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LoganBuck
10-12-2010, 01:24 AM
The purpose of this poll is to ascertain what Reds fans want to see done moving forward to 2010. The target of this poll is to discuss the "open" position in LF. Vote and Discuss

Brutus
10-12-2010, 01:30 AM
I answered cleanup hitter, as I think the September/postseason stretch exposed some issues if/when Scott Rolen isn't producing. I think Matt Kemp is the perfect answer for the Reds, and I think he might be had for about 75 cents on the dollar.

Homer Bailey
10-12-2010, 01:33 AM
I voted for high OBP leadoff because I think that is more realistic than a cleanup LF'er, but I'd rather have the cleanup hitter obviously.

reds44
10-12-2010, 01:34 AM
I'll take option 4 or 5.

LoganBuck
10-12-2010, 01:35 AM
I answered cleanup hitter, as I think the September/postseason stretch exposed some issues if/when Scott Rolen isn't producing. I think Matt Kemp is the perfect answer for the Reds, and I think he might be had for about 75 cents on the dollar.

I agree with this, and if I could get this done I would do it.

I voted leadoff hitter. This team hit for enough power this season, but it lacked the ability to grind out runs versus top end pitchers. This is where I value a true leadoff hitter. The Reds can swing from the ankles a little too much for my liking. Gotta be able to play some small ball in October.

VR
10-12-2010, 01:37 AM
I'd like to find a high OBP guy....but if not, Nix/Heisey works for me.

nemesis
10-12-2010, 01:38 AM
A true Leadoff hitter... Needed that all year. Votto needs a high OBP guy in front of him...

I'll take Pierre or similar for 1 year if the cash can be worked out...

Captain Hook
10-12-2010, 01:42 AM
I'll take option 4 or 5.

That's about how I feel.

I do think a cleanup hitter could have the bigger impact though.Also, LF is the only position the Reds are looking to fill that has those kind of guys available.In a perfect world the Reds get a LF that can hit cleanup and a SS that could leadoff.Of course this isn't a new development.

corkedbat
10-12-2010, 01:44 AM
I'd like to find a High OBP leadoff hitter, but in one of the middle infield spots. Tablesetters in the middle. Power on the corners.

reds44
10-12-2010, 01:45 AM
That's about how I feel.

I do think a cleanup hitter could have the bigger impact though.Also, LF is the only position the Reds are looking to fill that has those kind of guys available.In a perfect world the Reds get a LF that can hit cleanup and a SS that could leadoff.Of course this isn't a new development.
I voted leadoff hitter because I'm going to assume they'd bring better defense.

Like I said, I'd take either, though.

Brutus
10-12-2010, 01:46 AM
I agree with this, and if I could get this done I would do it.

I voted leadoff hitter. This team hit for enough power this season, but it lacked the ability to grind out runs versus top end pitchers. This is where I value a true leadoff hitter. The Reds can swing from the ankles a little too much for my liking. Gotta be able to play some small ball in October.

If the Reds could find someone like David DeJesus, I'd certainly love that too. In looking at the outside options, I feel like there are better pickings from the RH cleanup position than a leadoff, OBP guy. Carl Crawford will be out of the Reds' league, I'd imagine. That's not to say there won't be some other options that could be had in a trade, but it seems to be there are more power guys available than on-base guys.

I like, as a low-cost substitute, the idea of Matt Murton if all else fails.

LoganBuck
10-12-2010, 01:51 AM
Crazy idea, approach the Mets about working something out on Jason Bay? He is a terrible fit for them, but has hit extremely well at GABP. His contract is prohibitive but maybe the Mets would eat the majority of it to go a new direction.

Captain Hook
10-12-2010, 01:58 AM
It does seem that towards the end of the year a Gomes/Nix platoon was looking like the way the Reds would go.Something like this could work but I don't feel that going into 2011 with Gomes as the everyday man out there is going to work.

While it's kind of what I'm suggesting, I really hope the Reds don't sit on what they have in LF.I just don't want them trading one of our pitchers for someone that isn't likely to be a huge upgrade.I'm sure that what one would view as an upgrade could be debated to no end here but I personally would like a All-Star in LF if we're talking about putting a package together that includes one of our young arms.

savafan
10-12-2010, 02:16 AM
I'm divided on this. I don't expect Gomes back as a starter, though he is thought of as a leader in the clubhouse and the dugout, so he may return in a back-up role.

mth123
10-12-2010, 07:07 AM
A legit player in any role is fine, but I think the middle of the order is the core. Rolen really isn't a mid order bat anymore. Let him be the high OB guy in front of Votto in the 2 hole and get somebody to hit 4th or 5th. I think Bruce will be the best option for clean-up guy in 2011 but the 5 hole has no legit options.

RedEye
10-12-2010, 07:17 AM
This was a tough one for me. Obviously, I wouldn't mind the Reds acquiring a true cleanup or leadoff hitter to play LF. But I decided to wish instead that they sign/trade for a young SS with the same money/trade chips they would have used to get said LF. That leaves the internal option I'm not sure why everyone has suddenly soured on: Chris Heisey.

oneupper
10-12-2010, 07:33 AM
I voted cleanup guy. I think maybe Stubbs/Phillips at the top of the order could work. I certainly seemed to towards the end of the season.

But basically, a GOOD hitter would be fine.

Kemp, Willingham, Cody Ross, Markakis have all been mentioned. I think they're good options. Some cheaper than others.
Ross isn't a much better hitter than Gomes, but he hits LH really well (.924 OPS lifetime).
I doubt he wishes to be part of a platoon, though.

MartyFan
10-12-2010, 07:35 AM
Here's a question...Are Juan Francisco or Yonder Alonso any sort of consideration to move to the position? What about Chris Heisey? If so, do you think the Reds would do that next year or sign/keep other OF's to platoon them?

Obviously both Francisco and Alonso offer the promise of power and Heisey a pretty good glove...I don't know the book on Heisey as a potential clean up hitter though.

I can see Gomes or Nix coming back next year in bench roles but a platoon where they cover the spot on the field?

edabbs44
10-12-2010, 07:58 AM
I would like to see them upgrade either LF or SS and then figure out the other spot. A Gomes / someone else platoon might be the easier move to make. Plus, if you bring Jonny back as the short side of the platoon he gives you so much flexibility as a late inning defensive replacement for Stubbs or Bruce.

15fan
10-12-2010, 09:30 AM
George Foster

_Sir_Charles_
10-12-2010, 09:37 AM
George Foster

I'd be all in favor of THAT option. But I'd think his walker might hamper his defensive mobility. :D

In regards to Kemp...I've heard that he's a disruptive force in the clubhouse. That's not something we want to throw into the mix there in Cincy. If that's incorrect or we've got someone who can handle him...possibly.

And Jason Bay...I want someone who can handle the position defensively first and foremost. And then go for the best bat out of THAT group. Don't look bat first. And yes, this means Dunn is out of the equation. As is Manny.

Redsfan320
10-12-2010, 10:41 AM
A true Leadoff hitter... Needed that all year. Votto needs a high OBP guy in front of him...

I think, with the right instruction next spring, this can be Drew Stubbs in CF, which is why I said clean-up hitter.

320

Hoosier Red
10-12-2010, 10:53 AM
I'd be all in favor of THAT option. But I'd think his walker might hamper his defensive mobility. :D

In regards to Kemp...I've heard that he's a disruptive force in the clubhouse. That's not something we want to throw into the mix there in Cincy. If that's incorrect or we've got someone who can handle him...possibly.

And Jason Bay...I want someone who can handle the position defensively first and foremost. And then go for the best bat out of THAT group. Don't look bat first. And yes, this means Dunn is out of the equation. As is Manny.

One thing that I think is important to note is that Kemp may have been a disruptive force in the Dodgers' clubhouse, but that doesn't necessarily mean he'd be one in the Reds clubhouse.

1) Sometimes it helps if a player gets traded, and gets a wakeup call.
2) The Reds clubhouse is pretty stable whereas the Dodgers are a zoo. Players react to their surroundings as much as anything.

That being said, I tell Juan Francisco and Yonder Alonso to wear an outfielder's glove all winter long in case they might catch something.

RedsManRick
10-12-2010, 12:26 PM
I voted #4, OBP. It's cheaper than power, just as good from a run scoring perspective and would bring more balance to the lineup.

Slyder
10-12-2010, 12:29 PM
We need a big bopper to take pressure off of Rolen. If this year showed anything you can piece meal the rest of it if you've got a legitimate heart of the order. Rolen is getting older and is going to need more days off, the playoffs showed just how much him not at 100% hurt the offense.

OnBaseMachine
10-12-2010, 12:54 PM
Give me option #4 or 5. Either one. I mentioned Matt Kemp and Grady Sizemore in another thread. I've seen Jacoby Ellsbury's name thrown out there by someone on here a while back. If he can be had cheaply I wouldn't be opposed to that. David DeJesus is another interesting option. He's got a career .360 OBP and plays good defense. The latter two could more than likely be acquired without giving up one of our top young arms.

dfs
10-12-2010, 03:25 PM
Here's a question...Are Juan Francisco or Yonder Alonso any sort of consideration to move to the position? What about Chris Heisey? If so, do you think the Reds would do that next year or sign/keep other OF's to platoon them?

I fully expect Francisco to get 60 games at 3rd base next year.

The reds with a healthy Scott Rolen are a different ball club. Since they already extended him, spelling him 1 game out of every 4 or more in order to protect his back seems the only sensible thing to do.

It eases Francisco into the lineup and helps keep Rolen healthy. If Francisco sees another 30-40 games in left.....well, that might not be such a bad thing either.

TheNext44
10-12-2010, 04:47 PM
OBP.

This will keep Stubbs out of the leadoff spot, which I think is very important for his future development.

bucksfan2
10-12-2010, 05:13 PM
OBP.

This will keep Stubbs out of the leadoff spot, which I think is very important for his future development.

Saying you want OBP really isn't mutually exclusive. I want a guy who can hit leadoff, OBP around .360, and play solid defense. And oh yea his name is Carl Crawford and he will cost you about $15-$20M/year.

To be honest I just want someone who improves the overall ball club and isn't a butcher out there in LF. I would sacrifice a little defense if I could get an impact type bat.

Some players mentioned above would interest me but would be far from sold. Ellsbury is coming off an injury riddled season and really doesn't have any long term success to rely on. Sizemore would be a great target if you could get him healthy for an extended period of time. Luke Soctt, pass.

In order for the Reds to improve next season they need to get away from 4th OF or platoon times and get a legit starter. They will have the likes of Gomes/Heisey/Nix/Edmonds(?) to choose from to fill the 4th and 5th OF spot.

Brutus
10-12-2010, 05:16 PM
Saying you want OBP really isn't mutually exclusive. I want a guy who can hit leadoff, OBP around .360, and play solid defense. And oh yea his name is Carl Crawford and he will cost you about $15-$20M/year.


You also just described David DeJesus who makes $6 million this year. Granted he's coming off surgery, but he's supposed to be healthy going into the season.

edabbs44
10-12-2010, 06:05 PM
Well it sounds like Jonny will be back so it looks like we will be headed for a platoon.

dougdirt
10-12-2010, 06:09 PM
Well it sounds like Jonny will be back so it looks like we will be headed for a platoon.

He was here this year and still, we didn't see a platoon in the sense that would make sense. Gomes hit for a .709 OPS vs RHP this year, something he has always done, and yet got 375 PA against them.

Benihana
10-12-2010, 06:15 PM
Give me option #4 or 5. Either one. I mentioned Matt Kemp and Grady Sizemore in another thread. I've seen Jacoby Ellsbury's name thrown out there by someone on here a while back. If he can be had cheaply I wouldn't be opposed to that. David DeJesus is another interesting option. He's got a career .360 OBP and plays good defense. The latter two could more than likely be acquired without giving up one of our top young arms.

This.

edabbs44
10-12-2010, 06:40 PM
He was here this year and still, we didn't see a platoon in the sense that would make sense. Gomes hit for a .709 OPS vs RHP this year, something he has always done, and yet got 375 PA against them.

We also saw him giving way to Nix before he got hurt and they also acquired Edmonds, so they were definitely less than impressed with him down the stretch.

Scrap Irony
10-12-2010, 06:47 PM
I wish they'd find a legitimate LF masher who can also play defense well enough to not be an embarrassment.

But those guys aren't exactly easy to find nor are they all that cheap.

I'd settle for 270/360/450 bat with a plus glove.

They may be able to cobble that together with what they have, but it would involve sending Gomes to the small half of a strict platoon.

I still hold out hope that an Alonso/ Gomes platoon wouldn't be so bad defensively and might rake.

(Of course, I also still hold out hope for Paul Householder, so what do I know?)

OnBaseMachine
10-12-2010, 10:11 PM
From the Cincinnati Enquirer:


Jocketty said the Reds would "probably" pick up Gomes' option.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20101011/SPT04/10120333/1071/Next-year-s-Reds-will-look-familiar

Amazing. If the Reds go into 2011 with Jonny Gomes as the starting left fielder then the offseason will have been a failure, IMO.

Brutus
10-12-2010, 10:20 PM
From the Cincinnati Enquirer:



http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20101011/SPT04/10120333/1071/Next-year-s-Reds-will-look-familiar

Amazing. If the Reds go into 2011 with Jonny Gomes as the starting left fielder then the offseason will have been a failure, IMO.

Answering "probably" to the question of whether or not an option will be picked up for a little more than a million dollars is a pretty big leap to assuming he's thereby going to start and the Reds won't do anything to address the position in the offseason.

I'm not getting my hopes up, just in case, but let's give it a chance to play out before we get all hot and bothered by a one word response.

OnBaseMachine
10-12-2010, 10:23 PM
Answering "probably" to the question of whether or not an option will be picked up for a little more than a million dollars is a pretty big leap to assuming he's thereby going to start and the Reds won't do anything to address the position in the offseason.

I'm not getting my hopes up, just in case, but let's give it a chance to play out before we get all hot and bothered by a one word response.

This is from another article in the Cincinnati Enquirer:


The Reds' brass likes Jonny Gomes in left, in part because he'll make "only" $1.8 million next year. Despite Gomes' clubhouse effervescence, he's clearly a defensive liability, and he's never had a full season of offensive production.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20101011/SPT04/10120335/1071/Young-pitching-staff-has-Reds-players-excited

edabbs44
10-12-2010, 10:26 PM
From the Cincinnati Enquirer:



http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20101011/SPT04/10120333/1071/Next-year-s-Reds-will-look-familiar

Amazing. If the Reds go into 2011 with Jonny Gomes as the starting left fielder then the offseason will have been a failure, IMO.

If we have learned anything over the last year, it's that this franchise knows what they are doing. I think that they have earned our trust. After seeing all the gun jumping that people have done in the past 2 years just to be proven wrong time and time again, maybe its time to sit back and watch this play out.

The season has been over for less than 2 days.

Tornon
10-12-2010, 10:31 PM
Maybe we could sign Austin Kearns while we try to bring along a Heisey or a Sappelt or whoever the Reds end up tabbing as their LF for the future

Brutus
10-12-2010, 10:31 PM
This is from another article in the Cincinnati Enquirer:



http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20101011/SPT04/10120335/1071/Young-pitching-staff-has-Reds-players-excited

While that's not encouraging, it's also at risk of being posturing by the club or simply a message partially lost in translation by the author.

