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View Full Version : Should the Reds Exercise Orlando Cabrera's Option?



camisadelgolf
09-27-2010, 03:27 PM
Orlando Cabrera received a $1.5M signing bonus in addition to a $770k salary this year. By that math, I think you could easily argue that he has been overpaid this year. As for next year, there is a $4.0M mutual option, and if he exercises it--and I think it's safe to say he will--the Reds can pay $1.0M to decline the option or a total of $4.0M to accept it. In other words, should the Reds bring Cabrera into the 2011 fold at a cost of $3.0M?

Earlier in the year, I would've said, "No way!" But during his recent hot streak, I became a little unsure. On one hand, he offers that mysterious veteran presence his teammates claim to be so vital to their success. On the other hand, although he doesn't destroyed the team with his performance, he hasn't helped it much either--at least in regards to quantifiable stats.

His OBP is the worst it has been in a decade, and his slugging is worse than ever. Seeing as how he's 35 years old, it's unlikely that he will improve on those numbers next year. His defense was horrible in 2009, and although it has improved significantly, it has been only average at best in 2010, so it looks like there isn't much reason to hope for an improvement on that front either.

Overall, we're talking about using $3.0M to keep a potentially-average-at-best shortstop on the roster. That's the ceiling, and the floor is pretty low. The long term effects of keeping him around might not be too difficult to overcome, but is it really worth the risk? I don't think so. People will say that Paul Janish and Zack Cozart can come in and replace O-Cab's production with ease, but I'm not convinced of that. I'm all for buying out the contract, but I wouldn't feel 100% comfortable with that unless a safer bet for a successful 2011 were brought in.

Brutus
09-27-2010, 03:29 PM
Simple answer: nope.

Appreciate the contributions he's made to the clubhouse. He's been solid at short, even if his range is lacking. But he's only going to continue to trend downward. Let Janish start next year unless an upgrade is found this offseason.

camisadelgolf
09-27-2010, 03:32 PM
I considered adding a third option. Should the Reds accept his option only in the event that an improvement to Janish/Cozart can't be found?

RedsManRick
09-27-2010, 03:32 PM
It's a pretty easy no from me. From a performance angle, he's not notably better than Janish right now and likely to decline some. You'd basically be paying $4M for leadership, quite the luxury.

Add in that Cozart either is ready or should soon be ready as a backup, to say nothing of Valaika, and it makes even less sense.

camisadelgolf
09-27-2010, 03:43 PM
If you're interested in filling the void with a free agent, here are your major options:

Juan Castro (39)
Alex Gonzalez (33) - $2.5MM club option
Cesar Izturis (31)
Derek Jeter (37)
Julio Lugo (35)
Jhonny Peralta (29) - $7MM club option with a $250K buyout
Nick Punto (33) - $5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Edgar Renteria (35)
Jose Reyes (28) - $11MM club option with a $500K buyout
Miguel Tejada (37)
Juan Uribe (31)
Omar Vizquel (44)

TRF
09-27-2010, 04:01 PM
I bet the Mets pay the buyout. But Reyes health concerns me. Tejada is no longer a SS. Vizquel will likely retire. Peralta is a 3B at best now. Lugo? nope.

I don't think FA is an option for SS. A trade is possible. More than likely it's Janish with Cozart as his caddy until it is the other way around.

Brutus
09-27-2010, 04:07 PM
I bet the Mets pay the buyout. But Reyes health concerns me. Tejada is no longer a SS. Vizquel will likely retire. Peralta is a 3B at best now. Lugo? nope.

I don't think FA is an option for SS. A trade is possible. More than likely it's Janish with Cozart as his caddy until it is the other way around.

There's no way the Reds will have Cozart on the roster to be a backup. No use in using his service up so he can be a role player. He'll stay in AAA until/unless he beats out Janish for the job. That might happen in spring training, but if it doesn't, I believe he'll start the year in AAA since Valaika can be their middle infield sub.

PuffyPig
09-27-2010, 04:08 PM
I'm going by memory, but Cabrerra's OPS is still quite a bit less than .700, though trending upwards.

Considering Janish's defense, he would be better than Cabrerra with an OPS in the low .600's. And his is quite north of .700, though I doubt he could keep it there for a full season.

But Janish is likely> Cabrerra without factoing in costs. Factoring in costs makes it a no brainer.

Griffey012
09-27-2010, 04:15 PM
Right now I say no, but it will depend on off-season discussions and where the orginaztion stands on Janish and Cozart. It also depends on how the Reds do in the post-season, if we make it to the WS or better yet win, I just don't see it plausible to not bring him back, you may just have to let it be known he won't be playing everyday.

TRF
09-27-2010, 04:27 PM
There's no way the Reds will have Cozart on the roster to be a backup. No use in using his service up so he can be a role player. He'll stay in AAA until/unless he beats out Janish for the job. That might happen in spring training, but if it doesn't, I believe he'll start the year in AAA since Valaika can be their middle infield sub.

Chris Heisey says hi.

Of course they would. And if in the course of the beginning of the season Janish falter offensively, then Cozart has had the benefit of 30+ AB's to get his feet wet. win-win.

Sea Ray
09-27-2010, 04:32 PM
It's a pretty easy no from me. From a performance angle, he's not notably better than Janish right now and likely to decline some. You'd basically be paying $4M for leadership, quite the luxury.

Add in that Cozart either is ready or should soon be ready as a backup, to say nothing of Valaika, and it makes even less sense.

I agree. This is the sort of luxury a team like the Reds can't afford. It's stuff like this that differentiates between the haves and have nots in MLB.

I also don't think he'll be able to play a decent major league caliber SS next year and stay healthy. Know when to hold 'em...etc

edabbs44
09-27-2010, 04:37 PM
A very unscientific study, it seems to me that some of pro Janish guys are also pro Heisey. To those who are pro Janish as starter for 2010, would that change your opinion on LF?

Kc61
09-27-2010, 04:39 PM
So, many fans want to jettison Gomes, Cabrera, Hernandez, Nix, Arroyo, Cordero, Rhodes. Except for Rolen, pretty much the consensus seems to be that the veterans "aren't worth it."

We really do like our young players, don't we?

