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View Full Version : Tulo vs. Votto for MVP?



RedEye
09-22-2010, 12:56 PM
After a brief appearance by Carlos Gonzalez, it seems like the race for MVP is going to come down to Votto and Tulowitzki. Although I think Votto has had a more consistent season overall (Tulo missed some time due to injury and really didn't turn it on until the last few weeks), I think there is an argument for the Rockies SS to win, given the position he plays and what he has meant to Colorado's late-season surge toward the playoffs. Obviously, I'd love the Reds 1B to be the MVP--but I'm curious about what people think. Who is more deserving? How would you measure "deserving"?

Cedric
09-22-2010, 12:59 PM
After a brief appearance by Carlos Gonzalez, it seems like the race for MVP is going to come down to Votto and Tulowitzki. Although I think Votto has had a more consistent season overall (Tulo missed some time due to injury and really didn't turn it on until the last few weeks), I think there is an argument for the Rockies SS to win, given the position he plays and what he has meant to Colorado's late-season surge toward the playoffs. Obviously, I'd love the Reds 1B to be the MVP--but I'm curious about what people think. Who is more deserving? How would you measure "deserving"?

Why would a "surge" outweigh the consistent performer who led his team to the playoffs? Hopefully voters have more vision than that.

I think Votto has the award on near lock down.

oneupper
09-22-2010, 01:02 PM
Votto may have alienated the Chicago and St Louis writers, which could cost him the award.

RedEye
09-22-2010, 01:04 PM
Why would a "surge" outweigh the consistent performer who led his team to the playoffs? Hopefully voters have more vision than that.

I think Votto has the award on near lock down.

I would think a surge could put a player over the top in the right situation. I'm not saying I agree with those who back Tulo, but it is an award for "valuable"--which is a highly subjective quality. Tulo has, no doubt, been extremely valuable to the Rocks, especially as a smooth-fielding SS and power hitter. If they do make the playoffs, I think he'll get some votes--and maybe even challenge Joey for the award.

dougdirt
09-22-2010, 01:18 PM
I have to chime in and defend Tulo for a minute here....

People keep talking about a 'surge' and 'one great month', like he wasn't a gold glove caliber shortstop with an .890 OPS from April-August.

Votto is still the MVP, but people need to back off the Tulo has only been good for one month stuff.

Roy Tucker
09-22-2010, 01:22 PM
I think if Tulo would have played an entire season, it would be a dead heat between him and Votto. Particularly if the Rockies win the West.

But Tulo missed a month+ of the season and that depressed his counting stats. Which, like it or not, matters a lot in the voters eyes.

Votto will win in a landslide. The guy has had a magnificent season on a division winning team (fingers crossed).

RichRed
09-22-2010, 01:23 PM
Love Tulowitzki as a player but I don't think you can give the MVP to a guy who's missed a quarter of his team's games.

I'm going with the homer pick: Votto.

cumberlandreds
09-22-2010, 01:26 PM
If the Rocks make the playoffs I think Tulo will get it. The voters tend to vote on the hot player with the hot team at the end of the season. Miguel Tejada won an MVP with a very hot last six weeks or so a few years back.
Votto should get it. He's been consistently very good all season and his team will be in the playoffs.

RedsBaron
09-22-2010, 01:38 PM
Tulo and Vott's home and away splits are interesting, at least to me.
At home, Tulo has hit .341 with a .407 OBP and .635 SLG, with 14 HR and 54 RBI in 211 at bats. Away, Tulo has a line of .308/.374/.542 with 12 HR and 35 RBI in 214 at bats. As you would expect, Tulo's numbers are highly inflated by playing in Denver (although his stats are still good, for a shortstop, on the road).
Vott has home numbers of .300/.397/.569 with 18 HR and 54 RBI in 253 at bats. Votto is a beast on the road: .344/.446/.623 with 17 HR and 52 RBI in 273 at bats.
Votto is clearly the better hitter and hasn't missed as much of the season. Tulo would rank ahead of Votto only if you give him significant extra credit for being a shortstop IMO.

_Sir_Charles_
09-22-2010, 01:44 PM
Sorry, but I'm just not buying the Tulo argument for the MVP. He simply missed too much of the year. Right now it's still a 3 man race between Votto, Pujols & Gonzales. With the Cards fading fast, so are Albert's chances. Votto's simply GOT to be leading this thing.

