Your playoff rotation

[Brutus]

So I myself am struggling with this. What's your 3-man rotation (though admittedly usage of four starters becomes necessary or advisable for some teams in some years) if the Reds make the playoffs?

For me,

No. 1 starter Johnny Cueto
No. 2 starter Travis Wood
No. 3 starter Homer Bailey (though there are many good reasons for Arroyo)

I'm having a hard time deciphering between those four. Volquez is actually the type of guy that can dominate more than any of them, but he's also the least reliable right now in my opinion.

If the Reds make the playoffs, how would you structure the rotation? Assume a 3-man lineup.

[Redsfan320]

If we're goin' 3:

Arroyo
Cueto
Wood

320

[mdccclxix]

I was imagining Arroyo throwing a gem in game 1 today. I've just accepted that he's going to start because he's a veteran, highly paid, etc. I kind of find comfort in Arroyo starting of these reasons myself. I guess I'd go with:

Arroyo
Volquez
Cueto

Arroyo being able to go in game 4 if he succeeds in game 1. Although, I'd really like to give Wood or Bailey a chance.

I want to give Volquez a chance to utilize his K skills in a series where it can give us a psychological advantage. Have Wood ready in a pinch.

[UKFlounder]

Arroyo, Wood & Cueto are the top 3 without question. Bailey probably would be the 4th if needed, as I just don't trust Volquez yet. (Then again, I'm not sold on Homer either, so I'm not really sure who would be my 4th choice.)

I guess the question I have is how many pitchers do we keep on the roster - 12? If 3 starters and 9 in the bullpen, including a couple who may be able to eat innings in case of a bad start so that the whole bullpen does not suffer, that might work. 4 starters & 8 relievers might be fine too.

[Brutus]

Arroyo, Wood & Cueto are the top 3 without question. Bailey probably would be the 4th if needed, as I just don't trust Volquez yet. (Then again, I'm not sold on Homer either, so I'm not really sure who would be my 4th choice.)

I guess the question I have is how many pitchers do we keep on the roster - 12? If 3 starters and 9 in the bullpen, including a couple who may be able to eat innings in case of a bad start so that the whole bullpen does not suffer, that might work. 4 starters & 8 relievers might be fine too.

I think those are the three that will get the call from Dusty. But I think a case could be made for three that don't include Arroyo. I do think it's a no-brainer he'll be out there in Game 1. Experience and all that. But if I'm choosing, it's not as easy for me.

[UKFlounder]

I think it has more to do with performance and consistency than experience. Arroyo seems a bit more dependable to me than the others, though his physical skills may not match them. I can see a point for going with the better arms, but I just don't know what to expect from guys like Bailey and Volzquez - I think Bronson is a bit more reliable


I think those are the three that will get the call from Dusty. But I think a case could be made for three that don't include Arroyo. I do think it's a no-brainer he'll be out there in Game 1. Experience and all that. But if I'm choosing, it's not as easy for me.

[Cedric]

Hopefully Volquez has 4 more great starts and then is a big part of the post season plans. Edinson, Cueto, and Bronson would be my 3 choices if that happens.

If not I would go Homer over Wood unless we play the Phillies.

[Brutus]

I think it has more to do with performance and consistency than experience. Arroyo seems a bit more dependable to me than the others, though his physical skills may not match them. I can see a point for going with the better arms, but I just don't know what to expect from guys like Bailey and Volzquez - I think Bronson is a bit more reliable

Yeah that's a good argument. Surprisingly, Bailey has been pretty consistent this year for the most part. It doesn't seem like it, but looking back at his starts, it's surprisingly solid.

[RBA]

Cueto and pray for rain after the 6th inning (so CoCo doesn't blow it) and pray for at least three days of rain between starts.

[HokieRed]

Cueto, Bailey, Volquez

[RBA]

Cueto, Arroyo, and Volquez. I think Bailey is fool's gold.

[Matt700wlw]

I think Arroyo is a lock, as is Cueto...not sure on the 3rd, but I'm hoping Volquez gets things in order in the next few weeks...

If Cueto and Volquez are both in it, I put Arroyo between them. A lefty would be nice, but I'm unsure Wood is there yet.

I basically answered nothing, have I? Lol.

[Will M]

Game 1: Cueto
Game 2: Arroyo
Game 3: Wood, Bailey or Volquez (whoever pitches better down the stretch).
Game 4: Wood, Bailey or Volquez. whoever goes is on a short lease with the 5th pitcher standing by in long relief
Game 5: Cueto

[RedsManRick]

Arroyo, Cueto, Wood, Bailey

- I don't want Cueto too worked up for Game 1
- If the Reds are getting shut down by the other team's ace, I think Arroyo is least likely to press
- I like having Cueto matched up against the Game 2 starter
- I want to alternate between the hard throwers
- I go 4 deep because Bailey can't get warmed up quickly enough to relieve and I want Wood in the rotation

[The Voice of IH]

Arroyo
Cueto
Wood
Bailey

Lets compete

[paulrichjr]

I honestly have no faith in Dusty picking the rotation. I'm afraid no matter what Homer/Volquez/Arroyo do from here on out Arroyo is in. I love Arroyo but he has been really walking a tightrope lately.

[Mario-Rijo]

Arroyo, Cueto, Wood, Bailey

- I don't want Cueto too worked up for Game 1
- If the Reds are getting shut down by the other team's ace, I think Arroyo is least likely to press
- I like having Cueto matched up against the Game 2 starter
- I want to alternate between the hard throwers
- I go 4 deep because Bailey can't get warmed up quickly enough to relieve and I want Wood in the rotation

Good job breaking down your rationale. Hard to argue with so I won't but how do you play it if say it's the Phils or Braves who IMO are more susceptible to LHP's. Or S.F. who puts the ball in play pretty well?

I'm gonna go with a rotation based on matchups.

Vs. S.D. - Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey, Wood
Vs. S.F. - Cueto, Bailey, Wood, Arroyo
Vs. Atl - Cueto, Wood, Arroyo, Bailey
Vs. Phi - Cueto, Wood, Bailey, Arroyo

Personally I would hope Volquez finds himself in short order as I would prefer him to almost every guy in the rotation but we could use him out of the pen pretty well I suppose.

[VR]

I'm ok w/ Wood in there....but only plan on him going 5.

[reds44]

Game 1: Cueto
Game 2: Arroyo

If Volquez shows anything down the stretch, I'm pitching him game 3. Wood in game 4.

[WVRedsFan]

I'll think about that when we clinch. It's way too early with a 7 game lead. Talk to me when it's over.

