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Brutus
09-14-2010, 12:26 AM
If this trend can continue through the rest of the season and into next year, things will really get fun. Throw in Joey Votto, and you have a nice middle of the order the next few years.

Since August 1

Drew Stubbs

33-of-111 (.297)
36 K's / 12 BB's (.366 OBP)
3 HR / 16 RBI
9 2B / 1 3B / (.450 SLG)
.816 OPS

Jay Bruce

30-of-85 (.353)
22 K's / 11 BB's (.427 OBP)
10 HR / 21 RBI
1 2B / 1 3B / (.624 SLG)
1.051 OPS

I'm hoping this turns out to be a meaningful sign of things to come rather than a cherry-picking sample. But it goes without saying a clicking Votto-Bruce-Stubbs trio would catapult the lineup. I'm still not sure of Phillips' long term situation, who will step in for Rolen, whether Cozart is the future guy at short and who will wind up manning left, but if these three (and perhaps Mesoraco or Grandal) pan out, the Reds have a good start.

corkedbat
09-14-2010, 01:27 AM
With their defensive abilities if those two could put together full solid offensive seasons at the same time it could be frightening. Add a left fielder with some pop and look out. I'm still fully into this season, but I'm also very psyched about the future also.

Johnny Footstool
09-14-2010, 01:31 AM
22 K's / 11 BB's

This K/BB rate in 85 ABs is a fantastic for Bruce. No wonder he has 10 HR this month.

You don't happen to have his Pitches/Plate Appearance ratio for the month, do you?

Brutus
09-14-2010, 01:57 AM
This K/BB rate in 85 ABs is a fantastic for Bruce. No wonder he has 10 HR this month.

You don't happen to have his Pitches/Plate Appearance ratio for the month, do you?

3.87 P/PA for August + Monday's game.

Johnny Footstool
09-14-2010, 02:22 AM
3.87 P/PA for August + Monday's game.

Excellent. Much better than earlier this season.

dougdirt
09-14-2010, 02:33 AM
Excellent. Much better than earlier this season.

It is really only better than April. May-July he was at 3.81 P/PA.

Johnny Footstool
09-14-2010, 02:13 PM
It is really only better than April. May-July he was at 3.81 P/PA.

His total for the season is currently 3.77, so April must have really been horrible.

dougdirt
09-14-2010, 02:22 PM
His total for the season is currently 3.77, so April must have really been horrible.

3.5something.

UKFlounder
09-14-2010, 02:22 PM
I like that both have gotten a lot of playing time and ABs even when they slumped. I especially like it for Stubbs as there were times when it would have been legitimately easy to bench him for a long time or even send him down.

Maybe either or both do not develop into a true star, but I do like how they have gotten the chance to play and play and play and fight through the slumps and learn in the big leagues. Even better, it has happened on a successful team, not a young rebuilding one.

I hope this experience pays off in the future, but even if it does not, I really do like how the Reds have given these guys chances to keep playing. It would be much harder for young guys to learn while on the bench.

lollipopcurve
09-14-2010, 02:31 PM
Nice post. Stubbs' steady climb over the last few weeks has really gone unnoticed, but it's a very encouraging development. It's exciting to think that he may be on a trajectory that will allow him to keep tapping those power-speed tools.

Of course, Bruce's breakthrough -- and I do think that's what we're seeing -- is the keystone piece for the Reds building a plus offense with this group going forward.

It's critical to get the pitching, that's where it all starts, but Cincy's a hitter's town at heart. Get another plus bat or two in the lineup and folks are really going to start paying attention.

VR
09-14-2010, 02:35 PM
To think that Stubbs still has an unrefined swing, underutilized speed, and inability to bunt.....it is very exciting to imagine what progress in those areas will (can) turn him in to.
He is the fastest player I've seen in the game since the 1987 version of Eric Davis.

