2011 40-Man Roster Construction

[Brutus]

I've put together a spreadsheet, as part of my organizational references that I've been working on, regarding this offseason's 40-Man roster.

Here is a first draft, containing the current roster (with offseason status) and all the eligible Minor League free agents and Rule 5-eligible players within the system that need added to the roster or may be taken in the next Rule 5 draft.

40-MAN ROSTER GRID (https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Asjb5kvZz0PcdHFGRnBIMGxJUVpDUUJMdGduOWRWQ 1E&authkey=CNa3xo4H&hl=en#gid=2)

I have not included, in the right column of minor league possibilities, players such as Devin Mesoraco, Dave Sappelt, Donnie Joseph, etc. who may wind up on the roster at some point this next season, but are not likely to be reserved this November 20 when the protection lists are due to Major League Baseball.

Each team reserves 40 players under the Majors (obviously), 38 for AAA, 37 for AA and 35 for all other classifications. Essentially all Rule 5-eligible players can be drafted at a level higher (or more) than they are reserved on November 20. The Rule 5 draft takes place at the winter meetings in mid-December in three phases: Major League (for all players in the minors not on a 40-man roster), AAA or 3A phase (for players reserved at AA or below) and 2A phase (for players reserved at A or below).

Players become eligible for their 4th Rule 5 draft since the date of signing their first pro contract. Players 18 or younger on the June 5 preceding their first contract get an additional 5th draft before becoming Rule 5 eligible.

So, if my math is correct, while this is not an official list, here are the 39 players I've concluded are currently Rule 5 eligible for the Major League phase:


RP AGUIDO GONZALEZ L L 24
RP ANDREW BOWMAN R L 24
SP BEN JUKICH L L 27
3B CARLOS MENDEZ R R 24
C CHRIS DENOVE R R 27
SP CLAYTON SHUNICK R R 24
SP CURTIS PARTCH R R 23
SP DALLAS BUCK R R 25
1B DANIEL DORN L L 26
RP DANIEL GUERRERO R R 25
RP DOUG SALINAS R R 21
1B ERIC EYMANN R R 26
RP EZEQUIEL INFANTE L L 22
2B JAKE KAHAULELIO R R 25
SP JAMES AVERY R R 26
RP JEFF JEFFORDS R R 25
RP JEREMY HORST L L 24
SP JORDAN HOTCHKISS R R 24
C JORDAN WIDEMAN R R 21
2B JOSE CASTRO S R 23
2B JOSE GUALDRON R R 23
RP JOSEPH KREBS L L 26
SP JOSH RAVIN R R 22
RP JUNIOR MARTINEZ R R 24
OF JUSTIN REED L R 22
OF KEVYN FEINER R R 23
SS KRIS NEGRON R R 24
RP LEE TABOR L L 25
SP MATT KLINKER R R 25
1B MICHAEL GRIFFIN R R 26
SS MIGUEL ROJAS R R 21
3B MIKE COSTANZO L R 27
SP SCOTT CARROLL R R 26
RP SCOTT GAFFNEY R R 24
OF SEAN HENRY R R 25
OF TODD FRAZIER R R 24
SP TRAVIS WEBB L L 26
RP TZU-KAI CHIU L L 23
SS ZACK COZART R R 25


Further, players that have been assigned outright by their Major League club (see Micah Owings) who's minor league contract has expired become free agents. Even if a club re-signs these players, they are still eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not re-added.

Minor league players initially sign 7-year contracts, covering all or portions of 7 different minor league seasons. If these players become free agents, they too are Rule 5 eligible even after signing for the following season. Subsequent minor league contracts, or contracts signed by players with previous Major League experience often sign multi-year deals, though these minor league contracts are not published. Therefore, I always assume 7 years for the first contract and 1 year deals for any player signed thereafter.

With that in mind, my tentative list of minor league free agents that the Reds have to tend to this offseason:


SP MICAH OWINGS R R 27 ASSIGNED
SP JUSTIN LEHR R R 33 FREE AGENT (C)
SP DARYL THOMPSON R R 24 FREE AGENT (C)
RP JERRY GIL R R 27 FREE AGENT (C)
RP JASON ISRINGHAUSEN R R 38 FREE AGENT (C)
P CHAD REINEKE R R 28 FREE AGENT (C)
C WILKIN CASTILLO S R 26 FREE AGENT (C)
RP JESUS DELGADO R R 26 FREE AGENT (D)
RP FEDERICO BAEZ R R 29 FREE AGENT (D)
RP GILBERT DE LA VARA L L 25 FREE AGENT (D)
RP RUBEN MEDINA R R 24 FREE AGENT (D)
P ABE WOODY R R 27 FREE AGENT (D)
C BRANDON YARBROUGH L R 25 FREE AGENT (D)
RF DENIS PHIPPS R R 25 FREE AGENT (D)


De La Vara (who the Reds signed this August after he was released -- for the second time this season mind you -- by the Tigers), may have additional seasons covered by his Minor League UPC, but I'm unable to verify. I'll assume not, for now. He was actually drafted in last year's Rule 5 draft by Houston, but returned to Kansas City prior to the season as Houston decided they had too many LHP specialists. Yarbrough is a former Cardinals' third-round pick.

