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corkedbat
09-20-2010, 01:46 AM
OK, I waa bored this evening and came up with 16 OFers that I wouldn't mind seeing in LF next year (at least in platoon). Which ones are realistic, which would you want and what would it take (if they aren't FAs)? Or would you look within?

1. Carl Crawford (TB) *FA
2. Jayson Werth (PHI) *FA
3. Nick Swisher (NYY)
4. Nelson Cruz (TEX)
5. Ryan Ludwick (SD)
6. Alex Rijos (CHW) (OR) Carlos Quentin (CHW)
7. Grady Sizemore (CLE)
8. Matt Kemp (LAD)
9. Nick Markakis (BAL)
1o. Delwyn Young (MIN)
11. Luke Scott (BAL)
12. Shin-Soo Choo (CLE)
13. Coco Crisp (OAK) *FA
14. Kosuke Fukodome (CHC)
15. Ty Wiggington (BAL) *FA
16. Vladimir Guerrero (TEX) *FA [EDIT: Oops! Forgot one]

Johnny Footstool
09-20-2010, 01:59 AM
Coco Crisp would be a fairly cheap option. He'd probably jump at a two-year deal.

Brutus
09-20-2010, 02:57 AM
One name not listed that could wind up being available is David Dejesus. The Royals have an option on him and many people believe they will not exercise it. He would be a tremendous option for the Reds, IMHO.

Will M
09-20-2010, 03:34 AM
One name not listed that could wind up being available is David Dejesus. The Royals have an option on him and many people believe they will not exercise it. He would be a tremendous option for the Reds, IMHO.

assuming he is healthy i agree.

Dan
09-20-2010, 07:59 AM
Colby Rasmus

Redsfan320
09-20-2010, 08:38 AM
Delwyn Young is a Utility guy with the Pirates, Delmon Young is the Twins LFer, and I'm assuming the one you're after.

320

hebroncougar
09-20-2010, 09:06 AM
I could live with Crisp. Sizemore would be my ideal target. How's Clevelands 1b situtation?

edit....I see they have Laporta, I was thinking he was an OF'er for some reason.

PuffyPig
09-20-2010, 09:44 AM
Colby Rasmus


If Rasmus was available, and if the Cards would trade him too us, Stubbs would be going the other way, making Rasmus our CF.

I don't see the Reds spending much to obtain a LF, whether in terms of money or prospects.

Our current LF who most hate will still drive in 90 runs, so average production at that position is relatively easy to obtain.

Although I could see us trading someone like Alonso to get a very good prospect who profiles more as a good hitting LF than CF or RF.

lollipopcurve
09-20-2010, 09:47 AM
Ellsbury

Griffey012
09-20-2010, 09:52 AM
I would move Carlos Quentin way down or off the list. At this point he is a more expensive version of Gomes. Personally, I don't see us having much of a chance to get anybody 1-10, I think Markakis and Kemp would be the 2 I would target, as we may be able to get them at an undervalued price, especially with Kemp's situation in LA.

As far as the bottom 5, I really like Scott, Crisp, and Fukudome. Scott could be a 30 home run guy in our park and playing everyday. He has put up some quietly good numbers the past 2 seasons in a poor BAL lineup. Crisp would be a solid top of the order guy and he can steal some bags and play D. Fukudome has put up better numbers than a lot of people think while playing in Chicago, and he gets on base a ton. Which would be perfect for hitting right in front of Votto in the 2 hole.

Superdude
09-20-2010, 09:59 AM
Votto.

RedsManRick
09-20-2010, 10:08 AM
The Cubs would probably give Fukudome away if somebody would take his salary.

lollipopcurve
09-20-2010, 10:40 AM
The way I see it, if the Reds are willing to give Boston either Grandal or Mesoraco, they'd have an inside track on acquiring Ellsbury, who Boston will be looking to deal.

Ellsbury is still young (at least 3 years of control, so far as I can tell), and would provide the Reds with a great leadoff hitter who plays elite defense in LF. Can't see a better target....

hebroncougar
09-20-2010, 10:42 AM
The way I see it, if the Reds are willing to give Boston either Grandal or Mesoraco, they'd have an inside track on acquiring Ellsbury, who Boston will be looking to deal.

Ellsbury is still young (at least 3 years of control, so far as I can tell), and would provide the Reds with a great leadoff hitter who plays elite defense in LF. Can't see a better target....

I'd do either of those in a heartbeat.

WVRed
09-20-2010, 10:42 AM
The most attractive on that list to me is Nick Swisher.

Switch hitter and can also play at 1B or RF if need be. His batting average has improved but he would be good for 25-30 HR and 80-85 RBI's. Numbers might also improve in GABP.

That being said, unless he is a FA or we could find a third team that could provide something of value to the Yankees, its a long shot.

The Operator
09-20-2010, 11:09 AM
The way I see it, if the Reds are willing to give Boston either Grandal or Mesoraco, they'd have an inside track on acquiring Ellsbury, who Boston will be looking to deal.

Ellsbury is still young (at least 3 years of control, so far as I can tell), and would provide the Reds with a great leadoff hitter who plays elite defense in LF. Can't see a better target....Why would Boston be looking to deal him, though?

_Sir_Charles_
09-20-2010, 11:22 AM
The most attractive on that list to me is Nick Swisher.

Switch hitter and can also play at 1B or RF if need be. His batting average has improved but he would be good for 25-30 HR and 80-85 RBI's. Numbers might also improve in GABP.

That being said, unless he is a FA or we could find a third team that could provide something of value to the Yankees, its a long shot.

Not that much of an upgrade over Gomes though. Gomes is on pace for about 20 hr's and 90 rbis. If we're going to go after somebody for left it would have to be a substantial improvement over Gomes' production. People can say what they want about the guy, but he's been great in the clubhouse, he never dogs it, and I can't really complain too much about 20/90. Defensively, yeah, he's pretty sub par. But he's at least league average overall I'd say (offense & defense combined)

lollipopcurve
09-20-2010, 11:24 AM
Why would Boston be looking to deal him, though?

He's been on the outs with management, his teammates and the media (relentless up here) all year long based on his rib injuries.

BRM
09-20-2010, 11:58 AM
Not that much of an upgrade over Gomes though. Gomes is on pace for about 20 hr's and 90 rbis. If we're going to go after somebody for left it would have to be a substantial improvement over Gomes' production. People can say what they want about the guy, but he's been great in the clubhouse, he never dogs it, and I can't really complain too much about 20/90. Defensively, yeah, he's pretty sub par. But he's at least league average overall I'd say (offense & defense combined)

Swisher has him by 100 points of OPS. He'd definitely be an upgrade offensively. Not sure defensively without looking up the numbers. I haven't seen him enough to use WoTV.

I think you'll get quite a few disagreements on Gomes being league average overall.

RedsManRick
09-20-2010, 12:08 PM
If the Sox go after Crawford, as many people expect them to, that leaves them with an extra OF -- either Ellsbury or Cameron. Cameron might be the more realistic target.

I'm not really interested in anybody on that list that's a below average fielder. If that's what we wanted, we could just go with a Gomes/Dorn platoon.

I would love to buy low on Matt Kemp, but don't have the foggiest idea about what the Dodgers would be looking for.

bucksfan2
09-20-2010, 12:45 PM
Crawford would really fit everything the Reds are building themselves around. A young(er) LF, good defenseman, aggressive on the base paths, and would solve the top of order issue. The one thing to remember if the Reds sign Crawford is they would lose their 1st round draft pick. Granted the Reds are starting to think more along the lines of major league club, but I don't know if its organizationally prudent to sign Crawford.

I would send Alonso to the Arizona fall league and tell him to play LF every day. I would give it my best shot with him out there. I doubt he ever plays LF so its looking more like a trade is the best way to get someone here. I like the Matt Kemp idea. It seems like he has become too "Hollywood" out there with the Dodgers. I don't know if they have soured on him or not but he sure would look good out in LF for the Reds.

