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View Full Version : Playoff Rotation: Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto.



Redsfan320
10-03-2010, 12:20 PM
Per Fay.

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Redsfan320
10-03-2010, 12:21 PM
CRAP. MY BAD. Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto. Sorry.

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Redsfan320
10-03-2010, 12:22 PM
This was actually per Groeschen. I'm sorry guys. I failed in my haste.

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Tommyjohn25
10-03-2010, 12:23 PM
Thread title fixed!

Redsfan320
10-03-2010, 12:30 PM
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Now I ask... WHERE THE HECK IS WOOD??? :angry::angry::angry:

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mbgrayson
10-03-2010, 12:34 PM
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Now I ask... WHERE THE HECK IS WOOD??? :angry::angry::angry:

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Per Mark Sheldon (http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/10/nlds_rotation_set.html), Dusty speaking about Travis Wood's game vs. Philly:

"That was the first time they saw him, too. Not to take anything away from him," Baker said. "They didn't have Utley. They didn't have Polanco. They didn't have Ruiz. And they were scoring runs at the time. He's a gutsy kid but he and Homer are probably the least experienced too. If we can get him a game, he'd be more prepared to start the next time if there is a next time."

UKFlounder
10-03-2010, 12:35 PM
The bullpen?

Philly's "slash line" this year was actually higher against lefties than against righties, so it may not be unreasonable to not start him against their lineup (Besides, he's already thrown more innings than last year, so maybe they don't want to start him any more.)


Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Now I ask... WHERE THE HECK IS WOOD??? :angry::angry::angry:

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Ghosts of 1990
10-03-2010, 12:41 PM
I don't like this one bit. Cueto's arm is fatigued I believe. Bailey and Wood have been so much better over their last several starts. Cueto is the kind of guy who might allow Philly to build a huge early lead and the bullpen gets burnt up. At least he's starting game 3.

Reds Fanatic
10-03-2010, 12:41 PM
This is what Dusty had to say about Bailey and Wood:

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/10/03/playoff-rotation-volquez-arroyo-cueto/


“They’re our two least experienced (starters), so they will be out of the bullpen,” Baker said. “Wood gives us potentially four lefties in the bullpen. …Plus, if we can get him in a game, he’d be more prepared to start the next time, if there is a next time.”

Reds Fanatic
10-03-2010, 12:43 PM
If it turns about to be Philly I worry about Arroyo versus that lefty heavy lineup. They were talking about this on the Fox game yesterday. Lefties are hitting .285 this year against Arroyo.

mbgrayson
10-03-2010, 12:44 PM
The other thing I like about having Travis Wood in the pen is that his first three or four innings each game have been dominent. The huge majoirty of the runs he gives up are in innings 5-7.

Dusty also says there will be 11 pitchers on the playoff 25 man roster. He says both Wood and Bailey will be in the pen, or possible game 4 or 5 starters. That leaves only six slots for relievers, my guess as to who makes the cut:
1. Francisco Cordero
2. Nick Masset
3. Arthur Rhodes
4. Bill Bray
5. Logan Ondrusek
6. Ardolis Chapman

The Voice of IH
10-03-2010, 12:45 PM
I was hoping Volquez, Wood, Arroyo, and then Cueto, but the three that have been chosen are dang good. and it should be a fun run.

OnBaseMachine
10-03-2010, 12:59 PM
If it turns about to be Philly I worry about Arroyo versus that lefty heavy lineup. They were talking about this on the Fox game yesterday. Lefties are hitting .285 this year against Arroyo.

Agreed. The Phillies are a nightmare matchup for Arroyo with all those lefties. I can't believe Travis Wood is not in the playoff rotation. He should be in there, especially if they play the Phillies, IMO.

camisadelgolf
10-03-2010, 01:05 PM
People are surprised that Volquez got picked for game one, but wasn't Arroyo the one who said he'd prefer not to pitch on opening day? If so, I'm guessing that was the biggest factor.

RedsManRick
10-03-2010, 01:05 PM
Very disappointing. I know Arroyo was going to have be in there, but Wood has been our most effective starter, bar none.

