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Scrap Irony
10-05-2010, 11:48 PM
Catcher
Ruiz v. Hernandez/ Hanigan
Edge: Ruiz
Comment: Ruiz is better with the bat, but Hanigan and Hernandez are both superior with the glove. I'm guessing Baker goes with Hernandez all series; Manuel will certainly stick with Ruiz. That may mean the difference in the series. Hopefully, Phillips, Stubbs, and company can run on Ruiz and his 29% CS percentage.

First Base
Votto v. Howard
Edge: Votto
Comment: How ironic would it be for Votto to win the series against the Phillies? Manuel might not like it, but, hey, he's a moron for picking Howard instead of Votto for the ASB roster anyway, right? Right.

Second Base
Phillips v. Utley
Edge: Utley
Comment: It's close, largely because Utley hasn't been phenomenal this year. It would have been even closer (perhaps even) had Phillips not been injured and struggled the past three weeks of the season.

Shortstop
Cabrera v. Rollins
Edge: Rollins
Comment: Even though it's been his worst year statistically, Rollins is still head and shoulders better than OCab. It's not close, nor should it be.

Third Base
Rolen v. Polanco
Edge: Rolen
Comment: As large as the divide between Cabrera and Rollins. Rolen has been vitally important to Cincinnati. He needs to be the Rolen of the first half for the Reds to have any chance in the series.

Left Field
Gomes v. Ibanez
Edge: Ibanez
Comment: Barely. Ibanez can't catch up to a fastball anymore and God knows he's had problems in the field, but Gomes grades slightly worse across the board.

Center Field
Stubbs v. Victorino
Edge: Stubbs
Comment: As close as the left field battle is, this one may be closer. Stubbs holds the edge power and obp by a total of less than 20 points. Both are super fast, and both play really well in the field.

Right Field
Bruce v. Werth
Edge: Bruce
Comment: Werth's offensive numbers are much better, but Bruce's D wins out. It'll be really interesting to see if Bruce continues to rake, or if he struggles against the hurlers Philly throws at him.

Bench
Edge: Cincinnati
Comment: By a big margin, actually. Sadly, benches won't matter much in a short series with days off between.

Starters
Volquez v. Halladay
Edge: Halladay

Arroyo v. Oswalt
Edge: Oswalt

Cueto v. Hamels
Edge: Hamels

Comment: Ouch, and it's not really close at all. Volquez could have a monster game. Halladay is likely to. Oswalt has been Walter Johnson since being dealt. Arroyo doesn't throw as hard as Johnson, and Johnson's 138. And dead. Hamels and Cueto is closest, but Hamels experience and dominance in past playoffs pushes him past the young Red hurler.

Bullpen
Edge: Cincinnati
Comment: The Reds have some monster arms in the pen. Bailey, Masset, Rhodes, Bray, and especially Chapman might mean the difference in a game or two. Chapman in particular could be a HUGE part of the series.

Your opinion?

reds44
10-05-2010, 11:59 PM
I think OC and Rollins is closer than you think. Rollins has been bad this year and is hurt to boot. I'd say that's a wash for the Reds at worst.

Razor Shines
10-06-2010, 12:07 AM
I don't think utley and Phillips are all that close. Utley gets on base at a really nice rate.

Captain Hook
10-06-2010, 12:17 AM
SI, I would assume that you'd give the series edge to Phili despite the 6-5 advantage in the breakdown.I think what you have here is very accurate and agree across the board.

It's too bad Nix and Edmonds have been hurt lately.It was starting to look like they where going to take over for Gomes then the injury bug hit.They still could contribute but it's difficult to say just how much.I did here something about Nix starting the Fri. game.

It's going to be a difficult series for our Reds but I think they can do it.The key imo is for our starters to keep us in every game.If they can, I think out BP can keep Phili in check late and our offense can pull off 3 comeback wins.

dougdirt
10-06-2010, 12:20 AM
The Reds have the better bullpen, but I don't know that its going to matter given the starters that the Phillies have. The bad guys in their bullpen might never pitch an inning, and the back end of their bullpen is looking pretty dominant.

marcshoe
10-06-2010, 12:41 AM
The Reds beat Oswalt unmercifully in game two, in a historic performance that balances the scales of fate once and for all.

Captain Hook
10-06-2010, 12:46 AM
The Reds have the better bullpen, but I don't know that its going to matter given the starters that the Phillies have. The bad guys in their bullpen might never pitch an inning, and the back end of their bullpen is looking pretty dominant.

If the Reds are going to win three they're going to have to get to the Phillies BP by the 7th in at least two of the games.That's going to be difficult against Halladay or Oswalt but I think the Reds can get to one of those guys in 1 of their 4 starts and I believe it will happen against Hamels in game 3.The Reds will need to pull both those games off.

I figure the Reds pitchers are going to have to shut the Phillies offense down completely to get their third win.

Five games in eight days and the dominant Phillies starters will make it difficult for the Reds to take advantage of their BP edge, but we shouldn't assume it won't happen.

Captain Hook
10-06-2010, 12:50 AM
The Reds beat Oswalt unmercifully in game two, in a historic performance that balances the scales of fate once and for all.

Just like this?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/HOU/HOU201007240.shtml

Tornon
10-06-2010, 09:35 AM
I'm assuming Hanigan is going to at least catch Arroyo

bucksfan2
10-06-2010, 09:40 AM
SI

I give the edge to the Reds C.

I give the edge to Victorino out in CF.