Homer Bailey
09-20-2010, 12:49 PM
Reds are not signing Carl Crawford. Let's at least move on from that.

camisadelgolf
09-20-2010, 12:50 PM
What do you think it would take to get one of Travis Snider, Nolan Reimold, or Alex Gordon? All three are young and have plenty of potential. I'd imagine that Matt Maloney or Homer Bailey would be more than enough to pique someone's interest.

edabbs44
09-20-2010, 12:53 PM
If the Sox go after Crawford, as many people expect them to, that leaves them with an extra OF -- either Ellsbury or Cameron. Cameron might be the more realistic target.

I'm not really interested in anybody on that list that's a below average fielder. If that's what we wanted, we could just go with a Gomes/Dorn platoon.

I would love to buy low on Matt Kemp, but don't have the foggiest idea about what the Dodgers would be looking for.

Isnt Kemp a below average fielder?

Johnny Footstool
09-20-2010, 01:30 PM
What do you think it would take to get one of Travis Snider, Nolan Reimold, or Alex Gordon? All three are young and have plenty of potential. I'd imagine that Matt Maloney or Homer Bailey would be more than enough to pique someone's interest.

Alex Gordon does need a new home - the Royals have lost patience with him. But Maloney or Bailey would be way too much to give up for a poor-fielding LF who has yet to crack .800 OPS.

Johnny Footstool
09-20-2010, 01:31 PM
Isnt Kemp a below average fielder?

He was excellent in CF in 2009. I don't know about this year.

BRM
09-20-2010, 01:36 PM
He was excellent in CF in 2009. I don't know about this year.

His UZR is in Johnny Gomes territory this year.

Johnny Footstool
09-20-2010, 01:38 PM
His UZR is in Johnny Gomes territory this year.

Really? Wow. Wasn't he 5th in UZR in CF last year?

camisadelgolf
09-20-2010, 01:39 PM
Alex Gordon does need a new home - the Royals have lost patience with him. But Maloney or Bailey would be way too much to give up for a poor-fielding LF who has yet to crack .800 OPS.
For what it's worth, although you're being realistic about Gordon, you have to keep in mind Bailey's performance, too. He has poor career numbers with poor peripherals, so it's not like the Reds should expect to get someone significantly better than Gordon. I'm not condoning a one-for-one trade, but if the Reds' scouts feel like Gordon can live up to his potential, then they should probably explore offering Bailey and possibly receiving a mid-level prospect in addition to Gordon.

camisadelgolf
09-20-2010, 01:42 PM
Really? Wow. Wasn't he 5th in UZR in CF last year?
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Ahaijtt9Ho79cGmtr4OgcSoRvLYF?slug=jp-tendegrees062010

Every time Kemp runs to the outfield, Rihanna should sing “SOS.” A year after he won the Gold Glove, Kemp has been the single worst fielder in the major leagues, according to various defensive metrics, and it’s not even close.

RedsManRick
09-20-2010, 03:06 PM
For what it's worth, although you're being realistic about Gordon, you have to keep in mind Bailey's performance, too. He has poor career numbers with poor peripherals, so it's not like the Reds should expect to get someone significantly better than Gordon. I'm not condoning a one-for-one trade, but if the Reds' scouts feel like Gordon can live up to his potential, then they should probably explore offering Bailey and possibly receiving a mid-level prospect in addition to Gordon.

Bailey for Gordon seems about even to me. Both guys were top prospects who failed to impress given multiple chances, but who can do enough as is to justify a spot on the roster and still have major upside.

I(heart)Freel
09-20-2010, 03:09 PM
Couching this discussion should be the reality that Gomes' option for 2011 is cheap. Like, stupid cheap. $1.75 mill.

If Reds pick up Arroyo option and sign Votto to the contract we all suspect they will, then retaining Gomes (for all his warts) for $1.75 mill might be the smart play.

nemesis
09-20-2010, 03:34 PM
If the Reds trade for a LFer the only LF I am interested in is Carlos Quentin.

He just turned 28 entering his prime years.

He has hit 20 or more HR's 3 straight years despite injuries and Ozzie's dog house.

Walks above 9%. K's less than 18.5% of the time.

Has suffered 2 horrible seasons of ridiculously low BABIP (.221 in 2009 / .239 2010) Still managed to OPS better than Gomes both years.

His UZR150 is all over the place. As high as 13.7 as low as -28.8.

Plays both L and R Field.
Chicago is in need of younger cheap OF help, a 1B/DH type and possibly a Third baseman if they decide not to go with Viciedo at 3B just yet or if he ends up at DH.

Alonso, Smith and one of (Frazier,Fransico,Heisey,Sappelt) should get it done.


If this isn't an option I'd be good with Sappelt in LF. Kid can hit and get on base and most importantly LEAD OFF...

marcshoe
09-20-2010, 03:44 PM
I want Werth (have since he was with the Dodgers), but I figure he'll have a lot of suitors. I'm not prepared to settle for a scub at this point, though.

lollipopcurve
09-20-2010, 03:51 PM
No way on Bailey for Gordon. Too soon to give up on Homer. He's shown enough flashes, and he's still only 24. I don't see the upside in Alex Gordon at this point. Plus he brings subpar defense to the table in LF.

In this case, the fact that Homer is a starting pitcher makes him worth quite a bit more than Gordon, a corner OF. Need to keep the young starting staff as intact as possible, unless you're getting an arm back.

Will M
09-20-2010, 04:07 PM
Unanswered questions:

1) can Votto play LF?

2) would Votto move to LF if asked?

assuming the answers to #1 & #2 are yes...
3) could Alonso OPS 850 in 2011?

if the Votto to LF/Alonso at 1B scenario won't work...
4) how much money would the Reds have in the budget for either a free agent left fielder or a trade for a left fielder whose salary isn't dirt cheap?

edabbs44
09-20-2010, 04:17 PM
Couching this discussion should be the reality that Gomes' option for 2011 is cheap. Like, stupid cheap. $1.75 mill.

If Reds pick up Arroyo option and sign Votto to the contract we all suspect they will, then retaining Gomes (for all his warts) for $1.75 mill might be the smart play.

I think you are correct. And it is cheap enough that you can make him a platoon player / bench player pretty easily.

Homer Bailey
09-20-2010, 04:17 PM
Reds don't seem interested in moving Votto to LF, and I don't blame them.

Werth just signed with Boras. So we can effectively forget about him too.

TheNext44
09-20-2010, 04:41 PM
If the Sox go after Crawford, as many people expect them to, that leaves them with an extra OF -- either Ellsbury or Cameron. Cameron might be the more realistic target.

I'm not really interested in anybody on that list that's a below average fielder. If that's what we wanted, we could just go with a Gomes/Dorn platoon.

I would love to buy low on Matt Kemp, but don't have the foggiest idea about what the Dodgers would be looking for.

Unfortunately, neither do the Dodgers.

LoganBuck
09-20-2010, 04:53 PM
The Twins have to make a decision on Michael Cuddyer this offseason. He has had a down year, he has struggled this year, and his home and road splits show no real difference, so you can't really blame the decline on the park switch. He was money in the bank several years ago. In the new area of PED testing, is he over the hill, or just a player looking for a bounce back?

_Sir_Charles_
09-20-2010, 04:54 PM
Couching this discussion should be the reality that Gomes' option for 2011 is cheap. Like, stupid cheap. $1.75 mill.

If Reds pick up Arroyo option and sign Votto to the contract we all suspect they will, then retaining Gomes (for all his warts) for $1.75 mill might be the smart play.

This is kinda my point earlier. I'm not saying Gomes is great by any stretch of the imagination, but compared to the money we're paying him...we're actually getting pretty good bang for the buck.

(regarding my earlier post) And the swisher comparison...I wasn't really pointing to any specific stats like OPS. I was only looking at the projection that somebody had posted for Swisher and it wasn't far off what Gomes has already done this season.

The Operator
09-20-2010, 07:31 PM
Reds are not signing Carl Crawford. Let's at least move on from that.
Ya never know, I didn't think they'd have a snowball's chance in Hades of signing Aroldis Chapman, either. But they got it done.