Note above that the only difference between Free Agent (C) and (D) is the C players have Major League experience.

As for the 40-Man Roster itself, the Reds currently have 43 players and need to dwindle that number down to 40 (or less) by November 20.

Free Agents Mike Lincoln, Russ Springer and Willie Bloomquist seem to be the perfect fits for that task.

Step 2 for me: find room for Matt Klinker, Doug Salinas, Zack Cozart and Todd Frazier at very least. I know some may be surprised by Salinas, but I'm pretty high on him. Conservatively though, the Reds will need to find 3-5 spots, especially if Danny Dorn is added. I suspect that will only happen if Gomes is out the door or the Reds will not be keeping either Laynce Nix or Jim Edmonds.

So let's assume four spots (though others may disagree on the fourth).

We can safely assume Aaron Harang's option won't be picked up. There's a good chance Corky Miller will again be outright assigned. I doubt the Reds pick up the Orlando Cabrera option. Jim Edmonds is likely to retire. So there's your four.

Sam LeCure and Matt Maloney are non-tender candidates. Further, Miguel Cairo may not be re-signed. There are three more possible spots. I'm guessing that Dorn and any outside OF possibility shall be tied to the futures of Nix and Gomes.

One last thing to consider: Homer Bailey, Carlos Fisher and (if healthy) Jose Arredondo will need to make the club next year. The three of them are out of options.

OK that's all I got for now. If anyone sees any additions/subtractions/corrections with the Rule 5 list, by all means let me know. I feel like it's pretty accurate, but given there are well over 275 players in the organization, I may have made a mistake or two with my database.

[camisadelgolf]

Clay Shunick was drafted in 2008. Jordan Wideman was younger than 19 when he signed. Other than that, all those players are rule five eligible. I may be able to find a few more eligible players for you.

[cinreds21]

Just to continue with what Brutus said, there are different phases of the Rule V draft. When the reds set their Triple and Double-A roster for the Rule V draft. Say they don't protect Klinker. They would put Klinker on the AAA roster, meaning if he was taken he would have to be on the 25-man roster for his new team. Now, they may put someone like Jose Castro on the Double-A roster, so if he is taken, he is taken in the minor league phase. The only reason I bring this is up so they would put those 37 players they really don't want to leave on the Triple-A roster so if they are taken they have to be on the big league roster. They put guys (fillers almost) on the Double-A roster. So there is a lot of strategy going into it, not just putting guys on the 40, but beyond that.
Also, I really don't see Maloney or LeCure as non-tender candidates. Fisher, Danny Ray on the other hand, I could easily see that happening

[lollipopcurve]

I really don't see Maloney or LeCure as non-tender candidates

Agreed.

I could see Burton being nontendered. I'd keep Fisher ahead of him.

[Brutus]

Clay Shunick was drafted in 2008. Jordan Wideman was younger than 19 when he signed. Other than that, all those players are rule five eligible. I may be able to find a few more eligible players for you.

Good catch on those two. I have their draft, signing and birth dates correct in the database, so it was simply human error (ha ha). I'm going to automate my database to tell me the players that are eligible, removing any clumsy work, but I just haven't entered the formula yet.

[RED VAN HOT]

I have been away on vacation, so I might have missed a transaction, but is there a reason Balentien was not included for consideration?

[camisadelgolf]

I have been away on vacation, so I might have missed a transaction, but is there a reason Balentien was not included for consideration?
I would guess it's because he's a free agent.

[Brutus]

Just to continue with what Brutus said, there are different phases of the Rule V draft. When the reds set their Triple and Double-A roster for the Rule V draft. Say they don't protect Klinker. They would put Klinker on the AAA roster, meaning if he was taken he would have to be on the 25-man roster for his new team. Now, they may put someone like Jose Castro on the Double-A roster, so if he is taken, he is taken in the minor league phase. The only reason I bring this is up so they would put those 37 players they really don't want to leave on the Triple-A roster so if they are taken they have to be on the big league roster. They put guys (fillers almost) on the Double-A roster. So there is a lot of strategy going into it, not just putting guys on the 40, but beyond that.
Also, I really don't see Maloney or LeCure as non-tender candidates. Fisher, Danny Ray on the other hand, I could easily see that happening

It seems to me they were pretty protective of Danny Ray being a LH option. I doubt he's in jeopardy either, though Fisher I could definitely see.

Personally, I don't expect LeCure to be non-tendered, nor necessarily Maloney, but with the depth of the rotation, it wouldn't surprised me if one is let go for that reason.

[Brutus]

I have been away on vacation, so I might have missed a transaction, but is there a reason Balentien was not included for consideration?