NC Reds
10-03-2010, 01:16 PM
I thought Wood earned his spot in the playoff rotation. I guess not.

membengal
10-03-2010, 01:17 PM
I think when the Reds make the NLCS, he is added to the rotation. In the meantime, some extra rest for his arm given his workload this year is not the worst idea in the world at all.

westofyou
10-03-2010, 01:22 PM
Very disappointing. I know Arroyo was going to have be in there, but Wood has been our most effective starter, bar none.
Yep, he'll be the 1st out of the pen if the LH's eat Bronson's lunch

dougdirt
10-03-2010, 01:32 PM
I thought Wood earned his spot in the playoff rotation. I guess not.

I thought Bailey did as well.... but the Reds have a surplus of pitching right now that actually plays to their disadvantage in the playoffs.

Redsfan320
10-03-2010, 01:33 PM
Everything Dusty said about wood was Bull. Pure bull. Not that it wasn't factually correct (1st time seeing him, inexperienced), it was just bull.

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reds44
10-03-2010, 01:50 PM
We're going with a three man rotation in the first round. If we advanced to the NLCS, he'll be in the rotation.

Meanwhile, this gives the Reds four lefties out of the bullpen to bring in to face the Utley/Howard/Ibanez portion of the lineup.

Wood doesn't deserve to be in the rotation over Cueto, and Dusty decided to go with expierence with Arroyo. I can't believe people are up in arms about this.

Puffy
10-03-2010, 01:53 PM
We're going with a three man rotation in the first round. If we advanced to the NLCS, he'll be in the rotation.

Meanwhile, this gives the Reds four lefties out of the bullpen to bring in to face the Utley/Howard/Ibanez portion of the lineup.

Wood doesn't deserve to be in the rotation over Cueto, and Dusty decided to go with expierence with Arroyo. I can't believe people are up in arms about this.

Me neither. But the forum coaches gotta coach......

reds44
10-03-2010, 01:53 PM
Phillies as a team:
vLHP: .269/.339/.429/.767
vRHP: .257/.330/.407/.737

SirFelixCat
10-03-2010, 02:00 PM
We're going with a three man rotation in the first round. If we advanced to the NLCS, he'll be in the rotation.

Meanwhile, this gives the Reds four lefties out of the bullpen to bring in to face the Utley/Howard/Ibanez portion of the lineup.

Wood doesn't deserve to be in the rotation over Cueto, and Dusty decided to go with expierence with Arroyo. I can't believe people are up in arms about this.

Totally agree. This is the correct rotation, imo. :shrug:

LoganBuck
10-03-2010, 02:03 PM
I would love to see Wood pitch in the playoffs, but I am really worried about his workload. He is already on the Verducci Effect watch list for next year, and he has not been as effective recently, now that the scouting report has gotten around the league. He has still been good. I can't argue with the decision to run Volquez, Arroyo, and Cueto out ahead of him. The other thing to remember is that if the Reds do get the Phillies, the playoff schedule sets up to lean on the bullpen. Four lefties could be a nightmare matchup for the Phillies.

mth123
10-03-2010, 02:12 PM
At this point only Volquez is clearly above the others. I was in favor of Wood over Cueto, but I can certainly see the logic in this combo as well. I wonder if Rhodes health is a factor. Having Wood and Bray in the pen might make Rhodes a Loogy in this series. Come in and get a lefty or two and get out of there. Wood in the pen may allow Rhodes to be used in shorter stints to keep his pain in check.

Ron Madden
10-03-2010, 02:12 PM
I'm really glad Dusty is going with Volquez in game one and I'm fine with Arroyo and Cueto in games two and three.