That being said, I doubt they nab Crawford, but it wouldn't floor me if they did. This isn't the same old Carl Lindner / John Allen / Dan O'Brien Reds. And Thank God.

HokieRed
09-20-2010, 07:36 PM
Dan O'Brien Reds? Is that the Dan O'Brien who's responsible for Bruce, Cueto, Wood, Bailey, Ondrusek, Janish, LeCure, Francisco et.al.? This is very much the Dan O'Brien Reds, and Thank God for it. It's the incredible value those players represent that's largely responsible for this team's being where it is.

nate
09-20-2010, 07:41 PM
This is kinda my point earlier. I'm not saying Gomes is great by any stretch of the imagination, but compared to the money we're paying him...we're actually getting pretty good bang for the buck.

I'd argue the Reds are actually upside-down on Gomes this year.


(regarding my earlier post) And the swisher comparison...I wasn't really pointing to any specific stats like OPS. I was only looking at the projection that somebody had posted for Swisher and it wasn't far off what Gomes has already done this season.

And when you compare what Swisher has actually done this season? Add the fact that Swisher is between average and a little below average with the glove and can play both corner spots along with 1B and he's provided around $5 million of surplus value while Gomes has provided replacement value and actually COST the Reds money.

Mario-Rijo
09-20-2010, 09:09 PM
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Ahaijtt9Ho79cGmtr4OgcSoRvLYF?slug=jp-tendegrees062010


Every time Kemp runs to the outfield, Rihanna should sing “SOS.” A year after he won the Gold Glove, Kemp has been the single worst fielder in the major leagues, according to various defensive metrics, and it’s not even close.

Since he started hanging out with Rihanna he's went straight downhill. Think he's ruined by the glitz and glamour of the L.A. night life perhaps? FWIW Whatever Rihanna did too him I volunteer to be next, we could all use such a distraction. ;)

Spitball
09-20-2010, 11:24 PM
The way I see it, if the Reds are willing to give Boston either Grandal or Mesoraco, they'd have an inside track on acquiring Ellsbury, who Boston will be looking to deal.

Ellsbury is still young (at least 3 years of control, so far as I can tell), and would provide the Reds with a great leadoff hitter who plays elite defense in LF. Can't see a better target....

I absolutely don't see this happening. First, though the Sox may put out feelers on Ellsbury, I doubt they get an offer that will knock their "sox" off. They have youth and brittle old men in their outfield..and Ellsbury is the most proven, talented of the lot.

And certainly Grandal and Mesoraco are not the Sox style for an established player like Ellsbury. They already have Jarrod Saltamalacchia and Adalberto Ibarra for potential catchers. They are not going to deal a proven starter for excess potential at the catcher position. Actually, we are talking the Red Sox, and they will be looking for a proven veteran (or possibly a Colby Rasmus) if they are inclined to deal Ellsbury...which I doubt.

blumj
09-20-2010, 11:44 PM
I absolutely don't see this happening. First, though the Sox may put out feelers on Ellsbury, I doubt they get an offer that will knock their "sox" off. They have youth and brittle old men in their outfield..and Ellsbury is the most proven, talented of the lot.

And certainly Grandal and Mesoraco are not the Sox style for an established player like Ellsbury. They already have Jarrod Saltamalacchia and Adalberto Ibarra for potential catchers. They are not going to deal a proven starter for excess potential at the catcher position. Actually, we are talking the Red Sox, and they will be looking for a proven veteran (or possibly a Colby Rasmus) if they are inclined to deal Ellsbury...which I doubt.

FWIW, the same Boston mediots who are convinced the Red Sox are going to trade Ellsbury now were also sure they were going to trade Clay Buchholz last offseason. They never seem to remember how sure they were and how wrong they turned out to be.

KronoRed
09-20-2010, 11:53 PM
Reds are not signing Carl Crawford. Let's at least move on from that.

Lets hope not, that would be a gigantic waste of cash, he's a nice player but he'll be over paid much like Juan Pierre was.

Homer Bailey
09-21-2010, 12:41 AM
Lets hope not, that would be a gigantic waste of cash, he's a nice player but he'll be over paid much like Juan Pierre was.

Make no mistake, I would LOVE to see Crawford on the Reds, and I do not think it would be a waste of cash. Crawford is knocking down the door of being a 7 win player this year. He can rake at the plate and is one of the best outfielders in the game.

He should not be mentioned in the same sentence as Juan Pierre, with all due respect.

Griffey012
09-21-2010, 12:43 AM
Lets hope not, that would be a gigantic waste of cash, he's a nice player but he'll be over paid much like Juan Pierre was.

Comparing Carl Crawford to Juan Pierre is a pretty bad comparison. Sure Crawford is lightning quick, but he has HR ability, and is excellent in the field. Juan Pierre did neither of those.

reds44
09-21-2010, 12:53 AM
A lot of names I like in here. If there's one thing I learned from watching the Reds this year, it's that defense matters. I'm not totally opposted to some meathead in LF, but they have to be a legit hitter.

I'd probably put them, in order:
1. Ellsbury
2. Rasmus (not sure how realistic that is)
3. Kemp (only as a LFer though)
4. Quentin

I'm also not giving up Stubbs for any of them.

KronoRed
09-21-2010, 02:01 AM
Make no mistake, I would LOVE to see Crawford on the Reds, and I do not think it would be a waste of cash. Crawford is knocking down the door of being a 7 win player this year. He can rake at the plate and is one of the best outfielders in the game.

He should not be mentioned in the same sentence as Juan Pierre, with all due respect.

Wasn't comparing them, Crawford is a better player, but Pierre was overpaid based on "speed" much like Crawford will be, speeds goes first, he's 28 with a career obp of .337 and he wants a 7 year deal worth 15mill a year. No thanks.

Homer Bailey
09-21-2010, 11:48 AM
Wasn't comparing them, Crawford is a better player, but Pierre was overpaid based on "speed" much like Crawford will be, speeds goes first, he's 28 with a career obp of .337 and he wants a 7 year deal worth 15mill a year. No thanks.

Except that speed isn't what comes first with Crawford. What comes first is his incredible LF defense, coupled with the fact that he can hit. The guy is just entering his prime (.375 wOBA), and has OPS'd less than .800 exactly one time in the last 6 years. UZR consistently has him as a truly elite LF'er, and sprinkle in the fact that he can steal 50 some bases, and you have a player that's worth every bit of that $15M, IMO.

However, I can't see how that fits into the Reds budget plan.

blumj
09-21-2010, 02:46 PM
Crawford really is an all purpose pain in the behind as an opposing player. He's going to get on base a decent amount, he'll be a huge headache when he does, he'll hit doubles and triples and HRs off you, and you don't get many hits or doubles or "just enough" HRs to LF. I think he's worth a pretty big deal at his age, and I just hope it's a team outside the AL East that gives it to him.

Heath
09-21-2010, 02:59 PM
Nobody wants Adam Dunn at 1yr - 10 Mill?

;) :D

KronoRed
09-21-2010, 05:31 PM
Nobody wants Adam Dunn at 1yr - 10 Mill?

;) :D

Reds could do worse.

Scrap Irony
09-21-2010, 05:43 PM
Nobody wants Adam Dunn at 1yr - 10 Mill?

;) :D

I'd take him in a heartbeat.

But only because Stubbs' range would help (as would Bruce's, allowing Stubbs to move two more steps toward Dunn) and he'd be a supporting player behind Votto, Bruce, Volquez, Cueto, Phillips, Stubbs, and Rolen, rather than someone to depend on "for leadership".

Imagine Dunn cleanup:
Stubbs CF
Cozart/ Janish SS
Votto 1B
Dunn LF
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
Phillips 2B
Mesoraco/Hanigan C

That team would be above average positionally across the board, IMO, with the possible exception of SS.

klw
09-21-2010, 06:00 PM
I absolutely don't see this happening. First, though the Sox may put out feelers on Ellsbury, I doubt they get an offer that will knock their "sox" off. They have youth and brittle old men in their outfield..and Ellsbury is the most proven, talented of the lot.

