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View Full Version : Travis Wood has reached his "max" inning for the season.



Kingspoint
10-01-2010, 09:18 PM
2007...46.1 IP
2008...126.2 IP
2009...167.2 IP
2010...202.2 IP

He's now 5 innings over the "30+" rule. Last season he went beyond the 30+ rule by 6 innings. There was nothing wrong with the 126.2 IP in 2008 as it's generally accepted that any pitcher should be able to go 126 innings in one season regardless of how many they pitched the year before.

This includes tonight's outing against Milwaukee.

Don't assume that just because a pitcher looks great in his last start that there isn't an effect from stretching the arm too far during any one season. The effect takes place the following seasons. Too many young pitchers have been in this position right now and they've usually been used during the playoffs only to have their careers become a shadow of what was hoped for them.

It's time to shut down Travis Wood for the season as a Starter and put him in the pen. There's no reason to risk the next 8 seasons of this 2005 2nd Round pick on a post-season that's likely to end during the first round.

One alternative is to shut him down altogether.

Another is to risk using him as a Starter and perhaps giving hip 7, 13, 20, 26, or even 31 more innings on the season. That would really increase the risk factor on him sustaining arm problems for the rest of his career.

Natty Redlocks
10-01-2010, 09:35 PM
Yes. They rode Bailey too hard last season for no reason and paid the price. I doubt they'll shut him down but they should.

757690
10-01-2010, 10:28 PM
2007...46.1 IP
2008...126.2 IP
2009...167.2 IP
2010...202.2 IP

He's now 5 innings over the "30+" rule. Last season he went beyond the 30+ rule by 6 innings. There was nothing wrong with the 126.2 IP in 2008 as it's generally accepted that any pitcher should be able to go 126 innings in one season regardless of how many they pitched the year before.

This includes tonight's outing against Milwaukee.

Don't assume that just because a pitcher looks great in his last start that there isn't an effect from stretching the arm too far during any one season. The effect takes place the following seasons. Too many young pitchers have been in this position right now and they've usually been used during the playoffs only to have their careers become a shadow of what was hoped for them.

It's time to shut down Travis Wood for the season as a Starter and put him in the pen. There's no reason to risk the next 8 seasons of this 2005 2nd Round pick on a post-season that's likely to end during the first round.

One alternative is to shut him down altogether.

Another is to risk using him as a Starter and perhaps giving hip 7, 13, 20, 26, or even 31 more innings on the season. That would really increase the risk factor on him sustaining arm problems for the rest of his career.

This rule was developed by an ESPN writer and really isn't used religiously in the majors. It's good rule of thumb, but there is no evidence to support this in terms of exact innings pitched or starts made.

I still would like them to put him in the pen, but I'm not too worried about his arm if they don't.

Kingspoint
10-01-2010, 11:46 PM
This rule was developed by an ESPN writer and really isn't used religiously in the majors. It's good rule of thumb, but there is no evidence to support this in terms of exact innings pitched or starts made.

I still would like them to put him in the pen, but I'm not too worried about his arm if they don't.


This rule was thought up by me more than a decade before any ESPN writer (probably some time during the 80's) wants to try to claim it.

I'm sure many other people came to the same conclusions as I did during the early to mid '70's.

Nobody told me about it, referenced it, or gave any ideas to me about it. It just seemed to be something that was obvious to me after reading over the careers of 1000's of pitchers.

Kingspoint
10-01-2010, 11:53 PM
As dougdirt mentioned on another site, Jockety has been good about protecting his pitchers, so Jockety will probably not let him start another game. It's hard to resist, and it's something that will be discussed heavily when the "powers that be" get together to discuss the playoff rosters. Dusty, of course, wants him available at all costs. His job is to win now.

If this were the old Dodgers organization they would use him and start him because they always had an endless line of up-and-coming starting pitchers to take someone's place.

While the REDS have now entered into the top-half of pitching-rich organizations, they don't have the luxury to take a chance at ruining what could be a cornerstone of this franchise for the next 6-7 years.

757690
10-02-2010, 12:22 AM
This rule was thought up by me more than a decade before any ESPN writer (probably some time during the 80's) wants to try to claim it.

I'm sure many other people came to the same conclusions as I did during the early to mid '70's.

Nobody told me about it, referenced it, or gave any ideas to me about it. It just seemed to be something that was obvious to me after reading over the careers of 1000's of pitchers.

Well congratulations then. That's cool. :)

But I still don't think it needs to be adhered to strictly. It's a very wise rule of thumb, and makes sense, but I think a one or two more starts isn't going to be a big deal. One thing we have learned over the years about pitch counts and innings for pitchers is that each pitcher is different, and there is not hard set number that fits all of them.

Still I agree it's smart to shut him down, just not sure it's imperative.