I don't think the Reds would be in the playoffs without most of those veteran guys. I think some fans constantly sell veterans short and exaggerate the ability of prospects to win at the big league level.

I think Cabrera will be back, although the Reds might try to negotiate with him on price. I don't think the Reds plan to go with Janish, Valaika, and Cozart in the middle infield with Phillips. I think they will want a veteran like OCab in there.

Brutus
09-27-2010, 04:41 PM
Chris Heisey says hi.

Of course they would. And if in the course of the beginning of the season Janish falter offensively, then Cozart has had the benefit of 30+ AB's to get his feet wet. win-win.

Chris Heisey was recalled because Chris Dickerson went on the DL and the Reds had no other OF options on the 40-man roster.

That's not the situation the Reds are in with Cozart. They don't have any reason to bring him up unless he's going to start.

Roy Tucker
09-27-2010, 05:00 PM
Nah. I like his veteran presence, but $4M is a lot to pay for that.

If they could re-negotiate the $4M and declare SS open for competition next spring (instead of just handing it to Cabrera like this year) and Cabrera would be willing to be the utility infielder and not the starting SS, I might think about it.

I think Janish's time has come in 2011. The month he ably filled in for Cabrera sealed it IMO. And I think Cozart in 2011 might be this year's Janish. Let's move the kids along here.

RED VAN HOT
09-27-2010, 05:08 PM
For me it is yes. Has OC performed worse than expected when he was signed? Probably not. Has Cozart performed better at AAA than many of us expected? Probably not. The safe bet is to go the additional year of OC, giving Janish more starts and giving Cozart more time at AAA. In 2012 make the transition to Cozart. After that, the pipeline at SS looks good. The long term solution should come from within the organization.

Hoosier Red
09-27-2010, 05:17 PM
Chris Heisey says hi.

Of course they would. And if in the course of the beginning of the season Janish falter offensively, then Cozart has had the benefit of 30+ AB's to get his feet wet. win-win.

I think the difference is the Reds next year will have a number of MI guys who can play the position (perhaps not as well as Cozart) who they seem to project to be utility guys in the big leagues anyway like Valiaika and Frazier. If those options aren't good enough, it will be a veteran MI like Cairo to make the team at least initially. If for some reason the injury bug is more severe Cozart can come up, but I only bring him up if I expect him to start. Even if he'll only be starting during the time Janish is hurt.

Razor Shines
09-27-2010, 05:22 PM
I still think Janish should be the starter now and for most of the playoffs. He had a nice little hot streak when he came back from his injury but he's been pretty bad lately. At this point in his career he's just a sub .700 bat, some will claim that Janish is as well, I disagree, but even if he is Paul is still a superior defender and should get most of the playing time. I think Janish at SS gives the Reds' pitchers the best chance to win in the post season. I like having OC on the team for the playoffs, but he can be a leader in a back up role.

TRF
09-27-2010, 05:38 PM
I don't think Cozart at AAA is what is best for Cozart or the Reds. If he has a Janish like season of about 200 AB's, that's actually fine. Makes the team defense even better than it is now. If Janish's numbers this year are a mirage (I don't think they are) then he gets the exposure to major league pitching he needs. He's got nothing left to prove at AAA.

If Dusty is re-signed, AND OCab's option is not picked up, I won't be surprised to see Janish as the starter and Cozart the supersub.

Brutus
09-27-2010, 05:46 PM
I don't think Cozart at AAA is what is best for Cozart or the Reds. If he has a Janish like season of about 200 AB's, that's actually fine. Makes the team defense even better than it is now. If Janish's numbers this year are a mirage (I don't think they are) then he gets the exposure to major league pitching he needs. He's got nothing left to prove at AAA.

If Dusty is re-signed, AND OCab's option is not picked up, I won't be surprised to see Janish as the starter and Cozart the supersub.

I'll make a friendly wager that Cozart will not be with the Reds to start the season unless he's the starter.

SirFelixCat
09-27-2010, 06:06 PM
Nah. I like his veteran presence, but $4M is a lot to pay for that.

If they could re-negotiate the $4M and declare SS open for competition next spring (instead of just handing it to Cabrera like this year) and Cabrera would be willing to be the utility infielder and not the starting SS, I might think about it.

I think Janish's time has come in 2011. The month he ably filled in for Cabrera sealed it IMO. And I think Cozart in 2011 might be this year's Janish. Let's move the kids along here.

I was going to write something very similar. This is exactly how I feel about it. And I really agree, also, with Cozart being this year's Janish, subbing at 2B, SS, and 3B.

Will M
09-27-2010, 06:32 PM
1) i don't know what the payroll will be for 2011

2) i also don't know how big the raises will be for guys like Votto, Bruce, Cueto & Volquez

3) therefore i don't know how much 'payroll flexibility' we have. all that being said, i expect we won't have millions of dollars to toss around

In my mind Janish is a perfectly servicable starting shortstop. Is he great? heck no. but he can field the position & has hit decently this year.
He is a 0.9 WAR player in 213 PAs.

if i were Walt i would search high & low for a LEFT HANDED batter who can play 3B/SS/2B for next year. the six Reds infielders could be...
1B Votto
2B Phillips
SS Janish
3B Rolen
UIF left handed hitter as above
UIF Frazier, Valaika, Cairo brought back on the cheap, etc

Where is Cozart? well if he beats out Janish he is the starter at SS. or maybe he wins the RH bench spot. or he starts 2011 in AAA in case Janish struggles in an everyday role. depth is good.

OldXOhio
09-27-2010, 06:36 PM
If you're interested in filling the void with a free agent, here are your major options:

Juan Castro (39)
Alex Gonzalez (33) - $2.5MM club option
Cesar Izturis (31)
Derek Jeter (37)
Julio Lugo (35)
Jhonny Peralta (29) - $7MM club option with a $250K buyout
Nick Punto (33) - $5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Edgar Renteria (35)
Jose Reyes (28) - $11MM club option with a $500K buyout
Miguel Tejada (37)
Juan Uribe (31)
Omar Vizquel (44)

Give the job to Janish. Seek offensive upgrades elsewhere with the $$ not spent on OCab.