Jocketty has always been one to play things close to the vest, typically. While the Reds could absolutely be planning to pick up his option and start Gomes in left, they also could be misdirecting or masking their real intentions. It's only October 12. I didn't suspect we were going to be given a road map to the Reds' offseason strategy so soon. I think we'll get a better picture heading into December after the 40-man roster is initially set and signings and trades start picking up close to the winter meetings.

edabbs44
10-12-2010, 10:36 PM
This is from another article in the Cincinnati Enquirer:


The Reds' brass likes Jonny Gomes in left, in part because he'll make "only" $1.8 million next year. Despite Gomes' clubhouse effervescence, he's clearly a defensive liability, and he's never had a full season of offensive production.


http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20101011/SPT04/10120335/1071/Young-pitching-staff-has-Reds-players-excited

So I am listening to a podcast with Buster Olney today and they are talking about why TB would start James Shields in Game 2 over Matt Garza. Olney couldn't understand it and figured that this is the only plausible reason: They are going to trade a pitcher this offseason and will likely be dealing Shields. What would it do to his market value if they threw him to the back of the bullpen for the playoffs? They'd get nothing for him because everyone would know that he is not in their plans for next season.

Moral of the story? Don't take everything at face value. If teams knew that Cincy was desperate for a LF, that would hurt their position in the market.

And while we are at it, here's a thread from the archives which we may want to learn a little bit from.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=79307&highlight=payroll

SMcGavin
10-12-2010, 11:00 PM
How about Jay Bruce for 2011 cleanup hitter?

Dusty is probably going to want to go RH there though, and I am not buying Rolen repeating his 2010 numbers (or playing 120+ games). LF seems like the most obvious spot to find a guy for this role (then you could go 3-4-5-6-7 of Votto-LF-Bruce-Rolen-Stubbs).

VR
10-12-2010, 11:05 PM
How about Jay Bruce for 2011 cleanup hitter?

Dusty is probably going to want to go RH there though, and I am not buying Rolen repeating his 2010 numbers (or playing 120+ games). LF seems like the most obvious spot to find a guy for this role (then you could go 3-4-5-6-7 of Votto-LF-Bruce-Rolen-Stubbs).

I think Votto and Bruce together in the lineup vs. righties is genius. They've both proven the ability to hit lefties, thus elimnating the lefty/lefty fear.

edabbs44
10-12-2010, 11:37 PM
CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Shin-Soo Choo, the Indians' best player, is quoted in the Korea Times that he prefers to "transfer" to a team that wins more.

http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf/2010/10/korean_newspaper_claims_shin-s.html

Pretty cool that, for once, the Reds fit the bill.

The Operator
10-12-2010, 11:43 PM
I'm sorry, but if The Rays really started James Shields in Game 2 just to protect his trade value, then I would lose a lot of respect for them as an organization.

Their goal should be to advance in the postseason, not leverage a trade piece.

Homer Bailey
10-12-2010, 11:45 PM
I'm sorry, but if The Rays really started James Shields in Game 2 just to protect his trade value, then I would lose a lot of respect for them as an organization.

Their goal should be to advance in the postseason, not leverage a trade piece.

It was Buster Olney speculating. I think there is about a 1% chance that that was the main reason why Shields started.

The Operator
10-12-2010, 11:48 PM
It was Buster Olney speculating. I think there is about a 1% chance that that was the main reason why Shields started.I certainly hope that's the case. I like The Rays quite a bit, I would hope they'd be above that.

edabbs44
10-12-2010, 11:48 PM
It was Buster Olney speculating. I think there is about a 1% chance that that was the main reason why Shields started.

It was speculation, but do you see a more likely possible reason as to why he started in front of Garza?

Homer Bailey
10-12-2010, 11:49 PM
It was speculation, but do you see a more likely possible reason as to why he started in front of Garza?

For one, weren't his numbers much better at home?

edabbs44
10-12-2010, 11:54 PM
For one, weren't his numbers much better at home?

Looks like it. But so were Garza's.

edabbs44
10-12-2010, 11:57 PM
As an aside, he also was talking about guys attitudes today and what their priorities are and he told a funny story that an agent told him about the guy's client, a big name young player in the league today.

The agent's phone starts ringing at like 5 in the morning and he sees on the caller ID that it is his client. So he basically freaks because he thinks someone got arrested, or died, or something just bad happened. So he answers the phone and it is the player. The agent is like "What's wrong?" And this kid goes on and on telling him that Nike gave his teammate more and better gear and how he deserves better stuff than that guy.

Again, so much that goes on that we have no idea that happens.

corkedbat
10-13-2010, 01:01 AM
I think Votto and Bruce together in the lineup vs. righties is genius. They've both proven the ability to hit lefties, thus elimnating the lefty/lefty fear.

Even with Votto and Bruce in the three and four holes, I think you need a third masher back to back. I think, because of his health/durability concerns, I would feel much better if he was counted on as the 4th option in the meat of the order.

Even if they get another bat, I wouldn't mind having him around as a right-handed bat off the bench at that price. I'be felt all along that that would be the role he would flourish in (not so sure how he would feel after starting for two years though). If Gomes is brought back with LF in mind, I'd hope they went after a lefty like Luke Scott to split time.

I love Jonny, but I just think that expecting solid year-long production from him in the heart of the order with Rolen's precarious situation would seem like a great way to insure there is no repeat in 2K11. I think they have to be agreesive and addrees it and I thnk they will.

blumj
10-13-2010, 03:43 AM
Looks like it. But so were Garza's.
Yeah, but Shields is the HR fairy, no way you start him in Texas instead of Tampa, if you've already decided they're both starting games in that series. You could make a good case they should have left Shields out of their rotation, but I don't think there's any way Maddon does that.

LoganBuck
10-13-2010, 08:43 AM
68 people have voted on this thread and not one, wants Gomes back in the same role.

Somehow I think the results at the GABP offices would be different.

edabbs44
10-13-2010, 09:22 AM
68 people have voted on this thread and not one, wants Gomes back in the same role.

Somehow I think the results at the GABP offices would be different.

If they lived in the hypothetical like we do, they might be the same. I think the difference between us and them a lot of times is that we expect them to be able to grab a "high obp, plus defense" LFer off the shelf and be able to pay in Maloneys and Franciscos. That isn't reality and these moves aren't done in a vacuum.

If they feel comfortable in keeping Gomes because it allows them to do other things, then we should look at the offseason as a whole and not on a move by move basis. Because all of these moves are linked due to money and personnel concerns. Returning with Gomes does not make an offseason a failure.

bucksfan2
10-13-2010, 09:39 AM
Gomes has value at $1.8M next season. That is why his option is being picked up. It isn't because they are going to hand him the starting job out in LF. Heck if Cabrera's option were for $1.8M I would assume they would pick it up as well. Its all about building a team based around the best 25 men you can. IMO if Gomes is your 25th player you have a pretty solid ball club.

oneupper
10-13-2010, 10:24 AM
Gomes hit lefties well again this year. Part of the problem of the position's performance was Nix's injuries and the fact that the NL central doesn't have a lot of lefty starters.

If we can't get the LFer we want, how about a nice other half of a real platoon to go with Gomes?. I could live with Gomes getting 300 PA, if 200 are against lefties.

Homer Bailey
10-13-2010, 10:58 AM
I would love to have Gomes back in a spot start/bench role next year. Problem is, you can't put flawed players like Gomes on a roster and expect Dusty to use him properly.

Far East
10-13-2010, 11:13 AM
The Tigers released the injured 36 year old Magglio Ordonez, whose 2010 line in just 323 AB was .303/.378/.474, including 12 HR (1 for about each 27 AB).

Is he too injured, too old, too much like Gomes in the field?

Homer Bailey
10-13-2010, 11:18 AM
The Tigers released the injured 36 year old Magglio Ordonez, whose 2010 line in just 323 AB was .303/.378/.474, including 12 HR (1 for about each 27 AB).

Is he too injured, too old, too much like Gomes in the field?

It appears as if he's a below average fielder, and he's never played left in his career. I don't think he'd be a terrible option though for whatever reason.

OesterPoster
10-13-2010, 11:20 AM
Ordonez wouldn't be horrible, but I think he'll be too expensive. I think his agent is Boras? They'll trick somebody into giving him a multi-year deal, or he'll sign a big one-year deal with Detroit to DH.

edabbs44
10-13-2010, 11:21 AM
I would love to have Gomes back in a spot start/bench role next year. Problem is, you can't put flawed players like Gomes on a roster and expect Dusty to use him properly.

That will be Walt's job, not Dusty's. I would guarantee that, if provided a legitimat option, Dusty would play him. Remember, last year's flavor was Dickerson. The gold glover who gets on base with pop. Then he put up a historically bad April and got hurt. Then Heisey was everyone's fav after he beat up Pitt a few times. He got a chance and did nothing with it. Then it was Nix, who many wanted released just a month or two earlier. He got hurt. Then Jocketty traded for Edmonds, who made Dickerson loom like Gehrig.

There were a few times that it looked like Jonny was going to have his role reduced but no one took advantage for a few reasons. If Walt can get someone to help I am sure he will and I am sure that Dusty would play him. But for all the screaming and yelling done this year, did Dusty really have a better choice?

Homer Bailey
10-13-2010, 11:30 AM
That will be Walt's job, not Dusty's. I would guarantee that, if provided a legitimat option, Dusty would play him. Remember, last year's flavor was Dickerson. The gold glover who gets on base with pop. Then he put up a historically bad April and got hurt. Then Heisey was everyone's fav after he beat up Pitt a few times. He got a chance and did nothing with it. Then it was Nix, who many wanted released just a month or two earlier. He got hurt. Then Jocketty traded for Edmonds, who made Dickerson loom like Gehrig.

There were a few times that it looked like Jonny was going to have his role reduced but no one took advantage for a few reasons. If Walt can get someone to help I am sure he will and I am sure that Dusty would play him. But for all the screaming and yelling done this year, did Dusty really have a better choice?

No, the LF issue this year was entirely on Walt. Fair criticism considering how good the rest of the roster was? Probably not. But where there is a weakness, it should be addressed at some point. Hopefully this year changes things.

However, once Gomes' bat went south, and it was pretty clear it wasn't coming back, why not go with the better defensive option in Heisey? I'm not a Heisey fan by any means, but at least he could have provided some defense out there.

edabbs44
10-13-2010, 11:50 AM
No, the LF issue this year was entirely on Walt. Fair criticism considering how good the rest of the roster was? Probably not. But where there is a weakness, it should be addressed at some point. Hopefully this year changes things.

However, once Gomes' bat went south, and it was pretty clear it wasn't coming back, why not go with the better defensive option in Heisey? I'm not a Heisey fan by any means, but at least he could have provided some defense out there.

I think because Heisey became a huge liability at the plate dowen the stretch, even more so than Gomes was in the field. Gomes' bat went south, but he still out produced Heisey at the oplate by a wide margin.

Chris saw his most PAs of the season in Sept/Oct and provided us with a .234/.258/.359 line. 1 HR, 7 RBI and a 21-1 BB-K ratio in 67 PAs. I would imagine that Heisey could have stolen that job if he produced and he didn't.

15fan
10-13-2010, 02:34 PM
The more I think about it, the more I've decided that unless a screamer of a deal falls into Jocketty's lap this offseason, standing pat in LF this off-season is the way to go.

It's generally a pricey proposition to buy in the off-season. 30 teams are trying to renew season tickets and convince their fan bases that next year's team will contend. Salary dump trades are a little tougher to find. Few teams want to give the illusion that they are throwing in the towel before pitchers & catchers report. Sign a big name FA and you have to win a bidding war, plus forfeit a pick in the subsequent draft.

Instead, I say hold things in LF as/is and instead look to find that impact LF bat at the ASB / trade deadline next season. That's when teams are out of the race, looking to dump salary, and begin retooling for the next season. Sellers are more motivated. There's an actual deadline that pushes sellers to consumate a deal and sell. No such deadline in the off-season. Plus, there are only a handful of teams who are looking to buy in late July. Less competition from other buyers.

You also get the benefit of paying only about 1/3 of the acquired player's salary. This is not insignificant if you are a small market club like the Reds.

During the off-season, I'd rather see Walt doing the legwork to address longer term issues. Namely, a SS. The Reds, and I can't believe I'm even typing this, actually have some depth in starting pitching. A good glove and bat MI is one of the few times you should deal a suprlus of pitching. If there is a potential to deal a Volquez/Cueto/Wood/Leake/Bailey + for a glove/bat SS like Hanley Ramirez (or similar), the off-season is the time to make that kind of deal.

Matt700wlw
10-13-2010, 04:55 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/10/free-agent-stock-watch-carl-crawford.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

sivman17
10-13-2010, 05:05 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/10/free-agent-stock-watch-carl-crawford.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

I'm not sure if anyone is worth a $100 million dollar contract, especially for a small market team like the Reds.

We fans can dream of getting Crawford, but it's never going to happen, unless we want to salute Bruce and Votto goodbye.

Brutus
10-13-2010, 05:09 PM
I'm not sure if anyone is worth a $100 million dollar contract, especially for a small market team like the Reds.

We fans can dream of getting Crawford, but it's never going to happen, unless we want to salute Bruce and Votto goodbye.

I'd love to be saddled with $15 mil per season for Carl Crawford right now rather than the $12 million they're paying Francisco Cordero.

edabbs44
10-13-2010, 05:11 PM
I'd love to be saddled with $15 mil per season for Carl Crawford right now rather than the $12 million they're paying Francisco Cordero.

$15MM ain't happening. That sounds like the cover charge.

Brutus
10-13-2010, 05:12 PM
$15MM ain't happening. That sounds like the cover charge.

Why isn't it happening? The dollar amounts seem to be slightly suppressed the last year or so around baseball. That actually seems like a figure that will wind up being the going rate.

I'm not saying $20 million or more is out of the question, but I think 15 is very possible.

Homer Bailey
10-13-2010, 05:26 PM
Why isn't it happening? The dollar amounts seem to be slightly suppressed the last year or so around baseball. That actually seems like a figure that will wind up being the going rate.

I'm not saying $20 million or more is out of the question, but I think 15 is very possible.

I've read it's looking something like a 7 year/$126M deal for Crawford.

KronoRed
10-13-2010, 05:45 PM
I've read it's looking something like a 7 year/$126M deal for Crawford.

He'll get it, and perhaps more, teams love the speed guys.

edabbs44
10-13-2010, 05:48 PM
He'll get it, and perhaps more, teams love the speed guys.

And when the main suitors are non-playoff making Boston and LAA, I'm sure the money will be flowing.

Werth may be the biggest beneficiary of this one.

oneupper
10-13-2010, 08:45 PM
I've read it's looking something like a 7 year/$126M deal for Crawford.

Sounds like the Alex Rios deal. A lot of love for a guy with a career .781 OPS.

