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brm7675
09-30-2010, 11:25 AM
Well since it's pretty much a lock that we are going to play Philly in the NLDS, which Reds Rotation would you go with?

Votto4MVP
09-30-2010, 11:28 AM
Bronson and Wood 1 and 2 in philly.

If we are down 0-2 id through Volquez, if its 1-1 or 2-0 us Id throw Cueto.

Then obvioulsy which ever one doesnt pitch 3 pitches 4.

So Bron, Wood, Cueto Volquez or Bron, Wood, Volquez, Cueto.

KOBasinger
09-30-2010, 11:41 AM
I'm throwing Wood out there Game 1. He pretty much shut the Phillies down and I think he's capable of doing it again. Gives us the best chance at taking Game 1 IMO.

Krawhitham
09-30-2010, 12:26 PM
none of the above

This will not happen because he has "earned it" but I would not use Arroyo vs the Phillies, he has a .305 BBA against that lineup

You only need 3 starters so I go with Cueto/Wood/Volquez. I start Wood in the 2nd game because if you lose the 1st then the 2nd is a must win. If you win the 1st with Cueto then you can pretty much put the series away by winning the 2nd game

Cueto's BAA .224
Wood's BAA .046
Volquez's BAA .238


The Phillies are going with 3 starters if the Reds do not want to use Cueto on short rest then use Arroyo because the Phillies OWN Homer (.350 BAA)

The Phillies have already stated they are starting the Roys in the 1st 2 games, and the Reds do very well against the Roys

.283 avg vs Halladay
.290 avg vs Oswalt (which includes Edmond's .216 in 51 AB and he will not be on the roster)

brm7675
09-30-2010, 01:42 PM
none of the above

This will not happen because he has "earned it" but I would not use Arroyo vs the Phillies, he has a .305 BBA against that lineup

You only need 3 starters so I go with Cueto/Wood/Volquez. I start Wood in the 2nd game because if you lose the 1st then the 2nd is a must win. If you win the 1st with Cueto then you can pretty much put the series away by winning the 2nd game

Cueto's BAA .224
Wood's BAA .046
Volquez's BAA .238


The Phillies are going with 3 starters if the Reds do not want to use Cueto on short rest then use Arroyo because the Phillies OWN Homer (.350 BAA)

The Phillies have already stated they are starting the Roys in the 1st 2 games, and the Reds do very well against the Roys

.283 avg vs Halladay
.290 avg vs Oswalt (which includes Edmond's .216 in 51 AB and he will not be on the roster)

What Does Bronson bring to the table the others don't? Experience, and that trumps those other numbers. In game 1 I want the pitcher out there with the most experience and playoff experience along with the talent he brings.

Votto4MVP
09-30-2010, 01:50 PM
none of the above


The Phillies have already stated they are starting the Roys in the 1st 2 games, and the Reds do very well against the Roys

.283 avg vs Halladay
.290 avg vs Oswalt (which includes Edmond's .216 in 51 AB and he will not be on the roster)

Im assuming you mean the reds do very well against the roys this year...

Because goign into this year we were like 1 for 25 against Oswalt. He owned us for years, but we got to him this year, hopefully we can continue that.

As for Halladay we had one good game against him where we got 4 runs, he also pitched 9 scoreless innings against us in the Wood perfect game, game. So I dont know if id say we do very well against the roys, but we'll see.

Betterread
09-30-2010, 01:52 PM
Tough decisions.
I would give the first start to Arroyo, because he has the most experience and he is the most consistent.
Then Cueto, then Volquez.
Bailey is pitching well enough, but he is too young to know how he will respond to the postseason. I'm fine with using him in long relief if Cueto or Volquez have one of their early innings meltdowns.
Ditto for Wood, except he has pitched a lot of innings for a prospect and he is kind of short on stuff. He looked very good vrs. Philly for one game this year so I would keep that in mind.
We need them all to pitch like they have been, with our offense looking so weak recently.

