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alloverjr
10-09-2010, 12:18 AM
These losses really don't upset me in the least. Frankly, I gave up on the postseason when it was determined that the Reds would play the Phillies. So, since the end of the regular year I've been thinking about what Walt might consider for next year. Here go my thoughts.

SP - Much has been made about the Reds not having a true Ace. I say there are at least one if not 2 already on the staff. All aces start from something and they have some good arms that got invaluable innings.

LF - How about a consistent producer that carries a glove. A real 4 hole hitter.

SS - A solid defensive player with a little o in his game.

2B - Trade Phillips. He's going to get pricey and I think you can get a little less production (and defense) for a lot less money. Count on your corner guys to carry the offensive burden. Possibly use Valaika or Cozart as a replacement.

3B - Find a suitable platoon partner for Rolen. I think Rolen is toast after about 100 games. Many of us groaned when he was out of the lineup, but had he sat more he may have been more of a player for the team down the stretch. I'm not sold on Francisco.

C - Let Ryan catch the majority of the games. Staff really seems to pitch better with him (and hit more batters ;)). All around solid defensive catcher who seems to have picked up a little offensively and always seems to be on base. Let Hernandez go. Not my favorite.

Closer - Get someone toasted at the Winter Meetings and trade them Cordero and his contract. OK won't happen so they're stuck here.

BTW, I would not be suprised and in fact expect either Volquez or Cueto to be traded during the Winter to open a spot for Leake/Chapman.

Thoughts on such a down evening?

BuckeyeRedleg
10-09-2010, 12:23 AM
These losses really don't upset me in the least.

You lost me here.

reds44
10-09-2010, 12:25 AM
I've never seen more people want to trade a 25 year old who threw nearly 200 innings of 3.63 ERA baseball before.

It's honestly mind boggling.

corkedbat
10-09-2010, 01:24 AM
SP - Much has been made about the Reds not having a true Ace. I say there are at least one if not 2 already on the staff. All aces start from something and they have some good arms that got invaluable innings.

Short of Brandon Webb on a perfomance-based first year contract, I don't see the Reds adding a starter. I see them picking up Bronson's option to lead the staff for one more year, but no ouside changes. Highend pitching is at such a premium and while they don't have a stud like Hallady leading the way, I think what we have with another year's experience is what we'll start the season with.


LF - How about a consistent producer that carries a glove. A real 4 hole hitter.

The MUST HAVE IMO. Rolen is great, but you can't count on him as one of you three middle order bats with Votto and Rolen. He might come back fine and play 140+ games with better numbers, but they can't go into the season counting on it. LF is the one corner spot where they can add a solid run-producer. If Walt could shock the Zone and add Carl Crawford, I'd be Giddy (won't hold my breath though). Moving Votto to LF or putting Alonso out there would not be my first or second choice. I'd rather have a real OFer who can play solid D


SS - A solid defensive player with a little o in his game.

I think Cabrerra will be back, but I honestly could live with Cozart/Janish there too, See the answer to 2B below for the rest of my feelings.


2B - Trade Phillips. He's going to get pricey and I think you can get a little less production (and defense) for a lot less money. Count on your corner guys to carry the offensive burden. Possibly use Valaika or Cozart as a replacement.

I won't scream if Phillips is back, but moving him for young a SS or 2B (or both) who can play solid defense and get on base well enough to bat in the one and/or two holes would be better.


3B - Find a suitable platoon partner for Rolen. I think Rolen is toast after about 100 games. Many of us groaned when he was out of the lineup, but had he sat more he may have been more of a player for the team down the stretch. I'm not sold on Francisco.

I think Frazier or Francisco might be able to fill in decently, but not in the four hole yet. More reason for a big bat in LF (although I am queasy about JF in the field defensively for an extended period).


C - Let Ryan catch the majority of the games. Staff really seems to pitch better with him (and hit more batters ;)). All around solid defensive catcher who seems to have picked up a little offensively and always seems to be on base. Let Hernandez go. Not my favorite.

I'm fine with bringing Hernandez back at a decent price. i think the and Hanny have been solid and i think he could be dealt pretty easily at the deadline if Mes shows he's ready. I would agree with making Hanny the main man in the tandem. If they let Ramon walk, then I'd go after someone like Olivo from the Rox, if he hits the market.


Closer - Get someone toasted at the Winter Meetings and trade them Cordero and his contract. OK won't happen so they're stuck here.

Cordero is our Gibraltar - there aren't enough horses on Earth to move him. If WJ somehow manages to, they should just give him the 2011 GM of the year the first day of ST (unless, of course, he has to throw in Joey Votto and jay 8ruce just to give him away). Cordero or not, I would look at bringing in a veteran arm at a reasonable price. Jose Contreras, Chad Durbin, Chan Ho Park and J.J. Putz are possible FA names I'd consider, but probably won't be cheap enough. I'd also re-up Rhodes for one more year.


BTW, I would not be suprised and in fact expect either Volquez or Cueto to be traded during the Winter to open a spot for Leake/Chapman.

I might move one of the two or Bailey for a TOR starter or all-star caliber middle of the order bat, but don't see it happening.

Bench moves:

I would re-up Nix at a reasonable price or (better yet) Edmonds if he decides to come back. i would keep Gomer as THE RH bat off the bench (unless Frazier is ready). I would let Cairo walk, but they will keep him, IMO.

Cedric
10-09-2010, 01:26 AM
I could see Jocketty getting Greinke from K.C in a deal.

I'm not counting on it though. I would hope he would do whatever it takes to pull that off though.

corkedbat
10-09-2010, 01:27 AM
I could see Jocketty getting Greinke from K.C in a deal.

I'm not counting on it though. I would hope he would do whatever it takes to pull that off though.

I'd be all for that

Brutus
10-09-2010, 01:28 AM
I've never seen more people want to trade a 25 year old who threw nearly 200 innings of 3.63 ERA baseball before.

It's honestly mind boggling.

For some, it's a case of buy low / sell high. I'd trade Cueto because the Reds have a bunch of quality starting pitchers and need to use their surplus to address other positions. Remember that Gomes fella you're always complaining about? Trading someone like Cueto is their best chance to find a plus player in left.

Not everyone wants to trade Cueto because they dislike him. Sometimes it's a case of knowing that he could fetch more in a trade than the other players. And since the Reds have the luxury of taking a risk at that position, it might be worth the inquiry.

Cedric
10-09-2010, 01:28 AM
For some, it's a case of buy low / sell high. I'd trade Cueto because the Reds have a bunch of quality starting pitchers and need to use their surplus to address other positions. Remember that Gomes fella you're always complaining about? Trading someone like Cueto is their best chance to find a plus player in left.

Not everyone wants to trade Cueto because they dislike him. Sometimes it's a case of knowing that he could fetch more in a trade than the other players. And since the Reds have the luxury of taking a risk at that position, it might be worth the inquiry.

Agreed completely. I like Cueto plenty. I just think he would have enough value to get a good deal and I wouldn't want to pay him a ton of money.

reds44
10-09-2010, 01:29 AM
For some, it's a case of buy low / sell high. I'd trade Cueto because the Reds have a bunch of quality starting pitchers and need to use their surplus to address other positions. Remember that Gomes fella you're always complaining about? Trading someone like Cueto is their best chance to find a plus player in left.

Not everyone wants to trade Cueto because they dislike him. Sometimes it's a case of knowing that he could fetch more in a trade than the other players. And since the Reds have the luxury of taking a risk at that position, it might be worth the inquiry.
Fair enough.

Johnny Footstool
10-09-2010, 01:32 AM
I won't scream if Phillips is back, but moving him for young a SS or 2B (or both) who can play solid defense and get on base well enough to bat in the one and/or two holes would be better.

Middle infielders with good defense and OB skills don't grow on trees. Good luck finding a team willing to part with one.

corkedbat
10-09-2010, 01:40 AM
Middle infielders with good defense and OB skills don't grow on trees. Good luck finding a team willing to part with one.

No doubt. Finding a bigbat who plays solid defense in LF/Cleanup won't be easy either, but I'd try. Just saying the only way I move BP is to add at least one solid offensive MI to replace him (i.e. a legit leadoff candidate).

The safest bet is to just say the team will go to ST standing pat, save for a jorneyman arm and bat or two for bench competition/AAA fill, but I have a feeling WJ lands at least one sizeable piece from the outside. I also think it may totally shock us all.

Kc61
10-09-2010, 01:50 AM
Anyone who wants to replace Phillips with Valaika or Cozart isn't improving the ballclub.

Reds are at the stage when they need to add first tier players. They do not need to replace starters with backups.

corkedbat
10-09-2010, 01:54 AM
This team faces a delimma. It needs a stud TOR and a STUD middle of the order bat next season, but probably only have enough resources to add one (if that).