And certainly Grandal and Mesoraco are not the Sox style for an established player like Ellsbury. They already have Jarrod Saltamalacchia and Adalberto Ibarra for potential catchers. They are not going to deal a proven starter for excess potential at the catcher position. Actually, we are talking the Red Sox, and they will be looking for a proven veteran (or possibly a Colby Rasmus) if they are inclined to deal Ellsbury...which I doubt.

What about:
Votto for Ellsbury, Kalish, Casey Kelly, Josh Reddick, Lars Anderson, Michael Bowden and Jose Iglesias.

edabbs44
09-21-2010, 06:32 PM
Fay chatted today and someone asked him who he thinks will be in LF for Cincy on opening day 2011.

You know the answer.

reds44
09-21-2010, 06:39 PM
Fay chatted today and someone asked him who he thinks will be in LF for Cincy on opening day 2011.

You know the answer.
Gomes?

edabbs44
09-21-2010, 07:17 PM
Yep, I said you'd know.

Brutus
09-21-2010, 07:21 PM
Fay chatted today and someone asked him who he thinks will be in LF for Cincy on opening day 2011.

You know the answer.

Fay's predictions are not always accurate, so I'll take that with a grain of salt (though certainly it's not far-fetched).

WVRed
09-21-2010, 07:34 PM
Another possibility without having to surrender anybody:

Chris Heisey

Would immediately improve the defense and is more of a speed threat. Power might not be what people want, but he would be pretty decent IMO.

edabbs44
09-21-2010, 07:45 PM
Another possibility without having to surrender anybody:

Chris Heisey

Would immediately improve the defense and is more of a speed threat. Power might not be what people want, but he would be pretty decent IMO.

He'd have to earn it obviously after spitting the bit when the door opened this year. And while the defense would definitely improve over JG, I think he has become overrated in that regard.

klw
09-21-2010, 07:46 PM
What about:
Votto for Ellsbury, Kalish, Casey Kelly, Josh Reddick, Lars Anderson, Michael Bowden and Jose Iglesias.

or Votto and Coco for Daniel Bard, Ellsbury, Kalish, Casey Kelly, Josh Reddick, Lars Anderson, and Jose Iglesias.

Captain Hook
09-21-2010, 07:48 PM
So where would Gomes and Heisey rank on the wish list?Might as well throw in Nix as he has been better then both when given the chance.

I'm not going to say the position doesn't need upgraded but many of those guys aren't much better then what we already have or a combination of that.If they could get one of the top 5 options listed there, I'd say to go for it.

klw
09-21-2010, 07:49 PM
In all seriousness, what about JD Drew as a target for a mid prospect if Boston puts in a good deal of the cash?

Griffey012
09-21-2010, 07:55 PM
In all seriousness, what about JD Drew as a target for a mid prospect if Boston puts in a good deal of the cash?

If we could get him on the cheap that would be a solid move. Platoon him with Gomes, or have Drew play full time then Gomes fill in when Drew hits the 15 day DL a few times a year.

blumj
09-21-2010, 08:05 PM
or Votto and Coco for Daniel Bard, Ellsbury, Ryan Westmoreland, Casey Kelly, Josh Reddick, Lars Anderson, and Jose Iglesias.

I know you don't mean anything by it, but can we leave Ryan Westmoreland out of the fake trade fun for now? He's getting better, but not so much better that I'm sure you wouldn't bring him up if you'd seen him.

klw
09-21-2010, 08:10 PM
I know you don't mean anything by it, but can we leave Ryan Westmoreland out of the fake trade fun for now? He's getting better, but not so much better that I'm sure you wouldn't bring him up if you'd seen him.

My mistake I took the top 5 BA Sox prospects from an old list without thinking about his situation. I wa not trying to be funny with his inclusion.

Brutus
09-21-2010, 08:12 PM
My mistake I took the top 5 BA Sox prospects from an old list without thinking about his situation. I wa not trying to be funny with his inclusion.

I just figured you were a sadomasochist. :D

blumj
09-21-2010, 08:13 PM
My mistake I took the top 5 BA Sox prospects from an old list without thinking about his situation. I wa not trying to be funny with his inclusion.

No, I know that you didn't mean anything by it, I thought my sig might have given the wrong impression.

klw
09-21-2010, 08:23 PM
I edited the suggestions to replace Westmoreland with Kalish though if Ellsbury was in the trae I think there would be a better target. The idea, esp with the 2nd, was to take Votto to the Reds Sox if he won't agree on a long term deal, dump Coco, bring in Coco's replacement in Bard, bring in a SS prospect, another OF though for the Reds maybe Ellsbury and Stubbs swap positions, Alonso slides into 1b with a replacement in Anderson in case he bombs and a taking of other Red Sox top prospects. I doubt either side does it but I was hoping to provoke discussion in a different way.

blumj
09-21-2010, 08:30 PM
Just in case you decide you'd rather have Anthony Rizzo than Lars Anderson, I should warn you he survived treatment for Hodgkin's Lymphoma 2 years ago. But he's fine now, so don't worry about it.

klw
09-21-2010, 08:32 PM
Just in case you decide you'd rather have Anthony Rizzo than Lars Anderson, I should warn you he survived treatment for Hodgkin's Lymphoma 2 years ago. But he's fine now, so don't worry about it.

Touche. What about the grand idea?

wally post
09-21-2010, 08:36 PM
I want to comment on possible trades but it is off topic so I won't for now - plenty of time for this after we win the World Series :D

blumj
09-21-2010, 09:00 PM
Touche. What about the grand idea?
Seriously, I think the Reds have to get Votto signed now, before it has a chance to turn into a $20+M a year contract situation, and the Red Sox should develop their own kids. But I'm not good at the fake trade business, it's fun to read everyone else's, though.

edabbs44
09-21-2010, 09:29 PM
Seriously, I think the Reds have to get Votto signed now, before it has a chance to turn into a $20+M a year contract situation, and the Red Sox should develop their own kids. But I'm not good at the fake trade business, it's fun to read everyone else's, though.

Last year the rumor was Boston going after Gonzo for I think Buchholz, Ellsbury and I think Lars. I thought the Reds should have swooped in with Votto and am happy they didn't, but that wouldn't have been a bad haul.

HokieRed
09-21-2010, 09:37 PM
If he can be talked into coming back, Edmonds.

Spitball
09-21-2010, 11:35 PM
What about:
Votto for Ellsbury, Kalish, Casey Kelly, Josh Reddick, Lars Anderson, Michael Bowden and Jose Iglesias.

I don't know if the Sox would give up quite that much. The Red Sox have the luxory of multiple options when trying to upgrade. Stripping the farm for a first baseman is not their only (or best?) option. They have Youkilis and can look to third base as an option.

I don't believe Iglesias could be included since he is definitely in their long range blueprint. With the age and health history of the outfield, I doubt Ellsbury and Kalish would both be traded. With the Reds' starting pitching depth, I doubt the Reds would push for both Casey Kelly and Bowden, and the exclusion of either or both would not be a deal breaker. Forget Daniel Bard as mentioned by someone else unless Paplebon agrees to sign for a huge discount and starts pitching as well as Bard.

So, if it were an offer of Ellsbury, Casey Kelly, Josh Reddick, and Lars Anderson for Votto, the Reds might be wise to jump at the deal. With Votto destined to make huge MVP-type money, the time to rebuild might be before the Reds end up with one player making 25% of their payroll.

Just my humble opinion.

Griffey012
09-24-2010, 02:02 PM
The thread about Aaron Harang and Mark Reynolds got me thinking, what about Mark Reynolds? Even with a .202 average and 203 K's he is still a 2 WAR player, he has some speed as shown by his stolen bases so he could probably actually make a decent defensive LF'er. His average has dipped significantly this season, but Arizona has been a mess altogether. Might be an opportunity to buy pretty low and could provide a solid power bat.

The Operator
09-24-2010, 02:05 PM
The thread about Aaron Harang and Mark Reynolds got me thinking, what about Mark Reynolds? I'd rather just bring Adam Dunn back.