IslandRed
09-27-2010, 07:39 PM
I wouldn't bring back Cabrera at that price. However, I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see a different (cheaper) veteran brought in, maybe on a NRI deal, just to provide depth/competition for Janish and Cozart. I still don't like Janish's bat over a full season, and I think the Reds are pretty sure they know who he is at this point, good or bad. So I think their views on Cozart's talent and timetable is what's going to drive their decision-making.

reds44
09-27-2010, 07:53 PM
I like OC, but that's a lot of money to being pay him for his production. If we can bring him back for less somehow, I'd be willing to do that.

VR
09-27-2010, 08:35 PM
It's excited to see the stable of young talent the Reds have....enabling them to consider parting with guys like Harang/ Cordero/ Gomes/ Cabrera.... not because of expense cutting......but because they have so many other/ better options that are less expensive.

HokieRed
09-27-2010, 09:04 PM
I think Phillips is set to make 11, O Cab would make, in effect, 3. That's 14 million. I'm wondering if there's not a more creative way to get a better MI combo for that money. This is by way of saying it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Walt pull a big deal this year involving next year's SS, 2b, and LF.

Will M
09-27-2010, 10:04 PM
I think Phillips is set to make 11, O Cab would make, in effect, 3. That's 14 million. I'm wondering if there's not a more creative way to get a better MI combo for that money. This is by way of saying it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Walt pull a big deal this year involving next year's SS, 2b, and LF.

IMO Walt needs to make a deal or two this winter. We have some surplus at certain positions yet needs elsewhere. I agree that a deal could help.
who to trade:
Janish or Cozart
Alonso if he or Votto can't play LF
Heisey?
Francisco if we could get value
maybe Bailey if we could get a solid SS or left fielder back

edabbs44
09-27-2010, 10:07 PM
IMO Walt needs to make a deal or two this winter. We have some surplus at certain positions yet needs elsewhere. I agree that a deal could help.
who to trade:
Janish or Cozart
Alonso if he or Votto can't play LF
Heisey?
Francisco if we could get value
maybe Bailey if we could get a solid SS or left fielder back

I would think that the only ones with any material trade value would be Homer or Alonso.

Will M
09-27-2010, 10:44 PM
I would think that the only ones with any material trade value would be Homer or Alonso.

sure.

my point is that we could use a power bat for left or an upgrade at SS over Janish/Cozart. i doubt Bob is going to cough up tons of cash for Werth or Crawford, therefore a trade may be in order.

What I would try....

Votto, Phillips, Janish or Cozart, Rolen, ______, Stubbs, Bruce & Hernandez as the starters.

Bench:
Hanigan
RH IF bat (Valaika, Frazier, maybe Cairo brought back cheaply)
_____________ (LH hitter who can play 2b/SS/3b)
Heisey
Nix (LH bench bat/5th outfielder)

SP: Cueto, Arroyo, Volquez, Wood, Leake or Chapman (with the odd man out in the pen) & poor Matt Maloney in AAA or maybe in the pen

RP: Cordero :(, Masset, Ondrusek, Smith, maybe Bray, maybe a cheap vet to replace Rhodes or maybe bring back Rhodes, possibly LeCure/Fisher

That leaves Alonso & Bailey as the main bait for a left fielder or an upgrade at SS. The return on Bailey would need to be pretty big. I wouldn't give him away. Even if he were the odd man out in the rotation i think he could be a pretty fine late inning reliever.

what i'd love to see: keep everyone. depth is good. a seven deep rotation would be pretty sweet & sure help is someone goes down. plus Bronson is gone after 2011. get Werth or Crawford for LF. go with a glove at SS (Janish/Cozart) since you now have a mean 3-4-5 punch with Votto-Werth-Bruce.

what i don't want to see: some weak band-aid in left field for 2011. or overpaying for Cabrera when he isn't likely to be better than in house options

HokieRed
09-27-2010, 10:51 PM
No way I trade Homer. Exactly the wrong time to do so.

edabbs44
09-27-2010, 10:57 PM
sure.

my point is that we could use a power bat for left or an upgrade at SS over Janish/Cozart. i doubt Bob is going to cough up tons of cash for Werth or Crawford, therefore a trade may be in order.

What I would try....

Votto, Phillips, Janish or Cozart, Rolen, ______, Stubbs, Bruce & Hernandez as the starters.

Bench:
Hanigan
RH IF bat (Valaika, Frazier, maybe Cairo brought back cheaply)
_____________ (LH hitter who can play 2b/SS/3b)
Heisey
Nix (LH bench bat/5th outfielder)

SP: Cueto, Arroyo, Volquez, Wood, Leake or Chapman (with the odd man out in the pen) & poor Matt Maloney in AAA or maybe in the pen

RP: Cordero :(, Masset, Ondrusek, Smith, maybe Bray, maybe a cheap vet to replace Rhodes or maybe bring back Rhodes, possibly LeCure/Fisher

That leaves Alonso & Bailey as the main bait for a left fielder or an upgrade at SS. The return on Bailey would need to be pretty big. I wouldn't give him away. Even if he were the odd man out in the rotation i think he could be a pretty fine late inning reliever.

what i'd love to see: keep everyone. depth is good. a seven deep rotation would be pretty sweet & sure help is someone goes down. plus Bronson is gone after 2011. get Werth or Crawford for LF. go with a glove at SS (Janish/Cozart) since you now have a mean 3-4-5 punch with Votto-Werth-Bruce.

what i don't want to see: some weak band-aid in left field for 2011. or overpaying for Cabrera when he isn't likely to be better than in house options

That bench has zero pop. Instead of the LH infielder, you could use CI with a decent stick.

dunner13
09-27-2010, 10:58 PM
I think we should pick up his option. Heres my reasoning why
1. Like every team this guy has been on has made the playoffs. All the players point to him as one of the leaders on the team. I realize leadership probably isnt worth 4 million but I want to make the playoffs next year.
2. He gives some insurance. I would tell him, your starting the year out as the starter but were grooming cozart for this spot. Janish is a nice glove but I dont see his bat being good enough, Cozart on the other hand does it all. So bring Cozart up in june and have him split time with OC.
3. 4 million really isnt alot of money. To have the insurance of a veteran player who is a great clubhouse leader and can really help alot of our younger players to me is worth it. There are alot of teams that have tons of young talent that dont win because they have nobody to lead them and help them get through the grind of a season. To me thats the real value of OC, Rolen and Edmonds.

