First Day of the Hot Stove- 3-Way Proposal

[Benihana]

Well, today is the first official day of the Reds offseason, so might as well fire up the Hot Stove and begin discussing ways to improve the club for next year. As per discussion in another thread, I think many of us believe the Reds will deal at least one starter to plug another hole this offseason. With that said here goes my first ridiculous 3-way trade proposal of the day:

Reds trade: Yonder Alonso, one of Leake/Cueto/Volquez/Bailey
Dodgers trade: Matt Kemp, James Loney, Kyle Russell
Rays trade: Reid Brignac

Reds get: Matt Kemp, Reid Brignac
Dodgers get: Yonder Alonso, one of Leake/Cueto/Volquez/Bailey
Rays get: James Loney, Kyle Russell

Reds plug big holes at LF and SS (or 2B if BP leaves after 2011 and Cozart or Janish emerge as everyday SS) while dealing from their two biggest surpluses (1B and SP)

Dodgers shed two huge underachieving disappointments and get younger and a big upgrade in their rotation

Rays trade from a surplus (MI) to get their replacement for FA-Carlos Pena as well as an OF prospect with the imminent departure of Carl Crawford

2011 Reds:

2B Phillips
SS Brignac
1B Votto
LF Kemp
RF Bruce
3B Rolen
CF Stubbs
C Hernanigan/Mesoraco

SP Arroyo
SP Wood
SP Cueto/Volquez/Bailey/Leake
SP Cueto/Volquez/Bailey/Leake
SP Cueto/Volquez/Bailey/Leake

Thoughts?

[edabbs44]

LA needs offense more than pitching, I think.

[camisadelgolf]

Yonder Alonso + Mike Leake + Chris Valaika for Josh Willingham + Drew Storen

[Homer Bailey]

I'm not seeing the Dodgers listening to anything like that.

And queue Doug saying Brignac is basically of equal value to Cozart :)

[Ghosts of 1990]

Alonso and Leake for Kemp makes too much sense for all parties involved.

[edabbs44]

Yonder Alonso + Mike Leake + Chris Valaika for Josh Willingham + Drew Storen

That would be a disaster of biblical proportions.

[edabbs44]

Alonso and Leake for Kemp makes too much sense for all parties involved.

I think Cincy would be buying high on a buy low guy.

[camisadelgolf]

That would be a disaster of biblical proportions.
How do you really feel?

[edabbs44]

How do you really feel?

:)

[edabbs44]

The guy who could be available and I would empty it for would be Greinke.

Volquez/Alonso/Heisey/minor leaguer for Greinke? If Aviles still can play SS, it might be nice to take a run at him as well.

[Benihana]

I'm not seeing the Dodgers listening to anything like that.


Um, why?

Alonso projects better than Loney at this point, and younger and cheaper. In fact, MLBTR posts Loney as a possible non-tender candidate today.

And Matt Kemp being on the block is well documented. If the Reds are talking about moving a guy like Leake, etc. EVERY team is listening to something like that, particularly for a guy who has fallen out of favor and is on the block.

[Redsfan320]

Yonder Alonso + Mike Leake + Chris Valaika for Josh Willingham + Drew Storen

Apparently, Storen is headed back to college. (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Drew-Storen-rush-chairman-Nats-rookie-headed-b?urn=mlb-270831)

320

[Homer Bailey]

Um, why?

Alonso projects better than Loney at this point, and younger and cheaper. In fact, MLBTR posts Loney as a possible non-tender candidate today.

And Matt Kemp being on the block is well documented. If the Reds are talking about moving a guy like Leake, etc. EVERY team is listening to something like that, particularly for a guy who has fallen out of favor and is on the block.

A move like that screams rebuilding, and is based around 2 unproven players. I'm not sure the league is nearly as high on a low-K pitcher like Leake, especially considering he actually walks a fair amount of hitters. Kemp is a year removed from being a 5 win player. I just don't think a move like that would send the right message to their fanbase.

[WVRed]

Actually I think that three way makes more sense if Alonso and Leake were headed to Tampa Bay. They are going to be the ones shedding salary in the offseason.

