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View Full Version : Who is the odd man out for the 2011 rotation?



Benihana
10-11-2010, 10:07 AM
Who do you expect NOT to be in the 2011 rotation?

Arroyo is definitely back. Chapman may or may not get re-converted into a starter. Leake, Wood, Cueto, Volquez, and Bailey are all up in the air.

If it were up to you, who would be out of the mix for a 2011 rotation spot and why? Trade? Bullpen?

Homer Bailey
10-11-2010, 10:08 AM
Odd man out should be Leake, IMO. And I'm guessing Chapman starts in AAA, and comes up with the first sign of trouble/injury.

reds1869
10-11-2010, 10:09 AM
After last night, I am intrigued by Bailey as a reliever. I would love to see him audition for the role of closer. He can be devastating for one inning.

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 10:13 AM
I voted Leake, but wouldn't mind seeing Leake or Volquez dealt for help.

Reds Fanatic
10-11-2010, 10:20 AM
Leake looks like the odd man out at this point. Bailey is another question mark for how he would be used.

You never know what deals may happen in the offseason but at this point my rotation for next year would be

Arroyo, Chapman, Volquez, Wood and Cueto

Homer Bailey
10-11-2010, 10:25 AM
How did Arroyo get a vote? Is Walt just going to pick up his option and move him to the pen?

Kc61
10-11-2010, 10:27 AM
There are seven candidates. Two will be out of the rotation.

As of now, Chapman and Leake are likely in the pen.

Homer Bailey
10-11-2010, 10:31 AM
There are seven candidates. Two will be out of the rotation.

As of now, Chapman and Leake are likely in the pen.

I think they are much more likely to be in AAA.

Redsfan320
10-11-2010, 10:33 AM
I said Chappy and Volqy.

320

OesterPoster
10-11-2010, 10:34 AM
How did Arroyo get a vote? Is Walt just going to pick up his option and move him to the pen?

I'm assuming that someone thinks his option doesn't get picked up, thus he's not in the rotation?

Went with Chapman (AAA to start the year and work on secondary pitches) and Cueto (traded). Tough to pick though. I think one of Cueto/Bailey/Volquez/Leake gets traded.

Homer Bailey
10-11-2010, 10:35 AM
I'm assuming that someone thinks his option doesn't get picked up, thus he's not in the rotation?

Went with Chapman (AAA to start the year and work on secondary pitches) and Cueto (traded). Tough to pick though. I think one of Cueto/Bailey/Volquez/Leake gets traded.

The reason I asked is because Jocketty has already said the option is getting picked up.

Benihana
10-11-2010, 10:44 AM
Went with Chapman (AAA to start the year and work on secondary pitches) and Cueto (traded). Tough to pick though. I think one of Cueto/Bailey/Volquez/Leake gets traded.

I agree with this, although I would think that Cueto would be the least likely of those four to get traded (Bailey is probably the most likely).

I'd like to see one of them get traded for Matt Kemp and some other help. The Dodgers have to be interested in Alonso after what James Loney did this year.

I'm not sure if Chapman will ever be a starter in the major leagues. I envision him taking a Papelbon-like path.

sivman17
10-11-2010, 11:01 AM
As long as Bailey doesn't get traded, he's my darkhorse to have a great season. I feel like Cueto, Bailey, and Volquez will be our "big 3." I think Arroyo will continue to be solid. Not sure who gets the 5th spot.

Benihana
10-11-2010, 11:13 AM
As long as Bailey doesn't get traded, he's my darkhorse to have a great season. I feel like Cueto, Bailey, and Volquez will be our "big 3." I think Arroyo will continue to be solid. Not sure who gets the 5th spot.

Unfortunately, he's been my darkhorse to have a great season for the last 3 years. I think Wood HAS to be in the rotation at this point, given his performance the last two seasons (including in the postseason) and the hand with which he throws.

bucksfan2
10-11-2010, 11:44 AM
Unless Chapman makes a huge step forward he starts off in the pen. Guy has nasty stuff and solidifys the back end of the pen.

I have a feeling either Cueto or Volquez are traded this off season. You could throw Homer into the mix but I don't know. Volquez's dud in the post season sure didn't help his trade value.

I think Leake will be in the rotation but if a move isn't made then he may very well be the odd man out.

dfs
10-11-2010, 11:54 AM
....It seemed like every time I looked up, teams were getting hits off Chapman.
Now, I don't know if that's a perception issue on my part or not. I suspect it is, but I think he'll start the year in the minors again.

I think the other spot (out of the rotation) will go to the guy who gets hurt. If nobody gets hurt, Travis Wood will go to Louisville for a month or two.

Of course, THE TRADE might happen and then all bets are off. Jocketty was never afraid to bring talent in or to let it go. It will be interesting to see what happens with a GM who does not operate from a position of scarcity.

GADawg
10-11-2010, 01:13 PM
As long as Bailey doesn't get traded, he's my darkhorse to have a great season. I feel like Cueto, Bailey, and Volquez will be our "big 3." I think Arroyo will continue to be solid. Not sure who gets the 5th spot.

I'm with you here...after a couple years of expecting it to happen I'm gonna guess Homer has finally arrived.

