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camisadelgolf
09-23-2010, 10:37 AM
It's flying a bit under the radar, but Laynce Nix is having a very strong year. When he signed as a minor league free agent before the 2009 season, I don't think too many people saw him as much more than minor league depth. However, he made the team out of spring training and proceeded to have a solid year, posting an OPS+ of 98 while providing good defense. He earned just $630,000, but despite his success, he was non-tendered. Apparently there were still a lot of doubters out there, which is understandable when you consider his track record, and because of that, he couldn't find a Major League contract as a free agent. Fortunately for the Reds, they were able to retain him on another minor league contract.

Why do I say 'fortunately'? Well, he has improved quite a bit on his 2009 performance. At the moment, his OPS+ stands at 114, and by every defensive metric I've seen, his defense has improved as well.

Thanks to arbitration, there's no doubt that he'd get a raise on whatever he's earning this year. I don't know how much that is, but I'd imagine it's somewhere between $600k and $1M.

Keeping all that in mind, would you tender him a contract for 2011? Personally, I'm all for it. Here's why:
1.) The free agent options aren't all that impressive.
2.) Although he'll likely get a big raise, it shouldn't be too big thanks to his overall career numbers.
3.) The Reds' outfield depth is thin. There's Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, Chris Heisey, and maybe Jonny Gomes.

For reference, here are some of his numbers:

AS A RED
split BA OBP SLG OPS
vs. RHP .262 .314 .486 .800
vs. LHP .208 .255 .333 .588
total .256 .308 .470 .779

CAREER
split BA OBP SLG OPS
vs. RHP .250 .292 .446 .738
vs. LHP .192 .232 .285 .517
total .243 .285 .425 .710

So what do you think? Would you offer arbitration?

bucksfan2
09-23-2010, 10:41 AM
Treat him the same way you did last year. Let him go out and seek a major league contract. If no one offers him one bring him back on a minor league contract knowing that he is the odds on favorite to be the 5th OF.

Jpup
09-23-2010, 10:42 AM
He's worth a minimum contract IMO. More than that is probably too much. There are other guys out there, but I don't mind Nix.

camisadelgolf
09-23-2010, 10:45 AM
He's worth a minimum contract IMO. More than that is probably too much. There are other guys out there, but I don't mind Nix.
Who are the other guys that could produce at a lesser cost?

fearofpopvol1
09-23-2010, 01:17 PM
Who are the other guys that could produce at a lesser cost?

A homegrown one...Danny Dorn.

Pass for me. Call up Dorn.

camisadelgolf
09-23-2010, 01:27 PM
A homegrown one...Danny Dorn.

Pass for me. Call up Dorn.
And when he fails? What then?

Chip R
09-23-2010, 01:31 PM
And when he fails? What then?


Dorn, fail?! You blaspheme.

Will M
09-23-2010, 01:56 PM
if all he will get is $600K-$1M then i am all for it.
1.0 WAR in 2009
1.4 WAR in 2010
He's a solid bench outfielder who knows his role.

IMO a big reason the Reds are winning in 2010 is that their core bench guys (Nix, Heisey, Hanigan, Cairo & Janish) have all been solid. Their OPS+ stats range between 100 & 115 and all play solid to excellent defense. This is a HUGE upgrade from the recent days of whipping boys who shall remain nameless.

camisadelgolf
09-23-2010, 02:05 PM
Jolbert Cabrera
Norris Hopper
Jason Ellison
Buck Coats
Todd Hollandsworth
Quinton McCracken

RedsManRick
09-23-2010, 02:14 PM
He's a useful player, but all he's doing right now is taking a roster spot from somebody with greater potential and a brighter future. We have better alternatives.

camisadelgolf
09-23-2010, 02:22 PM
He's a useful player, but all he's doing right now is taking a roster spot from somebody with greater potential and a brighter future. We have better alternatives.
Who are they?

Sea Ray
09-23-2010, 02:23 PM
You sure don't offer him arbitration, nor do you occupy a spot on the 40 man roster for him until after the Rule 5 draft.

marcshoe
09-23-2010, 02:29 PM
And when he fails? What then?