Land the bat to go with Votto, Bruce and Rolen and they probably have enough returning pitching to have a very good shot at winning the NL Central and returning to the postseason.

If they make the postseason though, they probably don't stand a very good chance of going further wit5h out the TOR Stud. Without the big bat, I'm just afraid the middle of the order is on very fragile footing and may not have the offense to make it back to the playoffs.

That's why I would make a LF bat my number one priority and then go hard after the best arm on the market at the deadline if things are going well again.

reds44
10-09-2010, 02:07 AM
I don't really think they need as much of a stud middle of the lineup bat as they do two legit solutions in LF and SS.

Keep in mind Bruce is only 23. There's a good chance he develops into another stud. If they can go out and fill LF with a guy like Werth and then deal for a legit SS you're pretty much set.

corkedbat
10-09-2010, 02:29 AM
I don't really think they need as much of a stud middle of the lineup bat as they do two legit solutions in LF and SS.

Keep in mind Bruce is only 23. There's a good chance he develops into another stud. If they can go out and fill LF with a guy like Werth and then deal for a legit SS you're pretty much set.

Werth is probably good for 25-35 HRs, 85+ RBIs with .850-.900 OPS and very solid LF defense. That falls smack dab in the middle of the Stud LFer range as far as I'm concerned. :) I'd kill for a Werth-Stubbs-Bruce OF next year. He would instantly make us odds on favorites to win the Central again.

I'd think that bigger market teams will have something to say about it though. If he isn't THE best bat on the market he will certainly be in the top 2 or 3.

mth123
10-09-2010, 04:35 AM
1. I don't trade any of the core group of starters (Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Wood, Leake or Chapman) unless its in a package for a TOR stud. Volquez is the one I'd be most likely to deal. No dealing these guys w/o getting pitching in return. Subtract one followed by a sore shoulder here, a flame out there and we're back to the lost decade.

2. If no TOR can be had, Arroyo comes back.

3. Dealing Phillips to turn 2B over to Valaika or somebody else in the organization is a step in the worng direction.

4. Agree completely that the Middle of the Order is in a fragile state. Rolen and Gomes have occupied the 4 and 5 holes and neither has really been a middle of the order presence since the first half. Bruce can fill one spot, the team needs to acquire a LF for the other.

5. Prime trade chips would be built around a package made from some combo of Alonso, Francisco, Maloney, Valaika, Valiquette and Gomes. I'd be willing to add or sub Heisey for the right guy, but I'd rather keep him around if possible. Lesser lights like Frazier, Fisher, Smith, Sulbaran, Wlad, Soto etc shouldn't be showstoppers to sweeten a deal for what the team needs.

6. A Decision of Chapman's future and how to go about making he and Leake viable major league starting pitchers is necessary. Leake basically became a batting tee after 75 IP and Chapman needs another pitch and to build innings if he's moving to the rotation. For the long term, these guys should probably both spend 2011 in AAA to build endurance/innings and refine their arsenal. Something tells me Chapman is in the pen to stay.

7. I'd stick to Cozart and Janish for the SS spot and let Cabrera walk. Team needs a LH Hitting IF who can play 2B, SS and 3B. He can play 3B a couple times a week, give Phillips a blow more frequently and play some SS occasionally against RHP where Cozart has shown some splits in the high minors. Reid Brignac seems like a perfect fit for this role and having a guy like that would strengthen the team significantly IMO.

8. If the Reds decide to send Chapman back through the starter route, they need a lefty for the pen. Not sure I'd push my luck with Rhodes again at his age, but bringing him back or getting a substitute is necessary unless Chapman becomes the substitute.

9. Ramon is the toughest decision IMO. I think the staff is noticelbly better with Hanigan and even Corky back there and a repeat from Ramon offensively isn't likely. If Mesoraco looks like a guy who may be ready at some point in 2011, I'd pass on Ramon, give the majority of time to Hanigan until Mes is ready, fill in with Corky and save the cash for other areas.

Redsfan320
10-09-2010, 10:59 AM
Anybody think Dioner Navarro would be a fit to strengthen up the catching depth. He had a bad year, and didn't leave TB on the best of terms, but he was an all-star in '08.

320

mth123
10-09-2010, 11:28 AM
Anybody think Dioner Navarro would be a fit to strengthen up the catching depth. He had a bad year, and didn't leave TB on the best of terms, but he was an all-star in '08.

320

I suggested him last season. If he'd come on a minor league deal with an invitation to big league camp and a salary of $1 Million or less if he makes the team, he'd be a great gamble. If he wants Ramon type money, I'd pass.

Eric_the_Red
10-09-2010, 01:33 PM
Anybody think Dioner Navarro would be a fit to strengthen up the catching depth. He had a bad year, and didn't leave TB on the best of terms, but he was an all-star in '08.

320

I don't want any player that deserts his team like he did.

Ghosts of 1990
10-09-2010, 02:25 PM
I wouldn't trade Phillips. He's a huge part of the core. He is a great player. Many good years left, I think he'll age well. I would have a huge problem with trading him, creating another hole. If you're telling your fans that you want to win there's no reason to trade Brandon Phillips.

Razor Shines
10-09-2010, 03:23 PM
I wouldn't trade Phillips. He's a huge part of the core. He is a great player. Many good years left, I think he'll age well. I would have a huge problem with trading him, creating another hole. If you're telling your fans that you want to win there's no reason to trade Brandon Phillips.

Great player? He was 2.3 WAR this year, 7th on the team. He's going to cost 11M next year and 12M if we want to keep him in '12. Now, we probably get stuck with a chunk of his salary even if we do trade him, so most likely it would work out better to keep him. But if we could find somebody to take his whole contract, I'd say that 11M could be better spent. Either way I really hope they don't pick up that option for 2012.

Homer Bailey
10-09-2010, 03:30 PM
Great player? He was 2.3 WAR this year, 7th on the team. He's going to cost 11M next year and 12M if we want to keep him in '12. Now, we probably get stuck with a chunk of his salary even if we do trade him, so most likely it would work out better to keep him. But if we could find somebody to take his whole contract, I'd say that 11M could be better spent. Either way I really hope they don't pick up that option for 2012.

Phillips has a 4.0 WAR this year.

Superdude
10-09-2010, 03:40 PM
Totally agree about Rolen. If he's gonna be worth anything by the end of this contract, a strong back up is going to be needed. I don't know if Frazier or Francisco is that guy, but Rolen's bat speed disappeared in the second half. Dude just looks in pain after running out a simple groundball.

Razor Shines
10-09-2010, 03:42 PM
Phillips has a 4.0 WAR this year.

Yeah, I went to Baseball Reference (2.3) first, then after I posted I went to Fangraphs (where he is a 4) and then I went to Baseball Prospectus where he is 3.2.

I knew that Fangraphs would be a little different but I didn't know there would be that big of a difference. I don't know which one is more accurate though.

Ahh. Fangraphs uses UZR and Smith uses Total Zone, that's why there are big differences in their position players.

edabbs44
10-09-2010, 05:11 PM
Yeah, I went to Baseball Reference (2.3) first, then after I posted I went to Fangraphs (where he is a 4) and then I went to Baseball Prospectus where he is 3.2.

I knew that Fangraphs would be a little different but I didn't know there would be that big of a difference. I don't know which one is more accurate though.

Ahh. Fangraphs uses UZR and Smith uses Total Zone, that's why there are big differences in their position players.

That's a huge, huge spread there.

RedsManRick
10-09-2010, 05:30 PM
I'm on the trade Phillips bandwagon, but I wonder if Jocketty has any history of trading away players who would otherwise comprise the "core" of the team. I'm not sure that's a move in his playbook.

LoganBuck
10-09-2010, 05:39 PM
I would rather have a true leadoff hitter, than another "big bat". A high OBP guy who can get on base, and probably play LF or SS would be ideal. Given that Janish and Cozart are already in the organization, the guy probably has to play LF.

johngalt
10-09-2010, 05:47 PM
I don't want any player that deserts his team like he did.

What was the story there?

Eric_the_Red
10-09-2010, 05:57 PM
What was the story there?

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/10/07/dioner-navarro-bails-on-rays-sealing-his-exit-from-tampa-bay/

johngalt
10-09-2010, 06:03 PM
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/10/07/dioner-navarro-bails-on-rays-sealing-his-exit-from-tampa-bay/

Yeah, count me out of the Navarro sweepstakes as well.

Oxilon
10-09-2010, 06:16 PM
I don't understand the trade Brandon Phillips idea. Gold Glove 2B who has a .750 career OPS aren't exactly a dime a dozen. If we're trying to contend, he's a piece you keep. If we're trying to trade for a LF or a #1, you give up your prospects, not your a veteran 2B.