The Operator
10-13-2010, 08:53 PM
I've read it's looking something like a 7 year/$126M deal for Crawford.Without looking at his stats, I'm going to say he is absolutely not worth that kind of money.

A deal like that could kill a team if his wheels start to go.

Homer Bailey
10-13-2010, 09:16 PM
Without looking at his stats, I'm going to say he is absolutely not worth that kind of money.

A deal like that could kill a team if his wheels start to go.

I agree the deal would be assuming his legs stay the way they are over the course of the contract, which is no guarantee, but I heard Buster Olney say that you'd be hard-pressed to find a guy with as strong of a work ethic in the major leagues as Carl Crawford has. I actually think he is worth every penny of that contract for at least the first 5 years. Age 34-35 seasons may see some deterioration.


Sounds like the Alex Rios deal. A lot of love for a guy with a career .781 OPS.

Carl Crawford is one of my favorite players, and Alex Rios is one of my least favorite players, so I have a hard time with this comparison. That career OPS is weighed down heavily by almost 900 PA's below the age of 22 in which he put up a wOBA of .288 and .305. His last 7 years wOBA:

2004: .344
2005: .353
2006: .368
2007: .365
2008: .319
2009: .367
2010: .378

Add in his insane defensive numbers in left field, and you have an extremely valuable player (Almost a 7 win player this year).

Mario-Rijo
10-13-2010, 09:25 PM
I wonder if Elijah Dukes is ready to behave and get to work? Could we now be that team who can find one bad guy a season and turn his fortunes around?

jojo
10-13-2010, 09:36 PM
If the Reds signed Carl Crawford, I'd give up chocolate, jalapeno poppers, and diet coke.

corkedbat
10-14-2010, 02:45 AM
The more I think about it, the more I've decided that unless a screamer of a deal falls into Jocketty's lap this offseason, standing pat in LF this off-season is the way to go.



I think there's a very good chance this happens. I'm afraid that's a way to to possibly find yourself find yourself in 3rd place come Aug. 1, fighting to keep yourself out of 4th.

I hope I'm wrong and Rolen comes out playing like a 25-year old and keeps it up through the end of the world series. I hope Jonny Gomes can come back and play the whole season like he did before labor day this year. That's me hopin' though.

If I'm Walt & BCast, I'm not just hopin'. They got there this year(a year ahead of schedule), that's great. I don't think they want to give up any ground and will make moves to build on that success (within reason).

There's a lot of young talent at the major league level and on the way, but there' three spots that think can be improved where the farm system isn't ready to step up just yet.

3. A middle infielder who can hit in the top two of the order with decent OBP abilities and solid D. It woulld be great to add a top young SS (Drew) who can hit leadoff, but I've got a feeling that Walt will be content to re-up Cabrerra or go with Cozart/Janish. My guess is the lineup is headed again bu some combination of Stubbs, Cabrerra, Phillips and Cozart. Making a deal for someone like Brigniac - a MI with a LH bat.

2. A TOR starter. There's no doubt it should be the number one priority, but there several reason's that it will be delayed at least, as far as the offseaon goes

-everyone thinks they have a shot to build and improve going into ST and aren't going to deal a TOR

- the price in talent and the competition is much greater

- I think the rotation, as is, can do a pretty fine job in the regular season.

I think they'd be best served by starting the season with the current rotation. There are always top starters available come the deadline. Can I say who? No, but I wouldn't have said Cliff Lee would be one at this time either. Wait until the dealine, they wil cost less, take less talent to acquire and you'll have half a season to polish up some of your younger guys as trading chips. An incentive-laden deal for Brandon Webb is the only starter I possibly see them adding before ST.

1. a LFer to hit fourth or fifth. This team cannot afford to stand pat here IMO. Barring a MAJOR shocker, Crawford and Werrth are not in the picture. I think there are several options that can upgrade the middle of the order. I just have a feeling that this is where Kocketty strikes. I will be hugely diappointed if they don't add a LH bat who is solid against rightys and plays decent D to platoon with Gomes.

bucksfan2
10-14-2010, 09:14 AM
If the Reds signed Carl Crawford, I'd give up chocolate, jalapeno poppers, and diet coke.

Crawford would make this team much better but the reality is, its not going to happen. I can dream and wish, but Crawford will be playing for Boston or LA next season.

edabbs44
10-15-2010, 11:30 AM
Fay did a piece on the LF situation yesterday. Everyone take a deep breath.


The team will almost certainly exercise Gomes’ $1.8 million option. I think they can live with him as the main guy at the start of 2011 and hope that Chris Heisey or Todd Frazier develops enough to take over at some point in ’11 or ’12.

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/10/14/the-left-field-question/

RedsManRick
10-15-2010, 11:54 AM
I've learned 2 things about Jocketty in his tenure:
1) He doesn't lie. When he does say something, it's true.
2) He's loathe to reveal his hand because he likes to keep his options open and not let outside influences come in to play.

I certainly hope Gomes isn't the plan for LF next year. Even if Jocketty doesn't bring in anybody else, Gomes isn't the best option. At least Nix and Heisey play plus defense.

That said, until and unless Gomes is under contract, I wouldn't get too caught up in the speculation and supposition. Last year, Gomes was brought back only because Jocketty couldn't find anything better over the winter. Coming off a worse year and with clear, reasonable options in house, why would Jocketty lock himself in to Gomes right away? Is somebody else going to swoop in and give him more than $2M? If so, is that really a loss?

If I had to guess, I would say that Jocketty does not pick his option. But I don't think that would indicate whether or not Gomes comes back. I guess I wouldn't be surprised either way.

edabbs44
10-15-2010, 12:06 PM
I've learned 2 things about Jocketty in his tenure:
1) He doesn't lie. When he does say something, it's true.2) He's loathe to reveal his hand because he likes to keep his options open and not let outside influences come in to play.

I certainly hope Gomes isn't the plan for LF next year. Even if Jocketty doesn't bring in anybody else, Gomes isn't the best option. At least Nix and Heisey play plus defense.

That said, until and unless Gomes is under contract, I wouldn't get too caught up in the speculation and supposition. Last year, Gomes was brought back only because Jocketty couldn't find anything better over the winter. Coming off a worse year and with clear, reasonable options in house, why would Jocketty lock himself in to Gomes right away? Is somebody else going to swoop in and give him more than $2M? If so, is that really a loss?

If I had to guess, I would say that Jocketty does not pick his option. But I don't think that would indicate whether or not Gomes comes back. I guess I wouldn't be surprised either way.

I think the approach is valid and agree for the most part, but I also think that you kind of contradicted yourself. Walt is on record as saying that they will probably be picking up his option.

The thing I don't agree with is that Nix and Heisey are definitely better options. I think that there is a better chance of seeing someone come in from the outside than seeing one of these guys be handed the starting spot.

I think I'd rather go into the season with Gomes as the starter and Heisey as your 4/5 OFer than Heisey as your starter and ? as your backup. Because that backup is going to makes Gomes look stupendous in comparison.

bucksfan2
10-15-2010, 12:07 PM
I've learned 2 things about Jocketty in his tenure:
1) He doesn't lie. When he does say something, it's true.
2) He's loathe to reveal his hand because he likes to keep his options open and not let outside influences come in to play.

I certainly hope Gomes isn't the plan for LF next year. Even if Jocketty doesn't bring in anybody else, Gomes isn't the best option. At least Nix and Heisey play plus defense.

That said, until and unless Gomes is under contract, I wouldn't get too caught up in the speculation and supposition. Last year, Gomes was brought back only because Jocketty couldn't find anything better over the winter. Coming off a worse year and with clear, reasonable options in house, why would Jocketty lock himself in to Gomes right away? Is somebody else going to swoop in and give him more than $2M? If so, is that really a loss?

If I had to guess, I would say that Jocketty does not pick his option. But I don't think that would indicate whether or not Gomes comes back. I guess I wouldn't be surprised either way.

Better options in house? Heisey outright stunk down the stretch of the season. He was exposed and faded as the season progressed. Sure he can catch the ball but he had trouble hitting the ball this past season. Nix is a 5th OF type who has shown the propensity to get banged up. He is a nice player to have on the roster and a good PH option, but I don't want to see him get 50% of the starts out in LF.

Gomes will be back next season. It makes too much sense to pick up that cheap option. Its all about building a roster with the best 25 men possible. Having Gomes bat off the bench makes a lot of sense to me. If it comes down to a 5th OF then I want Gomes over Nix.

Alonso needs to be moved. He (or Joey which is doubtful) needs to be moved to LF or Alonso needs to be traded. The two positions that are of need right now are SS and LF. I fully believe that Walt will address the LF position this off season via trade. And I also believe Gomes option will be picked up and Nix will be signed to a minor league contract.

lollipopcurve
10-15-2010, 12:20 PM
Fay did a piece on the LF situation yesterday. Everyone take a deep breath.

Quote:
The team will almost certainly exercise Gomes’ $1.8 million option. I think they can live with him as the main guy at the start of 2011 and hope that Chris Heisey or Todd Frazier develops enough to take over at some point in ’11 or ’12.

My guess is that the FO and ownership are far less timid when considering what changes are needed heading into 2010. From what I've read so far, Fay seems to think they'll just try a do-over in 2011. Maybe he's afraid of offending any players, I don't know, but it suggests to me Fay has no real forward-thinking perspective on the team, at least that he's willing to write.

edabbs44
10-15-2010, 12:29 PM
My guess is that the FO and ownership are far less timid when considering what changes are needed heading into 2010. From what I've read so far, Fay seems to think they'll just try a do-over in 2011. Maybe he's afraid of offending any players, I don't know, but it suggests to me Fay has no real forward-thinking perspective on the team, at least that he's willing to write.

But Fay is reporting on what he thinks they will do, not what he thinks they should do.

Homer Bailey
10-15-2010, 12:43 PM
When a writer talks about RBI's and runs scored for a player, do you think that writer actually thinks those are skills? Or are they just appealing to the casual fan?

I'm asking this question in all seriousness. The disconnect between the way baseball is portrayed vs. actual value is absolutely mind boggling to me.

lollipopcurve
10-15-2010, 12:47 PM
But Fay is reporting on what he thinks they will do, not what he thinks they should do.

Yeah, I know. I think he's either misjudging their intention to be a really good team or he's not willing to write about them possibly wanting to replace guys currently on the roster (that kind of stuff might rankle those players, and Fay may not be willing to risk that). Who knows.

Personally, I'd be stunned if Jocketty left it at "we like our team" and did nothing of real consequence to build on the progress they've made. They've got some real trade chips, starting with starting pitching, with which to improve the major league roster, IMO.

edabbs44
10-15-2010, 12:48 PM
When a writer talks about RBI's and runs scored for a player, do you think that writer actually thinks those are skills? Or are they just appealing to the casual fan?

I'm asking this question in all seriousness. The disconnect between the way baseball is portrayed vs. actual value is absolutely mind boggling to me.

I think there are three reasons:

1) Appeal to the casual fan
2) Easy to understand
3) Here's the controversial one...those stats aren't as useless as some claim. Sure they can be flawed in certain instances, but they aren't flawed in all instances.

edabbs44
10-15-2010, 12:52 PM
Yeah, I know. I think he's either misjudging their intention to be a really good team or he's not willing to write about them possibly wanting to replace guys currently on the roster (that kind of stuff might rankle those players, and Fay may not be willing to risk that). Who knows.

Personally, I'd be stunned if Jocketty left it at "we like our team" and did nothing of real consequence to build on the progress they've made. They've got some real trade chips, starting with starting pitching, with which to improve the major league roster, IMO.

I agree, but there is one issue. He has to decide on Gomes within 2 weeks of the WS. Unless he can swing a deal for a LFer before then he might not want to risk losing him. There may be a market for him that exists and if they don't exercise, he may not want to be left with Heisey/Nix if it ends up that he can't swing a deal.

I can see him exercising and saying all the right things while still looking to upgrade or find a platoon partner. Worst case is that he has a $1.8MM pinch hitter 4/5th OFer who hits lefties very well and who appears to be positive in the clubhouse. That's not a bad thing.

lollipopcurve
10-15-2010, 12:54 PM
I agree, but there is one issue. He has to decide on Gomes within 2 weeks of the WS. Unless he can swing a deal for a LFer before then he might not want to risk losing him. There may be a market for him that exists and if they don't exercise, he may not want to be left with Heisey/Nix if it ends up that he can't swing a deal.

I can see him exercising and saying all the right things while still looking to upgrade or find a platoon partner. Worst case is that he has a $1.8MM pinch hitter 4/5th OFer who hits lefties very well and who appears to be positive in the clubhouse. That's not a bad thing.

Agreed. Having Gomes in the fold gives the team protection in any trade talks for a LF.

RedsManRick
10-16-2010, 01:42 PM
THose of you who think Gomes is better than Heisey and Nix, are you guys in the "LF defense is irrelevant camp? Or do you think that Gomes is so far and away the best hitter of the bunch such that it outweighs the clear and significant defensive differences?

Gomes had a .758 OPS last year. Heisey was at .757. Nix was at .801.

For as much as Heisey struggled in the 2nd half, so did Gomes -- and he had the benefit of playing nearly every day. I just can't believe how willing people are to so minimize the impact of his horrible defense and to act as if he's some great slugger. I know defensive metrics aren't up to the level of offensive metrics. I just don't get how willing people are to act like defense is such a tiny part of a position players value -- especially after the mistakes Gomes made down the stretch defensively which cost us games.

Hesiey and Nix are no great shakes, but at least they provide positive value -- even when if they struggle at the plate. Gomes goes through long stretches of actively hurting the team.

There is absolutely no reason a fear of losing Jonny Gomes should drive the decision to commit for him for 2011. Sacrificing flexibility for the sake of eminently replaceable talent is one of the hallmarks of mediocre organizations.

edabbs44
10-16-2010, 02:57 PM
THose of you who think Gomes is better than Heisey and Nix, are you guys in the "LF defense is irrelevant camp? Or do you think that Gomes is so far and away the best hitter of the bunch such that it outweighs the clear and significant defensive differences?

I'm in the "I don't want to go into next year with Heisey as my LFer with no safety net" camp. When you are dealing with guys like these, I'd rather have more options than less and decide later. I'm not sure that Gomes would outproduce those guys next season, but that goes the other way as well. I think I'd rather have Gomes and Heisey with the option of using one or the other as a reserve than go in with Heisey and, for example Dorn, and face the prospect of both of them bottoming out. For as "bad" as Gomes was this season, he still had a fairly average offensive season. This may have been his floor. When we are talking about guys like Dorn and Heisey who's floors are undetermined, what happens if these guy pull a Dickerson and completely crap the bed in April/May?



Gomes had a .758 OPS last year. Heisey was at .757. Nix was at .801.

Gomes had a .879 OPS in 2009. I'm not sure that we should only be using 2010 as our reference.


For as much as Heisey struggled in the 2nd half, so did Gomes -- and he had the benefit of playing nearly every day. I just can't believe how willing people are to so minimize the impact of his horrible defense and to act as if he's some great slugger. I know defensive metrics aren't up to the level of offensive metrics. I just don't get how willing people are to act like defense is such a tiny part of a position players value -- especially after the mistakes Gomes made down the stretch defensively which cost us games.

