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Edskin
09-29-2010, 09:15 AM
I'm still giddy, and having a hard time focusing on the strategy or technicalities of what lies ahead-- just so thrilled it has finally happened, and honestly, regardless of who we play and when we play, I'll still be thrilled.

Having said that, we're in, so we might as well try to win this thing.

IMO, avoiding the Phillies trumps resting the veterans/setting the rotation. Not to be a Debbie Downer, but a short series vs. Philly right now (on the road) seems like a total nightmare. Anything can happen in baseball, but I'd put the Reds chances somewhere around 25% of winning that series.

On the other hand, if we were to play one of the west teams (with homefield) I might slightly favor us (55/45).

Bottom line, I want to give that second seed a real run. We are one game behind the Giants right now...if it becomes clear that we aren't going to catch them, then I'd be willing to back off.

I'm also OK with giving the REAL vets like Rolen and OCab time off regardless. But I don't want to mess with the rotation or sit guys like Votto, Stubbs, BP, etc.. until we see how things play out over the next few days.

No matter what, we're going to get at least two days off prior to the start of the post-season, which should be a decent rest for most of our core players. The difference between playing Philly or SD/SF/Atl is huge in my mind and worth going after.

Reds Fanatic
09-29-2010, 09:45 AM
I agree I can see them giving certain players a day off but generally I think they should keep playing as many regulars as possible. If they can get that 2nd seed they could possibly face Atlanta who I think the Reds match up very well against. That is huge difference having home field advantage against the Braves against having to face the Phillies starting on the road.

Currently the Reds are 1 game behind the Giants and the Giants have that big weekend series against the Padres who are starting to fall back. Does anyone know what the tiebreaker process is if the Giants and Reds would finish with the same record for the 2nd seed.

15fan
09-29-2010, 09:47 AM
Word.

Let someone else take a crack at the Halladay/Oswalt/Hamels trio first.

On a personal note, there are demons and painful memories from 1995 that I would love to exorcise in round 1.

Boss-Hog
09-29-2010, 09:55 AM
Unfortunately, we would lose it against them or NL playoff contenders, as it's based on head to head record. As a result, we have to finish at least a game better than the Giants (or less likely, the Pastes) to get the second seed.

edabbs44
09-29-2010, 09:55 AM
I think we see a big rest day today for a few reasons. One, day after clinching. Two, hangovers.

But most importantly I think Dusty has taken game matchups into account. Many times we'll see some of the key players take a blow when the matchup is in our favor. Today is Cueto vs Figueroa and tomorrow is Bronson vs Myers. I know which one I'd want the key guys playing in. Today's clinch special could squash any Sunday special lineup we've ever seen and Cincy may still get the W. But I'm guessing that tomorrow it is BAU since a watered down lineup would have a lot of trouble with Myers.

But I could be wrong. It wouldn't be the first time.

edabbs44
09-29-2010, 09:57 AM
Unfortunately, we would lose it against them or NL playoff contenders, as it's based on head to head record. As a result, we have to finish at least a game better than the Giants (or less likely, the Pastes) to get the second seed.

Or we need the Pads to take the WC. But I'd rather see the Braves in GABP.

Reds Fanatic
09-29-2010, 10:17 AM
Unfortunately, we would lose it against them or NL playoff contenders, as it's based on head to head record. As a result, we have to finish at least a game better than the Giants (or less likely, the Pastes) to get the second seed.

Since the Reds lose the tiebreaker if the Reds go 5-0 the rest of the way the Giants would need to go 3-2 for the Reds to get the 2nd seed. If the Reds go 4-1 the Giants would have to got 2-3.

Chances are not too good. The Reds would pretty much have to win out the rest of the way and then hope the Padres can take at least 2 of 3 this weekend from the Giants.

Dan
09-29-2010, 10:18 AM
Chances are we'll have to face the Phillies at some point. Why try to shy away from it? Yes, there's the chance the Pads or Giants could beat them, but if they don't, and the Reds advance, then what? Gotta face them anyway. Just do it and get it overwith already.

edabbs44
09-29-2010, 10:19 AM
Chances are we'll have to face the Phillies at some point. Why try to shy away from it? Yes, there's the chance the Pads or Giants could beat them, but if they don't, and the Reds advance, then what? Gotta face them anyway. Just do it and get it overwith already.

Would rather face them in a 7 game series than a 5 game series.

edabbs44
09-29-2010, 10:20 AM
Since the Reds lose the tiebreaker if the Reds go 5-0 the rest of the way the Giants would need to go 3-2 for the Reds to get the 2nd seed. If the Reds go 4-1 the Giants would have to got 2-3.

Chances are not too good. The Reds would pretty much have to win out the rest of the way and then hope the Padres can take at least 2 of 3 this weekend from the Giants.

Or hope Atlanta folds like a cheap suit.

GOYA
09-29-2010, 11:06 AM
The Reds have a losing record against every single post-season contender. Their best bet is to go into the playoffs as rested and ready as they can be, regardless of their opponent.

Benihana
09-29-2010, 11:13 AM
Word.

Let someone else take a crack at the Halladay/Oswalt/Hamels trio first.