Razor Shines
10-09-2010, 06:59 PM
I don't understand the trade Brandon Phillips idea. Gold Glove 2B who has a .750 career OPS aren't exactly a dime a dozen. If we're trying to contend, he's a piece you keep. If we're trying to trade for a LF or a #1, you give up your prospects, not your a veteran 2B.

I'd probably be more willing to want to keep him if more of that .750 was OBP. 11M is a lot for what he provides and if we had a payroll like the Yankees, Red Sox or Phillies of course we could keep him and improve the team. If it were possible to rid ourselves of much of his salary I'd like to see us make a run at Werth. I could see him getting something like a Jason Bay deal.

I think if all they do is -Phillips and +Werth the Reds are a much better team in '11.

But like I said before, I don't see being able to get out of Phillips 2011 money, so probably best to keep him and let him walk in 2012.

Brutus
10-09-2010, 07:08 PM
I don't understand the trade Brandon Phillips idea. Gold Glove 2B who has a .750 career OPS aren't exactly a dime a dozen. If we're trying to contend, he's a piece you keep. If we're trying to trade for a LF or a #1, you give up your prospects, not your a veteran 2B.

My take is that it's a hedge on what he might do going forward. Right now, he makes the Reds a better ball club. But looking at his salary for next season in addition to the possibility that in a season or two his production might begin a decline, I'm not opposed to trading him if it means both getting good talent in return and under the condition that Cincinnati can find a good replacement. I would definitely not trade Phillips just to put Valaika at second.

Phillips' value is probably at its' peak right now. It's arguable that it was at its' peak last year prior to the incremental raises, but his value because of both age and salary will only decrease going forward. A club is going to have to balance putting forth the best team they can with also figuring out what it's going to do if/when the production drops.

If Cincinnati can find a way to net a young second baseman (a Sean Rodriguez type), I say trade Phillips if you can get good talent in return. If that's unable to be done, I'm not eager to move him, but do recognize he could be largely untradeable in a few years.

The Operator
10-10-2010, 12:09 AM
I think we definitely need a guy who can play upwards of 60 games if necessary filling in for Rolen next year. I love Rolen and everything he's done for this team, but he just looks worn out. And that's no knock on him, he's got injury issues.

I wonder if Ty Wigginton would be available and if he can still play a servicable third base? He'd be one guy I would look into, and he could also spell Votto from time to time.


If I'm Walt, I'd try and shock the world by trading for both Greinke and Soria from Kansas City. I don't know how on Earth he'd get it done, but we do have pieces on the farm as well as some surplus at the major league level to pull from. It's probably a pipe dream, but I'd be giddy.

I'd also love to have Jasyon Werth in left field. He could move in the cleanup spot since we don't want to count on Rolen hitting there again next year, and a 3-4-5 of Votto - Werth - Bruce could be lethal.

Imagine this:

Stubbs
Rolen
Votto
Werth
Bruce
Phillips
Hanigan/Ramon
Janish/OC


I could see Werth costing some coin, but we'll also have increased revenue from this year and I think Walt can get Bob to spend money more than a guy like Krivsky could. Bob trusts Walt big time. It probably won't happen, as he'll have quite a few suitors and I'm sure The Phillies will try to keep him - BUT, this Reds team also signed Arolids Chapman and shocked the world by doing so. I don't expect them to sign Werth but it also would not catch me by complete surprise either.

And if they could acquire Soria, I think Walt could possibly shed Cordero's salary by simply giving him away. Walt has shown he can trade guys we thought untradeable, so you never know.

I know I'm dreaming, but that's what threads like these are for. :cool:

Johnny Footstool
10-10-2010, 12:16 AM
If I'm Walt, I'd try and shock the world by trading for both Greinke and Soria from Kansas City. I don't know how on Earth he'd get it done...

Easy...Cueto, Bruce, Stubbs, and Alonso. Anything less, and the Royals will hang up laughing.


I know I'm dreaming, but that's what threads like these are for. :cool:

Well, there is dreaming, and then there's *dreaming*...

The Operator
10-10-2010, 12:29 AM
Easy...Cueto, Bruce, Stubbs, and Alonso. Anything less, and the Royals will hang up laughing.I'd be willing to part with Cueto and Alonso in that deal. Bruce and Stubbs, well, not so much. There are other pieces in the org. I think could get it done.

One thing to remember, is this is The Royals. They gave away Johnny Damon, they gave away Jermaine Dye, etc. Different management of course, but once a player starts getting expensive in KC, they're gone.

We already heard rumors this season about Greinke and Soria both being on the block due to salary increases. And Greinke was even quoted this season as not being sure if he wanted to hang around for this current rebuilding phase they're in, so they may be motivated to move him.

Again, I doubt it would ever happen, but I did preface it with the fact that I was dreaming. ;) Honestly, I'd be tickled pink if we acquired one or the other, as either one would be a huge boost to the team.



Well, there is dreaming, and then there's *dreaming*...And there are also nightmares, such as Eric Milton. :p:

corkedbat
10-10-2010, 02:39 AM
I don't understand the trade Brandon Phillips idea. Gold Glove 2B who has a .750 career OPS aren't exactly a dime a dozen. If we're trying to contend, he's a piece you keep. If we're trying to trade for a LF or a #1, you give up your prospects, not your a veteran 2B.


I would trade BP and his $11M+ for a cheaper younger guy with steady, but less spectacular defense. I would trade 12 to 15 of Brandon's HRs and his free swinging for another .04-.05 OBP points (with some doubles power) and a more selective approach at the plate. Not sure there are many young MI's out there that fit that profile and probably fewer teams that have them that are.willing to deal them, but that's what i would want.

If Phillips is dealt this offseason though, an offensive-capable MI from outside the orhanization would have to be headed our way - either in the same deal or in seperate transactions. This team needs at least one of it's MIs to be capable of hitting in the 1st or 2nd hole, IMO.

corkedbat
10-10-2010, 03:09 AM
One place I might look for a middle infielder would be the DBacks. If there was a deal made for Phillips, Kelly Johnson is someone I'd target as a replacement. Stephen Drew is another. Both Drew and Johnson hit LH'd, which would be a plus.

The DBacks are probably not in a big hurry to part with either, but they need a lot of help and Towers is looking to make his mark on the team. A prospect package might land one of them (or maybe both). :D


SS Stephen Drew (L)
CF Drew Stubbs (R)
1B Joey Votto (L)
LF Jayson Werth (R)
RF Jay Bruce (L)
3B Scott Rolen (R)
2B Kelly Johnson (L)
CA Ryan Hanigan (R)

Actually, while its a pipe dream, it doesn't look too shabby.

Bench:

IF\ Paul Janish (R)/Chris Valaika (R)/Miguel Cairo (R)/??????
IF/
UT\ Laynce Nix (L)/Chris Heisey (R)/Jim Edmonds (L)/Todd Frazier (R)/Juan
OF/ Francisco (L)/Dave Sappelt (R)/Yonder Alonso (L)
CA Ramon Hernandez (R)/Devin Mesaraco (R)/?????

Rotation:

Bronson Arroyo (R)
Johnny Cueto (R)
Travis Wood (L)
Homer Bailey (R)
Edinson Volquez (R)

Bullpen:

LR: Matt Maloney (L)/Sam LeCure (R)
MR (L): Bill Bray/Daniel Ray Herrera/Puillipe Valiquette/Donnie Joseph
MR (R): Logan Ondrusek/Jordan Smith/Carlos Fisher
7th: Jose Arredando (R)/Jared Burton (R)/ Chan Ho Park (R)*
8th (L): Arthur Rhodes
8th (R): Nick Massett
CL: Aroldis Chapman (L)

Free Agents Signed:

Jayson Werth
Chan Ho Park (or)*Chad Durbin (or)*Jose Contreras
Possibly a reserve catcher and/or MI

Trades:

Deal 1

Reds get: Kelly Johnson, Stephen Drew, Prospect(s)
Dbacks get: Zach Cozart. Mike Leake, Carlos Fisher (or) Jordan Smith (or) Phillipe Valiquette and prospect(s) from the 3rd team
3rd Team Gets: Brandon Phillips (plus some cash from Reds & DBacks)

Deal 2

Reds receive: A prospect or two
Unknown team receives: Francisco Cordero (and all of the negatives Walt has on their GM)*

* Well? I said I was pipe-dreaming!

mth123
10-10-2010, 07:52 AM
One place I might look for a middle infielder would be the DBacks. If there was a deal made for Phillips, Kelly Johnson is someone I'd target as a replacement. Stephen Drew is another. Both Drew and Johnson hit LH'd, which would be a plus.

The DBacks are probably not in a big hurry to part with either, but they need a lot of help and Towers is looking to make his mark on the team. A prospect package might land one of them (or maybe both). :D


SS Stephen Drew (L)
CF Drew Stubbs (R)
1B Joey Votto (L)
LF Jayson Werth (R)
RF Jay Bruce (L)
3B Scott Rolen (R)
2B Kelly Johnson (L)
CA Ryan Hanigan (R)

Actually, while its a pipe dream, it doesn't look too shabby.