It'll be nice to be able to bring guys like Bailey and Wood out of the bullpen to snuff out rallies.

redsfandan
10-03-2010, 02:25 PM
I thought Bailey did as well.... but the Reds have a surplus of pitching right now that actually plays to their disadvantage in the playoffs.
To their disadvantage? Obviously 3 really good starting pitchers is worth more than 5 good ones in the playoffs. But, having Wood/Bailey available to help if Arroyo (or Volquez/Cueto) do have any trouble is nice too.

pedro
10-03-2010, 02:31 PM
I think Wood has more value out of the BP than Arroyo does so from that aspect I think it is a good move.

dougdirt
10-03-2010, 02:39 PM
To their disadvantage? Obviously 3 really good starting pitchers is worth more than 5 good ones in the playoffs. But, having Wood/Bailey available to help if Arroyo (or Volquez/Cueto) do have any trouble is nice too.

The disadvantage comes from our starting depth of 5 truly quality starters. In the playoffs, we don't get to use that and other teams who don't have 5 true quality guys don't get punished as long as they have 2-3 good ones.

TheNext44
10-03-2010, 02:50 PM
It seems to me, from Dusty's quotes, that experience was the most important factor in this decision. Considering how different the playoffs are from the regular season, and how close the pitchers are in talent, i can't argue against it. It's not like Josh Fogg was chosen over Wood.

And while Wood has pitched well enough to start in the playoffs, he has around 100 innings pitched in the majors. It's hard to say anyone would know his true ability yet.

WebScorpion
10-03-2010, 03:52 PM
That Dusty Baker dude got this team of youngsters to the playoffs. I promised not to second guess him in the playoffs if he got us here. I will just sit back and admire his misunderstood genius.

We have a playoff rotation. :eek:
We have a PLAYOFF rotation! :D
WE HAVE A PLAYOFF ROTATION!!!! http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-cool05.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)

hebroncougar
10-03-2010, 03:55 PM
Disappointing to me.........I'd have thrown Wood. Here's hoping we get to the NLCS.

cincinnati chili
10-03-2010, 04:12 PM
Disappointing but not surprising. In fairness to Dusty, he knows Wood a lot better than I do. Protecting Wood's psyche would be a better reason than Arroyo's experience. The only thing Arroyo has proven in the playoffs is that elite offenses (esp. with lefties) can torch him.

Also if we're going to talk "experience," Arroyo has post-season bullpen experience. Wood does not.

Oh, and do we know for sure that Wood will even be on the 1st round roster?

mth123
10-03-2010, 04:46 PM
Disappointing but not surprising. In fairness to Dusty, he knows Wood a lot better than I do. Protecting Wood's psyche would be a better reason than Arroyo's experience. The only thing Arroyo has proven in the playoffs is that elite offenses (esp. with lefties) can torch him.

Also if we're going to talk "experience," Arroyo has post-season bullpen experience. Wood does not.

Oh, and do we know for sure that Wood will even be on the 1st round roster?

We don't know for sure, but Dusty was quoted saying Wood and Bailey would be in the pen.

TheNext44
10-03-2010, 05:08 PM
We don't know for sure, but Dusty was quoted saying Wood and Bailey would be in the pen.

On FSOhio, Dusty also said that Wood would start if/when a 4th starter was needed, which could happen in the NLDS with an injury or early exit from someone.

_Sir_Charles_
10-03-2010, 05:21 PM
This is something I'm simply not going to get worked up about. All 5 of our starting pitchers had solid cases for being in the post season rotation. 2 were going to be disappointed. ANY of the 5 would've been good choices.

traderumor
10-03-2010, 06:28 PM
Arroyo is well known for his trouble with lefties, but he has clearly been our most consistent starter all year. It is really a no-brainer that he is one of the three starters in a five game series.

Wood is shaky, has been for awhile and has no stamina, but he has been very effective one time through the lineup. I could see him giving us an inning against lefties if Dusty gets itchy trigger finger in a close game.

fearofpopvol1
10-03-2010, 06:28 PM
I can understand holding back Wood in series 1 (even though I'd prefer to see him in there), but why not pitch Cueto 2 and Arroyo 3? I would be much more comfortable with that. The idea of Arroyo having to pitch twice against the Phillies if the series goes deep doesn't inspire me.

paulrichjr
10-03-2010, 06:40 PM
Does anyone remember 1990 and the Pirates starter in game 6? I will never forget thinking how foolish Leyland was, and then the Reds end up scoring only 2 in the game.... Of course they ended up on top.