Ah yes, very simple reason: he was at the top of my table and I just simply inadvertently didn't paste him into the section :)

I haven't been able to tell his minor league contract status, but I do believe he should be on the list, if even as a free agent. Thanks for pointing that out. He was completely supposed to be included in this, just simply missed pasting him into the code.

[cinreds21]

It seems to me they were pretty protective of Danny Ray being a LH option. I doubt he's in jeopardy either, though Fisher I could definitely see.

Personally, I don't expect LeCure to be non-tendered, nor necessarily Maloney, but with the depth of the rotation, it wouldn't surprised me if one is let go for that reason.

The reason why I say Danny is expendable is because they have other options who are just as good or perhaps better than him. They have Vall already on the 40. Krebs and Horst are both candidates to be put on, and also Donnie Joseph is maybe half a season away. Now it could be they keep Danny Ray on and opt not to put Krebs or Horst on. It could go either way. I just think Danny Ray has a "better" shot, along with Fisher, of being removed to make room for someone who is Rule V eligible.

[Brutus]

The reason why I say Danny is expendable is because they have other options who are just as good or perhaps better than him. They have Vall already on the 40. Krebs and Horst are both candidates to be put on, and also Donnie Joseph is maybe half a season away. Now it could be they keep Danny Ray on and opt not to put Krebs or Horst on. It could go either way. I just think Danny Ray has a "better" shot, along with Fisher, of being removed to make room for someone who is Rule V eligible.

That makes sense. I definitely think Horst is a guy that may be intriguing for that role. I could envision a scenario where DRH is non-tendered in order to pave the way for Horst.

[Mario-Rijo]

It seems to me they were pretty protective of Danny Ray being a LH option. I doubt he's in jeopardy either, though Fisher I could definitely see.

Personally, I don't expect LeCure to be non-tendered, nor necessarily Maloney, but with the depth of the rotation, it wouldn't surprised me if one is let go for that reason.

I think LeCure is a guy who sticks around. He's a nice cheap insurance policy for the rotation and could be used quite solidly out of the pen in the mean time. I think Maloney is almost the pitching version of Dorn, they just don't see him as a Red.

[mace]

I think Hotchkiss has to be in the conversation. Given that he had such a good year, and that he finished it in Double-A, it wouldn't be surprising if the Reds got burned by exposing him.

[Brutus]

I think LeCure is a guy who sticks around. He's a nice cheap insurance policy for the rotation and could be used quite solidly out of the pen in the mean time. I think Maloney is almost the pitching version of Dorn, they just don't see him as a Red.

That's kind of how I look at it. That's why I wouldn't be completely shocked if Maloney isn't tendered a new contract. LeCure's versatility seems to be something the Reds value.

[JaxRed]

I'd be stunned if Maloney isn't tendered. First of all, he's still got an option according to Brutus' site, if he's on the club he makes league minimum.

And he's a LH starter with a 3.57 ERA.

[HokieRed]

I'd be stunned if Maloney isn't tendered. First of all, he's still got an option according to Brutus' site, if he's on the club he makes league minimum.

And he's a LH starter with a 3.57 ERA.

Agree. Also I see little to worry about on this list. Cozart and Frazier obviously will go on; it seems to me unlikely anyone else will be taken.

[Mario-Rijo]

I'd be stunned if Maloney isn't tendered. First of all, he's still got an option according to Brutus' site, if he's on the club he makes league minimum.

And he's a LH starter with a 3.57 ERA.

I do think he will be tendered though just as another cheap insurance policy. I just think he is far more likely to end up gone than LeCure if for some reason one of them needed to be gone. Like clearing a spot for someone else.

[Mario-Rijo]

Agree. Also I see little to worry about on this list. Cozart and Frazier obviously will go on; it seems to me unlikely anyone else will be taken.

It may still depend on how some guys do in the AFL. I know there is a list here somewhere does anyone know which thread it's in?

Disregard I found the list.....OF Sappelt, IF Negron, C Mesoraco, LHP Valiquette, LHP Horst, RHP Avery all have a shot at cracking the 40.

[cinreds21]

It may still depend on how some guys do in the AFL. I know there is a list here somewhere does anyone know which thread it's in?

Disregard I found the list.....OF Sappelt, IF Negron, C Mesoraco, LHP Valiquette, LHP Horst, RHP Avery all have a shot at cracking the 40.

Sapp and Mes no, they're not eligible for the Rule V so they won't put them unless they have to. Vall is already on it. Avery is going mostly to get innings in. So out of the AZL team, the only ones who are "proving" they deserve a spot really are Negs and Horst.

[camisadelgolf]

Sapp and Mes no, they're not eligible for the Rule V so they won't put them unless they have to. Vall is already on it. Avery is going mostly to get innings in. So out of the AZL team, the only ones who are "proving" they deserve a spot really are Negs and Horst.
Mesoraco is (barely) eligible for the rule five draft. Had he signed a few days earlier than he did, he wouldn't be eligible until next year.