Brutus
09-14-2010, 03:18 PM
To think that Stubbs still has an unrefined swing, underutilized speed, and inability to bunt.....it is very exciting to imagine what progress in those areas will (can) turn him in to.
He is the fastest player I've seen in the game since the 1987 version of Eric Davis.

Agreed. Many of his tools are still in the "raw" stage. When those tools are refined, he has the chance to be a pretty darn good player. One of the best overall CFs in the game perhaps.

RedsManRick
09-14-2010, 03:21 PM
What's great about Stubbs is that we've pretty much established that he's a major leaguer. Will he ever get on base at that .360 clip we're all pining for? Who knows. But even if this is all he ever is, he's an average major leaguer. For the last decade, this team has struggled to build a team without gaping holes. Stubbs fills CF for the next 5+ years. If he continues to improve and becomes a .775+ OPS guy, great. If not, I'll still take it. I didn't think he'd make it and am happy to eat crow.

Brutus
09-14-2010, 03:30 PM
What's great about Stubbs is that we've pretty much established that he's a major leaguer. Will he ever get on base at that .360 clip we're all pining for? Who knows. But even if this is all he ever is, he's an average major leaguer. For the last decade, this team has struggled to build a team without gaping holes. Stubbs fills CF for the next 5+ years. If he continues to improve and becomes a .775+ OPS guy, great. If not, I'll still take it. I didn't think he'd make it and am happy to eat crow.

And at this point, his OBP (and the OPS we're all hoping for) seems to be directly dependent on just cutting down on his strikeouts. He's walking at a satisfactory pace. So for him, more balls in play will equal an OPS that makes him one of the better centerfielders in baseball.

I(heart)Freel
09-14-2010, 03:43 PM
April 3, 1987
October 4, 1984

Those are the stats I like most of all.

TRF
09-14-2010, 03:53 PM
In my Stubbs turnaround, I said he's a very light version of Adam Dunn. About half his power, half his walks and the same K rate. But he adds SB's and a fantastic percentage too, about 82% this year. What I don't get is the lack of doubles. Even Cabrera has more, a lot more in fact. Gomes, Bruce, Votto, Rolen. All have more doubles than the fastest guy on the team. just weird.

If he can manage to keep buying in to the fact that he doesn't have to be a slap hitter and start driving the ball, he could accumulate a lot of bases. I'd like to also see him be a little more aggressive when it comes to SB's too, especially 3rd base.

Brutus
09-14-2010, 04:09 PM
In my Stubbs turnaround, I said he's a very light version of Adam Dunn. About half his power, half his walks and the same K rate. But he adds SB's and a fantastic percentage too, about 82% this year. What I don't get is the lack of doubles. Even Cabrera has more, a lot more in fact. Gomes, Bruce, Votto, Rolen. All have more doubles than the fastest guy on the team. just weird.

If he can manage to keep buying in to the fact that he doesn't have to be a slap hitter and start driving the ball, he could accumulate a lot of bases. I'd like to also see him be a little more aggressive when it comes to SB's too, especially 3rd base.

That's been surprising, although during this last 6 week spurt, he does have 9 doubles to his credit which is highly encouraging. It's been all or nothing with him prior to these past several weeks. But he seems to be putting a lot more in play, and that's translating to more extra base hits. Hopefully he can keep that up.

kaldaniels
09-14-2010, 04:21 PM
Wasn't there a debate over Stubbs HRs from last Sept. - whether he truly had good power (b/c he never had big HR #s in the minors). Looks like that debate is over. The question is can Drew harness it?

medford
09-14-2010, 04:37 PM
What has me most excited is that both players have filled in question marks this team has annually tried to answer each offseason going back some time. The team has been floundering for a center fielder for some time, and as mentioned above, Stubbs appears to be at worst a league average guy overall, and at best, one of the best overal CFers in the game one day. Meanwhile, the team has been looking looking for consitant power from the left side for a while now. Dunn and Griffey gave them that answer, so they thought, but unfortunately Griff was either injuried or at the tale end of his career for too long for that combo to ever prove fruitful.