Bench:

IF\ Paul Janish (R)/Chris Valaika (R)/Miguel Cairo (R)/??????
IF/
UT\ Laynce Nix (L)/Chris Heisey (R)/Jim Edmonds (L)/Todd Frazier (R)/Juan
OF/ Francisco (L)/Dave Sappelt (R)/Yonder Alonso (L)
CA Ramon Hernandez (R)/Devin Mesaraco (R)/?????

Rotation:

Bronson Arroyo (R)
Johnny Cueto (R)
Travis Wood (L)
Homer Bailey (R)
Edinson Volquez (R)

Bullpen:

LR: Matt Maloney (L)/Sam LeCure (R)
MR (L): Bill Bray/Daniel Ray Herrera/Puillipe Valiquette/Donnie Joseph
MR (R): Logan Ondrusek/Jordan Smith/Carlos Fisher
7th: Jose Arredando (R)/Jared Burton (R)/ Chan Ho Park (R)*
8th (L): Arthur Rhodes
8th (R): Nick Massett
CL: Aroldis Chapman (L)

Free Agents Signed:

Jayson Werth
Chan Ho Park (or)*Chad Durbin (or)*Jose Contreras
Possibly a reserve catcher and/or MI

Trades:

Deal 1

Reds get: Kelly Johnson, Stephen Drew, Prospect(s)
Dbacks get: Zach Cozart. Mike Leake, Carlos Fisher (or) Jordan Smith (or) Phillipe Valiquette and prospect(s) from the 3rd team
3rd Team Gets: Brandon Phillips (plus some cash from Reds & DBacks)

Deal 2

Reds receive: A prospect or two
Unknown team receives: Francisco Cordero (and all of the negatives Walt has on their GM)*

* Well? I said I was pipe-dreaming!

Not bad. I like Drew as a SS alternative and I like Johnson a lot, but IMO he's horrid as a 2B. He'd be a good guy to split time with Heisey in LF though and he could get an occassional start at 2B and maybe 3B, but I wouldn't want his defense out there in the MI for 150 games. Keep Phillips and get Drew and Johnson and face that Worth is too expensive.

Since we're dreaming lets deal kids:

Alonso, Maloney, Valaika, Cozart, Burton, Valiquette


Drew SS
Rolen 3B
Votto 1B
Bruce LF
Johnson/Heisey LF
Stubbs CF
Phillips 2B
Hanigan/Hernandez C

Janish
Nix
Cairo or other Journeyman

Volquez
Wood
Cueto
Arroyo
Bailey

Lecure
Bray
Ondrusek
Masset
Chapman
Rhodes
Cordero

Razor Shines
10-11-2010, 12:19 AM
I have no idea if it would have made any difference, but Rolen and Cabrera really shouldn't have played this series. It seemed pretty evident that they were hurt and they both cost the team runs. Again it may not have mattered one bit in terms of who won the series, but they didn't help. I'll be extremely disappointed if OC's 4M option is picked up and I don't see Rolen as anything more than a pinch hitter next year, I hope he's not too proud to realize that.

alloverjr
10-11-2010, 12:32 AM
I have no idea if it would have made any difference, but Rolen and Cabrera really shouldn't have played this series. It seemed pretty evident that they were hurt and they both cost the team runs. Again it may not have mattered one bit in terms of who won the series, but they didn't help. I'll be extremely disappointed if OC's 4M option is picked up and I don't see Rolen as anything more than a pinch hitter next year, I hope he's not too proud to realize that.

The only way Rolen doesn't start the majority of the games at 3B next year is if he retires due to injury. Now, depending on 2011 goes, his role for 2012 could be a whole different story.

Razor Shines
10-11-2010, 12:36 AM
The only way Rolen doesn't start the majority of the games at 3B next year is if he retires due to injury. Now, depending on 2011 goes, his role for 2012 could be a whole different story.

Probably right. When healthy Rolen can still be very valuable, we saw that to start this season, but clearly his body can't take more than 90-100 games without breaking down. I don't mean it as a knock on him, well except maybe he shouldn't have let himself play injured, but it's just the way it is.

corkedbat
10-11-2010, 12:53 AM
I have no idea if it would have made any difference, but Rolen and Cabrera really shouldn't have played this series. It seemed pretty evident that they were hurt and they both cost the team runs. Again it may not have mattered one bit in terms of who won the series, but they didn't help. I'll be extremely disappointed if OC's 4M option is picked up and I don't see Rolen as anything more than a pinch hitter next year, I hope he's not too proud to realize that.

Unless Rolen has carryover from this season, the offseason rest and workouts should rejuvenate him to a point.

When he's feeling decent and he can catch up to fastballs (like the first half of this season), he's still a very solid starting 3B. You have to find a way to limit the wear on his body and keep him fresh. One would be to give him every 3rd or 4th games off throughout the whole season.

The otherwould be to strategically put him on the DL a couple of times during the season when the wear starts to worsen. I don't think there is a time when his back/body isn't bothering him somewhat, so you would probably have a legit reason for the DL at about any point. Thetwo sticking points would be to get Scott to go along with it and to find a replacement for his spot in the lineup.

The latter is why I'm saying the Reds have to find the biggest bat they can for LF over the offseason. You might put Frazier and/or Francisco at 3B for 40-50 games and they could do a fine jiob. I'm not sure you can count on them to go into the 4th or 5th spot in the lineup and give you the production you need to comptete for the NL Central crown.

Add a solid LF run-producer to Votto and Bruce to comprise the core of the lineup and you can afford to bat Rolen sixth then you cn plug his replacement(s) in with less pressure. If Rolen (or his fill-in for that matter) gives you cleanup-like procution in the sixthspot - hey, ain't nothing wrong with that.

Matt700wlw
10-11-2010, 01:05 AM
Werth is probably good for 25-35 HRs, 85+ RBIs with .850-.900 OPS and very solid LF defense. That falls smack dab in the middle of the Stud LFer range as far as I'm concerned. :) I'd kill for a Werth-Stubbs-Bruce OF next year. He would instantly make us odds on favorites to win the Central again.

I'd think that bigger market teams will have something to say about it though. If he isn't THE best bat on the market he will certainly be in the top 2 or 3.

Werth would be an outstanding addition. Huge!

The Operator
10-11-2010, 01:15 AM
I like having Rolen around for his defense, because despite his play in the postseason, I still think he'll play a great 3B next year, when healthy. But we must have an insurance plan for when he needs breaks, possibly extended breaks. And I'm really not that high on Francisco. I know he's thought of highly by some, but he hasn't shown me much at all.

And with that all said, we need a bat that we can slide in the 4 hole because it's fairly obvious we cannot count on Rolen to bat cleanup for another full year. He really shouldn't have still been hitting cleanup the last 2 months, but, ya know.

I'd love Werth but are there also any intriguing guys out there in trade land that we could acquire to put in LF and hit cleanup? Easier said than done, I know.

oregonred
10-11-2010, 01:59 AM
Let's just go sign Carl Crawford and Cliff Lee in the offseason and book our NLCS and WS tickets for 2011. Oh wait, we aren't a mega-market team that can just simply buy the last 2-3 missing pieces to make it beyond the Division Series so it's going to take a lot of creative front office work to take the next step.

Plan B: Hope one of Volquez (post TJ) or Chapman or Bailey or Cueto or even Wood can somehow develop into an ace by the end of 2011

REDblooded
10-11-2010, 02:04 AM
One of the main things will be to convince Dusty that he really doesn't need to split Bruce and Votto up in the batting order...

corkedbat
10-11-2010, 02:05 AM
I like having Rolen around for his defense, because despite his play in the postseason, I still think he'll play a great 3B next year, when healthy. But we must have an insurance plan for when he needs breaks, possibly extended breaks. And I'm really not that high on Francisco. I know he's thought of highly by some, but he hasn't shown me much at all.

And with that all said, we need a bat that we can slide in the 4 hole because it's fairly obvious we cannot count on Rolen to bat cleanup for another full year. He really shouldn't have still been hitting cleanup the last 2 months, but, ya know.

I'd love Werth but are there also any intriguing guys out there in trade land that we could acquire to put in LF and hit cleanup? Easier said than done, I know.

The best thing about landing Werth or Crawford as a Free Agent (other than the fact that they are perfect fits with almost certain production) is there would be no cost in talent, freeing up trading chips to be used elsewhere.

The downside is the competition for their services and the price it would take to land them. Joey Votto is watching and you'll be setting the bar for him(and Jay Bruce).

While you have to give up talent in trading for a guy, at least you'll have a fixed cost. I kind of like the idea of Grady Sizemore if you get encouraging medical reports on him. Cleveland is still rebuilding and they may be willing to deal him for prospects. Coming off an injury reduces the talent price they can expect for him somewhat.

