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Cyclone792
09-08-2010, 10:10 PM
.356

It's a simple number, but it has two very important meanings.

First, it's the current winning percentage the Reds maintain this season against NL contending teams, excluding the current fiasco in Colorado in which the Reds presently trail 7-1 in the 5th inning. That means the Phillies, Braves, Cardinals, Padres, Giants and Rockies. Should the Reds clinch a playoff spot, these are the teams that will be standing in the way to the NL Pennant and the World Series.

.356

It's also the number that represents the Reds' pythag winning percentage against that same group of teams, excluding tonight's fiasco. Sure, we can point to a group of hard luck games the Reds lost - Philadelphia comes to mind - but collectively, this team has gotten their teeth kicked in throughout these 45 games and the numbers show it.


Opponent Wins Losses Pct RS RA Pythag

Phillies 2 5 .286 27 30 .448
Braves 2 3 .400 24 24 .500
Cardinals 6 12 .333 63 94 .310
Padres 1 2 .333 9 19 .183
Giants 3 4 .429 37 56 .304
Rockies 2 3 .400 19 18 .527

TOTAL 16 29 .356 179 241 .356

Assuming the Reds are able to clinch a playoff spot, this team better have a whole lot of luck heading their way in October. If not, it's likely they won't last too long in October.

Brutus
09-08-2010, 10:12 PM
.356

It's a simple number, but it has two very important meanings.

First, it's the current winning percentage the Reds maintain this season against NL contending teams, excluding the current fiasco in Colorado in which the Reds presently trail 7-1 in the 5th inning. That means the Phillies, Braves, Cardinals, Padres, Giants and Rockies. Should the Reds clinch a playoff spot, these are the teams that will be standing in the way to the NL Pennant and the World Series.

.356

It's also the number that represents the Reds' pythag winning percentage against that same group of teams, excluding tonight's fiasco. Sure, we can point to a group of hard luck games the Reds lost - Philadelphia comes to mind - but collectively, this team has gotten their teeth kicked in throughout these 45 games and the numbers show it.


Opponent Wins Losses Pct RS RA Pythag

Phillies 2 5 .286 27 30 .448
Braves 2 3 .400 24 24 .500
Cardinals 6 12 .333 63 94 .310
Padres 1 2 .333 9 19 .183
Giants 3 4 .429 37 56 .304
Rockies 2 3 .400 19 18 .527

TOTAL 16 29 .356 179 241 .356

Assuming the Reds are able to clinch a playoff spot, this team better have a whole lot of luck heading their way in October. If not, it's likely they won't last too long in October.

Prepare for an onslaught.

I said last night I expected the Reds to be swept by Colorado (a prediction that I'm still hoping will turn out to be wrong after tomorrow). I was pulverized by the first place crowd.

fearofpopvol1
09-08-2010, 10:13 PM
Interesting. Well, it looks the Giants and the Cardinals are by far the worst matches for the Reds. The interesting thing is, there is a chance neither of those 2 teams make it...although the Giants have a good shot.

We should be very lucky that the Brew Crew is beating up on the Cards. Let's hope Atlanta does the same.

Degenerate39
09-08-2010, 10:16 PM
Well it's not like they've really been manhandled by the Braves and Phillies. Honestly the Reds should've been 4-1 or 5-0 against the Braves this year. And 4-3 or 5-2 against the Phillies. They played the Padres at the beginning of the year before the Reds actually took off. The only team that has really handled the Reds this year has been the Cardinals and the Rockies.

WebScorpion
09-08-2010, 10:16 PM
I wasn't expecting them to go far in the playoffs and that is exactly why. They just aren't good enough to defeat the best teams in the league yet. Maybe with more experience they'll learn how to defeat the best teams, but more than likely they'll need some personnel upgrades in a few places. I'll still be happy with a division championship. Next year I'll expect more.

OldXOhio
09-08-2010, 10:16 PM
I'll just be glad to make it into October. At least that's how I felt on April 1st.