[Ghosts of 1990]

Cueto
Arroyo
Wood
Bailey

[pedro]

Not a chance I'd let Bailey start in the playoffs.

Sure hope Volquez continues to succeed, the Reds really need him to.

[KronoRed]

You start with Arroyo as he is the only one who has even been near a playoff team before, then Cueto, and then maybe hope for some rain ;)

[bucksfan2]

I may be coming at this from a different angle but o well.

Its no secret that the Reds have a nice deep starting rotation but they lack an ace caliber starter. The have a couple of guys with ace quality stuff but are lacking in consistency. IMO Bailey and Volquez both have the best pure stuff of anyone on the staff. Arroyo is probably the most consistent starter who has had big game experience, but doesn't have the stuff. Arroyo would match up much better going day two than going up against the ace. Unless they play Philly with Halliday or Oswalt I would form my rotation like this.

Bailey
Arroyo
Cueto
Wood
Arroyo

I am not necessarily giving up game one, just throwing a feast/famine type pitcher. Arroyo should be able to go again on 3 days rest. I don't really trust Cueto to pitch game one of a series.

[Griffey012]

It all depends on how they finish the season. Volquez may pitch like an ACE the rest of the season and be our #1 we have been missing. Wood may hit an inning wall and start to struggle. Bailey could go one direction or the other. Right now it is too early to make a call. But if I had to pick today it would be Arroyo, Cueto, Wood, Bailey. Arroyo is dominant by no means but he seems to always have us in a position to win the ballgame, and we all know with this team that if you give it a chance to win, it is likely it will win. I have Cueto #2 because he will get too jacked up starting game 1, just like after the STL brawl, and he won't pitch pretty. The 3/4 spot is simply who has pitched the most consistently well up until this point.

[camisadelgolf]

#1 Bronson Arroyo
He's been there before, and he can show the young guys how it's done. He's less in need of rest than the other members of the rotation, so it'll be nice to give the other guys a little more time to rest up. When he's bad, he's horrible, but when he's good, he's an ace.

#2 Johnny Cueto
He has been the Reds' best starter this year. His power arm should be particularly effective against opponents a day after they see Arroyo's 'slop'.

#3 Travis Wood
His fantastic numbers aside, he has shown that he can handle pressure very well, and on top of that, it would be nice to get a left-hander in there to mix things up.

#4 Homer Bailey
He is slowly-but-surely coming on, and he may be peaking at just the right time. If he ends 2010 like he did 2009, the Reds should be in great shape.

The real wild card here is Edinson Volquez. If he continues to pitch anything close to how he did on Saturday, you can't leave him out of the rotation. The only question would be whether he replaces Bailey or Wood. If it comes down to those two, I'd just go with the hot hand.

[hebroncougar]

If it's me I go:

1. Wood
2. Cueto
3. Arroyo

And we'll see where we are. I think Wood is oblivious to the pressure, and I think he's a got a decent shot every time out to throw a gem. IMO, Cueto can't handle game 1. Something else I'd think about is who is the umpire, and how big their K zone is. If it's small, I might bump Cueto to a more favorable umpire. He adjusts the worst to how an umpire is calling a game.

[MikeS21]

I would go: Arroyo, Cueto, Wood, and then Bailey.

I think you need the experienced guy to go first - with all the media hype and hoopla, BA can handle it. Cueto would match up pretty well against almost any #2 starter. I just trust Wood to give a quality start in Game #3. Bailey matches well against most #4 starters (or you can go back to BA for Game #4)

Having said all that, I don't think starting pitching will be the Reds' problem in the post-season. I think hitting and bullpen are the larger question marks.

[Eric_the_Red]

Arroyo, followed by the 2 "hottest" starters based on their final 4-5 starts.

[kaldaniels]

Part of me says if you want a shot to win it all, you gotta roll the dice and go Volquez/Cueto/Bailey in some order, with Arroyo on stand by for the 4th spot or if things get out of hand. Those 3 have the most "shutdown" stuff on the staff...although we all know the flipside of the equation. I'm not saying I'd go that path...but that devil on my shoulder is saying thats what needs to be done for a chance to win it all.

Otherwise yeah, Arroyo/Cueto/Wood or Bailey (depending on matchup).

[WebScorpion]

NOW it's time to talk about the rotation. ;)

I'd go with:
Volquez
Bailey
Wood
Cueto

and have Arroyo ready to replace anyone who breaks down early. I think Arroyo can warm up quicker than the rest AND he gives a different look than any of them. If the opponent has timed any of them well enough to knock them out, Arroyo may confound them...if not, follow him with Chapman. :D

The scary part is any one of the four can be way off at any time...I guess this is where we learn who can step it up and who should be trade bait.

[WVRedsFan]

I'd rather win the division first. I don't like what I see. The Cardinals aren't going to lose against who they're playing, so let's win the division and talk about it. I'm old enough to remember 1964 and 1999, when it was assumed we were going to the playoffs and guess what happened? If we lose tomorrow night and the Cardinals win...I don't want to think about it.

[WebScorpion]

I'd rather win the division first. I don't like what I see. The Cardinals aren't going to lose against who they're playing, so let's win the division and talk about it. I'm old enough to remember 1964 and 1999, when it was assumed we were going to the playoffs and guess what happened? If we lose tomorrow night and the Cardinals win...I don't want to think about it.
So you think it's remotely possible that this team will lose 6 straight against the Astros and Brewers (who we have a combined 17-6 record against) AND the Cards will win 6 straight (4 against Colorado) AND the Reds will lose a one game playoff to the Cards? Wow. :eek: I understand that it IS baseball, but the odds of all those happening are astronomical. As a player, yes, it's important that they don't let up and think they've got it in the bag, but as a fan, that's just excessive worrying. The Reds will win one of those games...they won't even need the Cards to lose (which they will). It's safe to discuss the playoff rotation. :rolleyes:

[redsfandan]

I'd rather win the division first. I don't like what I see. The Cardinals aren't going to lose against who they're playing, so let's win the division and talk about it. I'm old enough to remember 1964 and 1999, when it was assumed we were going to the playoffs and guess what happened? If we lose tomorrow night and the Cardinals win...I don't want to think about it.
I understand your point. A colllapse has happened before so it could happen again. But I think WebScorpion is right. At this point it's just a matter of time. Just one win from the Reds or one loss by the Cards and we'll have one big celebration.

But, even if the Reds clinch tonight, I think Dusty should wait to set the starting rotation for the playoffs. It's just a hunch but I think the Reds will clinch before the NL Wildcard will be decided. And how Volquez will do tonight, and whether Wood will hit a wall, will matter as well.

