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View Full Version : Here's a novel idea - Adam Dunn



fearofpopvol1
10-11-2010, 04:28 PM
It's no secret that the Reds need a guy who can get on base, who can mash and someone who can play LF. Enter, Adam Dunn.

He doesn't fit the mold defensively that Walt probably wants, but it's not like Gomes did either. Dunn is familiar with the organization and BCast was a big fan if you do remember. The idea of coming (back) to Cincy with a real chance to win would likely be enticing to him. If there is any knock on Dunn outside of his defense (and the fact that some hate the Ks), it would be that he's a lefty and it would probably be ideal for the Reds to have a RH batter in LF.

Still, the idea is intriguing and it's not like Dunn will command Ryan Howard money. He's likely got a few great years left in him if the Reds can sign him to a 2 or 3 year deal. The question is, can the Reds figure out a way to pay him and will another team (like the Cubs who need a 1B) pay a king's ransom to get him as they have shown they will do.

Some will claim the Reds have moved on, and maybe they have, but Dunn would represent a real chance for the Reds to contend next year beyond the NLDS. Think about it...replace Gomes in the lineup with Dunn.

Thoughts?

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 04:29 PM
No thank you. I think that book ended a few years ago.

Brutus
10-11-2010, 04:30 PM
There are much worse options, but there are better ones too.

Thanks, but no thanks for me.

Homer Bailey
10-11-2010, 04:31 PM
And here we.... go

http://fc02.deviantart.net/fs32/i/2008/234/0/9/Here_we_go_joker_ref_pic_by_sullen_skrewt.jpg

Redsfan320
10-11-2010, 04:32 PM
And here we.... go

Oh yes. This thread is gonna be FUN to watch the next... 6 months. If it's not locked within a half hour.

320

cumberlandreds
10-11-2010, 04:34 PM
The Reds and especially Reds fans need to forget about Dunn. They don't need him or should ever want him again. He's a part of the losing past and they don't need to go back there.

fearofpopvol1
10-11-2010, 04:35 PM
As a point of reference, Gomes was -0.1 WAR and Dunn was +3.9. That's significant. Now granted, Dunn did play 1B instead of LF this year. Still, at Dunn's worst in LF, he was basically what Gomes was fielding wise according to UZR. And Dunn is certainly much more valuable than Gomes is with the bat.

Basically, Dunn is absolutely an upgrade over Gomes. The money is the tricky part. If the Reds could get him on a 3 year, $24M deal, I think it would be worth pulling the trigger on. I'm not sure if Dunn would go for that or if another team would offer more, but that would certainly put the Reds in a good position.

westofyou
10-11-2010, 04:36 PM
Dunn is done as an OF, his 1b skills are at best in Thome country and he ended up DHing, in fact as much as I love AD it's over for him in Reds country, his salary cost will be targeted for up ticks around the diamond, not just LF.

This team will only except poor defense and lack of speed at a small cost, not a large cost.

It's a new era and Dunn unfortunately represents the old era the Reds are shedding. Nothing against Dunn or what his bat can bring, but he's in old girlfriend country with this fan base some hate and others love... but it's time we all forget and move forward.

fearofpopvol1
10-11-2010, 04:37 PM
The Reds and especially Reds fans need to forget about Dunn. They don't need him or should ever want him again. He's a part of the losing past and they don't need to go back there.

Harang was a big part of the losing past too. Did that affect the team this year?

GAC
10-11-2010, 04:38 PM
Dunn is done as an OF, his 1b skills are at best in Thome country and he ended up DHing, in fact as much as I love AD it's over for him in Reds country, his salary cost will be targeted for up ticks around the diamond, not just LF.

This team will only except poor defense and lack of speed at a small cost, not a large cost.

It's a new era and Dunn unfortunately represents the old era the Reds are shedding. Nothing against Dunn or what his bat can bring, but he's in old girlfriend country with this fan base some hate and others love... but it's time we all forget and move forward.

Good post. And while I agree, most of us how fond memories of old GFs. :p:

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 04:38 PM
It's no secret that the Reds need a guy who can get on base, who can mash and someone who can play LF. Enter, Adam Dunn.