SYCMiniBus
09-30-2010, 01:53 PM
At the moment it looks like the Reds most likely scenario is to face the Phillies. Everyone seems to think that the best way to go against the Phils is to simply run lefties out there. However I think a lot of that comes from when players like Victorino/Utley/Rollins were out of the lineup. Now it comes to breaking down myths.

The Phils numbers against RHP and LHP

LHP: .267/.336/.426/.762
RHP: .257/.329/.408/.737

So in essence it isn't a huge difference one way or the other, and as a team they actually fair slightly better against LHP.

So individually where are the biggest splits. Believe it or not, Carlos Ruiz is actually a player who could be key, and he is a much different player against RHP.

LHP: .330/.434/.514/.948
RHP: .284/.379/.412/.791

Having a player like Ruiz be a .948 OPS guy hitting in the 8-hole is tough, and that is exactly the case when looking at him against a lefty.

Also ironically enough, Chase Utley is far, far better against LHP. In fact this year his splits aren't even close.

LHP: .284/.411/.575/.986
RHP: .276/.380/.394/.774

Maybe the biggest key to the Phils offense is Shane Victorino. Victorino is the engine for the offense, and when he gets on, that makes life a lot easier for the rest of the big hitters. Here is a look at his numbers

LHP: .321/.379/.541/.920
RHP: .236/.309/.390/.699

In fact by throwing a lefty out there, the only two players who you significantly impact would be Placido Polanco and Raul Ibanez, and only Ibanez's numbers would scare a pitcher in a situation.

Here are Polanco's numbers

LHP: .282/.326/.346/.672
RHP: .304/.346/.404/.750

Here are Ibanez's numbers

LHP: .263/.305/.417/.722
RHP: .280/.380/.462/.842

With Jason Werth and Ryan Howard, both hit righties a little bit harder than lefties, but the numbers are very good for both against righties and lefties, so it isn't like all of the sudden you are neutralizing a player by running a righty or a lefty out there. Now lefty specialists can tie Howard in knots, but that is a whole different sub-category that we aren't dealing with in this matter.

If running a lefty out there, you effective hurt guys like Raul Ibanez and Placido Polanco, but you make Carlos Ruiz, Chase Utley, and Shane Victorino much better players. I think a smart righty might be able to pitch around Ibanez if needed, and take his chances with a guy like Polanco or Ruiz who are both sub .800 OPS guys against RHP.

Now that leads to the question of how would the Reds set things up assuming games one and two are in Philadelphia. When looking at this, a lot has to be considered. Some of the Reds pitchers have unbelieveable splits between home and road, and then of course how they have fared versus the Phillies, etc.

I will go about this in alphabetical order....

Bronson Arroyo

HOME: 6-5, 4.24 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 4.64 K/9IP
ROAD: 10-5, 3.76 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 5.37 K/9IP

Versus LHH: .287/.336/.456/.792
Versus RHH: .185/.251/.328/.579

NO APPERANCES VERSUS PHILLY

Obviously this indicates that Bronson is a much, much better pitcher on the road than he is at home. He allows less people on base, strikes out more, and just flat out is better. What factors go into that exactly, I don't know, but the fact remains he has been much better away from GABP. Of course the numbers also show that Bronson gets crushed by lefties as opposed to righties, but as noted above, the Phillies offense in that way isn't quite like some make it out to be.

Johnny Cueto

HOME: 6-3, 3.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.06 K/9IP
ROAD: 6-4, 4.10 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6.30 K/9IP

Versus LHH: .234/.306/.404/.710
Versus RHH: .276/.329/.412/.741

Pitched two times against the Phillies

@PHI: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 K, 2 BB, 1.29 ERA
GABP: 8 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 K, 2 BB, 1.12 ERA

With Cueto he is significantly better at home. Of course the disaster of a start @MIL could play into those numbers, but all around he has just been far more dominant at GABP, and I think he is just more comfortable at home. Also obviously he has been absoutely nails against the Phils all season, and did it home and road. Righties hit him slightly better, but honestly those splits are very close, and really luck as much as anything might account for any difference.