Votto & Bruce look like a great pair of left handed power to build around, now they just need to get a right handed stick to mash between them. I like what Rolen has given this team, but to count on him next season would be foolish of this front office this offseason. Or I shoudl say, to count on him to produce like he has this season, as often as he has this season would be foolish. I'd count on him needing more off days (Francisco starting in his place 2x a week perhaps) and would ideally like to bat him 2nd ahead of Votto. Gomes isn't the answer, at least not on an everyday basis. Thankfully, left field seems to be a safe haven for a big stick, I'd like to see them put their resources there this offseason. Hopefully they've got an eye on Worth, but if not him, a trade partner than can man LF for the next couple of seasons and drive in runs like Kevin Mitchell.

TRF
09-14-2010, 04:38 PM
Wasn't there a debate over Stubbs HRs from last Sept. - whether he truly had good power (b/c he never had big HR #s in the minors). Looks like that debate is over. The question is can Drew harness it?

I was the half that said he didn't. My argument was if a power hitter doesn't hit for power, then he doesn't have power. The strength to hit HR's and the ability to hit HR's are completely different.

His approach does seem better according to the numbers.

lollipopcurve
09-14-2010, 05:27 PM
The strength to hit HR's and the ability to hit HR's are completely different.

You vehemently denied that he would develop the ability to hit HRs in the majors. It wasn't a semantic argument -- it was about Stubbs' worthiness as a prospect.

But hey, it's been settled.

kaldaniels
09-14-2010, 05:31 PM
You vehemently denied that he would develop the ability to hit HRs in the majors. It wasn't a semantic argument -- it was about Stubbs' worthiness as a prospect.

But hey, it's been settled.

Yeah, please no sematics as surely everyone who was there knows the debate I was referring to.

Cooper
09-14-2010, 05:46 PM
Stubbs has an extreme approach -he whips his bat through the zone -he rarely keeps his hands back though he does attempt to keep his weight back. I tend to think this kind of approach produces power while giving away balance. Imho, he might improve his contact rate by lengthening his base (spreading his legs apart)- this seems more obvious when he has 2 strikes.

TRF
09-14-2010, 06:00 PM
What semantics? My argument as withstood the test of time. The Reds minor league system tried to make Stubbs into something he wasn't. I came around on the power, and pointed out multiple times that he just isn't a leadoff hitter.

I'm no fan of his OBP either. 170+ games and a .316 OBP in his career. He's had a good month and a half. Lets hope Brutus is right and it's a sign of things to come.

And nothing in my mind is settled after 170 games played when he put up numbers like he did in April, June and July. May was pretty fantastic though.

Brutus
09-14-2010, 06:19 PM
What semantics? My argument as withstood the test of time. The Reds minor league system tried to make Stubbs into something he wasn't. I came around on the power, and pointed out multiple times that he just isn't a leadoff hitter.

I'm no fan of his OBP either. 170+ games and a .316 OBP in his career. He's had a good month and a half. Lets hope Brutus is right and it's a sign of things to come.

And nothing in my mind is settled after 170 games played when he put up numbers like he did in April, June and July. May was pretty fantastic though.

My question was: if you didn't think Stubbs' power was legit at the time, then what did you think the Reds were doing with him? With this speed and on-base skills being prevalent in the minors, and power not, why wouldn't it have made sense for them grooming him to be a leadoff hitter? It seems to me as if you created the "Reds making him into something he's not" only after Stubbs' started his power trip when he was called up last season, making it clear he did in fact have power.

I could be wrong, but I don't remember the leadoff issues coming into play until after his power came about in the Majors late last year.

EDIT: and by the way, I'm not really asking this to knock the power argument. That's done and over with and if he keeps it up, I have no doubt you'll be happy about that. It just came across as you changed the argument in revisionist fashion after the initial one didn't pan out.