[mth123]

The Reds need to find 8 spots for Jose Arredondo, Jordan Hotchkiss, Jeremy Horst, Matt Klinker, Devin Mesoraco, Zach Cozart, Kris Negron, Todd Frazier. If they find extra spots then Wlad Balentien and Danny Dorn have outside chances.

Possible Spots Opening (12): Aaron Harang, Corky Miller, Jim Edmonds, Miguel Cairo, Orlando Cabrera, Laynce Nix, Willie Bloomquist, Arthur Rhodes??? Ramon Hernandez??? Bronson Arroyo??? Jared Burton??? Johnny Gomes???

I'd guess Ramon, Arroyo and Gomes will be back. Not sure if Rhodes will be extended or if Burton will be tendered a contract.

[Brutus]

Mesoraco is (barely) eligible for the rule five draft. Had he signed a few days earlier than he did, he wouldn't be eligible until next year.

It doesn't matter when you sign. It only matters when your birthday is within the year that you sign (provided it's during the season and if it's during the offseason for international or undrafted free agents, then that season's Rule 5 meeting doesn't count against the player).

Mez isn't eligible this year.

From Major League Rules, ML Rule 5 (Players Subject to Selection)


(c) PLAYERS SUBJECT TO SELECTION. All players on the Minor League Reserve Lists of Major League and Minor League Clubs, except players on the Voluntarily Retired, Disqualified or Ineligible Lists, shall be subject to selection by other Major League Clubs at the Rule 5 Selection Meeting in accordance with the following:

(1) A player without previous Major or Minor League service who signs with a Major League or independent Minor League Club shall be subject to selection based on the following:

(A) if 18 years of age or under on the June 5 immediately preceding the player's signing, the player shall be subject to selection at the fifth Rule 5 Selection Meeting that follows the signing date of the player's first Major or Minor League contract, unless Rule 5(c)(1)(C) applies;

(B) if 19 years of age or over on the June 5 immediately preceding the player's signing, the player shall be subject to selection at the fourth Selection Meeting that follows the signing date of the player's first Major or Minor League contract, unless Rule 5(c)(1)(C) applies;

(C) if the signing date of a player’s first Major or Minor League contract is between

(i) the conclusion of the championship season for the Major or Minor League Club to which the player is assigned on such contract and
(ii) the next Rule 5 Selection Meeting, then the player shall be deemed to have signed after the next Rule 5 Selection Meeting, for purposes of this Rule 5(c)(1).

(2) A player who is re-signed by a Club within one year from the date the Club released the player or voided the player's contract pursuant to the terms of such contract shall be subject to draft at the Rule 5 Selection Meeting following the date of the latest contract with that Club.

(3) A player who has been subject to draft at a Rule 5 Selection Meeting shall be subject to draft at any subsequent Rule 5 Selection Meeting if the player is on a Minor League Reserve List (filed pursuant to Rule 2 (Player Limits and Reserve Lists)) at the time of the Rule 5 Selection Meeting.

(4) A player

(A) whose contract has been assigned outright by a Major League Club to a Minor League Club,

(B) who has been signed as a free agent to a Minor League Uniform Player Contract for services in the following year and is otherwise subject to selection pursuant to Rule 5(c)(1) or Rule 5(c)(2), or

(C) who has been released unconditionally from a Minor League roster and is otherwise subject to selection pursuant to Rule 5(c)(1) or Rule 5(c)(2),
shall be subject to selection at any subsequent Rule 5 Selection Meeting if the player is on a Minor League Reserve List (filed pursuant to Rule 2 (Player Limits and Reserve Lists)) at the time of the Rule 5 Selection Meeting.

(5) A Major League or independent Minor League Club may designate any player on one of its Minor League Reserve Lists to be subject to selection who otherwise would not be selectable under this Rule 5.


So Mesoraco will be eligible next season, but not yet. He was still 18 two weeks prior to his signing, so he gets that 5th season of protection before he's eligible. His Birthday is June 19, he signed June 22 of 2007 when he was 19, but only 18 on his birthday as of June 5, so he is eligible for the 5th rule 5 draft in December 2011.

[Brutus]

The Reds need to find 8 spots for Jose Arredondo, Jordan Hotchkiss, Jeremy Horst, Matt Klinker, Devin Mesoraco, Zach Cozart, Kris Negron, Todd Frazier. If they find extra spots then Wlad Balentien and Danny Dorn have outside chances.

Possible Spots Opening (12): Aaron Harang, Corky Miller, Jim Edmonds, Miguel Cairo, Orlando Cabrera, Laynce Nix, Willie Bloomquist, Arthur Rhodes??? Ramon Hernandez??? Bronson Arroyo??? Jared Burton??? Johnny Gomes???

I'd guess Ramon, Arroyo and Gomes will be back. Not sure if Rhodes will be extended or if Burton will be tendered a contract.

Arredondo is already on the 40-man. Mesoraco isn't Rule 5 eligible, so he can wait.

[corkedbat]

I expect Walt to be somewhat active this offseason and some 40-man spots may open due to 2-for-1, 3-for-2 deals, etc. Not sure how many will occur before the Rule V though.