I'm not sure that anyone is really minimizing defensive value. Speaking for myself, I think that the translation into runs is flawed. I do get that Gomes struggled in the field down the stretch, but I don't think that he was that much of an issue for most of the season.

Before the STL series, I get that there were probably a ball or two that fell in that maybe someone else would have had. But I wonder if the STL series kicked off kind of like a self-fulfilling prophecy, because those miscues we saw down the stretch were not really representative of the rest of his year. If his glove in 2011 is like it was down the stretch in 2010, I'm on board with other options. But if someone were to tell me that he would play defense the way he did before he collapsed down the stretch, I'd feel more comfortable.



Hesiey and Nix are no great shakes, but at least they provide positive value -- even when if they struggle at the plate. Gomes goes through long stretches of actively hurting the team.

Nix has 3 months in 2009-2010 where he was sub-.600. Bruce had 2. Phillips had one with another pretty close. Hanigan? 2. Stubbs had one, with another one on the edge. Ramon had one as well.

Gomes has none with only 2 under .700.

I'm not saying that the guy doesn't slump or that what you are saying is wrong, but as you can see he is hardly the only one who will go through a rough patch here or there. I think your statement seems more accurate when half of Redszone jumps on anything the guy does.


There is absolutely no reason a fear of losing Jonny Gomes should drive the decision to commit for him for 2011. Sacrificing flexibility for the sake of eminently replaceable talent is one of the hallmarks of mediocre organizations.

Walt Jocketty is hardly mediocre. And if he exercises Gomes' option, I would back that decision anytime.

This is eerily similar to the Dickerson/Gomes discussion from last year. That was a fun one.

redsfandan
10-16-2010, 03:07 PM
Heisey was a rookie this year that could, and should, improve offensively with experience. To me it's more a matter of how much he'll improve.

Gomes is a veteran player that does have some positives (hitting vs lefties and his positive clubhouse presence) but he is what he is. I liked Gomes alot when he was a cheap pickup that could be used in a platoon. And I liked his '09 season alot. But, the Reds gave him 511 abs this season when he shouldn't be a full-time player and now he's going to cost more if the option is picked up. And I just question whether he's worth it at that price when the dh isn't an option. I wouldn't pick up the option. It's possible that he'll be available in February again anyway but I think the Reds can use the extra money in better ways.

mth123
10-16-2010, 03:22 PM
THose of you who think Gomes is better than Heisey and Nix, are you guys in the "LF defense is irrelevant camp? Or do you think that Gomes is so far and away the best hitter of the bunch such that it outweighs the clear and significant defensive differences?

Gomes had a .758 OPS last year. Heisey was at .757. Nix was at .801.

For as much as Heisey struggled in the 2nd half, so did Gomes -- and he had the benefit of playing nearly every day. I just can't believe how willing people are to so minimize the impact of his horrible defense and to act as if he's some great slugger. I know defensive metrics aren't up to the level of offensive metrics. I just don't get how willing people are to act like defense is such a tiny part of a position players value -- especially after the mistakes Gomes made down the stretch defensively which cost us games.

Hesiey and Nix are no great shakes, but at least they provide positive value -- even when if they struggle at the plate. Gomes goes through long stretches of actively hurting the team.

There is absolutely no reason a fear of losing Jonny Gomes should drive the decision to commit for him for 2011. Sacrificing flexibility for the sake of eminently replaceable talent is one of the hallmarks of mediocre organizations.

You present this like its a black and white issue. The issue has never been about LF defense being irrelevant. The issue is about choosing where to give up defense in order to add offense. Building a team isn't something that is done in a vacuum and getting players who fit together is as important as the individual contributions. All-offense-first teams don't work (as proven by the '05 Reds) and all defense teams don't work either. The question for me has always been about picking the spots where you compromise. I'd rather have a defense first guy like Janish at SS coupled with poor defending slugger in LF than have to choose the other way. Weak bats like Chris Dickerson in LF may help the run prevention in the "comparison to other LF" vacuum, but they leave you at a disadvantage to other teams on offense who have the likes of ManRam, Braun, Holliday, Gonzalez, Kemp, Ibanez, Soriano, Lee and a host of others in the line-up. The only way to make up for it is to compromise on defense at some other spot. Personally I'd rather have a defensively challenged slugger in LF if it allows me to have top notch defense at places more important on the defensive spectrum. Sticking a Jeff Keppinger at SS because you aren't getting enough production on the corners hurts the run prevention more than having a clumsy slugger out there who allows the team to play Janish instead.

In the case of Gomes, his problem is simply not enough offense. His defense isn't all that pretty, but I wouldn't mind if he was providing a .900+ OPS out there. Switching to Heisey may be a relatively better move, but it would leave the Reds well below average in LF and they would be looking for offense at places where the substitution from the defense first guy may do more damage (which actually isn't improved by Gomes pedestrian production either IMO).

RedsManRick
10-16-2010, 03:58 PM
You present this like its a black and white issue. The issue has never been about LF defense being irrelevant. The issue is about choosing where to give up defense in order to add offense.
In the case of Gomes, his problem is simply not enough offense. His defense isn't all that pretty, but I wouldn't mind if he was providing a .900+ OPS out there. Switching to Heisey may be a relatively better move, but it would leave the Reds well below average in LF and they would be looking for offense at places where the substitution from the defense first guy may do more damage (which actually isn't improved by Gomes pedestrian production either IMO).

I can agree with you on this mth. His defense, if you ask me, is basically on the borderline of acceptability. If he was hitting .280/.340/.560, I wouldn't have a problem with it. But he's a career .801 OPS hitter. I'm grateful he had a nice 2009 against RHP. But that's not who is he is. He's a platoon guy who had a career year in 2009. Given much more opportunity against them in 2010, he performed back at his career levels against them.

If you just want a platoon RH bat who can play a LF that is only sometimes embarrasing, bring him back. But there's simply zero justification for giving him a full time gig and I see no reason to commit a 25 man roster spot to the guy in November. There's just no reason for it.

As for the issue of being worried about not having depth behind Heisey or Nix, guys like Gomes aren't exactly hard to find. Heck, he had a much better year last year and he was still available for us to resign in the spring. Why would he be in greater demand after a worse season -- because he got more PA and accrued better counting stats? How many teams are desperate for a righty bat who crushes lefties, struggles versus righties and who can play passable defense on a good day? It's not that hard to find a guy like Jose Guillen, Ben Fransisco, Xavier Nady, Matt Diaz, Kevin Mench, Wladimir Balentien. What ever would we do if Gomes left!? How could we possibly replace him?

Gomes is eminently replaceable. And that's really my point. If in 5 months, we haven't found anything better, fine. I'll take Gomes over Luis Terrero. But I'd rather just have Danny Dorn. And if Gomes does go somewhere else, we're not going to have much trouble finding somebody who can give us the same production for under $2M. Sign Gomes now, and you've basically just committed to below average LF production yet again. I don't see the argument.

jojo
10-16-2010, 04:11 PM
I'm not sure that anyone is really minimizing defensive value. Speaking for myself, I think that the translation into runs is flawed. I do get that Gomes struggled in the field down the stretch, but I don't think that he was that much of an issue for most of the season.

Before the STL series, I get that there were probably a ball or two that fell in that maybe someone else would have had. But I wonder if the STL series kicked off kind of like a self-fulfilling prophecy, because those miscues we saw down the stretch were not really representative of the rest of his year. If his glove in 2011 is like it was down the stretch in 2010, I'm on board with other options. But if someone were to tell me that he would play defense the way he did before he collapsed down the stretch, I'd feel more comfortable.

I'm not sure how anyone could've watched Gomes all season and not reached the conclusion that his defense is a serious liability and he was steady freddy in this regard from April.

blumj
10-16-2010, 04:19 PM
You know, I almost can't believe I'm suggesting it, but maybe the Reds should try to sign Bill Hall. He's probably acceptable defensively in LF, and also maybe at 3B, and I think he'd be reasonably similar to Gomes offensively.

VR
10-16-2010, 04:20 PM
Gomes in left reminds me of Griffey in right. Hard to find stats that articulate the difference.......but having Bruce in right tells us all we need to know about how tragic Gomes is in left. And the impact it has on the pitching.

It's not all Gomes' fault. He's a spare tire that performed well in that role. Put him on a race car....and, you're limiting your potential in a big way.

mth123
10-16-2010, 04:20 PM
I can agree with you on this mth. His defense, if you ask me, is basically on the borderline of acceptability. If he was hitting .280/.340/.560, I wouldn't have a problem with it. But he's a career .801 OPS hitter. I'm grateful he had a nice 2009 against RHP. But that's not who is he is. He's a platoon guy who had a career year in 2009. Given much more opportunity against them in 2010, he performed back at his career levels against them.

If you just want a platoon RH bat who can play a LF that is only sometimes embarrasing, bring him back. But there's simply zero justification for giving him a full time gig and I see no reason to commit a 25 man roster spot to the guy in November. There's just no reason for it.

As for the issue of being worried about not having depth behind Heisey or Nix, guys like Gomes aren't exactly hard to find. Heck, he had a much better year last year and he was still available for us to resign in the spring. Why would he be in greater demand after a worse season -- because he got more PA and accrued better counting stats? How many teams are desperate for a righty bat who crushes lefties, struggles versus righties and who can play passable defense on a good day? It's not that hard to find a guy like Jose Guillen, Ben Fransisco, Xavier Nady, Matt Diaz, Kevin Mench, Wladimir Balentien. What ever would we do if Gomes left!? How could we possibly replace him?

Gomes is eminently replaceable. And that's really my point. If in 5 months, we haven't found anything better, fine. I'll take Gomes over Luis Terrero. But I'd rather just have Danny Dorn. And if Gomes does go somewhere else, we're not going to have much trouble finding somebody who can give us the same production for under $2M. Sign Gomes now, and you've basically just committed to below average LF production yet again. I don't see the argument.

Actually, I think Gomes should be an odd man out myself. I like the idea of adding a lefty bat who can be the primary LF or at least the big side of a platoon. Assumimg there just aren't enough resources (cash) for a big time guy in LF, my 5 man OF would ideally be Bruce in RF, Stubbs in CF, Nix as a LH PH and LH alternative for Stubbs in CF, Heisey who could play CF or RF if Stubbs or Bruce is hurt and/or be the RH half of a LF platoon. The 5th guy would be my hoped for LH Hitter from outside the organization (I think Matt Joyce is an under the radar slugger in the making who kills RH Pitching and is a good defender to boot).

Where we differ is that I think Gomes and his counting stats will have some value on the market and I wouldn't just cut him loose. I'd exercise the option and try to deal him to a team looking for RH pop. If the market doesn't turn out, I'd try to deal him in the spring even if its for a middling prospect. In Spring I'd also give him a 1B glove and if he can't be dealt I'd let him be Votto's back-up who could give him an occassional day off against a tough lefty match-up and let him be RH power 1B/OF off the bench. At less than 2 Million, he'd be ok in that role.

Brutus
10-16-2010, 04:23 PM
THose of you who think Gomes is better than Heisey and Nix, are you guys in the "LF defense is irrelevant camp? Or do you think that Gomes is so far and away the best hitter of the bunch such that it outweighs the clear and significant defensive differences?

Gomes had a .758 OPS last year. Heisey was at .757. Nix was at .801.

For as much as Heisey struggled in the 2nd half, so did Gomes -- and he had the benefit of playing nearly every day. I just can't believe how willing people are to so minimize the impact of his horrible defense and to act as if he's some great slugger. I know defensive metrics aren't up to the level of offensive metrics. I just don't get how willing people are to act like defense is such a tiny part of a position players value -- especially after the mistakes Gomes made down the stretch defensively which cost us games.

Hesiey and Nix are no great shakes, but at least they provide positive value -- even when if they struggle at the plate. Gomes goes through long stretches of actively hurting the team.

There is absolutely no reason a fear of losing Jonny Gomes should drive the decision to commit for him for 2011. Sacrificing flexibility for the sake of eminently replaceable talent is one of the hallmarks of mediocre organizations.

I'm ready for the Gomes era to be done, so I suppose I'd prefer Heisey or Heisey/Nix if given the choice.

But to be fair, Gomes' career OPS is .790, and I think he's more likely to hit that if given another chance. Heisey we simply don't know if he's the .935 hitter before the ASB, the .660 hitter after the break, or the .757 in-between hitter going forward.

So while I've given my answer (go with Heisey if necessary), to be fair, is the decision really such a no-brainer if Gomes is back around his career OPS of .790 and Heisey is at his second-half OPS of (.660)--which was 2/3 of his plate appearances, to be fair?

It doesn't seem like as much of a no-brainer if we look at it in that context. If Heisey is likely to be a .757 hitter or more (which isn't irrational to expect, since it was in fact his season total), then yes, I think Heisey should get the nod if they don't look outside the organization. Though personally I'd like Balentien to get a full crack, but that's neither here nor there.

But anyhow, I don't think it's a slam-the-door shut debate. If Heisey were more proven, or at least more steady last year, perhaps it would be easier. Unfortunately he's still an unknown.

edabbs44
10-16-2010, 05:16 PM
Gomes in left reminds me of Griffey in right. Hard to find stats that articulate the difference.......but having Bruce in right tells us all we need to know about how tragic Gomes is in left. And the impact it has on the pitching.

It's not all Gomes' fault. He's a spare tire that performed well in that role. Put him on a race car....and, you're limiting your potential in a big way.

It is a little unfair to compare Gomes to a fielder like Bruce. I get the point, but if it takes a stud defender to tell us hat we need to know about Gomes' fielding, then is he really that bad?

edabbs44
10-16-2010, 05:17 PM
I'm not sure how anyone could've watched Gomes all season and not reached the conclusion that his defense is a serious liability and he was steady freddy in this regard from April.

Not really. Those miscues he was making late in the season weren't happening with that frequency in the 1st half of the season.

OnBaseMachine
10-16-2010, 05:19 PM
I'm not sure how anyone could've watched Gomes all season and not reached the conclusion that his defense is a serious liability and he was steady freddy in this regard from April.

Agreed. Gomes was terrible in the field all season and has been his whole career.

I'm hoping the Reds acquire a new left fielder via trade (DeJesus? Sizemore? Kemp? Ellsbury?), but if not, I would rather start Heisey or Nix in left field over Gomes.

Will M
10-16-2010, 05:26 PM
IMO Heisey and Nix are fine 4th & 5th outfielders.
I'd much prefer Hesiey as the RH bench outfielder over Gomes as he can play all three OF positions well.

Gomes is NOT an everyday left fielder. I think the Reds need to go out & get one (Werth, Crawford, DeJesus, Kemp, Choo, etc).

In my viewpoint I just don't see how Gomes fits in for 2011.

VR
10-16-2010, 05:34 PM
It is a little unfair to compare Gomes to a fielder like Bruce. I get the point, but if it takes a stud defender to tell us hat we need to know about Gomes' fielding, then is he really that bad?

Sorry, didn't come out right...I was saying we didn't appreciate how poor Griffey was....until we had a top notch right fielder in right like Bruce. Hope that makes sense.