Edinson Volquez

HOME: 3-2, 3.23 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 11.54 K/9IP
ROAD: 1-1, 6.08 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 6.46 K/9IP

Versus LHH: .229/.377/.314/.691
Versus RHH: .273/.338/.438/.776

NO APPEARNCES VERSUS PHILLY

Here is another player who is a lot better at home. In fact he has been borderline dominant at GABP this season, especially recently. Once again one bad start @SF might skew the numbers, but still the K's show his dominance, and obviously he is very comfortable in GABP. Also he has shown he is much tougher against lefties than righties. That probably has to do with his change up, but without taking a closer look, it is tough to know for sure.

Travis Wood

HOME: 0-2, 3.94 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 10.125 K/9IP
ROAD: 5-2, 3.36 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 6.97 K/9IP

Versus LHH: .143/.217/.238/.455
Versus RHH: .245/.294/.362/.657

@PHI: 9 IP, 1 H, 8 K, 0 BB, 0.00 ERA

With Wood, he looks a lot better on the road. Now he hasn't pitched very much at home, so it might be a bit of an unfair comparison, but overall his road numbers are excellent. Add in the fact that he was nails against the Phils in Philadelphia, and that is something that has to be taken into account. Lefties flat out can't hit Wood at all, and righties haven't been much better.

With all of this information, here is how I would set up my rotation going into a series against the Phillies.

1. Bronson Arroyo (He pitches better away from home, and might be able to get the best of a guy like Werth, while also the numbers suggest Rollins/Ruiz/Victorino aren't going to be nearly as effective. If he can manage to work around Ibanez and get to those other guys, he could limit the Phils offense somewhat. Also the Phils haven't seen him this year, and while they have seen him in the past, maybe it is a little something to go with that could help. Beyond that he is matched up against Halladay, and Bronson won't have any fear in that situation. He will go out there the same way, and with his experience I just like that in a game one setting.)

2. Travis Wood (He has been a much better pitcher away from GABP. Also it has to be good karma and a sense of confidence to know he almost threw a perfect game there. Beyond that quite honestly his numbers indicate he has been the best pitcher for the Reds over about a two month span. Hopefully he could shut down Howard/Ibanez, and then get some good luck against the other guys. While starting a rookie in a potential must win probably doesn't give anybody a warm fuzzy feeling, he seems to me to give the team the best chance to win on the road.

3. Johnny Cueto (The fact that he has been much better at home says something, and honestly numbers wise over the course of the year he has been the best starter. If it is a 1-1 series or even 0-2, having your best out there is a great advantage. He pitched well against the Phils at GABP earlier in the year, and also been stingy to both righties and lefties. In a game where the season could be on the line, it just seems like Cueto would be the guy you want along with Arroyo, and Arroyo wouldn't be ready to pitch again, so this seems like the best scenario.)

4. Edinson Volquez (The Reds could choose to only go with three starters, but I think they would still want four guys to rotate even though it is an eight day series. Volquez gets this nod over Bailey because he has been dominant lately, and Bailey throws BP to the Phils. Beyond that, Volquez would be matched up with Halladay in this game. In terms of raw stuff, Volquez is the best that the Reds can run out there. If the Reds have a chance to clinch, or avoid elimination against a possible Cy Young pitcher, Volquez is the one on the staff who has the best chance to match him pitch for pitch.)

5. TBD (It could be Arroyo or it could be Wood. It would depend on how games one and two go. If Arroyo fairs good to excellent he will get the ball, but Wood would be on regular rest, and if he shuts the Phils down again, it would give Dusty the option of going with him in the elimination game. This game would be against Oswalt who the Reds have knocked around this season, that bodes well, but still the pitcher could be an x-factor based on how things went earlier in the season)

ol'Sparky
09-30-2010, 02:24 PM
homer won't make the roster !

brm7675
09-30-2010, 03:33 PM
homer won't make the roster !

how does homer NOT make the roster?