I'd also love to interest the Yankees in a young pitcher as the core of a deal for Swisher. One of Volquez, Bailey and Leake plus Francisco or Alonso and a reliever (Smith or Fisher) for Swisher and a solid prospect? Or maybe something a little less steep to the Rangers for Nelson Cruz.

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 08:11 AM
One of the main things will be to convince Dusty that he really doesn't need to split Bruce and Votto up in the batting order...

Not sure that this would rise to a level of material concern.

bucksfan2
10-11-2010, 11:13 AM
The best thing about landing Werth or Crawford as a Free Agent (other than the fact that they are perfect fits with almost certain production) is there would be no cost in talent, freeing up trading chips to be used elsewhere.

The downside is the competition for their services and the price it would take to land them. Joey Votto is watching and you'll be setting the bar for him(and Jay Bruce).

While you have to give up talent in trading for a guy, at least you'll have a fixed cost. I kind of like the idea of Grady Sizemore if you get encouraging medical reports on him. Cleveland is still rebuilding and they may be willing to deal him for prospects. Coming off an injury reduces the talent price they can expect for him somewhat.

I'd also love to interest the Yankees in a young pitcher as the core of a deal for Swisher. One of Volquez, Bailey and Leake plus Francisco or Alonso and a reliever (Smith or Fisher) for Swisher and a solid prospect? Or maybe something a little less steep to the Rangers for Nelson Cruz.

No way I trade that much for Swisher and his bulky knee. Good player and could help this team up but I am not giving up a starting pitcher for him.

I think Crawford would be the best target. He could hit early in the order, plays good defense, and is aggressive on the base paths. He fits right into the Reds style of play but his price tag will make him unattainable. No way do I hand out 20M+ over 5 years for Crawford.

Wearth would be a nice consolation price. Good player but at the same time is getting a little older. He also would cost the Reds a first round pick, which I don't know if it is a smart idea at this stage in the Reds process.

As for the BP trade idea I am all ears for it. Actually I was looking at trading him early this season and I proved to be dead wrong. Now may just be the time to revisit that trade idea. He will probably be worth his contract next season but I think we have seen BP's peak this season. Does it make more sense (both team wise and financially wise) to trade BP and replace him with Valakia/Frazier? Will the production drop off be great? Will the $ savings be put to better use?

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 11:14 AM
I'd also love to interest the Yankees in a young pitcher as the core of a deal for Swisher. One of Volquez, Bailey and Leake plus Francisco or Alonso and a reliever (Smith or Fisher) for Swisher and a solid prospect? Or maybe something a little less steep to the Rangers for Nelson Cruz.

Wouldn't Cruz cost more than Swisher?

TheNext44
10-11-2010, 11:52 AM
One thing to consider...

Making the playoffs should result in at least an additional $10M in revenue, between 2010 attendance increase, playoff revenue, 2011 season ticket sales, and merchandise sales.

That should give the Reds at least $13-15M in payflex for next season, even with picking up Arroyo's option.

Considering that there really is no need to trade Pnillips, unless you think he is going to regress greatly. He has been worth well over $11M a season, each of his seasons as a Red, so he should provide excess worth, even at $11M next season.

If Jocketty does what he did last year, I could see him be creative and create at least another $3-5M in payflex with arbitration deals, the Arroyo extension, and possible a Rolenesque extension for Pnillips. And if Jocketty could work out a deal to get rid of Taveras and save 1/3 of his salary, he might just be able to trade Cordero and save some of his salary.

So I wouldn't be surprised to see the Reds have at least $15M and as much as $20M to work with in the offseason.

Homer Bailey
10-11-2010, 11:58 AM
One thing to consider...

Making the playoffs should result in at least an additional $10M in revenue, between 2010 attendance increase, playoff revenue, 2011 season ticket sales, and merchandise sales.

That should give the Reds at least $13-15M in payflex for next season, even with picking up Arroyo's option.

Considering that there really is no need to trade Pnillips, unless you think he is going to regress greatly. He has been worth well over $11M a season, each of his seasons as a Red, so he should provide excess worth, even at $11M next season.

If Jocketty does what he did last year, I could see him be creative and create at least another $3-5M in payflex with arbitration deals, the Arroyo extension, and possible a Rolenesque extension for Pnillips. And if Jocketty could work out a deal to get rid of Taveras and save 1/3 of his salary, he might just be able to trade Cordero and save some of his salary.

So I wouldn't be surprised to see the Reds have at least $15M and as much as $20M to work with in the offseason.

I think it's a bit optimistic to estimate that the extra revenue is going to go directly into the payroll. Just my opinion, but I don't see the Reds payroll increasing by more than $4M-$6M.

TheNext44
10-11-2010, 11:58 AM
Werth is over 30 and asking for a huge long term deal. He might be worth it in his first year or two, but he will be Griffey/Corderoesque through most of it.

I'd much rather spend the money on Crawford, if the Reds are going to overspend.

TheNext44
10-11-2010, 12:10 PM
I think it's a bit optimistic to estimate that the extra revenue is going to go directly into the payroll. Just my opinion, but I don't see the Reds payroll increasing by more than $4M-$6M.

The had a 250,0000 bump in attendance in 2010. That translates into at least $5M. Just the first round of playoffs should net the Reds at least $3M. So that's $8M just from this year. If they sell just an additional 2,000 season tickets for next season, that's over $5M. Add in merchandise and single game ticket sales, and it could be as much as $20M, extra revenue. That's why I only said $10M additional revenue, since some of it will go to paying off debt and profit.

And do you really think Cast is going to be cheap about next season after what he saw this season?

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 12:17 PM
The had a 250,0000 bump in attendance in 2010. That translates into at least $5M. Just the first round of playoffs should net the Reds at least $3M. So that's $8M just from this year. If they sell just an additional 2,000 season tickets for next season, that's over $5M. Add in merchandise and single game ticket sales, and it could be as much as $20M, extra revenue. That's why I only said $10M additional revenue, since some of it will go to paying off debt and profit.

And do you really think Cast is going to be cheap about next season after what he saw this season?

I think Cast is going to do whatever he reasonably can, whether that is $5MM or $50MM.

Homer Bailey
10-11-2010, 12:18 PM
The had a 250,0000 bump in attendance in 2010. That translates into at least $5M. Just the first round of playoffs should net the Reds at least $3M. So that's $8M just from this year. If they sell just an additional 2,000 season tickets for next season, that's over $5M. Add in merchandise and single game ticket sales, and it could be as much as $20M, extra revenue. That's why I only said $10M additional revenue, since some of it will go to paying off debt and profit.

And do you really think Cast is going to be cheap about next season after what he saw this season?

I don't think he's necessarily going to be cheap, but I just don't see him dumping all the money he just made right back into the team. Not the most reliable source, but Fay mentioned he thought they payroll was only going to increase by about $4M at the most next year. He obviously doesn't know much more than us (if at all), but he's a bit closer to the situation, and doesn't expect to see that big of a payroll bump.

I don't disagree with your math, I've just not seen or heard enough from the guys that matter that makes me think we'll see an increase in payroll like some may expect.

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 12:36 PM
I don't think he's necessarily going to be cheap, but I just don't see him dumping all the money he just made right back into the team. Not the most reliable source, but Fay mentioned he thought they payroll was only going to increase by about $4M at the most next year. He obviously doesn't know much more than us (if at all), but he's a bit closer to the situation, and doesn't expect to see that big of a payroll bump.

I don't disagree with your math, I've just not seen or heard enough from the guys that matter that makes me think we'll see an increase in payroll like some may expect.

Does this guy matter? :)


But the Reds aren't exactly throwing money around yet. Jocketty is working with a substantially lower payroll, between $70 million and $80 million, than he had in St. Louis.

There could be a payroll increase next year, said Jocketty, "depending on offseason sales.

"But it will be a little. We're not going to go crazy."



http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/article_77e584ce-c8a2-569c-bb86-ea3ea7d07439.html

Not that I would believe that word for word since you never know what will happen and who will be available. But at least they are looking at increasing at this juncture. That's a start. It may be limited, but I'm not even sure that this team will really need to open up the wallets dramatically this winter. Ask me in July and I may have another answer.

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 01:55 PM
Fay's thoughts for next year are up. I'll highlight the two that are on everyone's minds this fine October morning.


–Jonny Gomes: The Reds have an option for $1.8 million. That’s so cheap, I think they’ll pick it up. Gomes had a solidly year offensively. Bringing him back gives the Reds time to develop another option, i.e, Chris Heisey or Todd Frazier.


–Orlando Cabrera: There is a mutual option for $4 million. I don’t see the Reds picking that up. Paul Janish is better defensively and has come on offensively.