We'll be talking about how poor Gomes is when (if?) we get someone full time out there that is average or better.

RedsManRick
10-16-2010, 06:09 PM
Brutus, the problem with your argument is that it presents it as a choice of Gomes or Heisey. It's not. It's spend 5 months trying to somebody better than either of them. And if you can't find anybody and you don't feel comfortable with Heisey as your everyday guy, then consider a guy like Gomes -- who will in all likelihood still be available. If Gomes himself is not available, a similar player will be.

I'm fine if people consider Heisey and Nix 4th/5th OF types. I agree with you. My point is that Gomes is too. We need to stop treating him like he's done something to deserve the title of average everyday LF. He hasn't. An .800 OPS bat who is among the worst defending OF in baseball is not something you aim for. Why would you resign a #4 OF to be your everyday guy in November?

Think of it this way. If Gomes weren't a Red last year and just another FA, would anybody in this thread be suggesting that we go sign him?

Gomes is like EE. On his good days, we think "wow, what a bargain". But on average he's doing damage with the glove and the bat isn't consistently good enough to make up for it. You know how we think of EE on the heels of Rolen's season. A year from now, Gomes will be like that too.

mth123
10-16-2010, 06:32 PM
Some facts:

1. The Reds probably can't afford a big dollar guy for LF.

2. With Gomes and Heisey already on the roster and Wlad in AAA, I'm guessing Walt is going to go for a LH Hitter with some power and defensive ability to fill the role he had envisioned for Edmonds when he dealt for him.

3. So far there has been a reluctance to deal a significant package of youth (multiple youngsters) to make an acquisition.

4. Walt, like most GMs, has a history of acquiring guys that he has some history with.

When all those facts are considered, a likely target just may be:

Rick Ankiel.

Ankiel has an option for $6 Million in 2011 and IMO its unlikely to be exercised. He'll likely be available with no player cost and a reasonable cash cost. He has the history with Walt and is actually very effective against RHP. Last year, even with a seemingly bad season, he had a line of .256/.339/.462/.801 in 177 PAs vs. RHP. He a pretty good OF with a good arm (he was a pitcher remember) and seems to hit better in the NL. GABP would suit him well and I wouldn't be surprised to see a platoon of Ankiel/Gomes in the 5 or 6 hole in 2011. Not sure I'd love the idea (I probably wouldn't hate it either though), but I could see it happening.

Brutus
10-16-2010, 06:51 PM
Brutus, the problem with your argument is that it presents it as a choice of Gomes or Heisey. It's not. It's spend 5 months trying to somebody better than either of them. And if you can't find anybody and you don't feel comfortable with Heisey as your everyday guy, then consider a guy like Gomes -- who will in all likelihood still be available. If Gomes himself is not available, a similar player will be.

I'm fine if people consider Heisey and Nix 4th/5th OF types. I agree with you. My point is that Gomes is too. We need to stop treating him like he's done something to deserve the title of average everyday LF. He hasn't. An .800 OPS bat who is among the worst defending OF in baseball is not something you aim for. Why would you resign a #4 OF to be your everyday guy in November?

Think of it this way. If Gomes weren't a Red last year and just another FA, would anybody in this thread be suggesting that we go sign him?

Gomes is like EE. On his good days, we think "wow, what a bargain". But on average he's doing damage with the glove and the bat isn't consistently good enough to make up for it. You know how we think of EE on the heels of Rolen's season. A year from now, Gomes will be like that too.

I was responding to your question of "those of you that think Gomes is better than Heisey or Nix." It was you that made the assumption it would be one or the other, or at least, posed the question as such. I never said anything about being satisfied with that choice. As I stated, and have said multiple times in this thread and other threads, I hope the Reds go out and find another option. I'm not content with any of them.

But if we're talking in-house options, and that's exactly what your post mentioned, then I don't think it's a slam dunk (though Heisey's upside is greater than Gomes).

The discussion wasn't whether the Reds should be satisfied. The discussion was whether, if they struck out on an outside alternative, whether Gomes or Heisey or Nix should be given the starting job. At least that was the way your original post made it sound.

RedsManRick
10-16-2010, 06:56 PM
The discussion wasn't whether the Reds should be satisfied. The discussion was whether, if they struck out on an outside alternative, whether Gomes or Heisey or Nix should be given the starting job. At least that was the way your original post made it sound.

Sorry, that wasn't clear to me. In any event, I'd still rather give Hesiey the shot because at least he's got upside. Even if Gomes has another very good offensive year, his defense significantly limits his overall production. If we wanted to go with the bad defender who can hit, let's just give Dorn a go and save our pennies.

In any event, I think I've made my position plenty clear. :D

Redhook
10-16-2010, 07:11 PM
I believe Gomes will be back, although I prefer the Reds to go elsewhere. It'd be a good time to buy Kemp low, IMO. I'm not sure what it'd take to get him, but I'd give it a shot if I'm Walt.

edabbs44
10-16-2010, 08:37 PM
Brutus, the problem with your argument is that it presents it as a choice of Gomes or Heisey. It's not. It's spend 5 months trying to somebody better than either of them. And if you can't find anybody and you don't feel comfortable with Heisey as your everyday guy, then consider a guy like Gomes -- who will in all likelihood still be available. If Gomes himself is not available, a similar player will be.

I'm fine if people consider Heisey and Nix 4th/5th OF types. I agree with you. My point is that Gomes is too. We need to stop treating him like he's done something to deserve the title of average everyday LF. He hasn't. An .800 OPS bat who is among the worst defending OF in baseball is not something you aim for. Why would you resign a #4 OF to be your everyday guy in November?

Think of it this way. If Gomes weren't a Red last year and just another FA, would anybody in this thread be suggesting that we go sign him?

Gomes is like EE. On his good days, we think "wow, what a bargain". But on average he's doing damage with the glove and the bat isn't consistently good enough to make up for it. You know how we think of EE on the heels of Rolen's season. A year from now, Gomes will be like that too.

Has anyone suggested that Walt will or should exercise Gomes' option in November and not continue to look to upgrade the position?

edabbs44
10-16-2010, 08:39 PM
Agreed. Gomes was terrible in the field all season and has been his whole career.

I'm hoping the Reds acquire a new fielder via trade (DeJesus? Sizemore? Kemp? Ellsbury?), but if not, I would rather start Heisey or Nix in left field over Gomes.

I had no idea that you've been following him that closely his whole career.

jojo
10-16-2010, 08:50 PM
Not really. Those miscues he was making late in the season weren't happening with that frequency in the 1st half of the season.

The guy was bad defensively all year. Read game threads beginning in April. Or even better rewatch some games in the mlbtv archives.

He also entered the season with a very poor reputation.

Gomes' poor reputation is the perfect storm where scouting reports, a consensus of advanced defensive metrics, and fans' eyes all agree.

It's very tough to convincingly argue that Gomes is anything other than a significant defensive liability. There's too much evidence to the contrary.

His shoulder wasn't injured either.

There isn't much reason to think that what we've seen isn't what we'll get more of concerning Gomes in a Cincy uni.

Going forward, it's important that he's used in roles that give him the best chance to succeed and for him that means being a role player who enters the game in rather narrowly defined circumstances.

Scrap Irony
10-16-2010, 09:17 PM
Even as poor as Gomes was last season (and he certaily could have been better), Red LFers ranked right at the middle of the pack across major league baseball. With fewer injuries to his split partners (both Nix and Edmonds were injured just as Gomes was really struggling), Gomes likely would have put up better numbers.

That said, a strict platoon would be ideal, IMO. That would allow for Gomes' mashing against southpaws and another big bat against portsiders. I'd sign someone like Brad Hawpe. He'll probably be fairly cheap and, before this year, was a 900 OPS bat with solid D in RF.

Between them, you could legitimately OPS around 950, allowing for a great bat that would mask Gomes' poor glove and move them into the upper stratosphere of LF production.

Of course, that would mean dealing or not signed Nix and moving Heisey to the fifth OF spot/ pinch runner. It would also likely mean dealing Alonso (no spot).

I'm hoping that's what Jocketty has in mind.

The good news is that that's what he had in mind two years ago when Gomes was signed. The bad news is that Gomes played an awful lot the past two years when he was the wrong end of the platoon.

edabbs44
10-16-2010, 10:19 PM
The guy was bad defensively all year. Read game threads beginning in April. Or even better rewatch some games in the mlbtv archives.

He also entered the season with a very poor reputation.

Gomes' poor reputation is the perfect storm where scouting reports, a consensus of advanced defensive metrics, and fans' eyes all agree.

It's very tough to convincingly argue that Gomes is anything other than a significant defensive liability. There's too much evidence to the contrary.

His shoulder wasn't injured either.

There isn't much reason to think that what we've seen isn't what we'll get more of concerning Gomes in a Cincy uni.

Going forward, it's important that he's used in roles that give him the best chance to succeed and for him that means being a role player who enters the game in rather narrowly defined circumstances.

The game threads...where objectivity goes to die.

Here are a few 1st half Gomes comments related to his defense that jive with what my assessment was at the time as well.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2086128&postcount=102

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2099608&postcount=387

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2099650&postcount=394

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2099656&postcount=395

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2099833&postcount=411

So I guess I wasn't alone in what I thought in the 1st half.

Like I said earlier, his defense deteriorated significantly down the stretch and he would be a major liability if that were to be his true defense. But he was nowhere near that bad in the 1st half.

edabbs44
10-16-2010, 10:32 PM
Even as poor as Gomes was last season (and he certaily could have been better), Red LFers ranked right at the middle of the pack across major league baseball. With fewer injuries to his split partners (both Nix and Edmonds were injured just as Gomes was really struggling), Gomes likely would have put up better numbers.

That said, a strict platoon would be ideal, IMO. That would allow for Gomes' mashing against southpaws and another big bat against portsiders. I'd sign someone like Brad Hawpe. He'll probably be fairly cheap and, before this year, was a 900 OPS bat with solid D in RF.

Between them, you could legitimately OPS around 950, allowing for a great bat that would mask Gomes' poor glove and move them into the upper stratosphere of LF production.

Of course, that would mean dealing or not signed Nix and moving Heisey to the fifth OF spot/ pinch runner. It would also likely mean dealing Alonso (no spot).

I'm hoping that's what Jocketty has in mind.

The good news is that that's what he had in mind two years ago when Gomes was signed. The bad news is that Gomes played an awful lot the past two years when he was the wrong end of the platoon.

If you are a believer in UZR, Hawpe is a peer of Gomes in the field. I haven't paid too much attention to him as a Rockie so i don't know how accurate this is, but their production may need to mask Hawpe's "poor" glove as well.

corkedbat
10-16-2010, 11:10 PM
If you are a believer in UZR, Hawpe is a peer of Gomes in the field. I haven't paid too much attention to him as a Rockie so i don't know how accurate this is, but their production may need to mask Hawpe's "poor" glove as well.

I'd mentioned Hawpe earlier and the season and was told he was horrible in the field. I haven't paid enough attention to him in the field to know. His bat works for me though.

If they were to just add a lefty like Hawpe or Ankiel, I'd try to find a way to bring back Balentein to battle Gomes and Heisey for the RH side of the platoon in ST. More power than Heisey and more defense than Gomes. Shouldn't cost too much either.

VR
10-16-2010, 11:56 PM
The majority of 'discussion' is around Gomes. And yet of 89 votes.......not a single poster wants him as 'the guy'

jojo
10-17-2010, 09:24 AM
The game threads...where objectivity goes to die.

Here are a few 1st half Gomes comments related to his defense that jive with what my assessment was at the time as well.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2086128&postcount=102

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2099608&postcount=387

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2099650&postcount=394

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2099656&postcount=395

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2099833&postcount=411

So I guess I wasn't alone in what I thought in the 1st half.

Like I said earlier, his defense deteriorated significantly down the stretch and he would be a major liability if that were to be his true defense. But he was nowhere near that bad in the 1st half.

Gomes had an OPS of 1.056 in May. It's not surprising that some were arguing his defense wasn't bad enough to out weight his bat at that level. Meanwhile his UZR and Dewans plus minus were already atrocious. Ignore the run value. He was the worst defender in left by just looking at plays.

He didn't get worse defensively as the season went along. UZR and Dewan's showed a guy who was very consistent in that regard. People mostly just got less tolerant of his defense as the season when along when his bat became a noodle and it was clear that shoulder/spreadsheet counterarguments held no water...

jojo
10-17-2010, 09:25 AM
If you are a believer in UZR, Hawpe is a peer of Gomes in the field. I haven't paid too much attention to him as a Rockie so i don't know how accurate this is, but their production may need to mask Hawpe's "poor" glove as well.

Hawpe is a DH.

Scrap Irony
10-17-2010, 11:25 AM
Hawpe's defensive numbers are from RF, primarily, and UZR grades out against position. If he switches to LF (and is able to play in a much smaller park for half his games with a plus-plus defender beside him), Hawpe should grade out as either average or slightly below average.

If he OPSes over 900 against righties, he's a 3.0 - 4.0 WAR player, defense included. Add in Gomes' value against LH and you're talking a near MVP platoon (at 5.0 - 6.5) at around $5 million per season.

jojo
10-17-2010, 11:58 AM
Hawpe's defensive numbers are from RF, primarily, and UZR grades out against position. If he switches to LF (and is able to play in a much smaller park for half his games with a plus-plus defender beside him), Hawpe should grade out as either average or slightly below average.

If he OPSes over 900 against righties, he's a 3.0 - 4.0 WAR player, defense included. Add in Gomes' value against LH and you're talking a near MVP platoon (at 5.0 - 6.5) at around $5 million per season.

The difference between switching a guy between corner outfield positions historically has not been that great. In fact it's closer to the truth that one might expect a player to perform very similarly with the exception that a strong arm can make more of a difference in right.

Hawpe may get a discount for switching to GAPB but it's probably much more reasonable to expect his ceiling to be -15 rather than average. The guy is Gomes bad with the leather for much the same reasons-lousy range and an arm that isn't a threat.

Hawpe is best used as a DH.

Scrap Irony
10-17-2010, 01:28 PM
The difference between switching a guy between corner outfield positions historically has not been that great. In fact it's closer to the truth that one might expect a player to perform very similarly with the exception that a strong arm can make more of a difference in right.

Hawpe may get a discount for switching to GAPB but it's probably much more reasonable to expect his ceiling to be -15 rather than average. The guy is Gomes bad with the leather for much the same reasons-lousy range and an arm that isn't a threat.

Hawpe is best used as a DH.

jojo, you'd favor a team with Heisey in LF rather than a team with a platoon of Hawpe and Gomes?

DH or not, if he can OPS 900+ against RH, he's an asset in LF. That's Dunnian production with a (slightly, if UZR is to be believed) better glove.

I'd take that in the middle of my order and in LF, especially for $5-7 million.

edabbs44
10-17-2010, 02:09 PM
Gomes had an OPS of 1.056 in May. It's not surprising that some were arguing his defense wasn't bad enough to out weight his bat at that level. Meanwhile his UZR and Dewans plus minus were already atrocious. Ignore the run value. He was the worst defender in left by just looking at plays.