Cyclone792
09-08-2010, 10:17 PM
Prepare for an onslaught.

I said last night I expected the Reds to be swept by Colorado (a prediction that I'm still hoping will turn out to be wrong after tomorrow). I was pulverized by the first place crowd.

If the Reds play in October the way they've played so far this year against that group of squads, they won't last long. That's just a fact, and if people refuse to believe it then that's their own ignorance.

Or stated another way, teams such as the Pirates, Astros, Brewers and Diamondbacks won't be around in the postseason for the Reds to smack around. However, they're going to have to play in the playoffs like they have against the Pirates, Astros, Brewers and Diamondbacks.

If this team is going to win a pennant, they're going to have to flip that ugly 45 game sample on its head.

Tornon
09-08-2010, 10:17 PM
We beat the Braves in the series at home, we beat the Phillies in the series at home, we beat the Rockies in the series at home, we split the series with the Giants at home. Home field advantage may be a big part of it, and anything can happen if we can make it there

Blimpie
09-08-2010, 10:19 PM
It is now a 9-1 game...

A late round of BP has broken out at Coors Field.

Reds Freak
09-08-2010, 10:19 PM
Boy the mood has sure turned sour here recently. Sure, it's a cause for concern, but as I remember a poster saying a week or so ago, perhaps the Reds should politely decline an invitation to the postseason after clinching the division, allowing someone who has done better against the contending teams a chance to win the World Series.

Get to October, anything can happen. Throw the regular season out the window...

Brutus
09-08-2010, 10:21 PM
We beat the Braves in the series at home, we beat the Phillies in the series at home, we beat the Rockies in the series at home, we split the series with the Giants at home. Home field advantage may be a big part of it, and anything can happen if we can make it there

That's part of it though: they have a chance to gain homefield advantage, something that could help, but they're squandering opportunities to do that because they aren't beating the good teams.

Cyclone792
09-08-2010, 10:21 PM
Boy the mood has sure turned sour here recently. Sure, it's a cause for concern, but as I remember a poster saying a week or so ago, perhaps the Reds should politely decline an invitation to the postseason after clinching the division, allowing someone who has done better against the contending teams a chance to win the World Series.

Get to October, anything can happen. Throw the regular season out the window...

You're missing the point.

Sure, get there and anything can happen. But the point is that specific "anything" is going to require turning this now 46-game sample on its head. It isn't impossible, of course not, but that's what'll be standing in the Reds' way.

Cyclone792
09-08-2010, 10:23 PM
We beat the Braves in the series at home, we beat the Phillies in the series at home, we beat the Rockies in the series at home, we split the series with the Giants at home. Home field advantage may be a big part of it, and anything can happen if we can make it there

The Reds have missed a whole bunch of opportunity to solidify home field for the playoffs. A soon-to-be 1-5 road trip against contenders is what we can thank for that.

We're now looking at needing to turn in a 6-1 home stand to put us back in position for home field throughout the playoffs. Now the Reds have smashed lousy teams so this is certainly possible, but it'd be nice to take advantage of this opportunity when other teams such as the Padres and Braves are faltering a bit.

Reds Freak
09-08-2010, 10:25 PM
You're missing the point.

Sure, get there and anything can happen. But the point is that specific "anything" is going to require turning this now 46-game sample on its head. It isn't impossible, of course not, but that's what'll be standing in the Reds' way.

No, I get your point. But the postseason doesn't require you to play 46 games. A best-of-five series is a tiny sample size. The Pirates are 4-2 against the Phillies this year, the Orioles just took 2 of 3 from the Yankees, etc...

Cyclone792
09-08-2010, 10:32 PM
No, I get your point. But the postseason doesn't require you to play 46 games. A best-of-five series is a tiny sample size. The Pirates are 4-2 against the Phillies this year, the Orioles just took 2 of 3 from the Yankees, etc...

Better start hoping for some of that good luck to head our way next month.

