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WVRed
10-02-2010, 10:06 PM
This may sound crazy, but I would rather face the Phillies than making a west coast road trip.

1. Unlike the Giants and Padres, we have played the Phillies well. Even when we got swept before the All Star break, it wasn't like we laid down and quit. Two of the games our bullpen blew in the ninth, one was a perfect game broken up in the 9th that we lost in extras, and the other was a 1-0 loss. Not exactly humiliating. And we did take two of three in Cincinnati as well.

2. The Philly fans could work in our favor, IF we beat Roy Halladay in game one. If the Phillies drop game one, we don't need to write a book on how the fans will react. If we take game one, we have had Oswalt's number of late, and its possible we could be up 2-0 heading back to Cincinnati.

3. The Reds are a younger team than Philly, although this would probably work in a longer series. Youth does bring inexperience, but we are going to be more fresh for a pennant chase than some of the veterans on Philly's roster. If our youth can play like veterans and not give it up, we could have an interesting series.

4. The Phillies bashers come mostly from the left side (Howard and Utley specifically), and we have somebody to neutralize that in late innings in Aroldis Chapman.

Homer Bailey
10-02-2010, 10:24 PM
Does anyone think it would be better to face the Phillies in a 5 game series than it would a 7 game series? I do, somewhat.

edabbs44
10-02-2010, 10:25 PM
Does anyone think it would be better to face the Phillies in a 5 game series than it would a 7 game series? I do, somewhat.

No.

Phhhl
10-02-2010, 10:29 PM
Even though they lost 2 of 3 in San Diego last time, that was a tight series too. So, if it falls that way it wouldn't be so bad. What I can't understand is how the Giants tee'd off on the Reds pitching staff so bad in San Francisco. They are not exactly an offensive juggernaut, but it didn't seem to matter who the Reds ran out to the mound. We got shallacked. Just because of the freakish nature of that series, I probably dread San Francisco than any of the others going into the postseason.

Homer Bailey
10-02-2010, 10:33 PM
No.

My reasoning is that it seems the Phillies will have the starting pitcher advantage in every single game, and we have a much better chance of beating them the smaller the sample size.

RedsManRick
10-02-2010, 10:34 PM
They actually had a great argument for this in last night's broadcast. The 5 game series has greater variance than a 7 game series. That is, the more games you play, the more likely it is for the better team to win the majority of them.

If you're a worse team, you probably want the shorter series. This is especially true if the schedule is such that you can go 1-2-3-1-2-3-1 in the 7 gamer.

Beat Philly in the DS and you don't have to face them in the CS.

edabbs44
10-02-2010, 10:41 PM
My reasoning is that it seems the Phillies will have the starting pitcher advantage in every single game, and we have a much better chance of beating them the smaller the sample size.

My reasoning is as follows:

1) They are lined up to pitch one of their top 3 guys in every game in a 5 game series. Might not happen in the next rd. Depending on how the NLDS falls, that isn't a guarantee in the NLCS. Blanton could be a player in the NLCS which would scare the hell out of the Philly fan base.

2) Lose the first 2 in Philly in the NLDS and you are in serious trouble. Not as much so in the NLCS.

3) Anything can happen, as we know, and maybe SF could take out Philly in the first rd with their pitching.


Why I'd rather they play Philly? I live in Jersey.

edabbs44
10-02-2010, 10:43 PM
They actually had a great argument for this in last night's broadcast. The 5 game series has greater variance than a 7 game series. That is, the more games you play, the more likely it is for the better team to win the majority of them.

If you're a worse team, you probably want the shorter series. This is especially true if the schedule is such that you can go 1-2-3-1-2-3-1 in the 7 gamer.

Beat Philly in the DS and you don't have to face them in the CS.

While that is true, do you think that would hold true when you are facing those 3 pitchers in a 5 game series b/c of their ability to set up for this series? And then taking into acct their lack of that same ability in the 2nd round?

RedsManRick
10-02-2010, 10:47 PM
While that is true, do you think that would hold true when you are facing those 3 pitchers in a 5 game series b/c of their ability to set up for this series? And then taking into acct their lack of that same ability in the 2nd round?

Well, it depends. Does a 7 game series make it any better? I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Philly go 3 man rotation either way. I know I'd rather face Halladay 2/5 than 3/7.

edabbs44
10-02-2010, 10:50 PM
Well, it depends. Does a 7 game series make it any better? I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Philly go 3 man rotation either way. I know I'd rather face Halladay 2/5 than 3/7.

