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View Full Version : Should Carlos Gonzalez be in the MVP discussion?



The Operator
09-09-2010, 03:13 AM
Since going on this monster tear, Carlos Gonzalez has been getting a lot of MVP talk and I just don't know how I feel about that. We're all aware of Coors Field and its effects but he might be one of the most prolific examples of a player aided by playing in Coors Field.

Some home / road numbers to digest:



Home Away

BA .394 .288
HR 25 7
RBI 66 34

OBP .440 .310
SLG .801 .450
OPS 1.241 .760

tOPS+ 146 55


Those splits are just ridiculous. It's not as if he's just a little bit better at Coors, he's essentially Ted Williams at Coors. Get him down to sea level and he's producing about the same as Jonny Gomes. Not bad for a CF, but certainly not MVP level.

I also really don't like the thought of baseball's next triple crown coming from such a Coors-inflated player. Maybe I'm just a grumpy guy, though.

I know one thing - I would be disappointed if Votto loses out on the MVP to Pujols, but that would be understandable. He's Albert Pujols. But if Joey loses out on the MVP to a guy with a 1.241 / .760 OPS split, I think I might literally vomit. What a joke that would be.

membengal
09-09-2010, 06:38 AM
Sure he should.

But that home/road split will be something to chew over for voters.

PuffyPig
09-09-2010, 07:48 AM
I think he has been for some time. As he should be.

traderumor
09-09-2010, 07:56 AM
A typical year for the Rockies. Unbeatable monsters at home, a below average team on the road. Gonzalez is the poster child for that. I think the splits show what's going on, and that is not worthy of MVP performance.

Curious, do the Rockies not use humidor balls while the other team does? ;)

thatcoolguy_22
09-09-2010, 10:01 AM
CarGo's post all star break has been ridiculous. Many voters will say that he is clutch and will give him votes. If the Rockies win the West I can see him snagging the MVP from under Votto and Pujol's nose, and I couldn't really blame the voters for doing it. CF defense vs 1B with similar overall numbers? Hopefully Votto goes on his own tear and ends all discussion

Homer Bailey
09-09-2010, 10:17 AM
Guy has a .385 BABIP. That's pretty crazy.

BRM
09-09-2010, 10:20 AM
CarGo should be in the discussion, yes. The award should still be Votto's though if the Reds hold on and he doesn't hit a massive cold spell to finish the year.

RedEye
09-09-2010, 10:56 AM
Yes. I think it is a three-man race, depending on how the final month plays out.

Cedric
09-09-2010, 11:02 AM
Discussion for sure. And after they discuss his splits it should be goodbye.

traderumor
09-09-2010, 11:50 AM
CarGo's post all star break has been ridiculous. Many voters will say that he is clutch and will give him votes. If the Rockies win the West I can see him snagging the MVP from under Votto and Pujol's nose, and I couldn't really blame the voters for doing it. CF defense vs 1B with similar overall numbers? Hopefully Votto goes on his own tear and ends all discussionHe's been playing LF during this hot streak. He's just another in a long line of Coors inflated stats. The whole team is Coors inflated as they showed on the telecast last night.

thatcoolguy_22
09-09-2010, 01:08 PM
He's been playing LF during this hot streak. He's just another in a long line of Coors inflated stats. The whole team is Coors inflated as they showed on the telecast last night.

MVP is total season. No one should care about splits. If the Rockies win the division he will be a major player. He should not be penalized because he is OPSing over 1.2 at home.

RedsManRick
09-09-2010, 01:13 PM
Batters have long made the case that while Coors is definitely helpful, it harms you when you go on the road. I think CarGo's current level of production is not sustainable, largely due to his .385 BABIP, but we shouldn't just pay attention to his road stats either.

He should be in the discussion, but I think he's clearly behind Pujols and Votto. Depending how your view towards defensive valuation, you would put Zimmerman and Torres up there as well, along side the other great hitters (Holliday, Adrian Gonzalez)

Jpup
09-09-2010, 01:22 PM
I think we can safely say the Beane lost this trade?

bucksfan2
09-09-2010, 01:49 PM
Batters have long made the case that while Coors is definitely helpful, it harms you when you go on the road. I think CarGo's current level of production is not sustainable, largely due to his .385 BABIP, but we shouldn't just pay attention to his road stats either.