Look, I've already stated that our bullpen should match up well if the pieces fall together, and I think that has a solid chance of happening. But the Reds have to get to that point each night for the bullpen to matter, and recent history suggests they aren't doing it often enough.

Reds Freak
09-08-2010, 10:38 PM
Better start hoping for some of that good luck to head our way next month.

Look, I've already stated that our bullpen should match up well if the pieces fall together, and I think that has a solid chance of happening. But the Reds have to get to that point each night for the bullpen to matter, and recent history suggests they aren't doing it often enough.

Well, perhaps. But I think we can all agree it's going to be a blast finding out if they can or not! And it looks like the Reds are setup for this to be a regular occurence the next several years so I'm still pretty giddy despite the current slide...

Cyclone792
09-08-2010, 10:50 PM
Well, perhaps. But I think we can all agree it's going to be a blast finding out if they can or not! And it looks like the Reds are setup for this to be a regular occurence the next several years so I'm still pretty giddy despite the current slide...

Don't get me wrong, I'm beyond thrilled so far with the season. But next item on the agenda will be figuring out how to match up and beat other solid ballclubs next month. This is what I'm currently wary about, and I hope it's a blast being pleasantly surprised about it.

I'm also satisfied with the overall organizational talent, and I have a fair amount of confidence that Walt can successfully shift a few pieces around to put us in even a better position moving forward in 2011 and beyond.

First and foremost, though, is beating the teams that will stand in our way next month. We should get our chance, and I hope to see some marked improvement than what we've seen the last five plus months.

fearofpopvol1
09-08-2010, 10:52 PM
I'm not overly concerned because the Cardinals have seemingly been matching us loss for loss.

A lot of times with the playoffs, it is about who gets hot late. If the Reds were going to slump, now was the time for it. Hopefully they go on a massive run after.

Scrap Irony
09-08-2010, 11:02 PM
Am I the only one who really doesn't care about winning percentages once the playoffs start?

This season, I'm just happy to be there.

That's it.

Anything beyond that is gravy.

Sometimes, I think we, as fans, forget how little this has happened. (Playoff baseball, I mean.)

Enjoy it. Embrace it. Worry about tomorrow tomorrow.

What has happened before means next to nothing in playoff baseball.

Griffey012
09-08-2010, 11:12 PM
Am I the only one who really doesn't care about winning percentages once the playoffs start?

This season, I'm just happy to be there.

That's it.

Anything beyond that is gravy.

Sometimes, I think we, as fans, forget how little this has happened. (Playoff baseball, I mean.)

Enjoy it. Embrace it. Worry about tomorrow tomorrow.

What has happened before means next to nothing in playoff baseball.


No, I could care less what has been done. Being from Indy and a Colts fan, I know all to well that regular season records and stats mean nothing once you get into the playoffs. Granted, a 5 game series gives the best team a much better shot to win than 1 game, but there are countless times through my recent baseball memory that a team like the Reds this season, who nobody thought belonged or stood a chance, marched right on through and did some damage.

All we gotta do is hit a hot streak at the right time, or catch a team in a cold streak, and .356 means nothing.

backbencher
09-08-2010, 11:17 PM
So the idea is that the Reds have a better record against bad teams than against good teams?

Some suggestions for new threads:

Reds unable to perform on road as well as at home.

MVP candidate makes outs more than he gets on base.

Star pitcher can't prevent hits, walks or runs.

alloverjr
09-08-2010, 11:45 PM
So the idea is that the Reds have a better record against bad teams than against good teams?



That would be wrong.

sivman17
09-09-2010, 12:02 AM
It is kind of scary when you compare the Reds to the other playoff contending teams in terms of games against NL teams with winning records:

PHI: 37-24 (.607)
SD: 29-27 (.518)
ATL: 28-27 (.509)
SF: 27-32 (.491)
CIN: 21-31 (.404)

But, we were blessed with the easiest schedule this season (which it's probably a good thing we were). It doesn't matter how we get to the playoffs, just as long as we get there.