Wonder what the odds of getting Seattle to surrender King Felix are? With how much disarray the Mariners are in, they may just want to return to the drawing board and stack up on prospects.

[Benihana]

A move like that screams rebuilding, and is based around 2 unproven players. I'm not sure the league is nearly as high on a low-K pitcher like Leake, especially considering he actually walks a fair amount of hitters. Kemp is a year removed from being a 5 win player. I just don't think a move like that would send the right message to their fanbase.

The organization is in disarray, and if anything, now is when the Dodgers are going to be rebuilding. Regardless, I didn't say it had to be Leake- could be any of those four that get dealt, and one could argue that such a move would improve the Dodgers right now as well as in the future, especially given how low some people in that organization are on Kemp. I'd consider throwing in Heisey, Frazier or Francisco if it sealed the deal. The Reds with Kemp in LF would be favorites to repeat.

[Benihana]

Actually I think that three way makes more sense if Alonso and Leake were headed to Tampa Bay. They are going to be the ones shedding salary in the offseason.

Wonder what the odds of getting Seattle to surrender King Felix are? With how much disarray the Mariners are in, they may just want to return to the drawing board and stack up on prospects.

Alonso maybe, but I'm not sure the Rays are looking for pitching at this point. I think they need a 1B and OF with the imminent departures of Pena and Crawford (hence they get Loney and Russell). I'm not sure if I'd do Alonso-for-Brignac straight up before we know what we have in Cozart. Kemp is the main guy in this deal for me, Brignac is gravy. I may try to buy cheap on Tim Beckham although I don't expect him to amount to much at this point.

[OesterPoster]

Actually I think that three way makes more sense if Alonso and Leake were headed to Tampa Bay. They are going to be the ones shedding salary in the offseason.

Wonder what the odds of getting Seattle to surrender King Felix are? With how much disarray the Mariners are in, they may just want to return to the drawing board and stack up on prospects.

Felix is under contract for 4 more years, total of $68 million. I don't see them trading him until the trade deadline in 2013 or 2014, if then.

[bucksfan2]

The organization is in disarray, and if anything, now is when the Dodgers are going to be rebuilding. Regardless, I didn't say it had to be Leake- could be any of those four that get dealt, and one could argue that such a move would improve the Dodgers right now as well as in the future, especially given how low some people in that organization are on Kemp. I'd consider throwing in Heisey, Frazier or Francisco if it sealed the deal. The Reds with Kemp in LF would be favorites to repeat.

Don't get me wrong that organization is a hot mess right now. But, if the divorce situation and ownership is figured out before the bulk of the free agency signings the Dodgers can turn themselves around pretty quickly. The Dodgers still have a pretty decent core, will have $25M in a financial headache coming off the books in Manny, and just so happen to be in the 3rd largest market in America. I don't think its inconceivable that they could land one of Lee and Crawford, or even both for that matter.

[hebroncougar]

I was thinking today what nice trading partner TB might be, since Pena will be leaving and we have Alonso.

[WVRed]

Alonso maybe, but I'm not sure the Rays are looking for pitching at this point. I think they need a 1B and OF with the imminent departures of Pena and Crawford (hence they get Loney and Russell). I'm not sure if I'd do Alonso-for-Brignac straight up before we know what we have in Cozart. Kemp is the main guy in this deal for me, Brignac is gravy. I may try to buy cheap on Tim Beckham although I don't expect him to amount to much at this point.

My point is though, to the Rays, Alonso >>>>>>> Loney. Higher upside and farther away from arbitration.

The Dodgers, on the other hand, would be more likely to sign a Carlos Pena than trade for the unproven Alonso.

[WVRed]

I was thinking today what nice trading partner TB might be, since Pena will be leaving and we have Alonso.

The only thing I am thinking though is what would Tampa Bay have that we need?

[Benihana]

The only thing I am thinking though is what would Tampa Bay have that we need?

Exactly. Desmond Jennings is a pipe dream. Not sure what else they have available that I'd trade Alonso for at this point.

[WVRed]

Exactly. Desmond Jennings is a pipe dream. Not sure what else they have available that I'd trade Alonso for at this point.

I had read that Tampa Bay was looking to slash salary this offseason.

