.320.478 for an OPS of .798 with 1 HR

Defense: Preliminary numbers (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1845&position=DH/OF)show that Gomes is -14.7 runs below replacement value on defense.

So overall, Heisey is the better choice in left compared to Gomes. However, I really question whether his bat is good enough to give the Reds sufficient production from a left fielder. Left field should really be a position that yields very strong hitting production in a MLB lineup. I can't see Heisey producing at a high enough level if the last six weeks are any guide.

lollipopcurve
09-08-2010, 04:09 PM
I'd like to see them give Alonso a shot out there unless he's truly horrid.

westofyou
09-08-2010, 04:13 PM
Heisey is getting good swings early in the count, but once a pitcher gets past a certain point with him, he becomes extremely vulnerable.

What's this?
One-pitch plate appearances are One and Done, while 7 Up is plate appearances of seven pitches or more. All plate appearances of three pitches or less (including one and done) are included in “short” at bats, and all plate appearances of four pitches or more are included in “long” at bats.

To give this profile some context, here are the league averages for 2007:

1 and done: .344/.349/.543 .892 OPS
Short(1-3): .301/.317/.467 .784 OPS
Long (4+): .223/.352/.348 .700 OPS
7 Up (7+): .230/.406/.372 .778 OPS








AB H HR RBI Avg OBP Slg OPS
One and done 16 9 1 4 .563 .588 .813 1.401
Short 82 29 5 11 .354 .369 .602 .971
Long 79 12 2 4 .152 .309 .263 .572
7 Up 12 1 0 0 .083 .353 .167 .520

edabbs44
09-08-2010, 04:17 PM
Heisey's lack of success vs SPs early in the game absolutely boggles the mind.

In 75 PAs in his first 2 trips to the plate vs a SP, he has 12 TBs.

In 75 PAs in his first ab vs a RP, he has 48 TBs.

He has also fanned twice as much against the SP in those same samples. He has 6 HR vs the RP and only 9 total hits vs the SP.

Very weird.

thatcoolguy_22
09-08-2010, 04:33 PM
Between his 1st pitch hit ability and performance against RP vs SP, I would think that Heisey is just a fastball hitter. It would make sense, but I don't get to watch half the games. Any thoughts?

Brutus
09-08-2010, 04:40 PM
Between his 1st pitch hit ability and performance against RP vs SP, I would think that Heisey is just a fastball hitter. It would make sense, but I don't get to watch half the games. Any thoughts?

Fangraphs shows him being just slightly above average against the Fastball. This year he's been above average against the slider and below average against a changeup and curve.

edabbs44
09-08-2010, 04:41 PM
Maybe he is purely a guess hitter at this stage and it is easier to guess vs a reliever than it is vs a starter due to pitch types?

fearofpopvol1
09-08-2010, 04:42 PM
I'd like to see them give Alonso a shot out there unless he's truly horrid.

This is my sentiment too. Is he any worse than Gomes out there? His bat is better.

If Alonso isn't the answer, then the Reds should look to trade Alonso to find that answer.

Chip R
09-08-2010, 04:44 PM
Does everyone who is bagging on Heisey realize he hasn't been in the big leagues for a full season?

edabbs44
09-08-2010, 04:54 PM
Given the players currently in the organization, I think that's our best OF. However, I would love to see somebody body than Heisey in LF in 2011.

Judging Heisey in 183 PA is premature. He hit much better than expected as a PH and has struggled some as a starter. At the same time, I think he's more or less meeting expectations -- a roughly .800 OPS bat who can play plus defense. Given 600 PA in LF, I think we're looking at a guy who is roughly league average.

on what basis would you call him an .800 bat?

Kc61
09-08-2010, 05:06 PM
If the Reds are going to compete for championships, why wouldn't they go out and get a true, starting caliber, good hitting left fielder?

Why wait for Heisey possibly to become an .800 bat someday, maybe?

Why use Alonso in left field where, defensively, he would likely be a liability?

Falling in love with prospects is not a good idea. Often they don't fit the need. Or don't pan out. Or both.

Trade the prospects and get someone who hits and fields like a middle-of-the-order outfielder, or possibly a solid lead-off hitting outfielder.

Or get a free agent. Trade for Markakis. Pay Jayson Werth. That's the caliber of player a championship club seeks.

Homer Bailey
09-08-2010, 05:13 PM
I'd walk to Cincinnati to hug Walt myself if he was able to sign Jayson Werth to play left. He's over 30, but he's one of the most patient hitters in the game, hits for power, and has historically been a pretty good defender.

Brutus
09-08-2010, 05:29 PM
This is my sentiment too. Is he any worse than Gomes out there? His bat is better.

If Alonso isn't the answer, then the Reds should look to trade Alonso to find that answer.

He's had less than 10 Major League at-bats. I don't we know his bat is better than anything yet.

That said, I'm not unopposed to trading Alonso for something proven in left or at short if it could make the club better.

flyer85
09-08-2010, 05:34 PM
Need a better bat than Gomes/Heisey to play LF. Heisey, because of defense, is likely a better option than Gomes in 2011 but the Reds need a solution not a stopgap.

Will M
09-08-2010, 05:35 PM
i agree with those who say we could really use a stud bat for LF in 2011.
i expect that if the Reds brain trust feels Alonso is ok defensively in left then we may see an outfield of Bruce-Stubbs-Alonso/Heisey. This is the 'poor man's option'. It doesn't make you dream of hanging a world series banner.

A team hoping to make the playoffs could really use more than one bat that can OPS+ better than 110. This year we have Votto & Rolen. However, I believe Rolen's power has disappeared since June & I question whether he will put up those strong numbers next year. Maybe Bruce will, maybe not. It sure would be nice to have a 3-4 punch like the Cardinals do. Then guys like Phillips, Bruce, Rolen, the catching combo,etc can be complimentary. Just imagine what the Reds' offense would look like with a guy like Matt Holliday in the 4 spot...

2B Phillips
RF Bruce or 3B Rolen
1B Votto
LF Monster bat
3B Rolen or RF Bruce
C Hernandez/Hanigan
CF Stubbs
SS Janish

IMO thats the kind of offense needed to get to & succeed in the playoffs.
If the team can add a big bat for LF & add it to the mix of quality pitching/defense we could really have something next year.

Always Red
09-08-2010, 05:36 PM
If the Reds are going to compete for championships, why wouldn't they go out and get a true, starting caliber, good hitting left fielder?

Why wait for Heisey possibly to become an .800 bat someday, maybe?

Why use Alonso in left field where, defensively, he would likely be a liability?

Falling in love with prospects is not a good idea. Often they don't fit the need. Or don't pan out. Or both.

Trade the prospects and get someone who hits and fields like a middle-of-the-order outfielder, or possibly a solid lead-off hitting outfielder.

Or get a free agent. Trade for Markakis. Pay Jayson Werth. That's the caliber of player a championship club seeks.

:thumbup: sign me up for some of this.

Next year is the year to spend some coin and go for it. While they're at it, they should find a TOR starter, too.

