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Brutus
09-29-2010, 04:17 PM
Time to campaign for Joey Votto, though I think he has the award wrapped up. After all, the Rockies have been eliminated and CarGo and Tulo may split the vote for them. Albert Pujols is a very enticing candidate (as usual) but with the Cards' seven games out of first, he'll not get a ton of support.

It seems Votto is the obvious candidate. Ryan Howard is the only guy that would get much mention this year for the Phillies, but no one is talking about him. Adrian Gonzalez probably deserves mention, but isn't having the statistical season that Votto is. The Giants have had more of a team effort (though Buster Posey is making a run at ROY).

Votto is running .325 (2nd) - 37 (3rd) - 111 (3rd). CarGo and Pujols both have comparable statistics, but again, the fact their teams are out of the playoff race already, right or wrong, is usually sufficient grounds to not win the award.

So is this the first Reds' player to be an MVP since Barry in '95? Sure looks like it.

Johnny Footstool
09-29-2010, 04:40 PM
Joey has to be a lock, or else the whole HOF voting system needs to be torn down.

The award usually goes to the best offensive player on a playoff team, unless another player is head-and-shoulders better than the rest of the league. Votto was on par with Pujols this season, and CarGo wasn't that much better than either of them.

Phhhl
09-29-2010, 05:21 PM
It's going to be Votto, unless Charlie Manuel has a vote.

RedsBaron
09-29-2010, 05:35 PM
Joey has the MVP award locked up. He had just as good, if not better, season than Pujols (and both were better than CarGo unless you decide to ignore park effects). This divisional title belongs to the Reds and this MVP award belongs to Joey Votto.

RedsManRick
09-29-2010, 06:36 PM
I'm still partial to the WAR framework. I might use the playoff/team/story type stuff as an absolute tie-breaker, but I'd rather just give it to the guy who produced the most.

Here are the top 10 for both Fangraphs and B-Ref. They use the same basic WAR framework, but use different data inputs. Some notable differences are Pujols's offense (no clue what's going on there) and Votto and Zimmerman's defense. In any event, all this tells us is that its pretty much a dead head statistically among the leaders.



Rk Name Team Bat Fld Rep Pos RAR WAR Dollars
1 Votto Cin 58.3 3.0 21.2 -10.8 71.7 7.4 $29.6
2 Zimmerman WSH 32.5 15.9 20.1 1.9 70.4 7.3 $29.1
3 Pujols STL 56.8 2.2 22.9 -11.6 70.3 7.3 $29.0
4 Holliday STL 42.5 7.7 22.0 -6.8 65.3 6.8 $27.0
5 Tulowitzki COL 31.2 4.7 17.0 5.3 58.2 6.0 $24.1
6 C Gonzalez COL 44.4 -4.9 20.9 -3.1 57.4 5.9 $23.7
7 Weeks MIL 27.4 -0.2 24.2 2.2 53.6 5.5 $22.1
8 A Gonzalez SD 37.6 5.3 22.4 -11.7 53.5 5.5 $22.1
9 Torres SFG 17.6 18.4 18.3 -1.3 53.0 5.5 $21.9
10 Johnson ARI 25.0 4.0 21.8 1.9 52.7 5.4 $21.8

Rk Name oWAR dWAR WAR
1 Pujols 7.2 -0.2 7.0
2 A Gonzalez 5.4 0.7 6.1
3 Votto 6.7 -0.7 6.0
4 Huff 4.1 1.3 5.4
5 Tulowitski 4.3 1.1 5.4
6 Holliday 5.2 0.1 5.3
7 Zimmerman 5.1 0.1 5.2
8 Werth 4.9 0.0 4.9
9 C Gonzalez 4.9 -0.2 4.7
10 McCann 4.4 0.3 4.7


Considering that...
- Award voters are loathe to give guys who have already won it before (no Pujols)
- The Rockies missed the playoffs (no Cargo & Tulo)
- Award voters don't fully appreciate depressive park effects (no A Gonzalez)
- Award voters don't realize that Ryan Zimmerman is really freaking good (no Zimmerman)
- Award voters like to go with the best storyline, when possible...

I'd say Votto has it in the bag and it won't be particularly close.

kaldaniels
09-29-2010, 06:40 PM
Signed, sealed, delivered. Congrats Joey!