Tulowitzki is 13th in HR's, 14th in RBI's, 33rd in 2b's, 41st in hits, 2nd in BA, 6th in OBP, 3rd in SLG and 4th in OPS.

While Votto is 2nd in HR's, 3rd in RBI's, 13th in 2b's, 6th in hits, 3rd in BA, 1st in OBP, 2nd in SLG, and 1st in OPS.

Sorry, Tulo's not even CLOSE at this point. Now if someone tosses in the SS argument...give him the Gold Glove...not the MVP. Technically the MVP should go to the most VALUABLE player, but it goes to the best player in the league in reality. But truth be told, it's Votto on both counts.

RedsManRick
09-22-2010, 01:56 PM
Given two guys of roughly equal value, I think it comes down to two things:
1) What guy has fewer warts on his resume'?
2) What's the dominant storyline?

For #1, Votto is wart free, Tulo missed a BIG chunk of time. Tulo's team might miss the playoffs.
For #2, Votto as MVP has been the story for the last 2 months. Tulo is going to have to continue to have an insane finish for his MVP story to get more momentum.

Ghosts of 1990
09-22-2010, 02:04 PM
Here are the odds listed up to the minute at a sports book I use.... Votto is the runaway favorite. He's going to win it, Vegas says. Starting to look like the only other possibility would be the rest of the NL field. Interesting that Brandon Phillips is listed.

Adrian Gonzalez
+1200

Albert Pujols
+300

Andre Ethier
+3000

Brandon Phillips
+3000

David Wright
+3000

Joey Votto
-400

Ryan Zimmerman
+2500

Ubaldo Jimenez
+5000

xz Field (Any Other Player)
+200

mbgrayson
09-22-2010, 02:28 PM
Also, I can see Tulo and CarGo splitting some Rockies friendly votes, just like Carpenter and Wainwright did last year for Cy Young.

I think Joey has it all but locked up....

Screwball
09-22-2010, 04:08 PM
I'd like to hear Brandon Phillips' thoughts on the matter.

RedEye
09-23-2010, 12:38 AM
FWIW, Dave Cameron also seems to think that Tulo could be the MVP. He even makes the argument (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/troy-tulowitzki-nl-mvp/) that he should be the choice:


Even with Votto holding a +1 win advantage by WAR, I still think a vote for Tulowitzki is justifiable. WAR is more blunt hammer than precise chisel, so while it does a great job at telling you whether a player is good or bad, it is not designed to be used to separate out small differences among players having similar seasons. Votto’s +7.0 WAR isn’t so much better than Tulowitzki’s +6.1 WAR that we should definitely say that Votto has been more valuable. The best interpretation of those two numbers is that both have been fantastic, and that there’s room for discussion about which one has been better.

The Operator
09-23-2010, 12:43 AM
Votto may have alienated the Chicago and St Louis writers, which could cost him the award.I know of the Chicago incident, but what did Votto do/say that might have cost him St. Louis votes - other than being on the same team as BP?

marcshoe
09-23-2010, 03:20 AM
...then there's the dreaded anti-Canadian vote... ;)

MattyHo4Life
09-23-2010, 07:36 AM
I know of the Chicago incident, but what did Votto do/say that might have cost him St. Louis votes - other than being on the same team as BP?

I was wondering that myself. I don't know of any St. Louis bias against Votto. St. Louis writers would probably still vote Pujols, but that is the only thing I can see going against Votto in St. Louis.

PuffyPig
09-23-2010, 08:14 AM
I was wondering that myself. I don't know of any St. Louis bias against Votto. St. Louis writers would probably still vote Pujols, but that is the only thing I can see going against Votto in St. Louis.

I can't see why anyone would vote for Pujols.

Pujols is a great player, but Votto has been consistently better all season, and has lead the Reds to a Central Division crown.

If the Cards were beating the Reds, Pujols would be a viable option. Probably the front runner.

But they aren't and I can't see Pujols deserving any first place votes.

oneupper
09-23-2010, 09:30 AM
I know of the Chicago incident, but what did Votto do/say that might have cost him St. Louis votes - other than being on the same team as BP?