[kaldaniels]

I'd rather win the division first. I don't like what I see. The Cardinals aren't going to lose against who they're playing, so let's win the division and talk about it. I'm old enough to remember 1964 and 1999, when it was assumed we were going to the playoffs and guess what happened? If we lose tomorrow night and the Cardinals win...I don't want to think about it.

I truly feel for you if you are implying what I think you are impling....that the Reds could not make the playoffs. I have a better chance of being struck by lightning than that happening. Relax...it is in the bag.

[reds44]

Volquez
Arroyo
Cueto
Wood

[camisadelgolf]

Fangraphs just published a post about this.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2010-nl-playoff-rotations-cincinnati-reds/

With one more win or a Cardinals loss, the Cincinnati Reds will be the second National League team to clinch a playoff spot. That gives them time to rest their guys and line up their playoff rotation. But unlike the Phillies, the Reds don’t have a dominant top three — they don’t even have a dominant top one. That makes their playoff rotation decisions a bit more interesting.

[lollipopcurve]

Still too soon to lock in, but as of right now:

Arroyo
Volquez
Wood
Bailey or Cueto

[TRF]

Arroyo
Cueto
Volquez
Wood
Chapman. Yes, Chapman.

Bailey.

[Blimpie]

1.Arroyo
2.Cueto
3.Bailey

Lately, Volquez scares me as much as Coco. If we matchup against the Phillies, then I substitute Wood for Bailey.

[Hoosier Red]

Depends on the matchup to me;
Versus the Padres/Giants/Braves
Arroyo
Cueto
Volquez
Bailey

Versus the Phillies
Arroyo
Wood
Cueto
Volquez

[camisadelgolf]

Here are the September stats for the five starting candidates. Based on these stats, who would you want pitching for the Reds in the playoffs?

G GS IP H R ER BB SO HR HBP ERA BF BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip Pit Str GB LD SB CS AB 2B 3B GDP
5 5 27.1 30 15 15 4 21 6 1 4.94 117 0.273 0.299 0.5 0.799 0.282 458 66% 0.52 19% 4 0 110 5 1 1
5 5 26.1 28 16 15 9 22 3 1 5.13 115 0.272 0.333 0.437 0.77 0.316 472 61% 0.89 17% 1 1 103 6 1 0
5 5 29 25 12 12 10 31 4 0 3.72 116 0.236 0.302 0.415 0.717 0.296 494 63% 0.7 23% 1 4 106 7 0 2
5 5 30 29 13 11 5 27 2 1 3.3 122 0.259 0.292 0.357 0.649 0.318 486 64% 0.56 19% 0 0 112 5 0 2
3 3 21.2 10 4 4 7 23 0 0 1.66 78 0.143 0.221 0.157 0.378 0.213 291 63% 1.4 10% 0 0 70 1 0 4

[Brutus]

Based on September, I would take those bottom 3 guys. But obviously there are six months in a season and I would take into account everything. I think, if Volquez pitches another gem or two, he will have earned a spot as he gives the Reds the best chance of winning when he's on.

[WVRedsFan]

So you think it's remotely possible that this team will lose 6 straight against the Astros and Brewers (who we have a combined 17-6 record against) AND the Cards will win 6 straight (4 against Colorado) AND the Reds will lose a one game playoff to the Cards? Wow. :eek: I understand that it IS baseball, but the odds of all those happening are astronomical. As a player, yes, it's important that they don't let up and think they've got it in the bag, but as a fan, that's just excessive worrying. The Reds will win one of those games...they won't even need the Cards to lose (which they will). It's safe to discuss the playoff rotation. :rolleyes:No worries. Just superstitious. I can remember those years I mentioned when the same discussions were held at the diner table (no internet), and it's a real disappointment when the collapse comes.



I understand your point. A colllapse has happened before so it could happen again. But I think WebScorpion is right. At this point it's just a matter of time. Just one win from the Reds or one loss by the Cards and we'll have one big celebration.

But, even if the Reds clinch tonight, I think Dusty should wait to set the starting rotation for the playoffs. It's just a hunch but I think the Reds will clinch before the NL Wildcard will be decided. And how Volquez will do tonight, and whether Wood will hit a wall, will matter as well.
Totally agree. We don't have a hammer, so it will have to be who is pitching best as the close of the season is near.

[WVRedsFan]

I truly feel for you if you are implying what I think you are impling....that the Reds could not make the playoffs. I have a better chance of being struck by lightning than that happening. Relax...it is in the bag.See my earlier post. I'm sperstitious. There are certain items of clothing I do not wear when the Reds are playing.

[redsfandan]

I think Volquez has helped his case for a spot in the playoff rotation.

[Far East]

#1 Bronson Arroyo
He's been there before, and he can show the young guys how it's done. He's less in need of rest than the other members of the rotation, so it'll be nice to give the other guys a little more time to rest up...

If (and that's a big "IF") Arroyo throws a game one gem -- less than 3 runs, more than 6 innings -- then to really roll the dice would have him pitch again on game 4 and (hopefully, if that goes well) again on the posible game 7. Any of those games on only 3 days' rest if necessary, which is what Bronson has frequently asked to be allowed to do, anyway.

[reds44]

If (and that's a big "IF") Arroyo throws a game one gem -- less than 3 runs, more than 6 innings -- then to really roll the dice would have him pitch again on game 4 and (hopefully, if that goes well) again on the posible game 7. Any of those games on only 3 days' rest if necessary, which is what Bronson has frequently asked to be allowed to do, anyway.
Well the first round is only 5 games, so we don't have to worry about that. I just don't think Arroyo is enough of an upgrade over Volquez/Wood/Homer (or whoever would pitch in game 4) to bring him back on short rest. It just doesn't make a lot of sense to do that, IMO.

[RED VAN HOT]

Some points stand out in the splits for the candidates.

Volquez is dramatically better at home. That is particularly true in K/BB ratio where he has actually walked more away than he has K'd. I would pencil him in for game 3 at home.

LH batters are hitting only .143 against Wood; RH batters are hitting .245. He is also a better pitcher on the road. If the objective is nullify Philly LH power, then he would be a good choice for games 2 and 5.

Arroyo is about the same at home as away. However, RH batters are hitting only .185 against him. LH batters are hitting .270. He is the most consistent pitcher and deserves a start. Yet, starting him against Philadelphia does not appear to be the best choice. It might be wise to have him in the pen to pitch to Werth, Victorino, or Polanco.

Cueto and Bailey have similar stats. Surprisingly, RHB hit both better than LHB do. Both are about the same home and away. Both have better stats in the second half than the first. My hunch is that Homer would be a little better out of the pen, so I would lean toward Cueto to start game 1.

[mth123]

Volquez, Wood, Arroyo.