WVRedsFan
09-27-2010, 11:57 PM
I think we should pick up his option. Heres my reasoning why
1. Like every team this guy has been on has made the playoffs. All the players point to him as one of the leaders on the team. I realize leadership probably isnt worth 4 million but I want to make the playoffs next year.
2. He gives some insurance. I would tell him, your starting the year out as the starter but were grooming cozart for this spot. Janish is a nice glove but I dont see his bat being good enough, Cozart on the other hand does it all. So bring Cozart up in june and have him split time with OC.
3. 4 million really isnt alot of money. To have the insurance of a veteran player who is a great clubhouse leader and can really help alot of our younger players to me is worth it. There are alot of teams that have tons of young talent that dont win because they have nobody to lead them and help them get through the grind of a season. To me thats the real value of OC, Rolen and Edmonds.This.

Mark my words, Janish is Leo Cardenas with much less pop (you old timers will understand). He's a defensive replacement. Cozart is an unproven prospect, so the stability of OCab is important if we plan to contend next year and years after. The $4 million is not an issue when you consider the money we're spending on some of the players.

According to this board, it's always the youngsters, but without OCab and Rolen, this team would not be headed to the playoffs (I hope).

OnBaseMachine
09-28-2010, 12:05 AM
According to this board, it's always the youngsters, but without OCab and Rolen, this team would not be headed to the playoffs (I hope).

Rolen? I agree. Cabrera? The Reds could have won without him. Cabrera has a .654 OPS this season (.283 BABIP, 5.1 BB%, 10.7 K%). Paul Janish has a .747 OPS (.290 BABIP, 9.9 BB%, 15.0 K%). Not to mention, Janish has better range and a stronger arm. I like Cabrera, I really do. He seems like a great dude and as I mentioned before, he was one of my favorite players in the game when he was with the Expos, but I believe the Reds could have won without him.

The only way I would bring him back next season is if he'll sign on as a utility player at a cheaper deal.

edabbs44
09-28-2010, 07:45 AM
Rolen? I agree. Cabrera? The Reds could have won without him. Cabrera has a .654 OPS this season (.283 BABIP, 5.1 BB%, 10.7 K%). Paul Janish has a .747 OPS (.290 BABIP, 9.9 BB%, 15.0 K%). Not to mention, Janish has better range and a stronger arm. I like Cabrera, I really do. He seems like a great dude and as I mentioned before, he was one of my favorite players in the game when he was with the Expos, but I believe the Reds could have won without him.

The only way I would bring him back next season is if he'll sign on as a utility player at a cheaper deal.

I think it is fairly apparent that Cabrera's value extends beyond his numbers. When the players and FO are both talking about the value someone provides that wouldn't show up in the boxscore, I think it makes sense to listen. If I am not mistaken, Votto had a lot to say about Cabrera a while back. If Joey Votto sat down with you and said that Cabrera was a great influence on the team and made them better, would you scoff at him?

Griffey012
09-28-2010, 08:08 AM
I think we should pick up his option. Heres my reasoning why
1. Like every team this guy has been on has made the playoffs. All the players point to him as one of the leaders on the team. I realize leadership probably isnt worth 4 million but I want to make the playoffs next year.


I agree, many will say "small sample size" or that its a statistical anomaly. I agree, he brings a lot to the table that doesn't show up in OPS and WAR, but a ton of people will never see that because Sabermetrics believes there is no such thing as the mental or emotional aspect of the game.

TRF
09-28-2010, 09:12 AM
I'll make a friendly wager that Cozart will not be with the Reds to start the season unless he's the starter.

Hmm. Winner picks the losers sig for the 2011 season?

_Sir_Charles_
09-28-2010, 09:23 AM
I voted no. I like Cabrera though. After his legs losened up after the first month or so, he played pretty decently. However, Paul out played him in my opinion. Cozart should be ready some time next season (not sure if he'll be ready out of ST though). I'd rather use some of the money to sign some of our more needed players. There's some guy who's name starts with a V or something. :O)

nate
09-28-2010, 09:35 AM
I agree, many will say "small sample size" or that its a statistical anomaly. I agree, he brings a lot to the table that doesn't show up in OPS and WAR, but a ton of people will never see that because Sabermetrics believes there is no such thing as the mental or emotional aspect of the game.

His intangibles don't bring more to the table than his production. At best...and this is the very best...his intangibles might provide a 5% boost in "something."

He's not worth it at $4mm. Maybe $1mm and a part-time role. Or spend it elsewhere. Surely, O-Cab isn't the only baseball player available who can provide what he provides.

dunner13
09-28-2010, 09:42 AM
I do think to bring him back at the 4 million you have to get him to agree to help groom cozart for the job. And thats going to mean hes not going to get more then 300 at bats. If hes ok with that and he can help cozart and be a leader in the clubhouse I bring him back. If hes going to say that he wants to play everyday and hes going to have a bad attitude if he doesnt get to then you have to let him walk.

bucksfan2
09-28-2010, 10:32 AM
I agree, many will say "small sample size" or that its a statistical anomaly. I agree, he brings a lot to the table that doesn't show up in OPS and WAR, but a ton of people will never see that because Sabermetrics believes there is no such thing as the mental or emotional aspect of the game.

I agree with you on this. I think O Cab brought a lot to the team that you don't see directly in the box score. I have yet to hear or read a report that didn't praise O Cab. I have yet to hear a player talk bad about O Cab. I for one don't think the Reds are where they are right now without O Cab. Pennant chases are an entire different animal and it is a benefit to have a player on your roster who has been through them year after year after year.

Say what you want about Walt and the Reds organization but going into this season they didn't feel Janish was the answer at SS. Walt seems to prefer someone who has been there before and performed at a high level over an unproven rookie. And to be honest except for RZ I haven't heard elsewhere anyone suggesting Janish play over Cabrera. I do think that Janish has played well enough to compete for the starting SS job next season, but want nothing to do with a switch right now.