The expiration date on Rolen has me slightly concerned, and Phillips starts getting very expensive next year as well.

flyer85
09-08-2010, 05:39 PM
they could sign Carl Crawford. :D

bucksfan2
09-08-2010, 05:43 PM
they could sign Carl Crawford. :D

I think Carl Crawford makes a ton of sense for the Reds. He fits a couple of needs in an improved LF and a leadoff hitter. He also fits the mold that the Reds are trying to build around in a solid defender who is aggressive on the base paths. I don't think the Reds will get involved in the bidding but I wouldn't hesitate in signing Crawford if it were possible.

backbencher
09-08-2010, 05:52 PM
Next year is the year to spend some coin and go for it. While they're at it, they should find a TOR starter, too.

Where is this coin going to come from? The 16,000 fans in the seats for the September home games? The lowest ticket prices in the majors?

Castellini has been boxing far above his weight in the spending department. The team payroll is 23rd, several spots above Cincinnati's revenue. The Reds layouts also include an expensive manager, expensive Latin American signings and expensive draft classes.

Assuming minimal raises (rather than substantial LTDs) for the likes of Votto and Cueto, the Reds probably have a few million to play with. They will have more if they decline Arroyo's option. But the team certainly has not skimped on payroll this year, nor is it likely to be flush with house money for 2011.

LF almost certainly will have to be manned economically. Fortunately, the Reds are in a pretty good position to be able to do so.

BRM
09-08-2010, 06:03 PM
Does everyone who is bagging on Heisey realize he hasn't been in the big leagues for a full season?

We expect rookies to make immediate impacts around here.

Brutus
09-08-2010, 06:04 PM
Where is this coin going to come from? The 16,000 fans in the seats for the September home games? The lowest ticket prices in the majors?

Castellini has been boxing far above his weight in the spending department. The team payroll is 23rd, several spots above Cincinnati's revenue. The Reds layouts also include an expensive manager, expensive Latin American signings and expensive draft classes.

Assuming minimal raises (rather than substantial LTDs) for the likes of Votto and Cueto, the Reds probably have a few million to play with. They will have more if they decline Arroyo's option. But the team certainly has not skimped on payroll this year, nor is it likely to be flush with house money for 2011.

LF almost certainly will have to be manned economically. Fortunately, the Reds are in a pretty good position to be able to do so.

Attendance usually trails a good or great season the next year. Season ticket sales usually increase in the offseason and more fans come out to the ballpark the following spring.

backbencher
09-08-2010, 06:21 PM
Attendance usually trails a good or great season the next year. Season ticket sales usually increase in the offseason and more fans come out to the ballpark the following spring.

Certainly true. Doesn't make the Reds flush, though.

Basically, the Reds have about $9MM and four (main) ways to spend it:

1. Arroyo (or FA pitcher/trade acquisision SP other than Arroyo)
3. LF
4. SS
5. LTDs for Votto/Bruce/Cueto

$9MM is good upper middle-class money in MLB, but it will not get a single star player. And, with the nucleus of young talent on the team, it seems unlikely that the best use of the Reds' payroll is to ink a star player to a multi-year deal, anyway.

Brutus
09-08-2010, 06:28 PM
Certainly true. Doesn't make the Reds flush, though.

Basically, the Reds have about $9MM and four (main) ways to spend it:

1. Arroyo (or FA pitcher/trade acquisision SP other than Arroyo)
3. LF
4. SS
5. LTDs for Votto/Bruce/Cueto

$9MM is good upper middle-class money in MLB, but it will not get a single star player. And, with the nucleus of young talent on the team, it seems unlikely that the best use of the Reds' payroll is to ink a star player to a multi-year deal, anyway.

Where are you getting $9 Mil? Last I saw... there could be close to $20 million before those things (before Arbitration that is) without regard to Arroyo's option. That's assuming there is no increase in payroll.

If the Reds increase by roughly $3-5 million, and wind up not picking up Arroyo's option, there actually could end up being some to work with.

I don't think you'll see long term deals signed on Bruce/Votto/Cueto. I imagine you'll see an extension for one of them and a salary agreement, avoiding arbitration, for the other two.

I(heart)Freel
09-08-2010, 06:30 PM
Assuming Votto continues to hit for power (which seems safe), I don't think the Reds need a monster bat in the cleanup spot, per se. However, the man clearly needs protection. Just doesn't have to be a "monster bat."

I'd much prefer a true lead-off type in left field. Gives Votto more chances to drive in a run and keeps the focus on pitching/defense (assuming leadoff guy can catch a ball).

Heisey would be a good 4th OF in 2011, if only to make him earn his way into a starting role. That seems to motivate a player better than anything.

I(heart)Freel
09-08-2010, 06:33 PM
PS There is serious money to be made in the playoffs.

If the Reds host 3-5 games, they could see an influx of cash that basically pays for a free agent. That says nothing about the uptick in season ticket sales in 2011 that inevitably follows.

The playoffs could be really good for this club for a multitude of reasons.

corkedbat
09-08-2010, 06:42 PM
I like Heisey as a fouth OF and his ability to step up at all three spots. It's good that he its RH'd to, because my plan for LF in 2011 would be Carlos Gonazalez. The unfortunate part of my plan depends on the Rox jumping on an offer of Alonso and Volquez for him and I don't see that happening.

Brutus
09-08-2010, 06:44 PM
PS There is serious money to be made in the playoffs.

If the Reds host 3-5 games, they could see an influx of cash that basically pays for a free agent. That says nothing about the uptick in season ticket sales in 2011 that inevitably follows.

The playoffs could be really good for this club for a multitude of reasons.

Great point. A first round exit alone gives a team an extra $5-10 million, if I remember correctly. Getting further into the playoffs can produce upwards to $17-20 million.

Always Red
09-08-2010, 06:45 PM
Where is this coin going to come from? The 16,000 fans in the seats for the September home games? The lowest ticket prices in the majors?

Castellini has been boxing far above his weight in the spending department. The team payroll is 23rd, several spots above Cincinnati's revenue. The Reds layouts also include an expensive manager, expensive Latin American signings and expensive draft classes.

Assuming minimal raises (rather than substantial LTDs) for the likes of Votto and Cueto, the Reds probably have a few million to play with. They will have more if they decline Arroyo's option. But the team certainly has not skimped on payroll this year, nor is it likely to be flush with house money for 2011.

LF almost certainly will have to be manned economically. Fortunately, the Reds are in a pretty good position to be able to do so.

The Reds have the 3rd or 4th best TV audience in MLB, and have also sold much more MLB merchandise this year than in years past.

As you say, no doubt a bigger attendance would help. But attendance is not everything. No one here (unless they are insiders to the FO) has any idea of just how much house money is available.

But we all know that winning produces profits.

My point is that next year the window of opportunity is open, and who knows for how long? IMO, next year is not the year to try to cobble together a SS, a LF and some back end SP's. If they choose to go cheap next year, I think they miss a great chance to win it all.

RedsManRick
09-08-2010, 06:50 PM
Heisey is getting good swings early in the count, but once a pitcher gets past a certain point with him, he becomes extremely vulnerable.

What's this?
One-pitch plate appearances are One and Done, while 7 Up is plate appearances of seven pitches or more. All plate appearances of three pitches or less (including one and done) are included in “short” at bats, and all plate appearances of four pitches or more are included in “long” at bats.