[camisadelgolf]

Thanks, Brutus. I hadn't seen the rule five written that way before. Everywhere else, it's stated much more vaguely than that.

[Brutus]

Thanks, Brutus. I hadn't seen the rule five written that way before. Everywhere else, it's stated much more vaguely than that.

Yeah it wasn't too long ago I had seen that for the first time myself. It's a part of the rule that I've hardly ever heard mentioned.

[cinreds21]

Yeah it wasn't too long ago I had seen that for the first time myself. It's a part of the rule that I've hardly ever heard mentioned.

What rule? I am confused by the bolded part a few posts up.

[Brutus]

What rule? I am confused by the bolded part a few posts up.

Basically that you get to be left unprotected for five (5) Rule 5 drafts if you're 18 or younger when signed, and four (4) drafts if you're 19 or older. That's the part generally everyone knows about.

The bolded part, which is the subsection that applies to Mesoraco, clarifies that the date is not from when you actually sign (when Mesoraco had just turned 19), but rather the age the player was on June 5 (when he was still 18).

In other words, the Rule 5 eligibility for either 4 or 5 seasons is based on the birthdate of the preceding June 5 and not the actual signing date.

[cinreds21]

Basically that you get to be left unprotected for five (5) Rule 5 drafts if you're 18 or younger when signed, and four (4) drafts if you're 19 or older. That's the part generally everyone knows about.

The bolded part, which is the subsection that applies to Mesoraco, clarifies that the date is not from when you actually sign (when Mesoraco had just turned 19), but rather the age the player was on June 5 (when he was still 18).

In other words, the Rule 5 eligibility for either 4 or 5 seasons is based on the birthdate of the preceding June 5 and not the actual signing date.

Oh ok, I got ya, so If your'e younger than 19 before June 5th you get the extra year.

[Brutus]

Oh ok, I got ya, so If your'e younger than 19 before June 5th you get the extra year.

Basically, but it's the other way around.. if you turn 19 after June 5, then you get the extra year. If on June 5 you are already 19, then you have 4 years.

[cinreds21]

oooooooo ok

Dang, and I thought I had the Rule V draft down pat, guess not lol

[mth123]

Arredondo is already on the 40-man. Mesoraco isn't Rule 5 eligible, so he can wait.

Arredodno is on the 60 day DL. Still need to make a spot. Not sure on Mes. It would help if you are right.

[Brutus]

Arredodno is on the 60 day DL. Still need to make a spot. Not sure on Mes. It would help if you are right.

Well that's true. He's not counting against the 40 players, so yeah from that standpoint Arrendondo will need to have room cleared.

As far as Mesoraco, I'm positive on him. Read the rule I posted above from the ML Rules. I had the application of the rule confirmed by someone in baseball for a story I'm going to be writing on roster protection for Biz of Baseball. So the Reds will be able to hold off on him until later next season whenever they decide to call him up.

[mth123]

Well that's true. He's not counting against the 40 players, so yeah from that standpoint Arrendondo will need to have room cleared.

As far as Mesoraco, I'm positive on him. Read the rule I posted above from the ML Rules. I had the application of the rule confirmed by someone in baseball for a story I'm going to be writing on roster protection for Biz of Baseball. So the Reds will be able to hold off on him until later next season whenever they decide to call him up.

OK. I'm in agreement on Mes.

1. He was 18 on June 5th of the year he signed so he is exempt for 4 drafts and eligible on the 5th one.

2. Rule 5 drafts have occurred in December of 2007, 2008, and 2009 since he signed. That is only 3 so he is protected from December of 2010 and doesn't need to be on the 40 man until November of 2011.

Good find Brutus. That frees a spot that I hadn't been counting on in my personal projections. I'd give it to Wlad but since James Avery is going to the AFL, I'm wondering if the Reds aren't seriously thinking of giving it to him.

[Brutus]

OK. I'm in agreement on Mes.

1. He was 18 on June 5th of the year he signed so he is exempt for 4 drafts and eligible on the 5th one.

2. Rule 5 drafts have occurred in December of 2007, 2008, and 2009 since he signed. That is only 3 so he is protected from December of 2010 and doesn't need to be on the 40 man until November of 2011.

Good find Brutus. That frees a spot that I hadn't been counting on in my personal projections. I'd give it to Wlad but since James Avery is going to the AFL, I'm wondering if the Reds aren't seriously thinking of giving it to him.

No problem! I think it's good news to a lot of people, because it was widely assumed he would have to be added this offseason. I imagine we'll see him added and called-up sometime late next season, probably September.

[JaxRed]

I don't think Avery is anything more than a warm body. No way will he be protected.

[mth123]

I don't think Avery is anything more than a warm body. No way will he be protected.

I thought the same until the Reds sent him to the AFL. Why send him then?

[cinreds21]

I thought the same until the Reds sent him to the AFL. Why send him then?

Get more innings in. He missed half of the year and half of last year with Tommy John Surgery.