By the way, for those who believe in UZR:


UZR/150

Dunn 2009 -38.9
Dunn 2008 -28.4

Gomes 2010 -19
Gomes 2009 -15.4

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 04:38 PM
As a point of reference, Gomes was -0.1 WAR and Dunn was +3.9. That's significant. Now granted, Dunn did play 1B instead of LF this year. Still, at Dunn's worst in LF, he was basically what Gomes was fielding wise according to UZR. And Dunn is certainly much more valuable than Gomes is with the bat.

Basically, Dunn is absolutely an upgrade over Gomes. The money is the tricky part. If the Reds could get him on a 3 year, $24M deal, I think it would be worth pulling the trigger on. I'm not sure if Dunn would go for that or if another team would offer more, but that would certainly put the Reds in a good position.

The bolded isn't even close to true.

LincolnparkRed
10-11-2010, 04:39 PM
Harang was a big part of the losing past too. Did that affect the team this year?

Yeah but even Washington won't play him in left. So unless you want to upset your possible MVP first basemen by moving him to LF. I say let that ship sail.

to use the ex- analogy, you broke up for a reason. Usually that reason is still valid

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 04:40 PM
Harang was a big part of the losing past too. Did that affect the team this year?

It did when he played.

kbrake
10-11-2010, 04:40 PM
Absolutely love Adam Dunn and he is my favorite player but I don't think it would be wise or practical to go down that road again. Hopefully he has a great year next season but I don't think it will or should be in Cincinnati.

Blaming Dunn for the losing is laughable and I think it has been covered enough.

_Sir_Charles_
10-11-2010, 04:42 PM
Not a chance. The Reds don't want it. Dunn doesn't want it. Dusty doesn't want it.

I know some fans do, but it's like fantasizing about that hot girl in high school you never had a shot with. Just put her out of your mind and move on with your life. You'll be happier in the end. The lusting after the impossible only makes you miserable.

fearofpopvol1
10-11-2010, 04:44 PM
By the way, for those who believe in UZR:


UZR/150

Dunn 2009 -28.4
Dunn 2008 -38.9

Gomes 2010 -19
Gomes 2009 -15.4

Way to cherrypick stats as you often times do. Let's look at other seasons instead of the last 2...

Dunn (FLD)

--------------

2001, +1.0
2002, +4.1
2003, -4.7
2004, -2.3
2005, -16.4
2006, -14.2
2007, -16.0

Sure, he had a disastrous 2008 and 2009 in the field. I think it's fair to say that part of that was playing in a new home ballpark. As he was traded midseason 2008 and played 2009 in a completely different park.

fearofpopvol1
10-11-2010, 04:45 PM
The bolded isn't even close to true.

it totally is if you know how to average out stats.

fearofpopvol1
10-11-2010, 04:45 PM
It did when he played.

yeah, due to his poor performance, which is completely different.

Brutus
10-11-2010, 04:47 PM
Way to cherrypick stats as you often times do. Let's look at other seasons instead of the last 2...

Dunn (FLD)

--------------

2001, +1.0
2002, +4.1
2003, -4.7
2004, -2.3
2005, -16.4
2006, -14.2
2007, -16.0

Sure, he had a disastrous 2008 and 2009 in the field. I think it's fair to say that part of that was playing in a new home ballpark. As he was traded midseason 2008 and played 2009 in a completely different park.

But it's also possible his defense began declining with age, and the Nationals moved him to first because they felt it was getting worse.

Like WOY said, that they moved him down the defensive spectrum and permanently to first base is probably telling.

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 04:48 PM
Way to cherrypick stats as you often times do. Let's look at other seasons instead of the last 2...

Dunn (FLD)

--------------

2001, +1.0
2002, +4.1
2003, -4.7
2004, -2.3
2005, -16.4
2006, -14.2
2007, -16.0

Sure, he had a disastrous 2008 and 2009 in the field. I think it's fair to say that part of that was playing in a new home ballpark. As he was traded midseason 2008 and played 2009 in a completely different park.

Notice any trending going on there? Do you think a large bodied player may become less effective in the field as he gets older? He's going to be 31. Things may be different than when you are 24. You can use 24 as your guide of how he may perform when he is 31-34. I'll use the most recent data and trends.

fearofpopvol1
10-11-2010, 04:49 PM
But it's also possible his defense began declining with age, and the Nationals moved him to first because they felt it was getting worse.

Like WOY said, that they moved him down the defensive spectrum and permanently to first base is probably telling.