To give this profile some context, here are the league averages for 2007:

1 and done: .344/.349/.543 .892 OPS
Short(1-3): .301/.317/.467 .784 OPS
Long (4+): .223/.352/.348 .700 OPS
7 Up (7+): .230/.406/.372 .778 OPS



AB H HR RBI Avg OBP Slg OPS
One and done 16 9 1 4 .563 .588 .813 1.401
Short 82 29 5 11 .354 .369 .602 .971
Long 79 12 2 4 .152 .309 .263 .572
7 Up 12 1 0 0 .083 .353 .167 .520



Interesting data Woy. Of course, we're dealing with small samples here. So it's fair to use this to describe how he's performed, but we're on shaky ground if we're suggesting a casual relationship -- that is, that he actually has a characteristic in his ability that will continue to lead to this sort of a split in the future.

westofyou
09-08-2010, 06:58 PM
Interesting data Woy. Of course, we're dealing with small samples here. So it's fair to use this to describe how he's performed, but we're on shaky ground if we're suggesting a casual relationship -- that is, that he actually has a characteristic in his ability that will continue to lead to this sort of a split in the future.

This plays in to two things:

A. Dusty preaches being aggressive on balls in the zone early in the count (as does being a PH)

B. MLB pitching is good, the longer you see it the more your weaknesses are revealed and exploited.

It's an adjustment game for sure, early in his MLB life I'm seeing that he needs to work on adjusting deeper in the count.

edabbs44
09-08-2010, 07:00 PM
Does everyone who is bagging on Heisey realize he hasn't been in the big leagues for a full season?

But what can we truly expect from him? He ha a really nice 200 or so PA run at AA and had some moments this year, but isn't it likely that maybe he has been a tad overrated by some?

Giving him more time might not be warranted. Sure he could bloom into a nice OFer, but he could also give us more of what we have been seeing as of late, which isn't much.

backbencher
09-08-2010, 07:21 PM
Where are you getting $9 Mil? Last I saw... there could be close to $20 million before those things (before Arbitration that is) without regard to Arroyo's option. That's assuming there is no increase in payroll.

Votto+Cueto+Volquez+Hernandez(or sub)+Rhodes(or sub) = $20MM

The difference probably is in the estimates of the arb awards. Ryan Howard got $10MM as a super-two with one MVP. That's the biggest ever, and Votto may get less, but it's going to be a big number.

Cueto and Volquez are going to get big bumps, as well. (The outlier is Lincecum, who settled as a super-two for $9MM. The Reds aren't looking at that as even a combined number.)

The Reds do have some money to spend. Not Crawford money, but money. It seems unlikely to go to LF, though.

Brutus
09-08-2010, 07:26 PM
This plays in to two things:

A. Dusty preaches being aggressive on balls in the zone early in the count (as does being a PH)

B. MLB pitching is good, the longer you see it the more your weaknesses are revealed and exploited.

It's an adjustment game for sure, early in his MLB life I'm seeing that he needs to work on adjusting deeper in the count.

Unfortunately the obsession with pitch counts has created the expectation that hitters should take too many pitches just to work the counts. And as you've alluded to in the past, this is why we now have a record-high strikeout rate among the league.

Seems a middle ground is needed - one where hitters are patient but don't work the count at the expense of missing the pitches they're best suited to hit.

fearofpopvol1
09-08-2010, 07:26 PM
If the Reds are going to compete for championships, why wouldn't they go out and get a true, starting caliber, good hitting left fielder?

Why wait for Heisey possibly to become an .800 bat someday, maybe?

Why use Alonso in left field where, defensively, he would likely be a liability?

Falling in love with prospects is not a good idea. Often they don't fit the need. Or don't pan out. Or both.

Trade the prospects and get someone who hits and fields like a middle-of-the-order outfielder, or possibly a solid lead-off hitting outfielder.

Or get a free agent. Trade for Markakis. Pay Jayson Werth. That's the caliber of player a championship club seeks.

Most left fielders are liabilities.

fearofpopvol1
09-08-2010, 07:31 PM
He's had less than 10 Major League at-bats. I don't we know his bat is better than anything yet.

That said, I'm not unopposed to trading Alonso for something proven in left or at short if it could make the club better.

Alonso is a good 7 years younger. We know he is a patient hitter. He is more of a complete hitter. His injury set him back, but all signs point to him being a better player than Gomes offensively, based on what the scouts project. He's going to cost pennies as well (not that Gomes is expensive).

Brutus
09-08-2010, 07:32 PM
Votto+Cueto+Volquez+Hernandez(or sub)+Rhodes(or sub) = $20MM

The difference probably is in the estimates of the arb awards. Ryan Howard got $10MM as a super-two with one MVP. That's the biggest ever, and Votto may get less, but it's going to be a big number.

Cueto and Volquez are going to get big bumps, as well. (The outlier is Lincecum, who settled as a super-two for $9MM. The Reds aren't looking at that as even a combined number.)

The Reds do have some money to spend. Not Crawford money, but money. It seems unlikely to go to LF, though.

Yeah they'll get some in Arbitration, no doubt, but you used two of the highest awards as examples when, in reality, we should be expecting more of the middle ground for most of these guys.

I do expect an extension for Votto--one that pays him around $5 million this year an escalates over the next 5-7 years. I think Bruce, Cueto and Volquez can be signed for a sum of around $10-12 million.

All total, perhaps those guys you mentioned will equal $20 million. That's not out of the question, though a replacement for Hernandez in the context of being a backup probably won't total $3 mil. Still, that's a minor point and doesn't take away from your conclusion.

I don't think they'll come up with Carl Crawford money. Then again, I don't expect 26 or 27 clubs to be able to come up with Crawford money. Crawford money is essentially New York money.

Brutus
09-08-2010, 07:36 PM
Alonso is a good 7 years younger. We know he is a patient hitter. He is more of a complete hitter. His injury set him back, but all signs point to him being a better player than Gomes offensively, based on what the scouts project. He's going to cost pennies as well (not that Gomes is expensive).

I'm not saying he won't be all of these things... but he's had so few professional at-bats, and a spotty track record in those at-bats, it's too soon to be able to say that's the case. Make no mistake, I'm not questioning his potential or even that he won't wind up being a great hitter, just that I also wouldn't be so quick to make any roster decisions under those kinds of assumptions.

Now, where I agree with you is that Gomes has bottomed out defensively and not been hitting consistently either. So worst-case, I don't think it's much of a gamble to try Alonso out there for a more extended period of time. Then again, they did that in the minors and apparently concluded it wasn't worthwhile. So maybe there's no decision to be made there.

I guess all I'm saying is that we don't know Alonso is any better a hitter than Gomes right now. It's a pretty good bet he will be sometime soon, but there's been nothing to show that he is (yet).

RedsManRick
09-08-2010, 08:23 PM
This plays in to two things:

A. Dusty preaches being aggressive on balls in the zone early in the count (as does being a PH)

B. MLB pitching is good, the longer you see it the more your weaknesses are revealed and exploited.

It's an adjustment game for sure, early in his MLB life I'm seeing that he needs to work on adjusting deeper in the count.

I don't know if I agree with point B. Pitchers aren't necessarily learning about players' strengths and weaknesses during an at bat. They usually know them coming in. By contrast, a hitters job is much more dependent on first-hand familiarity with a pitcher's repertoire. I would think that, in the abstract, the more pitches a guy sees from a given pitcher, the more likely he is to have success on a given pitch.