Despite what we here I still think Chapman is destined for the 8th inning in '11 and the closers role in the years following.

The other candidates including Maloney i think, will most likely be determined by health

Cedric
10-11-2010, 01:19 PM
Unfortunately, he's been my darkhorse to have a great season for the last 3 years. I think Wood HAS to be in the rotation at this point, given his performance the last two seasons (including in the postseason) and the hand with which he throws.

The last 3 years? Homer is just now 24.

The expectations on him are a bit much, IMO.

Ghosts of 1990
10-11-2010, 01:24 PM
Chapman in the pen again; and use Leake and Alonso as bait to get the big bat.

Always Red
10-11-2010, 01:24 PM
I have a feeling either Cueto or Volquez are traded this off season.

I said the same thing last night.

I think one of them will be dealt for need elsewhere. Just a hunch.

The Operator
10-11-2010, 01:28 PM
I'd deal Volquez before Cueto.

I've been critical of Cueto at times but he really showed me something last night. He was very poised and pitched very well in the biggest game of his life, he just didn't get any help from the offense or the defense.

That said, he could be a proverbial "sell high" candidate, but if he is, it better be a heck of a return.

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 01:29 PM
I'd deal Volquez before Cueto.

I've been critical of Cueto at times but he really showed me something last night. He was very poised and pitched very well in the biggest game of his life, he just didn't get any help from the offense or the defense.

That said, he could be a proverbial "sell high" candidate, but if he is, it better be a heck of a return.

Agree, I'd be hoping that someone looked at Volquez's Septemeber and thinks he turned a corner. I have a feeling that Volquez will keep the Tums business humming in Cincy.

Cedric
10-11-2010, 01:31 PM
I'd deal Volquez before Cueto.

I've been critical of Cueto at times but he really showed me something last night. He was very poised and pitched very well in the biggest game of his life, he just didn't get any help from the offense or the defense.

That said, he could be a proverbial "sell high" candidate, but if he is, it better be a heck of a return.

Volquez still has a much higher ceiling. He's barely a year away from surgery and I hope people look a little deeper. His swing/miss rates are amazing and control is the last thing to return after TJ surgery.

Cueto is a fine young pitcher. I would still try and package him for needs elsewhere because he has such good value and will be getting paid a ton soon.

kbrake
10-11-2010, 01:32 PM
I think Chapman and Leake start in AAA and I would hold onto both Cueto and Volquez.

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 01:37 PM
Volquez still has a much higher ceiling. He's barely a year away from surgery and I hope people look a little deeper. His swing/miss rates are amazing and control is the last thing to return after TJ surgery.

But Volquez has never had good control. In his only full year in the majors he had 93 BBs, which would have been tied for 2nd in the majors this year.

Now when you look at the leaders in walks you have some studs (Lester, Ubaldo and Sanchez) while others are not as successful (Burnett, Davies and Kazmir).

Superdude
10-11-2010, 01:41 PM
Arroyo Cueto Volquez Wood Bailey is my rotation

I wanna see Chapman as a starter long term, but he wasn't exactly dominating until he moved to bullpen. Send him to Louisville and see if his control and secondary stuff has improved enough. Sucks for Leake, but Wood has passed him in my mind.

Dealing Cueto for a legitimate shortstop or left fielder is my offseason wish though.

Cedric
10-11-2010, 01:44 PM
But Volquez has never had good control. In his only full year in the majors he had 93 BBs, which would have been tied for 2nd in the majors this year.

Now when you look at the leaders in walks you have some studs (Lester, Ubaldo and Sanchez) while others are not as successful (Burnett, Davies and Kazmir).

It's for sure no guarantee. I just wouldn't want to trade Volquez at his lowest value.

I'm looking for a big package and think Cueto would grab more talent back.

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 01:47 PM
It's for sure no guarantee. I just wouldn't want to trade Volquez at his lowest value.

I'm looking for a big package and think Cueto would grab more talent back.

I'm not sure that Volquez would currently be at his lowest value. September boosted it and at least they could say that it was playoff jitters added to TJ recovery.

If he steps on the field next year and does the same, that's when his value plummets.

RBA
10-11-2010, 01:53 PM
Bailey will be in the rotation to start. But he will have a meltdown and won't be there after May. At that time Chapman will come up from AAA and take the spot.

Cedric
10-11-2010, 01:56 PM
I'm really confused.. Have I missed something? Chapman will never spend another day in AAA. It's just not possible after the buildup and how well he has performed overall.

He makes a ton of money also. He's here for good unless I missed something.

Jpup
10-11-2010, 01:57 PM
I'll never understand folks. How does Cueto go from being the best pitcher on the team to out of the rotation or the one to be traded?

He's the best the Reds have and all I keep hearing is how he'll fail or be traded. Did Sunday not show you guys anything? About the same thing for Mike Leake. How could anyone give up on this guy already?

Homer Bailey
10-11-2010, 01:58 PM
I'm really confused.. Have I missed something? Chapman will never spend another day in AAA. It's just not possible after the buildup and how well he has performed overall.

He makes a ton of money also. He's here for good unless I missed something.

I expect him to start in AAA to get more seasoning as a starter before being put in the Reds rotation, unless he has a very strong spring training.