Reynolds is probably cheaper, but Dunn has had some nice years in Washington. Maybe The Reds don't want to go back down that road, though.

Griffey012
09-24-2010, 02:11 PM
I'd rather just bring Adam Dunn back.

Reynolds is probably cheaper, but Dunn has had some nice years in Washington. Maybe The Reds don't want to go back down that road, though.

Writing about Reynolds definitely made me think a lot of Dunn. But the advantages I see to Reynolds are that he is definitely cheaper, and his LF defense would likely be much better than Dunn's due to his overall athletic ability.

_Sir_Charles_
09-24-2010, 02:25 PM
I'd rather just bring Adam Dunn back.

Reynolds is probably cheaper, but Dunn has had some nice years in Washington. Maybe The Reds don't want to go back down that road, though.

I'd say that's an absolute certainty. Those wishing to have Dunn back....better invest heavily in a time machine.

lollipopcurve
09-24-2010, 02:29 PM
I also like Beltran for LF, in some kind of salary swap.

I(heart)Freel
09-25-2010, 12:10 AM
Writing about Reynolds definitely made me think a lot of Dunn. But the advantages I see to Reynolds are that he is definitely cheaper, and his LF defense would likely be much better than Dunn's due to his overall athletic ability.

Reynolds:

11:$5M
12:$7.5M
13:$11M club option ($0.5M buyout)


No thankyou.

Brutus
09-25-2010, 12:23 AM
I also like Beltran for LF, in some kind of salary swap.

Convince them they need K-Rod insurance.

;)

kaldaniels
09-25-2010, 01:33 AM
Reynolds:

11:$5M
12:$7.5M
13:$11M club option ($0.5M buyout)


No thankyou.

Thats 2 years at 6.5 per....not unreasonable.

Griffey012
09-25-2010, 12:59 PM
Thats 2 years at 6.5 per....not unreasonable.

I agree, that .5 million option is buyout is nothing. It all depends on how he would fit into Arizona's plan. They may have soured on him and want him gone, which means they may even throw some cash in. But 5-7.5 million is about as cheap as we are going to be able to upgrade LF.

HokieRed
09-25-2010, 04:01 PM
I also like Beltran for LF, in some kind of salary swap.

Involving Phillips?

mth123
09-25-2010, 06:25 PM
Involving Phillips?

Hope not. Beltran will be 34, will make $18.5 Million next year and has been broken down for years. As flawed as Phillips may be, the in house options are a huge drop-off. I'd rather have Phillips and the in house guys in the OF than Beltran and the in house guys at 2B.

Beltran and $6.5 Million for Cordero would be a deal I'd do. I might even be tempted to throw in a Balentien or a Dorn.

HokieRed
09-25-2010, 06:27 PM
Hope not. Beltran will be 34, will make $18.5 Million next year and has been broken down for years. As flawed as Phillips may be, the in house options are a huge drop-off. I'd rather have Phillips and the in house guys in the OF than Beltran and the in house guys at 2B.

Beltran and $6.5 Million for Cordero would be a deal I'd do. I might even be tempted to throw in a Balentien or a Dorn.

I really wasn't endorsing Phillips for Beltran, just trying to find out what Lollipopcurve was advocating. I didn't think the primary subject could be Cordero, as I don't see anybody taking that contract for anything.

37red
09-25-2010, 06:41 PM
I have Dish network and can't find the game, any body know why? I read some where it was blocked out nation wide?

lollipopcurve
09-26-2010, 11:46 AM
I really wasn't endorsing Phillips for Beltran, just trying to find out what Lollipopcurve was advocating. I didn't think the primary subject could be Cordero, as I don't see anybody taking that contract for anything.

I think Beltran is going to have a big bounceback, and he can transform the Reds lineup and play excellent defense in LF. (Imagine Stubbs/Bruce/Votto/Beltran/Rolen as your top 5.) If the Mets would even out the money and throw in a solid prospect, I'd do the deal with Phillip or Arroyo. Cordero, sure, of course, but I doubt the Mets would be interested. I like Phillips a lot, but he's about to get real expensive, and 2B is a relatively easy position to fill.

My wish list remains Ellsbury or Beltran.

LoganBuck
09-26-2010, 01:00 PM
I think Beltran is going to have a big bounceback, and he can transform the Reds lineup and play excellent defense in LF. (Imagine Stubbs/Bruce/Votto/Beltran/Rolen as your top 5.) If the Mets would even out the money and throw in a solid prospect, I'd do the deal with Phillip or Arroyo. Cordero, sure, of course, but I doubt the Mets would be interested. I like Phillips a lot, but he's about to get real expensive, and 2B is a relatively easy position to fill.

My wish list remains Ellsbury or Beltran.

I think you may be closer here with Cordero than you think. The Mets want to trade Francisco Rodriguez. They make basically the same money, and Rodriguez needs to be extracted from New York. Rodriguez isn't a panacea but he would likely be at least a slight upgrade from Cordero. Of course no-trade clauses would likely come into play making it unlikely to happen.

edabbs44
09-26-2010, 01:17 PM
I think Beltran is going to have a big bounceback, and he can transform the Reds lineup and play excellent defense in LF. (Imagine Stubbs/Bruce/Votto/Beltran/Rolen as your top 5.) If the Mets would even out the money and throw in a solid prospect, I'd do the deal with Phillip or Arroyo. Cordero, sure, of course, but I doubt the Mets would be interested. I like Phillips a lot, but he's about to get real expensive, and 2B is a relatively easy position to fill.

My wish list remains Ellsbury or Beltran.

That Mets team is full of cancers. I wouldn't help them out by taking them on.

TheNext44
09-26-2010, 01:21 PM
I think you may be closer here with Cordero than you think. The Mets want to trade Francisco Rodriguez. They make basically the same money, and Rodriguez needs to be extracted from New York. Rodriguez isn't a panacea but he would likely be at least a slight upgrade from Cordero. Of course no-trade clauses would likely come into play making it unlikely to happen.

That's a very real possibility. Personally, I would be even money that Cordero is not on the Reds next season.

Scrap Irony
09-26-2010, 07:53 PM
I'l take that bet. Unless, of course, Cordero pulls a Mitch Williams and costs Cincinnati a playoff series. (But, since I think the Reds are less likely to be competitive, that question is going to remain moot.)

As for Beltran, lollipop has me convinced. I'd offer Phillips with the hope that Valaika, Janish, Frazier or some free agent will be able to OPS 800 or so and/or play solid D at the keystone position.

If the Reds can somehow find a way to send Cordero to New York and come away with Beltran, I'd be tickled.

Oxilon
09-26-2010, 08:10 PM
David DeJesus has a $6MM team option and the Royals haven't given any signals as to whether or not they'll exercise the option. If he's available, I'd love to put him in LF and than go hard after a legitimate #1 pitcher.

buckeyenut
09-26-2010, 08:45 PM
Would Beltran and KRod for Phillips and Cordero work?

edabbs44
09-26-2010, 08:48 PM
Would Beltran and KRod for Phillips and Cordero work?

That would be a friggin disaster for Cincy. Calling up Minaya to trade for some of his players right now is equivalent to placing a booty call to a chick with a raging STD that you are well aware of.

No thanks.

edabbs44
09-26-2010, 08:48 PM
I'l take that bet. Unless, of course, Cordero pulls a Mitch Williams and costs Cincinnati a playoff series. (But, since I think the Reds are less likely to be competitive, that question is going to remain moot.)

As for Beltran, lollipop has me convinced. I'd offer Phillips with the hope that Valaika, Janish, Frazier or some free agent will be able to OPS 800 or so and/or play solid D at the keystone position.

If the Reds can somehow find a way to send Cordero to New York and come away with Beltran, I'd be tickled.

I wouldn't hold my breath that anyone from that combo could OPS .800, especailly next year.

muddie
09-26-2010, 09:03 PM
Another possibility without having to surrender anybody:

Chris Heisey

Would immediately improve the defense and is more of a speed threat. Power might not be what people want, but he would be pretty decent IMO.