What works against that dynamic is the count. As those slash stats clearly show, the difference between a long PA (7+) and a short one (1-3) is virtually nil from an OPS perspective. However, the vary greatly in composition, as the long plate appearance means more homers and walks.

You have to be wary of selection bias here as well. The causal arrow doesn't go both ways. Guys have so much success on the first pitch not because it's easier to succeed on the first pitch per se', but because guys only choose to swing at the first pitch if it's one they want to hit. By contrast, once you get to two strikes, you're swinging at anything close.

My conclusion from that data is not that players should swing more earlier in the count, it's that they should avoid accruing strikes. Sometimes that means putting a pitch in play rather than taking it. Other times it means letting a pitch go that might be a ball instead of fouling it off or making weak contact.

It's not bad to get in to deep counts generically speaking. It's bad to get in deep counts in which the pitcher has you at risk of a strikeout but you don't have him at risk of a walk. This is where Dusty's mantra comes from. Don't waste good chances to hit because if you fall behind, you're in big trouble.

On the flip side, if you're being overly aggressive early in the count for the sake of it, without having good plate discipline, any long PA you find yourself in is likely to be one in which you're at a disadvantage.



PA ended on: Heisey Votto
First Pitch 9% 13%
------------
0 Strikes 11% 12%
1 Strike 24% 24%
2 Strikes 56% 51%
------------
0 Balls 18% 15%
1 Ball 34% 27%
2 Balls 17% 19%
3 Balls 21% 26%

Heisey ends his PA on a 2 or 3 ball count just 39% of the time. By contrast, Votto is at 45%. And yet Votto puts the first pitch in play more often, 13% to 9%.

I don't Heisey's long PA struggles are a function of being overly exposed to the pitcher. Rather, I think it's that his long PAs are skewed towards ones in which he's in a pitchers count. I don't care how long his PA are. He just needs to do a better job at getting in to hitters counts, be that 1-0, 2-1 or 3-2. If being aggressive and not taking strikes is the way to get there, great. But it could mean being less aggressive and not fouling off or weakly hitting mediocre pitches which may have been balls.

Brutus
09-08-2010, 08:27 PM
I don't know if I agree with point B. Pitchers aren't necessarily learning about players' strengths and weaknesses during an at bat. They usually know them coming in. By contrast, a hitters job is much more dependent on first-hand familiarity with a pitcher's repertoire. I would think that, in the abstract, the more pitches a guy sees from a given pitcher, the more likely he is to have success on a given pitch.

What works against that dynamic is the count. As those slash stats clearly show, the difference between a long PA (7+) and a short one (1-3) is virtually nil from an OPS perspective. However, the vary greatly in composition, as the long plate appearance means more homers and walks.

You have to be wary of selection bias here as well. The causal arrow doesn't go both ways. Guys have so much success on the first pitch not because it's easier to succeed on the first pitch per se', but because guys only choose to swing at the first pitch if it's one they want to hit. By contrast, once you get to two strikes, you're swinging at anything close.

My conclusion from that data is not that players should swing more earlier in the count, it's that they should avoid accruing strikes. Sometimes that means putting a pitch in play rather than taking it. Other times it means letting a pitch go that might be a ball instead of fouling it off or making weak contact.

It's not bad to get in to deep counts generically speaking. It's bad to get in deep counts in which the pitcher has you at risk of a strikeout but you don't have him at risk of a walk. This is where Dusty's mantra comes from. Don't waste good chances to hit because if you fall behind, you're in big trouble.

On the flip side, if you're being overly aggressive early in the count for the sake of it, without having good plate discipline, any long PA you find yourself in is likely to be one in which you're at a disadvantage.



PA ended on: Heisey Votto
First Pitch 9% 13%
------------
0 Strikes 11% 12%
1 Strike 24% 24%
2 Strikes 56% 51%
------------
0 Balls 18% 15%
1 Ball 34% 27%
2 Balls 17% 19%
3 Balls 21% 26%

Heisey ends his PA on a 2 or 3 ball count just 39% of the time. By contrast, Votto is at 45%. And yet Votto puts the first pitch in play more often, 13% to 9%.

I don't Heisey's long PA struggles are a function of being overly exposed to the pitcher. Rather, I think it's that his long PAs are skewed towards ones in which he's in a pitchers count. I don't care how long his PA are. He just needs to do a better job at getting in to hitters counts, be that 1-0, 2-1 or 3-2. If being aggressive and not taking strikes is the way to get there, great. But it could mean being less aggressive and not fouling off or weakly hitting mediocre pitches which may have been balls.

Pitchers can choose what to throw hitters. Hitters can't choose what the pitchers can throw. For that reason, the pitchers have the advantage. They may not be learning about the hitter during the at-bat, but they have the advantage of feeling the hitter out as to what's working against him. Because of that, they can throw pitches according to what the hitter is adjusting (or not adjusting) to.

I think selection bias is a good point to raise, but I agree with WOY's Point B. The pitchers do have the advantage (hence the pitchers win against the batters more than 65% of the time).

RedEye
09-08-2010, 08:59 PM
Wait a second. I would also like to acquire Carl Crawford--who would upgrade the team immeasurably and make Heisey a worthy OF4. I also appreciate the ongoing analysis of what is "wrong" with Heisey's plate approach--despite the fact that we're dealing with a pretty small sample size at the ML level so far.

But the spirit of my initial post was to ask about the given roster. What exactly has Heisey done/not done to warrant already being dismissed as a full-time, league-average OF? He's better than Gomes, definitely on D and likely on O. Alonso has shown no ability to play a competent OF. So... is Chris not the best in-house option we have currently for a starter?

RedsManRick
09-08-2010, 09:00 PM
Pitchers can choose what to throw hitters. Hitters can't choose what the pitchers can throw. For that reason, the pitchers have the advantage. They may not be learning about the hitter during the at-bat, but they have the advantage of feeling the hitter out as to what's working against him. Because of that, they can throw pitches according to what the hitter is adjusting (or not adjusting) to.

I think selection bias is a good point to raise, but I agree with WOY's Point B. The pitchers do have the advantage (hence the pitchers win against the batters more than 65% of the time).

It's not about the pitchers/hitters having the advantage overall. It's about how that advantage changes during the course of a plate appearance. WOY posited that it swings further in the pitchers advantage the longer in to the plate appearance you get.

I would argue that both guys enter the PA with knowledge about the other guy's skills and an idea about what approach they tend to take. But it is the pitcher who gets to vary his approach and control the path of the plate appearance. It is up to the hitter to adjust his approach accordingly.

Obviously both guys adjust to each other throughout the at bat, but the hitter gains much more knowledge from the pitcher's choices than the pitcher gains from the hitter's reactions. This unequal gain in knowledge favors the hitter as the number of pitches in the PA increases.

Chip R
09-08-2010, 09:00 PM
But what can we truly expect from him? He ha a really nice 200 or so PA run at AA and had some moments this year, but isn't it likely that maybe he has been a tad overrated by some?

Giving him more time might not be warranted. Sure he could bloom into a nice OFer, but he could also give us more of what we have been seeing as of late, which isn't much.

I'm not sure anyone is overrating him. No one is saying he's going to put up superstar numbers. Did we really expect Votto to be in the hunt for the Triple Crown and MVP when he was a rookie? I don't think he should be handed the LF starting job in 2011 but I'm not going to give up on him based on 160 ABs.