He didn't get worse defensively as the season went along. UZR and Dewan's showed a guy who was very consistent in that regard. People mostly just got less tolerant of his defense as the season when along when his bat became a noodle and it was clear that shoulder/spreadsheet counterarguments held no water...

Disagree. I understand that perception could be clouded, but I know what I saw. He hand a few questionable plays out there no doubt but they were much more frequent down the stretch.

edabbs44
10-17-2010, 02:14 PM
The majority of 'discussion' is around Gomes. And yet of 89 votes.......not a single poster wants him as 'the guy'

Last offseason some of the more popular choices for "the guy" were Balentien and Dickerson with Gomes being a bench guy and Nix getting cut.

Just for perspective.

Far East
10-17-2010, 02:47 PM
Last offseason some of the more popular choices for "the guy" were Balentien and Dickerson with Gomes being a bench guy and Nix getting cut.

Just for perspective.
Last offseason, I wanted Balentein and Nix in LF and Dickerson and Stubbs in CF -- I think that was before Gomes had signed. Didn't he sign relatively late?

LoganBuck
10-17-2010, 02:56 PM
Disagree. I understand that perception could be clouded, but I know what I saw. He hand a few questionable plays out there no doubt but they were much more frequent down the stretch.

I can't agree with this at all. Gomes allowed hits to fall, and balls to get to the wall. His specialty was the ball down the line, that he would seemingly always try to cut off, and then allow it to trickle around in the corner, while stumbling to pick it up, and then making a bad throw back in.

In the Cardinal series with the brawl, I would argue that his defense cost the Reds nine runs.

A better fielder gets the ball that Roy Halladay hit in the playoffs.

Lets not even pretend that he was anywhere close to adequate out there.

OnBaseMachine
10-17-2010, 03:00 PM
Jonny Gomes: defensive stud in April.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2010_04_18_cinmlb_pitmlb_1&mode=wrap

RedsManRick
10-17-2010, 04:05 PM
Jonny Gomes: defensive stud in April.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2010_04_18_cinmlb_pitmlb_1&mode=wrap

C'mon, don't let real events get in the way of selective memory and a good narrative.

Plus Plus
10-17-2010, 07:25 PM
First off, I don't think anybody is defending Gomes' defense to the extent where single game recaps and snarky replies would be necessitated. Gomes is not a defensive specialist by any stretch of the imagination; the argument seems to simply be whether or not he would be worth the 1.75m that he gets paid if his option is picked up. Frankly, I wouldn't lose a second of sleep over the option being exercised because 1.75m is small enough that a spring training release wouldn't be crippling to the club's finances. Aaron Miles was released last spring with a salary significantly larger than 1.75m, and I don't think a single poster pointed to his stagnant salary of 2.7m as an amount of money that prevented the Reds from making any acquisitions. Gomes is also significantly more useful than Miles...

Another option that *could* be interesting is Andruw Jones. He was a 1.5 win player last year at a meager 500k salary. Is he worth looking at?

OnBaseMachine
10-17-2010, 07:41 PM
First off, I don't think anybody is defending Gomes' defense to the extent where single game recaps and snarky replies would be necessitated. Gomes is not a defensive specialist by any stretch of the imagination; the argument seems to simply be whether or not he would be worth the 1.75m that he gets paid if his option is picked up. Frankly, I wouldn't lose a second of sleep over the option being exercised because 1.75m is small enough that a spring training release wouldn't be crippling to the club's finances. Aaron Miles was released last spring with a salary significantly larger than 1.75m, and I don't think a single poster pointed to his stagnant salary of 2.7m as an amount of money that prevented the Reds from making any acquisitions. Gomes is also significantly more useful than Miles...

Another option that *could* be interesting is Andruw Jones. He was a 1.5 win player last year at a meager 500k salary. Is he worth looking at?

The issue with picking up Gomes' option is he'll more than likely play way more than he should, and that's a big problem. I think there are better options. Balentien, Heisey, and Nix are all better options from within, IMO, but my hope is they can acquire someone from outside the organization.

Plus Plus
10-17-2010, 08:18 PM
The issue with picking up Gomes' option is he'll more than likely play way more than he should, and that's a big problem. I think there are better options. Balentien, Heisey, and Nix are all better options from within, IMO, but my hope is they can acquire someone from outside the organization.

Isn't that a managerial problem rather than a problem with the player, though?

As an aside, I would absolutely adore the acquisition of a "real" LF. I just wouldn't mind Gomes coming back in a more limited role.

OnBaseMachine
10-17-2010, 08:43 PM
Isn't that a managerial problem rather than a problem with the player, though?


Some of it, yeah, but some blame goes on the GM too for not acquiring a better option.

RedsManRick
10-17-2010, 08:47 PM
Isn't that a managerial problem rather than a problem with the player, though?

As an aside, I would absolutely adore the acquisition of a "real" LF. I just wouldn't mind Gomes coming back in a more limited role.

Maybe. But the manager is the manager for the next 2 years. That variable is no longer in play.

mth123
10-17-2010, 09:03 PM
I really don't think that the Reds can afford to pour a lot of money into LF or SS. The money needs to go toward locking up Votto, Cueto and Bruce, bringing back Arroyo and maybe bringing back Ramon (though I have serious doubts that he'll be worth it) and Arthur Rhodes. Names like Werth, Crawford and Damon probably will be too rich for the Reds.

Getting back to the original question, here are 5 names that I think are obtainable, affordable and possibly enough to fill a need.

1. Matt Joyce - This guy is my first choice given the budget. He went .241/.360/.477/.837 in 261 PAs in 2010 and his OPS against RHP was even better at .910. By all reports he is a very good defender and his bat plays well in the middle of the order (.525 Slg against RHP). If the Reds want to form a power duo with Gomes, Joyce is a good option. Of course he could also platoon with Heisey or Wlad and has the glove for RF if Bruce should go down. Joyce is controllable for a while (he isn't even arb eligible yet) so its not like we'd be dealing away the future if prospect were dealt to obtain him.

2. Kelly Johnson - Johnson has been playing 2B the last few years, but he converted from the OF and he's much better defensively there. He's another lefty with power (26 HR in 2010 with a line of .284/.370/.496/.865). Johnson provides the added bonus of being able to spot in at 2B and maybe 3B to give Phillips and Rolen a rest. Johnson made a little less than 2.5 Million in 2010 and is arb eligible coming off a big year. He may be a little rich for the D-Backs. He may cost the Reds a little more, but the D-Backs need arms and if you offer them a Valaika as a backfill that saves money and a guy like Maloney with some lower level kids you never know. Rumor was the D-Backs were looking to move him at the deadline in 2010 to save money.

3. David Murphy - Another guy who profiles as a middle of the order platoon bat. He's a LF with some pop. His play-off heroics may make him a little more difficult to acquire, but if the Rangers sign Josh Hamilton to a big buck deal, they likely try to keep him out of CF in order to keep him healthy. Murphy would have no place to play. He'll be arb eligible and might be too expensive to keep as an insurance policy. Seeing how the Rangers burn through arms in the pen, its possible that a package of arms headlined by the likes of Bray and Burton could get it done.

4. Rick Ankiel - The Braves hold an option at $6 Million, so I'd suspect he'll be getting his $500K buy-out and hit the market. The big advantage is that he wouldn't cost the team any players and with a couple of spotty seasons and his ties to Walt, he may be obtainable for a fairly low guarantee with some incentives. His .709 OPS in 2010 on the heels of a below .700 in 2009 may not look like much, but against RHP he had an .801 OPS in 177 PAs and GABP and its way of favoring lefty power bats may be a real benefit to a guy like him. I wouldn't be surprised.

5. Mark Teahan -He's owed $4.75 Million in 2011 and $5.5 Million in 2012 and the Sox may be ready to give Dayan Viciedo a look after his nice audition (.840 OPS in 106 PAs) in 2010. They may be willing to move Teahan in a salary dump for little in terms of talent. Teahan doesn't quite have the bat I'd prefer and even against RHP he only slugs in the 420s, but he would be a solid guy for the mix and as the insurance policy at 3B.

RedsManRick
10-17-2010, 09:06 PM
Like the ideas mth. I've suggested Joyce as a good target as well. I hadn't considered Kelly Johnson, but he's an interesting idea. If anything, this list helps make it clear how many options there are for LF.

edabbs44
10-17-2010, 10:19 PM
Jonny Gomes: defensive stud in April.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2010_04_18_cinmlb_pitmlb_1&mode=wrap

That proved a little more than nothing.

RedsManRick
10-17-2010, 10:59 PM
That proved a little more than nothing.

It was more evidence than your unsupported assertions about the timing and frequency of his poor play.

REDblooded
10-17-2010, 11:14 PM
Count me in as one that believes that Heisey was seriously set back by how he was used this season... If he wasn't going to get 2-3 starts a week, I'd much rather have seen him developing his game in AAA so that he COULD be the guy this season... And if his game proved otherwise, than at least you knew for sure...

Jpup
10-18-2010, 12:12 AM
Jason Werth is another option. He will cost a ton though.

corkedbat
10-18-2010, 01:20 AM
If they go the platoon route, I say again, I'd like to see Balentein brought back and given a shot at the RH'd side. For some reason, I've got this feeling that he's about to bust loose. I like the idea any of Joyce, Johnson and Ankiel, mth. Ankiel would give you a LH bat to spell Stubbs in CF occaisionally too.

Will M
10-18-2010, 01:32 AM
I really don't think that the Reds can afford to pour a lot of money into LF or SS. The money needs to go toward locking up Votto, Cueto and Bruce, bringing back Arroyo and maybe bringing back Ramon (though I have serious doubts that he'll be worth it) and Arthur Rhodes. Names like Werth, Crawford and Damon probably will be too rich for the Reds.

Getting back to the original question, here are 5 names that I think are obtainable, affordable and possibly enough to fill a need.

1. Matt Joyce - This guy is my first choice given the budget. He went .241/.360/.477/.837 in 261 PAs in 2010 and his OPS against RHP was even better at .910. By all reports he is a very good defender and his bat plays well in the middle of the order (.525 Slg against RHP). If the Reds want to form a power duo with Gomes, Joyce is a good option. Of course he could also platoon with Heisey or Wlad and has the glove for RF if Bruce should go down. Joyce is controllable for a while (he isn't even arb eligible yet) so its not like we'd be dealing away the future if prospect were dealt to obtain him.

2. Kelly Johnson - Johnson has been playing 2B the last few years, but he converted from the OF and he's much better defensively there. He's another lefty with power (26 HR in 2010 with a line of .284/.370/.496/.865). Johnson provides the added bonus of being able to spot in at 2B and maybe 3B to give Phillips and Rolen a rest. Johnson made a little less than 2.5 Million in 2010 and is arb eligible coming off a big year. He may be a little rich for the D-Backs. He may cost the Reds a little more, but the D-Backs need arms and if you offer them a Valaika as a backfill that saves money and a guy like Maloney with some lower level kids you never know. Rumor was the D-Backs were looking to move him at the deadline in 2010 to save money.

3. David Murphy - Another guy who profiles as a middle of the order platoon bat. He's a LF with some pop. His play-off heroics may make him a little more difficult to acquire, but if the Rangers sign Josh Hamilton to a big buck deal, they likely try to keep him out of CF in order to keep him healthy. Murphy would have no place to play. He'll be arb eligible and might be too expensive to keep as an insurance policy. Seeing how the Rangers burn through arms in the pen, its possible that a package of arms headlined by the likes of Bray and Burton could get it done.

4. Rick Ankiel - The Braves hold an option at $6 Million, so I'd suspect he'll be getting his $500K buy-out and hit the market. The big advantage is that he wouldn't cost the team any players and with a couple of spotty seasons and his ties to Walt, he may be obtainable for a fairly low guarantee with some incentives. His .709 OPS in 2010 on the heels of a below .700 in 2009 may not look like much, but against RHP he had an .801 OPS in 177 PAs and GABP and its way of favoring lefty power bats may be a real benefit to a guy like him. I wouldn't be surprised.

5. Mark Teahan -He's owed $4.75 Million in 2011 and $5.5 Million in 2012 and the Sox may be ready to give Dayan Viciedo a look after his nice audition (.840 OPS in 106 PAs) in 2010. They may be willing to move Teahan in a salary dump for little in terms of talent. Teahan doesn't quite have the bat I'd prefer and even against RHP he only slugs in the 420s, but he would be a solid guy for the mix and as the insurance policy at 3B.

Kelly Johnson would be a nice addition to the Reds. A lefty hitter who can play 2B/3B/LF & OPSed 865 last year. Sounds like an almost perfect addition to the team.

Homer Bailey
10-18-2010, 01:42 AM
If they go the platoon route, I say again, I'd like to see Balentein brought back and given a shot at the RH'd side. For some reason, I've got this feeling that he's about to bust loose. I like the idea any of Joyce, Johnson and Ankiel, mth. Ankiel would give you a LH bat to spell Stubbs in CF occaisionally too.

Isn't Balentein better against righties than lefties though?

edabbs44
10-18-2010, 02:31 AM
It was more evidence than your unsupported assertions about the timing and frequency of his poor play.

One play? Really? Did I ever say he was perfect in the field in the first half?

Plus Plus
10-18-2010, 02:43 AM
nm

edabbs44
10-18-2010, 08:11 AM
I can't agree with this at all. Gomes allowed hits to fall, and balls to get to the wall. His specialty was the ball down the line, that he would seemingly always try to cut off, and then allow it to trickle around in the corner, while stumbling to pick it up, and then making a bad throw back in.

In the Cardinal series with the brawl, I would argue that his defense cost the Reds nine runs.

A better fielder gets the ball that Roy Halladay hit in the playoffs.

Lets not even pretend that he was anywhere close to adequate out there.

I know that the "Gomes allowed ___ runs" is a popular argument made by his detractors, so I have the following 2 questions:

1) If this is a fair argument, can we then start awarding credit like that for hitters? Like if Gomes hits a 3 run HR, can we then say he is responsible for 3 runs?

2) A first cousin of this argument is if Gomes (or anyone) misplays a ball, the rest of the inning is now on them even if the pitcher walks the 40 man roster while giving up 7 HRs. Are we also allowed to place the blame of the misplay on the pitcher if he walks the pitcher with 2 outs or if he lets a weak hitting SS get a hit to keep the inning going?

Just looking for balance.

LoganBuck
10-18-2010, 08:53 AM
I know that the "Gomes allowed ___ runs" is a popular argument made by his detractors, so I have the following 2 questions:

1) If this is a fair argument, can we then start awarding credit like that for hitters? Like if Gomes hits a 3 run HR, can we then say he is responsible for 3 runs?

2) A first cousin of this argument is if Gomes (or anyone) misplays a ball, the rest of the inning is now on them even if the pitcher walks the 40 man roster while giving up 7 HRs. Are we also allowed to place the blame of the misplay on the pitcher if he walks the pitcher with 2 outs or if he lets a weak hitting SS get a hit to keep the inning going?

Just looking for balance.

I don't make this argument very often. Gomes is so pathetic in the field that it became a several times a week issue.