This is absolutely the way I would go. The kid has done everthing expected of him to date coming through the ranks. He's my number one guy, no question. This helps improve the team and helps the budget as well. Playing sporadically has to be more difficult than starting regularly and he has done a very good job when called upopn.

RedEye
09-26-2010, 11:33 PM
I'm still in the Heisey camp, too. Barring a Carl Crawford signing, he's who I want in LF next year. If they can sink or swim with a Taveras or a Gomes, I don't see why the heck they wouldn't be able to try out a guy who has better all-around potential than either of them ever have.

marcshoe
09-27-2010, 12:51 AM
No chance of Francisco ever becoming an adequate left fielder, is there?

I just can't bring myself to count on Heisey, even after today.

marcshoe
09-27-2010, 05:10 AM
'course another possibility is Todd Frazier (I feel like he's been mentioned here, but it's 4 AM). Maybe not the answer, but another possibility.

I still think this is the place to go after a proven power bat to mix into the lineup.

muddie
09-27-2010, 05:58 AM
No chance of Francisco ever becoming an adequate left fielder, is there?

I just can't bring myself to count on Heisey, even after today.

I have far less confidence in in Francisco becoming an everyday anything than Heisey in left. Francisco has some work to do to be anywhere near consistent.

edabbs44
09-27-2010, 08:04 AM
I have far less confidence in in Francisco becoming an everyday anything than Heisey in left. Francisco has some work to do to be anywhere near consistent.

It would be awesome if Heisey could come into ST and just take the job. the only issue with him doing that is you have to have a job that is takeable. Getting a name FA will not allow him to do that. Walking in with a guy like Gomes would and allow you to spend money elsewhere with another option like Gomes.

Food for thought.

Puffy
09-27-2010, 01:27 PM
My list:

(1) Carl Crawford - can you imagine a defensive outfield of Crawford, Stubbs and Bruce? Plus Crawford solves the question of who do you bat in front of Votto. Hubba hubba
(2) David DeJesus
(3) Grady Sizemore

I(heart)Freel
09-27-2010, 03:10 PM
Sorry if I missed it, but has anyone mentioned Johnny Damon?

I like the idea of using LF to fill the leadoff void I think this team has. Johnny also being long of tooth means he gets extra rest. That means Heisey gets decent playing time, allowing him to grow into a full timer.

High OBP in front of Votto just makes too much sense. And Damon got on at a 360 clip this season FWIW.

Scrap Irony
09-27-2010, 08:54 PM
Sizemore would be a great gamble to take.

It'd definitely take Maloney and more. The more would depend on whether Cleveland sees Sizemore as a building block or a stumbling block.

I'd go as high as Leake, Heisey, and Maloney, but would want the Indians to pay half his salary if I do go that high.

camisadelgolf
09-28-2010, 09:28 AM
Sizemore seems like the type of player who would be very well-suited for GABP. He's a left-handed hitter, and the small field combined with Drew Stubbs manning center field should be good for his health. He has only $8.0M guaranteed left on his contract, so he seems like a pretty good buy-low candidate to me. At the very worst, he could be a serviceable platoon partner with Jonny Gomes.

Benihana
09-29-2010, 05:01 PM
Sizemore would be a great gamble to take.

It'd definitely take Maloney and more. The more would depend on whether Cleveland sees Sizemore as a building block or a stumbling block.

I'd go as high as Leake, Heisey, and Maloney, but would want the Indians to pay half his salary if I do go that high.

While I'd love to take a chance on Sizemore, Leake+Heisey is a pretty steep price to pay for a one-year player with health concerns. The Indians don't need a 1B because of LaPorta, so Alonso doesn't help. I'd offer them any three full-season minor leaguers of their choice (or two + Heisey). I'm assuming they wouldn't take Mez because of Santana.

From MLBTR Chat Today:

What are the chances Matt Kemp can be had? Isn't Cincy kind of an ideal situation for him? Dusty Baker is a player's manager who's also good with egos, it's a great hitter's park, and there's a great balance of veteran leadership and core youngsters. Alonso and Wood get it done?

2:36 I do think Kemp can be had, though the Dodgers would be selling low. Cincy's a solid fit, Kemp in LF might make sense too.


I actually love the idea of Matt Kemp. With James Loney's regressing every year (OPS .772, .756, .728 last three years) they might have an interest in Alonso. I wouldn't add Leake or Wood to the deal though- that's too much. Any minor league pitcher would be fair game, or Chris Heisey of course.

Alonso and Heisey for Kemp. Gomes becomes your 4th OF/PH and Sappelt could be the defensive replacement.

membengal
09-29-2010, 05:03 PM
I've been thinking Leake/Alonso for Kemp and a good minor league piece might work. Actually, that's probably too much. Leake for Kemp? I would do that. Would LA? How is Leake valued?

Brutus
09-29-2010, 05:09 PM
I've been thinking Leake/Alonso for Kemp and a good minor league piece might work. Actually, that's probably too much. Leake for Kemp? I would do that. Would LA? How is Leake valued?

I love Leake and that package would be disappointing to give up, but I would do it in a heartbeat. Kemp is perfect for this team.

I'm not sure how other teams view Leake. It seems he would be a great fit for Dodger stadium, but it's a good question. I'm not sure what his value is.

membengal
09-29-2010, 05:13 PM
I love Leake and that package would be disappointing to give up, but I would do it in a heartbeat. Kemp is perfect for this team.

I'm not sure how other teams view Leake. It seems he would be a great fit for Dodger stadium, but it's a good question. I'm not sure what his value is.


That's kind of what I was thinking, and I am truly clueless as to what Leake's value is for trade purposes. I would think it should be stout, given his years of control before free agency, and the resume he put together this year, but he's not flawless. Chavez Ravine would be a great park for him to pitch in. Is he enough to make it a 1 for 1? Got me.

But I admit to still being smitten with Kemp, or the idea of Kemp. Kemp seems like the ideal Walt target (I think I have written that in other Kemp threads), a guy with talent whose original team has soured on him a bit. And the idea of a Kemp/Stubbs/Bruce OF from left to right makes me kind of giggly.

Brutus
09-29-2010, 05:17 PM
That's kind of what I was thinking, and I am truly clueless as to what Leake's value is for trade purposes. I would think it should be stout, given his years of control before free agency, and the resume he put together this year, but he's not flawless. Chavez Ravine would be a great park for him to pitch in. Is he enough to make it a 1 for 1? Got me.

But I admit to still being smitten with Kemp, or the idea of Kemp. Kemp seems like the ideal Walt target (I think I have written that in other Kemp threads), a guy with talent whose original team has soured on him a bit. And the idea of a Kemp/Stubbs/Bruce OF from left to right makes me kind of giggly.

Giggly is a compliment. I feel downright dirty for thinking about it. You'd have Votto-Rolen-Bruce-Kemp-Stubbs in the middle of the order next year if that happened. That's downright scary, even if we assume Rolen's production drops off a bit.

Benihana
09-29-2010, 05:19 PM
My overall (semi-realistic) wish list:

1. Matt Kemp
2. Grady Sizemore
3. Alex Rios
4. Colby Rasmus (see semi-realistic)
5. Going with what we got

Crawford and Werth are not affordable. Markakis, Cruz, and D.Young aren't going anywhere with their teams trying to compete for next season. Probably ditto for Rasmus, although there have been rumblings of his departure being hastened. Still probably wouldn't get dealt to the Reds either way. I'm not sure the other names are more attractive than going with what we got (some combination of Gomes, Heisey, Francisco, Frazier, and/or Alonso.)

edabbs44
09-29-2010, 05:24 PM
I love Leake and that package would be disappointing to give up, but I would do it in a heartbeat. Kemp is perfect for this team.

I'm not sure how other teams view Leake. It seems he would be a great fit for Dodger stadium, but it's a good question. I'm not sure what his value is.

Something scares me about Kemp.

membengal
09-29-2010, 05:26 PM
Something scares me about Kemp.

Wonder if Cardinals fans felt similarly about Edmonds when Walt acquired him. The Angels and their fans had really soured on him. Not saying they are the same, just noting that talent makes an intruiging target. I suspect a fresh start and a manager like Dusty and clubhouse like the Reds have would be a nice fit for Kemp.