Kingspoint
10-02-2010, 01:44 AM
But I still don't think it needs to be adhered to strictly. It's a very wise rule of thumb, and makes sense, but I think a one or two more starts isn't going to be a big deal. One thing we have learned over the years about pitch counts and innings for pitchers is that each pitcher is different, and there is not hard set number that fits all of them.

Still I agree it's smart to shut him down, just not sure it's imperative.

That's why I think it will be a very, very interesting meeting amongst the brass of the REDS. Would love to be a fly in that room.

I have a lot of faith in Walt Jockety, and "if" he gets to make the final decision, then I'm all for backing it up regardless of what the outcome brings.

Vottomatic
10-02-2010, 02:58 AM
He'll be fine. This is all a bunch of nonsense at this point.

If this were August, then I'd consider it, but it's playoff time.

He should be in the postseason rotation.

Kingspoint
10-02-2010, 03:40 AM
He'll be fine. This is all a bunch of nonsense at this point.

If this were August, then I'd consider it, but it's playoff time.

He should be in the postseason rotation.

Career-ending/lessening injuries brought on by overuse aren't non-sense.

There are 1000+ pitchers who would like to say, "Hello" to you.

Vottomatic
10-02-2010, 03:51 AM
Career-ending/lessening injuries brought on by overuse aren't non-sense.

There are 1000+ pitchers who would like to say, "Hello" to you.

And Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux say "Hello" to you.

It's a frickin' crapshoot.

But enjoy your mumbo jumbo "max" innings thingy.

Kingspoint
10-02-2010, 06:09 AM
And Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux say "Hello" to you.

It's a frickin' crapshoot.

But enjoy your mumbo jumbo "max" innings thingy.

Thankfully, you aren't involved professionally with the organization.

Altsciguy
10-02-2010, 08:07 AM
an obvious philly fan not wanting to face Wood in the post season. Rest him after philly series but not before. I think Wood will be key in the philly series, looking at past performance, and the philly line up. After this series we may be able to work around Wood more but certainly not before philly.

UPRedsFan
10-02-2010, 10:24 AM
I agree. Give him one start against Philadelphia and then shut it down. I'd even take him off the roster if they beat Philly and put Harang on for the long man.

Kiss the Baby00
10-02-2010, 11:10 AM
Thankfully, you aren't involved professionally with the organization.

Could you kindly tell me what the point of baseball is if we arent going to run one of our best three pitchers out there in the playoffs? Again, what is the point of Wood even playing baseball at all if he is just going to pack it in right now. There is little to no chance that Wood will be shut down and not make a playoff start. Id bet a LOT on it.

UC_Ken
10-02-2010, 11:42 AM
We're in the playoffs for the first time in 15 years, if he gives you the best chance to win you pitch him. The odds of a 6 inning playoff start being the difference between a healthy next season or not is extremely small. He's over the mythical 30 IP anyway so according to the theory the damage is already done.

I also think due to the effortlessness of his delivery he'll be pretty good throughout his career at avoiding injuries. I'd put him in that Maddux/Glavine style more than some of the power pitchers who have blown their arms out.

will5979
10-02-2010, 12:00 PM
I'm willing to risk long term injuries in order to win, I'm a win at all costs guy, Travis Wood is not above the Reds, everyone is expendable and we can always draft/sign/or trade for another starter.

Kiss the Baby00
10-02-2010, 12:07 PM
I'm willing to risk long term injuries in order to win, I'm a win at all costs guy, Travis Wood is not above the Reds, everyone is expendable and we can always draft/sign/or trade for another starter.

except votto and chapman

will5979
10-02-2010, 12:08 PM
except votto and chapman
granted

will5979
10-02-2010, 12:13 PM
It's time to shut down Travis Wood for the season as a Starter and put him in the pen. There's no reason to risk the next 8 seasons of this 2005 2nd Round pick on a post-season that's likely to end during the first round.

God this attitude makes me sick, yeah lets just settle for what we have done, a whoping damn NL Central Crown with a walk-off homerun, "whohooooo greatest day ever as a Reds fan", give me a break people. I can name at least 10 other moments in Reds history that trumps that hr the other night. And the rest of you are fine with pissing away a chance at another banner hanging in the outfield then whohoooo to you. I want a World Series ring or bust. If that means one or two guys pays the ultimate sacrifice for that ring, so be it, the glory is forever. I don't want a 3 and done postseason cause I'm afraid to risk the injury of one of my starters, what if the Reds dont make the postseason for another 15 years? DO you really thin Travis Wood is going to be much of significance then? You don;t save a pitcher for tomorrow, it may rain.