I get this but I think most MVP type seasons, especially those that aren't from your usual suspects, aren't sustainable. In reality CarGo is killing the ball right now. Over the past month or so he has become the most dangerous hitter in the NL. You can say it was 'lucky' but I don't think CarGo or the Rockies or the NL West really care.

If the Rockies come back and make the playoffs CarGo may just win the MVP. IMO as long as the Reds don't tank it Mets style and Votto continues his pace he will win the MVP.

Tornon
09-09-2010, 01:50 PM
I think we can safely say the Beane lost this trade?

For now sure, but Clayton Mortenson or Michael Taylor might become something

traderumor
09-09-2010, 02:28 PM
MVP is total season. No one should care about splits. If the Rockies win the division he will be a major player. He should not be penalized because he is OPSing over 1.2 at home.No, just park adjust the stats to normalize them as much as possible. Surely, that type of thing is a factor when evaluating who is most deserving. I think that would take care of any MVP talk.

Brutus
09-09-2010, 02:43 PM
Batters have long made the case that while Coors is definitely helpful, it harms you when you go on the road. I think CarGo's current level of production is not sustainable, largely due to his .385 BABIP, but we shouldn't just pay attention to his road stats either.

He should be in the discussion, but I think he's clearly behind Pujols and Votto. Depending how your view towards defensive valuation, you would put Zimmerman and Torres up there as well, along side the other great hitters (Holliday, Adrian Gonzalez)

I know what WAR says about them, but I don't think Andres Torres remotely belongs anywhere near an MVP discussion. He's a .270 batter with 14 homers and an .830 OPS. Good... yes, but despite his additional defense, he is not worthy of even mentioning for "most valuable."

TheNext44
09-09-2010, 04:36 PM
I really could care less about splits in deciding an MVP candidate or a even a HOF vote. To me all that says is that he's a smart hitter who was able to capitalize on his home park.

In the end all that matters is overall production, it doesn't matter how, why, when or where you get it. It's not the Most Skilled Player Award. It about picking the player whose production helped his team the most.

sivman17
09-10-2010, 05:38 PM
I guess I am surprised and not surprised by this at the same time. B Phil said he'd give the MVP to CarGo.

How can you not stand behind your own teammate?

http://mlb-facts-and-rumors.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22297882/24460489

Brutus
09-10-2010, 05:54 PM
I guess I am surprised and not surprised by this at the same time. B Phil said he'd give the MVP to CarGo.

How can you not stand behind your own teammate?

http://mlb-facts-and-rumors.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22297882/24460489

When push comes to shove (sometimes literally as we've seen), Votto knows Phillips has his back. I don't see anything wrong with this. Phillips is entitled to an honest, objective opinion.

Red in Chicago
09-10-2010, 06:24 PM
I guess I am surprised and not surprised by this at the same time. B Phil said he'd give the MVP to CarGo.

How can you not stand behind your own teammate?

http://mlb-facts-and-rumors.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22297882/24460489

Personally, I don't care what he said about the MVP. His comment about OBP was more disturbing to me:

"I don't believe in that on-base percentage stuff. That's overrated to me. If you get hits, you'll be on base. That's what it's about."

Unfortunately Brandon, it's about taking a walk once in a while too;)

Joseph
09-10-2010, 06:40 PM
Gonzalez should be in the discussion yes, but due to those splits he has no real reason to win it. Yes its about the whole season and what you do to help your team, but if he was the LFer for the Padres he'd have 18 HR or something and 70 or so RBI. You put Albert or Joey on the Pads [AGon not withstanding] and they'd likely still have 30 HR and 90 RBI.

RedsManRick
09-10-2010, 10:06 PM
Personally, I don't care what he said about the MVP. His comment about OBP was more disturbing to me:

"I don't believe in that on-base percentage stuff. That's overrated to me. If you get hits, you'll be on base. That's what it's about."

Unfortunately Brandon, it's about taking a walk once in a while too;)

BP is one of those guys who clearly believes that taking a walk is just the best form of failing to get a hit. Guys like that constantly minimize the value of walking because they feel like it's rewarding failure and not a product of their talent but just something that happens from time to time.

edabbs44
09-10-2010, 10:37 PM
Since the award is MVP and not POY, he should at least be in the discussion.

oregonred
09-10-2010, 11:44 PM
Tulowitzki having another ridiculous game tonight. Rockies are smokin right now. Wow.

