PDA

View Full Version : Arroyo wants to stay in Cincinnati



OnBaseMachine
10-01-2010, 07:07 PM
From Hal McCoy:


Asked if he wants to come back, he said, Yes, of course. Id like to be here for a few more years. We have a young club with the opportunity for success down the road and Im comfortable in my surroundings and I enjoy the city. Id like to be here for at least three more, but it all depends on what they want.

Read the rest:
http://www.daytondailynews.com/o/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/index.html

Chip R
10-01-2010, 07:10 PM
Wouldn't mind signing him to a Rolen type deal.

HokieRed
10-01-2010, 07:23 PM
Don't see any reason to go beyond next year and even that should be carefully thought out by the FO. I'm in favor of his coming back next year, but even then he blocks the development of one of Leake, Wood, Chapman, Volquez, or Bailey, assuming Arroyo and Cueto are where your rotation would start.

redsfandan
10-01-2010, 07:26 PM
I'm not crazy about Arroyo at $11M for 2011 if his option is picked up. But it would be hard for me to say no to a Rolen type deal for Arroyo. Chapman should see more time as a starter in the minors before he gets a place in the Reds rotation. And one of the other young starting pitchers (Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Wood, Leake) might bring back a decent return in a trade.

HokieRed
10-01-2010, 07:29 PM
Of Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Wood, and Leake, Leake is the only one I'd even think of trading to keep a spot for Bronson.

PuffyPig
10-01-2010, 07:34 PM
Go into next season with 6 starters plus Chapman.

Our depth at starting pitching was what won us the division.

The Cards lack of depth in the same area cost then the division.

RedsManRick
10-01-2010, 07:35 PM
According to Cot's, "2011 option may increase to $13M based on IP."

Does anybody know the details on that? If it's true, I'd find it hard to believe he didn't hit the IP total.

redsfandan
10-01-2010, 07:43 PM
According to Cot's, "2011 option may increase to $13M based on IP."

Does anybody know the details on that? If it's true, I'd find it hard to believe he didn't hit the IP total.
Good point Rick. I'm disappointed that I missed that line. Makes picking up that option even less likely.

oneupper
10-01-2010, 07:43 PM
Bronson is a guy you try to keep. Durable. He's aging like fine wine.
The value of crafty has increased in this era of weening off PEDS.

The detail is in the money. I hope they can find something that works, but Votto and Bruce should be the first priority.

VR
10-01-2010, 08:26 PM
Of Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Wood, and Leake, Leake is the only one I'd even think of trading to keep a spot for Bronson.

I've been struggling with this for awhile.

Arroyo isn't glamorous.....but there is little doubt that he'll provide 220IP, 12-16 wins next year.

I don't think any of the other arms are even close to betting on for that.




BUT, it's a great stable of arms....and I honestly want to see them all in Cincy.

pedro
10-01-2010, 08:35 PM
I wouldn't count on Homer Bailey to do much of anything. He's got a lot of talent but I have almost zero confidence that he'll put it together in time to be counted on next year.

OnBaseMachine
10-01-2010, 08:47 PM
Homer Bailey actually has solid peripherals this season - 7.79 K/9 and 3.20 BB/9. I think he's a solid breakout candidate next season.

Oxilon
10-01-2010, 09:11 PM
Homer Bailey actually has solid peripherals this season - 7.79 K/9 and 3.20 BB/9. I think he's a solid breakout candidate next season.

It seems Bailey is poised for a 'breakout year' almost every year. And, as people have mentioned in the past, what are Bailey's numbers without facing the Pirates? I may be jumping the shark, but I really don't feel confident about Bailey's future. He seems like a slightly better version of Juan Cruz, but that's just me.

Regarding Arroyo though, I'd love to have him back. Reliable veteran pitchers who garble up 200 innings a year don't grow on trees. With that said, didn't he say he won't take a discount with his next contract and is looking for a hefty pay raise? If that's the case, see-ya later Arroyo. If the Reds are going to spend a boat load of money on a pitcher, they might as well go all the way and spend for a legit ace and not a #3.

HokieRed
10-01-2010, 11:40 PM
I've been struggling with this for awhile.