[Redhook]

I strongly believe the Reds will go as far as Volquez takes them. If he's on, they have a chance to go pretty far. If he's off, it'll be tough.

I'd go:

Arroyo, Volquez, Wood, then Cueto if needed.

[reds44]

How do people not have Cueto in the top 3? He's been the team's best pitcher all season.

I'd honestly have Arroyo 4th at this point, but there's no way Dusty has it that way.

[thatcoolguy_22]

Its undecided who the matchup will be at this point, and now is the time to set up your rotation for the playoffs. Mine would be:

1 EV
2 Cueto
3 Arroyo
4 Wood

Cueto can get very passionate on the mound and fall apart. I want nothing to do with him opening the first playoff series in 15 years for Cincy. Ideally the cool head of Arroyo would be the number 1 but I like EV's stuff/savvy over the junk of BA. Wood needs to be in the rotation especially for the Phillies.

[reds44]

Assuming it's the Phillies, I've finally settled on the rotation I want:

Game 1: Volquez
The lone guy on the staff with true ace stuff. If on top of his game, he can go toe to toe with just about anybody. He doesn't seem to let big moments effect him like Cueto does either.

Game 2: Wood
A very lefty dangerous lineup, and he proved how well he can pitch earlier in the year in Philly.

Game 3: Arroyo
GABP will be electric with the first playoff game in it's history. Arroyo is a good guy to have out that won't let the situation get to big for him.

Game 4: Cueto
The staff's best pitcher all year, it could be an elimination or clinch game, but I feel as if it'll be the most low pressure game of the series. Let him get his feet wet in the playoffs. I know this contradicts what I said a couple posts above, but hey, oh well.

I can see the argument for pitching Arroyo in game two, though. If Volquez flops in game 1, it would allow you to bring Arroyo back on normal rest for a game 5 if it goes that far.

For those who don't know, if we face the Phillies the schedule would be:
Wednesday
Friday
Sunday
Monday
Wednesday

With the way the rotation is lined up right now, Volquez is due to pitch Sunday. If he is going to start game one, then you'd have to skip his start. However if he starts any game other than game 1, you really don't have to tweak the rotation at all. Not a big deal really, but just something to keep in mind.

[The Operator]

I'd go with Volquez in Game 1 too, but I can't see Dusty doing it. He could prove me wrong on that, but I don't see it. Bronson's the vet who just won 15 games three years in a row. That goes a long way with Dusty.

If I had my way:
Volquez
Arroyo
Wood
Cueto

My guess:
Arroyo
Cueto
Volquez
Wood

[membengal]

Assuming it's the Phillies, I've finally settled on the rotation I want:

Game 1: Volquez
The lone guy on the staff with true ace stuff. If on top of his game, he can go toe to toe with just about anybody. He doesn't seem to let big moments effect him like Cueto does either.

Game 2: Wood
A very lefty dangerous lineup, and he proved how well he can pitch earlier in the year in Philly.

Game 3: Arroyo
GABP will be electric with the first playoff game in it's history. Arroyo is a good guy to have out that won't let the situation get to big for him.

Game 4: Cueto
The staff's best pitcher all year, it could be an elimination or clinch game, but I feel as if it'll be the most low pressure game of the series. Let him get his feet wet in the playoffs. I know this contradicts what I said a couple posts above, but hey, oh well.

I can see the argument for pitching Arroyo in game two, though. If Volquez flops in game 1, it would allow you to bring Arroyo back on normal rest for a game 5 if it goes that far.

For those who don't know, if we face the Phillies the schedule would be:
Wednesday
Friday
Sunday
Monday
Wednesday

With the way the rotation is lined up right now, Volquez is due to pitch Sunday. If he is going to start game one, then you'd have to skip his start. However if he starts any game other than game 1, you really don't have to tweak the rotation at all. Not a big deal really, but just something to keep in mind.

This saves me from having to post this.

Against, the Phillies, this is what I would do as well. And we're playing the Phillies absent a complete collapse by the Braves to give the last two spots to the Giants and Padres. Not happening.

[mth123]

Assuming it's the Phillies, I've finally settled on the rotation I want:

Game 1: Volquez
The lone guy on the staff with true ace stuff. If on top of his game, he can go toe to toe with just about anybody. He doesn't seem to let big moments effect him like Cueto does either.

Game 2: Wood
A very lefty dangerous lineup, and he proved how well he can pitch earlier in the year in Philly.

Game 3: Arroyo
GABP will be electric with the first playoff game in it's history. Arroyo is a good guy to have out that won't let the situation get to big for him.

Game 4: Cueto
The staff's best pitcher all year, it could be an elimination or clinch game, but I feel as if it'll be the most low pressure game of the series. Let him get his feet wet in the playoffs. I know this contradicts what I said a couple posts above, but hey, oh well.

I can see the argument for pitching Arroyo in game two, though. If Volquez flops in game 1, it would allow you to bring Arroyo back on normal rest for a game 5 if it goes that far.

For those who don't know, if we face the Phillies the schedule would be:
Wednesday
Friday
Sunday
Monday
Wednesday

With the way the rotation is lined up right now, Volquez is due to pitch Sunday. If he is going to start game one, then you'd have to skip his start. However if he starts any game other than game 1, you really don't have to tweak the rotation at all. Not a big deal really, but just something to keep in mind.

That Wednesday, Friday, Sunday, Monday, Wednesday pattern would seem to suggest that only three starters are needed. Volquez on Weds, Wood on Friday, Arroyo on Sunday, and then Monday would be Volquez turn again with Wednesday coming back around to Wood. Of course the Phils will take advantage and go Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels, Halladay, Oswalt. A 7 game series against the Phils would be better for the Reds. One of the Reds big advantages are the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation not having the big drop-off that other teams have. That advantage will be useless in a series only needing 3 starters,

[membengal]

Actually, mth, Joe Blanton has been really good as well, and is a really good 4. The only place the Reds have an obvious rotation advantage on the Phillies is at the 5th spot, and that, obviously, doesn't matter in the playoffs.

I would skip Cueto in the NLDS myself, I know that will sound weird, but he sometimes gets too keyed up in big spots, and I don't think he matches up well with the Phillies. Maybe I am having too clear a memory of that 10 runs first inning beatdown the Phillies put on him in June of '09.

[mth123]

Actually, mth, Joe Blanton has been really good as well, and is a really good 4. The only place the Reds have an obvious rotation advantage on the Phillies is at the 5th spot, and that, obviously, doesn't matter in the playoffs.