The playoff game was the perfect example. He couldn't get to that ball Roy Halladay hit. Every other Cincinnati outfielder gets that ball. Volquez goes back to the dugout, maybe talks with the Bryan Pryce, drinks some Gatorade, and goes back out there with a different perspective. Disaster averted. Who knows in a 1-0 game, perhaps the game is played differently. Maybe they bunt more, whatever. They still got no hit.

jojo
10-18-2010, 09:05 AM
One play? Really? Did I ever say he was perfect in the field in the first half?

One play? Come on.....

edabbs44
10-18-2010, 09:09 AM
One play? Come on.....

I know he had a few adventures out there in the first half. I never said he was flawless.

jojo
10-18-2010, 09:10 AM
I know that the "Gomes allowed ___ runs" is a popular argument made by his detractors, so I have the following 2 questions:

1) If this is a fair argument, can we then start awarding credit like that for hitters? Like if Gomes hits a 3 run HR, can we then say he is responsible for 3 runs?

He gets 1.94 runs on average....


2) A first cousin of this argument is if Gomes (or anyone) misplays a ball, the rest of the inning is now on them even if the pitcher walks the 40 man roster while giving up 7 HRs. Are we also allowed to place the blame of the misplay on the pitcher if he walks the pitcher with 2 outs or if he lets a weak hitting SS get a hit to keep the inning going?

Just looking for balance.

UZR assigns him roughly .75 to .8 runs per botch. If you're looking for balance, look to UZR.

jojo
10-18-2010, 09:11 AM
I know he had a few adventures out there in the first half. I never said he was flawless.

He'd was very bad before the all-star break and he was very bad after it.

edabbs44
10-18-2010, 09:28 AM
I don't make this argument very often. Gomes is so pathetic in the field that it became a several times a week issue.

The playoff game was the perfect example. He couldn't get to that ball Roy Halladay hit. Every other Cincinnati outfielder gets that ball. Volquez goes back to the dugout, maybe talks with the Bryan Pryce, drinks some Gatorade, and goes back out there with a different perspective. Disaster averted. Who knows in a 1-0 game, perhaps the game is played differently. Maybe they bunt more, whatever. They still got no hit.

Ok. And maybe Volquez, in the heat of being in a classic pitching duel for the ages, overthrows and blows out his arm again.

Seriously though, this is my point. Don't walk Ruiz with 2 out and don't key Halladay smoke a line drive off you. Do that and Gomes doesn't misplay the ball.

What came first, the chicken or the egg?

edabbs44
10-18-2010, 09:43 AM
He gets 1.94 runs on average....



UZR assigns him roughly .75 to .8 runs per botch. If you're looking for balance, look to UZR.

So in order for him to have allowed 9 runs in the Stl series, he would have needed to have about a dozen botches, correct?

HokieRed
10-18-2010, 09:58 AM
Ok. And maybe Volquez, in the heat of being in a classic pitching duel for the ages, overthrows and blows out his arm again.

Seriously though, this is my point. Don't walk Ruiz with 2 out and don't key Halladay smoke a line drive off you. Do that and Gomes doesn't misplay the ball.

What came first, the chicken or the egg?

Josh Hamilton, unfortunately.

jojo
10-18-2010, 10:15 AM
So in order for him to have allowed 9 runs in the Stl series, he would have needed to have about a dozen botches, correct?

According to UZR, on average....

But it seems a little pedantic to evoke UZR as counterpoint to the argument that Gomes' defense is a significant liability in this fashion.... Clearly the point the poster was making was that Gomes defense was a game changer in the St Louis series and it's a valid point IMHO.

And it's Volquez' fault that Gomes has no range? Pitching relies heavily upon the defense.

edabbs44
10-18-2010, 10:26 AM
According to UZR, on average....

But it seems a little pedantic to evoke UZR as counterpoint to the argument that Gomes' defense is a significant liability in this fashion.... Clearly the point the poster was making was that Gomes defense was a game changer in the St Louis series and it's a valid point IMHO.

And it's Volquez' fault that Gomes has no range? Pitching relies heavily upon the defense.

No, but it is Volquez' fault that he had zero command that game and continually fell behind hitters. Volquez was dead that game no matter what. Blaming Gomes for that mess of an outing is just protecting the true one with fault. Jonny is just an easier target due to the mob mentality.

And no one is saying that Gomes didn't have issues that series. I even said from that point on he deteriorated in the field. But laying 9 runs of blame on him is as inaccurate as it gets.

LoganBuck
10-18-2010, 02:58 PM
No, but it is Volquez' fault that he had zero command that game and continually fell behind hitters. Volquez was dead that game no matter what. Blaming Gomes for that mess of an outing is just protecting the true one with fault. Jonny is just an easier target due to the mob mentality.

And no one is saying that Gomes didn't have issues that series. I even said from that point on he deteriorated in the field. But laying 9 runs of blame on him is as inaccurate as it gets.

I can lay four runs on him, on Colby Rasmus' grand slam alone. With two outs and the bases loaded, Gomes dropped a catch just in foul territory. The next pitch lands in front of the batters' eye. Sorry I know he didn't allow the hits or walks that led to the bases being loaded. He didn't throw the pitch that was hit for a grand slam, but Bronson Arroyo didn't ask for him to drop the inning ending flyball along the line. And yes it was catchable, and his effort was ugly.

Brutus
10-18-2010, 03:05 PM
I can lay four runs on him, on Colby Rasmus' grand slam. With two outs and the bases loaded, Gomes dropped a catch just in foul territory. The next pitch lands in front of the batters' eye. Sorry I know he didn't allow the hits or walks that led to the bases being loaded. He didn't throw the pitch that was hit for a grand slam, but Bronson Arroyo didn't ask for him to drop the inning ending flyball along the line. And yes it was catchable, and his effort was ugly.

I'm not getting involved into the 'is Gomes really bad or just bad' debate, but this is still silly to blame someone for a grand slam when he didn't throw the pitch. Arroyo is the one that served it up, not Gomes. The Gomes mistake was a big one... but pitchers have to go back and pitch. It's their job. If they give up a home run, they're equally responsible for the failure.

HokieRed
10-18-2010, 03:41 PM
Agree with Brutus. Look, we know certain things. Gomes is way below average in LF; a club serious about defense in that position wouldn't consider him as an everyday player. Volquez has made little progress with command over this career; if he had, he'd be a TO
R guy. He hasn't; he's not; it's very unlikely he's going to. Nobody would care except that we traded the obvious RF-CF-LF solution for him (put Josh in any of the three--voila, LCS). Arroyo's the kind of pitcher who especially needs good defense b/c he's one slightly missed pitch away from the GS anytime three men are on base. Conclusion: trade Volquez, and somebody else, for the real solution in LF.

TheNext44
10-18-2010, 04:16 PM
I'm not getting involved into the 'is Gomes really bad or just bad' debate, but this is still silly to blame someone for a grand slam when he didn't throw the pitch. Arroyo is the one that served it up, not Gomes. The Gomes mistake was a big one... but pitchers have to go back and pitch. It's their job. If they give up a home run, they're equally responsible for the failure.

Exactly, which is why the UZR measure of .78 runs per botched play makes sense.

But Hokie hit on the most important point that means much more than exactly how many runs Gomes give up defensively.

It's impossible to watch Gomes on a daily basis and concluded anything other than he is a below average LF defensively. And considering that he is at best an average LF offensively, it's clear the Reds needs to upgrade LF, especially with so many Reds pitchers who put a lot of balls in play.

sivman17
10-18-2010, 07:03 PM
I like the Kelly Johnson suggestion a lot. Another name that I haven't seen mentioned that I think would be worth a look is Scott Posednik. He will be 35 years old by Opening Day next year but he's pretty solid and durable. He'd also be a good candidate for a leadoff hitter. His leadoff numbers for his career are .281/.341/.384. No one on the Reds batting with at least 50 ABs at leadoff had better than a .251 BA this season.

He doesn't have power like a lot of us want, but he would still be a major upgrade to what we have in my opinion in terms of overall LF play.

Posednik has the option to void the Dodger's $2 million option.

Brutus
10-18-2010, 07:29 PM
I like the Kelly Johnson suggestion a lot. Another name that I haven't seen mentioned that I think would be worth a look is Scott Posednik. He will be 35 years old by Opening Day next year but he's pretty solid and durable. He'd also be a good candidate for a leadoff hitter. His leadoff numbers for his career are .281/.341/.384. No one on the Reds batting with at least 50 ABs at leadoff had better than a .251 BA this season.

He doesn't have power like a lot of us want, but he would still be a major upgrade to what we have in my opinion in terms of overall LF play.

Posednik has the option to void the Dodger's $2 million option.

I've been on the Kelly Johnson bandwagon all year. Saw him in Atlanta several times before they cut him loose and loved the guy. If he can be had from the Diamondbacks, that would be where I'd look.

Podsednik doesn't interest me much. If he still had his speed from 5 or 6 years ago, I'd be good with a .350 OBP, speedy leadoff guy. He doesn't seem to be that guy any longer though.

sivman17
10-18-2010, 08:05 PM
Podsednik doesn't interest me much. If he still had his speed from 5 or 6 years ago, I'd be good with a .350 OBP, speedy leadoff guy. He doesn't seem to be that guy any longer though.

He's definitely not the 70 stolen base guy he was in '04, but he still had 35 SBs this season with a .342 OBP. Obviously he wouldn't be a long-term solution, but definitely better than Gomes. For the money I think he could be decent.

Brutus
10-18-2010, 08:41 PM
He's definitely not the 70 stolen base guy he was in '04, but he still had 35 SBs this season with a .342 OBP. Obviously he wouldn't be a long-term solution, but definitely better than Gomes. For the money I think he could be decent.

Eh. But he was a -10 run UZR guy with a total WAR of 0.4. While the OBP (if he could do it again) would be decent, he's not really much of an upgrade. The WAR is only 5 runs better than Gomes was.

If he were a great defender, I'd be in agreement. But he's not even that.

mth123
10-18-2010, 10:12 PM
Just checking in to say that I hate the idea of Scott Podsednik almost as much as I hated the idea of Willy Taveras.

I'd rather have Corey Patterson.

corkedbat
10-19-2010, 02:31 AM
Another name intrigues me. Ryan Ludwyck. Think the Pads would go for a package of young'uns? He was in St. Looney when Walt was, wasn't he? I know WJ likes guys he's familiar with.

Ron Madden
10-19-2010, 04:03 AM
Just checking in to say that I hate the idea of Scott Podsednik almost as much as I hated the idea of Willy Taveras.

I'd rather have Corey Patterson.



That makes two of us.

mth123
10-19-2010, 06:08 AM
Another name intrigues me. Ryan Ludwyck. Think the Pads would go for a package of young'uns? He was in St. Looney when Walt was, wasn't he? I know WJ likes guys he's familiar with.

I think he'd be a pretty good target if they can afford him. He made about $5 and a half Million in 2010 and is arb eligible. I'd say he's a non-tender candidate and might be had pretty cheaply as a non-tender. If the Reds try to trade for him, he probably wouldn't cost much in talent, but the salary would be a lot more. I just wonder if the Reds are willing to go to that much if it opens up other names on the FA market. I'm guessing too pricey for a trade, but a good idea as a non-tender.

sivman17
10-22-2010, 12:16 PM
Mark Sheldon thinks the Reds could try for Podsednik. Not sure why no one here wants him. To me he seems like a logical, solid, cheap option for leadoff.


It's still early for either free agents or the trade market to have fully developed. One who is expected to be available on the free-agent market is the veteran left fielder Scott Podsednik, who split this season with the Royals and Dodgers and batted a combined .297 with a .342 on-base percentage and 35 stolen bases.

Homer Bailey
10-22-2010, 12:18 PM
Mark Sheldon thinks the Reds could try for Podsednik. Not sure why no one here wants him. To me he seems like a logical, solid, cheap option for leadoff.

His defense worries me. I'd rather have Crisp if we are going the route I think we're going.

jojo
10-22-2010, 12:41 PM
How about trading for a guy like David Murphy or Angel Pagan?

bucksfan2
10-22-2010, 12:46 PM
How about trading for a guy like David Murphy or Angel Pagan?

I would love to see Angel Pagan in a Reds uniform. Unfortunately I don't think the Mets are going to part with him.

reds1869
10-22-2010, 01:31 PM
His defense worries me. I'd rather have Crisp if we are going the route I think we're going.

Either of those guys would be a net upgrade over Gomes, who while not as bad defensively as given credit for is pretty horrendous out there. The ultimate goal is to improve without burdening club resources; if we improve only marginally it is still an improvement.

Far East
10-25-2010, 01:03 AM
It is an extreme long shot, but I'd like to see if Micah Owings could approach the turn-around that Rick Ankiel did and attempt a conversion to being a position player -- corner infield/corner outfield.

He might not fare as well as Ankiel, but he has a chance (holes in his swing and all) to be a better hitter than he is a pitcher.

Slyder
10-25-2010, 01:10 AM
It is an extreme long shot, but I'd like to see if Micah Owings could approach the turn-around that Rick Ankiel did and attempt a conversion to being a position player -- corner infield/corner outfield.

He might not fare as well as Ankiel, but he has a chance (holes in his swing and all) to be a better hitter than he is a pitcher.

Thats something to play out over the next couple years. If he sees the majors as a LF before then someone epically failed or we've seen a rash of injuries that make the Red Sox season look normal.

TheNext44
10-25-2010, 01:27 AM
I would love to see Angel Pagan in a Reds uniform. Unfortunately I don't think the Mets are going to part with him.

New GM. He'll probably listen to anything for anyone. He or Murphy would be very nice targets.

Hap
10-25-2010, 10:53 AM
After 98 votes in the poll, no one has yet selected the Jonny Gomes option.

Mr. Jocketty, are you reading this?

HINT.........HINT...........HINT

edabbs44
10-25-2010, 11:09 AM
After 98 votes in the poll, no one has yet selected the Jonny Gomes option.

Mr. Jocketty, are you reading this?

HINT.........HINT...........HINT

I wonder how many votes would have went to Dickerson or Balentien last offseason. Or Burrell or Bradley the year before.

But seriously, I think at least a few people here wouldn't be angry with Walt exercising now and looking for a LF partner for Jonny. And it seems like Walt is headed in that direction. Keep that in mind in case Mr. Platoon doesn't show up this winter. Because for all the names that get thrown around here, the two things that no one knows are price and availability to the Reds.

wally post
10-25-2010, 11:20 AM
I am secretly hoping the Yankees go nuts and sign Crawford and we can get them to trade us Gardner!!

edabbs44
10-25-2010, 11:24 AM
I am secretly hoping the Yankees go nuts and sign Crawford and we can get them to trade us Gardner!!

Anything's possible after them getting wiped out by Texas.