Big Klu
09-11-2010, 03:08 PM
Tulowitzki having another ridiculous game tonight. Rockies are smokin right now. Wow.

He's got to get a haircut, though. He looks like Jeff Brantley's kid brother.

Chip R
09-11-2010, 06:58 PM
Tulowitzki having another ridiculous game tonight. Rockies are smokin right now. Wow.

Not that it's needed but the D-Backs are getting softened up by the Rockies and they come in here next.

cincinnati chili
09-11-2010, 08:31 PM
He's got to get a haircut, though. He looks like Jeff Brantley's kid brother.

Growing a mullet for charity. Seriously, he is. I love Cargo but agree that Votto and Pujols are the more worthy candidates.

As a Denver sportswriter wrote recently, if we're going to take Cargo out of the MVP race due to Coors Field, then we should probably put Ubaldo back in the Cy Young race.

HeatherC1212
09-11-2010, 10:06 PM
As a Denver sportswriter wrote recently, if we're going to take Cargo out of the MVP race due to Coors Field, then we should probably put Ubaldo back in the Cy Young race.

When was Ubaldo taken out of that race? IMO that award is between him, Halladay, and Wainright and it will all depend on how they all finish the season.

And with or without my Joey fangirl glasses on, I don't think Cargo should be part of the MVP talk. He's a great player but Tulo is more valuable to that team for both his offense and his defense. JMO of course. :p:

Big Klu
09-12-2010, 12:02 AM
Growing a mullet for charity. Seriously, he is.

I'm glad there is a reason for it. Without knowing that, he looks like he should be rolling into the Coors Field players' parking garage in a souped-up '78 Camaro with "Rocky Mountain Way" by Joe Walsh blaring on the stereo.

The Operator
09-12-2010, 01:45 AM
He may end up keeping the mullet with this hot streak he's on, though.

As Crash Davis taught me, you never [mess] with a streak.

cincinnati chili
09-12-2010, 03:00 AM
When was Ubaldo taken out of that race? IMO that award is between him, Halladay, and Wainright and it will all depend on how they all finish the season.

And with or without my Joey fangirl glasses on, I don't think Cargo should be part of the MVP talk. He's a great player but Tulo is more valuable to that team for both his offense and his defense. JMO of course. :p:

Until the past 8 games, in which Tulo has hit 8 homers, pitchers were intentionally walking Cargo to get to Tulo. SS is a scarce position, but Cargo has been no defensive slouch in either center field or the corners. He's not as deserving as Votto or Pujols, but he's been more valuable than anyone else. His crazy home/road split has to be considered, but it's not like Coors Field is what it used to be. I don't see a lot (any?) visiting players OPS'ing over 1.200 in that park. And I don't see any major league hitters OPS'ing over 1.100 in July, August and September. If the Rockies make the playoffs (2 1/2 games out as of today), he will be the biggest reason in the second half and Ubaldo will be the biggest reason in the first half.

Post all-star game, Ubaldo is 3-5 with a 3.98 ERA. I don't think he'll get a single first place Cy Young vote. Halladay, Wainwright, Josh Johnson, Tim Hudson will probably all finish higher than him in the voting.

Brutus
09-12-2010, 03:19 AM
Here is a BRILLIANT essay on the Coors Field effect and how it relates to Carlos Gonzalez...

http://www.athleticsnation.com/2010/8/8/1611852/carlos-gonzalez-a-god-on-a-mountain

I will summarize for those of you that don't want to read it (as it's pretty long).

Essentially, it's showing that pitch selection by pitchers has not been dramatically different in Colorado. While it's true the movement is effected on breaking balls in Colorado, fastballs are slightly faster (which makes sense given the thinner air and less resistance against the velocity).

As it relates to Carlos Gonzalez, his success is coming because of fastballs. He is well below Major League average at making contact with fastballs on the road. According to this study, the reason he's feasting at home is because of his success against fastballs which have more velocity but less movement. Essentially they're Paul Janish fastballs as far as Gonzo is concerned, so when he gets one, he's crushing it.

This study shows what I had already suspected: Colorado seems to be trying to go the way of sinkers for their fastballs to counteract the loss in movement.