On a personal note, there are demons and painful memories from 1995 that I would love to exorcise in round 1.

Yep. The 95 NLCS is tied for the most nightmarish postseason event in my lifetime along with Carson Palmer tearing his ACL in the Steelers playoff game and Kenyon Martin blowing out his knee in the 2000 C-USA Tournament. Two of those were career-threatening injuries to marquee players. One was a career-threatening performance by Reggie Sanders.

We need the Padres to sweep the Giants this weekend. That would be oh-so-sweet. In the meantime, let's keep plugging along. I really don't want to play Philly in a short series on the road.

Sea Ray
09-29-2010, 11:17 AM
Would rather face them in a 7 game series than a 5 game series.

I think it's easier to pull off an "upset" in a 5 gamer. That said, it would be nice to give some other team the chance to upset them in the first rd. I think SF matches up better vs Philly than any other team

Cyclone792
09-29-2010, 11:17 AM
Philadelphia has chosen to start on Wednesday next week in the NLDS. That means their series schedule is as follows:

Game 1 on Wed
Game 2 on Fri
Game 3 on Sun
Game 4 on Mon
Game 5 on Wed

That means the Phillies can go with a Halladay-Oswalt-Hamels rotation and send everyone out on four days' rest, even in Games 4 and 5.

Win out, hope for some help. Avoid Philly in the NLDS. At least in the NLCS we'd likely have a shot at one of their other arms.

Col_ IN Reds fan
09-29-2010, 11:17 AM
I would rest some vets today for sure , then see how the weekend plays out.

bucksfan2
09-29-2010, 11:22 AM
I would rest some vets today for sure , then see how the weekend plays out.

Lets say you play
Alonso
Valakia
Janish
Francisco
Heisey
Stubbs
Cairo

Is that marketable worse than the team Houston is running out there?

SirFelixCat
09-29-2010, 11:23 AM
Rest those w/ lingering injuries, play otherwise. Try to win...that said, if I were a betting man, I'd load up against the Reds today. Hangovers can't be good to play with, heh.

Sea Ray
09-29-2010, 11:24 AM
Lets say you play
Alonso
Valakia
Janish
Francisco
Heisey
Stubbs
Cairo

Is that marketable worse than the team Houston is running out there?

I think those kids will play their rear ends off. Ditto for Bloomquist. I'm not worried about the lineup. My gripe would be if we see too much of Aaron Harang or other pitching related substitutions

kaldaniels
09-29-2010, 11:25 AM
Yeah, I'd love home field, but I'd give the guys (most all the regulars) several days rest...as stated the odds are stacked against us getting the 2nd seed, so the risk/reward just doesn't stack up for me.

edabbs44
09-29-2010, 11:27 AM
Yeah, I'd love home field, but I'd give the guys (most all the regulars) several days rest...as stated the odds are stacked against us getting the 2nd seed, so the risk/reward just doesn't stack up for me.

Rest most guys tonight and see what happens. Hope Cueto can shut down Hosuton. If they take out the Astros, then load up for tomorrow vs Myers. Then reassess chances on Friday.

Dan
09-29-2010, 11:27 AM
Would rather face them in a 7 game series than a 5 game series.

So a team that does well against the Reds, you want to give the Phillies MORE chances to beat them?

kaldaniels
09-29-2010, 11:29 AM
Rest most guys tonight and see what happens. Hope Cueto can shut down Hosuton. If they take out the Astros, then load up for tomorrow vs Myers. Then reassess chances on Friday.

Agreed on taking it day by day. That said, the odds for the 2 spot would have to change pretty dramatically for me to load up the lineup over the weekend.

IslandRed
09-29-2010, 12:06 PM
So a team that does well against the Reds, you want to give the Phillies MORE chances to beat them?

I was just thinking the same thing... to me, it's easier to pull an upset in a five-game series than a seven-game series.

edabbs44
09-29-2010, 12:08 PM
I was just thinking the same thing... to me, it's easier to pull an upset in a five-game series than a seven-game series.

Maybe. But maybe not when you have three stud pitchers facing you.

edabbs44
09-29-2010, 12:08 PM
So a team that does well against the Reds, you want to give the Phillies MORE chances to beat them?

It's not that they are facing a team that does well against them, it is that they are facing Halladay/Oswalt/Hamels.

Dan
09-29-2010, 12:19 PM
It's not that they are facing a team that does well against them, it is that they are facing Halladay/Oswalt/Hamels.

And a 5 game series that goes the distance, they'd face Oswalt only once. In a 7 game series that went the distance they'd face Halladay 3 times and Oswalt twice. Which would you rather have?

Blimpie
09-29-2010, 12:21 PM
And a 5 game series that goes the distance, they'd face Oswalt only once. In a 7 game series that went the distance they'd face Halladay 3 times and Oswalt twice. Which would you rather have?Actually, that is like asking which hand you would like to slam in the car door.

I will take the 7 game series. Make them beat us four times; as opposed to three.

15fan
09-29-2010, 12:24 PM
In the 5 game series, Halladay & co are rested and ready to go.