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/10/11/9080/

TheNext44
10-11-2010, 02:25 PM
I don't think he's necessarily going to be cheap, but I just don't see him dumping all the money he just made right back into the team. Not the most reliable source, but Fay mentioned he thought they payroll was only going to increase by about $4M at the most next year. He obviously doesn't know much more than us (if at all), but he's a bit closer to the situation, and doesn't expect to see that big of a payroll bump.

I don't disagree with your math, I've just not seen or heard enough from the guys that matter that makes me think we'll see an increase in payroll like some may expect.

I think we're pretty close about it.

That $4-6M number is probably based on what they know right now, and will go up dependent on how ticket sales go. I think the maximum is $10M which would bring it to around $86M, which is still pretty low.

I think a good deal of the extra payflex will come from deals made, both in regards to arbitration eligible players and expensive players either getting reworked contracts , or getting traded.

savafan
10-12-2010, 02:38 AM
And do you really think Cast is going to be cheap about next season after what he saw this season?

Here's what I heard:

"Don't be surprised to see a $90-95 million payroll in 2010."

I asked:

"Why not make it $100 million?

To which the reply was:

*grin* "Maybe."

savafan
10-12-2010, 02:40 AM
Fay's thoughts for next year are up. I'll highlight the two that are on everyone's minds this fine October morning.





http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/10/11/9080/

I'm sure it wouldn't be hugely popular here on Redszone, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a guy like Cesar Izturis sharing time with Paul Janish next year at short.

savafan
10-12-2010, 02:43 AM
The thing is, and may have just been the disappointment with being swept, but Cast appears ready to open up the wallet to make a huge push in 2011.

corkedbat
10-12-2010, 03:05 AM
Mike Lincoln? Seriously? Or did Fay just mis-spell Isringhausen?

The Operator
10-12-2010, 03:12 AM
savafan, I truly hope your source is correct.

Now, I'd hope that a payroll increase like that would be spent wisely instead of spent just to spend it. But that kind of a payroll bump could really bring in the last few pieces needed for this team to be a World Series contender.

Think they might make a run at Cliff Lee?

Captain Hook
10-12-2010, 03:25 AM
If the team is willing to spend a few million on a bench player I'd like to see them go after Jhonny Peralta.He has a 7 million option for next year with a 250k buy out.I'm sure he's going to be available and might not get too many offers driving his price down.

He can be the guy filling in at 3rd as well as playing some SS or even 2B.I know some here would probably prefer Cairo on the cheap but I feel there is still some upside with Peralta and he can play SS in a crunch.

Topcat
10-12-2010, 05:49 AM
Vet bench would do wonders I believe. No not old as the hills guys like Cairo though.

corkedbat
10-12-2010, 03:43 PM
If you don't want to go Top Shelf on guys like Werth or Crawford how about throwing some prospects at Baltimore for Luke Scott? I haven't followed him that closely, but I thought he was decent enough in the OF for the 'Stros - may be a butcher out there for all I know.

Pickup Gomes' option and work a semi-platoon in LF, although I beleive Ty Willingham maybe back on the market. Gomes would probably give you as much (more) offense for less, but Willingham would give you another option at third.

EDIT: The O's might be interested in including Francisco as a DH candidate.

11larkin11
10-12-2010, 04:14 PM
What would we have to give up in a trade for DeJesus/Greinke?

We can start with Homer and Alonso and go from there.

backbencher
10-12-2010, 05:43 PM
The had a 250,0000 bump in attendance in 2010. That translates into at least $5M. Just the first round of playoffs should net the Reds at least $3M. So that's $8M just from this year. If they sell just an additional 2,000 season tickets for next season, that's over $5M. Add in merchandise and single game ticket sales, and it could be as much as $20M, extra revenue. That's why I only said $10M additional revenue, since some of it will go to paying off debt and profit.

And do you really think Cast is going to be cheap about next season after what he saw this season?

Lots of missing pieces here.

The "bump in attendance" is found money only if it was not budgeted at the start of the year. I, for one, doubt that the Reds budgeted for flat attendance. The Reds also ran heavy promotions at the end of the season, some of which will affect their revenue on 2011 attendance.

The Reds had one home game in the NLDS. After the player pool payments and other expenses, there is no way that the team cleared $3MM. $1MM, maybe.

Merchandise revenue is shared with other teams.

In addition to "interest payments" and "profit," all revenue comes with at least some additional extra costs -- even tickets sales and parking.

2,000 season tickets is 5% of the stadium. Not y-o-y sales, but the whole stadium. That is a huge increase. Certainly possible, but not something that I would characterize as "just."

I certainly agree that there is no way that Castellini is cheap in the offseason. He spent before it generated results, and having tasted hometown success he is going to want more. But let's keep the Reds payroll expectations in check.

bucksfan2
10-12-2010, 05:52 PM
Lots of missing pieces here.

The "bump in attendance" is found money only if it was not budgeted at the start of the year. I, for one, doubt that the Reds budgeted for flat attendance. The Reds also ran heavy promotions at the end of the season, some of which will affect their revenue on 2011 attendance.

The Reds had one home game in the NLDS. After the player pool payments and other expenses, there is no way that the team cleared $3MM. $1MM, maybe.

Merchandise revenue is shared with other teams.

In addition to "interest payments" and "profit," all revenue comes with at least some additional extra costs -- even tickets sales and parking.

2,000 season tickets is 5% of the stadium. Not y-o-y sales, but the whole stadium. That is a huge increase. Certainly possible, but not something that I would characterize as "just."

I certainly agree that there is no way that Castellini is cheap in the offseason. He spent before it generated results, and having tasted hometown success he is going to want more. But let's keep the Reds payroll expectations in check.

I would imagine they would get a portion of the gate for playoff games played in Philly. Don't now what the break down is however.

A 2000 season ticket jump would be huge. 2000 extra season tickets would jump attendance by 162000. Not to mention that your season ticket holders aren't buying the cheap seats. If you figure an average of $20/seat your looking at a boost of around $3.25M.

IMO this season brought a lot of Reds fans back to the Reds. It brought them back down to GABP and peaked their interest. I don't know what the attendance jump will be next season but it did wonders for Milwaukee and I would imagine it will do similar here.

TheNext44
10-12-2010, 06:26 PM
Lots of missing pieces here.

The "bump in attendance" is found money only if it was not budgeted at the start of the year. I, for one, doubt that the Reds budgeted for flat attendance. The Reds also ran heavy promotions at the end of the season, some of which will affect their revenue on 2011 attendance.

The Reds had one home game in the NLDS. After the player pool payments and other expenses, there is no way that the team cleared $3MM. $1MM, maybe.

Merchandise revenue is shared with other teams.

In addition to "interest payments" and "profit," all revenue comes with at least some additional extra costs -- even tickets sales and parking.

2,000 season tickets is 5% of the stadium. Not y-o-y sales, but the whole stadium. That is a huge increase. Certainly possible, but not something that I would characterize as "just."

I certainly agree that there is no way that Castellini is cheap in the offseason. He spent before it generated results, and having tasted hometown success he is going to want more. But let's keep the Reds payroll expectations in check.

That's why I only said half of the expected increase in revenue will be used toward payroll. I think that is very fair.

As for the playoff games, the teams playing pretty much split all the revenue from that, based on some formula centered around the number of home games. But that includes the split the Reds will get from the "World Series Share," that all playoff participants share, which mostly comes from TV revenue. I think $3M is on the low side for that.

As for season ticket sales, I know 1990 was different because they won it all that year, but the year after that, they sold out the entire first two sections (Blue and Green) in season ticket sales. I think 2,000 is low simply because current season ticket sales are so low. And remember there are a lot of season ticket packages that will increase as well.

That said, I think the actual number is not that relevant. I think that if there is a player that can improve this team, and the Reds can get him, Cast will find a way to pay for it. He has tasted success, and it is hightly addictive.

Topcat
10-12-2010, 06:36 PM
Magglio Ordonez is now available. just sayin.

backbencher
10-12-2010, 07:34 PM
As for the playoff games, the teams playing pretty much split all the revenue from that, based on some formula centered around the number of home games. But that includes the split the Reds will get from the "World Series Share," that all playoff participants share, which mostly comes from TV revenue. I think $3M is on the low side for that.


I don't think that this is at all accurate. The majority of the postseason gate goes to the players. The "World Series Share," as I understand the term, is the players' share, not the teams'. The national TV contract revenues, like merchandise, are divided among all teams.

Benihana
10-12-2010, 07:41 PM
What would we have to give up in a trade for DeJesus/Greinke?

We can start with Homer and Alonso and go from there.

Not sure they have a need for Alonso with Hosmer and Moustakas firmly entrenched on the corners. I think they would need Homer and one other from the group of Cueto/Volquez/Wood/Leake, in addition to a couple of position guys like Heisey/Frazier/Francisco/Mesoraco.