Someone I would love to see in a Reds uniform but doesn't really fit the bill of a need at this point is Evan Longoria. Jennings OTOH would be nice, but somebody the Rays will hang onto.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Didn't the dodgers recently say that they're resigning Kemp and aren't interested in trading him? Just in the past month or two?

[blumj]

Well, if the Rays have to do more to cut payroll than just let their free agents go, then I could see them maybe trading Bartlett instead of Brignac, and/or Upton, Shoppach, Garza.

[lollipopcurve]

Volquez/Alonso/Heisey/minor leaguer for Greinke? If Aviles still can play SS, it might be nice to take a run at him as well.

I like KC as a trade partner too. DeJesus, Aviles and Betemit could all be nice adds for the Reds. Not sure Grienke is going to be available this offseason, though.

I wonder if they could deal some pitching to the Dodgers for Furcal.

[Benihana]

I like KC as a trade partner too. DeJesus, Aviles and Betemit could all be nice adds for the Reds. Not sure Grienke is going to be available this offseason, though.

I wonder if they could deal some pitching to the Dodgers for Furcal.

Furcal has 10/5. Would he want to leave LA for Cincy?

Aging shortstops with back problems scare me, especially next to aging 3B with back problems. Furcal has only played one season with triple-digit games in the last three years (last season) and he OPS'd .711 that year. Sure, lightning could strike twice as it struck once with Rolen, but I think I'd pass on this.

[lollipopcurve]

Furcal has 10/5. Would he want to leave LA for Cincy?

Didn't know that.

But LA is a mess now. I could easily see him coming to hitter-friendly Cincinnati.

The more I look at it, though, the less likely it seems -- it would have to be a salary swap, and the only Red I'd throw into that equation would be Cordero, and that wouldn't interest LA....

[Homer Bailey]

News: Greinke is unlikely to be traded this offseason, according to the Kansas City Star.

Analysis: Greink expressed some dismay in waiting around for the Royals to get their act together, but he has two years left on his contract. The Royals will likely trade Greinke at some point, but it'll likely be next offseason or around the 2012 deadline.

[Mario-Rijo]

Well, if the Rays have to do more to cut payroll than just let their free agents go, then I could see them maybe trading Bartlett instead of Brignac, and/or Upton, Shoppach, Garza.

Exactly, Bartlett should be in line to make about 2 million or a bit more and although he had a down year he'd be a solid addition to the top of our lineup and defense. I could also see them part ways with Upton as well. They will need power or at least power potential in return. Something involving Upton and Bartlett or Alonso, Francisco etc. makes some sense.

How about trying this one on for size.

Tribe gets: Volquez/Bailey, Alonso, Francisco, Owings & Janish
Reds get: Asdrubal Cabrera & Shin Soo Choo

Reds get: Greinke & Alex Gordon
KC gets: Bailey/Volquez, Sulbaran, Brandon Phillips & W. Balentein

A. Cabrera - SS
Choo - LF
Votto - 1B
Rolen - 3B
Bruce - RF
Stubbs - CF
Cozart - 2B
Hernandez - C

Hanigan - C
Gordon - 3B/1B
Cairo - IF
Heisey - OF
Nix - OF

Greinke
Cueto
Arroyo
Wood
Leake

Cordero - CL (sorry no choice really)
Chapman - SU (with the way things are going it seems inevitable)
Masset - SU
Arredondo - MR (might as well ease him back in)
Bray - MR
Burton - MR (my hope but I'm assuming it won't happen)
Ondrusek - LR

On their way/In waiting/Depth:
C. Valaika
D. Mesoraco
T. Frazier
K. Negron
D. Sappelt
F. Perez
S. LeCure
J. Smith
M. Maloney
P. Valiquette

[Mario-Rijo]

News: Greinke is unlikely to be traded this offseason, according to the Kansas City Star.

Analysis: Greink expressed some dismay in waiting around for the Royals to get their act together, but he has two years left on his contract. The Royals will likely trade Greinke at some point, but it'll likely be next offseason or around the 2012 deadline.

Id' give it the 'ole college try though.

[backbencher]

How about trying this one on for size.