In a 7 game series, the Phils will have recently made a couple of cross country flights (never ever ever underestimate what transcontinental travel does to the human body), and you also get the possibility that Halladay is the starter in games 2/5 or 3/6 rather than 1/4/7.

kaldaniels
09-29-2010, 12:24 PM
Actually, that is like asking which hand you would like to slam in the car door.

I will take the 7 game series. Make them beat us four times; as opposed to three.

Ain't that the truth.

We've beat Oswalt. We've beat Roy. The 4 game Philles sweep (I know a sweep is a sweep) was as competitive a 4 game sweep you will ever see.

Bring it on...cause to be the man, you gotta beat the man.

edabbs44
09-29-2010, 12:43 PM
And a 5 game series that goes the distance, they'd face Oswalt only once. In a 7 game series that went the distance they'd face Halladay 3 times and Oswalt twice. Which would you rather have?

I might take the series that includes Blanton.

Razor Shines
09-29-2010, 12:45 PM
Ain't that the truth.

We've beat Oswalt. We've beat Roy. The 4 game Philles sweep (I know a sweep is a sweep) was as competitive a 4 game sweep you will ever see.

Bring it on...cause to be the man, you gotta beat the man.

Sure, but you still want to try to get the home filed advantage for one series.

OnBaseMachine
09-29-2010, 12:47 PM
What a stupid rule by Major League Baseball. The Reds reward for winning their division is playing the best team in baseball on the road. Meanwhile, a team that finished in second place will get a much more favorable draw. Who cares if the Braves and Phillies are in the same division. The Braves are the Wild Card team, they should play the No. 1 seed.

edabbs44
09-29-2010, 12:54 PM
What a stupid rule by Major League Baseball. The Reds reward for winning their division is playing the best team in baseball on the road. Meanwhile, a team that finished in second place will get a much more favorable draw. Who cares if the Braves and Phillies are in the same division. The Braves are the Wild Card team, they should play the No. 1 seed.

I think this is known as the Yankees/Red Sox rule.

Reds Fanatic
09-29-2010, 01:06 PM
What a stupid rule by Major League Baseball. The Reds reward for winning their division is playing the best team in baseball on the road. Meanwhile, a team that finished in second place will get a much more favorable draw. Who cares if the Braves and Phillies are in the same division. The Braves are the Wild Card team, they should play the No. 1 seed.

It really is a dumb rule. I also hate the scheduling where one team the Phillies gets an extra day off during the division series. It makes no sense to give one team of all the playoff teams an advantage like that where they can get through a series with more rest and using less pitchers.

reds44
09-29-2010, 01:25 PM
Fear nobody. I'd like to avoid the Phillies in the first round, but I'm not going to lose any sleep over having to play them. To win it all, we're probably going to have to beat them anyway.

membengal
09-29-2010, 01:41 PM
Rest guys and get healthy. Win games anyway. The kids on the bench are good enough to get the Reds some wins while we rest some of the walking wounded.

I(heart)Freel
09-29-2010, 01:51 PM
Fear nobody. I'd like to avoid the Phillies in the first round, but I'm not going to lose any sleep over having to play them. To win it all, we're probably going to have to beat them anyway.

I (heart) this.

I'm not dying to see the Reds play the Phils in October... but they certainly can't go into it with the fear that seems to permeate this thread.

My feeling is, the Reds play even aces tough. Manufacture a run or two against them, jack up their pitch count by having quality ABs early and then rely on your starter to keep you in the game (no implosions!). Then hope that you can force a bullpen move in the 7th or 8th and take your chances.

I know it was "just" Houston... but I think last night is a pretty good example of the kind of wins we'll see in the post season.

Johnny Footstool
09-29-2010, 01:56 PM
The longer the series, the greater the chance that talent wins. The Phillies have more talent.

Another poster (red-in-la, I think) used to talk about stealing a championship. That's what this Reds team will have to do -- scratch out close wins, relying on emotion rather than talent.

IMO, their best chance is to catch the veteran Phillies napping in the first round and win 3 games to 1.

Griffey012
09-29-2010, 02:17 PM
Fear nobody. I'd like to avoid the Phillies in the first round, but I'm not going to lose any sleep over having to play them. To win it all, we're probably going to have to beat them anyway.

You have to get by round 1 to get to round 2. Our odds are better at getting by round 1 if we don't play the Phils. We can worry about playing the Phils in round 2 IF they are there, and IF we get by round 1 first. That is why I would much rather not play the Phils in round 1.

I want the matchup that gives us the best chance to get to round 2. But, like you said if we do face the Phils in round 1, so be it, let's deal with it.

Also, I want home field so I can go to 2 games for sure and maybe 3 if necessary!

edabbs44
09-29-2010, 02:18 PM
You have to get by round 1 to get to round 2. Our odds are better at getting by round 1 if we don't play the Phils. We can worry about playing the Phils in round 2 IF they are there, and IF we get by round 1 first. That is why I would much rather not play the Phils in round 1.

My feelings exactly. Playing them with a set rotation and well rested in the first round is a rough proposition.

Roy Tucker
09-29-2010, 02:24 PM
I think this is known as the Yankees/Red Sox rule.

That drew a cynical snort from Roy. Bah.