As for the option I voted no. That said I would welcome O Cab back with open arms at a more discounted rate. I wouldn't really feel comfortable heading into ST with Cozart as the backup SS. I don't like counting on unproven minor leaguers to contribute right away at the major league level. Heisey may be a good example of that. When he got regular playing time down the stretch of the season he was exposed by major league pitching. I want the Reds to upgrade the LF position as the #1 priority and then address the SS position. If they do upgrade LF then I have no issues with Janish/Cozart. If they go into the 2011 season with Gomes/Heisey in LF then I do have an issue with SS.

Ron Madden
09-28-2010, 10:49 AM
I voted no, $4M is just too steep of a price tag for an aging Orlando Cabrera.

bucksfan2
09-28-2010, 10:52 AM
His intangibles don't bring more to the table than his production. At best...and this is the very best...his intangibles might provide a 5% boost in "something."

He's not worth it at $4mm. Maybe $1mm and a part-time role. Or spend it elsewhere. Surely, O-Cab isn't the only baseball player available who can provide what he provides.

Where did the 5% number come from?

Sea Ray
09-28-2010, 11:10 AM
I think it is fairly apparent that Cabrera's value extends beyond his numbers. When the players and FO are both talking about the value someone provides that wouldn't show up in the boxscore, I think it makes sense to listen. If I am not mistaken, Votto had a lot to say about Cabrera a while back. If Joey Votto sat down with you and said that Cabrera was a great influence on the team and made them better, would you scoff at him?

His intangibles did help this team a great deal this year, but they have to grow up at some point. They can't afford to keep Ocab just for the intangible factor.

I think a better question is: who is in favor of bringing him back as the fulltime starter?

If he's making $3-4mill and Dusty is the manager, he's starting

edabbs44
09-28-2010, 11:25 AM
I just looked Janish up on fangraphs and noticed that his uzr took a beating after playing mostly full time in August. He is now negative value in fielding in 2010.

Uh oh.

edabbs44
09-28-2010, 11:27 AM
Repeat

_Sir_Charles_
09-28-2010, 12:13 PM
His range is still top notch as is his cannon for an arm. But I recall that stretch of playing, and there were like 3 straight games where he committed an "error". Some were quite questionable, but still...those errors are going to kill his defensive stats, right?

OnBaseMachine
09-28-2010, 12:23 PM
Janish is a better defender than Cabrera at this point. It's not even close, IMO. I've been less than impressed with Cabrera's range this season. A few years ago he was one of the best defensive shortstops in the game but his range has really declined in the last few years based on what I've seen.

nate
09-28-2010, 01:06 PM
Where did the 5% number come from?

It's my opinion.

Mainly because, I would guess that we can can measure the other 90-95%. In any event, in now way, shape or form does it approach half or more.

edabbs44
09-28-2010, 01:14 PM
His range is still top notch as is his cannon for an arm. But I recall that stretch of playing, and there were like 3 straight games where he committed an "error". Some were quite questionable, but still...those errors are going to kill his defensive stats, right?

I would have to guess that errors would impact defensive statistics in some sort of negative manner.

edabbs44
09-28-2010, 01:26 PM
It's my opinion.

Mainly because, I would guess that we can can measure the other 90-95%. In any event, in now way, shape or form does it approach half or more.

Not sure that I agree. A perfect example might be Jim Edmonds. If he truly had such an effect on Jay Bruce that turned his season around, can we actually say that we can just add 5% to his numbers? In this case, we would need to add about 5000% as a starting point.

bucksfan2
09-28-2010, 01:32 PM
It's my opinion.

Mainly because, I would guess that we can can measure the other 90-95%. In any event, in now way, shape or form does it approach half or more.

Ok. I was just curious because most of the time you throw out numbers there is a precise reason for that.

I think the actual impact is a much larger percentage but is also much more difficult to define. There are too many moving and fluid parts to a baseball season that its difficult to assign a proper value to someone's intangible impact.

Roy Tucker
09-28-2010, 03:34 PM
It's my opinion.

Mainly because, I would guess that we can can measure the other 90-95%. In any event, in now way, shape or form does it approach half or more.

Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.

;)

_Sir_Charles_
09-28-2010, 04:13 PM
I would have to guess that errors would impact defensive statistics in some sort of negative manner.

Well, he was talking about UZR and I didn't know if that factored in errors or not. I thought that one just measured range or something. Oh well. Back to our regularly scheduled posting.

Degenerate39
09-28-2010, 04:16 PM
Is Cozart ready to be the starting SS at the ML level? How's he compare to Janish?

Kc61
09-28-2010, 04:25 PM
Is Cozart ready to be the starting SS at the ML level? How's he compare to Janish?

Hard to compare because Cozart had 553 official at bats at AAA. Janish has had 187 at bats in the NL. So Cozart has a much larger sample but in the minor leagues.

Cozart had .255 BA/.310 OBP/.416 SLG/.726 OPS.
Janish had .267 BA/.346 OBP/.401 SLG/.747 OPS.

IMO Reds will be reluctant to start either of them at SS next year. Cabrera or a different veteran will start.

I think Cozart could find himself at AAA next year to work on that .310 OBP.

BRM
09-28-2010, 04:25 PM
Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.

;)

Now that's an awesome analogy. Kudos.

nate
09-28-2010, 08:11 PM
Ok. I was just curious because most of the time you throw out numbers there is a precise reason for that.

I think the actual impact is a much larger percentage but is also much more difficult to define. There are too many moving and fluid parts to a baseball season that its difficult to assign a proper value to someone's intangible impact.

5% sounded like a small number, therefore small = 5%.

It's a small number, it's certainly nowhere near approaching a majority.

Unless we're talking about Corky Miller.

:cool:

RedsManRick
09-28-2010, 09:55 PM
Well, he was talking about UZR and I didn't know if that factored in errors or not. I thought that one just measured range or something. Oh well. Back to our regularly scheduled posting.