Tribe gets: Volquez/Bailey, Alonso, Francisco, Owings & Janish
Reds get: Asdrubal Cabrera & Shin Soo Choo

Reds get: Greinke & Alex Gordon
KC gets: Bailey/Volquez, Sulbaran, Brandon Phillips & W. Balentein


The Tribe aren't likely to trade for Alonso. Royals aren't likely to trade for Phillips (Alonso, either).

[mth123]

The only thing I am thinking though is what would Tampa Bay have that we need?

Alonso, Valaika, Burton and Valiquette for Brignac, Matt Joyce and Angel Torres.

Joyce and Heisey would form a 30+ HR platoon with on base ability and good defense. Brignac would be the guy to play twice a week at 3B, occassionally at 2B and provide a lefty alternative to Cozart. We know about Phillips' splits and Rolen's need for a solid caddy, but Cozart has shown some splits of his own as he's reached the high minors. A lefty alternative who can play 2B, 3B and SS would be as valuable as many of the starters on this team.

Angel Torres would add another solid lefty at AAA and would be a guy to add some depth for 2011 and be ready around 2012. I'd prefer to keep adding starters rather than subtracting them until some of these guys actually prove themselves.

[Captain Hook]

I'd love me some Choo next year, but doesn't he have to head back to Korea to serve in their military?

[camisadelgolf]

Exactly, Bartlett should be in line to make about 2 million or a bit more and although he had a down year he'd be a solid addition to the top of our lineup and defense. I could also see them part ways with Upton as well. They will need power or at least power potential in return. Something involving Upton and Bartlett or Alonso, Francisco etc. makes some sense.

How about trying this one on for size.

Tribe gets: Volquez/Bailey, Alonso, Francisco, Owings & Janish
Reds get: Asdrubal Cabrera & Shin Soo Choo

Reds get: Greinke & Alex Gordon
KC gets: Bailey/Volquez, Sulbaran, Brandon Phillips & W. Balentein

A. Cabrera - SS
Choo - LF
Votto - 1B
Rolen - 3B
Bruce - RF
Stubbs - CF
Cozart - 2B
Hernandez - C

Hanigan - C
Gordon - 3B/1B
Cairo - IF
Heisey - OF
Nix - OF

Greinke
Cueto
Arroyo
Wood
Leake

Cordero - CL (sorry no choice really)
Chapman - SU (with the way things are going it seems inevitable)
Masset - SU
Arredondo - MR (might as well ease him back in)
Bray - MR
Burton - MR (my hope but I'm assuming it won't happen)
Ondrusek - LR

On their way/In waiting/Depth:
C. Valaika
D. Mesoraco
T. Frazier
K. Negron
D. Sappelt
F. Perez
S. LeCure
J. Smith
M. Maloney
P. Valiquette
Owings and Balentien are both free agents.

[Brutus]

Owings and Balentien are both free agents.

Owings is not technically a free agent, though certainly he has the right to elect for free agency due to his 3+ years of service after his outright assignment (which is probably your point). He's still on his original 7-year minor league contract, giving the Reds his protection rights. Granted, he can become a free agent by election, but if he doesn't elect to do so soon then he stays under his original minor league UPC. The other issue is that Owings will be Rule 5 eligible even if he doesn't opt for free agency.

I'm fairly certain Balentien's original minor league contract is expired, so I agree that he's a free agent and can sign with any club.

EDIT: if the Reds add either one back to the roster prior to their election of free agency, this nullifies their ability to become a free agent because it will then force the Reds to tender Major League contracts for the upcoming season.

[camisadelgolf]

Owings was outrighted and therefore becomes a free agent at the end of the year. Then again, I think you showed me wrong once before, so let me know if you know something else. Besides, like you implied, he'll be nontendered anyway.

[Topcat]

Yikes the natives are restless after this year of great progression. Changes need to be made but I would be awful careful on who is dealt and acquired. In other words I've got nothing right now .

[Brutus]

Owings was outrighted and therefore becomes a free agent at the end of the year. Then again, I think you showed me wrong once before, so let me know if you know something else. Besides, like you implied, he'll be nontendered anyway.