I would skip Cueto in the NLDS myself, I know that will sound weird, but he sometimes gets too keyed up in big spots, and I don't think he matches up well with the Phillies. Maybe I am having too clear a memory of that 10 runs first inning beatdown the Phillies put on him in June of '09.

Agree. I'd go Volquez, Wood, Arroyo, Volquez and Wood. A rookie in Game 5 seems wierd, but Wood's head and composure are more impressive than his arm IMO. Having Cueto (and maybe Bailey and Lecure) for long relief would keep everybody on a short enough leash that hopefully nothing would get out of hand. If the team can get to the 6th in a close game I like the Reds chances with Rhodes, Masset and Chapman in the late innings.

[membengal]

Agree. I'd go Volquez, Wood, Arroyo, Volquez and Wood. A rookie in Game 5 seems wierd, but Wood's head and composure are more impressive than his arm IMO. Having Cueto (and maybe Bailey and Lecure) for long relief would keep everybody on a short enough leash that hopefully nothing would get out of hand. If the team can get to the 6th in a close game I like the Reds chances with Rhodes, Masset and Chapman in the late innings.

Co-sign with this plan.

Someone alert the media and Walt.

[joshnky]

My guess:
Arroyo
Cueto
Volquez
Wood

This is what we'll see if we face Philly although I think Wood will be in the third spot. Dusty is big on consistency and lacks originality so I would be surprised to see anything other than these four and even more shocked if game 1 and 2 are not Arroyo and Cueto.

[Will M]

what i would consider if i were the Reds manager:

game 1: Arroyo (calm veteran)

day off

game 2: Wood. throw the lefty & try to neutralize the Phillie's lefty bats. Planning to go twice with Wood is risky BUT there is not doubt that the Reds are underdogs here. i'd like to see a little 'outside the box' thinking here. plus Wood almost threw a perfect game against the Phillies in Philadelphia. another thing is that his road stats are significantly better than his home stats (whip 0.97 vs 1.81). get five innings out of Wood then turn it over to Ondrusek/Chapman/Masset/Rhodes/Coco.

day off

game 3: Cueto

game 4: Volquez. this will be a game against Holladay. whether the Reds are down 2-1 or up 2-1 I like Edison here.

day off

game 5: if Wood pitched well in game 2 he gets the call again with Bronson standing by in the pen in case of any hiccups. if Wood did not pitch well in game 2 then its Bronson to start.

.................................................. .................................................. ...

[cincinnati chili]

Consider the following

- There's about a 95% chance we're going to face the Phils in round 1 and start on the road

- We don't need a 4th starter in the first round due to the Phils choice of schedule

- Bronson Arroyo has pitched poorly (yes poorly not merely mediocre-ly) against lefties this year (.792 OPS). This has been the story much of his career.

- 5 of the phils bats are lefties or switch hitters, including two likely (and one possible) future hall-of-famers

- Cueto has a 1.20 ERA vs the Phils this year in two starts, including a great start in Philly

- Volquez, as up-and-down as he's been, has been significantly better vs. lefties than Arroyo (.691 OPS vs lefties)

- we all know (or should know) what Wood did to the phillies this year, and he's been comfortable pitching on the road

- Wood's OPS vs lefties is an infinitesimal .455; small sample, but that's RandyJohnsonesque

- Arroyo has a disastrous post-season record as a starter (2 starts, 8 IP, 8 ER), but a respectable record as a middle reliever. The "experience" factor is overstated. His "experience" consists largely of nearly derailing the Red Sox magical 2004 postseason. Overall, a 7.41 career postseason ERA.

- Bailey's purportedly improved numbers are a mirage. He has a 5.32 ERA this year against teams not named "Pittsburgh Pirates"

Ergo:

Game 1 at Philly - Cueto

Game 2 at Philly - Wood

Game 3 vs Philly - Volquez

Game 4 vs Philly (if nec) - Cueto

Game 5 at Philly (if nec) - Wood

Arroyo to pen as righty one-out guy or mop-up guy

Bailey should not sniff the playoff roster in any round of the playoffs, barring an injury to another starter or two

- Volquez didn't face the Phils over the past two years, but he absolutely destroyed them in their World Championship year in '08 (0.73 era in 2 starts)

[reds44]

Consider the following

- There's about a 95% chance we're going to face the Phils in round 1 and start on the road

- We don't need a 4th starter in the first round due to the Phils choice of schedule

- Bronson Arroyo has pitched poorly (yes poorly not merely mediocre-ly) against lefties this year (.792 OPS). This has been the story much of his career.

- 5 of the phils bats are lefties or switch hitters, including two likely (and one possible) future hall-of-famers

- Cueto has a 1.20 ERA vs the Phils this year in two starts, including a great start in Philly

- Volquez, as up-and-down as he's been, has been significantly better vs. righties than Arroyo (.691 OPS vs righties)

- we all know (or should know) what Wood did to the phillies this year, and he's been comfortable pitching on the road

- Wood's OPS vs lefties is an infinitesimal .455; small sample, but that's RandyJohnsonesque

- Arroyo has a disastrous post-season record as a starter (2 starts, 8 IP, 8 ER), but a respectable record as a middle reliever. The "experience" factor is overstated. His "experience" consists largely of nearly derailing the Red Sox magical 2004 postseason. Overall, a 7.41 career postseason ERA.

- Bailey's purportedly improved numbers are a mirage. He has a 5.32 ERA this year against teams not named "Pittsburgh Pirates"

Ergo:

Game 1 at Philly - Cueto

Game 2 at Philly - Wood

Game 3 vs Philly - Volquez

Game 4 vs Philly (if nec) - Cueto

Game 5 at Philly (if nec) - Wood

Arroyo to pen as righty one-out guy or mop-up guy

Bailey should not sniff the playoff roster in any round of the playoffs, barring an injury to another starter or two

- Volquez didn't face the Phils over the past two years, but he absolutely destroyed them in their World Championship year in '08 (0.73 era in 2 starts)
I'd love this, but it's just not realistic.

[MWM]

I strongly believe the Reds will go as far as Volquez takes them. If he's on, they have a chance to go pretty far. If he's off, it'll be tough.

+1

I don't see how Volquez is not one of the top 2 guys. I think I'd start with Cueto, then Volquez. If it's philly, I'd go with Wood after that only because they're lefty heavy.

[fearofpopvol1]

If we play the Phillies in round 1...I would go Cueto/Wood/Arroyo.

I think Cueto deserves the top spot...he's pitched better than anyone else on the staff this year. And he has pitched well against Philly. I give Wood the 2nd spot because of the lefty-heavy lineup. Plus, how can you forget the near no-hitter? Arroyo the 3rd spot because of his experience and because he's been the 2nd best pitcher on the team.