Even though we don't show up to play good teams, I will continue to maintain that if we can have semi-decent pitching and our bats are hot at the right time, then anything can happen in the playoffs. Phillips, Votto, Rolen, and Bruce can carry us a long way if they can get hot.

Mario-Rijo
09-09-2010, 01:10 AM
Like others I will just be happy if they make it as I too didn't expect more than that (at least a win in the playoffs would be a nice thing to build on). I thought we had a fair shot of creeping in as the Wildcard but as a division champ it would make it that much better.

2 things with this team and their reasons for struggling against the good teams. Pitch location, good teams and players don't miss mistakes and can hit fastballs all day long when they are not placed properly. And 2nd, 1 and 2 three quarter hitters who can hit for power & avg with discipline against any competition isn't enough. Votto needs help and though Rolen & BP have been solid this season they aren't enough. Too many feast or famine types in that lineup. Need to tweak this team next season, Bruce should help big time next season and Stubbs has shown he might be able to up his game (with the bunt added to his game).

Stubbs - CF
BP - 2B
Votto - 1B
(need a big bat here, IMO RH preferably) - LF
Bruce - RF
Rolen - 3B
Hanigan/Hernandez/Mes - C
Cozart/Janish - SS

#1 - (need an ACE right here)
#2 - Cueto
#3 - Wood
#4 - Leake
#5 - Chapman

Need that ACE, normally I'd put Greinke here but something is up with that kid. Perhaps Volquez (or perhaps Bailey, IDK about him myself) will find himself in the offseason. Fill those 2 slots though and we should be a better more prepared for a playoff run type of team.

The Operator
09-09-2010, 01:17 AM
Even with his down year, I'd take Greinke in a heartbeat and put him right into the #1 spot in this rotation. He could win 20 games here.

WVRedsFan
09-09-2010, 01:37 AM
I am one of those guys who didn't expect the Reds to make the playoffs anyway, and if current performance is considered, that is still in doubt. Yet, here we are, the easy win to good teams and the bully to bad teams. Why?

We started this season without a No, 1 starter. Nothing new here. I can't remember when we had one. Arroyo is our ace, sort of like Bob Purkey in the 60's. Beat them with smoke and mirrors. A good 2 or 3, but not a 1. Behind him is a cast of somewhat wannabes. Leake wore out. Cueto is inconsistent. Harang is obviously hurt. Homer is and may never be ready for prime time. The bullpen is good but somewhat suspect. Volquez, the man with the No. 1 stuff, can't control it or implodes. The true heroes have been Leake and Wood. Both kids and one in the minors last year and the other in college have been arguably the stars. Freak happening> Probably. Do the Reds have the pitching to compete?

Then look at the entire team. The infield has been supurb. Votto, Phillips, Cabera, and Rolen have not only fielded but hit. The outfield has been less than that. After a hot summer from Gomes, he has cooled off. Stubbs has all the tools, but hasn't hit enough. Bruce is hot and cold. The Reds don't have that consistent hitter. With the notable exception of Gomes, the fielding has been superior. The catcher's position, for the first time in years is stable and competent.

This is a magical season because it all worked. The Reds did what they had to do--they beat the bad teams and floundered against the good teams to a winning season and a division lead. The rest is gravy. I do not expect tis team to win it all. In fact, I expect this to be a building year. Add a banger outfieldert and a big pitcher, and then maybe. Absent that, we get what we see. And we can build on that for many years.

Will M
09-09-2010, 01:59 AM
Like others I will just be happy if they make it as I too didn't expect more than that (at least a win in the playoffs would be a nice thing to build on). I thought we had a fair shot of creeping in as the Wildcard but as a division champ it would make it that much better.

2 things with this team and their reasons for struggling against the good teams. Pitch location, good teams and players don't miss mistakes and can hit fastballs all day long when they are not placed properly. And 2nd, 1 and 2 three quarter hitters who can hit for power & avg with discipline against any competition isn't enough. Votto needs help and though Rolen & BP have been solid this season they aren't enough. Too many feast or famine types in that lineup. Need to tweak this team next season, Bruce should help big time next season and Stubbs has shown he might be able to up his game (with the bunt added to his game).