I've been working on a story for Biz of Baseball regarding offseason protection and personnel, and in doing so, I was able to get some procedure questions verified by someone in baseball, so while I'm still in the process of making sure of the details, I am fairly certain I have finally grasped this part of it.

Essentially, when a player is outrighted either for the second time or having 3+ years service (the latter of which applies to Micah Owings), the players can indeed elect for free agency provided the player is not returned to the 40-man roster after the season. But unless the player opts for free agency prior to the time of such election, the team retains his rights via the player's 7-year initial minor league or subsquent multi-year minor league contract, that is assuming seasons still remain.

In the case of Owings, he was signed in 2005, which would cover the 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 seasons in addition to that first year. That intial minor league contract, believe it or not, actually does not get nullified when a player is added to the 40-man roster and signs a Major League contract, but it just is overridden while the MLB UPC is valid.

Because his contract was outright assigned to the minors, the Reds will not need to tender him a contract for the upcoming season if Owings does not elect for free agency. They can keep him under one more season of his minor league contract unless they add him back to the 40-man roster, in which case they would have to tender him a new Major League deal.

Because Owings has 3 years of service, he does have the ability to become a free agent. But because he has seasons left on his minor league contract, which the Reds own after being assigned from Arizona in the Adam Dunn trade, they still hold protection rights.

What's interesting is that if he had spent all of 2007 with Arizona, instead of pitching one game in AAA, that season would not count toward his seven seasons and he'd have two additional years left on his Minor League deal instead of just one. Full years spent on an active or disabled roster for the Major Leagues do not count against that contract.

If Owings does not elect to become a free agent, he reverts back to his minor league contract, which expires after next season, and he immediately becomes eligible to be selected in this year's Rule 5 draft--which any team could take him if they're willing to give him a Major League contract and keep him active all season.

Now let's say Owings was outrighted in this scenario, but his minor league contract was expired (see Justin Lehr and Corky Miller last season). If Owings didn't opt for free agency, the Reds would have to either tender him a Major League contract or sign him to a minor league contract.

Typically, what I'm describing doesn't happen because usually when a player is outright assigned, their initial minor league contracts have expired. After that first deal, players typically work on 1-year contracts. Owings seems to be one of those rare cases though where he has years still covered on his original rookie deal, so the Reds would still be able to keep him unless he decides to go the free agency route.

[camisadelgolf]

I've been working on a story for Biz of Baseball regarding offseason protection and personnel, and in doing so, I was able to get some procedure questions verified by someone in baseball, so while I'm still in the process of making sure of the details, I am fairly certain I have finally grasped this part of it.

Essentially, when a player is outrighted either for the second time or having 3+ years service (the latter of which applies to Micah Owings), the players can indeed elect for free agency provided the player is not returned to the 40-man roster after the season. But unless the player opts for free agency prior to the time of such election, the team retains his rights via the player's 7-year initial minor league or subsquent multi-year minor league contract, that is assuming seasons still remain.

In the case of Owings, he was signed in 2005, which would cover the 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 seasons in addition to that first year. That intial minor league contract, believe it or not, actually does not get nullified when a player is added to the 40-man roster and signs a Major League contract, but it just is overridden while the MLB UPC is valid.

Because his contract was outright assigned to the minors, the Reds will not need to tender him a contract for the upcoming season if Owings does not elect for free agency. They can keep him under one more season of his minor league contract unless they add him back to the 40-man roster, in which case they would have to tender him a new Major League deal.

Because Owings has 3 years of service, he does have the ability to become a free agent. But because he has seasons left on his minor league contract, which the Reds own after being assigned from Arizona in the Adam Dunn trade, they still hold protection rights.

What's interesting is that if he had spent all of 2007 with Arizona, instead of pitching one game in AAA, that season would not count toward his seven seasons and he'd have two additional years left on his Minor League deal instead of just one. Full years spent on an active or disabled roster for the Major Leagues do not count against that contract.

If Owings does not elect to become a free agent, he reverts back to his minor league contract, which expires after next season, and he immediately becomes eligible to be selected in this year's Rule 5 draft--which any team could take him if they're willing to give him a Major League contract and keep him active all season.