I think the edge to Rollins is small if anything. Apparently he is battling an injury right now which to me may swing that to a push.

Scrap Irony
10-06-2010, 09:51 AM
The Reds have the better bullpen, but I don't know that its going to matter given the starters that the Phillies have. The bad guys in their bullpen might never pitch an inning, and the back end of their bullpen is looking pretty dominant.

Never trust Brad Lidge in pressure situations. He's the ultimate coin flip. Half the time he's lights out-- the other half is lights out for his team. The rest of that pen, while good, is still much less effective than the Cincinnati pen.

It'll be really interesting to see how Baker manages his bullpen, and, in particular, his southpaws. I'm guessing Ibanez, Werth, Utley, and Howard will see Bray in their second or third AB, Chapman the one after that, and perhaps Rhodes after that.

(In fact, Werth hit LH worse than righties by a pretty substantial margin this year (937 v. 881). Both marks are great and small sample size issues abound.)

I'm guessing he goes Volquez, Arroyo, and Cueto for two ABs or three runs, then turn to Bray (3-6), Ondrusek (7-2), Chapman (3-6), Masset (7-2), Rhodes (3-6), and Cordero, with Wood and Bailey in reserve for one or two batters. This would give the Reds the best chance at keeping the Philadelphia offense in check and shorten each game to innings 1-5 and 9.

If I'm Philly, I'm keeping Romero in check for Votto, Rolen, Bruce. But he's the only lefty in the pen. Manuel will wait until the seventh inning or later to use him, though, so let's hope Votto and company can bring the lumber early.

PuffyPig
10-06-2010, 09:58 AM
If the sereis goes 5 games, I like our chances.

Pitchers going on 3 days rest in the playoffs historically do poorly, and I don't think Oswalt will be any exception.

The Reds would counter with either Arroyo on 3 days rest (where he actually performs better), or (hopefully) Wood.

PuffyPig
10-06-2010, 10:08 AM
If I'm Philly, I'm keeping Romero in check for Votto, Rolen, Bruce. But he's the only lefty in the pen. Manuel will wait until the seventh inning or later to use him, though, so let's hope Votto and company can bring the lumber early.

That trio hit lefties at .867, righties at .932.

Throw Gomes into the mix (as he may well hit 5th), and the foursome hits lefties at .863, righties at .876.

That match up probably doesn't play that big for Phillies. Romero generally goes 1-2 batters per game, and if he's in with the game on the line, we have to be satisfied.

Stewie
10-06-2010, 10:24 AM
If I'm Philly, I'm keeping Romero in check for Votto, Rolen, Bruce. But he's the only lefty in the pen. Manuel will wait until the seventh inning or later to use him, though, so let's hope Votto and company can bring the lumber early.


They actually have two lefties -- Antonio Bastardo made the NLDS roster over Danys Baez and David Herndon.

Scrap Irony
10-06-2010, 10:24 AM
That trio hit lefties at .867, righties at .932.

Throw Gomes into the mix (as he may well hit 5th), and the foursome hits lefties at .863, righties at .876.

That match up probably doesn't play that big for Phillies. Romero generally goes 1-2 batters per game, and if he's in with the game on the line, we have to be satisfied.

Which is why the Red bullpen is likely to be more effective than the Phils.

Plus Plus
10-06-2010, 10:28 AM
Damaso Marte completely murdered the LHH trio that the Phillies have, as well. Hopefully that can be our good friend Harold Chapman this year.

_Sir_Charles_
10-06-2010, 10:36 AM
A bunch of debbie downers here. Sheesh guys. You'd think the series was over by the way some of you (and the media I might add) are already crowning the Phillies.

I say we win the series 3-1. Lone loss comes against Hamels of all guys. I've just got a feeling we're bringing out the lumber!

HeatherC1212
10-06-2010, 11:01 AM
A bunch of debbie downers here. Sheesh guys. You'd think the series was over by the way some of you (and the media I might add) are already crowning the Phillies.

I say we win the series 3-1. Lone loss comes against Hamels of all guys. I've just got a feeling we're bringing out the lumber!

First off...dude, you gotta change that last part of your signature. I think it's past time now, LOL :laugh:

I agree with you though. No matter what happens in this series, I think the Reds are going to be more than ready to play and with the pressure really being on the Phillies as the favorites (our guys have nothing to lose really), I think the Reds will surprise everyone and take the series in four games. No reason to think that other than it being a strong feeling I've had since Clinchmas Day last week. :p:

Johnny Footstool
10-06-2010, 11:18 AM
A bunch of debbie downers here. Sheesh guys. You'd think the series was over by the way some of you (and the media I might add) are already crowning the Phillies.

I say we win the series 3-1. Lone loss comes against Hamels of all guys. I've just got a feeling we're bringing out the lumber!

No one is crowning the Phillies. Realistically, they have more talent than the Reds. We can get starry-eyed when evaluating our own players.

Games aren't decided by talent, though. They are decided by performance. And the Reds are capable of outperforming the Phillies in three out of five games.

sivman17
10-06-2010, 12:57 PM
When you look strictly at records, the Phillies aren't all that much better. They only won 6 more games than the Reds. Just think about all the close games we had with them in the middle of the season. We could just have easily won a couple more and they lost a couple more. What's my point?

My point is that the Phillies lost a lot of games. Everyone outside of Cincinnati is already crowning them, but they are beatable. Halladay had double digit losses. He's not winning every time he starts. I really believe this could be a close, hard-fought series.