For the record, I don't rule out that he may be declining defensively...but I don't think it's conclusive (yet) he's declined majorly and I don't think he's as bad as that stretch was of 2008 and 2009.

redsfandan
10-11-2010, 04:50 PM
RedsZone still loves to talk about Dunn. All the closed Dunn threads are proof of that.

fearofpopvol1
10-11-2010, 04:51 PM
Notice any trending going on there? Do you think a large bodied player may become less effective in the field as he gets older? He's going to be 31. Things may be different than when you are 24. You can use 24 as your guide of how he may perform when he is 31-34. I'll use the most recent data and trends.

Anything is possible, but nothing is conclusive. For the record, I choose to look at the ENTIRE picture rather than a small picture. I find it's the best way to evaluate.

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 04:52 PM
For the record, I don't rule out that he may be declining defensively...but I don't think it's conclusive (yet) and I don't think he's as bad as that stretch was of 2008 and 2009.

I'd rather not conclude that he is an absolute disaster in the field in the first year of a 3 year deal. Unless the scouts and my staff were all in agreement that those numbers are absolutely wrong, that's a scary number to think about.

Twice as bad as Gomes. Think about that.

fearofpopvol1
10-11-2010, 04:55 PM
I'd rather not conclude that he is an absolute disaster in the field in the first year of a 3 year deal. Unless the scouts and my staff were all in agreement that those numbers are absolutely wrong, that's a scary number to think about.

Twice as bad as Gomes. Think about that.

Twice as bad for 2 seasons. How is that conclusive?

And how do you know the scouts don't disagree with UZR? Do you talk to them? Also, I recall in my past arguments of yours about Gomes that you didn't buy into UZR. Why do you suddenly buy into it now?

CTA513
10-11-2010, 04:55 PM
I doubt Dunn would want to come back.

Griffey012
10-11-2010, 04:56 PM
Absolutely NOOOOOOOO! Personally I would like to imprive our ballclub significantly for next season, not basically tread water. Dunn in LF would be a defensive debacle and wou,d make Gomes look like a GG'er. And for the price he would command he would not be worth it at all. I'd rather put a hefty package of prospects together for someone who would be an upgrade offensively and defensively.

Sea Ray
10-11-2010, 04:58 PM
If we're going to spend big bucks then I'd much rather have Carl Crawford than Dunn.

fearofpopvol1
10-11-2010, 04:59 PM
If we're going to spend big bucks then I'd much rather have Carl Crawford than Dunn.

You willing to pay 5 years, $105 million?

Sea Ray
10-11-2010, 05:01 PM
You willing to pay 5 years, $105 million?

No way. You think that's what Crawford has coming?

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 05:01 PM
Twice as bad for 2 seasons. How is that conclusive?

And how do you know the scouts don't disagree with UZR? Do you talk to them? Also, I recall in my past arguments of yours about Gomes that you didn't buy into UZR. Why do you suddenly buy into it now?

I don't buy into it whole hog. I think that it is likely a flawed stat. That's why I was saying that my scouts would need to tell me that his defense didn't fall off a cliff.

And twice as bad based on UZR for the 2 most recent seasons. Averaging his numbers right now is like averaging Griffey's career and signing him to a 3 year deal. There is reason to believe that his defense has deteriorated as he has gotten older. Now verify.

bucksfan2
10-11-2010, 05:02 PM
You willing to pay 5 years, $105 million?

Im not willing to pay a DH big time money to come and attempt to play LF.

I don't quite know why Dunn's name is constantly brought up here on RZ. The ship has sailed with him. He had a nice run in Cincy but that time has come to an end.

backbencher
10-11-2010, 05:02 PM
Twice as bad for 2 seasons. How is that conclusive?


Well, you could start naming players over 6'4" whose defense got better after their age 30 years.

But let's take this in the other direction that edabbs had indicated. Let's suppose that you sign Dunn to a 3 year, $24 million deal and it turns out that he cannot play left. Twice as bad as Gomes. What's your gameplan then?

fearofpopvol1
10-11-2010, 05:03 PM
No way. You think that's what Crawford has coming?

That's the neighborhood price he's rumored to be asking for. Basically, only a few teams will be able to afford, which is why he's likely to be Bronx bound.

Brutus
10-11-2010, 05:03 PM
No way. You think that's what Crawford has coming?