Brutus
09-08-2010, 09:03 PM
It's not about the pitchers/hitters having the advantage overall. It's about how that advantage changes during the course of a plate appearance. WOY posited that it swings further in the pitchers advantage the longer in to the plate appearance you get.

I would argue that both guys enter the PA with knowledge about the other guy's skills and an idea about what approach they tend to take. But it is the pitcher who gets to vary his approach and control the path of the plate appearance. It is up to the hitter to adjust his approach accordingly.

Obviously both guys adjust to each other throughout the at bat, but the hitter gains much more knowledge from the pitcher's choices than the pitcher gains from the hitter's reactions. This unequal gain in knowledge favors the hitter as the number of pitches in the PA increases.

Sure. But wouldn't you agree a pitcher is at an advantage because it's not just about knowing each other's skills, it's also about adjusting to particular trends within an at-bat, game or series.

If the pitcher and catcher realize the hitter has just had an incredibly hard time catching up to the fastball, despite the scouting report saying the hitter is a dead-red hitter, it might be a good idea to come after him with another one on two strikes. The hitter-pitcher showdown is one that is dynamic and constantly evolving. I think WOY is exactly right that more knowledge is gained, admittedly on both sides, but the pitcher still has more of an advantage because he knows what's coming next.

edabbs44
09-08-2010, 09:22 PM
I'm not sure anyone is overrating him. No one is saying he's going to put up superstar numbers. Did we really expect Votto to be in the hunt for the Triple Crown and MVP when he was a rookie? I don't think he should be handed the LF starting job in 2011 but I'm not going to give up on him based on 160 ABs.

Votto had a minor league track record that hinted that he could succeed in the majors. Heisey is mostly living off of his fantastic AA run last season.

When Votto was Heisey's age (25), he was putting up a .981 OPS in the major leagues. Heisey is doing what we are seeing right now.

edabbs44
09-08-2010, 09:30 PM
Wait a second. I would also like to acquire Carl Crawford--who would upgrade the team immeasurably and make Heisey a worthy OF4. I also appreciate the ongoing analysis of what is "wrong" with Heisey's plate approach--despite the fact that we're dealing with a pretty small sample size at the ML level so far.

But the spirit of my initial post was to ask about the given roster. What exactly has Heisey done/not done to warrant already being dismissed as a full-time, league-average OF? He's better than Gomes, definitely on D and likely on O. Alonso has shown no ability to play a competent OF. So... is Chris not the best in-house option we have currently for a starter?

Heisey isn't better than Gomes on offense. He is definitely better on D but I also think he has become slightly overrated in that regard on here as well. The more people complain about Gomes, the more Heisey's legend grows (both on O and D).

Brutus
09-08-2010, 09:38 PM
Votto had a minor league track record that hinted that he could succeed in the majors. Heisey is mostly living off of his fantastic AA run last season.

When Votto was Heisey's age (25), he was putting up a .981 OPS in the major leagues. Heisey is doing what we are seeing right now.

I think people were ready to hand the job to Heisey too quickly, and pitching has predictably caught up with him a bit. Perhaps his AA season had some affect on that.

But don't underrate him either.

He had a career .832 OPS in 1,800 plate appearances in the minors, only about 300 of which were during that one stop you mention--and all while reportedly playing above average defense. Even without regard for the AA stop in Carolina, he is above .800.

I think he does possess the qualities necessary to be a good player at this level. I even think he's got the chance to be a good starter. Last year he struggled in AAA for a while and really kind of caught fire the last month or so. I have no doubts that could still happen in Cincinnati. Unfortunately with Bruce injured, he's being forced to play everyday. Maybe that will be a blessing in disguise. I don't know.

I'm not ready to hand over the job... but I wouldn't completely discount what he did in the minors.

edabbs44
09-08-2010, 09:44 PM
I think people were ready to hand the job to Heisey too quickly, and pitching has predictably caught up with him a bit. Perhaps his AA season had some affect on that.

But don't underrate him either.

He had a career .832 OPS in 1,800 plate appearances in the minors, only about 300 of which were during that one stop you mention--and all while reportedly playing above average defense. Even without regard for the AA stop in Carolina, he is above .800.

I think he does possess the qualities necessary to be a good player at this level. I even think he's got the chance to be a good starter. Last year he struggled in AAA for a while and really kind of caught fire the last month or so. I have no doubts that could still happen in Cincinnati. Unfortunately with Bruce injured, he's being forced to play everyday. Maybe that will be a blessing in disguise. I don't know.

I'm not ready to hand over the job... but I wouldn't completely discount what he did in the minors.

OPS in the minors is actually .825 (I think you are missing his AAA stats from this year) and, to be honest, I'm not sure how impressive an .800ish OPS is in the minors when you are a college guy who had over 60% of your PAs below AA.

I think Heisey will probably be useful as a bench OFer, especially as a late inning double switch guy. But I don't see him as being a particularly useful starter.

Brutus
09-08-2010, 09:47 PM
OPS in the minors is actually .825 (I think you are missing his AAA stats from this year) and, to be honest, I'm not sure how impressive an .800ish OPS is in the minors when you are a college guy who had over 60% of your PAs below AA.

I think Heisey will probably be useful as a bench OFer, especially as a late inning double switch guy. But I don't see him as being a particularly useful starter.

I was using Baseball Cube... but 7 points, does that really make a difference?

If you're over 800 OPS in the minors before age 25, I'm sorry but that's still pretty good. A lot of players never sniff 800 in a full season, let alone 3 seasons worth of plate appearances.

edabbs44
09-08-2010, 09:51 PM
I was using Baseball Cube... but 7 points, does that really make a difference?

If you're over 800 OPS in the minors before age 25, I'm sorry but that's still pretty good. A lot of players never sniff 800 in a full season, let alone 3 seasons worth of plate appearances.

I think it all depends on the context. I wouldn't be in love with a college guy who wrecks the low minors and struggles as he moves up. Not saying that that's what he did exactly, but he didn't really build on his impressive AA stint, putting up an OPS of almost 200 points lower in AAA over the next two years in almost the same amt of PAs.

Brutus
09-08-2010, 09:55 PM
I think it all depends on the context. I wouldn't be in love with a college guy who wrecks the low minors and struggles as he moves up. Not saying that that's what he did exactly, but he didn't really build on his impressive AA stint, putting up an OPS of almost 200 points lower in AAA over the next two years in almost the same amt of PAs.

That's not what happened. His .988 OPS was the first half of AA last year. His .788 OPS was in the second half of AAA. He hasn't had a chance to build on that OPS because he only spent a few weeks down there this year.

edabbs44
09-08-2010, 09:59 PM
That's not what happened. His .988 OPS was the first half of AA last year. His .788 OPS was in the second half of AAA. He hasn't had a chance to build on that OPS because he only spent a few weeks down there this year.

The .988 stands out like a sore thumb. If there was any sort of trend or reason to believe that the .988 wasn't an aberration, I'd be more of a believer. But I don't think so.

Brutus
09-08-2010, 10:02 PM
The .988 stands out like a sore thumb. If there was any sort of trend or reason to believe that the .988 wasn't an aberration, I'd be more of a believer. But I don't think so.

But who is expecting him to be a .988 hitter?