And if they go 3 man in the NLCS, they'd be going on short rest rather than full rest in the NLDS.

Brutus
10-02-2010, 11:11 PM
I'd rather have to beat the Phillies 3 times than 4. That should be a no-brainer. The more you have to play them, the tougher it gets to win the series.

That said, my ultimate preference is to play San Diego in the first round. I think they're the lesser of all evils. I believe the Reds match up a little better with them. Plus, if they win tomorrow, they will have come off 3 (possibly even 4 if they go Monday) must-win games in a row. It will be tougher for them to regain focus after all that, in my honest opinion.

So I prefer the Phillies in 5 to 7, but I prefer San Diego to Philly in 5.

kaldaniels
10-02-2010, 11:34 PM
I have next to no expertise in statistics, but the following is a fact.

Lets say the Reds have a 45 percent chance on a given night to beat the Phils.

If that is a given, if the Reds and Phils played 100 5-game series and 100 7-game series, the Reds would win more of the 5 game series than they would win 7-game series.

Just remember that when shaping your opinions.

15fan
10-03-2010, 12:15 AM
Was at the Braves / Phillies game tonight.

Ryan Howard looks completely lost at the plate.

kaldaniels
10-03-2010, 12:34 AM
Was at the Braves / Phillies game tonight.

Ryan Howard looks completely lost at the plate.

http://www.lifeisajoke.com/simpsons/magnets/Mr-Burns-Excellent.bmp

Ron Madden
10-03-2010, 12:39 AM
I'd think it would be a little easier to beat the Phillies 3 times rather than 4 times.

Brutus
10-03-2010, 01:22 AM
Was at the Braves / Phillies game tonight.

Ryan Howard looks completely lost at the plate.

You must not have gone over to Turner yesterday when he went 2-for-5.

He OPS'd .977 in September and had previously hit in 13 of his last 15 games. Not picking on you, but ah the dangers of relying too much on one game.

Phhhl
10-03-2010, 01:43 AM
Howard is such a slugger. The problem is, he's the prototype and he is darn good at his job. Aroldis is perfect for him, and I think our guy stands an excellent chance of winning those matchups this October. I fear Utley much more than Howard in late innings because his mechanics are so ridiculously controlled. Utley waits until the pitch is on top of him before unleashing the most devastating jab since Cascius Clay. The best description I can think of for Utley's swing is a ping pong backhand by the best player on the Chinese International team. If we face Philadelphia at any point this postseason, a confrontation between Chapman and Utley is pre-ordained as a turning point. It has the potential of competing with Bob Welch and Reggie Jackson as one of the most entertaining duels in modern baseball history.

reds44
10-03-2010, 03:00 AM
I'd think it would be a little easier to beat the Phillies 3 times rather than 4 times.
Isn't it easier to beat anybody 3 times rather than 4? lol

Ron Madden
10-03-2010, 03:04 AM
Isn't it easier to beat anybody 3 times rather than 4? lol

Yep, that's the point. ;)

On page one of this thread the question was ask if you would rather play the Phill's in a 5 game series or a 7 game series?

OnBaseMachine
10-03-2010, 08:01 PM
With the Giants three outs away from finishing off the Padres, it's now locked in that the Reds will play the Phillies in the NLDS. I preferred facing the Giants or Padres in the NLDS but that's not going to happen. The Phillies scare the heck out of me with their great offense and pitching, but if the Reds can find a way to win one of the first two games in Philly I will feel pretty good about our chances of advancing to the NLCS. Winning one of those first two games is a must, IMO.

Phhhl
10-03-2010, 08:12 PM
With the Giants three outs away from finishing off the Padres, it's now locked in that the Reds will play the Phillies in the NLDS. I preferred facing the Giants or Padres in the NLDS but that's not going to happen. The Phillies scare the heck out of me with their great offense and pitching, but if the Reds can find a way to win one of the first two games in Philly I will feel pretty good about our chances of advancing to the NLCS. Winning one of those first two games is a must, IMO.

No need to fear. All week I got the vibe from watching the pre and post game shows, and the comments of the people around the team, that the Reds actually wanted this. They seemed much more concerned about going out west again. We shall see what happens, but if the team is confident that this is the way to go, I am certainly on board!