Vottomatic
10-02-2010, 12:20 PM
We're in the playoffs for the first time in 15 years, if he gives you the best chance to win you pitch him. The odds of a 6 inning playoff start being the difference between a healthy next season or not is extremely small. He's over the mythical 30 IP anyway so according to the theory the damage is already done.

I also think due to the effortlessness of his delivery he'll be pretty good throughout his career at avoiding injuries. I'd put him in that Maddux/Glavine style more than some of the power pitchers who have blown their arms out.

Good post. Good to see others with some common sense.

Vottomatic
10-02-2010, 12:21 PM
Thankfully, you aren't involved professionally with the organization.

......or you either. Everyone involved would quit.

Natty Redlocks
10-02-2010, 12:58 PM
At least when they put him at risk by overusing him this year, it will be for a good reason, instead of the misguided attempt to finish the season over .500 of a year ago.

Seriously, though, you ignore history at your peril. Is there a guarantee he'll be injured or ineffective next year if they pitch him much more this year? No. But it's an observable, predictable pattern in young pitchers and calling it nonsense and a crapshoot is just ignorant.

Kiss the Baby00
10-02-2010, 02:09 PM
i also think it is a terrible idea to go by IP. Pitches thrown would be a much more accurate indicator. IP could vary ridiculously.

Vottomatic
10-02-2010, 02:21 PM
At least when they put him at risk by overusing him this year, it will be for a good reason, instead of the misguided attempt to finish the season over .500 of a year ago.

Seriously, though, you ignore history at your peril. Is there a guarantee he'll be injured or ineffective next year if they pitch him much more this year? No. But it's an observable, predictable pattern in young pitchers and calling it nonsense and a crapshoot is just ignorant.

It is a crapshoot.

Why did some pitchers in the past throw 250-300 innings and have 20 year careers and others blow out their arms in one or two seasons?


Greg Maddux
1987 - 155 IP
1988 - 249
1989 - 238
1990 - 237
1991 - 263
1992 - 268
and so on and so on......and was still throwing close to 200 IP in his last season of 2008

Randy Johnson
1989 - 160 IP (age 25)
1990 - 219
1991 - 201
1992 - 210
1993 - 255
1994 - 172
1995 - 214
1996 - 61
1997 - 213
1998 - 244
1999 - 271
....and so on and so on........and threw 184 IP in 2008.......

Nolan Ryan
1971 - 152
1972 - 284
1973 - 326
1974 - 332 IP
1975 - 198
1976 - 284
1977 - 299
1978 - 234
......amazing his arm didn't fall off in 1975.........he pitched until 1993.....and threw 130 more innings in 1972 than he did in 1973...........

I could find a bunch of examples.

Pitchers get injured, period. And there is not necessarily a scientific reason for it. Could be throwing motion or plenty of other things.

Anyway.............I just came back and edited this post. I realized I'm crabby today. I worked 5 days 50 hours (get up at 5:30 in the morning) hanging drywall for my construction company. I DJ'ed Tuesday, Thursday, Friday nights until 2 a.m. I have to DJ tonight again. I'm frickin' tired. Picked my kids up on Monday night and did their homework with them (I'm divorced). Went to bed on Wednesday at 4:30 in the afternoon and woke up at 8:30. Slept until Noon today. I'm worn out and crabby. Sorry to all I've insulted.

Gotta pick my kids up for church in the morning and then spend all day with them, which I love. Just a busy life.

Kingspoint
10-02-2010, 03:55 PM
You can't think like a child and just go with "I want it now!".

You have to think like an adult and look at the whole picture, with long-term being just as important as now.

Kingspoint
10-02-2010, 04:13 PM
More likely, the REDS will decide that they'd love to have Wood pitch against the Phillies on the road in game 2, and they could risk 6 more innings. After that, they can shut him down. That would be 41 innings more than last year, an amount they could live with. But, another series and another two starts and they are now talking about 54 innings more than last season. That's just too much risk.

Wood activated for the 1st series, and if the REDS advance, he gets replaced for the next series.

AintlifeGrande
10-02-2010, 04:30 PM
The need for a lefty starter is paramount to have a chance versus the Phils.Innings pitched be damned .I'm in Vottomatic's corner about the IP.I'll take a hall of famer Ryan's belief over our idea's of innings pitched.Wood is also a southpaw,so less stress on his throwing arm.

Natty Redlocks
10-02-2010, 04:55 PM
The stress today's pitchers put their arms through is much greater than it was in the good ol days. That's a reality that's not going to change. Again, ignore this reality at your peril.

Kiss the Baby00
10-02-2010, 05:22 PM
The stress today's pitchers put their arms through is much greater than it was in the good ol days. That's a reality that's not going to change. Again, ignore this reality at your peril.

This is a broad statement, lacking facts or reason to give it any merit.