Arroyo isn't glamorous.....but there is little doubt that he'll provide 220IP, 12-16 wins next year.

I don't think any of the other arms are even close to betting on for that.




BUT, it's a great stable of arms....and I honestly want to see them all in Cincy.

I'm all for keeping Bronson one year, but probably not beyond that.

Ghosts of 1990
10-01-2010, 11:52 PM
Leave Chapman in the pen, try to trade Mike Leake for a bat.

Go with: Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Wood.

fearofpopvol1
10-01-2010, 11:52 PM
I want the Reds to pick up Arroyo's option for next year, but I wouldn't extend him beyond that.

I think it would be good to have a guy who is a lock for production next year as we don't know really yet about Chapman/Bailey. Heck, even Leake struggled. I'd rather have a guarantee with Arroyo pitching in the 2 or 3 spot with Cueto and Wood.

reds44
10-01-2010, 11:54 PM
Leave Chapman in the pen, try to trade Mike Leake for a bat.

Go with: Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Wood.
There's no reason to trade Leake for a bat. That's what Alonso's for. It's not like Leake is getting expensive anytime soon. You're not going to go an entire season with 5 starters. If he's not better then Bailey or Wood you send him to AAA. No harm no foul. I bet Chapman starts the year in AAA as well.

11 mil or 13 mil, Arroyo will be back.

OnBaseMachine
10-01-2010, 11:55 PM
It seems Bailey is poised for a 'breakout year' almost every year. And, as people have mentioned in the past, what are Bailey's numbers without facing the Pirates? I may be jumping the shark, but I really don't feel confident about Bailey's future. He seems like a slightly better version of Juan Cruz, but that's just me.

Regarding Arroyo though, I'd love to have him back. Reliable veteran pitchers who garble up 200 innings a year don't grow on trees. With that said, didn't he say he won't take a discount with his next contract and is looking for a hefty pay raise? If that's the case, see-ya later Arroyo. If the Reds are going to spend a boat load of money on a pitcher, they might as well go all the way and spend for a legit ace and not a #3.

Bailey had less than stellar peripherals in previous seasons. This year they are very solid. If his peripherals are any indications, 2011 could be a breakout season for Bailey.

HokieRed
10-01-2010, 11:56 PM
There's no reason you to trade Leake for a bat. That's what Alonso's for. It's not like Leake is getting expensive anytime soon. You're not going to go an entire season with 5 starters. If he's not better then Bailey or Wood you send him to AAA. No harm no foul. I bet Chapman starts the year in AAA as well.

11 mil or 13 mil, Arroyo will be back.

Agree. Except I wouldn't trade Alonso. I expect next year's opening rotation to be Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey, Volquez, and Wood. Chapman and Leake in AAA, but Chapman not for long.

reds44
10-02-2010, 12:00 AM
Agree. Except I wouldn't trade Alonso. I expect next year's opening rotation to be Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey, Volquez, and Wood. Chapman and Leake in AAA, but Chapman not for long.

You wouldn't trade him this offseason or you wouldn't trade him period?

HokieRed
10-02-2010, 12:12 AM
You wouldn't trade him this offseason or you wouldn't trade him period?

I'd prefer not to trade him period, but I certainly wouldn't trade him until it's 100% clear he can't play left field or that Votto can't be persuaded to do so--or, at the very least, until Votto is signed longer term.

deltachi8
10-02-2010, 12:13 AM
I wouldn't count on Homer Bailey to do much of anything. He's got a lot of talent but I have almost zero confidence that he'll put it together in time to be counted on next year.

agreed. He may have shown enough though to lead a trade offer for a missing part.

Caveat Emperor
10-02-2010, 12:57 AM
I'd pick up the option and actively investigate extending him for 3 more years. I wouldn't break the bank to do it, but if Arroyo can be had for somewhere in the 3/27 - 3/30 range, I'd pull the trigger.

Young pitching is great, but I don't like the idea of building a staff out of all youngsters. Plus, Arroyo locked down in the #3/#4 hole frees the team to trade a young starter for help elsewhere -- like a solution at SS.