WVRed
10-03-2010, 07:22 PM
So here's the matchups:

Game 1: Roy Halladay (21-10 2.44 ERA) vs Edinson Volquez (4-3 4.31 ERA)
Game 2: Roy Oswalt (13-13 2.76 ERA) vs Bronson Arroyo (17-10 3.88 ERA)
Game 3: Cole Hamels (12-11 3.06 ERA) vs Johnny Cueto (12-7 3.64 ERA)

wheels
10-03-2010, 07:58 PM
Does anyone remember 1990 and the Pirates starter in game 6? I will never forget thinking how foolish Leyland was, and then the Reds end up scoring only 2 in the game.... Of course they ended up on top.

Ted Power, right?

bucksfan2
10-03-2010, 08:38 PM
Arroyo is well known for his trouble with lefties, but he has clearly been our most consistent starter all year. It is really a no-brainer that he is one of the three starters in a five game series.

Lets be honest Arroyo was going to pitch in the post season. It really shouldn't have shocked anybody to see him get the nod. I think he is the pitcher that makes the most sense. I put more faith in Arroyo to go late into the game than any other pitcher on the Reds staff.

I think starting Volquez first is a great move. To be honest no one in the Reds rotation has the stuff that Halladay has. No one has shown the ability to work deep into games the way Halladay has. But on any given night Volquez can go out there with the best stuff around. He can pitch 6-7 great innings and it wouldn't surprise you. He also has the freshest arm out of any of the Reds starters. If anyone can throw up zeros on the board like Halladay can, its Volquez.

As for Cueto I would have leaned towards Wood or Bailey. I worry with Johnny about him letting the moment become too big. I worry about him getting too amped up. I also wonder if his arm is starting to tire a little bit. Lets not forget all the time Homer spend on the DL this year, making his arm more strong right now. Its a judgement pick and I don't have any real adversion to that pick.

cincinnati chili
10-03-2010, 09:23 PM
Does anyone remember 1990 and the Pirates starter in game 6? I will never forget thinking how foolish Leyland was, and then the Reds end up scoring only 2 in the game.... Of course they ended up on top.

I'm surprised more managers don't throw "bullpen games" in the postseason. It would have been interesting if the Padres had made the playoffs given the fact that they had 3 or 4 lights-out arms in the bullpen and iffy starters.

Particularly when teams do strict platoons, I'd be up for seeing more trickery like starting a lefty pitcher, drawing a totally right handed lineup, and then bringing in a starting righty pitcher in the second inning.

BCubb2003
10-03-2010, 09:44 PM
So two of the three Reds starters have better won-loss records than their Phillies counterparts. Of course, wins aren't the best measurement ...

The Operator
10-03-2010, 09:47 PM
This doesn't bother me much at all.

Wood has been great but I've noticed lately, he really seems to hit a wall around 70-80 pitches. So that may have played a role in the decision too.

Having two reliable starters in the bullpen may prove to be really valuable. Remember, this is the postseason, and the hooks for starting pitchers are generally a LOT quicker. Think Danny Jackson being pulled in Game 2 of 1990, then after Scott Scudder works out of his jam - Jack Armstrong comes in and shuts the A's down for 3 innings. This is why having Wood and Bailey in the bullpen will be so great.

Can't complain about the rotation at all. Volquez has the highest upside, if he's on, he can match Halladay. Arroyo was going to be there, he won 17 games and pitched over 200 innings of sub-4 ERA ball. No manager anywhere is going to skip a guy with those numbers in his postseason rotation, whether his peripherals are eye popping or not. It just doesn't happen. And Cueto, well, he's had a great season. He's had some bouts of inconsistency but he really did break out this year.

No matter what, we're heading into this series as underdogs of all underdogs. Even Aaron Boone, the biggest ESPN Reds supporter, said today he expects us to get swept in 3.

So let's just trusty in Dusty. He's gotten us this far.

kaldaniels
10-04-2010, 12:31 AM
Run this test 100 times...

If you had a 5-sided die with each of the Reds 5 starters on it, and rolled that die till it rolled 3 of the starters names, the majority of the results would yield a reasonable playoff rotation.