[dougdirt]

Get more innings in. He missed half of the year and half of last year with Tommy John Surgery.

The Reds have always liked him quite a bit. I wouldn't be shocked at all if he stuck to the 40 man this offseason.

[Brutus]

I thought the same until the Reds sent him to the AFL. Why send him then?

There could be a lot of reasons to send him to the AFL. I'm sure they want additional evaluation of him, additional seasoning. That could lead to adding him, but it also could be a matter of whether to protect him at AAA or AA.

[mth123]

Get more innings in. He missed half of the year and half of last year with Tommy John Surgery.

He can get innings in Mexico or the Dominican. The Reds sent him (and everybody else who goes) to the AFL because they want to evaluate him against other highly regarded prospects. If innings were the only issue they wouldn't waste an AFL spot on him. They must think highly of him for him to go there. Could've used that spot on Hotchkiss, Grandal or somebody else who is a prospect if they didn't value Avery.

[cinreds21]

He can get innings in Mexico or the Dominican. The Reds sent him (and everybody else who goes) to the AFL because they want to evaluate him against other highly regarded prospects. If innings were the only issue they wouldn't waste an AFL spot on him. They must think highly of him for him to go there. Could've used that spot on Hotchkiss, Grandal or somebody else who is a prospect if they didn't value Avery.

Perhaps, but maybe they didn't want to send Hotchkiss because of his innings. This year he threw 129.2 between High and Double-A. That was the most innings he's ever thrown, blowing away last year when he only threw 85.2. They likely (not positive) didn't want him to get more work in innings wise and they needed to get Avery some innings. It's been done before with different teams so it's not unheard of.

[mth123]

Perhaps, but maybe they didn't want to send Hotchkiss because of his innings. This year he threw 129.2 between High and Double-A. That was the most innings he's ever thrown, blowing away last year when he only threw 85.2. They likely (not positive) didn't want him to get more work in innings wise and they needed to get Avery some innings. It's been done before with different teams so it's not unheard of.

Agree about Hotchkiss innings. Still, AFL spots are too valuable just to get work in. There has to be more of a reason than that.

[mdccclxix]

BUMP - deadline is friday night. Discuss.

[cinreds21]

My list: Frazier, Cozey, Klinker, Carroll, and Horst

[cinreds21]

Just an update (kinda)

I texted a candidate and got this response: "no not yet. You got any Mr. GM?"

[dougdirt]

I would protect: Frazier, Cozart, Thompson, Horst and Negron. My gut tells me that Carroll, Klinker and Dorn would go undrafted.

[lollipopcurve]

Frazier, Cozart, Negron, for sure

Dorn, maybe. If they are concerned about their AAA starting staff, maybe they keep Klinker and/or Thompson. I don't see Horst or Carroll getting a spot.

[cinreds21]

We shall see guys. It's gonna be really interesting to see.

[dougdirt]

Frazier, Cozart, Negron, for sure

Dorn, maybe. If they are concerned about their AAA starting staff, maybe they keep Klinker and/or Thompson. I don't see Horst or Carroll getting a spot.

I would be incredibly surprised if Horst is left off. A left handed pitcher with a sub 2.50 ERA between AA/AAA this season in nearly 60 innings is not likely to be left unprotected. I could be wrong, but it would really, really surprise me.

[lollipopcurve]

A left handed pitcher with a sub 2.50 ERA between AA/AAA this season in nearly 60 innings is not likely to be left unprotected. I could be wrong, but it would really, really surprise me.

You could be right. With Valiquette not showing much and DRay going south, they're getting a little thin there. But Horst's stuff is entirely marginal.

Open spots on the 40-man can come in handy.

[redsof72]

Tough call. Once you get past the two locks, Negron would seem likely. The Reds see Klinker as a LeCure clone in terms of stuff and potential, and LeCure has been protected. Not sure about Thompson. Until the AFL, there was zero chance of him being protected. He has been so injury prone, not sure if anyone would take him. I would love to see Horst protected, but the Reds have never totally seemed sold on Horst even going back to '08 when he tore up the MWL with Dayton (took forever to move him into the rotation even though it was obvious he was their best pitcher). Hotchkiss? Results would say yes, but he has been an organizational guy. I heard that he was throwing a lot harder in 2010 than he ever had before and if that's true, then maybe. Early in the 2010 season, Carroll would have seemed like a sure thing and he has a good arm. A lot of these guys have shown glimpses but not done it over full seasons. Krebs doesn't throw hard enough. A darkhorse candidate would be Miguel Rojas, who would be on there if it came down to simply selecting the five prospects that the Reds like the best, but in his case, it would appear to be unlikely they would use a spot on him considering no one is likely to take a light-hitting Single-A shortstop, even with gold glove defensive skills.

Will be an interesting call, and we know how much more likely 40-man guys are to get those short-term call-ups that arise during the season, and for that reason, these decisions really become critical because these guys stand a good chance of seeing big league time in 2011.