That would be it. But it takes very little to sway these elections.

Ted Williams lost a few MVPs with some writers leaving him entirely off the ballot.

Chip R
09-23-2010, 09:30 AM
Votto may have alienated the Chicago and St Louis writers, which could cost him the award.


I'm not so sure about that. These are writers we're talking about so they have their own agenda. If Votto was good to them personally, they will be good to him. The Chicago writers probably love them because he gave them some material to write with with his comments at the ASG. The StL writers may vote for Pujols to stay on his good side but I don't think they would vot for him because of any bad feelings towards Votto or the Reds.

MattyHo4Life
09-23-2010, 10:35 AM
I can't see why anyone would vote for Pujols.

Pujols is a great player, but Votto has been consistently better all season, and has lead the Reds to a Central Division crown.

If the Cards were beating the Reds, Pujols would be a viable option. Probably the front runner.

But they aren't and I can't see Pujols deserving any first place votes.

Well...I didn't say he deserved it. I was just trying to guess why Votto would lose votes from St. Louis writers. I don't see any other reason than that they will vote for Pujols.

Jpup
09-23-2010, 10:40 AM
I'd like to hear Brandon Phillips' thoughts on the matter.


my guess is that Phillips thinks he should win. My first half MVP was Rolen, but Votto almost has to win now.

Johnny Footstool
09-23-2010, 11:00 AM
Also, I can see Tulo and CarGo splitting some Rockies friendly votes, just like Carpenter and Wainwright did last year for Cy Young.

I think Joey has it all but locked up....

Agree. How can Tulo be the most valuable player if he's got a teammate who is outhitting him?

Johnny Footstool
09-23-2010, 11:01 AM
Well...I didn't say he deserved it. I was just trying to guess why Votto would lose votes from St. Louis writers. I don't see any other reason than that they will vote for Pujols.

A lot of Cardinals fans are very disillusioned with the team this year. I imagine some writers feel the same way. How is Pujols the MVP if his team played with no heart all season?

Caveat Emperor
09-23-2010, 11:06 AM
If it's a dead heat, I see Votto getting the clear benefit of the doubt from the writers because:

1.) He's been a consistent performer all season with no major gaps in production or playing time.
2.) His team has risen from the dead to be competitive for the first time in 10 years and will be playing post-season baseball.
3.) While GABP is a bandbox, it doesn't have nearly the "Yeah but..." reputation for stats that Coors Field does.

Interestingly, although I'd never actively root against a Reds player, Votto NOT winning MVP has more than a few benefits -- namely, him playing with an even bigger chip on his shoulder going forward and possibly reduced costs in future contract negotiations.

dougdirt
09-23-2010, 11:10 AM
Agree. How can Tulo be the most valuable player if he's got a teammate who is outhitting him?

Because its the MVP, not the Most valuable Hitter? Tulo plays a much more defensive friendly position than Carlos Gonzalez does.

Chip R
09-23-2010, 12:33 PM
The Reds PR department needs to be front and center in publicizing stats about Voto like how well he does away from GABP and just anything that would showcase him to writers who don't necessarily see the Reds on a regular basis.

Johnny Footstool
09-23-2010, 12:37 PM
Because its the MVP, not the Most valuable Hitter? Tulo plays a much more defensive friendly position than Carlos Gonzalez does.

MVP usually goes to the best hitter (Barry Larkin's 1995 award being the glaring exception). Tulo doesn't have to bear the offensive load that Votto does.

kaldaniels
09-24-2010, 06:47 PM
To quote Keyser Soze...And just like that (poof), Tulo's chance for MVP is gone.

The Operator
09-24-2010, 06:53 PM
To quote Keyser Soze...And just like that (poof), Tulo's chance for MVP is gone.Did something big happen that I missed? :confused:

kaldaniels
09-24-2010, 08:24 PM
Did something big happen that I missed? :confused:

Nope, his hot streak is over and the Rockies have faded.

vaticanplum
09-27-2010, 03:51 PM
Jerry Crasnick thinks Votto is a shoo-in:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=5621726

He also thinks it's Hamilton's to lose in the AL, which I sort of agree with. So the Reds would have a hand in both, in a way. Who is this team?