Stubbs - CF
BP - 2B
Votto - 1B
(need a big bat here, IMO RH preferably) - LF
Bruce - RF
Rolen - 3B
Hanigan/Hernandez/Mes - C
Cozart/Janish - SS

#1 - (need an ACE right here)
#2 - Cueto
#3 - Wood
#4 - Leake
#5 - Chapman

Need that ACE, normally I'd put Greinke here but something is up with that kid. Perhaps Volquez (or perhaps Bailey, IDK about him myself) will find himself in the offseason. Fill those 2 slots though and we should be a better more prepared for a playoff run type of team.


i agree with you. this team is an ace & a middle of the order bat away from being a real contender. now, how is a small market team going to conjure up both in an offseason? not an easy task. personally i would try to package some youth for the bat & hope Volquez or Chapman could be the ace.

MattyHo4Life
09-09-2010, 02:07 AM
The playoffs are different than facing those teams in the regular season. Not only do you face the best teams, but you face their best starters. You won't be seeing the 4th and 5th starters, you get the top 3 guys on the best teams.

MattyHo4Life
09-09-2010, 02:08 AM
I can't remember when we had one.

I can... Jose Rijo!

TheNext44
09-09-2010, 02:34 AM
The Cardinals have a .389 winning percentage against the Cubs, San Diego, KC, Rockies, Astros, and Brewers.

For every team, You can find a group of teams that they don't do well against. Considering how few games you play against even teams in your division, luck has more to do with a teams record against other teams, than anything.

And ask the 2001 Mariners and pretty much any team whose ever played a playoff series about the importance of regular season series.

The Operator
09-09-2010, 02:46 AM
The playoffs are different than facing those teams in the regular season. Not only do you face the best teams, but you face their best starters. You won't be seeing the 4th and 5th starters, you get the top 3 guys on the best teams.Yea, we're kind of used to that by now thanks to TLR. :cool:

GAC
09-09-2010, 04:56 AM
Don't care. You play for that opportunity in the post-season. At least we're talking about the Reds in the post-season. Even if they get there and are eliminated in the first round they've made some pretty giant steps forward IMO, and their future looks brighter because they have some really sound young players and prospects.

membengal
09-09-2010, 06:36 AM
I'm pretty chill.

I think it is a matter of expectations. This feels like a playing with house money season, at least for me, as I had them pegged for 77 wins. So I hope they can finish off this run to the playoffs, and then will be happy if they can catch a few breaks there.

I am certain this board collectively harbors no illusions about how they match up with their peers. At least in terms of rotation, the board consensus has long been that it lacks top of the rotation strength. Their record in games against the teams you lay out, Cyclone, certainly points that up, as most of those teams have a stronger front of the rotation than Cincy does.

I am sure Walt knows this, obviously, and it will be interesting to see if he uses some of the organizational depth in terms of major league talent to address it this off-season.

As for this season, I am not concerned. I just want to steer them to the playoffs and see if something fun might happen once there. That would be beyond my wildest expectations back on Opening Day.

Roy Tucker
09-09-2010, 08:18 AM
I truly don't know if this means much or not.

The Reds are 79-60. We'd feel better if those games they lost were more evenly distributed? If they lost more to bad teams and won more against good teams? What does that mean?

Are there any teams with a good record against NL contending teams.

hebroncougar
09-09-2010, 09:14 AM
In the playoffs, if you play one game over .500 each series, you win. Too much griping going on around here for me to look much anymore. It amazes me that people, who obviously haven't been Reds fans over the past 15 years or so, that can't appreciate what's going on right now. All the Reds have to do is get there. Then it's a crap shoot. How often has the team with the best regular season won the WS in the last 10 years, or the team with the best record against winning teams, or the team with the best ace, etc., etc. I'd sure as heck rather be the Reds than the Cards right now.

smith288
09-09-2010, 09:17 AM
The fact this team plays well against those they are supposed to beat is all nice and well in the regular season but the fact they look like rookies against good teams spells out a short post season unless they can get it in gear.

osuceltic
09-09-2010, 09:32 AM
The "just happy to be there" sentiment is strange to me. If any fan base should understand just how hard it is to get there, it's Reds fans. Why on earth would we now take it for granted that we'll be back next year or the year after -- or anytime in the next decade? I think we've seen that these opportunities are rare. You'd better take advantage of them while you can. Remember when that 1999 team seemed young and poised for a long run?