His worst stop was .773 (which is where he's at right now as a Major League hitter). It's very possible he can continue to be a .770-.830 hitter as he matures. With his defense, that's more than adequate yes? I don't know why you're holding him to the .988 standard. That's not what anyone is projecting him to be. I don't think I've seen any illusions to the contrary.

mth123
09-08-2010, 10:08 PM
If the Reds can't afford to go get a bonafide middle of the order bat for LF, then they need to bring in a LH Hitter who can platoon with Heisey. It needs to be some one with some pop who can share the 5 hole and not a judy hitter like Dickerson, a mediocrity like Nix or a guy way out of position like Francisco or Alonso would apparantly be.

What the Reds should not do is hand the job to Heisey. Its likely that the Reds will see a fall off from Rolen, Phillips and Hernandez in 2011 with some improvement from Bruce to make up for some of it. They are going to need production from LF to keep a respectable offense and IMO need more certainty than Heisey offers. If he's got the goods many of his advocates believe, then he'll win a job and it won't be a problerm. (And Make no mistake, playing in GABP the offense should be in the top four in the NL to be respectable IMO).

mth123
09-08-2010, 10:11 PM
But who is expecting him to be a .988 hitter?

His worst stop was .773 (which is where he's at right now as a Major League hitter). It's very possible he can continue to be a .770-.830 hitter as he matures. With his defense, that's more than adequate yes? I don't know why you're holding him to the .988 standard. That's not what anyone is projecting him to be. I don't think I've seen any illusions to the contrary.

No. I'm not expecting middle of the order production frm Rolen again. The Reds need better than that from LF. .875 plus is needed IMO.

Brutus
09-08-2010, 10:14 PM
No. I'm not expecting middle of the order production frm Rolen again. The Reds need better than that from LF. .875 plus is needed IMO.

Why? The overall production from a .775-.800 hitter in left with above-average defense is arguably an upgrade from what they've got now. The Reds shouldn't be looking to offset what production might drop from another position... they need to be looking to get above-average players at every position. I'd rather have a lineup of 9 guys OPS'ing around .775 or above than 2-3 guys around .900 and a lineup of Cardinals' hitters

HokieRed
09-08-2010, 10:15 PM
Proposed this trade on another thread; seems relevant here. Volquez and Francisco to the Orioles for Nick Markakis.

backbencher
09-08-2010, 10:16 PM
Proposed this trade on another thread; seems relevant here. Volquez and Francisco to the Orioles for Nick Markakis.

Very unlikely that the O's trade Markakis unless he has a complete falling out with Showalter, and even then it may be Showalter who goes. Angelos gives Markakis great deference.

HokieRed
09-08-2010, 10:24 PM
Very unlikely that the O's trade Markakis unless he has a complete falling out with Showalter, and even then it may be Showalter who goes. Angelos gives Markakis great deference.

I think this is quite possibly true, but it's a trade I'd propose if I were WJ. I would think a great number of RZers would think the O's would go for it, as they thought Hamilton for Volquez was a good deal for us. If Hamilton for Volquez was good, surely Markakis for him, and Francisco, would look good to the O's.

mth123
09-08-2010, 10:25 PM
Why? The overall production from a .775-.800 hitter in left with above-average defense is arguably an upgrade from what they've got now. The Reds shouldn't be looking to offset what production might drop from another position... they need to be looking to get above-average players at every position. I'd rather have a lineup of 9 guys OPS'ing around .775 or above than 2-3 guys around .900 and a lineup of Cardinals' hitters

I get what you're saying, but the Reds with Heisey, Stubbs and the SS look a lot like a line-up full of Cardinals hitters and if they get the drop that is likely at 2B, 3B and C, they may actually have the cards line-up with another guy like them subbing for Holiday.

Need a solid middle of the order and build around it to have a decent offense. Right now 2011 looks like Votto and a lot of questions. They might get one from either Bruce (likely) or Rolen (Not Likely). Phillips could probably be one against LHP. The Reds need another middle of the order guy against RHP and IMO that guy isn't on the roster and LF looks like the only spot to put one. If they could get it from SS or C or if Stubbs took a huge step forward, than what you propose with Heisey and a .800ish OPS would be dandy, but the way this team is put together they need more than that in LF.

edabbs44
09-08-2010, 10:29 PM
But who is expecting him to be a .988 hitter?

His worst stop was .773 (which is where he's at right now as a Major League hitter). It's very possible he can continue to be a .770-.830 hitter as he matures. With his defense, that's more than adequate yes? I don't know why you're holding him to the .988 standard. That's not what anyone is projecting him to be. I don't think I've seen any illusions to the contrary.

I was talking about the .988 season b/c it skews his numbers.

Do you believe that college hitters who generally hit in the .770-.830 range in the minors will do that as well in the majors?

Maybe he can progress and hit at that level. But I wouldn't bet on it. It bothers me that he has not hit SP at all this year and it bothers me that his numbers are inflated by a ridiculous line vs the Pirates.

I think he would look very minor leaguish if he were to get significant time in the playoffs against a team like Philly or St Louis.

Brutus
09-08-2010, 10:30 PM
I get what you're saying, but the Reds with Heisey, Stubbs and the SS look a lot like a line-up full of Cardinals hitters and if they get the drop that is likely at 2B, 3B and C, they may actually have the cards line-up with another guy like them subbing for Holiday.

Need a solid middle of the order and build around it to have a decent offense. Right now 2011 looks like Votto and a lot of questions. They might get one from either Bruce (likely) or Rolen (Not Likely). Phillips could probably be one against LHP. The Reds need another middle of the order guy against RHP and IMO that guy isn't on the roster and LF looks like the only spot to put one. If they could get it from SS or C or if Stubbs took a huge step forward, than what you propose with Heisey and a .800ish OPS would be dandy, but the way this team is put together they need more than that in LF.

I don't think the offense is going to be a problem. I truly believe Bruce is close to finally putting his talent together in the form of fairly consistent production. Drew Stubbs has a way to go, but I don't anticipate he'll continue to OPS .711 next year.

The Reds can get average offensive production from SS and LF (which is what Heisey and Janish both appear to give) and be above average at both positions because of defense. Janish is actually still hitting above the MLB average for OPS by shortstops this season. That might not continue, but he should be able to stay around average.

Brutus
09-08-2010, 10:31 PM
I was talking about the .988 season b/c it skews his numbers.

Do you believe that college hitters who generally hit in the .770-.830 range in the minors will do that as well in the majors?

Maybe he can progress and hit at that level. But I wouldn't bet on it. It bothers me that he has not hit SP at all this year and it bothers me that his numbers are inflated by a ridiculous line vs the Pirates.

I think he would look very minor leaguish if he were to get significant time in the playoffs against a team like Philly or St Louis.

The .988 season only accounted for less than 300 of 1,800 plate appearances. It doesn't skew much of anything.

RedEye
09-09-2010, 12:38 AM
Heisey isn't better than Gomes on offense. He is definitely better on D but I also think he has become slightly overrated in that regard on here as well. The more people complain about Gomes, the more Heisey's legend grows (both on O and D).

I think the point is that we don't know what Heisey is on offense yet--but he's certainly no worse than Gomes. We do know, I think, that he's better on defense. So... this guy seems like a cost effective way to plug the LF hole next year to me. I'm not saying he's a world-beater by any means, and I'm not saying he should have an endless leash. But he deserves a shot at least as big as the one Gomes has been given in 2010.