Cedric
10-11-2010, 01:59 PM
I expect him to start in AAA to get more seasoning as a starter before being put in the Reds rotation, unless he has a very strong spring training.

Makes some sense. I guess that is what I forgot. Might take a bit to stretch him out.

Cedric
10-11-2010, 02:00 PM
I'll never understand folks. How does Cueto go from being the best pitcher on the team to out of the rotation or the one to be traded?

He's the best the Reds have and all I keep hearing is how he'll fail or be traded. Did Sunday not show you guys anything? About the same thing for Mike Leake. How could anyone give up on this guy already?

You don't trade scrubs and bring in talent you need elsewhere. I don't think people want Cueto traded for Nyjer Morgan or anything.

You get value in what you give. Not one person has said he will be dropped from the rotation unless there is a trade.

camisadelgolf
10-11-2010, 02:02 PM
Benihana, I just want to let you know that I appreciate you putting the options in alphabetical order.

VR
10-11-2010, 02:04 PM
I'll never understand folks. How does Cueto go from being the best pitcher on the team to out of the rotation or the one to be traded?

He's the best the Reds have and all I keep hearing is how he'll fail or be traded. Did Sunday not show you guys anything? About the same thing for Mike Leake. How could anyone give up on this guy already?



Jocketty has shown the willingness to trade valuable pieces to improve the club.

It is a virtual impossiblity that the Reds will carry all 7 of these pitchers next year. It takes someone with cajones to make those kinds of trades to improve the club....and WJ has them.

The Reds did a LOT to improve their visibility nationally, and be an attractive destination for top talent. I think WJ capitalizes on that....and lands a big name.

Let's just hope it's Greg Vaughn, not Dante Bichette.

Jpup
10-11-2010, 02:05 PM
You don't trade scrubs and bring in talent you need elsewhere. I don't think people want Cueto traded for Nyjer Morgan or anything.

You get value in what you give. Not one person has said he will be dropped from the rotation unless there is a trade.

Yep, but Cueto is the guy the Reds need to lock up. I love how folks always want to trade the best players for other people's suspects. Absolutely no reason to trade Cueto for anything really.

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 02:10 PM
Yep, but Cueto is the guy the Reds need to lock up. I love how folks always want to trade the best players for other people's suspects. Absolutely no reason to trade Cueto for anything really.

Agree, Cueto should not be the one traded.

Always Red
10-11-2010, 02:34 PM
Yep, but Cueto is the guy the Reds need to lock up. I love how folks always want to trade the best players for other people's suspects. Absolutely no reason to trade Cueto for anything really.

As for me, I don't WANT to trade Cueto, but he has talent, and you have to give good in order to get good back. I think he might be traded for LF/SS/3B help (take your pick). After all, the Reds do have pitching surplus, as surprised as I am to say that.

It's nothing personal against Cueto, and I like him as a pitcher. I'm sure the rest of the league does, too. He has way more value than Bailey, Leake and Wood at this point, which makes him (along with Volquez) a candidate who might be traded.

He and Edison also start getting more expensive next year (arb eligible).

chicoruiz
10-11-2010, 02:41 PM
I look at how the Phillie pitchers just carved up the Reds by commanding their stuff within the strike zone and I think; the only Reds pitcher who comes close to that level is a rested Mike Leake. The first half of the season happened too, guys...

Caveat Emperor
10-11-2010, 02:47 PM
I'll never understand folks. How does Cueto go from being the best pitcher on the team to out of the rotation or the one to be traded?

He's the closest to a big payday of the bunch, and he's got tremendous value right now. If I can sell him to get real help at SS or LF, I'd think hard about pulling the trigger.

Cueto's a great young pitcher -- but the team is loaded with great young pitching. Sell the guy who's going to bring the most value back to the team.

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 02:55 PM
He's the closest to a big payday of the bunch, and he's got tremendous value right now. If I can sell him to get real help at SS or LF, I'd think hard about pulling the trigger.

Cueto's a great young pitcher -- but the team is loaded with great young pitching. Sell the guy who's going to bring the most value back to the team.

If the difference in return is that great then I would probably deal Cueto. But I'm not out shopping him.

Cedric
10-11-2010, 03:01 PM
He's the closest to a big payday of the bunch, and he's got tremendous value right now. If I can sell him to get real help at SS or LF, I'd think hard about pulling the trigger.

Cueto's a great young pitcher -- but the team is loaded with great young pitching. Sell the guy who's going to bring the most value back to the team.

Perfectly put.

If Cueto headlining a package can bring back a Greinke type or a stud leadoff hitter/SS I'm all in that.

I don't think Edinson has that pull.

GAC
10-11-2010, 03:01 PM
Only ST can tell us that. It's nice to have this many viable candidates though. May the best man (men) win. ;)

Caveat Emperor
10-11-2010, 03:09 PM
If the difference in return is that great then I would probably deal Cueto. But I'm not out shopping him.

If my baseball people tell me Chapman will be ready as a starter next season, I'm on the phone to every team and asking after TOR starters, plus-defending SS w/ OB skills, and LF mashers with Cueto as the dangle.

The Reds have lots of chips that have zero value to the team (as it is currently built) other than as trade bait -- the losers of the SP-lottery and Yonder Alonso being the top prizes. Time to cash them in and build for another run in 2011.