I never thought about it, but that "wild card not playing a division opponent in the first round" really doesn't make sense. Wild card ought to play #1 seed, pure and simple.

But, these are the cards the Reds are dealt so you gotta play them. Make it work to your advantage somehow.

membengal
09-29-2010, 02:26 PM
Except Wild Card often is second best record in the league (or can be), so doesn't seem fair to make team with best record play team with second best record.

They should probably just seed them 1-4 based on overall record and do it that way.

membengal
09-29-2010, 03:30 PM
Dusty went "all in" on resting the regulars. Which makes me happy. Try and win with the kids and back-ups. I think they can.

Sea Ray
09-29-2010, 03:52 PM
Dusty went "all in" on resting the regulars. Which makes me happy. Try and win with the kids and back-ups. I think they can.

I'm OK with that. I think the kids will bust their tails. It'll be interesting to see how he handles the pitching. My guess is his pitchers won't go much past 90 pitches and then who will he bring in? One more thing is that now that we've clinched other teams will be more likely to play their young players as well

I(heart)Freel
09-29-2010, 04:07 PM
Wonder when Dusty resets his rotation and how.

If Arroyo is to start Game One and if Game One is Wednesday, Friday would be Bronson's normal turn. He's scheduled to go tomorrow.

If Game One is Thursday, Saturday would be Bronson's normal turn.

Do you just pitch him tomorrow and let him go Game One no matter when it is? Throws an extended bullpen as needed.

If Volquez goes Sunday (as planned), then he is lined up perfectly to start Game Two.

fearofpopvol1
09-29-2010, 04:40 PM
One thing that sucks that you can't overlook is that there is always a chance that if the Reds didn't have to play the Phillies in the 1st round that whoever did end up playing them would beat them, meaning we wouldn't have to play the Phillies.

I personally would rather face them in the NLCS as well if the Reds were to win the NLDS, seeing as how the Reds would definitely see 2 home games, they would likely see another pitcher outside of the big 3 etc.

I do hate the rule to of not being able to play a divisional opponent in the 1st round. It is absolutely a Yankees/Red Sox rule and it sucks.

Johnny Footstool
09-29-2010, 04:45 PM
One thing that sucks that you can't overlook is that there is always a chance that if the Reds didn't have to play the Phillies in the 1st round that whoever did end up playing them would beat them, meaning we wouldn't have to play the Phillies.

I personally would rather face them in the NLCS as well if the Reds were to win the NLDS, seeing as how the Reds would definitely see 2 home games, they would likely see another pitcher outside of the big 3 etc.

I do hate the rule to of not being able to play a divisional opponent in the 1st round. It is absolutely a Yankees/Red Sox rule and it sucks.

There's a decent chance that the Phillies will be overlooking their NLDS opponent, especially if it's the lowly Reds.

Any team who beats the Phillies will be on a huge emotional high coming into the NLCS. I'd like that to be the Reds.

Also, if the Phillies survive and make it to the NLCS, they'll have their heads on straight and will rise to their high level of talent.

HokieRed
09-29-2010, 09:44 PM
Only way it isn't the Phillies in the first round is if somehow Atlanta folds and the WC comes from the West.

VR
09-29-2010, 09:54 PM
Dusty went "all in" on resting the regulars. Which makes me happy. Try and win with the kids and back-ups. I think they can.

Well he did....except that he didn't. Not sure why you rest them ALL.....then bring them ALL in for the late innings? What purpose does that serve....other than to risk injury by having them come in cold?

(by the way...they came in and went 0-6)

reds44
09-29-2010, 09:55 PM
Well he did....except that he didn't. Not sure why you rest them ALL.....then bring them ALL in for the late innings? What purpose does that serve....other than to risk injury by having them come in cold?
They all had one AB and played three outs in the field (except Bruce, he might have played six.) It was less than a spring training game.

If you're still hungover at 9:30 the next day, you need to man up.

Brutus
09-29-2010, 09:56 PM
Only way it isn't the Phillies in the first round is if somehow Atlanta folds and the WC comes from the West.

Not necessarily. The Padres could still sweep the Giants this weekend, which could possibly give the Reds the 2-seed.

Tonight's loss does guarantee that the Reds have to win out and the Giants have to lose 3 times to avoid the Phillies (unless of course the Padres catch up with the Braves).

reds44
09-29-2010, 09:57 PM
Not necessarily. The Padres could still sweep the Giants this weekend, which could possibly give the Reds the 2-seed.

Tonight's loss does guarantee that the Reds have to win out and the Giants have to lose 3 times to avoid the Phillies (unless of course the Padres catch up with the Braves).
That's not going to happen. It's going to be the Phillies. Probably was going to be the Phillies regardless of tonight's game.

Lets go get em.

Matt700wlw
09-29-2010, 09:58 PM
They all had one AB and played three outs in the field (except Bruce, he might have played six.) It was less than a spring training game.

If you're still hungover at 9:30 the next day, you need to man up.

I've still been hungover at 9:30 the next night before... ;)

Brutus
09-29-2010, 09:58 PM
That's not going to happen. It's going to be the Phillies. Probably was going to be the Phillies regardless of tonight's game.