Yes, this team has some young talent. But they also have guys like Rolen and Rhodes who seem unlikely to match this performance again. They got a career half-year from Gomes. The pitching staff, as we've seen down the stretch, has more than a few question marks. Taking anything for granted beyond this year is pretty foolish.

Maybe some are just preparing themselves and trying to guard against postseason disappointment. I don't know. But I'm old enough to understand we may not be in this position again for a long time. Getting there is great, but it's not enough.

redsmetz
09-09-2010, 09:34 AM
I truly don't know if this means much or not.

The Reds are 79-60. We'd feel better if those games they lost were more evenly distributed? If they lost more to bad teams and won more against good teams? What does that mean?

Are there any teams with a good record against NL contending teams.

According to this post, only the Phillies have been outstanding against NL clubs with winning records. Two others have been around .500, the other two below.

Our club at this point seems to be getting down to fumes. I think we'll eke a title out of the season. I won't dismiss going far in the post-season (should we get there and I think we will) as this club has shown some spark at times when the curtain seemed to be closing. The numbers are in our favor, although it's not certain yet. Even now, having lost three in Colorado, my suggestion that if we only win eight more games (which was about 1/3 of our remaining games at the start of the Colorado series), the Cardinals after two losses in Milwaukee still would have to play over .500 just to tie. And I don't think we're only going to win eight games.

Still, I'd like to secure the division win ASAP to breath easy.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2249684&postcount=23

traderumor
09-09-2010, 09:35 AM
We beat the Braves in the series at home, we beat the Phillies in the series at home, we beat the Rockies in the series at home, we split the series with the Giants at home. Home field advantage may be a big part of it, and anything can happen if we can make it thereThis is the most important point. Good teams are tough at home, mortal on the road. In the playoffs, you win the home games and hope to steal one on the road.

REDREAD
09-09-2010, 09:35 AM
I'll just be glad to make it into October. At least that's how I felt on April 1st.

That's my take too.
At the beginning of the season, I was prettty sure they'd break 500 this year. They have far exceeded my expectations this year. It would be nice to win a few playoff games, but the franchise has made a huge step forward, and I'm thrilled. :thumbup:

OesterPoster
09-09-2010, 09:53 AM
Just get to the playoffs. Anything can happen. I keep thinking about the 2006 Cardinals and how they captured lightning in a bottle.

In '06, the Cards did this in the regular season:

2-4 against the Padres
2-4 against the Mets
0-3 against the Tigers

In '06, the Cardinals did this in the postseason:

3-1 against the Padres
4-3 against the Mets
4-1 against the Tigers

I(heart)Freel
09-09-2010, 10:04 AM
Other than their record against the Cards, I just don't think the sample size is big enough to warrant legit worry.

Did the Reds run out their A lineup in those games against contenders?
Was everyone healthy?
Was bullpen rested?
Were the Reds still auditioning their starters?
Were roles resolved and fine-tuned?
Did Dusty have a full bench to call on in a pinch?

All of those answers in the playoffs should be yes. Not sure if that's the case for the regular season series from which the .356 comes.

Homer Bailey
09-09-2010, 10:32 AM
Just get to the playoffs. Anything can happen. I keep thinking about the 2006 Cardinals and how they captured lightning in a bottle.