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 03:14 PM
If my baseball people tell me Chapman will be ready as a starter next season, I'm on the phone to every team and asking after TOR starters, plus-defending SS w/ OB skills, and LF mashers with Cueto as the dangle.

The Reds have lots of chips that have zero value to the team (as it is currently built) other than as trade bait -- the losers of the SP-lottery and Yonder Alonso being the top prizes. Time to cash them in and build for another run in 2011.

I am with you. Alonso and the SP losers are all on the table. I would even deal Mes if the return was proper.

But the things you are asking for are rare, especially ones who are tradeable. I guess that's the rub.

Brutus
10-11-2010, 03:21 PM
I'll never understand folks. How does Cueto go from being the best pitcher on the team to out of the rotation or the one to be traded?

He's the best the Reds have and all I keep hearing is how he'll fail or be traded. Did Sunday not show you guys anything? About the same thing for Mike Leake. How could anyone give up on this guy already?

Trading someone doesn't equal disrespect. Sometimes you have to move your best assets to get the kind of talent you need at other positions.

Cueto, frankly, is the best trade asset (outside of Chapman) the Reds have. With a surplus of pitchers, it makes the most sense they should take advantage of his current value.

VR
10-11-2010, 03:22 PM
If my baseball people tell me Chapman will be ready as a starter next season, I'm on the phone to every team and asking after TOR starters, plus-defending SS w/ OB skills, and LF mashers with Cueto as the dangle.

The Reds have lots of chips that have zero value to the team (as it is currently built) other than as trade bait -- the losers of the SP-lottery and Yonder Alonso being the top prizes. Time to cash them in and build for another run in 2011.

Yes, this.

I'd give up Francisco (either one) as well.

If it was Mesaraco....it would have to be very sweet.

cincrazy
10-11-2010, 03:26 PM
I'll never understand folks. How does Cueto go from being the best pitcher on the team to out of the rotation or the one to be traded?

He's the best the Reds have and all I keep hearing is how he'll fail or be traded. Did Sunday not show you guys anything? About the same thing for Mike Leake. How could anyone give up on this guy already?

Cueto is a fine pitcher. But he's not an ace by any stretch of the imagination. If trading him can bring value at other spots, I do it in a heartbeat, considering our depth at SP.

_Sir_Charles_
10-11-2010, 03:29 PM
I think they are much more likely to be in AAA.

I also voted Chapman & Leake...and Homer's completely correct...they'll be in AAA awaiting a summons. Neither of them are bound for the pen.

sivman17
10-11-2010, 03:30 PM
Cueto is a fine pitcher. But he's not an ace by any stretch of the imagination. If trading him can bring value at other spots, I do it in a heartbeat, considering our depth at SP.

I'm not so sure about him not being an ace. He's only 24, and has shown steady improvement in each of his 3 seasons. I think he has the potential to be an ace. People say they want to trade him, but I say keep him and see how good he can be.

camisadelgolf
10-11-2010, 03:39 PM
Neither Homer Bailey nor Edinson Volquez have options, so they won't be headed for the minors next year. We all know Arroyo's status, so unless he's traded, he's in the rotation. Although Johnny Cueto has three option years remaining, he will receive a big raise and almost definitely won't be sent down regardless of how well the other starters perform. I think Mike Leake is destined for AAA, and I wouldn't be shocked if Wood joined him there if Chapman breaks camp as a starter next year.

Brutus
10-11-2010, 03:50 PM
Neither Homer Bailey nor Edinson Volquez have options, so they won't be headed for the minors next year. We all know Arroyo's status, so unless he's traded, he's in the rotation. Although Johnny Cueto has three option years remaining, he will receive a big raise and almost definitely won't be sent down regardless of how well the other starters perform. I think Mike Leake is destined for AAA, and I wouldn't be shocked if Wood joined him there if Chapman breaks camp as a starter next year.

I really wonder if the Reds aren't considering moving Volquez to the pen and grooming him to take over for Cordero after next season.

RE: Leake, I just don't see it. I think they like this kid a lot and after spending a full first professional season on the big league roster, I really don't think they're going to option him down unless his performance warrants it.

I think moving Chapman and/or Volquez to the pen and trading Cueto is higher on their list of choices than is optioning Leake next season.

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 03:56 PM
I really wonder if the Reds aren't considering moving Volquez to the pen and grooming him to take over for Cordero after next season.

RE: Leake, I just don't see it. I think they like this kid a lot and after spending a full first professional season on the big league roster, I really don't think they're going to option him down unless his performance warrants it.

I think moving Chapman and/or Volquez to the pen and trading Cueto is higher on their list of choices than is optioning Leake next season.

Does EV have the command to be a closer? People get frisky when Cordero throws Ball 1...

Brutus
10-11-2010, 04:01 PM
Does EV have the command to be a closer? People get frisky when Cordero throws Ball 1...

Granted, it's the extreme, but I think Carlos Marmol is an example of a guy that can succeed with poor command, provided you have filthy stuff. Cordero's command wouldn't be an issue if he were still striking out 9 guys per nine innings like he was a few years back.