UZR gives you credit/penalty based on how many other players make that play. So an error on a ball most guys turn in to an out will ding your UZR pretty badly. But an error on a ball that most guys don't even get to won't hurt you much at all.

bucksfan2
09-28-2010, 10:36 PM
UZR gives you credit/penalty based on how many other players make that play. So an error on a ball most guys turn in to an out will ding your UZR pretty badly. But an error on a ball that most guys don't even get to won't hurt you much at all.

Aren't most errors made on routine balls? Occasionally you will have a great play that results in a throwing error, but very rarely do you see a very rangey play result in an error.

buckeyenut
09-30-2010, 01:08 PM
While I can live with Janish and Cozart, I would personally take a hard look at bringing Reyes in. I'd offer him 3 year 30M and see if he bites. Hopefully if we make the playoffs as well as let Harang walk, we'd have the money to do something like this.

Janish as MI backup, Reyes at SS, Heisey in LF, Gomes and Nix off the bench and I am a happy camper.

edabbs44
09-30-2010, 01:25 PM
While I can live with Janish and Cozart, I would personally take a hard look at bringing Reyes in. I'd offer him 3 year 30M and see if he bites. Hopefully if we make the playoffs as well as let Harang walk, we'd have the money to do something like this.

Janish as MI backup, Reyes at SS, Heisey in LF, Gomes and Nix off the bench and I am a happy camper.

I cannot get the image of him dancing after homering during one of the classic Mets collapses. No thank you.

RedsManRick
09-30-2010, 02:16 PM
Aren't most errors made on routine balls? Occasionally you will have a great play that results in a throwing error, but very rarely do you see a very rangey play result in an error.

Most? Probably. But it's less consistent than you think. Especially for a SS, positioning can make a massive difference. Some plays that look routine are made less often than you think and vice versa.

We should consider that there are two "types of error" when giving a guy an errors:
Type 1 error: Give a guy an error on a play he shouldn't have made to begin with.
Type 2 error: Fail to give a guy an error on a play he should have made.

We're much more attuned to type 1, the situation you describe, than to type 2.

For instance, a few years back Jeter couldn't move to his left well at all. Many balls up the middle scooted just under his glove. It looked like it would have taken a great play for him to get there, so few people mentally dinged him for those plays (let alone actually give him an error). It's really hard to keep a consistent mental image of what "average" looks like in the face of an actual player making (or not making) an actual play.

But in reality, those were plays that most SS would have made. You could probably have given him "errors" on any number of those balls, but he wasn't given an error because he didn't get there. So his fielding percentage looked great. "He made all the routine plays" you might say. But in reality, he didn't.

NJReds
10-12-2010, 10:26 AM
I think at this point the Reds are better off letting Janish/Cozart battle for the position. I wouldn't mind seeing a guy like Juan Uribe brought in to backup 2B/SS/3B (espcially for Rolen, who probably won't start more than 120 games).

mace
10-12-2010, 10:43 AM
I haven't voted because I'm torn on this one. For me, the best solution would be to sign Cabrera and use him as the backup at both SS and 3B. I'd like to see him start about 60 games at short, behind Janish, and 40-50 at third, spelling Rolen. But on the other hand, there are four problems with this.

1. It holds Cozart back. I suspect he's probably ready--if not in April, at least by around June.

2. It holds Francisco back. I tend to think that Francisco is the ideal guy to mix in with Rolen at third, because he's left-handed, cheap and powerful.

3. An extra $3 million is quite a bit to play for a guy off the bench. Although, between his playing time and his presence, I think it could be justified.

And 4. Dusty would most likely retain him as the starting SS, if he were available. (Not a knock on Dusty. Just the way it appears.)

So I guess I talked myself into a no.

Redsfan320
10-12-2010, 10:47 AM
Juan Castro (39)
Alex Gonzalez (33) - $2.5MM club option
Cesar Izturis (31)
Derek Jeter (37)
Julio Lugo (35)
Jhonny Peralta (29) - $7MM club option with a $250K buyout
Nick Punto (33) - $5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Edgar Renteria (35)
Jose Reyes (28) - $11MM club option with a $500K buyout
Miguel Tejada (37)
Juan Uribe (31)
Omar Vizquel (44)

Not only did he have a .615 OPS this year, I don't think he plays SS, just 2B and 3B. But he could probably make the change.

320

camisadelgolf
10-12-2010, 10:49 AM
Yeah, that 1% of me that said, "Maybe Cabrera is worth it," is already gone.

Jason Bartlett is hitting his last year of arbitration, and the Rays always seem looking to slash payroll. Besides, they might like Reid Brignac more anyway.

Jack Wilson is due $5M in Seattle next year, which makes him almost as overpaid as Cabrera, but he plays better defense and has more offensive upside. I've always wanted to see what he could do in GABP. Maybe the Reds could offer Juan Francisco for Wilson and cash.

REDREAD
10-12-2010, 11:09 AM
Well, since we have the 1 million buyout, as the original post said, bringing back Caberera only costs us 3 million.

We've seen that there's not much help in the FA front.

If Walt is willing to trade prospects for an upgrade to SS, then by all means, cut OCab loose..

However, the Reds are going to try to win next year. They are going to need more than Janish and Cozart at SS. If the past 15 years have not taught us that a below average SS drags the team down, I am not sure what will convince us. I agree OCab is not a superstar. I agree that he does not take many walks, but his batting average was valuable at the top of the lineup for a good chunk of the season. No guarantee he will repeat that, of course.

Right now, for 3 million, I don't see the point in losing depth at SS, unless Walt can bring in someone better. To me, whether OCab costs us 3 million or 500k is not an issue. We are going to try to contend next year. It's a pretty big risk handing the job over on a full time basis to Janish with Cozart being the only contingency plan. Not a risk I'd be comfortable with.

I'm hoping we can upgrade SS through trade. A good, young, and cheap SS that can field and hit is one of the rarest commodities in the sport. They tend to not be traded.

This reminds me a lot of the Gomes debate last offseason.. Sure, Gomes has warts, but until we get something better, it's kind of wise to hold on to him.

edabbs44
10-12-2010, 11:13 AM
Yeah, that 1% of me that said, "Maybe Cabrera is worth it," is already gone.

Jason Bartlett is hitting his last year of arbitration, and the Rays always seem looking to slash payroll. Besides, they might like Reid Brignac more anyway.