I think Dusty will roll out Arroyo, Cueto than Wood. I'm not really a big fan of relying on Arroyo to possibly make 2/5 starts against Philly, but I think that's what Dusty will go with.

[cincinnati chili]

I'd love this, but it's just not realistic.

Am I correct that Arroyo's contract is up and he's gone next year?

If so, it's much more important for Baker to show confidence in Cueto, Wood, and Volquez than Arroyo. It would also give Baker the best chance to win this year.

It's a win, win. But I suspect he'll chicken out and we'll see Arroyo instead of Volquez.

If we advance tot he next round, we'll need four starters unless he wants to risk short-resting guys. Arroyo can start then if we make it that far.

[fearofpopvol1]

Am I correct that Arroyo's contract is up and he's gone next year?

If so, it's much more important for Baker to show confidence in Cueto, Wood, and Volquez than Arroyo. It would also give Baker the best chance to win this year.

It's a win, win. But I suspect he'll chicken out and we'll see Arroyo instead of Volquez.

If we advance tot he next round, we'll need four starters unless he wants to risk short-resting guys. Arroyo can start then if we make it that far.

Arroyo has an option for next year. Nobody knows if Walt will pick it up or not. I hope they do pick it up. The staff is still young and he's a lock for good production.

[Chip R]

It's a win, win. But I suspect he'll chicken out and we'll see Arroyo instead of Volquez.

I don't think it's chicken at all. If the Reds start in Philly, they will be dealing with national media for one of the few times this year, they will be dealing with a hostile crowd and a lineup of guys who can smack the ball around pretty good. I love the young guys but in Game 1 on the road I like a guy with experience who is not going to get flustered by the situation. It's not like you're throwing Harang out there.

[Screwball]

I'd love this, but it's just not realistic.

Agreed. Arroyo vs. the Phillies is an obvious disadvantage for the Reds, but there's no way in hell Dusty doesn't have Arroyo start at least one game against the Phils. In fact, he'll probably open up the series.

[TheNext44]

I don't think it's chicken at all. If the Reds start in Philly, they will be dealing with national media for one of the few times this year, they will be dealing with a hostile crowd and a lineup of guys who can smack the ball around pretty good. I love the young guys but in Game 1 on the road I like a guy with experience who is not going to get flustered by the situation. It's not like you're throwing Harang out there.

Yep. I think Arroyo is the smartest choice for game one. For the reasons above and also because splits don't matter that much in the post-season. It's one game, 27 outs. You want you best pitcher out there, and right now that's Bronson. Besides, he hasn't faced these guys in three years. That's to his advantage.

I would go Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez. I like Wood in relief. He's a rookie. He's tough, but I just don't want a rookie starting in the playoffs unless he's been dominant all season, or there is no other choice.

You do not want to underestimate the pressure of pitching in the playoffs. It has shaken many pitchers much more experienced and tougher than Wood.

[Will M]

Consider the following

- There's about a 95% chance we're going to face the Phils in round 1 and start on the road

- We don't need a 4th starter in the first round due to the Phils choice of schedule

- Bronson Arroyo has pitched poorly (yes poorly not merely mediocre-ly) against lefties this year (.792 OPS). This has been the story much of his career.

- 5 of the phils bats are lefties or switch hitters, including two likely (and one possible) future hall-of-famers

- Cueto has a 1.20 ERA vs the Phils this year in two starts, including a great start in Philly

- Volquez, as up-and-down as he's been, has been significantly better vs. lefties than Arroyo (.691 OPS vs lefties)

- we all know (or should know) what Wood did to the phillies this year, and he's been comfortable pitching on the road

- Wood's OPS vs lefties is an infinitesimal .455; small sample, but that's RandyJohnsonesque

- Arroyo has a disastrous post-season record as a starter (2 starts, 8 IP, 8 ER), but a respectable record as a middle reliever. The "experience" factor is overstated. His "experience" consists largely of nearly derailing the Red Sox magical 2004 postseason. Overall, a 7.41 career postseason ERA.

- Bailey's purportedly improved numbers are a mirage. He has a 5.32 ERA this year against teams not named "Pittsburgh Pirates"

Ergo:

Game 1 at Philly - Cueto

Game 2 at Philly - Wood

Game 3 vs Philly - Volquez

Game 4 vs Philly (if nec) - Cueto

Game 5 at Philly (if nec) - Wood

Arroyo to pen as righty one-out guy or mop-up guy

Bailey should not sniff the playoff roster in any round of the playoffs, barring an injury to another starter or two

- Volquez didn't face the Phils over the past two years, but he absolutely destroyed them in their World Championship year in '08 (0.73 era in 2 starts)


If we play the Phillies in round 1...I would go Cueto/Wood/Arroyo.

I think Cueto deserves the top spot...he's pitched better than anyone else on the staff this year. And he has pitched well against Philly. I give Wood the 2nd spot because of the lefty-heavy lineup. Plus, how can you forget the near no-hitter? Arroyo the 3rd spot because of his experience and because he's been the 2nd best pitcher on the team.

I think Dusty will roll out Arroyo, Cueto than Wood. I'm not really a big fan of relying on Arroyo to possibly make 2/5 starts against Philly, but I think that's what Dusty will go with.

you guys are on the same page as me. Wood in games 2 & 5 (both in Philly where he pitched fantastic) is what I really really hope for. I think this gives us our best shot to win. Wood has kinda struggled recently after 5 innings. no big deal. its the post season & with all those days off we could pitch all of our best relievers just about every game. so get 5 innings out of Wood in games 2 & 5 then bring on Chapman & Rhodes.

i forgot how Bronson can get crushed vs a lefty hitting power lineup. thanks for pointing that out.

[hebroncougar]

If it's me I go:

1. Wood
2. Cueto
3. Arroyo

And we'll see where we are. I think Wood is oblivious to the pressure, and I think he's a got a decent shot every time out to throw a gem. IMO, Cueto can't handle game 1. Something else I'd think about is who is the umpire, and how big their K zone is. If it's small, I might bump Cueto to a more favorable umpire. He adjusts the worst to how an umpire is calling a game.

I think I stick with this......with possibly starting Volquez in game 3 instead of Arroyo. I still think Wood should get the ball in game 1 against the Phils.

[cincinnati chili]

I don't think it's chicken at all. If the Reds start in Philly, they will be dealing with national media for one of the few times this year, they will be dealing with a hostile crowd and a lineup of guys who can smack the ball around pretty good. I love the young guys but in Game 1 on the road I like a guy with experience who is not going to get flustered by the situation. It's not like you're throwing Harang out there.