I think a closer can overcome having a poor walk rate if they miss a lot of bats. I think Edinson's command will be better suited for a one inning stint. He's really good with two pitches and is capable of coming in and shutting down three hitters at a time. I don't have faith he can handle going more than 5-6 innings routinely, so I would seriously consider him in that role if the Reds think he's cut out for it.

OnBaseMachine
10-11-2010, 04:44 PM
I wouldn't trade Volquez. His stuff is among the best in baseball. He was nothing short of dominant in September after he tweaked his mechanics. I think he's got a change to be a legit number one starter. If healthy, he's capable of giving the Reds 200 innings with an ERA below 3.50 and 200+ K's next season.

It's an old cliche but it's true - you can never have enough pitching. I would hang on to Bailey, Chapman, Cueto, Leake, Volquez, and Wood. That's a great nucleus of young arms.

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 04:48 PM
I wouldn't trade Volquez. His stuff is among the best in baseball. He was nothing short of dominant in September after he tweaked his mechanics.

September was great but it would make me more of a believer if he faced someone better than Pitt, Milwaukee, Houston or Arizona.

Brutus
10-11-2010, 04:55 PM
I wouldn't trade Volquez. His stuff is among the best in baseball. He was nothing short of dominant in September after he tweaked his mechanics. I think he's got a change to be a legit number one starter. If healthy, he's capable of giving the Reds 200 innings with an ERA below 3.50 and 200+ K's next season.

It's an old cliche but it's true - you can never have enough pitching. I would hang on to Bailey, Chapman, Cueto, Leake, Volquez, and Wood. That's a great nucleus of young arms.

Why hang on to a surplus of something when you have positions that need addressing? You have led the charge on wanting to rid of Jonny Gomes and upgrade LF... why hang on to 7 starting pitchers if one or two can be moved, thereby upgrading these other positions.

It doesn't do the Reds any good to hang on to all those guys if it's going to prohibit the ability to improve the club. The Reds are no better with 7 pitchers than they are with 5, unless a few of them go to the pen. Even then, I'd argue they hold more value in a possible trade return than simply being middle to middle-late relievers.

Cedric
10-11-2010, 05:04 PM
I'm not so sure about him not being an ace. He's only 24, and has shown steady improvement in each of his 3 seasons. I think he has the potential to be an ace. People say they want to trade him, but I say keep him and see how good he can be.

He doesn't miss enough bats to ever profile as an ace. He's a good young pitcher and he has value for sure. His k/9 has actually declined each season of his career.

Without a healthy jump in those numbers I wouldn't project Cueto into the TOR anytime soon. He looks to be a steady 3.50/4 ERA guy.

That's obviously got some major value though.

reds1869
10-11-2010, 05:07 PM
Why hang on to a surplus of something when you have positions that need addressing?

Because you are a few strokes of bad luck away from having a deficit. Good pitching is the most valuable commodity in baseball and should only be dealt if receiving legitimate value in return.

OnBaseMachine
10-11-2010, 05:08 PM
Why hang on to a surplus of something when you have positions that need addressing? You have led the charge on wanting to rid of Jonny Gomes and upgrade LF... why hang on to 7 starting pitchers if one or two can be moved, thereby upgrading these other positions.

It doesn't do the Reds any good to hang on to all those guys if it's going to prohibit the ability to improve the club. The Reds are no better with 7 pitchers than they are with 5, unless a few of them go to the pen. Even then, I'd argue they hold more value in a possible trade return than simply being middle to middle-late relievers.

Because you never know when an injury or off year might pop up.

If the Royals offered up Grienke for Bailey + Alonso, I would do it. Or if the Dodgers offerd Kemp for Bailey, I would do that too. You see where I'm getting at. I would need a comparable talent in terms of age and upside to even consider dealing one of our arms.

Superdude
10-11-2010, 05:08 PM
Because you never know when an injury or off year might pop up.

It's nice to have insurance in case of injuries, but handing a few starts over to Lecure next season isn't the end of the world. Cueto and Alonso...that would bring back a haul.

Caveat Emperor
10-11-2010, 05:10 PM
It's an old cliche but it's true - you can never have enough pitching. I would hang on to Bailey, Chapman, Cueto, Leake, Volquez, and Wood. That's a great nucleus of young arms.

It is, but you can't pitch a 6 man rotation, and Bronson Arroyo is going to factor in to this discussion as well.

Guys like Matt Maloney and Sam LeCure should be "depth" guys -- competent pitchers that can throw 4.75 - 5.00 ERA ball if a starter heads to the DL. You don't waste actual talent on depth when you have holes in the rest of your ballclub.

OnBaseMachine
10-11-2010, 05:11 PM
He doesn't miss enough bats to ever profile as an ace. He's a good young pitcher and he has value for sure. His k/9 has actually declined each season of his career.
.

Cueto had a 9.1 SwStr% this year which is actually above average.

Brutus
10-11-2010, 05:12 PM
Because you never know when an injury or off year might pop up.

If the Royals offered up Grienke for Bailey + Alonso, I would do it. Or if the Dodgers offerd Kemp for Bailey, I would do that too. You see where I'm getting at. I would need a comparable talent in terms of age and upside to even consider dealing one of our arms.