Brutus
09-29-2010, 05:31 PM
Something scares me about Kemp.

He's had a terrible year, but he's still put up a .750 OPS and 19 steals despite his terrible OBP (fueled by a large K rate).

But he's a pretty good defender when compared to most LF and has had a lot of success playing at GABP in his career. I just think a change of scenery, to Cincinnati of all places, would really do him a lot of good.

I think the concerns are valid. I mean he's had a pretty bad year and hasn't been the model citizen. But put him in between Votto, Rolen, Bruce & Stubbs and I can't help but think that's Little Red Machine.

reds44
09-29-2010, 05:40 PM
My overall (semi-realistic) wish list:

1. Matt Kemp
2. Grady Sizemore
3. Alex Rios
4. Colby Rasmus (see semi-realistic)
5. Going with what we got

Crawford and Werth are not affordable. Markakis, Cruz, and D.Young aren't going anywhere with their teams trying to compete for next season. Probably ditto for Rasmus, although there have been rumblings of his departure being hastened. Still probably wouldn't get dealt to the Reds either way. I'm not sure the other names are more attractive than going with what we got (some combination of Gomes, Heisey, Francisco, Frazier, and/or Alonso.)
Rios? He makes a lot of money and a lot of his value comes from his defense in CF/RF which is two positions we already have filled.

I think Quentin would be a better target from the Sox. Dude has the potential to just mash.

Benihana
09-29-2010, 05:48 PM
Rios? He makes a lot of money and a lot of his value comes from his defense in CF/RF which is two positions we already have filled.

I think Quentin would be a better target from the Sox. Dude has the potential to just mash.

Good point. I didn't realize he is still owed $50MM through 2014.

"Cross him off, then!" :cool: (name that line)

hebroncougar
09-30-2010, 10:15 AM
I think after looking at some of the options, what I'd consider doing is waiting for the Yanks to sign Crawford, then try and get Gardner for next to nothing. Bat him leadoff next year, with his OBP, and defense, I think you can get some pretty good value out of that.

OesterPoster
09-30-2010, 10:21 AM
Good point. I didn't realize he is still owed $50MM through 2014.

"Cross him off, then!" :cool: (name that line)

And if we're talking about mucho $$$$, then we might as well trade for Torii Hunter and put him in left field. I think he's "only" owed about 18 mill in 2011.

If they're going all-in for Crawford, then maybe they need to free up some money.

Ghosts of 1990
09-30-2010, 10:27 AM
In terms of Kemp, what kind of mega package are we giving up to get him? I keep hearing insinuations his stock has dropped in the eyes of the LA brass though never confirmed by them.

Would anyone here involve Mike Leake as a piece for Kemp?

membengal
09-30-2010, 10:45 AM
I floated a Leake for Kemp thought about ten posts before yours, Ghosts. So if I qualify as "anybody", then, yes.

camisadelgolf
09-30-2010, 11:11 AM
Carl Crawford has the distinction of being the only representative for the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays to homer in an All-Star game. Can anyone guess who was pitching at the time?

Ghosts of 1990
09-30-2010, 11:30 AM
I floated a Leake for Kemp thought about ten posts before yours, Ghosts. So if I qualify as "anybody", then, yes.

Sorry about that. I must have missed it. But I'm thinking Leake and another upper tier prospect for Kemp could work.

bigredmachine1976
09-30-2010, 11:44 AM
Chris Heisey or Todd Fraizer

membengal
09-30-2010, 11:46 AM
Sorry about that. I must have missed it. But I'm thinking Leake and another upper tier prospect for Kemp could work.

Probably. The initial thought I tossed out was Leake and Alonso for Kemp. And then back-pedaled wondering if that was too much.

Leake and Frazier, like just mentioned, might work.

I still remain puzzled at how the Dodgers would value Kemp for a deal, and what Leake's trade value is.

RedsManRick
09-30-2010, 11:50 AM
In terms of Kemp, what kind of mega package are we giving up to get him? I keep hearing insinuations his stock has dropped in the eyes of the LA brass though never confirmed by them.

Would anyone here involve Mike Leake as a piece for Kemp?

I think we're looking at a good young bat and a useful arm. Maybe Alonso and Maloney?

Kemp is interesting. He's clearly not a CF, but has been around league average in the corners. Offensively, his peripherals this were all pretty much right in line with what he's done before. The Ks were up a bit, but not alarmingly so. The ISO was still in the 180 range. The big change was a drop in BABIP to closer to what we'd expect given his LD%, a reasonable .299. His first 3 years were .411, .361, .345. That explains the vast majority of his 2010 dropoff.

Upon reflection, I'm not sure I'd be targeting him. He's sort of a tweener in the Chris Heisey mold. He can do a little bit of everything for you, but he's not a standout. If we're going to trade some real assets to add somebody, I'd rather it be somebody more impactful.

I think my top reasonable target is Jacoby Ellsbury. The Red Sox almost have to trade him at this point given what went down this year. And doing so would free up LF for a run at Crawford. Swap Alonso and change for him and they can play Alonso at 1B, slide Youk over to 3B.

bigredmachine1976
09-30-2010, 11:51 AM
Don't think we'll trade any of our major league ready starting pitchers. It's been years since we had enough to fill the rotation. We're going into the playoffs and our rotation is not set. With all the question marks I just think we'll hold on to as many of them as we can. Whcih means we'll go with what we've got. I bet Yonder Alnozo works hard on his speed and of defense this off season.

membengal
09-30-2010, 11:55 AM
RMR, I love your stuff, but I can't buy slotting Matt Kemp into a class of outfielders that also would contain Chris Heisey. If I thought Heisey could be Kemp, I would be pushing for Heisey in LF for the Reds next year. Kemp's really good, and I think can be a lot better. I suspect his poorer 2010 is masking how good he can be.

RedsManRick
09-30-2010, 12:19 PM
RMR, I love your stuff, but I can't buy slotting Matt Kemp into a class of outfielders that also would contain Chris Heisey. If I thought Heisey could be Kemp, I would be pushing for Heisey in LF for the Reds next year. Kemp's really good, and I think can be a lot better. I suspect his poorer 2010 is masking how good he can be.

Don't get me wrong, I don't believe Heisey is as good as Kemp. Kemp is more talented. But I do think the composition of their skill sets is similar.

Tell me which guy is which:


Age AVG OBP SLG ISO BB% K% LD% BABIP
A 25 .256 .329 .441 .185 7.3 28.7 20.1 .316
B 25 .248 .308 .438 .189 7.9 28.4 20.4 .299

Was either of those lines a fluke?

I don't think Kemp is the player we think he is. We look back at his first few years, see a .900 OPS at age 23 and assume he's on the star track. But he had a ridiculous .411 BABIP. That's something like 20% more hits than he "deserved", particularly given a pedestrian LD%. An the last two years he's been north of .350. I don't care how well you square up the ball, a .350+ BABIP is unsustainable without a lot of infield hits. I'll say the same thing about Votto's chances of repeating his 2010.

I certainly wouldn't object to having Kemp in LF. But let's not kid ourselves, he's not a .900 OPS monster waiting to bust out again. I think we're looking at something like .275/.340/.475 with slightly above average defense in LF. That's a ~3 win player. He's not going to return to his previous level of production without some major improvement in his peripherals. I'd want a scout to tell me how likely that sort of improvement in his eye and contact rate is before suggesting he bounces back to that 4+ win level. Is that production trading for? Well, it's an upgrade over what we've got, certainly. But it depends on the price and the alternatives.

I'd rather get Ellsbury, a guy who plays excellent defense, fills a need in the structure of the lineup (leadoff) and would probably be cheaper to acquire than Kemp. The overall production is about the same, but I like the composition much better.

membengal
09-30-2010, 12:35 PM
I sure wouldn't mind Ellsbury obviously, but I am also thinking that dropping Kemp into GABP for 81 games as opposed to Chavez Ravine and surrounding him with Votto and Bruce and Rolen makes him an interesting target and a good bet to bump the OPS back to the .850 to .875 range.

camisadelgolf
09-30-2010, 12:39 PM
Don't get me wrong, I don't believe Heisey is as good as Kemp. Kemp is more talented. But I do think the composition of their skill sets is similar.