And I hate to say this, but there's a good chance that Dorn won't come up and immediately produce as well as Nix has. It took me a while to get to this point, but Nix is a solid bench guy and, as Will pointed out, putting together a good, major league bench has been a part of putting together a contending team. If you want to see how this aspect has changed, just look at your (camisa's) list of bench players of the past. Yes, Walt knows how to construct a team.

Good thread.

bucksfan2
09-23-2010, 02:50 PM
He's a useful player, but all he's doing right now is taking a roster spot from somebody with greater potential and a brighter future. We have better alternatives.

Nix is somewhat of a known commodity and has has been a nice player for the Reds during his tenure. The issue becomes is a 5th OF type worth $1M/year? The Reds don't have a known commodity right now that could guarantee them the same level of production. However they have several players who have a much higher upside and its probably worth a gamble. Could Frazier, Sapplet, or even Heisey step in produce at a Nix type level next season? Could they out produce Nix? I am hopeful that the Reds address the LF spot in this upcoming off season. Gomes as the every day starter in LF isn't the answer but would be a nice addition to the bench. If it were up to me I would roll the dice that the Reds could replace Nix production with an in house option and use the extra cash elsewhere.

VR
09-23-2010, 02:58 PM
I like the role he fills when healthy with this club.

Jpup
09-23-2010, 03:02 PM
I like the role he fills when healthy with this club.

I do too, but next year is a different team. I fully expect the Reds to do something else in left field next season. Maybe there is a spot for him, but I wouldn't count on it.

bucksfan2
09-23-2010, 03:05 PM
I like the role he fills when healthy with this club.

Nix seems like a guy who is injury prone. Just sayin.

camisadelgolf
09-23-2010, 03:07 PM
I don't really want to pick up Gomes' option, but if he's used properly, you could have a very good outfield that costs less than $5M:
Jay Bruce - $450k - very good offense and Gold Glove caliber defense
Drew Stubbs - $450k - solid offense and Gold Glove caliber defense
Chris Heisey - $400 - solid offense and very good defense
Laynce Nix vs. RHP - $1.2M - solid offense (.800 OPS) + very good defense
Jonny Gomes vs. LHP - $1.8M - .880 OPS + poor defense

If Nix or Gomes gets hurt, call up Todd Frazier. If Stubbs or Heisey gets hurt, call up Dave Sappelt. Nix and Gomes might be overpaid, but they'd be overpaid by just a little, and the Reds can afford it in 2011.

LincolnparkRed
09-23-2010, 03:18 PM
Quick question about Dorn? Was he unprotected last year for rule 5? I can't recall, but it always seems like every team has a AAAA guy that their fans want to come up and play outfield. With all the injuries this month and the willie bloomquist deal, I think the window is closing for the reds and Dorn

fearofpopvol1
09-23-2010, 03:36 PM
And when he fails? What then?

Why should we assume he'll fail? What in his history suggests that he will fail?

Brutus
09-23-2010, 03:38 PM
Quick question about Dorn? Was he unprotected last year for rule 5? I can't recall, but it always seems like every team has a AAAA guy that their fans want to come up and play outfield. With all the injuries this month and the willie bloomquist deal, I think the window is closing for the reds and Dorn

Yes he was.

reds44
09-23-2010, 03:39 PM
He plays good defense when he is in at all three positions and has a power bat, you can do a lot worse for a 5th OFer.

I don't want another platoon in LF, but if we acquire an actual LFer I'm all for having Heisey and Nix as the reserve OFers next year.

camisadelgolf
09-23-2010, 03:46 PM
Why should we assume he'll fail? What in his history suggests that he will fail?
I'm not saying it should necessary be assumed--none of his numbers suggest that he will fail. But why should we assume that he won't?

fearofpopvol1
09-23-2010, 03:58 PM
I'm not saying it should necessary be assumed--none of his numbers suggest that he will fail. But why should we assume that he won't?

I think because he has had good success at every level he has played at. A career minor league OPS of almost .900 who crushes RHP? Why not go with the younger guy who is entering his prime?

marcshoe
09-23-2010, 03:58 PM
Why should we assume he'll fail? What in his history suggests that he will fail?