Would you rather leave Gomes in left so you can have a spare pitcher in case someone gets hurt?

It seems you want to have it both ways. You want the Reds to upgrade the offense (defense) at a few positions, and after the playoffs that definitely seems to be a need, yet you don't want them trading the one position on the roster they have the depth and surplus to afford trading.

You have to put forth the best 25 guys you can. No question it's good to have depth, but at what cost? If you're preparing for injury at the expense of other positions, your'e defeating the purpose of having those players.

If the Reds could afford going out and purchasing Crawford or Werth, then by all means, keep all the pitching you can keep in house. But since we all know that's not very likely, the Reds are going to have to trade a pitcher if they want to maximize their 25-man roster, and especially, their everyday lineup.

PuffyPig
10-11-2010, 05:15 PM
Keep them all, we need depth in the starting rotation.

Why limit yourself by trading young starters, when each may eventually be great.

If all the young starters come through and you really have a log jam through the year, move Arroyo at that time.

Bailey has way too much potential to stick in the bullpen at this stage.

OnBaseMachine
10-11-2010, 05:18 PM
Would you rather leave Gomes in left so you can have a spare pitcher in case someone gets hurt?

It seems you want to have it both ways. You want the Reds to upgrade the offense (defense) at a few positions, and after the playoffs that definitely seems to be a need, yet you don't want them trading the one position on the roster they have the depth and surplus to afford trading.


As I said in my other post, while I prefer to hang on to our young pitching, if the Reds can get a comparable talent in terms of age and upside in return for one of our young pitchers then I would be willing to pull the trigger. Matt Kemp and Grady Sizemore would be two of my targets. Both are young and have plenty of upside and would be ideals fits for LF. Bailey + a lesser prospect for one of those two would work for me.

Those are the type of deals I would look into. Otherwise, I'm not interested in trading our young pitching for one year rentals.

PuffyPig
10-11-2010, 05:19 PM
Would you rather leave Gomes in left so you can have a spare pitcher in case someone gets hurt?



I'm certainly not trading someone like Volquez, Wood, Leake, Bailey, Cueto etc. to get an upgrade in left field.

The problem isn't some much as do we need a spare pitcher (though every team does), but being forced to make a choice as to which one to trade.

LF aren't so hard to obtain that you need to be trading young good starting pitching to do it.

If I'm moving a starter, I want a SS back.

Big Klu
10-11-2010, 05:20 PM
I have a feeling either Cueto or Volquez are traded this off season. You could throw Homer into the mix but I don't know. Volquez's dud in the post season sure didn't help his trade value.


I said the same thing last night.

I think one of them will be dealt for need elsewhere. Just a hunch.

I agree. I think one of Cueto or Volquez will be traded. (There is an outside chance that it could be Bailey or Leake, but I doubt it.) My gut reaction is that it will be Volquez.



Chapman in the pen again; and use Leake and Alonso as bait to get the big bat.

I don't think Chapman will be in the pen. I think he goes back down to AAA to build his innings, and then he will be recalled as a starter. The only way that Chapman becomes a reliever again is if he fails as a starter.

Brutus
10-11-2010, 05:22 PM
Keep them all, we need depth in the starting rotation.

Why limit yourself by trading young starters, when each may eventually be great.

If all the young starters come through and you really have a log jam through the year, move Arroyo at that time.

Bailey has way too much potential to stick in the bullpen at this stage.

By that logic, no one would ever profit from the stock market. They'd all hold on to their stocks so long that when they realized they're not going to pan out, they will have already lost thousands or millions of dollars.

These players are assets. You have to look at their perceived value and weigh that against the chance of success. In this case, the Reds have options and have the ability to play for one or two of them not living up to their potential. They have a chance to go with 3 stud pitchers even if a few don't live up to the hype.

I am a firm believer in selling high and buying low. When you've got someone that has significant trade value, if you can improve your club and upgrade another position, you do it. Now, someone like Jay Bruce or Joey Votto that might be the face of the franchise for several years you be a little more conservative in keeping. But while Cueto is and may continue to be a good pitcher, the potential value he has by way of return is much greater than holding someone back because of injury risk or because someone "might" be great.

I definitely do not want to trade any of these guys. But I think people are making the mistake of getting too attached. I see the Reds have something other teams want, and they have a chance to parlay that into upgrading a position that is in apparent need.

For all the last several weeks on this board spending time discussing how bad LF is right now, the best and most effective way to upgrade that position, without breaking the bank, is to trade another commodity. The Reds have a surplus at SP and 1B (Yonder Alonso) with a deep lower-level minor league system that's just calling out to be utilized this offseason.

Brutus
10-11-2010, 05:24 PM
As I said in my other post, while I prefer to hang on to our young pitching, if the Reds can get a comparable talent in terms of age and upside in return for one of our young pitchers then I would be willing to pull the trigger. Matt Kemp and Grady Sizemore would be two of my targets. Both are young and have plenty of upside and would be ideals fits for LF. Bailey + a lesser prospect for one of those two would work for me.

Those are the type of deals I would look into. Otherwise, I'm not interested in trading our young pitching for one year rentals.