Jack Wilson is due $5M in Seattle next year, which makes him almost as overpaid as Cabrera, but he plays better defense and has more offensive upside. I've always wanted to see what he could do in GABP. Maybe the Reds could offer Juan Francisco for Wilson and cash.

I can't see Wilson providing any sort of upgrade over Cabrera.

blumj
10-12-2010, 11:14 AM
Not only did he have a .615 OPS this year, I don't think he plays SS, just 2B and 3B. But he could probably make the change.

320
Yeah, he plays SS, I don't think he's bad at it, although the Twins might have someone better if they didn't use him there this year. But he's a pretty bad offensive player even for a utility infielder.

RedsManRick
10-12-2010, 11:16 AM
I really don't see why you'd spend any money for a SS that's a marginal upgrade at best over Janish. That's not to say Janish is definitely the answer. Just that if you're going to commit resources to it, do it right.

Redsfan320
10-12-2010, 11:17 AM
Yeah, he plays SS, I don't think he's bad at it, although the Twins might have someone better if they didn't use him there this year. But he's a pretty bad offensive player even for a utility infielder.

FWIW, Twins had JJ Hardy there all year, after they got him from the Brew Crew last off-season.

320

blumj
10-12-2010, 11:32 AM
FWIW, Twins had JJ Hardy there all year, after they got him from the Brew Crew last off-season.

320
I looked it up, Hardy was hurt a couple of times, he started 95 games at SS, Punto 31, and some other guys played SS for them, too. Don't know if that was because they thought the other guys played SS better or just because he's such a poor excuse for a hitter. Either way, he isn't an upgrade over much, if anything.

camisadelgolf
10-12-2010, 01:21 PM
I really don't see why you'd spend any money for a SS that's a marginal upgrade at best over Janish. That's not to say Janish is definitely the answer. Just that if you're going to commit resources to it, do it right.
Depth. I like Cozart, but he's far from a sure thing and is likely to struggle as a rookie.

Johnny Footstool
10-12-2010, 02:11 PM
Juan Uribe (31)

Cabrera needs to be replaced.

If the Reds feel the need to sign a veteran to do so, then I think this is the guy. He shouldn't be very expensive (more than Cabrera, though), but he's younger and better than Cabrera in every way.

OnBaseMachine
10-13-2010, 11:47 PM
From Brad Johansen:

Jocketty on Cabrera option: "It's probably more than we want to exercise, we'll try to find a happy medium..if not Janish would be our SS"

http://twitter.com/bradjohansen

marcshoe
10-14-2010, 01:27 AM
That sounds about right.

Captain Hook
10-14-2010, 01:29 AM
The last four years there's been six teams that have added Cabrera hoping he could help them contend.In almost all those cases the team thanked Orlando for his services,then wished him luck with his team team.I'm hoping the Reds keep that trend going.

The Operator
10-14-2010, 01:36 AM
I'm ready for OC to move on. I especially didn't care for his comments blaming the umpire after Halladay's no hitter. It's LaRussa type whining and the last thing a "leader" should be doing.

I would love for The Reds to go out and acquire a guy like Stephen Drew but if there isn't anyone out there, Paul Janish is an okay option. I'm still not convinced his bat will hold up over a full season, but his glove is enough to keep him in there.

Ron Madden
10-14-2010, 03:21 AM
IMHO OCab was better defensively than I thought he would be but he's still not a very good defensive SS.

I'd love to see Walt cut ties with him but I believe Dusty will do everything in his power to convince Walt to pick up Cabrera's option.

Seems to me Dusty often favored starting an injured Orlando Cabrera over a healthy Paul Janish.

:(

GAC
10-14-2010, 05:35 AM
Give the job to Janish. Seek offensive upgrades elsewhere with the $$ not spent on OCab.

I lean that way, but you still need a viable backup at SS, and we don't have one at this stage if OCab is gone.

Personally, I think this FO will keep this team intact. Why? They just won 91 games and made it to the post-season with this squad. And I think for the most part they'll sit on their hands, and won't be big players in the FA market.

Pitching..... You're going to have a starting staff anchored by Arroyo, and the remainder of the candidates are still relatively young. A vast majority of pitchers who went on to have successful careers struggled in their first few years (ages 22-24) while learning the ropes and gaining maturity. So they'll stand pat in this area and show patience and see who is going to round out a rotation, that also includes Cueto and Voquez, among Wood, Bailey, Leake, and maybe even Chapman.

Outfield..... Bruce and Stubbs are pretty much givens. LF is the question mark. I'm not sure what Jocketty will do. I'm sure he'll look because we don't seem to have much in the way of options (depth) within the system as far as OFers go, other then Heisey and Nix. People may not like Gomes, and I agree with some of their assessments, but retaining him at the option 1.75M is still a bargain IMO. I look for Jocketty to try and strengthen the bench some what in this area.

It's still going to come down to the bottom line (payroll). After the buyout, they have 10.75M from Harang's departure. Count that money spent. You have two guys arb eligible in Votto and Bruce (possible arbitration guy as a Super 2). They be getting raises. Also, Phillip's salary next year jumps up 4.25M.

Hernandez had a $3.25 million vesting option that would have been guaranteed had he played 120 games. He played 97. He'll be back for one more year. A solid catching duo with Hanigan, while giving Mesoraco more time.

Lincoln won't be back, which saves them 2.5M. I think they'll resign Rhodes who made 2M last year.

I think they'll pick up the option on OCab simply because there aren't much options available to them either in the market or in their system. They aren't going to take that risk of handing the starting SS job to Janish. You'll see the same tandem in 2011 IMO.

Good article that addresses some of this, and talks about continuity...... http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101012&content_id=15590012&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin

sivman17
10-14-2010, 08:22 AM
ctrent:

Jocketty on Cabrera option: "It's probably more than we want to exercise, we'll try to find a happy medium..if not Janish would be our SS"

edabbs44
10-14-2010, 08:26 AM
I lean that way, but you still need a viable backup at SS, and we don't have one at this stage if OCab is gone.

Personally, I think this FO will keep this team intact. Why? They just won 91 games and made it to the post-season with this squad. And I think for the most part they'll sit on their hands, and won't be big players in the FA market.