Not assuming he'll fail, but with the Reds, who seem to be doing a very good job evaluating talent right now, showing no confidence in him, this seems a realistic possibility.

I hope he succeeds, but I wouldn't count on it.

camisadelgolf
09-23-2010, 04:26 PM
I think because he has had good success at every level he has played at. A career minor league OPS of almost .900 who crushes RHP? Why not go with the younger guy who is entering his prime?
Because he's probably another Val Pascucci, Mike Hessman, Kevin Barker, Bryan Myrow, Jeff Fiorentino, Todd Linden, Steven Pearce, Mike Restovich, Jeff Bailey, Brian Buscher, Justin Ruggiano, etc.

Tons of players can look like kings in AAA and fools in MLB. It's yet to be seen what Dorn is, but scouts don't think too highly of him, and to count on him as automatic production is foolish.

fearofpopvol1
09-24-2010, 01:04 AM
Because he's probably another Val Pascucci, Mike Hessman, Kevin Barker, Bryan Myrow, Jeff Fiorentino, Todd Linden, Steven Pearce, Mike Restovich, Jeff Bailey, Brian Buscher, Justin Ruggiano, etc.

Tons of players can look like kings in AAA and fools in MLB. It's yet to be seen what Dorn is, but scouts don't think too highly of him, and to count on him as automatic production is foolish.

How do we know if Dorn will or won't be one of those guys without giving him a chance? Hasn't he earned a chance at this point? It's not like his numbers have slid. He's been consistent at every stop.

For the record, Nix has pretty unimpressive career numbers. In fact, Nix's career OPS in the majors is .710 with almost 1500 PAs. Do you believe Dorn will OPS under .710, as a platoon player against RHP?

Last year, Nix was -3.5 with the bat, but was very solid with the glove at +5.8. This year, Nix has managed to be better with the glove (+6.9) and the bat (+1.8)...so I think it's fair to assume that he has a career year, as this has been by far his best WAR number for a season, which is still only 1.4. Given Nix's age and career splits, the odds of him repeating those numbers aren't likely.

Ron Madden
09-24-2010, 03:23 AM
I don't know if the Reds will bring Nix back or not.

However, I do have a feeling that if Gomes' option is not renewd Thom Brennamen will scratch Walt's eyes out.

Captain Hook
09-24-2010, 03:27 AM
I like Nix.I say we should keep him simply because he looks like he could beat everyone else up.

I do think that he is useful filling in when injuries pop up and is a nice bat of the bench that can stay in the game and play good defense.If an upgrade in LF is brought for 2011 I'd rather have Nix on the bench then Gomes.Probably makes more sense if the other backup is going to be a righty like Heisey is.

_Sir_Charles_
09-24-2010, 08:11 AM
I'm not going to assume Dorn to succeed or fail. But take this into account. Playing every day is COMPLETELY different from being a bench player/pinch hitter. And if we do bring up Dorn, that's what his role would be. Lots of guys fail to make the transition to a pinch hitter. From what I've heard, his defense is mediocre at best, so he's not going to be inserted regularly as a defensive substitution. That leaves a strict platoon & pinch hitter. Irregular/sporadic playing time can really hurt a players' production. Just sayin.

Nix, however, has proven he can at least provide average production in that role. I bring him back. It'll be a modest contract, so if he does end up struggling...replacing him won't be a huge issue. And we've still got Dorn there as an option. But for now, I stick with Laynce.

camisadelgolf
09-24-2010, 08:58 AM
How do we know if Dorn will or won't be one of those guys without giving him a chance? Hasn't he earned a chance at this point? It's not like his numbers have slid. He's been consistent at every stop.

For the record, Nix has pretty unimpressive career numbers. In fact, Nix's career OPS in the majors is .710 with almost 1500 PAs. Do you believe Dorn will OPS under .710, as a platoon player against RHP?

Last year, Nix was -3.5 with the bat, but was very solid with the glove at +5.8. This year, Nix has managed to be better with the glove (+6.9) and the bat (+1.8)...so I think it's fair to assume that he has a career year, as this has been by far his best WAR number for a season, which is still only 1.4. Given Nix's age and career splits, the odds of him repeating those numbers aren't likely.
First of all, sometimes you know that a player doesn't have what it takes to succeed in the majors no matter how well he performs in AAA. I could come up with several examples of that.