Now let's say Owings was outrighted in this scenario, but his minor league contract was expired (see Justin Lehr and Corky Miller last season). If Owings didn't opt for free agency, the Reds would have to either tender him a Major League contract or sign him to a minor league contract.

Typically, what I'm describing doesn't happen because usually when a player is outright assigned, their initial minor league contracts have expired. After that first deal, players typically work on 1-year contracts. Owings seems to be one of those rare cases though where he has years still covered on his original rookie deal, so the Reds would still be able to keep him unless he decides to go the free agency route.
Yeah, we're on the same page. I just made the assumption that Owings would elect free agency seeing as how he requested a trade.

[camisadelgolf]

Owings is not technically a free agent, though certainly he has the right to elect for free agency due to his 3+ years of service after his outright assignment (which is probably your point). He's still on his original 7-year minor league contract, giving the Reds his protection rights. Granted, he can become a free agent by election, but if he doesn't elect to do so soon then he stays under his original minor league UPC. The other issue is that Owings will be Rule 5 eligible even if he doesn't opt for free agency.

I'm fairly certain Balentien's original minor league contract is expired, so I agree that he's a free agent and can sign with any club.

EDIT: if the Reds add either one back to the roster prior to their election of free agency, this nullifies their ability to become a free agent because it will then force the Reds to tender Major League contracts for the upcoming season.
Owings is officially a free agent.

[Krusty]

Let me throw this out there and see what you think:

Reds trade Stubbs and Cordero to the Dodgers for Kemp and Broxton.

[edabbs44]

Let me throw this out there and see what you think:

Reds trade Stubbs and Cordero to the Dodgers for Kemp and Broxton.

Why would LA do this?

[RollyInRaleigh]

Let me throw this out there and see what you think:

Reds trade Stubbs and Cordero to the Dodgers for Kemp and Broxton.

Great to see you back, Krusty!:beerme:

[Brutus]

Owings is officially a free agent.

Yep, just saw that myself today. As of October 5, he "refused his minor league assignment" in order to become a free agent.

[Mario-Rijo]

The Tribe aren't likely to trade for Alonso. Royals aren't likely to trade for Phillips (Alonso, either).

Why wouldn't they?

[backbencher]

Why wouldn't they?

Indians: already traded for their 1B-of-the-future in LaPorta, plus have prospects/suspects Brown, Weglarz, Hodges, Mills and others lined up at the spot. If the Indians bring in Alonso, they are writing off almost all of that inventory (though some will go to DH/LF) -- without much indication that Alonso will outperform what they have.

Royals: have Butler, Hosmer and even Kila, any one of whom could reasonably be said to project better than Alonso (and none of which is moving off of first, unless it is to DH). Without Greinke, the Royals have no need for Phillips.

[Brutus]

Indians: already traded for their 1B-of-the-future in LaPorta, plus have prospects/suspects Brown, Weglarz, Hodges, Mills and others lined up at the spot. If the Indians bring in Alonso, they are writing off almost all of that inventory (though some will go to DH/LF) -- without much indication that Alonso will outperform what they have.

Royals: have Butler, Hosmer and even Kila, any one of whom could reasonably be said to project better than Alonso (and none of which is moving off of first, unless it is to DH). Without Greinke, the Royals have no need for Phillips.

And Robinson as well!

Plus, this is the Indians and Royals... they're not going to take a player making $11 million a year. Heck, if the Royals would consider trading their face of the franchise for making $13 million, they most definitely will not be taking on Phillips' salary.

[WVRed]

Why would LA do this?

Why would the Reds too?

Hope there is somebody better than Stubbs ready to man CF, because Kemp isn't the answer. Can't see the Dodgers moving Broxton for Cordero either. Wishful thinking.

[Reds1]

2011 Reds:


SP Arroyo
SP Wood
SP Cueto/Volquez/Bailey/Leake
SP Cueto/Volquez/Bailey/Leake
SP Cueto/Volquez/Bailey/Leake

Thoughts?


I guess no Chapman in the mix to start! I think he gets a serious look next season.

[Benihana]

I guess no Chapman in the mix to start! I think he gets a serious look next season.

I think he starts in AAA to make sure he can make the transition to starter. With 5-6 good outings down there, my guess is we'll see him in the rotation by Memorial Day.