If you were really serious about such a deal, it would probably be something like Bailey, Leake, Heisey, and Mesoraco for Greinke, DeJesus, and Gordon.

Is that a price that people would be happy paying?


Small chance the Royals would prefer Frazier or Francisco to Mesoraco because they have Wil Myers. That would certainly be preferable for the Reds, especially with Gordon to be the backup to Rolen.

Kc61
10-12-2010, 07:42 PM
Not sure they have a need for Alonso with Hosmer and Moustakas firmly entrenched on the corners. I think they would need Homer and one other from the group of Cueto/Volquez/Wood/Leake, in addition to a couple of position guys like Heisey/Frazier/Francisco/Mesoraco.

If you were really serious about such a deal, it would probably be something like Bailey, Leake, Heisey, and Mesoraco for Greinke, DeJesus, and Gordon.

Is that a price that people would be happy paying?


You make that deal.

Brutus
10-12-2010, 07:46 PM
Lots of missing pieces here.

The "bump in attendance" is found money only if it was not budgeted at the start of the year. I, for one, doubt that the Reds budgeted for flat attendance. The Reds also ran heavy promotions at the end of the season, some of which will affect their revenue on 2011 attendance.

The Reds had one home game in the NLDS. After the player pool payments and other expenses, there is no way that the team cleared $3MM. $1MM, maybe.

Merchandise revenue is shared with other teams.

In addition to "interest payments" and "profit," all revenue comes with at least some additional extra costs -- even tickets sales and parking.

2,000 season tickets is 5% of the stadium. Not y-o-y sales, but the whole stadium. That is a huge increase. Certainly possible, but not something that I would characterize as "just."

I certainly agree that there is no way that Castellini is cheap in the offseason. He spent before it generated results, and having tasted hometown success he is going to want more. But let's keep the Reds payroll expectations in check.

It's been reported that the 'average' take-home from 2 games in a postseason series per team is roughly $5 mil in the first round. So for all intents and purposes, expecting $3 million for the Reds from that one playoff game is not at all a stretch.

It's possible they had a bump in attendance budgeted for 2010, but the payroll didn't increase, so it's still possible that the end result was a net gain of profits they didn't account for, or if they did, weren't invested in payroll for this season but rather put back with the possibility of increasing payroll in 2011.

Benihana
10-12-2010, 07:46 PM
You make that deal.

Maybe, but it is a tough pill to swallow. The team definitely falls apart in 2 years with Greinke, Arroyo, Phillips, and Rolen all gone, and not much in the way of cavalry to replace them after a deal like this. Not to mention, Votto one year from FA and Bruce/Cueto/Volquez all making big bucks in arbitration.

In other words, you are the White Sox.

Kc61
10-12-2010, 07:50 PM
Maybe, but it is a tough pill to swallow. The team definitely falls apart in 2 years with Greinke, Arroyo, Phillips, and Rolen all gone, and not much in the way of cavalry to replace them after a deal like this. Not to mention, Votto one year from FA and Bruce/Cueto/Volquez all making big bucks in arbitration.

In other words, you are the White Sox.

I really disagree that the team falls apart. You still have a great young starting core with Volquez, Cueto, Wood and Chapman. Three years from now there may be other major league ready young pitchers.

Mesoraco is replaced by Grandal.

Heisey is a good backup, but there are other good backups around.

For Greinke, Dejesus and Gordon? You make that deal.

It gives the Reds the top of the rotation guy and the left fielder. Two key needs filled instantaneously.

You make that deal.

Brutus
10-12-2010, 07:51 PM
I don't think that this is at all accurate. The majority of the postseason gate goes to the players. The "World Series Share," as I understand the term, is the players' share, not the teams'. The national TV contract revenues, like merchandise, are divided among all teams.

The players' pool is 60% of the gate receipts of the first 4 games of the World Series, first 4 games of each LCS and first 3 games of each LDS.

The home team keeps the rest, but there is a revenue sharing with the visiting team.

backbencher
10-12-2010, 09:07 PM
The players' pool is 60% of the gate receipts of the first 4 games of the World Series, first 4 games of each LCS and first 3 games of each LDS.

The home team keeps the rest, but there is a revenue sharing with the visiting team.

Right. So the financial impact of the playoffs:

There is no boost to TV or merchandising revenue.

There is no "World Series Share" coming to the team.

The majority of the gate for a 3-game LDS goes to the players. If the Reds had won one game, the team would have had a much greater benefitm because the players' share would have been capped. But that didn't happen. The team's share is about 12% of the gate receipts of the series, less expenses.

The financial benefit could/should/will come in 2011 tickets and sponsorships, as well as renegotiation of the FSN deal when it is up.

backbencher
10-12-2010, 09:10 PM
Not sure they have a need for Alonso with Hosmer and Moustakas firmly entrenched on the corners.

This is a big point. KC doesn't need Alonso. Not many teams do. KC doesn't even need Mesoraco.

I suppose that Reds fans are rooting for the Rangers, as the steeper the financial crisis in TB, the more likely they are as a trading partner.

Brutus
10-12-2010, 09:19 PM
Right. So the financial impact of the playoffs:

There is no boost to TV or merchandising revenue.

There is no "World Series Share" coming to the team.

The majority of the gate for a 3-game LDS goes to the players. If the Reds had won one game, the team would have had a much greater benefitm because the players' share would have been capped. But that didn't happen. The team's share is about 12% of the gate receipts of the series, less expenses.

The financial benefit could/should/will come in 2011 tickets and sponsorships, as well as renegotiation of the FSN deal when it is up.

It's probably closer to 15%, but your point still stands.

However, for a 3-game series, 15% does still wind up around the $2-3 million range. That's the exact range of what Next44 was saying. I'm sure they probably made closer to $3 million accounting for the sponsorship money they got from even one playoff game.

You're right that merchandising does not impact revenue, as that's shared at the central fund level. However, clubs do bring in a lot of money from signage and marketing, and an increase in attendance and popularity would most definitely help that.

backbencher
10-12-2010, 09:57 PM
My guess is that the team stands pat.

Picks up options on Arroyo, Rhodes, Hernandez, Gomes.
Declines option on Harang.
Allows Cabrera, Cairo, Nix to test the market -- and then brings all back if the FA rules allow it.
LTD negotiations with Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Volquez. Successful with one of four.

Alonso, Francisco, Cozart to start in AAA. Heisey, Bray, Smith to make team.

Arroyo is important for continuity, particularly since Cueto really is the only other fully proven starter on the staff. With him, I think that the team proposes a reworked deal like Rolen, Arroyo declines, and the team ends up picking up the option. If the team doesn't pick up the option, my personal bet is that Webb would end up in Cincinnati.

Rhodes will either be back or be replaced by an equally spendy LHP. May as well as go with Arthur.

Hernandez has a reasonably-priced option and the team values the continuity and the language skills.

Gomes is a conundrum. His option is cheap enough to be picked up, but he then creates a roster bind for an NL team. He cannot be used as a defensive substitute or a pinch runner, and he's nothing special as a pinch hitter, either. So picking up his option would mean that the team is focusing on improvement elsewhere on the diamond.

I think that the first upgrade for the team is a 1B/3B with more bat than Cairo. It's not an expensive move, but it is one that is important in maintaining a strong offense. Perhaps Francisco replaces Cairo, but I think that Walt would prefer a Conine or Spezio-type. I agree with the sentiment, in that neither Votto nor Rolen are demonstrative clubhouse types, and I would prefer to maintain the cool resolve of this year's clubhouse. Or, to put it another way, it did not go unnoticed that Brandon Phillips, great guy though he is, has been displaced as the team "leader." I'm not sure who is out there in that mold.

I really like Heisey and Nix as the fourth and fifth OFs. Enough defense and pop, plus the correct handedness, all for cheap.

At MI, as others have said, it would be ideal if Valaika and/or Cozart, but especially Cozart, could be traded for a LH version of himself. I don't see any likely targets on the horizon, however.

Since you need seven starters, at least, to manage a season, I don't trade any of the team's perceived surplus. Assuming health in April, I think that Leake and Smith start in the pen, with Arredondo, Lecure and Maloney in AAA -- though I could see Maloney in the pen and Leake in AAA. I also think that it would be unwise to trade a starter because the team has no 2011 (or even 2012) starters on the horizon.

I think that a big FA is unlikely for similar reasons. The team probably would fit a strong free agent into 2010 -- even a Werth or, yes, a Dunn. The problem is that a big name FA will want several years, and the team's 2012 and 2013 budgets will be even more pinched. Yes, Cordero, Harang, Arroyo and Phillips will be gone, but today's youngsters will be well into their arb years. However, if money were no object, Werth really is a good fit for the team.

Cedric
10-13-2010, 02:30 PM
I think the Reds should target Stephen Drew the hardest this off season. They need power arms and probably have enough bats to flip Drew.