Second of all, I'm not saying he shouldn't be given a chance. He's definitely earned a shot. But what I am saying is that it would be foolish to count on him as a replacement for Nix.

I'll grant you that Nix may be having a career year, but I think it's worth noting that he has looked like a completely different ball player since coming to the Reds. His numbers before he came to Cincinnati drag everything down drastically, and I don't think it's fair to expect him to perform anything close to that next year. Danny Dorn, on the other hand, is a complete wild card, and it would be very fortunate if he performed like Nix has, but unfortunately, his lack of defense limits him to pretty much only a pinch-hitting role at best.

Redhook
09-24-2010, 09:11 AM
I voted yes. I like Nix.

RedsManRick
09-24-2010, 09:36 AM
I find it interesting that we want to talk down our minor leaguers because they haven't proven anything, but we think that the 30 year old who just had a career year in 174 PA w/ a .356 BABIP is completely reliable. All players carry some degree of variability and Nix is hardly "proven".

Nix isn't a bad player per se'. He's got some pop and can play good defense. But he's not going to be anything more than that. Hesiey can play that role off the bench -- the good defender who won't embarrass himself an the plate. -- we don't need two of 'em. We could use somebody who can be legitimately dangerous. Maybe that's Dorn. Maybe not. But it's not Nix.

marcshoe
09-24-2010, 09:40 AM
fearofpop, you're giving Nix's overall numbers, then comparing them to Dorn's possible numbers against righthanders. Wouldn't it be more instructive in this comparison to at least use Nix's numbers against righthanders as well? With the Reds, his OPS in that case is .800. Even if you look at his career numbers against right handed pitching, they are a bit higher than the numbers you've given, as camisa has shown.

camisadelgolf
09-24-2010, 09:43 AM
I find it interesting that we want to talk down our minor leaguers because they haven't proven anything, but we think that the 30 year old who just had a career year in 174 PA w/ a .356 BABIP is completely reliable. All players carry some degree of variability and Nix is hardly "proven".

Nix isn't a bad player per se'. He's got some pop and can play good defense. But he's not going to be anything more than that. Hesiey can play that role off the bench -- the good defender who won't embarrass himself an the plate. -- we don't need two of 'em. We could use somebody who can be legitimately dangerous. Maybe that's Dorn. Maybe not. But it's not Nix.
The Reds already have Bruce, Stubbs, and Heisey. Nix and Gomes are the two maybes. If Gomes stays, who takes Nix' place? And if Gomes is gone, who takes over for Nix AND Gomes?

_Sir_Charles_
09-24-2010, 10:12 AM
The Reds already have Bruce, Stubbs, and Heisey. Nix and Gomes are the two maybes. If Gomes stays, who takes Nix' place? And if Gomes is gone, who takes over for Nix AND Gomes?

Sorry, but I'd have to place Heisey in the "maybe" column as well. He's shown me little to nothing since coming up (apart from some exciting PH'ing appearances)

camisadelgolf
09-24-2010, 10:24 AM
Sorry, but I'd have to place Heisey in the "maybe" column as well. He's shown me little to nothing since coming up (apart from some exciting PH'ing appearances)
That's understandable, but I wanted to give RMR the benefit of the doubt. I think replacing Nix won't be as easy as many people think.

edabbs44
09-24-2010, 10:25 AM
Sorry, but I'd have to place Heisey in the "maybe" column as well. He's shown me little to nothing since coming up (apart from some exciting PH'ing appearances)

Heisey, at this stage, is maybe a maybe.

Kc61
09-24-2010, 10:50 AM
I fully expect Nix to be back with the Reds next year. The team needs lefty hitting off the bench. He plays good defense and can handle all outfield positions.

The only way he won't be back IMO is due to injury, and I doubt his current injury is that serious.

I also expect Gomes to be back next season. His option is pretty cheap for a guy with 84 RBI and I think Walt will exercise it. If the Reds acquire a major left fielder, I still think they exercise the Gomes option and use him as a reserve or trade him.