Dan
10-04-2010, 08:06 AM
Princeton always used to say "coddle thy pitchers." Sounds to me like that's what's going on with the decision regarding Wood and Bailey. Not a bad decision in my mind. This team is going to be in the playoff hunt for years to come.

paulrichjr
10-04-2010, 11:55 AM
Ted Power, right?

Yep. I don't remember this being done since in the playoffs.

OesterPoster
10-04-2010, 01:47 PM
Hadn't seen this quote from Bryan Price about Volquez's mechanics until today. From Sheldon's article on reds.com:



"There was a real strong feeling that Volky was tipping his pitches when his hands were set higher," Reds pitching coach Bryan Price said. "We dropped his hands down and it helped in two ways: He's not tipping pitches, No. 1. No. 2, it allows his timing to get his hands in the throwing position.

"It affects his timing in a positive way. When he was scattered with his command, his arm wasn't ready to throw the ball when it needed to be. He couldn't stay on top of the ball."

REDREAD
10-04-2010, 01:53 PM
It's a given that Arroyo would be in the playoff rotation. He deserves it..
215 IP and 17 wins, plus his leadership, plus the guy has experience.
It would be a travesty to leave him off the playoff roster. Dusty would look like a fool for doing if he did not have Arryo in the rotation.

Cueto also makes sense.. He's another big reason we made the playoffs. He helped us all year.

To me, the only question was Wood or Volquez.. Both were only here part of the year, both are somewhat of an unknown. I wouldn't have a problem with either choice.. Heck, I guess you can throw Bailey in this catagory as well.
Volquez finished pretty strong, so the choice makes sense.

Really, Dusty is doing this by the book.. putting the 2 least experienced guys in the pen.. Volquez has the highest upside of all the third starter candidates, so I can see why he was picked. What Dusty said about the Phils lineup when Wood pitched against them makes sense as well.

VR
10-04-2010, 05:27 PM
Run this test 100 times...

If you had a 5-sided die with each of the Reds 5 starters on it, and rolled that die till it rolled 3 of the starters names, the majority of the results would yield a reasonable playoff rotation.

Great point Kal.

_Sir_Charles_
10-04-2010, 06:49 PM
Run this test 100 times...

If you had a 5-sided die with each of the Reds 5 starters on it, and rolled that die till it rolled 3 of the starters names, the majority of the results would yield a reasonable playoff rotation.

Exactly how I feel too. Any of the 5 have earned shots.

wheels
10-04-2010, 07:24 PM
Why do we have to wait until Wednesday?

Let's get rolling!

Eric_the_Red
10-04-2010, 07:41 PM
Why do we have to wait until Wednesday?

Let's get rolling!

1 day, 22 hours, 26 minutes....

kaldaniels
10-04-2010, 09:04 PM
Will Arroyo braid/dread his hair...wasn't that something he did for the playoffs in Boston? Or did he have that style all season long?

OnBaseMachine
10-04-2010, 11:47 PM
Fangraphs on the Reds-Phillies series:


This probably isnít going to be a cake walk for the Phillies. Halladay-Hamels-Oswalt make them the favorites, but this series will likely be a lot more competitive than people expect. Donít sleep on the Reds. Theyíre a good baseball team.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-reds-are-coming/

The Operator
10-05-2010, 02:39 AM
Hey, a news outlet giving The Reds a fighting chance. How bout that.

I like being the underdog. They weren't supposed to win a single game in 1990 against The A's and they beat the living tar out of them. That Phillies team can be beat.

OnBaseMachine
10-11-2010, 05:18 PM
Johnny Cueto was very impressive last night, IMO. I thought he handled himself very well in his first postseason start. He had all the pressure in the world on his soulders - first playoff start, elimination game, facing a tough Phillies lineup ... and he holds them to one earned run in five innings. Johnny really showed me something last night. He's a keeper, IMO.

The Reds pitching staff held the Phillies to 7 ER in three games, and three of those ER could have easily been ruled unearned too. Great job by the Reds pitching staff. They did their job.