Tell me which guy is which:


Age AVG OBP SLG ISO BB% K% LD% BABIP
A 25 .256 .329 .441 .185 7.3 28.7 20.1 .316
B 25 .248 .308 .438 .189 7.9 28.4 20.4 .299

Was either of those lines a fluke?

I don't think Kemp is the player we think he is. We look back at his first few years, see a .900 OPS at age 23 and assume he's on the star track. But he had a ridiculous .411 BABIP. That's something like 20% more hits than he "deserved", particularly given a pedestrian LD%. An the last two years he's been north of .350. I don't care how well you square up the ball, a .350+ BABIP is unsustainable without a lot of infield hits. I'll say the same thing about Votto's chances of repeating his 2010.

I certainly wouldn't object to having Kemp in LF. But let's not kid ourselves, he's not a .900 OPS monster waiting to bust out again. I think we're looking at something like .275/.340/.475 with slightly above average defense in LF. That's a ~3 win player. He's not going to return to his previous level of production without some major improvement in his peripherals. I'd want a scout to tell me how likely that sort of improvement in his eye and contact rate is before suggesting he bounces back to that 4+ win level. Is that production trading for? Well, it's an upgrade over what we've got, certainly. But it depends on the price and the alternatives.

I'd rather get Ellsbury, a guy who plays excellent defense, fills a need in the structure of the lineup (leadoff) and would probably be cheaper to acquire than Kemp. The overall production is about the same, but I like the composition much better.
How much of a difference can be attributed to park factors? Obviously, it would likely help Heisey's numbers and hurt Kemp's.

TheNext44
09-30-2010, 12:42 PM
Something scares me about Kemp.

A lot scares me about him.

I love his talent, but here in LA, he has gotten a big reputation for lacking that desire to work on his game. Maybe Dusty could help him, but I would never trade a player with such strong baseball acumen like Leake for one with such questionable baseball acumen. Doesn't mean I wouldn't want Kemp, just not for Leake.

RedsManRick
09-30-2010, 12:44 PM
How much of a difference can be attributed to park factors? Obviously, it would likely help Heisey's numbers and hurt Kemp's.

Fair point, but I imagine that primarily impacts ISO. Kemp is a better hitter than Heisey -- I don't doubt that, but it's not at all unfair to suggest they are similar types of players. I think Kemp 2011 is as close to Heisey as he is 2009 Kemp.

bucksfan2
09-30-2010, 01:14 PM
A lot scares me about him.

I love his talent, but here in LA, he has gotten a big reputation for lacking that desire to work on his game. Maybe Dusty could help him, but I would never trade a player with such strong baseball acumen like Leake for one with such questionable baseball acumen. Doesn't mean I wouldn't want Kemp, just not for Leake.

There has been a great deal of dysfunction surrounding the LA clubhouse over the course of the past two seasons. Not only do you have the high profile divorce going on, you have the Manny(wood) disaster playing out with suspension, quitting, being traded, etc. From my perspective Kemp has become a little too Hollywood out in LA.

Kemps numbers this season are at a career low. Now would be the time I would pounce on him. I don't think a scenery change to the midwest (you really think Rihanna is going to follow Kemp to Cincy?) and getting out of the Dodger disaster will help Kemp. I am going to put a lot more faith in Kemp rebounding than Heisey taking a giant step forward next year.

Brutus
09-30-2010, 04:27 PM
I think we're looking at a good young bat and a useful arm. Maybe Alonso and Maloney?

Kemp is interesting. He's clearly not a CF, but has been around league average in the corners. Offensively, his peripherals this were all pretty much right in line with what he's done before. The Ks were up a bit, but not alarmingly so. The ISO was still in the 180 range. The big change was a drop in BABIP to closer to what we'd expect given his LD%, a reasonable .299. His first 3 years were .411, .361, .345. That explains the vast majority of his 2010 dropoff.

Upon reflection, I'm not sure I'd be targeting him. He's sort of a tweener in the Chris Heisey mold. He can do a little bit of everything for you, but he's not a standout. If we're going to trade some real assets to add somebody, I'd rather it be somebody more impactful.

I think my top reasonable target is Jacoby Ellsbury. The Red Sox almost have to trade him at this point given what went down this year. And doing so would free up LF for a run at Crawford. Swap Alonso and change for him and they can play Alonso at 1B, slide Youk over to 3B.

His BABIP wasn't completely a fluke. I read somewhere his xBABIP the last 3 years was nearly .350.

He has a lot of infield hits (check)
He has always had a low amount of infield flies (check)
He has slightly above average LD% (check)
He hits slightly more grounders than flies (check)

I really don't think his BABIP was the problem. In fact, this was the first year he didn't make it to double-digits in infield hits. Maybe that's something that's going to trend downward? I don't know. But to this point, his BABIP wasn't really that unlucky.

On the contrary, his K% went from 22% last year to 28% this year. That by over 3%, was his career high thus far. It's the strikeouts combined with a drop in BABIP that led to his low BA (and thereby OBP). If I were a betting man, I would anticipate (especially with a change of scenery) his numbers being back next year where we expect them.

corkedbat
10-01-2010, 03:48 PM
Depending on the state of his rehab, Sizemore was my favorite when i started this thread.

I think there's a very good chance they pretty much stand pat in LF over the offense and while that has fared pretty well this season, it worries me next season. I wonder if Gomes has another similar season in him and heisey (to me) is a 4th OF.

I want to see them build on this season and the most logical place to improve, IMO is LF. I'd just like to see a bat with more run-producing potential out there.

Rolen has far-exceded anything they could reasonably have expected coming into this season when you look at his track record the last two or three years. His power output has clearly dropped though as the season has worn on and several have commented on his problems catching up to pitches of late.

Playing this many games has worn on him for this season and you wonder if the toll might carry over to next. With his history of back issues, I don't feel comforatble going into next season counting on a full year of Rolen as the number two run-producer in the lineup. If he has a similar year - fine - nothing wrong with that, but I just don't feel that comfortable counting on he, gomes and the younger guys as the meat of the order with Votto and Bruce.

As it stands right now, we can forget about any kind of repeat next year if Rolen were to miss sigificant time due to injuries. I love Johnny Gomes, but don't want to count on him in the cleanup spot for the bulk of the season.

IMO, we have a corner spot (LF) that can stand an upgrade. that should be the number one priority this coming offseason. Maybe there isn't a fit out there, but I sure as heck hope Walt tries to fill the spot with an considerable upgrade.

hebroncougar
10-03-2010, 09:38 PM
Here are some more names to throw in there:

Johnny Damon
Magglio Ordonez

and Matt Murton...

mth123
10-03-2010, 11:28 PM
Here are some more names to throw in there:

Johnny Damon
Magglio Ordonez

and Matt Murton...

Angel Pagan, Matt Joyce and Nate McLouth. McLouth at $6.5 Million in 2011 might be pricey but he's coming off a bad year and maybe the Reds could swing a deal that moves a litlle salary and the Braves pay a bit. A McLouth/Heisey platoon might be interesting on offense and defense and provide some pop in the 6 hole with good defense. Seems as good a bet as Grady Sizemore.

Spitball
10-03-2010, 11:43 PM
I have never been a huge Austin Kearns fan, but I'd give him a shot if the price is right.

Scrap Irony
10-03-2010, 11:52 PM
Angel Pagan, Matt Joyce and Nate McLouth. McLouth at $6.5 Million in 2011 might be pricey but he's coming off a bad year and maybe the Reds could swing a deal that moves a litlle salary and the Braves pay a bit. A McLouth/Heisey platoon might be interesting on offense and defense and provide some pop in the 6 hole with good defense. Seems as good a bet as Grady Sizemore.

McLouth is an interesting choice. His defense would certainly be better.