GOYA
09-09-2010, 01:15 AM
Outfielders are not the Reds' big concern for 2011. Pitching is. I'd be fine with Heisey-Stubbs-Bruce if Walt added a hammer in the rotation. Or 2 hammers.

WVRedsFan
09-09-2010, 02:09 AM
Does anyone else think this should be the starting Reds OF in 2011? If you are following the current Gomes poll, you know my motivations in posting this. I get the sense that starting Bruce and Stubbs is pretty much the team's (and the RZ) consensus for next year. Barring a big free agent signing or a trade, I think Heisey is the best option to be the third amigo. Thoughts?I haven't read this thread, so maybe I'll repeat some stuff and maybe I'll be a contrarian. Regardless, Stubbs is the future in CF and obviously Bruce is the same thing in right. Left field is something else entirely. Chris Heisey is not the answer in left field., The Reds should sign a free agent or trade for someone to play there. Jonny Gomes is not the answer, as we've seen. Surely Layne Nix is not. All three are 4th outfielders. The Reds need someone who can hit for average with power in right. None of those three apply.

That said, and in my more than humble opinion, let Gomes go, keep Nix and Heisey for bench strength, and find a banger for right.

Ron Madden
09-09-2010, 04:00 AM
Need a better bat than Gomes/Heisey to play LF. Heisey, because of defense, is likely a better option than Gomes in 2011 but the Reds need a solution not a stopgap.

That's a fact.

Ron Madden
09-09-2010, 04:03 AM
Outfielders are not the Reds' big concern for 2011. Pitching is. I'd be fine with Heisey-Stubbs-Bruce if Walt added a hammer in the rotation. Or 2 hammers.

Pitching should always be the number one concern.

westofyou
09-09-2010, 10:58 AM
I don't know if I agree with point B. Pitchers aren't necessarily learning about players' strengths and weaknesses during an at bat. They usually know them coming in. By contrast, a hitters job is much more dependent on first-hand familiarity with a pitcher's repertoire. I would think that, in the abstract, the more pitches a guy sees from a given pitcher, the more likely he is to have success on a given pitch.

What works against that dynamic is the count. As those slash stats clearly show, the difference between a long PA (7+) and a short one (1-3) is virtually nil from an OPS perspective. However, the vary greatly in composition, as the long plate appearance means more homers and walks.

You have to be wary of selection bias here as well. The causal arrow doesn't go both ways. Guys have so much success on the first pitch not because it's easier to succeed on the first pitch per se', but because guys only choose to swing at the first pitch if it's one they want to hit. By contrast, once you get to two strikes, you're swinging at anything close.

My conclusion from that data is not that players should swing more earlier in the count, it's that they should avoid accruing strikes. Sometimes that means putting a pitch in play rather than taking it. Other times it means letting a pitch go that might be a ball instead of fouling it off or making weak contact.

It's not bad to get in to deep counts generically speaking. It's bad to get in deep counts in which the pitcher has you at risk of a strikeout but you don't have him at risk of a walk. This is where Dusty's mantra comes from. Don't waste good chances to hit because if you fall behind, you're in big trouble.

On the flip side, if you're being overly aggressive early in the count for the sake of it, without having good plate discipline, any long PA you find yourself in is likely to be one in which you're at a disadvantage.



PA ended on: Heisey Votto
First Pitch 9% 13%
------------
0 Strikes 11% 12%
1 Strike 24% 24%
2 Strikes 56% 51%
------------
0 Balls 18% 15%
1 Ball 34% 27%
2 Balls 17% 19%
3 Balls 21% 26%

Heisey ends his PA on a 2 or 3 ball count just 39% of the time. By contrast, Votto is at 45%. And yet Votto puts the first pitch in play more often, 13% to 9%.

I don't Heisey's long PA struggles are a function of being overly exposed to the pitcher. Rather, I think it's that his long PAs are skewed towards ones in which he's in a pitchers count. I don't care how long his PA are. He just needs to do a better job at getting in to hitters counts, be that 1-0, 2-1 or 3-2. If being aggressive and not taking strikes is the way to get there, great. But it could mean being less aggressive and not fouling off or weakly hitting mediocre pitches which may have been balls.

Here's an article Joe P wrote on the count last year.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/joe_posnanski/04/22/pitch.counts/index.html

and a recent one

http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2010/09/04/an-even-closer-look-at-the-count/

Ghosts of 1990
09-09-2010, 11:48 AM
I'm starting to wonder if we see this outfield again in 2010. At the rate things are going, I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't see Jay Bruce until 2011.

RedEye
09-09-2010, 11:53 AM
Chris Heisey is not the answer in left field.

The assuredness with which you state this boggles my mind. The guy has 160 plate appearances in the major leagues so far, and he's definitively not the answer? Heck, Heisey has 7 HR already in his first 160 AB's--by that logic he is the hammer we're all looking for, with good defense to boot!

My point is that Heisey has not yet been given a chance to show what he can do. Unless the FO is going to go out and acquire Carl Crawford, I don't see why he's not the solution for 2010. Let him play, then we'll decide whether he's a starter or a stopgap.

Homer Bailey
09-09-2010, 12:01 PM
I'm starting to wonder if we see this outfield again in 2010. At the rate things are going, I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't see Jay Bruce until 2011.

I will wager whatever you want to wager that Jay Bruce will be the rightfielder in 2011. There is absolutely nothing that indicates he won't be there. Absolutely nothing.

Absolutely nothing.

bucksfan2
09-09-2010, 12:08 PM
I'm starting to wonder if we see this outfield again in 2010. At the rate things are going, I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't see Jay Bruce until 2011.

Just stop with this.

westofyou
09-09-2010, 12:14 PM
I'm starting to wonder if we see this outfield again in 2010. At the rate things are going, I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't see Jay Bruce until 2011.

You should design and sell the official "Jay Bruce Hair Shirt" outside the gates.

RedsManRick
09-09-2010, 02:05 PM
Thanks for the articles WOY -- great stuff.

Regarding the first article, I do think we need to be careful when looking at those stats because (as Joe Poz points out) the data only includes those PA in which the PA ended on that count and because 3 ball counts include walks and 2 strike counts include strikeouts.

The 2nd article is particularly fascinating in how well it supports DIPS/BABIP theory. Assuming the ball is put in play, the count in which it happened affects slugging quite a bit, but not batting average much at all. It also reinforces my assertion that avoiding 2 strikes is paramount, particularly for guys with poor zone judgement and/or weak contact skills, since it is only with 2 strikes that the strikeout comes in to play.

I think this is really the key insight in the Dusty approach. If you don't get to 2 strikes, you take the strikeout out of the equation and give yourself a good shot at getting on base. Of course, you often end up taking the walk out of the equation too. It really comes down to the guy's skill set. Heisey is an interesting case since he's so average across the board, with slightly higher K rates.

Fun stuff in any event, thanks again for the links.