Pitching..... You're going to have a starting staff anchored by Arroyo, and the remainder of the candidates are still relatively young. A vast majority of pitchers who went on to have successful careers struggled in their first few years (ages 22-24) while learning the ropes and gaining maturity. So they'll stand pat in this area and show patience and see who is going to round out a rotation, that also includes Cueto and Voquez, among Wood, Bailey, Leake, and maybe even Chapman.

Outfield..... Bruce and Stubbs are pretty much givens. LF is the question mark. I'm not sure what Jocketty will do. I'm sure he'll look because we don't seem to have much in the way of options (depth) within the system as far as OFers go, other then Heisey and Nix. People may not like Gomes, and I agree with some of their assessments, but retaining him at the option 1.75M is still a bargain IMO. I look for Jocketty to try and strengthen the bench some what in this area.

It's still going to come down to the bottom line (payroll). After the buyout, they have 10.75M from Harang's departure. Count that money spent. You have two guys arb eligible in Votto and Bruce (possible arbitration guy as a Super 2). They be getting raises. Also, Phillip's salary next year jumps up 4.25M.

Hernandez had a $3.25 million vesting option that would have been guaranteed had he played 120 games. He played 97. He'll be back for one more year. A solid catching duo with Hanigan, while giving Mesoraco more time.

Lincoln won't be back, which saves them 2.5M. I think they'll resign Rhodes who made 2M last year.

I think they'll pick up the option on OCab simply because there aren't much options available to them either in the market or in their system. They aren't going to take that risk of handing the starting SS job to Janish. You'll see the same tandem in 2011 IMO.

Good article that addresses some of this, and talks about continuity...... http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101012&content_id=15590012&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin

I think I agree with this. Unless something really comes up that improves the team at a reasonable price (either money or trade value) or someone's price (like Cabrera) is a little too much for what Walt is willing to pay, this may be what we see for next year.

Will M
10-14-2010, 01:54 PM
Either Janish or Cabrera is servicable as a bench guy. Neither is a starting shortstop on a team that is built to be a World Series contender. The team needs to find a better starter at SS & use Janish as the backup.

Even if the team goes the cheap route I'd rather try to find guys like Hairston, Darnell McDonald, Cairo or Nix to compete with guys like Valaika, Cozart, Frazier, Dorn, etc for bench spots. The team has been fairly successfull in the last few years finding these type of guys for bench roles.
Paying $2-3M for bench guys leaves the team short of cash for that one more solid everyday player we might need. Plus there is zero guarantee that if you pay player A $3M he will outperform player B who you paid $400K plus incentives. Find a guy or two trying to get one last shot & bring them in to compete with Cozart. The hope is that if Cozart needs more time in AAA one of these cheap guys can be the backup SS for a while.

One last thing. If Cabrera comes back he won't be a bench guy. He'll get way way too many starts.

Will M
10-15-2010, 02:59 AM
Fangraphs on Paul Janish:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/janish-time-in-cincinnati/

Griffey012
11-01-2010, 04:13 PM
I just came across this interesting stat. OC had a better UZR and UZR/150 this season than Janish. Just shows you how unreliable UZR can be as a stat. I know it is recommended to look at multiple seasons of UZR, but Janish is far and away better in the field than OC.

edabbs44
11-01-2010, 06:16 PM
I just came across this interesting stat. OC had a better UZR and UZR/150 this season than Janish. Just shows you how unreliable UZR can be as a stat. I know it is recommended to look at multiple seasons of UZR, but Janish is far and away better in the field than OC.

UZR...the stat that is gospel, until it doesn't jive with your position.

UZR...a cherrypicker's delight.

UZR...enjoy it while you can.

kaldaniels
11-01-2010, 06:24 PM
I just came across this interesting stat. OC had a better UZR and UZR/150 this season than Janish. Just shows you how unreliable UZR can be as a stat. I know it is recommended to look at multiple seasons of UZR, but Janish is far and away better in the field than OC.

Where did Nate go...haven't seen him in weeks.

This is where he normally chimes in with his "have to look at 3 years of UZR" remark. (he's right)

RedsManRick
11-01-2010, 06:47 PM
I just came across this interesting stat. OC had a better UZR and UZR/150 this season than Janish. Just shows you how unreliable UZR can be as a stat. I know it is recommended to look at multiple seasons of UZR, but Janish is far and away better in the field than OC.

UZR is a performance stat, meant to measurement how well a guy performed compared to his peers at the position. If player A had a .300 average and player B had a .290 average, but we're pretty sure player B is the better hitter, would we call batting average unreliable?

Both of these things can be true:
- OCab had a higher UZR than Janish in 2010
- Janish is a more skilled defender and will likely outperform OCab in the future.

The reason you take 3 years of UZR data is because it takes three years before fielders have enough chances to average out the random variation -- that is to say, for the better player to put up the better statistics most of the time. Less than that, and the randomness of things muddies the water too much to tell. A true talent .200 hitter can hit .350 over 150 PA -- and vice versa. Multiplying all that randomness to estimate the value over 150 games doesn't help. It's like projecting a guy who hits 5 homers in his first 50 PA to hit 60 HR over a full season. At that sample size, a full season projection should take 1 part current performance thus far and a whole bunch of parts of regression to what we knew about the guy's ability to hit HR coming in to the season.

Janish played in ~28% of the Reds defensive innings at SS in 2010 -- that's the equivalent of about 60 PA from a reliability perspective. Cabrera played in ~72%, the equivilent of about 150 PA. If you wouldn't use those samples to compare two hitters, you shouldn't use those samples to compare to fielders.

REDREAD
11-02-2010, 01:49 PM
Personally, I think this FO will keep this team intact. Why? They just won 91 games and made it to the post-season with this squad. And I think for the most part they'll sit on their hands, and won't be big players in the FA market.


I think there will be at least one notable trade. Most likely for an OF/SS or another position player.

The Reds have a pile of young talent, ready to trade. We have excess young starting pitching. We have Alonso, who has no position to play on this team in the near future.. A lot of young guys with pretty high trade value.. the time is now to pick the keepers and trade off the other ones to fill holes.