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View Full Version : What has to happen (playoff opponent schedule)



arkimadee
09-30-2010, 09:28 AM
What has to happen for the Reds to face anyone other than the Phillies? Even if the Reds won there last 4 games they would have to hope for the Giants to lose 3 of their last 4 because of the season head to head. If they won 3 of 4 the Giants would have to lose all 4.. Not seeing that happen at all.

The only other scenario is the Padres winning the wildcard over the Braves. For that to happen the Braves would have to lose 2 of 3 at home to a resting Philadelphia team. Then the Padres would have to win 2 of 3 against the Giants. I mean it could happen but you know they are gonna want to get in there for Bobby Cox.

I'm doing this math in my head so if I'm wrong feel free to correct me.

So unless a miracle happens, we will be at Philly next week, so make your plans for Sunday at GABP..

redsfan_12
09-30-2010, 09:30 AM
Not to mention Hamels is the only one of the "guns" that are pitching this weekend

arkimadee
09-30-2010, 09:53 AM
Well now that I study the schedule and the standings a little, alot will be riding on todays game, Giants vs Diamondbacks. Giants lose today and the Reds win, It's the Reds trailing by 1 game going into the weekend. Win 2 of 3 against the Brew Crew and the Giants get swept against the Padres then we have games 1 and 2 at GABP. Or sweep the Brewers and the Giants lose 2 of 3. We will know alot more about 7pm tonight.. So lets not make plans yet for Sunday just yet

Votto4MVP
09-30-2010, 10:26 AM
Well now that I study the schedule and the standings a little, alot will be riding on todays game, Giants vs Diamondbacks. Giants lose today and the Reds win, It's the Reds trailing by 1 game going into the weekend. Win 2 of 3 against the Brew Crew and the Giants get swept against the Padres then we have games 1 and 2 at GABP. Or sweep the Brewers and the Giants lose 2 of 3. We will know alot more about 7pm tonight.. So lets not make plans yet for Sunday just yet

Not quite true...if we win 3 of 4 we finish with 91 wins. If the Pads sweep the Giants they finish with 91 wins too, they get the tiebreaker.

We need to win all the last 4 pretty much, need the pads to lose 1 and giants lose 3. Only real option. Best way is for giants to lose today and us to win. Then if we sweep the brew crew we just need the pads to take 2 of 3. Or even if the Pads win lose today they can sweep the giants.

arkimadee
09-30-2010, 10:31 AM
Theres always that scenario where Atlanta folds and the wildcard goes out West, then we play out there. i still can't believe i'm talking about this.. someone wake me up

brm7675
09-30-2010, 10:36 AM
The playoff matchups is pretty well set. Phils will have the No. 1 seed, the West winner will have the No. 2 seed, We will have the No. 3 Seed and the Braves are your WC team, thus the playoffs will be:

Reds vs Philly's
West winner vs. Braves

arkimadee
09-30-2010, 10:41 AM
i pray we don't play the frikin 4pm game on Wednesday.. I have to work and I would miss game 1..

KOBasinger
09-30-2010, 10:42 AM
i pray we don't play the frikin 4pm game on Wednesday.. I have to work and I would miss game 1..

where do you see the times for the games?

arkimadee
09-30-2010, 10:57 AM
where do you see the times for the games?
They are not listed yet but I think there is a 4pm game, a 7pm game and a 10pm game on Wednesday.. That is how it normally is in the playoffs. Hopefully they'll stick the Twins and Rays (if the Rays are wildcard) at 4pm.. put the Reds and Phillies at 7pm and the Yankees and Rangers at 10pm

texasdave
09-30-2010, 11:12 AM
2010 MLB playoff schedule (Kinda)

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/09/14/2010-baseball-playoffs-schedule/

gmt
09-30-2010, 04:26 PM
It will be a lot easier to see the possibilities when today's games are completed. The Padres vs Giants series holds most of the keys.

Here's something to ponder: the Giants, Padres and Braves could all finish with the same record, 91 - 71. The question would be, how do they figure the West winner and the wildcard? If you look just at head to head, the Braves hold the season edge over both the Giants and Padres. Does that automatically put them in as the wildcard? To figure the west division, the Giants and Padres will need to play a one game playoff. Those games are counted as regular season, so one team will be 92 - 71, the other 91 - 72 after that game. Does that result also automatically qualify the Braves as the Wildcard as a 91 - 71 winning percentage is higher than a 91 - 72 winning percentage. Would there need to be a wildcard play-in game?

arkimadee
09-30-2010, 04:27 PM
It will be a lot easier to see the possibilities when today's games are completed. The Padres vs Giants series holds most of the keys.

Here's something to ponder: the Giants, Padres and Braves could all finish with the same record, 91 - 71. The question would be, how do they figure the West winner and the wildcard? If you look just at head to head, the Braves hold the season edge over both the Giants and Padres. Does that automatically put them in as the wildcard? To figure the west division, the Giants and Padres will need to play a one game playoff. Those games are counted as regular season, so one team will be 92 - 71, the other 91 - 72 after that game. Does that result also automatically qualify the Braves as the Wildcard as a 91 - 71 winning percentage is higher than a 91 - 72 winning percentage. Would there need to be a wildcard play-in game?
you know, that's a hell of a question.. never even thought about that

gmt
09-30-2010, 04:43 PM
If the Giants and Padres both win today, the Reds will automatically be the 3rd best team. The Reds can only get to 92 wins tops. With a Giants and Padres win today, they will have 91 and 89 wins respectively. A sweep by the Padres gets them to the same 92 wins as the Reds and a better head to head for the Padres makes the Reds the #3. Anything less than a sweep by the Padres gets the Giants to at least 92 wins. Same head to head scenario puts the Giants #2 and the Reds #3.