The Operator
10-02-2010, 01:31 AM
Wouldn't mind signing him to a Rolen type deal.Wasn't Bronson quoted earlier this year as saying he absolutely would not give The Reds a hometown discount?

reds1869
10-02-2010, 01:38 AM
Wasn't Bronson quoted earlier this year as saying he absolutely would not give The Reds a hometown discount?

Yes he was. Winning, however, might change the equation. It all comes down to the balance of money vs. on-field success Arroyo is comfortable with.

KronoRed
10-02-2010, 02:19 AM
Pick up the option and see what happens, if all of the kids get it then you give him a pat on the back and let someone else pay him 12 million in 2012.

Phhhl
10-02-2010, 02:55 AM
I get the feeling that if Arroyo only contributed as a fifth starter for this talented staff next season he would be worth his raise as a mentor and an innings eater. But, he is obviously going to perform better than that, so it is a no-brainer to pick it up. There is a finite end to his large contract, so he is not an open ended albatross. It is next year, and then it is over if he implodes in 2011. That makes it a lot easier to justify than something like Aaron Harang, for instance, or maybe even Brandon Phillips. Bronson experienced a career high in wins this season, and his whip stands at 1.17. His effectiveness has absolutely nothing to do with maximum effort, he has a rubber arm and I don't know that he has missed a single start as a Red. That is an overwhelming argument for his value. He is just about the safest 10+ million dollars a baseball team can spend. Plus, he has been a great ambassador for the franchise since coming to terms that the Red Sox jobbed him out of his dream gig 4 years ago.

There will be no drama about the Reds exercising Arroyo's option this winter.

GAC
10-02-2010, 05:45 AM
They'll pick up that club option for 2011 on Bronson. Especially with Harang's contract being gone.

mth123
10-02-2010, 10:55 AM
The last 6 seasons in a row Arroyo has logged more than 200 innings. In general, they have been competitive innings with well better than league average results. Many are concerned about the K Rate, but his worst results over that time was the season with the highest K Rate. Competitive teams need a starting staff that can lay down a backbone of competitive innings and Arroyo provides that. On this team, with this collection of youngsters who still could end up going in lots of directions Arroyo providing a stable, dependable while unspectacular spot in the rotation seems like a necessity for one more season. Would I rather have a number 1 starter in his slot? Sure. Are the Reds going to get one? Not a snowballs chance. Lets see if one (or more) of the kids can make the step to that level but lets keep Arroyo in place for another season. As for how to fit them all in. Chapman either needs a full season in a minor league rotation to build innings and add to his assortment of pitches or he won't be a viable starter over a long season IMO. He's not a guy for the 2011 rotation. He's either in the AAA rotation or he stays in the pen as the successor to Arthur Rhodes in 2011 and the eventual closer when Cordero leaves town. Leake only managed 138 IP in 2010 and really wasn't very effective after the first 75 or so. He's another guy who needs to spend the year in AAA in 2011 to build innings and stamina. In 2012, he should be ready to assume Arroyo's role as steady middle of the rotation arm.

One idea might include Chapman staying in the pen. Guys like Rivera and Papelbon were only going to the pen at first to cut their teeth while making a spot for such talented arms on a crowded staff. In both cases they stayed put in relief and became deadly weapons. I'm thinking more and more that Chapman may follow that same route. As the kids grow-up and become more expensive, its unlikley that the Reds will be able to go get players from the outside to replace the higher priced guys who leave. The money will go toward raises for the ones already here. After this year, Harang, Lincoln, Rhodes and maybe Cabrera are cleared from the books. After next it will be Arroyo, Cordero and Hernandez. Long term deals for Votto, Bruce, Stubbs, Cueto, and Volquez along with the built in raises for Phillips and Chapman and the rising cost of guys who will be nearing arb after 2012 like Wood, Leake, Bailey etc. probably eat that up. Following the bullpen route for Chapman might lead to a staff that evolves like this for the next couple years.