Todd Gack
09-30-2010, 03:55 PM
The Red Sox pitched guys like Tim Wakefield and Ramiro Mendoza before Bronson in the playoffs for a reason. Power pitchers are better suited for the playoffs and I believe the Phillies will shell Bronson in his start there. While Wakefield isn't a power pitcher, he is a knuckleballer so he's an unorthodox type of starter.

PhillipsHead
09-30-2010, 04:00 PM
You all can speculate...but i can already tell you Dusty's rotation:

Arroyo
Cueto
Volquez
Wood

In that order...he'll go with season results and loyalty over stats vs. the opponent...

brm7675
09-30-2010, 04:59 PM
You all can speculate...but i can already tell you Dusty's rotation:

Arroyo
Cueto
Volquez
Wood

In that order...he'll go with season results and loyalty over stats vs. the opponent...

Then Wood should go no. 1 against the Phils. Look at Woods numbers against them and against teams with strong left handed hitters.

UPRedsFan
09-30-2010, 05:19 PM
You all can speculate...but i can already tell you Dusty's rotation:

Arroyo
Cueto
Volquez
Wood

In that order...he'll go with season results and loyalty over stats vs. the opponent...

I think you're 100% correct. He won't pitch Wood and leave the veterans on the bench. But I think he should have a quick trigger if any one of them gets in trouble early.

IndyReds1977
09-30-2010, 05:35 PM
I am surprised that nobody has suggested a 3 man rotation. The schedule sets up for the game 1 starter to come back in game 4 on full rest.

Should be:
Arroyo
Wood
Cueto

Volquez and Bailey in pen to jump in long relief at first sign of trouble.

But it probably won't be...

brm7675
09-30-2010, 05:45 PM
I am surprised that nobody has suggested a 3 man rotation. The schedule sets up for the game 1 starter to come back in game 4 on full rest.

Should be:
Arroyo
Wood
Cueto

Volquez and Bailey in pen to jump in long relief at first sign of trouble.

But it probably won't be...

Why not go with a 4 or 5 man if they are all about equal?

justincredible
09-30-2010, 05:57 PM
I'd go Wood, Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez.

IndyReds1977
09-30-2010, 07:16 PM
Why not go with a 4 or 5 man if they are all about equal?

I suppose it's all the same. I know sometimes guys coming back off of too much rest seem flat. Arroyo has said in the past that he enjoys working on 3 days rest, so in a potential game 5 to possibly be flat because of too much rest would obviously not be a good thing. I don't know. I'm glad I don't have to make the decision, LOL.

defender
09-30-2010, 07:36 PM
A lot of good info. Based on the home/road splits, it makes sense to have Cueto and Volquez in games 3 & 4. However, Cueto pitched his last game yesterday, and Arroyo is pitching his last today. It looks like Baker is lining them up for games 1 & 2. Volquez would probably go 3. If a loss in game 4 would eliminate them, I think, Arroyo pitches. I guess Wood is the 4th starter, based on his great start.

brm7675
09-30-2010, 07:52 PM
You left out one very key important factor....PRAY FOR THE BASEBALL GODS TO SHINE DOWN ON US..

SYCMiniBus
09-30-2010, 11:27 PM
A lot of good info. Based on the home/road splits, it makes sense to have Cueto and Volquez in games 3 & 4. However, Cueto pitched his last game yesterday, and Arroyo is pitching his last today. It looks like Baker is lining them up for games 1 & 2. Volquez would probably go 3. If a loss in game 4 would eliminate them, I think, Arroyo pitches. I guess Wood is the 4th starter, based on his great start.