Oh, I agree with this completely. I'm not saying trade them just to trade them. But that's how I'm looking at it--if the Reds get creative, I believe they have the depth and talent to go out and acquire a Kemp or Sizemore. That's precisely why I'm saying they should trade someone.

I agree with you that it doesn't do any good to trade one for a rental or for someone that's mediocre. But I'm weighing their potential value and saying I really believe the Reds can fetch someone of value in left or at shortstop.

Caveat Emperor
10-11-2010, 05:25 PM
Keep them all, we need depth in the starting rotation.

Why limit yourself by trading young starters, when each may eventually be great.

Because if you want to compete long-term as a small market franchise, you need to be smart about cashing out on players when they have high value and can bring back quality return. Churn is crucial to keeping a run going as opposed to peaking in a season and falling back to earth.

With the talent coming back in the starting rotation, I'm not above selling Johnny Cueto this offseason for high-level prospects if I can take the savings from not going to Arb with him and put it back someplace else into the team.

Brutus
10-11-2010, 05:26 PM
I'm certainly not trading someone like Volquez, Wood, Leake, Bailey, Cueto etc. to get an upgrade in left field.

The problem isn't some much as do we need a spare pitcher (though every team does), but being forced to make a choice as to which one to trade.

LF aren't so hard to obtain that you need to be trading young good starting pitching to do it.

If I'm moving a starter, I want a SS back.

LF aren't hard to obtain, but to get a good one, you either need assets to trade or be willing to pay big bucks on the open market. Jayson Werth would be perfectly easy to get -- that is if the Reds are willing to pay $12-15 million a year.

Topcat
10-11-2010, 05:29 PM
Really not excited by making any of the choices. I want all the depth we can keep.

Caveat Emperor
10-11-2010, 05:33 PM
Really not excited by making any of the choices. I want all the depth we can keep.

Depth is great. Having a real slugger in LF or a SS who is a safe bet to put up an OBP north of .300 is better, IMO.

Topcat
10-11-2010, 05:36 PM
Depth is great. Having a real slugger in LF or a SS who is a safe bet to put up an OBP north of .300 is better, IMO.



Very true but lets hope we get both under there 1st contracts also.:cool:

pahster
10-11-2010, 06:04 PM
....It seemed like every time I looked up, teams were getting hits off Chapman.
Now, I don't know if that's a perception issue on my part or not. I suspect it is, but I think he'll start the year in the minors again.

I think the other spot (out of the rotation) will go to the guy who gets hurt. If nobody gets hurt, Travis Wood will go to Louisville for a month or two.

Of course, THE TRADE might happen and then all bets are off. Jocketty was never afraid to bring talent in or to let it go. It will be interesting to see what happens with a GM who does not operate from a position of scarcity.

His H/9 was 6.1, so it was just you. :)

But I think he'll start in the minors again too. I suspect he won't be down there for long.

mth123
10-11-2010, 08:02 PM
I think Chapman and Leake start in AAA and I would hold onto both Cueto and Volquez.

:thumbup:

mth123
10-11-2010, 08:24 PM
Leake was terrible in June, July and August before being shutdown. He had a nice start to his career, but after about 75 IP, the league figured him and he was shut down with shoulder pain. IMO, he needs a full season in AAA where he can be properly babied and build those innings. He arrived well ahead of schedule and the Reds have other options who frankly are/were better after the mystery was solved.

Chapman was moved to the pen and logged less than 110 innings in 2010. As a cuban national team guy, his season high was less than 125 IP. He needs another pitch if he's going to be a starter and I suspect he's in the pen to stay.

Bailey missed three months with shoulder soreness and hasn't ever pitched a full major league season.

Wood looked impressive and went a combined 205 innings in 2010. He's ready for a spot and his composure is off the charts, but again, he's never really thrown a full season in the big leagues and we don't really know yet how much of his success was from a "first time around the league" bump.

Volquez is coming off of TJ surgery and was very inconsistent. He logged less than 100 innings at all levels in 2010 and while the success rate with TJ is high, some guys still suffer recurrences as the innings mount.

IMO, the Reds have two spots that can be written in ink if they retain Arroyo as he and Cueto are the only guys who look like the team can be confident in. I'm not seeing enough to say the team should trade one of these guys for a position player. If one is included in a package for a TOR guy who can add a third name to Arroyo and Cueto, I'm all for it, but subtracting from the complement of starters (especially since its very possible that Chapman becomes a reliever) to add a position player is not a good plan IMO.

The Reds have plenty of pieces outside the magnificent seven to pursue a LF with. Alonso, Maloney, Heisey, Gomes, Francisco, Valaika, Frazier, Sappelt, Wlad, Burton, Fisher, Valiquette, Horst, Lecure, Ondrusek, Smith and a host of lower level guys are all fair game, but short of Ryan Braun, Mike Stanton or Jason Heyward falling in the Reds lap, the big 7 only go in a deal to upgrade the rotation IMO.

HokieRed
10-11-2010, 08:39 PM
Most obvious single way to bump this team up to the level it needs to be is to get Chapman in the rotation and Bailey pitching as he can. I see a rotation of Arroyo, Bailey, Chapman, Cueto, and Wood. Leake to AAA, Volquez to be traded.

mth123
10-11-2010, 08:44 PM
Most obvious single way to bump this team up to the level it needs to be is to get Chapman in the rotation and Bailey pitching as he can. I see a rotation of Arroyo, Bailey, Chapman, Cueto, and Wood. Leake to AAA, Volquez to be traded.