Lets go get em.

I also don't expect it, but in the wild, wild, west, you never know.

Ghosts of 1990
09-29-2010, 10:07 PM
Well he did....except that he didn't. Not sure why you rest them ALL.....then bring them ALL in for the late innings? What purpose does that serve....other than to risk injury by having them come in cold?

(by the way...they came in and went 0-6)

I need to be honest here, I also thought it was silly.

Griffey012
09-29-2010, 10:16 PM
Let's go Los Padres!

The Operator
09-29-2010, 10:53 PM
This team can beat The Phillies. Would the odds be stacked against us? Sure. But they split 2-2 with them in their first series, and the second series, while being a 4-game sweep, well, the first game, erm, you know the story? The other matchups were all close. Keep in mind The Reds did not have Bruce or Stubbs performing at their current level, or Chapman at all.

These aren't the same Reds who got dominated for 8 years by Roy Oswalt. They did beat Halladay in the first series, with, a Bruce homer of all things. Hamels is tough, especially because he can neutralize Votto and Bruce if he's on, but he can also be beaten.

Someone else pointed out on RZ recently too, the Phillies may have peaked early. They went on their big run to overtake the East, but I'd rather see The Reds peak in October.

Oh, and think of the bragging rights if The Reds won the World Series? "Yea, man, we took out Philly in the first round and rolled through the NLCS and right onto The World Series." Has a nice ring to it!

One last thought, should we get The Phillies - Travis Wood has to start one of the games. Just has to.

Ghosts of 1990
09-29-2010, 11:10 PM
My thought is, if we get the Phillies; no day games so I don't have to miss them all. Any other team and I think we're going to get the early game during the week every day.

reds44
09-29-2010, 11:24 PM
My thought is, if we get the Phillies; no day games so I don't have to miss them all. Any other team and I think we're going to get the early game during the week every day.
Don't be so sure about no day games. The Phillies had day games in the first round last year, and when you consider the Giants are going to be at home the first two games, we may have to play day games.

membengal
09-30-2010, 06:23 AM
It's the Phillies in all likelihood. Fine. I want a do-over for that four-game set before the break anyway. This team can win three of five against the Phillies. Plus, they will be written off so completely by every observer that the Reds can play fast and loose, which is a good way to play in the post-season.

Cyclone792
09-30-2010, 06:33 AM
With the two seed looking bleak now, honestly, I'd probably rather just deal with Philadelphia than have to travel to the west coast.

mth123
09-30-2010, 06:35 AM
It's the Phillies in all likelihood. Fine. I want a do-over for that four-game set before the break anyway. This team can win three of five against the Phillies. Plus, they will be written off so completely by every observer that the Reds can play fast and loose, which is a good way to play in the post-season.

With off days after the first, second and fourth games, we'll see Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels, Halladay, Oswalt. Yikes.

I'd really prefer the Reds miss these guys in round one. One of the Reds advantages over Philly is that the 4th and 5th guys in the Reds rotation are better than Blanton and whoever in Philly. If the Reds could get a 7 game set and eek out a win in on of the first three, I'd like the Reds chances in Game four against Blanton.

OTOH, if its 'Frisco, Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and Zito may make an even worse circumstance even in a 7 game series. Still, I like the Reds chances against the Giants much better than against Philly.

membengal
09-30-2010, 09:43 AM
With the two seed looking bleak now, honestly, I'd probably rather just deal with Philadelphia than have to travel to the west coast.

Yup.

Have to get by them one way or another, might as well try and rip that band-aid right from the get go.

Ghosts of 1990
09-30-2010, 09:49 AM
With off days after the first, second and fourth games, we'll see Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels, Halladay, Oswalt. Yikes.

I'd really prefer the Reds miss these guys in round one. One of the Reds advantages over Philly is that the 4th and 5th guys in the Reds rotation are better than Blanton and whoever in Philly. If the Reds could get a 7 game set and eek out a win in on of the first three, I'd like the Reds chances in Game four against Blanton.

OTOH, if its 'Frisco, Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and Zito may make an even worse circumstance even in a 7 game series. Still, I like the Reds chances against the Giants much better than against Philly.

It's going to be Philly as we've pretty much conceded the 2nd seed to rest our starters almost on an every third night basis.

That said, we beat Halladay this year in encouraging fashion. I believe he yielded a career high 12-hits to us in Cincinnati on June 30th. And Oswalt isn't the Roy Oswalt he was against some of the past Reds teams. In the last two or three years this group has had some success against him.

RANDY IN INDY
09-30-2010, 10:03 AM
.

_Sir_Charles_
09-30-2010, 12:06 PM
Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think the Reds' goal should be to "advance" in the playoffs. It should be to WIN the world series. Avoiding the Phillies in the first round only delays that fact. Let's man up and just beat the bejeezus out of whomEVER we get matched up with. Having our players healthy and rested is the key to winning against ANYBODY imo.

Reds Freak
09-30-2010, 01:18 PM
There's a decent chance that the Phillies will be overlooking their NLDS opponent, especially if it's the lowly Reds.

Any team who beats the Phillies will be on a huge emotional high coming into the NLCS. I'd like that to be the Reds.