2011

Volquez
Wood
Arroyo
Cueto
Bailey

Lecure (Swingman)
Bray LHMR
Ondrusek RHMR
Burton RHMR
Masset RHSU
Chapman LHSU
Cordero CL

2012
Volquez
Bailey
Wood
Cueto
Leake

Lecure (Swingman)
Bray LHMR
Smith RHMR
Ondrusek RHMR
Joseph LHSU
Masset RHSU
Chapman CL

11larkin11
10-02-2010, 11:49 AM
Arroyo won't take the home town discount because thats how he got screwed in Boston. He took the discount, then they traded him.

mth123
10-02-2010, 11:54 AM
Arroyo won't take the home town discount because thats how he got screwed in Boston. He took the discount, then they traded him.

Agreed. He'll be 34 in February. One season at the option price is all the Reds should do for now unless he does give a huge discount (bigger than the one Rolen gave). After 2011, the Reds should have a better idea of how the kids will go and they can decide if they want to try to extend Arroyo then.

Caveat Emperor
10-02-2010, 12:00 PM
Arroyo won't take the home town discount because thats how he got screwed in Boston. He took the discount, then they traded him.

A no-trade clause solves that problem.

Bigger issue for Arroyo is that he'll be 34 at the start of next season. I'm bullish on Arroyo's production as he hit's the back-9 on his 30s (he strikes me as a kind of RH Jamie Moyer), but he knows that the odds say this will be his last chance to really cash in on a deal.

I think the Reds can get him cheaper than the open market and signed to a fair deal, but I don't think it'll be a team-friendly contract.

alexad
10-02-2010, 01:53 PM
You have to have a vetern in this rotation. He does not have to be a number 1, but Arroyo fits that bill for next year. He is a 17 game winner. His price tag next year is pretty cheap for 17 game winners. See how the younger guys do next year with Arroyo in the rotation and then make a decision after that. Volquez appears to be the number 1 of the future. There are a ton of decisions to make next year. Does Chapman start in the rotation or does he set up for a year or become the closer. We have him for 5 more years locked up.

You have to decide if Bailey is going to be in the rotation or use him as trade bait, if he has much value.

Arroyo
Volquez
Cueto
Woods
Chapman, Bailey or Leake

I think Leake has to be in the mix, he proved he can pitch up here.

Maybe you let Arroyo go and use that money for a big time bat. 12 million can get that bat in the open market. Would Crawford come to Cincy for 12 million a year?

redsfandan
10-02-2010, 02:51 PM
I think Leake has to be in the mix, he proved he can pitch up here.

Maybe you let Arroyo go and use that money for a big time bat. 12 million can get that bat in the open market. Would Crawford come to Cincy for 12 million a year?
I doubt anyone will get Crawford at that price. I also think Leake has to be in the mix. I'd be a little surprised if they put him in AAA after he started this year with the Reds and did so well early on.

fearofpopvol1
10-02-2010, 11:02 PM
Interesing: http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/entries/2010/10/01/arroyo_wants_to_stay_in_cincin.html


“Compared to some other guys in the game, my salary isn’t that hefty. I know this isn’t the biggest market in the world. I know I’m not going to get $15 million a year like Derrick Lowe did and my numbers are as good as his,” said Arroyo, who was 17-10 this year, his third straight season of 15 or more victories and sith straight year of more than 200 innings.

And


“They have to pick up my option, no matter what, even if they planned to trade me,” he said. “They have to pick it up. If they let me walk for free ($2 million), they’d be giving me a huge lottery ticket. And they wouldn’t get anything for me. But just because they pick it up doesn’t mean I’ll be here.”

_Sir_Charles_
10-02-2010, 11:52 PM
Resign him. Absolutely. I know we've got a bunch of arms. So what? We had a bunch of them THIS season too and we managed to work it out. He's simply too durable and too unique to not work something out. Get him signed and work out the details of the rotation later. Odds are, they'll work themselves out.

Slyder
10-03-2010, 12:46 AM
There's no reason to trade Leake for a bat. That's what Alonso's for. It's not like Leake is getting expensive anytime soon. You're not going to go an entire season with 5 starters. If he's not better then Bailey or Wood you send him to AAA. No harm no foul. I bet Chapman starts the year in AAA as well.

11 mil or 13 mil, Arroyo will be back.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3131988

A wary warning from times not so long ago. I do bring Arroyo back and I do see about the potential of adding another year to the deal with a no trade clause.