Danny Dorn has never made the forty man roster. It does not seem to me that the Reds consider him a viable option, perhaps because of defense. Not endorsing this view, just doesn't seem like the Reds view him as a keeper.

As for Heisey, he's versatile enough but he's hitting .247 with a .743 OPS. He's struck out 54 times in 186 official at bats. Reds may keep him as a reserve, but I don't think he's cracking the starting outfield just now.

RedsManRick
09-24-2010, 12:32 PM
The Reds already have Bruce, Stubbs, and Heisey. Nix and Gomes are the two maybes. If Gomes stays, who takes Nix' place? And if Gomes is gone, who takes over for Nix AND Gomes?

I look at it like this: We carry 5 OF. For the starters, LF/CF/RF, I just want the guys who produce the most overall value. And from my perspective, 2.0+ WAR is what gets you in the door for a commitment as an every day player. I want either a guarantee of that production or the promise of significantly more production to make the risk worthwhile. What I absolute do not want is to give an everyday job to a player who's skill set fundamentally caps his production at a mediocre level.

On the bench, I want one guy who can play solid defense anywhere in the OF without completely embarrassing himself at the plate (the 4th OF) and one guy who's a legitimate threat at the plate, but whose glove is likely the reason he's not starting everyday (the 5th OF/PH) -- hopefully he can backup 1B as well.

Of Gomes, Nix, and Heisey, neither of the first too fit that starter mold. Gomes' horrible defense means he's only productive when he's mashing, and a negative producer when he's not. Nix's defense gives him a nice production base, but the only way he gets on first enough is when he's getting BABIP lucky. Heisey is similar to Nix, except he's younger, arguably a better defender and has better OBP skillls, though less power. He's also right handed, which is needed in this lineup IMO.

All that said, none of those 3 is an option I'd be terribly excited about as a starter. Heisey easily has the highest ceiling among them, but that's a ceiling an average major leaguer, maybe slightly above average if everything breaks right for him. So I consider these guys all bench candidates, with Heisey my backup LF starter. So I'm taking Heisey as my 4th OF.

That means we still need a starting LF and a 5th OF. In terms of starting LF, nobody in the organization jumps out. The guys who can hit aren't good in the field and the guys who can field aren't much at the plate. That said, we've got plenty of options in the former category who can fill the 5 OF role, ranging from Fransisco, to Balentien, to Dorn, to Frazier, and maybe Alonso maybe. You could even make an argument for Sappelt given how he's hit the last two years. Point being, I'm not interested in paying more than the minimum for near replacement level production from a backup when we have copious in house options with some upside.

So, I'm really looking for better options for starter. It's probably not a FA since we'll be outbid for Werth or Crawford and Dunn is a 1B. But between our excess of bats and arms, we should be able to land some capable LF in a trade. They simply aren't that hard to find. Nick Markakis? Seth Smith? Matt Kemp? Matt Joyce? Aubrey Huff? I don't know who it is exactly, but I want a guy with an .825 OPS and league average defense in LF. They don't grow on trees but they're out there and we have the resources find one.

If we can't find one and Heisey is the starter, Sappelt or Nix becomes your defense guy and you still have lots of choices for bats. But I don't resign Nix because it locks me in to either Heisey as starter or a duplication of talents on the bench and no room for a higher ceiling bat.

thatcoolguy_22
09-24-2010, 12:35 PM
I voted keep Nix. He mashes righties, plays above average defense at all 3 OF spots, and is relatively cheap. I'm not against Dorn but I like Nix' upside with the glove over him. Also I would like to seeb only 1 of Nix/Gomes kept.

fearofpopvol1
09-24-2010, 12:48 PM
fearofpop, you're giving Nix's overall numbers, then comparing them to Dorn's possible numbers against righthanders. Wouldn't it be more instructive in this comparison to at least use Nix's numbers against righthanders as well? With the Reds, his OPS in that case is .800. Even if you look at his career numbers against right handed pitching, they are a bit higher than the numbers you've given, as camisa has shown.

Absolutely, but the problem is, I could not find a place where Dorn's career splits against righties were listed. For 2010 however, his OPS has been .982 against RHP. He's been raking.

fearofpopvol1
09-24-2010, 12:55 PM
First of all, sometimes you know that a player doesn't have what it takes to succeed in the majors no matter how well he performs in AAA. I could come up with several examples of that.