That would be my perfect start to the off season if Jocketty could get Drew.

Razor Shines
10-13-2010, 02:44 PM
I'm sure it wouldn't be hugely popular here on Redszone, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a guy like Cesar Izturis sharing time with Paul Janish next year at short.

Where exactly would it be popular? Other Central Division message boards?

That thought makes me ill, bring back OCab!

edabbs44
10-13-2010, 02:52 PM
I think the Reds should target Stephen Drew the hardest this off season. They need power arms and probably have enough bats to flip Drew.

That would be my perfect start to the off season if Jocketty could get Drew.

From mlbtr.com


Probably Off-Limits

We've heard the odd Stephen Drew rumor here and there over the years, but new Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers probably won't trade him this winter. Drew had a strong year, and the D'Backs need him at short.


http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/10/trade-market-for-shortstops.html

Will M
10-14-2010, 08:45 PM
My guess is that the team stands pat.

Picks up options on Arroyo, Rhodes, Hernandez, Gomes.
Declines option on Harang.
Allows Cabrera, Cairo, Nix to test the market -- and then brings all back if the FA rules allow it.
LTD negotiations with Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Volquez. Successful with one of four.

Alonso, Francisco, Cozart to start in AAA. Heisey, Bray, Smith to make team.

Arroyo is important for continuity, particularly since Cueto really is the only other fully proven starter on the staff. With him, I think that the team proposes a reworked deal like Rolen, Arroyo declines, and the team ends up picking up the option. If the team doesn't pick up the option, my personal bet is that Webb would end up in Cincinnati.

Rhodes will either be back or be replaced by an equally spendy LHP. May as well as go with Arthur.

Hernandez has a reasonably-priced option and the team values the continuity and the language skills.

Gomes is a conundrum. His option is cheap enough to be picked up, but he then creates a roster bind for an NL team. He cannot be used as a defensive substitute or a pinch runner, and he's nothing special as a pinch hitter, either. So picking up his option would mean that the team is focusing on improvement elsewhere on the diamond.

I think that the first upgrade for the team is a 1B/3B with more bat than Cairo. It's not an expensive move, but it is one that is important in maintaining a strong offense. Perhaps Francisco replaces Cairo, but I think that Walt would prefer a Conine or Spezio-type. I agree with the sentiment, in that neither Votto nor Rolen are demonstrative clubhouse types, and I would prefer to maintain the cool resolve of this year's clubhouse. Or, to put it another way, it did not go unnoticed that Brandon Phillips, great guy though he is, has been displaced as the team "leader." I'm not sure who is out there in that mold.

I really like Heisey and Nix as the fourth and fifth OFs. Enough defense and pop, plus the correct handedness, all for cheap.

At MI, as others have said, it would be ideal if Valaika and/or Cozart, but especially Cozart, could be traded for a LH version of himself. I don't see any likely targets on the horizon, however.

Since you need seven starters, at least, to manage a season, I don't trade any of the team's perceived surplus. Assuming health in April, I think that Leake and Smith start in the pen, with Arredondo, Lecure and Maloney in AAA -- though I could see Maloney in the pen and Leake in AAA. I also think that it would be unwise to trade a starter because the team has no 2011 (or even 2012) starters on the horizon.

I think that a big FA is unlikely for similar reasons. The team probably would fit a strong free agent into 2010 -- even a Werth or, yes, a Dunn. The problem is that a big name FA will want several years, and the team's 2012 and 2013 budgets will be even more pinched. Yes, Cordero, Harang, Arroyo and Phillips will be gone, but today's youngsters will be well into their arb years. However, if money were no object, Werth really is a good fit for the team.

This could be an approach the team takes but I have several problems here. The team played like you know what the last 6 weeks or so. Then they got spanked in the playoffs. Yet we got performances over the season that may not get repeated (Ramon, Rolen, Cairo, plus others). Yes guys like Bruce or Stubbs should improve but I don't think 'standing pat' will make us real playoff contenders nor are we even 50/50 to make the post season. I'd rather try to peel off a few questionable players (say Cabrera & Gomes) as well as add one real big player this offseason.

Here are my thoughts divided into six categories (SP, RP, catching, IF, OF, bench)


1) SP sign me up for bringing back Bronson. IMO his 200+ innings are a key.
Cueto, Volquez, Wood & Chapman are my four other starters.
Bailey or Leake are dangled for help elsewhere & whichever is kept goes to the pen.
Maloney & Lecure provide extra depth in case of multiple injuries.

2) RP Cordero, Masset, Ondrusek & Bray. Bailey or Leake (see above). That leaves two spots. Id like a 2nd lefty. Bringing Rhodes back on a 1 year deal is fine but Id let him walk if someone offers him a 2 year deal. If we cant get Rhodes back Id look on the free agent market for another left handed reliever. The last spot can be open for competition between guys like Lecure, Fisher, Smith, etc.

3) Catching Tough call here. No doubt Hanigan is major league material but I dont want him wearing down. If we go with a cheap vet (ie Corky) until Mes is ready that could backfire if Mes struggles at AAA. Nevertheless that is what I would do. I think Ramon is unlikely to repeat his 2010 & Id look to spend the cash elsewhere.

4) IF Votto, Phillips, _______, Rolen.
Id overturn every rock on the planet to find a shortstop. Stephen Drew would be my target even though he is not available. The Diamondbacks likely would trade his salary away for a good return. We would have him for 2 years. Id also look into Reyes if the Mets turn down his option. Id even look at Hanley Ramirez. The Marlins might move him simply to save cash. With Ramirez Id hope Dusty & the good clubhouse guys would be a positive influence on him.
Now, if I couldnt get a SS (most likely scenario) who could be an offensive plus & play the position defensively Id face a quandry. I would go defense on the SS position & really have to find a big big bat for LF. What I would try is to go with Janish & Cozart. Id even sign some vet to a minor league deal to compete for the backup SS spot in case Cozart flopped.

5) OF Bruce, Stubbs, _____________.
Here there are two unknowns. First can & would Votto play LF?
Second, who is at SS?
If Votto can play LF and we get a real shortstop then Id use Alonso at 1B.
If Votto wont/cant play LF then Alonso is traded as he has no position.
If we cant swing a deal for a real shortstop then Alonso is traded for a real stud bat for left field.

Lets assume that we cant get Drew, Reyes, Hanley,etc. Then a middle of the order bat for left seems a must. I suspect Werth & Crawford are out of our price range but you never know. If we dont waste cash on a bunch of bench guys we might be able to get a real player. Id look to deal for a youngish guy in/entering his arbitration years. There are a lot of teams that are still going to be very frugal this offseason.

6) Bench a lot here depends on how the above plays out.
As above Id roll the dice with Corky until Mes is ready.
Id decline Gomess option. He just isnt a good player.
Id try to bring Nix back cheap & use him & Heisey (unless he is dealt) as the 4th/5th outfilders.
For the bench infielders Id use Janish (assuming we get a real SS). If we dont & Janish is the starter then Cozart becomes the backup. For the last bench spot we would have to find a guy who can play 3B 40-80 games a year. Frazier had a decent 2nd half in AAA. Could he be that guy? The fact that he can play LF would mean Heisey could go as part of a deal. Valaika apparently has problems throwing from SS/3B but he could be our 2nd baseman in 2012. Does he get a spot on the bench in 2011?

My 2011 team would look something like this

Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, Wood & Chapman.
Cordero, Masset, Ondrusek, Bray, Leake/Bailey, 2nd lefty & whoever wins the last spot.
Hanigan & Corky/Mes.
Votto, Phillips, Rolen, Stubbs & Bruce.
Shortstop is acquired via trade or we go with Janish.
Left fielder is either Votto (with Alonso at 1B) or more likely acquired via trade.
Bench includes Nix, Heisey, backup SS, key backup IF & backup catcher.

Trade bait is Alonso, possibly Valaika, Cozart if we can get a SS back, Heisey & either Leake or Bailey.

Redsfan320
10-17-2010, 09:26 PM
So... when do they usually announce the pitchers & catchers return date... I miss the Reds... so much. :(

320

Brutus
10-18-2010, 01:42 AM
So... when do they usually announce the pitchers & catchers return date... I miss the Reds... so much. :(

320

Not sure of the exact date, but it starts usually 45 days before opening day with the rest of the roster reporting about 33 days prior to opening day.

redsmetz
10-18-2010, 10:30 PM
Not sure of the exact date, but it starts usually 45 days before opening day with the rest of the roster reporting about 33 days prior to opening day.

February 13th according to this

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/schedule/important_dates.jsp

Redsfan320
10-19-2010, 09:09 AM
Thanks all! 117 days.

320

Redsfan320
10-20-2010, 12:26 PM
Oh, by the way watch it again. (http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=12554775) :D. It's just so awesome.

320