Very interesting study. I guess the book on Gonzo: don't throw him a fastball at home, if this data has any meaning.

Screwball
09-15-2010, 05:44 PM
Tulowitzki having another ridiculous game tonight. Rockies are smokin right now. Wow.

Tulo's having an even more ridiculous game today. 3-4 with 2 seperate 3-run shots and 7 RBIs. Average up to .326, OPS at .966. Being a SS, maybe he's in the running to sneak up and take it away from everybody??

kaldaniels
09-15-2010, 06:22 PM
Tulo's having an even more ridiculous game today. 3-4 with 2 seperate 3-run shots and 7 RBIs. Average up to .326, OPS at .966. Being a SS, maybe he's in the running to sneak up and take it away from everybody??

No chance this year, but the guy is awesome. And I must of just noticed it this year but the guy is huge...looks like a big bopping first baseman when he steps in the box.

backbencher
09-15-2010, 06:52 PM
FP Santangelo, a seven-year MLBer, is using sportsradio in the Bay Area to aggressively question whether the Rockies are manipulating the balls in Coors Field. His hypothesis is that there are balls that never made it into the humidor being used for Rockies at bats (or when the Rockies are behind, or whatever).

Seems unlikely to me, but there also is a lot more cheating of that sort in baseball than the fans typically know.

Coors Field presents an interesting, massive home-field advantage coupled with a road disadvantage.

fearofpopvol1
09-15-2010, 07:02 PM
FP Santangelo, a seven-year MLBer, is using sportsradio in the Bay Area to aggressively question whether the Rockies are manipulating the balls in Coors Field. His hypothesis is that there are balls that never made it into the humidor being used for Rockies at bats (or when the Rockies are behind, or whatever).

Seems unlikely to me, but there also is a lot more cheating of that sort in baseball than the fans typically know.

Coors Field presents an interesting, massive home-field advantage coupled with a road disadvantage.

I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and assume that doesn't happen, but damn, it sure felt/seemed/looked that way when the Reds were there for those 4 games.

backbencher
09-15-2010, 07:45 PM
Here is a BRILLIANT essay on the Coors Field effect and how it relates to Carlos Gonzalez...

http://www.athleticsnation.com/2010/8/8/1611852/carlos-gonzalez-a-god-on-a-mountain



Extraordinary essay. One hopes that the Reds advance scouts/metrics team can do analysis that well.

The Operator
09-15-2010, 08:47 PM
FP Santangelo, a seven-year MLBer, is using sportsradio in the Bay Area to aggressively question whether the Rockies are manipulating the balls in Coors Field. His hypothesis is that there are balls that never made it into the humidor being used for Rockies at bats (or when the Rockies are behind, or whatever). Wouldn't surprise me a bit.

I remember thinking how stupid it was that MLB was letting them put the humidor in when it happened. They can can certainly use it to cheat if they're so inclined.

bucksfan2
09-16-2010, 09:28 AM
Coors Field presents an interesting, massive home-field advantage coupled with a road disadvantage.

Playing at altitude for 82 games gives Colorado a gigantic home field advantage. I have done quite a bit of skiing in Colorado and can tell you that the altitude effects you quite a bit. Now 5200 ft is different than 8200 ft but playing a mile above sea level taxes you. I remember hearing about pitchers who have pitched in Colorado and they said the day after an outing they feel like they have been hit by a bus. Couple that with playing a 3-4 game series played in Colorado with a Rockies team that is playing in their normal environment and a traveling team that is playing in a foreign environment.

Chip R
09-16-2010, 10:31 AM
FP Santangelo, a seven-year MLBer, is using sportsradio in the Bay Area to aggressively question whether the Rockies are manipulating the balls in Coors Field. His hypothesis is that there are balls that never made it into the humidor being used for Rockies at bats (or when the Rockies are behind, or whatever).

Seems unlikely to me, but there also is a lot more cheating of that sort in baseball than the fans typically know.

Coors Field presents an interesting, massive home-field advantage coupled with a road disadvantage.


I wouldn't say this isn't true but I would think that it's too difficult to control when the balls are being used. Let's say the ball boy gives the ump a bunch of dry balls when the Rockies come up. If they aren't hit out of play or scuffed, the visiting team gets them as well. And if the balls get mixed up, who knows what balls are being used when?