Second of all, I'm not saying he shouldn't be given a chance. He's definitely earned a shot. But what I am saying is that it would be foolish to count on him as a replacement for Nix.

I'll grant you that Nix may be having a career year, but I think it's worth noting that he has looked like a completely different ball player since coming to the Reds. His numbers before he came to Cincinnati drag everything down drastically, and I don't think it's fair to expect him to perform anything close to that next year. Danny Dorn, on the other hand, is a complete wild card, and it would be very fortunate if he performed like Nix has, but unfortunately, his lack of defense limits him to pretty much only a pinch-hitting role at best.

To your first point, I know what you're getting at, but it's not like Dorn right now is some journeymen. He's moved up to each level and succeeded, epsecially when he platooned and hitting against RHP.

Why is it foolish to count on Dorn? Was it foolish for the Reds to count on Votto to outproduce Hatteberg after he had an awesome season?

Nix has looked better as a Red, no doubt, but Nix is 30 years old. In addition, last year he didn't look like anything special. His bat was terrible, even though his glove was good. This year, his bat and glove have looked great as a 4th OF, but again, I think he's having a career year and I think the best we could reasonably expect is for him to put up numbers similar to last year, which aren't all that impressive in my opinion. Certainly not anything that we couldn't find in-house.

I am with RMR...I think Heisey can be the "Nix" of next year. I'd like one guy to be a real threat off the bench.

camisadelgolf
09-24-2010, 01:10 PM
Why is it foolish to count on Dorn? Was it foolish for the Reds to count on Votto to outproduce Hatteberg after he had an awesome season?

Nix has looked better as a Red, no doubt, but Nix is 30 years old. In addition, last year he didn't look like anything special. His bat was terrible, even though his glove was good. This year, his bat and glove have looked great as a 4th OF, but again, I think he's having a career year and I think the best we could reasonably expect is for him to put up numbers similar to last year, which aren't all that impressive in my opinion. Certainly not anything that we couldn't find in-house.

I am with RMR...I think Heisey can be the "Nix" of next year. I'd like one guy to be a real threat off the bench.
The Reds didn't count on Votto to outproduce Hatteberg. Hatteberg got himself released by performing disastrously. If Nix is horrible next season, then by all means, give the job to Dorn or someone else. But over the past couple years, Nix has been beyond serviceable against RHP.

camisadelgolf
09-24-2010, 01:12 PM
And from my perspective, 2.0+ WAR is what gets you in the door for a commitment as an every day player. I want either a guarantee of that production or the promise of significantly more production to make the risk worthwhile. What I absolute do not want is to give an everyday job to a player who's skill set fundamentally caps his production at a mediocre level.
2009 - 337 PAs - 2.0 WAR
2010 - 174 PAs - 1.5 WAR

dfs
09-24-2010, 01:20 PM
Hasn't he earned a chance at this point?

How much of a chance has he earned?

He's hit 300 as a part time 1B/DH/corner OF in AAA at the age of 25. I would guess as a lefty hitter he's had the platoon advantage and not had to hit against many Loogies.

I would certainly think he can hit. So, you have to look at a couple other things.

First, since Walt started he's talked about changing the character of the team by emphasizing defense. By all rights Nix can play center field in the major leagues and not embarrass himself. The reds minor league organization thinks so much of Danny Dorn's OF defense that they play him at first and have him DH. I know Heisey and Stubbs can cover CF, but Walt gets a say in who gets to play and Walt wants defense.

Second, by all accounts Dusty Baker likes have Laynce Nix around. When the manager likes you, the odds of you getting that 5th OF slot or 25 man on the roster position goes way up.

Finally, does Dorn deserve a chance any more than Nix deserves to lose his job?

The reds have a lot of these guys...that deserve a chance but are just not going to get one in the near future with this organzition. Yonder, Maloney, Dorn. You would think the reds would try and trade for some quality. Somebody could use a lefty DH that's gonna be dirt cheap for the next 3 years.

fearofpopvol1
09-24-2010, 01:21 PM
The Reds didn't count on Votto to outproduce Hatteberg. Hatteberg got himself released by performing disastrously.