Semantics. If Dusty believes Arroyo gives him the best chance to win, then I disagree with him, but it's definitely not "chicken." But if he and his staff suspect that Arroyo is vulnerable in the same way I do, then I think it would be "chicken" for him to give him a first round start or two just because he "earned" it.

One of the post-season-announcer cliches I hate the most is "go with what got you there." (Get ready for McCarver to spit this one out). I totally disagree. Go with what's going to get you where you want to go next.

[WMR]

Cincy Chili for manager. Excellent posts.

Arroyo versus a left-handed slugging Philly lineup is a powder keg waiting to ignite.

[UKFlounder]

Yet a rookie who has never even sniffed the postseason before is that much safer and more likely to succeed?

I realize people are supporting Wood because he did have an excellent game, but let's remember - it was just one game and nothing else he did this year was close to that performance. So is that one game - sort of a fluke it seems - enough to earn him a spot in the rotation?

If so,let's remember Leake threw 8 excellent innings in Philly too before it fell apart in the 9th. Should he get a start based on that one game too? (Then again, he's right handed, so perhaps only left-handers with one excellent game deserve that consideration.)


Cincy Chili for manager. Excellent posts.

Arroyo versus a left-handed slugging Philly lineup is a powder keg waiting to ignite.

[Eric_the_Red]

Yet a rookie who has never even sniffed the postseason before is that much safer and more likely to succeed?

I realize people are supporting Wood because he did have an excellent game, but let's remember - it was just one game and nothing else he did this year was close to that performance. So is that one game - sort of a fluke it seems - enough to earn him a spot in the rotation?

If so,let's remember Leake threw 8 excellent innings in Philly too before it fell apart in the 9th. Should he get a start based on that one game too? (Then again, he's right handed, so perhaps only left-handers with one excellent game deserve that consideration.)

Take a look at Arroyo's career numbers vs. LHB, and his stats against the Phillies.

[Cedric]

Is it worth the reward to completely disrespect Arroyo and all he has done?

This is a players game and Dusty isn't going to ruin his reputation and disrespect Bronson because he struggles against LHP. At this point I don't think it's worth the possible difference in performance. I really don't think it's worth it when you consider it's a rookie who has struggle a bit recently.

That tells the whole team you are panicking and not trusting of what got you where you are.

That's just my two cents.

[UKFlounder]

It might be risky to start Arroyo, but I'm not sure it's less risky to start Wood.

I keep hearing how Wood being left-handed is an advantage, but Philly has done better vs LHP this year than against RHP.

Vs LHP: .267/.337/.428/.765
Vs RHP: .257/.329/.408/.737

Maybe Arroyo is not the right answer, but I'm not sure Wood is either if the logic is his one game.





http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/splits/_/name/phi/philadelphia-phillies


Take a look at Arroyo's career numbers vs. LHB, and his stats against the Phillies.

[UKFlounder]

Your previous post was excellent and enjoyable, but I disagree with this one.

The playoffs are about now. Win or go home.

Showing confidence in younger guys out of a respect for next year should not be part of the thought process. Go with who you think is better. If you think the younger guys are better, go with them, but do it based on expected performance, not based on a possible next year.

I also don't see how starting a guy who has outperformed the young guys all year (perhaps excepting Cueto) would affect their confidence at all.


Am I correct that Arroyo's contract is up and he's gone next year?

If so, it's much more important for Baker to show confidence in Cueto, Wood, and Volquez than Arroyo. It would also give Baker the best chance to win this year.

It's a win, win. But I suspect he'll chicken out and we'll see Arroyo instead of Volquez.

If we advance tot he next round, we'll need four starters unless he wants to risk short-resting guys. Arroyo can start then if we make it that far.

[Eric_the_Red]

It might be risky to start Arroyo, but I'm not sure it's less risky to start Wood.

I keep hearing how Wood being left-handed is an advantage, but Philly has done better vs LHP this year than against RHP.

Vs LHP: .267/.337/.428/.765
Vs RHP: .257/.329/.408/.737

Maybe Arroyo is not the right answer, but I'm not sure Wood is either if the logic is his one game.


The logic isn't his one, it is his numbers on the road this year, and Arroyo's career numbers vs lefties. EV, Wood & Arroyo would be the rotation I go with vs Philadelphia.

[IslandRed]

I realize the Reds could get away with using three starters against Philadelphia, but I figure they'll probably go with four. Unlike the Phillies, with a clear top three and a steep drop to #4, the Reds' 2-3-4 is kind of splitting hairs.

I would keep Bailey around in the bullpen. In five games against Philly, odds are the starter's going to get rocked in at least one of them, so I want a guy on the roster who can take the ball and go several innings and give the offense a chance to get back in the game.

[Reds Freak]

Walt just indicated on Reds Live, without indicating any names of course, that it will be a three-man rotation if they play the Phils. Interesting...

[alexad]

I realize the Reds could get away with using three starters against Philadelphia, but I figure they'll probably go with four. Unlike the Phillies, with a clear top three and a steep drop to #4, the Reds' 2-3-4 is kind of splitting hairs.

I would keep Bailey around in the bullpen. In five games against Philly, odds are the starter's going to get rocked in at least one of them, so I want a guy on the roster who can take the ball and go several innings and give the offense a chance to get back in the game.

But Bailey can not come out of the bullpen because it takes him too long to get warmed up.

[OnBaseMachine]

Walt just indicated on Reds Live, without indicating any names of course, that it will be a three-man rotation if they play the Phils. Interesting...

I don't like the sound of that. That probably means one of Volquez/Wood will be left out. I would start both of those guys in the playoffs, especially against the Phillies. Volquez, when he's on, is capable of shutting down the Phillies lineup, and we all know what Wood did last time he pitched in Philadelphia.

[mth123]

Walt just indicated on Reds Live, without indicating any names of course, that it will be a three-man rotation if they play the Phils. Interesting...

I think that is good. That leaves a couple guys available to come in early if one of the starters doesn't have it. These guys are so evenly matched, its best to give the team the option of going to another if one is getting hit early. It seems the best way to keep games from getting out of hand and if they have a four man rotation, there is one less option to replace one of these guys with. I could actually see a scenario where they tandem these guys to get to the 6th w/o Philly getting a good read on a starter. If guys like Volquez and Bailey only have to go through an order twice it helps them. Of course if the starter is going well you leave him in, but if they need to they could go Volquez/Lecure in one game, Wood/Cueto in another and Arroyo/Bailey in a third. Three tandems that could wade through a line-up three times w/o the hitter getting the same look twice. Naturally they wouldn't plan to do that, but it really allows Dusty and Price to keep these guys on a real short leash to try to prevent getting blown out.