[mdccclxix]

I only counted 33 players on the Reds website. Don't we have room for 7?

[cinreds21]

Yea, but you have to think one would go to Arthur and some free agents we sign. I see Fisher, Burton, Bray, and Danny Ray is candidates to get dropped if they need to make room.

So basically, if we have 33 spots now, make it 35 with the additions of Cozart and Frazier. Those are given, so we have 5 spots to protect guys with and/or sign/trade new players.

[mdccclxix]

Yea, but you have to think one would go to Arthur and some free agents we sign. I see Fisher, Burton, Bray, and Danny Ray is candidates to get dropped if they need to make room.

So basically, if we have 33 spots now, make it 35 with the additions of Cozart and Frazier. Those are given, so we have 5 spots to protect guys with and/or sign/trade new players.

OK, I knew I was missing somebody.

[OnBaseMachine]

There's no way the Reds DFA Bray, nor should they, IMO. He posted a 9.53 K/9 and .626 OPS against upon his return from Tommy John surgery and he looked dominant over the last month of the season. I think he'll be a key part of the Reds bullpen next season.

[lollipopcurve]

Didn't realize Hotchkiss and Rojas needed to be protected. Wouldn't be surprised if the Reds added both. Rojas is the kind of defender a major league team could make use of on its 25-man for a year.

[mdccclxix]

I've put together a spreadsheet, as part of my organizational references that I've been working on, regarding this offseason's 40-Man roster.

Here is a first draft, containing the current roster (with offseason status) and all the eligible Minor League free agents and Rule 5-eligible players within the system that need added to the roster or may be taken in the next Rule 5 draft.

40-MAN ROSTER GRID (https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Asjb5kvZz0PcdHFGRnBIMGxJUVpDUUJMdGduOWRWQ 1E&authkey=CNa3xo4H&hl=en#gid=2)

I have not included, in the right column of minor league possibilities, players such as Devin Mesoraco, Dave Sappelt, Donnie Joseph, etc. who may wind up on the roster at some point this next season, but are not likely to be reserved this November 20 when the protection lists are due to Major League Baseball.

Each team reserves 40 players under the Majors (obviously), 38 for AAA, 37 for AA and 35 for all other classifications. Essentially all Rule 5-eligible players can be drafted at a level higher (or more) than they are reserved on November 20. The Rule 5 draft takes place at the winter meetings in mid-December in three phases: Major League (for all players in the minors not on a 40-man roster), AAA or 3A phase (for players reserved at AA or below) and 2A phase (for players reserved at A or below).

Players become eligible for their 4th Rule 5 draft since the date of signing their first pro contract. Players 18 or younger on the June 5 preceding their first contract get an additional 5th draft before becoming Rule 5 eligible.

So, if my math is correct, while this is not an official list, here are the 39 players I've concluded are currently Rule 5 eligible for the Major League phase:


RP AGUIDO GONZALEZ L L 24
RP ANDREW BOWMAN R L 24
SP BEN JUKICH L L 27
3B CARLOS MENDEZ R R 24
C CHRIS DENOVE R R 27
SP CLAYTON SHUNICK R R 24
SP CURTIS PARTCH R R 23
SP DALLAS BUCK R R 25
1B DANIEL DORN L L 26
RP DANIEL GUERRERO R R 25
RP DOUG SALINAS R R 21
1B ERIC EYMANN R R 26
RP EZEQUIEL INFANTE L L 22
2B JAKE KAHAULELIO R R 25
SP JAMES AVERY R R 26
RP JEFF JEFFORDS R R 25
RP JEREMY HORST L L 24
SP JORDAN HOTCHKISS R R 24
C JORDAN WIDEMAN R R 21
2B JOSE CASTRO S R 23
2B JOSE GUALDRON R R 23
RP JOSEPH KREBS L L 26
SP JOSH RAVIN R R 22
RP JUNIOR MARTINEZ R R 24
OF JUSTIN REED L R 22
OF KEVYN FEINER R R 23
SS KRIS NEGRON R R 24
RP LEE TABOR L L 25
SP MATT KLINKER R R 25
1B MICHAEL GRIFFIN R R 26
SS MIGUEL ROJAS R R 21
3B MIKE COSTANZO L R 27
SP SCOTT CARROLL R R 26
RP SCOTT GAFFNEY R R 24
OF SEAN HENRY R R 25
OF TODD FRAZIER R R 24
SP TRAVIS WEBB L L 26
RP TZU-KAI CHIU L L 23
SS ZACK COZART R R 25


Further, players that have been assigned outright by their Major League club (see Micah Owings) who's minor league contract has expired become free agents. Even if a club re-signs these players, they are still eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not re-added.

Minor league players initially sign 7-year contracts, covering all or portions of 7 different minor league seasons. If these players become free agents, they too are Rule 5 eligible even after signing for the following season. Subsequent minor league contracts, or contracts signed by players with previous Major League experience often sign multi-year deals, though these minor league contracts are not published. Therefore, I always assume 7 years for the first contract and 1 year deals for any player signed thereafter.