Over 61 PAs?

camisadelgolf
09-24-2010, 01:47 PM
Over 61 PAs?
Yeah, he was that bad. Votto was horrible in spring training, and Hatteberg was excellent, so the thought was that Hatteberg would be the everyday first baseman until Votto was ready. Hatteberg started the regular season off slow, and the thought was that he might rebound, but he continued to fail and looked horrible at the plate as a result of a slower swing. Then, in mid April, Votto heated up, took the job from Hatteberg, and the Reds DFAed Hatteberg whose career was obviously toast.

RedsManRick
09-24-2010, 02:08 PM
2009 - 337 PAs - 2.0 WAR
2010 - 174 PAs - 1.5 WAR

The joy of Fangraphs and B-Ref calculating WAR differently... The 2.0 WAR in 2009 was 0.5 offense and 1.5 defense. I have a hard time believe he was 15 runs above replacement defensively in half of a season of playing time....

Do you think he's a lock for that level of production given 600 PA (as opposed to be spotting against righties?)? And would you be happy if that was all we got?

If we're projecting future performance, I'd happily take the under on 2 WAR from Nix, even given 600 PA. His bat is replacement level for a LF when he's not experiencing an unsustainably high BABIP. And I doubt he's the caliber of Carl Crawford or Franklin Gutierrez defensively...

Ghosts of 1990
09-24-2010, 02:17 PM
I'm at a stage where I want to change as little as possible with this club. I want to bring close to the same group back next year with a few additions, and see what happens. That's just me. I said to bring him back w/ arb.

fearofpopvol1
09-24-2010, 02:43 PM
Yeah, he was that bad. Votto was horrible in spring training, and Hatteberg was excellent, so the thought was that Hatteberg would be the everyday first baseman until Votto was ready. Hatteberg started the regular season off slow, and the thought was that he might rebound, but he continued to fail and looked horrible at the plate as a result of a slower swing. Then, in mid April, Votto heated up, took the job from Hatteberg, and the Reds DFAed Hatteberg whose career was obviously toast.

Keep in mind, Hatteberg played in 24 games in 2008, which would suggest to me that he had quite a few PH appearances over his 61 plate appearances. So, in reality, he didn't get too many starts. Given how well Hatteberg produced for the Reds in 2006, 2007 and spring training, the leash he was given was pretty small, don't you think? I don't think he was given a fair chance to turn it around.

What I'm getting at it is sometimes the young guy is better than the old(er) guy, even though the veteran is more "proven." In the case of Votto, that was absolutely true. If the Reds had continued to trot Hatteberg out, Votto would have sat for who knows how long. The bottom line is, we don't know if Dorn will or won't be better than Nix until he has a chance. I believe given his numbers in the minors at every stop Dorn would be better than Nix and he would obviously be cheaper.

camisadelgolf
09-24-2010, 02:47 PM
The joy of Fangraphs and B-Ref calculating WAR differently... The 2.0 WAR in 2009 was 0.5 offense and 1.5 defense. I have a hard time believe he was 15 runs above replacement defensively in half of a season of playing time....

Do you think he's a lock for that level of production given 600 PA (as opposed to be spotting against righties?)? And would you be happy if that was all we got?

If we're projecting future performance, I'd happily take the under on 2 WAR from Nix, even given 600 PA. His bat is replacement level for a LF when he's not experiencing an unsustainably high BABIP. And I doubt he's the caliber of Carl Crawford or Franklin Gutierrez defensively...

I have a hard time believing the numbers, too. Do I think he's a lock for the level of production he's given the past couple years? No, I don't. But I'd rather overpay for an above-replacement level player than pay a fair value for a replacement-level player. Believe me, I'd love to upgrade over Nix, but who are they going to find to do that, and at what cost?

camisadelgolf
09-24-2010, 02:49 PM
I believe given his numbers in the minors at every stop Dorn would be better than Nix and he would obviously be cheaper.
In that case, we don't agree at all. It's understandable to make your argument; and not to sound like FCB, I trust my eyes more than minor league numbers.