I think Crawford will get that. Best defensive LF in the game right now with tremendous offensive skills. I don't see why he won't approach $20 mil a year.

fearofpopvol1
10-11-2010, 05:07 PM
I don't buy into it whole hog. I think that it is likely a flawed stat. That's why I was saying that my scouts would need to tell me that his defense didn't fall off a cliff.

And twice as bad based on UZR for the 2 most recent seasons. Averaging his numbers right now is like averaging Griffey's career and signing him to a 3 year deal. There is reason to believe that his defense has deteriorated as he has gotten older. Now verify.

Well, if it's such a flawed stat, why are you consistent? It applies to Dunn but not for Gomes? That doesn't make much sense.

Dunn is 30 years old right now. Griffey was plagued with injuries. Comparing someone that is 40 with someone is 30 is a bit different, don't you think?

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 05:11 PM
Well, if it's such a flawed stat, why are you consistent? It applies to Dunn but not for Gomes? That doesn't make much sense.

Dunn is 30 years old right now. Griffey was plagued with injuries. Comparing someone that is 40 with someone is 30 is a bit different, don't you think?

In previous discussions regarding UZR, some would speak definitively regarding the stat. Like it was gospel. I haven't said that in this thread. I added scout assessments to the mix. The reason why I didn't buy the Gomes measure was that my eyes weren't agreeing with the number earlier in the year. I do think he dropped off dramatically in the last few months, however. But that is neither here nor there.

I could easily see Dunn's defense getting worse as he gets older. Common sense for a big 6'6" dude. If the scouts agree with that assessment, how can anyone argue?

fearofpopvol1
10-11-2010, 05:11 PM
Well, you could start naming players over 6'4" whose defense got better after their age 30 years.

But let's take this in the other direction that edabbs had indicated. Let's suppose that you sign Dunn to a 3 year, $24 million deal and it turns out that he cannot play left. Twice as bad as Gomes. What's your gameplan then?

For the record, I'm not claiming his skills are "improving." I never once suggested that. What I said was that I don't believe his skills have deteriorated to the tune of his defense being twice as bad as it previously was.

Even Dunn's worst year in the field, he was still worth $5M. That's likely worst case scenario over the next few years. I don't expect he will be worse than that the next 3 years. I think at $8M a year, you're likely going to get your return on investment with a chance of having a surplus. At worst, maybe Dunn is slightly overpaid.

fearofpopvol1
10-11-2010, 05:13 PM
In previous discussions regarding UZR, some would speak definitively regarding the stat. Like it was gospel. I haven't said that in this thread. I added scout assessments to the mix. The reason why I didn't buy the Gomes measure was that my eyes weren't agreeing with the number earlier in the year. I do think he dropped off dramatically in the last few months, however. But that is neither here nor there.

I could easily see Dunn's defense getting worse as he gets older. Common sense for a big 6'6" dude. If the scouts agree with that assessment, how can anyone argue?

You haven't said it in this thread, but it would be logical for you to apply what you have said in this thread to that in other threads which you haven't. In other words, it appears you're not consistent with your logic.

edabbs44
10-11-2010, 05:19 PM
You haven't said it in this thread, but it would be logical for you to apply what you have said in this thread to that in other threads which you haven't. In other words, it appears you're not consistent with your logic.

OK. I believe UZR can be flawed due to the newness of the metric. Watching Gomes early in the year, to me, did not match up with being "the worst fielder in the game" as some have called him. Dunn's measurements could definitely be flawed, and I cannot really say one way or the other since I didn't watch him in Washington. But it is really scary to see numbers like that which are double what Gomes racks up.

If my scouts were to tell me that Dunn is that poor of a fielder, then I am believing both them and UZR. If they tell me that there is reason not to believe the measurement, I am all ears.

I think that is pretty fair and consistent with everything I have ever said. I don't think UZR is wrong across the board with every player, but I think there is ample reason to doubt it when it doesn't jive with what you are seeing.

KronoRed
10-11-2010, 05:44 PM
Harang was a big part of the losing past too. Did that affect the team this year?

So was Arroyo and Phillips for the last few years, ship these losers out ;)

People will blame some funky crap for losses, like the foolish Florida fans running around saying they lost on Saturday because they wore orange. :confused:

Dunn's a 1b now and we have one, so we don't even have a spot for him, but to say he had anything to do with the lost decade is again, just a big ax grind.