Natty Redlocks
10-02-2010, 05:58 PM
This is a broad statement, lacking facts or reason to give it any merit.

Nuh uh

Kingspoint
10-02-2010, 06:15 PM
This is a broad statement, lacking facts or reason to give it any merit.

25 years ago a pitcher who threw 90 mph was considered a flame-thrower.

Now that guy's struggling to make it in A-ball.

50 years ago pitchers regularly doctored the ball allowing them to not have to use their arm to do all of the work.

75 years ago, most pitchers spent their childhoods on farms getting up before sunrise and doing chores, coming home from school and doing chores, doing chores 7 days a week, and spending all summer doing hard farm labor. During their free time that they'd squeeze in, they'd play baseball, as everyone played baseball all the time. A child's body, legs and arms were better conditioned for stamina and strength. That, along with the ability to doctor the ball, gave them the ability to pitch 400 innings during the season, a common feat back then.

There's a world of difference, as Natty Redlocks pointed out, between the stresses on today's pitcher's arms and those of times past.

That's a fact.

kfm
10-02-2010, 06:26 PM
I'm willing to risk long term injuries in order to win, I'm a win at all costs guy, Travis Wood is not above the Reds, everyone is expendable and we can always draft/sign/or trade for another starter.

While I am all for giving wood another start, I could not disagree with this post more. I hope this is sarcasm, if not it is just a pathetic attitude. Gladly the Reds do not share this disgusting point of view. I truly hope you don't actually mean this, it is like you are saying lets ruin a guys career because who cares we can get another. Sad, just sad.

Kingspoint
10-02-2010, 06:36 PM
I'm willing to risk long term injuries in order to win, I'm a win at all costs guy, Travis Wood is not above the Reds, everyone is expendable and we can always draft/sign/or trade for another starter.

That was the philosophy of the Dodgers organization for decades, as they had the longest and deepest pipeline for pitchers. They don't any more and no longer have that philosophy. It's not even close to the same organization anymore.

It worked for the Dodgers, though.

The list of Managers who learned under this philosophy were:

Lasorda
Craig
Baker

and, many, many others.

Baker is changing though. He's said as much in his comments this season.

Walt Jockety is not of that philosophy, thankfully.

Kingspoint
10-02-2010, 06:44 PM
i also think it is a terrible idea to go by IP. Pitches thrown would be a much more accurate indicator. IP could vary ridiculously.

Actually, that's what they go by now, not necessarily innings pitched. It was just easier before to look at innings pitched as that number was available and pitches thrown were not.

Kingspoint
10-02-2010, 06:47 PM
......or you either. Everyone involved would quit.

Pretty much everything that's happened with the REDS since O'Brien took over is exactly how I would have done things.

I'm in complete agreement with the direction of the organization since the hiring of O'Brien.

Continuing that line of progression would be to secure the health of one of our best players for the years 2011-2017.

It's not about "one attempt" to win a World Series, but about "repeated attempts" to win a World Series.

Kingspoint
10-02-2010, 06:53 PM
The need for a lefty starter is paramount to have a chance versus the Phils.Innings pitched be damned .I'm in Vottomatic's corner about the IP.I'll take a hall of famer Ryan's belief over our idea's of innings pitched.Wood is also a southpaw,so less stress on his throwing arm.

You have to go back to what 757690 said,

But I still don't think it needs to be adhered to strictly. It's a very wise rule of thumb, and makes sense, but I think a one or two more starts isn't going to be a big deal. One thing we have learned over the years about pitch counts and innings for pitchers is that each pitcher is different, and there is not hard set number that fits all of them.

Travis Wood isn't Wilbur Wood (last pitcher to pitch two complete games in a double-header) and he's not Kerry Wood, either. He'll be evaluated based on everything that they know about him. But, it will be a very, very investigative process. They will make a decision based on risk versus "an alternative". With Walt having already shown that he's in the corner of "preservation", then if they decide that Wood can go, then it will probably be a safe decision.

Vottomatic
10-02-2010, 07:42 PM
Page 3 of this thread is titled "The Kingspoint Page".

Vottomatic
10-02-2010, 07:42 PM
Nuh uh

Yuh huh

:D

Tampa Red
10-03-2010, 06:10 AM
Another is to risk using him as a Starter and perhaps giving hip 7, 13, 20, 26, or even 31 more innings on the season. That would really increase the risk factor on him sustaining arm problems for the rest of his career.

I, for one, would be thrilled if Travis Wood pitches another 31 innings for the Reds this season.

My belief is that you prepare for these situations in advance so that you can utilize the player when you really need him. Whether purposely or not, the Reds have done this with Wood. He has thrown 100 pitches in only 5 of his 16 starts (101, 102, 103, 109, 112). He has been given extra days between starts a couple of times. He hasn't pitched since September 25.