Agree in theory, but unless the Reds go with a 6 man rotation, a 22 year old kid who hasn't ever thrown 125 innings in a season isn't a viable rotation candidate no matter how hard the throws. He spends a season in AAA bumping his IP over 150 while adding to his assortment or he spends the year as the replacement for Rhodes in the Reds pen. I think the Reds won't be able to send him down again and the pen will become his home.

sivman17
10-11-2010, 08:59 PM
They could also use Chapman in a similar way that they used Leake this year. Shut him down in August or so once he reaches his innings limit. Or move him to the bullpen so we can still get some use out of him. That's of course if he is effective as a starter, which personally I'm not sure how ready he will be come April.

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 09:11 PM
Most obvious single way to bump this team up to the level it needs to be is to get Chapman in the rotation and Bailey pitching as he can. I see a rotation of Arroyo, Bailey, Chapman, Cueto, and Wood. Leake to AAA, Volquez to be traded.

If Volquez has market value, this would be my #1 choice right now. Maybe let Leake and Wood duke it out in ST with the victor ending up in Cincy.

PuffyPig
10-11-2010, 09:12 PM
By that logic, no one would ever profit from the stock market. They'd all hold on to their stocks so long that when they realized they're not going to pan out, they will have already lost thousands or millions of dollars.



No one is suggesting we trade a failed starter, you are suggetsing trading a good young starter who might still pan out.

Your stock analogy makes no sense.

If you have 6 greats tocks, you don't dump one just becuase you have 6 good ones.

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 09:13 PM
No one is suggesting we trade a failed starter, you are suggetsing trading a good young starter who might still pan out.

Your stock analogy makes no sense.

If you have 6 greats tocks, you don't dump one just becuase you have 6 good ones.

You dump one if you have to pay the rent.

PuffyPig
10-11-2010, 09:16 PM
You dump one if you have to pay the rent.

If you are having trouble paying the rent, you don't play the stock market.

You don't make selling choices based on short term financal needs.

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 09:18 PM
If you are having trouble paying the rent, you don't play the stock market.

You don't make selling choices based on short term financal needs.

It's not playing the mkt, it's having money tied up in other investments.

PuffyPig
10-11-2010, 09:26 PM
It's not playing the mkt, it's having money tied up in other investments.

Why would someone be renting if they have an investment portfolio?

Buying a house is your first and best investment.

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 09:29 PM
Why would someone be renting if they have an investment portfolio?

Buying a house is your first and best investment.

50 years ago.

Matt700wlw
10-11-2010, 09:31 PM
7 legit pitchers for 5 spots, if they stand pat in that area...4 under the age of 25...

Have they EVER had this "problem?"

Brutus
10-11-2010, 09:54 PM
If you are having trouble paying the rent, you don't play the stock market.

You don't make selling choices based on short term financal needs.

The stock analogy is applicable, because as a lot of financially savvy, baseball fans have noted in the past, managing assets in the form of baseball players is a lot like stocks and other financial dealings.

There are a lot of reasons why you'd sell off a stock. You might want to diversify your portfolio, so you don't have too many resources committed to one realm. You sell of stocks sometimes because you think the dollar value of the stock as it currently is might be better than the risk of it devaluing going forward.

The worst mistake a general manager can make is waiting too long to trade a player--especially one that is signed to a multi-year, high value contract. And the Reds are in a position to trade a commodity that is (currently) both affordable and valuable, while getting something of good value in return and maintaining a strength on the club. I fully intend Cueto will continue to be a good pitcher, but what if he's not? The Reds will have missed an opportunity to trade a valuable piece.

You gotta know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em. Holding on to a prospect or player too long has been the doom of many good franchises. I honestly felt, more than anything, that if Billy Beane's "Moneyball" approach taught us anything, it was actually his ability to recognize not just value, but perceived value.

I think more important for the Reds is not what we (read: they) think of Cueto's value is going forward, but what others think of his value is now. As I said, I think if the Reds were in a position like the Yankees to throw $20 million at LF and/or SS, then there's no reason to trade these guys. But they're not in that position, so they need to diversify. And like a good stock, you balance the price you're going to get now with what you expect later. And I honestly think Cueto is the perfect blend in just that.

OnBaseMachine
10-11-2010, 11:14 PM
His H/9 was 6.1, so it was just you. :)

But I think he'll start in the minors again too. I suspect he won't be down there for long.

And that includes a .326 BABIP, so if anything he was a little unlucky.

mth123
10-12-2010, 05:22 AM
7 legit pitchers for 5 spots, if they stand pat in that area...4 under the age of 25...

Have they EVER had this "problem?"

I get your point and agree, but the Reds have two legit pitchers and five promising candidates (six if you count Maloney). This is a team that has put itself in position to challenge for the World Series title and I just don't see a team going into a season like that without having enough options to cover the 5 rotation spots and five of these seven guys are question marks. I don't think pitching will be dealt unless pitching is received in return. If they can get a guy for LF in the process great, but subtracting an arm for a position player is a bad idea.