Brutus
10-11-2010, 05:58 PM
So was Arroyo and Phillips for the last few years, ship these losers out ;)

People will blame some funky crap for losses, like the foolish Florida fans running around saying they lost on Saturday because they wore orange. :confused:

Dunn's a 1b now and we have one, so we don't even have a spot for him, but to say he had anything to do with the lost decade is again, just a big ax grind.

I know I'm not personally blaming him for the lost decade, but come on, his defense had nothing to do with losses? Every single game, when Gomes makes a misplay, he gets torn to shreds for it, especially if the Reds lose. It wouldn't be prudent to dismiss Dunn from blame. Of course, there's a big difference between saying he was part of it and blaming it on him. But still, he was one of the players playing everyday... so he should get some of the blame.

Razor Shines
10-11-2010, 06:08 PM
I love Dunn, I'd love to have his bat in the lineup, but I don't think it'd be a good idea to bring him in for LF. At this point he probably is worse than Gomes, now his bat makes up for a lot of that, but not enough.

IF there was any choice Joey would want to move to LF and Dunn could play first I'd definitely do that, but that's really just a dream. As much as I think it would make the team better there's no reason to ask an MVP candidate to move positions.

RedsManRick
10-11-2010, 06:49 PM
Dunn is not a LF. He just got to play there for a while. While Dunn can certainly add value to a team, I don't think it's a good idea to pursue players who are horrible in the field.

Scrap Irony
10-11-2010, 08:54 PM
Dunn is not a LF. He just got to play there for a while. While Dunn can certainly add value to a team, I don't think it's a good idea to pursue players who are horrible in the field.

+1

(That's twice today, RMR.)

I'd love to see a guy who can absolutely mash in LF, but he has to be able to play quality D.

Redhook
10-11-2010, 09:20 PM
No.

On top of what everything else has stated, I wouldn't want the Reds best 3 hitters all being left-handed and batting 3-5 (We all know Dusty would try to break them up, but they should bat 3-5 if they're the best 3 hitters).

Slyder
10-11-2010, 09:30 PM
You willing to pay 5 years, $105 million?


No way. You think that's what Crawford has coming?

Two words.... Evil Empire. I never assume anything is out of the realm of possibility when the Yankees are involved. Though I think he probably "settles" for 5 years, 80 mil with performance bonuses to approach mid 90s.

Slyder
10-11-2010, 09:41 PM
+1

(That's twice today, RMR.)

I'd love to see a guy who can absolutely mash in LF, but he has to be able to play quality D.

How many of these types are there?

Left Field is where teams go to HIDE bats. Carlos Lee, Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Braun, Manny Ramirez, Raul Ibanez all come to mind.

I havent watched enough of the other teams to really know about anyone like Jose Tabata in Pittsburgh but of ESPN list I see Hamilton and a bunch of drek in LF that would account for a defensive guy in LF.

HokieRed
10-11-2010, 09:45 PM
I'm not worried about left handed bats. I was a guy who looked forward to having an outfield of Bruce/Hamilton/Dunn and Votto at 1b.

Ron Madden
10-12-2010, 06:54 AM
I don't think the Reds want Adam Dunn and I doubt that Dunn wants to come back to the Reds.

Griffey and Dunn shouldn't be blamed for the losing, the Pitching should take most of the blame.

GAC
10-12-2010, 08:11 AM
There are two highly coveted LFers entering FA after this year.... Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford. Werth's agent is Boras though. Crawford, who made 10M in 2010, has probably priced himself out of TB. Would love to see the Red's FO make a serious bid for Crawford, but it's a pipe dream with the Reds having several players going through the arb process and most likely going to get some nice raises.

Red Sox may be looking at one of them in the off-season..... http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/yb/150875238

Eric_the_Red
10-12-2010, 11:07 AM
There are two highly coveted LFers entering FA after this year.... Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford. Werth's agent is Boras though. Crawford, who made 10M in 2010, has probably priced himself out of TB. Would love to see the Red's FO make a serious bid for Crawford, but it's a pipe dream with the Reds having several players going through the arb process and most likely going to get some nice raises.

Red Sox may be looking at one of them in the off-season..... http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/yb/150875238

If the BoSox sign Crawford, they would probably look to deal Ellsbury. Anyone interested in him? They need a catcher, so perhaps Mesoraco would be enough?