Also, if the Phillies survive and make it to the NLCS, they'll have their heads on straight and will rise to their high level of talent.

I think we've learned that this team doesn't play well on emotional highs (see Aug. 9-11 Cards series). They just need to relax and play, no need to get emotional.

The funny thing about facing the Big 3 for Philly is the Reds offense is just as likely to get shut down by the three worst starters in the league (see Sept. 10-12 Pirates series) than they are to batter the really good starters (see wins over Josh Johnson, Wainright, Halladay, Oswalt, etc.)...

_Sir_Charles_
09-30-2010, 02:18 PM
The longer the series, the greater the chance that talent wins. The Phillies have more talent.

Another poster (red-in-la, I think) used to talk about stealing a championship. That's what this Reds team will have to do -- scratch out close wins, relying on emotion rather than talent.

IMO, their best chance is to catch the veteran Phillies napping in the first round and win 3 games to 1.

I'll be honest, I'm not sure I believe that. More experience...absolutely. More pure talent...I'd lean towards the Reds on that front.

Buckeye33
09-30-2010, 03:10 PM
So if the Reds play the Phillies when will the Reds first home playoff game be? I'm assuming it will be Sunday? I have tickets and work 3rd shift so I need to make sure I have the night off.

*Nevermind, Google is my friend.*

BuckeyeRedleg
09-30-2010, 03:17 PM
If the Reds advance past the Phillies and the Braves get past SF, the Reds get home field in the NLCS, right?

For those saying the road goes through Philly, I get that, but I'd much rather have gone for the #2 seed, get the Braves or SF at home, and have the other knock out Philly and then have home field for the remainder of the playoffs.

The only thing that could kind of take away from this season (in my opinion) is if the Reds get swept by the Phils and only end up playing one game at home.

15 years is a long time to wait for to only have one home playoff game (see: Bengals).

wheels
09-30-2010, 04:20 PM
Welp. No matter what happens, I'm using the playoffs as an excuse to have a blast.

I don't care what happens. To me it's just the Cincinnati Reds 2010 Central Division Championship Victory Tour.

To hell with it. It's been too long to fret over anything.

Johnny Footstool
09-30-2010, 04:30 PM
I'll be honest, I'm not sure I believe that. More experience...absolutely. More pure talent...I'd lean towards the Reds on that front.

Rollins, Utley, Werth, Howard are the big guns in the Phillies lineup. The Reds counter with Phillips, Bruce, Votto, Rolen. Aside from Votto, that's not much of a comparison.

Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels in the rotation. The Reds just can't match that.

Johnny Footstool
09-30-2010, 04:32 PM
I think we've learned that this team doesn't play well on emotional highs (see Aug. 9-11 Cards series). They just need to relax and play, no need to get emotional.

If that's the case, then they'd better just stay home. Emotions will be high regardless of who they play.

Hoosier Red
09-30-2010, 04:37 PM
With the two seed looking bleak now, honestly, I'd probably rather just deal with Philadelphia than have to travel to the west coast.

Yep.

I think the scenarios play out in this order best to worst;
1. #2 seed, play NL West in series at home. Happens only if we make up 3 games on Giants essentially. Even if the Pads catch the Giants, if we haven't made up the 3 games, then the Padres pass us too.
2. #3 seed, play Phillies on road. Most likely scenario, happens if Giants win division and have #2 seed, and Braves win Wild Card
3. #3 seed, play NL West champ on road. This of course happens if the Padres somehow catch the Braves and/or Giants, and the NL West 2nd place finishes with the wild card.

GAC
09-30-2010, 06:24 PM
The Giants are 2 games ahead of the Reds for the #2 seed and just got win #91, so the Reds need to win tonight to stay 2 back.

Now the Giants have the Padres coming in this weekend for the season wrap-up. As far as their seasonal head-to-head match up SD has owned the Giants with a 12-6 record, and is 5-1 at the Giant's At&T Park (swept them earlier in the year).

Lets keep our fingers crossed that SD can repeat that magic and the Reds can run off some wins to get that #2 seed.

Brutus
09-30-2010, 06:25 PM
The Giants are 2 games ahead of the Reds for the #2 seed and just got win #91, so the Reds need to win tonight to stay 2 back.

Now the Giants have the Padres coming in this weekend for the season wrap-up. As far as their seasonal head-to-head match up SD has owned the Giants with a 12-6 record, and is 5-1 at the Giant's At&T Park (swept them earlier in the year).

Lets keep our fingers crossed that SD can repeat that magic and the Reds can run off some wins to get that #2 seed.

Because the Giants win the tiebreaker against Cincinnati, the Reds have to go 4-0 and the Giants get swept by the Padres to have any chance of avoiding Philadelphia, unless the Braves are overtaken in the wild card by the Padres.

GAC
09-30-2010, 06:27 PM
Because the Giants win the tiebreaker against Cincinnati, the Reds have to go 4-0 and the Giants get swept by the Padres to have any chance of avoiding Philadelphia, unless the Braves are overtaken in the wild card by the Padres.