[RedsManRick]

I don't like the sound of that. That probably means one of Volquez/Wood will be left out. I would start both of those guys in the playoffs, especially against the Phillies. Volquez, when he's on, is capable of shutting down the Phillies lineup, and we all know what Wood did last time he pitched in Philadelphia.

Jim Day just tweeted the same. "Walt Jockety just told me on Reds Live that if they play the Phillies, the Reds will use a 3 man pitching rotation"

I think you're right. There's no way Arroyo gets moved to the pen, even though he's been the least effective starter from a defense neutral perspective. Cueto, having been our #2 all year, will be in there too. That leaves 1 spot for Bailey/Wood/Voqluez.



Player GS IP IP/GS K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA FIP xFIP
Wood 16 96.1 6.0 7.5 2.3 0.8 .279 3.46 3.38 4.20
Bailey 18 104.0 5.8 7.8 3.2 1.0 .312 4.59 3.89 4.05
Cueto 31 185.2 6.0 6.7 2.7 0.9 .296 3.64 3.98 4.27
Volquez 12 62.2 5.2 9.6 5.0 0.9 .326 4.31 4.01 3.88
Arroyo 33 215.2 6.5 5.1 2.5 1.2 .246 3.88 4.62 4.61


Arroyo eats innings, but that's not what you need in the playoffs. I'd concede that he has the kind of stuff that induces weak contact, but that's what his .290 career BABIP shows -- .246 suggests a good dose of luck/good defense. Even the king of weak contact, Mo' Rivera, has a .274 career BABIP.
Wood has been the most effective starter and it's not really close. He should be starting.
Volquez clearly has the ability to be the most dominant, but he's the least consistent. If he starts, he should be on a short rope.
Everybody seems to assume Bailey will be out of the pen, but I wouldn't be so sure. Since coming back in August, he's got a 3.70 ERA and a 3.24 WHIP (8.3 K/9, 2.7 BB/9). He also has trouble getting loose quickly I believe.
Cueto has been there all year, and you'd like to reward him for that. He's been solid all year, but that disaster start in Milwaukee two weeks ago has to be in the back of your mind.

I really don't know how I'd line these guys up, but I'm pretty sure I wouldn't run anybody out on short rest. Travis Wood would be in my top 3 against anybody. Volquez would be in there, but on a short leash. I probably like Cueto out of the bullpen more than Bailey or Arroyo.

If they do go with a 3 man rotation, I hope Dusty emulates Sparky and gets guys out of there as soon as it's clear they don't have it. We need to make good use out of our depth.

[kaldaniels]

With the depth the Reds have with the staff they could have a game where the pitcher would never bat...yeah, I'm thinking way too far out of the box.

[OnBaseMachine]

Wow. Volquez to start game one.

From Tom Groeschen:

#reds Volquez to start playoff opener, Harang to start season finale Sun, Baker said after game

http://twitter.com/TomGroeschen

[Homer Bailey]

Wow. Who could have pictured that after that debacle in SF?

[membengal]

You go on with your bad self, Walt! Excellent decision.

[cincinnati chili]

Is it worth the reward to completely disrespect Arroyo and all he has done?

This is a players game and Dusty isn't going to ruin his reputation and disrespect Bronson because he struggles against LHP. At this point I don't think it's worth the possible difference in performance. I really don't think it's worth it when you consider it's a rookie who has struggle a bit recently.

That tells the whole team you are panicking and not trusting of what got you where you are.

That's just my two cents.

I respect but happen to disagree with your two cents. If we make it to round two, we'll need four starters. Depending on the matchup, Arroyo could be the #1 or #2 option. But not against a lefty-hitting Philly lineup. The Reds need to play to win not to keep a $10 million-plus-per-year guy happy.

[D-Man]

Wow. Volquez to start game one.

From Tom Groeschen:

#reds Volquez to start playoff opener, Harang to start season finale Sun, Baker said after game

http://twitter.com/TomGroeschen

If true, this is the gutsy-like move that the Reds must make to advance in the postseason. I love it. Volquez is no sure thing, but when he's on his game, he is the most dominant pitcher the Reds have.

As for Wood, he's pitched 202 innings this year, after 167.2 IP last year. The Verducci Effect is a troubling leading indicator for him and his future; as such, every inning from here on out poses an increased injury risk for Travis. The Reds are rolling the dice with him.

With that said, I'm squarely in the camp that Wood should be starting in Philly. It's been 15 years since the franchise's last playoff appearance--who knows what the future holds.

[Cedric]

I respect but happen to disagree with your two cents. If we make it to round two, we'll need four starters. Depending on the matchup, Arroyo could be the #1 or #2 option. But not against a lefty-hitting Philly lineup. The Reds need to play to win not to keep a $10 million-plus-per-year guy happy.

You were right and I don't mind. I'm just stunned with what I thought I knew about Dusty.

[cincinnati chili]

You were right and I don't mind. I'm just stunned with what I thought I knew about Dusty.

I pushed for him to get a start against the Phils, but it wasn't really a prediction. I'm surprised, and hopefully we'll all become pleasantly surprised.

[mth123]

If true, this is the gutsy-like move that the Reds must make to advance in the postseason. I love it. Volquez is no sure thing, but when he's on his game, he is the most dominant pitcher the Reds have.

As for Wood, he's pitched 202 innings this year, after 167.2 IP last year. The Verducci Effect is a troubling leading indicator for him and his future; as such, every inning from here on out poses an increased injury risk for Travis. The Reds are rolling the dice with him.

With that said, I'm squarely in the camp that Wood should be starting in Philly. It's been 15 years since the franchise's last playoff appearance--who knows what the future holds.

I share your concerns with Wood, but he's a clear choice. Fingers crossed.

[Brutus]

If true, this is the gutsy-like move that the Reds must make to advance in the postseason. I love it. Volquez is no sure thing, but when he's on his game, he is the most dominant pitcher the Reds have.

As for Wood, he's pitched 202 innings this year, after 167.2 IP last year. The Verducci Effect is a troubling leading indicator for him and his future; as such, every inning from here on out poses an increased injury risk for Travis. The Reds are rolling the dice with him.

With that said, I'm squarely in the camp that Wood should be starting in Philly. It's been 15 years since the franchise's last playoff appearance--who knows what the future holds.

You mean the Verducci Non-Effect? No one has yet shown any evidence there's anything to that whole study.

30 innings over 6 months really isn't a big deal. That's 5 extra innings in a month time period. I wish people would think about that more closely... 5 innings in a month. Not a big deal.

The body can take that kind of gradual work if it's conditioned to do so properly. Mechanics can cause injury, but that's true whether it's 30 innings or 300 innings.