WVRedsFan
10-03-2010, 12:51 AM
I wouldn't count on Homer Bailey to do much of anything. He's got a lot of talent but I have almost zero confidence that he'll put it together in time to be counted on next year.Two of us, but I have the same fear about Cueto and Volquez. I got raked for this in another thread a few weeks ago, but you have to hope Cueto matures and Volquez improves. I like the stability of Arroyo and I personally think Leake will someday win 20. And the sky's the limit for Chapman. I keep them all and smile all the time I'm doing it.

Cedric
10-03-2010, 12:54 AM
Homer isn't even 24 right?

This year has been great for him. He is due for a huge breakout next year. I would expect much more from him than Cueto or Leake next year.

His periphreals this year have been outstanding.

OnBaseMachine
10-03-2010, 12:57 AM
Two of us, but I have the same fear about Cueto and Volquez. I got raked for this in another thread a few weeks ago, but you have to hope Cueto matures and Volquez improves. I like the stability of Arroyo and I personally think Leake will someday win 20. And the sky's the limit for Chapman. I keep them all and smile all the time I'm doing it.

Volquez is just a little over a year removed from Tommy John surgery. We should be happy with how he pitched after returning. He struggled early on but was one of the best pitchers in baseball during September. The Reds were lucky to get anything out of him this season considering he had surgery last August.

As for Cueto, he posted a 110 ERA+ this season, meaning he was an above average starter. Nothing to complain about there, IMO.

WVRedsFan
10-03-2010, 12:59 AM
Homer isn't even 24 right?

This year has been great for him. He is due for a huge breakout next year. I would expect much more from him than Cueto or Leake next year.

His periphreals this year have been outstanding.And we all hope for that. My problem is he doesn't show that great improvement we saw from Cueto and Volquez from year 1 to year 2. I still keep him, though and hope you are right.

OnBaseMachine
10-03-2010, 01:02 AM
And we all hope for that. My problem is he doesn't show that great improvement we saw from Cueto and Volquez from year 1 to year 2. I still keep him, though and hope you are right.

Cueto did show improvement this season. His walk rate dropped from 3.2 last season to 2.7 this season, and he also allowed five fewer home runs in more innings pitched.

Did you really expect Volquez to come back and improve immediately after returning from Tommy John surgery?

fearofpopvol1
10-03-2010, 01:03 AM
Two of us, but I have the same fear about Cueto and Volquez. I got raked for this in another thread a few weeks ago, but you have to hope Cueto matures and Volquez improves. I like the stability of Arroyo and I personally think Leake will someday win 20. And the sky's the limit for Chapman. I keep them all and smile all the time I'm doing it.

I feel fine about those 2. I'm more concerned about Chapman and possibly Leake and Bailey. Leake dominated, but then the league caught up. Can he adjust? Chapman's control is still a question mark as is his secondary pitches. I think he needs more seasoning at AAA. Bailey looks poised to succeed at this point, but I'd like to see him do it for a little bit longer before I pencil him in as a sure thing.

Brutus
10-03-2010, 01:07 AM
Homer isn't even 24 right?

This year has been great for him. He is due for a huge breakout next year. I would expect much more from him than Cueto or Leake next year.

His periphreals this year have been outstanding.

You've been somewhat rough on Cueto, and I admit I don't get it. Especially in this instance, you're talking about Homer, but yet Cueto is nearly a mirror image.

They're within 3 months of being the exact same age (both are 24).

ERA

Cueto 3.64
Bailey 4.59

FIP

Cueto 3.98
Bailey 3.88

K/9

Cueto 6.69
Bailey 7.79

BB/9

Cueto 2.71
Bailey 3.20

HR/9

Cueto 0.92
Bailey 0.95

GB%

Cueto 41.7%
Bailey 41.4%

LD%

Cueto 19.4%
Bailey 20.5%


If you're seeing differences, I'm struggling to find them. They're nearly identical of one another. Bailey has perhaps a slightly higher ceiling, but Cueto has been pretty consistent, and he improved his FIP and xFIP both this year over last season.