With that in mind, my tentative list of minor league free agents that the Reds have to tend to this offseason:


SP MICAH OWINGS R R 27 ASSIGNED
SP JUSTIN LEHR R R 33 FREE AGENT (C)
SP DARYL THOMPSON R R 24 FREE AGENT (C)
RP JERRY GIL R R 27 FREE AGENT (C)
RP JASON ISRINGHAUSEN R R 38 FREE AGENT (C)
P CHAD REINEKE R R 28 FREE AGENT (C)
C WILKIN CASTILLO S R 26 FREE AGENT (C)
RP JESUS DELGADO R R 26 FREE AGENT (D)
RP FEDERICO BAEZ R R 29 FREE AGENT (D)
RP GILBERT DE LA VARA L L 25 FREE AGENT (D)
RP RUBEN MEDINA R R 24 FREE AGENT (D)
P ABE WOODY R R 27 FREE AGENT (D)
C BRANDON YARBROUGH L R 25 FREE AGENT (D)
RF DENIS PHIPPS R R 25 FREE AGENT (D)


De La Vara (who the Reds signed this August after he was released -- for the second time this season mind you -- by the Tigers), may have additional seasons covered by his Minor League UPC, but I'm unable to verify. I'll assume not, for now. He was actually drafted in last year's Rule 5 draft by Houston, but returned to Kansas City prior to the season as Houston decided they had too many LHP specialists. Yarbrough is a former Cardinals' third-round pick.

Note above that the only difference between Free Agent (C) and (D) is the C players have Major League experience.

As for the 40-Man Roster itself, the Reds currently have 43 players and need to dwindle that number down to 40 (or less) by November 20.

Free Agents Mike Lincoln, Russ Springer and Willie Bloomquist seem to be the perfect fits for that task.

Step 2 for me: find room for Matt Klinker, Doug Salinas, Zack Cozart and Todd Frazier at very least. I know some may be surprised by Salinas, but I'm pretty high on him. Conservatively though, the Reds will need to find 3-5 spots, especially if Danny Dorn is added. I suspect that will only happen if Gomes is out the door or the Reds will not be keeping either Laynce Nix or Jim Edmonds.

So let's assume four spots (though others may disagree on the fourth).

We can safely assume Aaron Harang's option won't be picked up. There's a good chance Corky Miller will again be outright assigned. I doubt the Reds pick up the Orlando Cabrera option. Jim Edmonds is likely to retire. So there's your four.

Sam LeCure and Matt Maloney are non-tender candidates. Further, Miguel Cairo may not be re-signed. There are three more possible spots. I'm guessing that Dorn and any outside OF possibility shall be tied to the futures of Nix and Gomes.

One last thing to consider: Homer Bailey, Carlos Fisher and (if healthy) Jose Arredondo will need to make the club next year. The three of them are out of options.

OK that's all I got for now. If anyone sees any additions/subtractions/corrections with the Rule 5 list, by all means let me know. I feel like it's pretty accurate, but given there are well over 275 players in the organization, I may have made a mistake or two with my database.


Bumping this great info, Brutus. Thanks!

Add Cairo to the 40 man, I'd think as well. That should be it for FA's, IMO.

7 spots
-Cairo
-Rhodes
-Cozart
-Frazier
= 3 more spots

Hotchkiss (org. pitcher of the year) has a strong case. So does Thompson if he can move to the bullpen. Another team could easily make that happen. I'll guess:

Hotchkiss
Thompson
Negron

[mdccclxix]

Didn't realize Hotchkiss and Rojas needed to be protected. Wouldn't be surprised if the Reds added both. Rojas is the kind of defender a major league team could make use of on its 25-man for a year.

Fingers crossed. :(

[mth123]

My list: Frazier, Cozey, Klinker, Carroll, and Horst

Negron has to be on there.

[cinreds21]

Negron has to be on there.

I agree. I just didn't want backlash if I put him on here and people thought I was crazy.

[JaxRed]

Frazier, Cozart, Thompson, Horst. No Negron, No Carrol, no Avery.

[mth123]

Pass on Cairo. Deal Danny Rae for a PTBNL or DFA him. Sign Rhodes, and that leaves 7 spots.

Frazier, Cozart, Negron, Horst, Thompson, Hotchkiss and Carroll.

[AWA85]

The Reds added Zack Cozart, Todd Frazier, Kris Negron and Daryl Thompson to the 40-man roster today. They had to be added to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft.


Little bit surprising on Horst.

[lollipopcurve]

No real surprise. The arms at the top end of the minors are unremarkable.

I like them keeping some openings at this point.

[Redlags]

When do they set the AAA and AA rosters prior to the Rule 5 draft?

[Brutus]

When do they set the AAA and AA rosters prior to the Rule 5 draft?

That's what was already done, though the minor league protected rosters aren't typically publicized.

[Redlags]

Thanks - just curious who Reds put on AAA roster and made it costly for others to draft