WebScorpion
09-10-2010, 12:04 AM
I agree with the sentiment that Heisey is our best in-house option for LF. I also agree with the feeling that our offense needs another big bat and I think it should be right-handed. I'm hoping Jocketty can work some roster magic in the off-season. I think Bruce will take another step forward in his growth and it's beginning to look like Stubbs may be embracing the leadoff role, so a left fielder with average defense and a ton of power would really solidify the lineup. I actually like the Janish/Cabrera tandem and Cozart may also come into the equation soon. I think the Hanigan/Hernandez team will morph into Mesoraco/Hanigan some time late next year or earlier if there's a significant injury. That leaves left field and the following chips to deal for one: Gomes, Heisey, Francisco, Alonso, Maloney, and two of Volquez, Bailey, Cueto, Wood. (I think they'll keep Arroyo and Chapman will be the 5th starter, leaving 3 slots for the rest) We might want to hang on to Heisey as the 4th OF, but I wouldn't let it be a deal breaker. I think Jocketty can get something done. As for this year, I'd like to see Heisey get a lot of ABs in left field after Bruce is back. Even though Gomes is getting hot again, I'm convinced he's not our long-tterm answer. That's my two cents. http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-forum/2c.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)

corkedbat
09-10-2010, 06:42 PM
With pitching being at the premium it is, I see little chance in acquiring anyone much better than what we currently have (an incentive-laden contract for Branden Webb being the possible exception tht comes to mind).

I think a big RH bat for LF may be more accessible and that's the direction I'd like to see them go. Maybe Alonso or Francisco and on of the starters. I think signing Werth to a reasonable FA deal would be Ideal.

corkedbat
09-11-2010, 12:25 AM
Bats won tonight and I really want to see them break the Bulls streak, but if they should be eliminated in the next few days do we see Balentein, Sappelt or Frazier? I don't believe any of them are on the 40-man.

oregonred
09-11-2010, 12:28 AM
Bats won tonight and I really want to see them break the Bulls streak, but if they should be eliminated in the next few days do we see Balentein, Sappelt or Frazier? I don't believe any of them are on the 40-man.

We may need to see one tomorrow in uniform if Heisey is banged up as it appeared he was in every AB after the collision. DFA Harang, DRH or Del Rosario. Flip a coin. Easy choice.

westofyou
09-11-2010, 12:37 AM
We may need to see one tomorrow in uniform if Heisey is banged up as it appeared he was in every AB after the collision. DFA Harang, DRH or Del Rosario. Flip a coin. Easy choice.

Can't DFA Harang without his permission, even if he has an option left

Brutus
09-11-2010, 12:38 AM
Can't DFA Harang without his permission, even if he has an option left

Don't go bringing in logic to the discussion.

OnBaseMachine
09-11-2010, 12:41 AM
It's ridiculous the Reds are in the middle of a pennant race and only have three healthy outfielders on the roster. Wladimir Balentien destroyed the baseball in Louisville in his final 150+ atbats, and played well in his short stint with the Reds last season. It makes no sense to keep him Louisville while the Reds are in need of another outfielder.

oregonred
09-11-2010, 12:42 AM
Can't DFA Harang without his permission, even if he has an option left

np, other chaffe ready to dispatch to make room for another OF. They also could 60-day DL Harang.

HokieRed
09-11-2010, 12:51 AM
To me, this is easy. Move Balentien to roster, DFA DRH.

CTA513
09-11-2010, 12:54 AM
Would putting Nix on the 60 day DL open up a roster spot on the 40 man roster?

Brutus
09-11-2010, 12:55 AM
To me, this is easy. Move Balentien to roster, DFA DRH.

I'd go Del Rosario. The middle relief RHP is dime a dozen. There aren't too many specialist LHP to choose from, so if the Reds need someone other than Bray, I'd like to keep Herrera available.

HokieRed
09-11-2010, 12:58 AM
I'd go Del Rosario. The middle relief RHP is dime a dozen. There aren't too many specialist LHP to choose from, so if the Reds need someone other than Bray, I'd like to keep Herrera available.

I look at this one the other way. I like Del Rosario's stuff, his strong groundball tendencies, which DRH also has. I just think the league's figured out DRH's junk. I certainly agree we need someone other than Bray. I'd look to see Arthur back and hope Valiquette's ready to go by midseason.

HokieRed
09-11-2010, 01:03 AM
Balentien, by the way, went 1.007 in July and 1.103 (with a .440 OBP) in August. I'm not sure why's he not up already. Looks to me a whole lot more like a starting corner outfielder than Chris Heisey.

oregonred
09-11-2010, 01:12 AM
Balentien, by the way, went 1.007 in July and 1.103 (with a .440 OBP) in August. I'm not sure why's he not up already. Looks to me a whole lot more like a starting corner outfielder than Chris Heisey.

Assuming Bruce and Edmonds are out the next few games and Heisey is banged up. Gotta bring in a reinforcement or two. Balentin or Frazier or Joe Schmoo helping to deliver a single win down the stretch means way more than having DRH languish in AAA again next season.

corkedbat
09-11-2010, 01:32 AM
I look at this one the other way. I like Del Rosario's stuff, his strong groundball tendencies, which DRH also has. I just think the league's figured out DRH's junk. I certainly agree we need someone other than Bray. I'd look to see Arthur back and hope Valiquette's ready to go by midseason.

I'm hoping Joseph may be knocking on the door by then too (or at least by roster expansion).

Tony Cloninger
09-11-2010, 09:13 AM
I thought Balentin was already hurt? But yes...it's been perplexing to me that they sit around and not get another bat to help up here. Pretty arrogant for a team that has not had a lead in a while to think you can play around like this....In regards to the fiddling by the GM.

HokieRed
09-11-2010, 09:37 AM
I thought Balentin was already hurt? But yes...it's been perplexing to me that they sit around and not get another bat to help up here. Pretty arrogant for a team that has not had a lead in a while to think you can play around like this....In regards to the fiddling by the GM.

Balentien was hurt but has been back for a couple of games.

Tony Cloninger
09-11-2010, 10:40 AM
Great. Can someone spell out the logic of not calling him up? Is this team not struggling enough in Walt's eyes to hit?

mth123
09-11-2010, 11:22 AM
Great. Can someone spell out the logic of not calling him up? Is this team not struggling enough in Walt's eyes to hit?

Not sure how ready he is. He's been the DH in his two games back. He hasn't played in the field.

corkedbat
09-12-2010, 08:33 PM
With the Bats elimintated, do they still need and OF or is getting Bruce back tomorrow enough? I'm saying they stand pat.

mth123
09-12-2010, 08:46 PM
With the Bats elimintated, do they still need and OF or is getting Bruce back tomorrow enough? I'm saying they stand pat.

After the season they will be adding Todd Frazier to the 40 man for sure. I could see them adding him now and cutting somebody loose (Danny Rae?). Not sure they would add Dorn or Wlad unless they plan to protect them for Rule 5. I doubt that they would add Sappelt since he doesn't need to be protected yet. I'm guessing Frazier or nobody.

I'm also guessing that they add Jared Burton.

Ghosts of 1990
09-12-2010, 09:49 PM
With the Bats elimintated, do they still need and OF or is getting Bruce back tomorrow enough? I'm saying they stand pat.

Bruce coming back Tuesday, and there is suspicion that he won't play every day and as Dusty said; needs the winter to fully heal. Don't know how this compromises things.

membengal
09-14-2010, 07:45 AM
Bruce coming back Tuesday, and there is suspicion that he won't play every day and as Dusty said; needs the winter to fully heal. Don't know how this compromises things.

Whatever that suspicion was, it appears to be wrong.