Cedric
10-03-2010, 01:45 AM
You've been somewhat rough on Cueto, and I admit I don't get it. Especially in this instance, you're talking about Homer, but yet Cueto is nearly a mirror image.

They're within 3 months of being the exact same age (both are 24).

ERA

Cueto 3.64
Bailey 4.59

FIP

Cueto 3.98
Bailey 3.88

K/9

Cueto 6.69
Bailey 7.79

BB/9

Cueto 2.71
Bailey 3.20

HR/9

Cueto 0.92
Bailey 0.95

GB%

Cueto 41.7%
Bailey 41.4%

LD%

Cueto 19.4%
Bailey 20.5%


If you're seeing differences, I'm struggling to find them. They're nearly identical of one another. Bailey has perhaps a slightly higher ceiling, but Cueto has been pretty consistent, and he improved his FIP and xFIP both this year over last season.

That is the point. One person is talked about like a future Cy Young winner and the other is ripped at almost all times. I don't think either is heading to great heights anytime soon. I'll take the guy with a k/9 that is increasing and not the guy with a scary k/9 anytime.

westofyou
10-03-2010, 01:56 AM
Homer Bailey
Innings Pitched 104
Runs Allowed 54
Innings Started 108
Runs in Those Innings 56

Shutout Innings 74
One-Run Innings 18
Two-Run Innings 11
Three-Run Innings 4
Four-Run Innings 1

Got First Man Out 68
Runs Scored in Those Innings 19
Runs/9 Innings 2.51

First Man Reached 40
Runs Scored in Those Innings 37
Runs/9 Innings 8.33

1-2-3 Innings 43
10-pitch Innings (or less) 17
Long Innings (20 or more pitches) 35
Failed to Finish Inning 6


Cueto

Innings Pitched 185.2
Runs Allowed 79
Innings Started 190
Runs in Those Innings 79
Shutout Innings 144
One-Run Innings 28
Two-Run Innings 11
Three-Run Innings 4
Four-Run Innings 1
Five-Run Innings 1
Eight-Run Innings 1
Got First Man Out 136
Runs Scored in Those Innings 30
Runs/9 Innings 1.99
First Man Reached 54
Runs Scored in Those Innings 49
Runs/9 Innings 8.17
1-2-3 Innings 73
10-pitch Innings (or less) 34
Long Innings (20 or more pitches) 52
Failed to Finish Inning 6

Brutus
10-03-2010, 02:03 AM
That is the point. One person is talked about like a future Cy Young winner and the other is ripped at almost all times. I don't think either is heading to great heights anytime soon. I'll take the guy with a k/9 that is increasing and not the guy with a scary k/9 anytime.

I don't see the differences you're referring to, with regard to talking about one like he's a Cy Young and the other being ripped. Both have received just due on this board.

This last statement:


I'll take the guy with a k/9 that is increasing and not the guy with a scary k/9 anytime.

You'll have to explain that one to me. They've got barely 1 k per nine inning difference. That's only 22 strikeouts over 200 innings. Not really a discernible number. I like that Homer's strikeout rates continue to go up--that's encouraging for sure. But if you look at OBM's new post, it's interesting that Cueto has the second highest swing% on the team.

6.7 k/9 is not at all "scary." That's a solid number to be at. It gets scary only when you dip below 6 or more. On the aggregate, Cueto threw 6 more strikeouts this year in 13 more innings. That's not something to be concerned by.

If Cueto is a 3.98 FIP guy for his career, that's something to be pleased about. It's not "ace" material, but it sure is a good middle-of-the-rotation starter or any other starter for that matter.

OnBaseMachine
10-03-2010, 02:04 AM
I remember Cueto making a quote after his start in Oakland in June where he said he had been watching Arroyo and Leake pitch and that he was going to start trying to emulate them by relying on his defense more rather than trying to strike everyone out. That may explain the drop in his K/9. Check out the stats: Cueto's K/9 was a very solid 7.57 prior to his start in Oakland. After that his K/9 dropped to 6.69 for the season. I think he's learned that he doesn't have to throw 96 every time and try to blow it past every body and instead has focused on becoming more efficient.