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View Full Version : Remaining games, Who does the schedule favor: Reds or Cards?



redlegs2370
09-20-2010, 02:56 PM
Just looking at the remaining games and I think the Cardinals have a huge advantage with their remaining schedule. This in contrary to what a lot of people predicted when they said September schedule favored the Reds.

They start with the Fish today who have been desimated with injuries then they go to the Pirates (the only team the Reds have been able to beat in a series this month), they finish the week against the Cubs but now Colvin is hurt. They still play the Rockies but it is the last games of the season and if the Rockies are not in contention then they will probably not play their better players.

The Reds on the other hand start with a Brewer team that can flat hit and score runs, this is not good for the Reds because they have been scoring around 3 runs a game. Will not cut it against the Brewers. Then off to SD, where the Pads play well at home and once again not a place a lot of homeruns are hit and lately it seems the Reds are scoring via the HR ball or not scoring at all. They finish the year with the Astros and Brewers and we witnessed what the Astros pitchers did to the Reds this past weekend.

With that in mind I think advantage goes to the Cards. Now I know the Reds have a 6 game lead, but it is really 5 in the loss column and the Cards are playing against teams that they can sweep the series where the Reds are going to struggle to win the series. I think the Central title will not be decided until the last weekend. Hopefully it turns out better than 1999.

mckbearcat48
09-20-2010, 03:11 PM
The schedule favors the Reds because of a lack of total games left. The Reds have their destiny squarely in their hands. Also, the Cards have been terrible against bad teams and good against good ones. That Pirates series for STL will maybe be 2 wins for STL...Cincy has been drilling doormats all year, so beating MIL is not a big shock.

redlegs2370
09-20-2010, 03:18 PM
The schedule favors the Reds because of a lack of total games left. The Reds have their destiny squarely in their hands. Also, the Cards have been terrible against bad teams and good against good ones. That Pirates series for STL will maybe be 2 wins for STL...Cincy has been drilling doormats all year, so beating MIL is not a big shock.

True but that was when the Reds offense wasn't in a funk. In the majority of the games played this month the Reds have used 1 or 2 innings to score their runs off homeruns. I just think they are playing with fire and the teams that they have left have major talent (Braun, Fielder, Hart, Weeks, and Co.)

brm7675
09-20-2010, 03:27 PM
Right now moment and schedule are both on the Cards side. Right now I don't see the Reds winning more then 2 games left on this road trip. they then come home for 6 games vs. the stros/brewers which i see them maybe taking 3 tops. So 12 games left, i see the Reds going 5-7 over the final 12.

gmt
09-20-2010, 03:28 PM
Either team is capable of doing something really good or really bad. I don't think you can discount any possibility of the Cardinals playing better against the Pirates and Cubs anymore than you can say the Reds will continue to play their usual early season way against the Brewers.

That said, the Cardinals need a near complete win on out to have a "miraculous" chance to make the playoffs. Winning their final 14 games will give them 91 wins. It's possible I guess but not likely. That would mean the remaining 12 games by the Reds would need to be 7 - 5 for just a tie. That seems more reasonable to believe than a 14 - 0 run.

Even if the Reds lost their last 12 games, the Cardinals would need to finish 7 - 7 for a tie. Given recent events, 7 - 7 would be more much more likely than a 12 game dive.

Hustleman
09-20-2010, 03:30 PM
i'd say the cards, but they also have a bigger mountain to climb. they are also 4-6 in their last 10 games so they arent exactly heating up.

Hey Meat
09-20-2010, 04:57 PM
Right now moment and schedule are both on the Cards side. Right now I don't see the Reds winning more then 2 games left on this road trip. they then come home for 6 games vs. the stros/brewers which i see them maybe taking 3 tops. So 12 games left, i see the Reds going 5-7 over the final 12.
5-7 will still be good enough to get in unless the cardinals go like 12-2.

RedLegsToday
09-20-2010, 09:48 PM
You all keep forgetting that the Cards simply cannot beat mediocre/bad teams. Shut out 4-0 by the Fish today in the quickest game in Marlins history.

justincredible
09-20-2010, 10:50 PM
It favors the Reds, without question. The Reds have beat up on the bottom feeders all season long while the Cardinals have really struggled against them. The Magic Number is also only 7 (with the Cards loss, likely to be 6 if the Reds hold on). Playing the numbers game makes it nearly impossible for the Cardinals to catch up to the Reds. The Reds have 11 games left while the Cards have 13. Say the Reds hold on to win tonight (dropping the magic number to 6) but really suck it up the final 11 games and go 3-8. This means that the Cardinals must go 11-2 to TIE the division. Neither one of those scenarios is likely to happen.

DocRed
09-20-2010, 11:12 PM
Don't mean to derail the thread but we SHOULD be looking at our schedule compared to SF and SD...because unless we finish with a better record than the NL West winner then we will have to play Philly with a homefield disadvantage. IF we finish higher than the NL West winner then we will have homefield advantage against the wildcard(most likely Atlanta). The key for me is to avoid Philly at Philly in the first round.

IMO after tonight's win the pennant race is effectively over.

CrosleyField
09-21-2010, 07:27 AM
Don't mean to derail the thread but we SHOULD be looking at our schedule compared to SF and SD...because unless we finish with a better record than the NL West winner then we will have to play Philly with a homefield disadvantage. IF we finish higher than the NL West winner then we will have homefield advantage against the wildcard(most likely Atlanta). The key for me is to avoid Philly at Philly in the first round.

IMO after tonight's win the pennant race is effectively over.

Very true. It would take catastrophic events for the Cards to catch the Reds at this point. We need to win some games to get ahead of the West winner.

texasdave
09-21-2010, 07:42 AM
San Francisco: Road 6 Home 6
Road - Cubs (winners of six straight) 3 Colorado 3
Home - Arizona 3 San Diego 3

San Diego: Road 6 Home 7
Road - Los Angeles 3 San Francisco 3
Home - Cubs (see above) 4 Cincinnati 3

Colorado: Road 7 Home 6
Road - Arizona 3 St. Louis 4
Home - San Francisco 3 Los Angeles 3

Vottomatic
09-21-2010, 08:38 AM
If Dusty would take Phillips out of leadoff, I think several guys are starting to hit again.

11 games left for the Reds............7 game Central lead..........????? It would be a meltdown of epic proportions at this point if the Reds didn't win the division.

Mr Larkin
09-21-2010, 10:56 AM
The beginning of this thread is pretty senseless. If the Reds blow this lead it would be incredible. The Cards would have to go on a run like they have not shown all season and the Reds would have to lose virtually every game. Very needless.

If the Reds can manage to get home field against Atlanta in the first round, they have a legit shot at the WS - why are we questioning if we will win our division?