The Reds haven't changed their rotation. Every pitcher has been on regular rest. Odds are the first game is Wednesday, so Arroyo will be able to do that on plenty of rest, and then an off day followed by a game on Friday gives Baker any pitcher he want on regular or extra rest.

liminal
10-01-2010, 01:52 AM
I'd be really nervous about putting Cueto on the mound in Philly. Bad memories from that horrendous start he had there last year.

757690
10-01-2010, 03:03 AM
Wood has faced the Phillies once. Once. He is a rookie with a total 96 major league innings under his belt. He should be in the pen for the playoffs. Too much pressure.

I like Cueto, Arroyo, Volquez, then Bailey if/when a 4th starter is needed.

brm7675
10-01-2010, 11:16 AM
Wood has faced the Phillies once. Once. He is a rookie with a total 96 major league innings under his belt. He should be in the pen for the playoffs. Too much pressure.

I like Cueto, Arroyo, Volquez, then Bailey if/when a 4th starter is needed.

How many 'big games" have Cueto, Volquez or Bailey pitched in?

Cincinnati 8
10-01-2010, 02:00 PM
The Reds against the Phillies make me think of David against Goliath. But you got to play the game on the field. I just hope the Reds can take the big dogs down. That would be something special. Go Cincy (We are TEAM)

Cincinnati 8
10-01-2010, 02:03 PM
By the Way, I would go with Woods, Arroyo, Volquez, Cuerto, in that order

'69 & Vine
10-01-2010, 02:07 PM
Arroyo, Woods, Cueto, Volquez...

Great info and post SYCMiniBus!

Will be interested to see how much weight those numbers/ logic have with the powers that be.

757690
10-01-2010, 08:19 PM
How many 'big games" have Cueto, Volquez or Bailey pitched in?

They have at least spent a whole season in the majors.

I like Wood's toughness and his ability. I am just worried about starting any rookie pitcher in a playoff game.

huber14
10-01-2010, 08:24 PM
They way this weekends rotation is set it looks like it will be Arroyo, Cueto, Wood, Volquez

Kingspoint
10-02-2010, 01:11 AM
If we play Philadelphia:
(assuming no rainouts)
NLDS Game 1: CIN @ PHI Wednesday, October 6..........Bronson
NLDS Game 2: CIN @ PHI Friday, October 8..........Volquez
NLDS Game 3: PHI @ CIN Sunday, October 10.........Cueto (good at home)
NLDS Game 4*: PHI @ CIN Monday, October 11..........Bronson
NLDS Game 5*: CIN @ PHI Wednesday, October 13........Volquez


If we play San Francisco/San Diego (our loss tonight guaranteed we'll start on the road):
(assuming no rainouts)
NLDS Game 1: CIN @ NLW Thursday, October 7.........Bronson
NLDS Game 2: CIN @ NLW Friday, October 8............Volquez
NLDS Game 3: NLW @ CIN Sunday, October 10.........Cueto (good at home)
NLDS Game 4*: NLW @ CIN Monday, October 11.........Bailey
NLDS Game 5*: CIN @ NLW Wednesday, October 13.........Bronson or Volquez (whoever pitched better their first game)


Wood can be used for emergency/long relief.

Altsciguy
10-02-2010, 09:27 AM
Put the big guy out there first in philly, Bronson. We need NEED to win at least 1 in philly so game 2 is Wood, lefty looked good IN philly earlier this year. Then come home with one maybe two wins and use cueto? I am less concerned here but if we go to game 5 in philly I want Wood again! I really think Wood will be the key to this first series. Unless our other top left handed starter gets hot.

BLEEDS
10-02-2010, 01:52 PM
I personally like Volquez and Cueto against the Phils. Seems like they've both had GREAT games against them in the past. For whatever reason they just match up well versus their lineups.

any combination of Arroyo/Cueto/Volquez would be good. I'm sure Wood will get a shot because of his numbers against them this year.

Might as well play the Big Boys right away! Then we in the Drivers Seat!

PEACE

-BLEEDS