In '06, the Cards did this in the regular season:

2-4 against the Padres
2-4 against the Mets
0-3 against the Tigers

In '06, the Cardinals did this in the postseason:

3-1 against the Padres
4-3 against the Mets
4-1 against the Tigers

This.

mth123
09-09-2010, 09:20 PM
The "just happy to be there" sentiment is strange to me. If any fan base should understand just how hard it is to get there, it's Reds fans. Why on earth would we now take it for granted that we'll be back next year or the year after -- or anytime in the next decade? I think we've seen that these opportunities are rare. You'd better take advantage of them while you can. Remember when that 1999 team seemed young and poised for a long run?

Yes, this team has some young talent. But they also have guys like Rolen and Rhodes who seem unlikely to match this performance again. They got a career half-year from Gomes. The pitching staff, as we've seen down the stretch, has more than a few question marks. Taking anything for granted beyond this year is pretty foolish.

Maybe some are just preparing themselves and trying to guard against postseason disappointment. I don't know. But I'm old enough to understand we may not be in this position again for a long time. Getting there is great, but it's not enough.

:clap::clap::clap:

deltachi8
09-09-2010, 09:48 PM
The "just happy to be there" sentiment is strange to me. If any fan base should understand just how hard it is to get there, it's Reds fans. Why on earth would we now take it for granted that we'll be back next year or the year after -- or anytime in the next decade? I think we've seen that these opportunities are rare. You'd better take advantage of them while you can. Remember when that 1999 team seemed young and poised for a long run?

Yes, this team has some young talent. But they also have guys like Rolen and Rhodes who seem unlikely to match this performance again. They got a career half-year from Gomes. The pitching staff, as we've seen down the stretch, has more than a few question marks. Taking anything for granted beyond this year is pretty foolish.

Maybe some are just preparing themselves and trying to guard against postseason disappointment. I don't know. But I'm old enough to understand we may not be in this position again for a long time. Getting there is great, but it's not enough.

well said.

I am pleased with the season, and in general will think it's a success as long as Walt goes out and gets what the team needs to take the next step.

As you pointed out, , the team can't count on a repeat performance and will need to upgrade and replace in more areas than is generally thought in 2011. That is why I wanted them to make a big move or two in July this year...the list of needs was shorter than it will be this off season.

mth123
09-09-2010, 10:27 PM
well said.

I am pleased with the season, and in general will think it's a success as long as Walt goes out and gets what the team needs to take the next step.

As you pointed out, , the team can't count on a repeat performance and will need to upgrade and replace in more areas than is generally thought in 2011. That is why I wanted them to make a big move or two in July this year...the list of needs was shorter than it will be this off season.

Exactly right.

traderumor
09-10-2010, 12:48 PM
I think its a strawman to paint anyone as "just happy to get there" that is regularly posting in this playoff race. Its just some are less wont to analyze things now that may not be statistically significant for prediction purposes.

Roy Tucker
09-10-2010, 01:02 PM
Yeah, I think all of us in here in RZ will be very happy if (or when) the Reds make the playoffs. that's a given.

As far as their prospects for the post-season, I look at it 2 ways:

- as an cool and impartial baseball fan, I realize they have strong points and flaws and those 2 things will be exposed in post-season and base my predictions on them.

- as a diehard Reds fan, I'm like gO REdz!!!!!! and heck yeah they are going to win everything and be World Champions!!!! :clap::party::all_cohol:jump::roll::KoolAid::usa:

those 2 fans co-exist in my head.

MattyHo4Life
09-10-2010, 01:06 PM
I think the worst team to face in the first round of the playoffs will be the wild card team. Whoever wins the wild card will probably be really hot at the end of the season.

NJReds
09-10-2010, 01:08 PM
I think its a strawman to paint anyone as "just happy to get there" that is regularly posting in this playoff race. Its just some are less wont to analyze things now that may not be statistically significant for prediction purposes.

Exactly. And frankly, as a longtime fan I would be thrilled to get there for the first time in 15 years. The playoffs can be a crapshoot. I'll worry about playoff performances if/when they make it in. Right now I'm enjoying being a fan of a team in a pennant race playing meaningful games in September.