Way to pee in my Cheerios man! :p:

traderumor
09-30-2010, 06:35 PM
So, now that the boogeyman is dead for this season in the Cardinals, its morphed into the Phillies? Bring 'em on, let's play the games and see what happens. Why live in fear?

mbgrayson
09-30-2010, 06:42 PM
So, now that the boogeyman is dead for this season in the Cardinals, its morphed into the Phillies? Bring 'em on, let's play the games and see what happens. Why live in fear?

Reds are not going to have any choice in the matter, so it seems to me that we might as well set the rotaton up with the assumption that we WILL be playing the Phillies.

GAC
09-30-2010, 06:50 PM
So, now that the boogeyman is dead for this season in the Cardinals, its morphed into the Phillies? Bring 'em on, let's play the games and see what happens.

No problem there. But I got tix to game #4 so they better not get swept! :p:

Edskin
09-30-2010, 09:51 PM
Yep, it's a moot point now...unless we sweep the Brewers and the Pads sweep the Giants, we have no control over getting the #2 seed. Our only (slim) chance of avoiding Philly would be the Pads to make up 2 games (or all 3) on Atlanta this weekend. All of this seems highly unlikely. Reds-Phils in the NLDS looks to be somewhere around an 85% probablity in my mind.

GAC
09-30-2010, 10:50 PM
We be playin' the Phillies.

Bring them bads boys on!

edabbs44
09-30-2010, 11:23 PM
Waiting to see the times for Games 1&2 and figure out which game I am going to.

Matt700wlw
09-30-2010, 11:27 PM
A friend of mine threw this out tonight....start Chapman in a game against the Phillies against that lefty heavy lineup...my concern was that he's not stretched out, but if he could go 3, bring in Wood in relief...

I don't know.

Matchup thinking.

VR
09-30-2010, 11:35 PM
A friend of mine threw this out tonight....start Chapman in a game against the Phillies against that lefty heavy lineup...my concern was that he's not stretched out, but if he could go 3, bring in Wood in relief...

I don't know.

Matchup thinking.


I was ruminating over Wood for 4, Bray for 2, Chapman for 2, and Rhodes for 1.


Throw Massett in there as a ROOGY if needed.

Brutus
09-30-2010, 11:41 PM
I was ruminating over Wood for 4, Bray for 2, Chapman for 2, and Rhodes for 1.


Throw Massett in there as a ROOGY if needed.

The whole LHP thing against them is kind of a misnomer. Sure, they have a predominately LH lineup, but they're hitting LHP better this year (.762 OPS) than they are RHP (.737).

Travis Wood had his near perfect game against them, so I wouldn't be surprised if Dusty intends to start him in the first round because of that. But truthfully these guys hit LHs pretty well.

The Operator
10-01-2010, 04:01 AM
I was ruminating over Wood for 4, Bray for 2, Chapman for 2, and Rhodes for 1. For some reason, Philly has crushed Arthur this year.

Two separate outings he failed to retire a batter while ultimately being charged with 2+ earned runs. Weird.

GAC
10-01-2010, 05:37 AM
We be playin' the Phillies.

Bring them bads boys on!

Playing Philly, I got tickets for game #4. I hope to be able to attend since I've never been to a Red's post-season game; but I won't be too upset if the Reds sweep the Phillies in 3. :D

HokieRed
10-01-2010, 09:37 AM
Playoff question. Suppose SD, SF, Atl. all finish 91-71. I assume we get a one game playoff for the West title first, then a game between the loser of that game and the Braves for the wild card? Is that right?

Danny Serafini
10-01-2010, 09:43 AM
Playoff question. Suppose SD, SF, Atl. all finish 91-71. I assume we get a one game playoff for the West title first, then a game between the loser of that game and the Braves for the wild card? Is that right?

I'm not 100%, but I believe the loser of the SF/SD game would be eliminated. That extra SF/SD game would count as a regular season game, and at 91-72 the loser would drop 1/2 game behind Atlanta.

Reds Fanatic
10-01-2010, 11:21 AM
I'm not 100%, but I believe the loser of the SF/SD game would be eliminated. That extra SF/SD game would count as a regular season game, and at 91-72 the loser would drop 1/2 game behind Atlanta.

I got this from MLB's site. If the teams all finished tied there would be two playoff games. They don't count the extra game toward the standings so they would have a playoff game to determine the west then a playoff game to determine the wild card.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101001&content_id=15284960&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb


If the Padres sweep and the Braves lose two of three, they and the Giants would all be 91-71, setting up a pair of one-game playoffs. San Francisco would visit San Diego on Monday to decide the West, with the loser playing in Atlanta on Tuesday for the Wild Card.

Danny Serafini
10-01-2010, 12:36 PM
OK, I guess I'm more like 0%. :laugh:

traderumor
10-01-2010, 12:48 PM
Man, that double playoff scenario would be a killer to the West team.

Reds Fanatic
10-01-2010, 01:08 PM
Man, that double playoff scenario would be a killer to the West team.

It would also be a killer to the other NL playoff teams. If that happened you would not know who you were playing or where you need to be traveling until after that 2nd game.

I(heart)Freel
10-01-2010, 04:26 PM
God help me...