The only thing to figure from there is who will be the wildcard, Braves or west division 2nd place finisher. Braves hold the season head to head vs both the Padres and Giants. They only need one more win to guarantee a shot at the playoffs. At 91 wins with that one win, the most wins the Padres can have right now is 92. That would put the Giants at 91, tied with the Braves and eliminated due to head to head. I have already gone over the possible 91 win three way possibility.

The way I see it, the only way the Braves miss out is if they are swept by the Phillies.

gmt
09-30-2010, 04:52 PM
One more:

If the Giants and Padres both lose today, the Braves are in as the wildcard. At 90 wins, the braves could get swept and have 90 wins. If the Padres sweep the Giants, they would have 91 wins with the Giants tied at 90 with the Braves. Season head to head to the Braves. Padres win 2 of 3 and the Giants win the west with 91 wins, the Padres finish with 90 wins tied with the Braves and the head to head goes to the Braves again.

If either or both the Giants or Padres win today, the Braves need just one more win to be the wildcard.

gmt
09-30-2010, 05:28 PM
Last one (today) :)

If the Reds lose tonight, they are automatically the 3rd best division record. The best they could do is 91 wins. Either or both the Giants and/or Padres will get to 91 wins or more. Both teams hold the H2H vs the Reds.

scott91575
09-30-2010, 05:35 PM
If the Giants and Padres both win today, the Reds will automatically be the 3rd best team. The Reds can only get to 92 wins tops. With a Giants and Padres win today, they will have 91 and 89 wins respectively. A sweep by the Padres gets them to the same 92 wins as the Reds and a better head to head for the Padres makes the Reds the #3. Anything less than a sweep by the Padres gets the Giants to at least 92 wins. Same head to head scenario puts the Giants #2 and the Reds #3.

The only thing to figure from there is who will be the wildcard, Braves or west division 2nd place finisher. Braves hold the season head to head vs both the Padres and Giants. They only need one more win to guarantee a shot at the playoffs. At 91 wins with that one win, the most wins the Padres can have right now is 92. That would put the Giants at 91, tied with the Braves and eliminated due to head to head. I have already gone over the possible 91 win three way possibility.

The way I see it, the only way the Braves miss out is if they are swept by the Phillies.

Head to head does not determine the wild card. A one game playoff determines the wild card (home field determined by a coin flip).

scott91575
09-30-2010, 05:39 PM
It will be a lot easier to see the possibilities when today's games are completed. The Padres vs Giants series holds most of the keys.

Here's something to ponder: the Giants, Padres and Braves could all finish with the same record, 91 - 71. The question would be, how do they figure the West winner and the wildcard? If you look just at head to head, the Braves hold the season edge over both the Giants and Padres. Does that automatically put them in as the wildcard? To figure the west division, the Giants and Padres will need to play a one game playoff. Those games are counted as regular season, so one team will be 92 - 71, the other 91 - 72 after that game. Does that result also automatically qualify the Braves as the Wildcard as a 91 - 71 winning percentage is higher than a 91 - 72 winning percentage. Would there need to be a wildcard play-in game?

If all 3 have the same record, the Padres and Giants would play a 1 game playoff for the division. The loser of that game would then play the Braves for the wild card.

Think of it this way, head to head records cannot eliminate a team from the playoffs. It is only used for determining seeding of teams that are already in the playoffs.

scott91575
09-30-2010, 05:44 PM
In case anyone was wondering about the scenarios, go here....

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/division_ties.shtml

Scenario 3 and 5 are most applicable to what is being talked about here.

gmt
09-30-2010, 05:51 PM
Head to head does not determine the wild card. A one game playoff determines the wild card (home field determined by a coin flip).
Yeah I got ahead of myself. The ties for wildcard or division is a one game playoff. Ties for who is seeded higher goes to h2h.

I'm not clear on the condition of a tie for division and wildcard at the same time. I thought major league regular season records still count in the play-in game. So do all ties still count as ties after one of the play-in games is played? If one team's record after the play-in is 92 - 71 and the others are 91 - 72 and 91 - 71, technically after the play-in game, the loser and the team that didn't play originally had the same record but no longer anymore. The loser is 1/2 game behind the other. I can see how this round robin would need to have all teams get involved, but which comes first? I would think the division winner would need to happen first, then the wildcard. The division loser would be at somewhat of a disadvantage playing two games to win one instead of just one to get the wildcard.

gmt
09-30-2010, 05:52 PM
In case anyone was wondering about the scenarios, go here....

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/division_ties.shtml

Scenario 3 and 5 are most applicable to what is being talked about here.

Thanks for clearing that up.

About the only tam that can relax are the Phillies. They basically can set up their rotation and lineups don't change that much. They are just in a holding pattern. Just imagine the scenario that neither the Reds, Braves, Padres or Giants may know where or who they are playing until tiebreakers are played. It would be exciting.

scott91575
09-30-2010, 06:03 PM
Thanks for clearing that up.

About the only tam that can relax are the Phillies. They basically can set up their rotation and lineups don't change that much. They are just in a holding pattern. Just imagine the scenario that neither the Reds, Braves, Padres or Giants may know where or who they are playing until tiebreakers are played. It would be exciting.

The Reds are in a good spot too. Highly unlikely to get home field since they will be playing the West winner or the Phillies.

What would be in the Reds best interest is a 3 way tie, and play the West winner. That would cause them to use their best pitcher in the tie breaker, and that pitcher would not be able to pitch twice in the NLDS.