I'm curious about what time of year is optimal for visiting teams in Colorado. Is the humidity higher in the spring with the lingering snow? It seems that in the latter part of the summer it's fairly dry and the ball may carry better.

cincinnati chili
09-17-2010, 12:03 AM
Santangelo was an admitted an exposed cheater (steroids), so it's rich that this is coming from him. Ever notice how your friends who cheat on their significant others are the ones who are most paranoid about their significant others cheating on them?

I guess I had somehow missed that Jon Miller got in on this too. I expect better from him:

http://sportsbybrooks.com/espns-jon-miller-investigate-rockies-for-cheating-28672

westofyou
09-17-2010, 12:41 AM
Santangelo was an admitted an exposed cheater (steroids), so it's rich that this is coming from him. Ever notice how your friends who cheat on their significant others are the ones who are most paranoid about their significant others cheating on them?

I guess I had somehow missed that Jon Miller got in on this too. I expect better from him:

http://sportsbybrooks.com/espns-jon-miller-investigate-rockies-for-cheating-28672

http://espn.go.com/page2/s/list/cheaters/ballplayers.html



But Dad, Bossard said, was the great innovator. "He invented frozen baseballs in 1967. He and Eddie Stanky (manager of the White Sox). We had three pitchers that year -- Tommy John, Joel Horlen and Gary Peters -- and that was our whole team. We had no offense. In the bowels of the old stadium my dad had an old room where the humidifier was constantly going. By leaving the balls in that room for 10 to 14 days, they became a quarter to a half ounce heavier."

CTA513
09-18-2010, 05:08 PM
Tulowitzki with another HR

So far this September: .373 AVG, 13 HR, 31 RBIs in 67 at bats

cincinnati chili
09-18-2010, 05:24 PM
Tulowitzki with another HR

So far this September: .373 AVG, 13 HR, 31 RBIs in 67 at bats

I was just informed that nobody in the history of baseball has hit 13 homers in the first 18 days of September. The scary thing is I believe that Melvin Mora (not exactly Lou Gehrig) has been hitting behind him in the five spot just about every game this month. Just goes to show that a lack of protection doesn't always matter.

CTA513
09-18-2010, 06:25 PM
I was just informed that nobody in the history of baseball has hit 13 homers in the first 18 days of September. The scary thing is I believe that Melvin Mora (not exactly Lou Gehrig) has been hitting behind him in the five spot just about every game this month. Just goes to show that a lack of protection doesn't always matter.

Make that 14 HRs and 33 RBIs now after hitting his 2nd HR of the day.

:eek:

RedsManRick
09-18-2010, 06:40 PM
Ridiculous, Tulo himself legitimately belongs in the MVP discussion at this point. An OPS north of .950 from a GG caliber SS? Yes please.

edabbs44
09-18-2010, 09:09 PM
Ridiculous, Tulo himself legitimately belongs in the MVP discussion at this point. An OPS north of .950 from a GG caliber SS? Yes please.

Missing 40 or so games could hurt his case, especially with a few other legit contenders in the discussion.

HeatherC1212
09-18-2010, 10:12 PM
The rest of the season matters too so while I agree that Tulo the Tool will probably be Player of the Month for September, he shouldn't be the NL MVP. One great month should not overshadow what anyone else has been doing for the entire season. Just MO of course but Posanski posted something very similar on his Twitter account earlier tonight too.

Brutus
09-18-2010, 10:13 PM
Ridiculous, Tulo himself legitimately belongs in the MVP discussion at this point. An OPS north of .950 from a GG caliber SS? Yes please.

Tulo's emergence might be what seals it for Votto, as I imagine that CarGo and Tulo will split the Colorado vote.

RedsBaron
09-21-2010, 11:20 AM
Carlos Gonzalez for MVP? Consider these road stats, one set posted by a 23 year old outfielder, who has a superior glove, and one set posted by a 24 year old outfielder, who has a superior glove:
The 23 year old's road numbers are a .283 BA, .346 OBP, .426 SLG, with 6 HR and 28 RBI in 244 at bats.
The 24 year old's road numbers are a .288 BA, .321 OBP, .443 SLG, with 7 HR and 35 RBI in 271 at bats.
Pretty similiar right?
The 23 year old is Jay Bruce.
The 24 year old is Carlos Gonzalez.

The NL MVP is Joey Votto.