I threw all the scenarios in a spreadsheet and determined that 48 of the 64 final record scenarios (based on this weekend's games) has the Reds going to Philly. That's 75 percent probability.

Only 4 of 64 scenarios definitely have the Reds NOT going to Philly. That's about 6 percent.

And then the remaining 12 scenarios require play-in games that would affect which team goes to Philly. That's 19 percent probability. Frankly, those scenarios make my head hurt.

Brutus
10-01-2010, 05:04 PM
It would also be a killer to the other NL playoff teams. If that happened you would not know who you were playing or where you need to be traveling until after that 2nd game.

If that happened it wouldn't be a killer to the other teams most likely, because both Philadelphia and Cincinnati would probably still be hosting (assuming the Reds won these 3 games this weekend, which isn't a given but I feel confident will happen).

So they won't know who they're playing, but both would be hosting so the travel wouldn't be an issue.

Edskin
10-01-2010, 06:17 PM
Part of me holds out hope to avoid Philly and another part of me as a fan of the game would love to see the Pads force a playoff with the Braves or the Giants. But another part of me is anxious to see the schedule...dates, times, etc.... and if the Pads lose and Braves win tonight, it will all be set in stone.

mth123
10-01-2010, 08:33 PM
NM. Somebody already posted and I had it wrong.

GAC
10-02-2010, 04:49 AM
That loss last night sealed the deal. The Reds will start the 1st round in Philly.

GO REDS!!!!

membengal
10-02-2010, 06:33 AM
That loss last night sealed the deal. The Reds will start the 1st round in Philly.

GO REDS!!!!

I think there are still scenarios, GAC, where the Padres (or even Giants) get the Wild Card and Braves go home. In that situation, Reds would not play the Phillies in round 1. But those secnarios are now out of Cincy's control, and it is simply a matter of watching the Padres/Giants and Braves/Phillies series play out.

Edskin
10-02-2010, 07:42 AM
I think there are still scenarios, GAC, where the Padres (or even Giants) get the Wild Card and Braves go home. In that situation, Reds would not play the Phillies in round 1. But those secnarios are now out of Cincy's control, and it is simply a matter of watching the Padres/Giants and Braves/Phillies series play out.

Yep, Pads still have a shot....they control their destiny vs. the Giants and they are only 1 back of Atlanta....if SD wins and ATL loses this afternoon, things get real interesting on Sunday.

Caveat Emperor
10-02-2010, 11:04 AM
Part of me holds out hope to avoid Philly and another part of me as a fan of the game would love to see the Pads force a playoff with the Braves or the Giants. But another part of me is anxious to see the schedule...dates, times, etc.... and if the Pads lose and Braves win tonight, it will all be set in stone.

Bring on Philly. If the goal is to make (and win) a World Series, I want to play the best team in a short series.

Edskin
10-02-2010, 12:12 PM
Bring on Philly. If the goal is to make (and win) a World Series, I want to play the best team in a short series.

Nope...I'd rather someone else take a shot at knocking them off first...then, if we have to face them in the LCS, so be it. And in this case, considering match-ups, I'd like our chances more in a 7 gamer with Philly than a 5 gamer.

Johnny Footstool
10-02-2010, 12:36 PM
Bring on Philly. If the goal is to make (and win) a World Series, I want to play the best team in a short series.

Exactly. It's easier to steal 3 games out of 5 than 4 games out of 7.

edabbs44
10-02-2010, 12:59 PM
Exactly. It's easier to steal 3 games out of 5 than 4 games out of 7.

Looking at the specifics, do you think the same when you take into acct the rotations (Halladay/Oswalt/Hamels set up to be the only starters in the NLDS vs Blanton pitching at least one and potentially 2 in the NLCS if the NLDS goes longer than expected) and the home game distribution (2-2-1 vs 2-3-2 in NLCS)?

mth123
10-02-2010, 01:03 PM
Exactly. It's easier to steal 3 games out of 5 than 4 games out of 7.

I'd normally agree, but going deeper in the rotation favors the Reds. There is a big drop-off from the 3 to 4 slot for Philly. The Reds? Not so much. There is also the possibility that in the next round, Philly may not be lined up with Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels. Maybe the days will fall where Halladay and/or Oswalt can only go once. Maybe Blanton would be in line for two starts.

GAC
10-02-2010, 01:55 PM
Yep, Pads still have a shot....they control their destiny vs. the Giants and they are only 1 back of Atlanta....if SD wins and ATL loses this afternoon, things get real interesting on Sunday.

What scenarios still are possibilities where the Reds could avoid Philly in the 1st round?

fearofpopvol1
10-02-2010, 04:28 PM
What scenarios still are possibilities where the Reds could avoid Philly in the 1st round?

I second this. and i also wonder if anyone knows what the scenarios are for a potential 1-game playoff.

SirFelixCat
10-02-2010, 04:40 PM
If Pads win today and ATL loses, everything for both those teams hinges on Sunday. If the Pads sweep (win today and tomorrow) and ATL loses today or tomorrow, then it would be a one-game playoff.


Basically, if you want the Reds to avoid the Phillies, Atl MUST lose at least one game (today or tomorrow) and the Padres must win at least one (assuming ATL loses both).