_Sir_Charles_
10-25-2010, 11:40 AM
I voted for Gomes in a similar role. Not because I think he's the answer. Far from it. I simply don't see another guy in the organization who would produce better right now. I'm not sold on Heisey. I don't see Francisco, Frazier or Alonzo as fitting in the outfield at all. But the main reason I went with Gomes is that I just don't see many solid targets that are in our budget for left. I'd prefer that the Reds settle on positions for all those kids I mentioned earlier and take this next season to really solidify the youth defensively. Gomes is a cheap option to fill the void until somebody is ready. I know some want to trade our pitching to fill the LF hole, but I really don't want to trade off young solid pitching for what many consider to be the easiest position on the field to fill. Now if we can deal Alonzo for a solid LF'er, I'd be fine with it...but I don't see his value as being that high. So for me, another year of Jonny won't upset me that much.

I(heart)Freel
10-25-2010, 12:52 PM
I'm sure he was mentioned somewhere in this thread... but today's MLB Trade Rumors site has a profile of LF trade candidates.

Might be a decent time to acquire DeJesus. Was OBPing 380 when he was hurt last year. The injury makes him risky but also less expensive from a trade standpoint.

Also bats lefty, making Gomes a good complement.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/10/trade-market-for-left-fielders.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

cincy09
10-25-2010, 01:21 PM
I am secretly hoping the Yankees go nuts and sign Crawford and we can get them to trade us Gardner!!

Me too! He would be a great fit.

Chip R
10-25-2010, 01:26 PM
But seriously, I think at least a few people here wouldn't be angry with Walt exercising now and looking for a LF partner for Jonny. And it seems like Walt is headed in that direction. Keep that in mind in case Mr. Platoon doesn't show up this winter. Because for all the names that get thrown around here, the two things that no one knows are price and availability to the Reds.


I was of the opinion that Nix was the LF platoon partner for Gomes. Turned out Gomes got the job full time.

mdccclxix
10-25-2010, 01:33 PM
I think Stubbs will become a .350-.360+ OBP leadoff hitter next year, so I'm not keen on the Garner, DeJesus solutions, especially since they lack power.

I'm hoping against hope that Alonso can hack it in LF. I know it's not possible, but a platoon with Alonso and Gomes would really look nice. You could actually get away with batting Gomes 4th in a platoon role. I also think it's time to move Jay to 4th, I think he's ready. So, there's lots you can do with in house pieces. I'd rather give them a shot and find an ace pitcher.

edabbs44
10-25-2010, 02:03 PM
I was of the opinion that Nix was the LF platoon partner for Gomes. Turned out Gomes got the job full time.

I think it went like this:

April: Dickerson/Gomes
May-July: Gomes
August-Sept: Gomes/Nix/Edmonds
Oct: Gomes/Nix

Save for Gomes' hot streak, I think there were opportunities for others to get legit playing time. Those guys either got hurt, didn't step up at the time or both.

RedsManRick
10-25-2010, 02:21 PM
The article also touched on Josh Willingham. He would be a nice mid-tier upgrade over Gomes. He's a mediocre defender (as opposed to a poor one), but his bat has been very consistent. For those who don't like the internal options nor think a big signing or trade for a star is in the cards, he's worth consideration.

edabbs44
10-25-2010, 02:27 PM
The article also touched on Josh Willingham. He would be a nice mid-tier upgrade over Gomes. He's a mediocre defender (as opposed to a poor one), but his bat has been very consistent. For those who don't like the internal options nor think a big signing or trade for a star is in the cards, he's worth consideration.

Agreed, but what does he get in arb this year? The article says $7MM is his range, is he worth more than $5MM over Gomes in 2011? Especially for a team like Cincy?

RedsManRick
10-25-2010, 02:47 PM
Agreed, but what does he get in arb this year? The article says $7MM is his range, is he worth more than $5MM over Gomes in 2011? Especially for a team like Cincy?

If both repeat their 2009 production, he's worth more than $7MM more than Gomes given FA prices for production. Fangraphs has Willingham at worth more than $10MM in each of the past three seasons -- and he's never gotten more than 502 PA. By contrast, Gomes was worth ~$5MM last year and nothing this year.

I do know that if we add payroll, I'd want it to be on a player who is a virtual lock to earn his salary. Willingham has been extremely consistent, posting OPSs of .852, .827, .834, .863, .848 during his 5 years of significant playing time.

But to your real point, is that the most cost effective way for the Reds to add production? I don't know. We could add cheap talent by trading away cheap talent of our own, but can is the necessarily better? In a bubble, I'd much rather have Willingham at 7 than Gomes at any price -- but I realize the addition of salary carries some real opportunity cost.

TheNext44
10-25-2010, 03:23 PM
The article also touched on Josh Willingham. He would be a nice mid-tier upgrade over Gomes. He's a mediocre defender (as opposed to a poor one), but his bat has been very consistent. For those who don't like the internal options nor think a big signing or trade for a star is in the cards, he's worth consideration.

I'm still wondering why the Reds didn't pick him up when he went to the Nationals a few years ago.

marcshoe
10-25-2010, 03:36 PM
I'm seeing a few names suggested here and there that make me wonder if we're still stuck in the lost decade mindset. While I like some of the suggestions (Kelly Johnson), others are the types of guys teams like the Royals and Pirates have to settle for. It's time to set our sights higher. Go ahead and see if Werth or someone similar is a real possibility. Don't take a step bakward.

edabbs44
10-25-2010, 03:59 PM
I'm seeing a few names suggested here and there that make me wonder if we're still stuck in the lost decade mindset. While I like some of the suggestions (Kelly Johnson), others are the types of guys teams like the Royals and Pirates have to settle for. It's time to set our sights higher. Go ahead and see if Werth or someone similar is a real possibility. Don't take a step bakward.

While I tend to agree, Werth is also the kind of contract that could murder this team.

I have referenced it before but there was an interesting podcast that Simmons had a few weeks ago with Olney talking about this exact thing. They were saying that it isn't the monster contracts that thend to kill teams, it's the second tier ones. Guys like Sabathia, Tex and whoever else tend to earn their money. But they mentioned Burnett and Lackey as two recent examples of second tier disasters.

Olney then said "Watch the loser in the Crawford sweepstakes go nuts for Werth and overpay", or something like that.

I agree with what he is saying...if this team is going to make some noise regarding a big, big FA signing, is this the guy we would want?

RedsManRick
10-25-2010, 04:26 PM
I'm seeing a few names suggested here and there that make me wonder if we're still stuck in the lost decade mindset. While I like some of the suggestions (Kelly Johnson), others are the types of guys teams like the Royals and Pirates have to settle for. It's time to set our sights higher. Go ahead and see if Werth or someone similar is a real possibility. Don't take a step bakward.

It's one thing to spend your remaining money to upgrade from 78 to 80 wins. It's quite another to go from 90 to 92. Patching some holes on a team that's mediocre at best is futile exercise. Patching some holes on a team that made the playoffs is a way to make sure you're able to return the next year.

I agree that the Reds should set their sights high. But we should remember that one of the biggest contributing factors to our situation in the 2000s was that we had limited payroll flex since such a high percentage was committed to a player who couldn't perform up to his contract as he broke down through his 30s. That's not to suggest Werth would do the same or that he'd be a bad investment, but it's a risk, perhaps an unnecessary one.

marcshoe
10-25-2010, 05:39 PM
Some of these guys, though, aren't much of an upgrade over rolling your dice, which has was the Reds old philosophy. Still, there are others not named Werth I wouldn't complain about. Without checking his numbers, Garnder's another one who'd fit nicely.

edabbs44
10-25-2010, 05:44 PM
Some of these guys, though, aren't much of an upgrade over rolling your dice, which has was the Reds old philosophy. Still, there are others not named Werth I wouldn't complain about. Without checking his numbers, Garnder's another one who'd fit nicely.

Sure, and if CC lands in NY then maybe he is available. But it seems like NY is at the upper levels of their pay ceiling and Gardner is the type of guy they need. I don't think that he is available.

marcshoe
10-25-2010, 05:45 PM
edit: I just looked at Gardner on Baseball Reference, and the first two names on the comp list took me aback. It wasn't anything against the players, who I know nothing about, it was just their names. And the second, to make it worse, had the nickname 'Ugly'.

marcshoe
10-25-2010, 05:50 PM
Sure, and if CC lands in NY then maybe he is available. But it seems like NY is at the upper levels of their pay ceiling and Gardner is the type of guy they need. I don't think that he is available.

I don't really see them trading him either, but you never know. The front office might have a wild hair about Colby Rasmus, even. I would guess, though, that Gardner's the kind of, if you'll excuse the word, scrappy player the fans there love.

'course that also begs the question of whether NY even has a pay ceiling.

Edd Roush
10-25-2010, 07:06 PM
I don't understand why people believe Jayson Werth is such a step down from Carl Crawford. While I understand that Crawford is slightly more valuable due to his defense, I really think Jayson Werth's bat is better. He has slugged .498 or better for the past three years and has had an OBP of at least .363 for each of the last three years. That is a premium bat for me. Some one is going to pay a lot of money for it, and I think he will be worth it in the middle of the line-up. I personally think he would be great to stick between Votto and Bruce and actually have an above average heart of the line-up. Plus, you gotta love Werth's career slugging percentage of .550 against lefties. Nice way to break up Bruce and Votto.

Will M
10-25-2010, 07:33 PM
I don't understand why people believe Jayson Werth is such a step down from Carl Crawford. While I understand that Crawford is slightly more valuable due to his defense, I really think Jayson Werth's bat is better. He has slugged .498 or better for the past three years and has had an OBP of at least .363 for each of the last three years. That is a premium bat for me. Some one is going to pay a lot of money for it, and I think he will be worth it in the middle of the line-up. I personally think he would be great to stick between Votto and Bruce and actually have an above average heart of the line-up. Plus, you gotta love Werth's career slugging percentage of .550 against lefties. Nice way to break up Bruce and Votto.

IMO if we had the money Werth would be perfect for the Reds. I would prefer him over Crawford for the exact reasons you state.

How much money he will get is unclear. Once the 2008 recession hit salaries have dropped. But some premium guys still get their cash (like Holliday last year). 4/$48M - sign me up. 7/$105M - no way.

sivman17
10-25-2010, 08:22 PM
Since I don't believe the Reds will get Crawford or Werth, and there isn't a whole lot else out there, I see them doing this.. I think they will re-sign Gomes, and go with the platoon of him and Nix, with Heisey playing occasionally. Dave Sappelt absolutely raked this year at every level. I see them bringing him up and getting some time in LF. I just don't see a big move coming in LF.

TheNext44
10-25-2010, 09:17 PM
Jayson Werth will be 32 most of next season, which means that he will be on the downside of his career for most of his next contract, if not all of it. He also missed a full season with a very serious wrist injury. He clearly is fully revcoverd, but also is clearly damaged goods, and who knows how long he will be able to stay healthy. He also has "old" skills that are likely to decline greatly over the next few years. Steve Kemp anyone?

Carl Crawford is the middle of his prime, and in most of the last year of a 4 year contract, will be 33. He has been pretty much injury free, (save a gruesome shot to the crotch this year) and has "young" skills, that likely won't decline much over the next few seasons.

Add in that Crawford is simply a better and more productive player than Werth right now, and It really is no contest. I would say that Crawford is worth at least 1.5 as much as Werth, and maybe even twice as much.

westofyou
10-25-2010, 10:52 PM
A smart team with limited resources, tenuous payroll projections doesn't even play the big ticket FA game for a corner OF, if they dabble for them it will be trade, they target guys about to blossom, they target guys who might succeed in the GAB.

The Reds will spend money on a SS before they sign a big ticket corner OF, they feel 2 OF spots are covered now, a hole sits in the middle IF, Phillips is locked in, Rolen, Votto is property.

They'll spot fill LF, it's the position that's open, it's a pizza night position on this team, it's a crapshoot.

LoganBuck
10-25-2010, 11:11 PM
Jason Bay got 4 years 66 million, last year. Their numbers from a cursory glance seem similar, and they each hit free agency at the same age.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bayja01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/werthja01.shtml

RedsManRick
10-25-2010, 11:19 PM
I don't understand why people believe Jayson Werth is such a step down from Carl Crawford. While I understand that Crawford is slightly more valuable due to his defense, I really think Jayson Werth's bat is better. He has slugged .498 or better for the past three years and has had an OBP of at least .363 for each of the last three years. That is a premium bat for me. Some one is going to pay a lot of money for it, and I think he will be worth it in the middle of the line-up. I personally think he would be great to stick between Votto and Bruce and actually have an above average heart of the line-up. Plus, you gotta love Werth's career slugging percentage of .550 against lefties. Nice way to break up Bruce and Votto.

Crawford is 3 years younger, but production wise they have been similar.

jojo
10-25-2010, 11:27 PM
Werth is currently a better hitter while Crawford is a better defender and is emasculated by lefties. Crawford is 2.5 years younger.

Superdude
10-25-2010, 11:57 PM
Carl Crawford is the middle of his prime, and in most of the last year of a 4 year contract, will be 33. He has been pretty much injury free, (save a gruesome shot to the crotch this year) and has "young" skills, that likely won't decline much over the next few seasons.

What do you mean by "young" skills? I assume you're talking about Crawford's speed and Werth's power, but it seems like speed is likely to dry up much quicker with age than power would.

Redsfan320
10-26-2010, 12:03 AM
(save a gruesome shot to the crotch this year)

That was brutal. You should ALWAYS wear a cup. :lol:

320

TheNext44
10-26-2010, 01:57 AM
What do you mean by "young" skills? I assume you're talking about Crawford's speed and Werth's power, but it seems like speed is likely to dry up much quicker with age than power would.

Historically speaking, bigger, stronger players have aged and lost their skills quicker than fast, lean players did.

Humans generally might lose their speed quicker than their strength, but that's at a much later age, and doesn't involve elite skills.

Ron Madden
10-26-2010, 03:54 AM
A smart team with limited resources, tenuous payroll projections doesn't even play the big ticket FA game for a corner OF, if they dabble for them it will be trade, they target guys about to blossom, they target guys who might succeed in the GAB.The Reds will spend money on a SS before they sign a big ticket corner OF, they feel 2 OF spots are covered now, a hole sits in the middle IF, Phillips is locked in, Rolen, Votto is property.

They'll spot fill LF, it's the position that's open, it's a pizza night position on this team, it's a crapshoot.


I agree with the bolded part of WOY's post, the Reds can certainly upgrade the LF position without having to overspend for Werth or Crawford.

I was all for signing Werth but now I don't believe it would be in the best intrest of a club like the Reds with limited resources.

They might be better off in the long run with a stopgap kinda guy until they know what they have in Heisey or Sappelt. If none of those options work out they can always find someone to play LF through a trade or someone not demanding top dollar as a free agent.

Captain Hook
10-26-2010, 04:18 AM
I say the Reds bite the bullet in 2011 and sign Crawford or at least try.Let Cordero and Arroyo walk at the end of next year and consider that money saved as money already spent.Crawford should put this team over the top and with another good season the Reds could expect some extra money coming in that should allow them to pay some of the young guys that will require hefty contracts as well.

I know there are flaws in this thinking and I already know all the reasons the Reds shouldn't make this move but, at some point they've got to roll the dice.The Reds can't afford to regress next year and must capitalize on some of the rejuvenated interest in the team.

pahster
10-26-2010, 08:32 AM
I don't understand why people believe Jayson Werth is such a step down from Carl Crawford. While I understand that Crawford is slightly more valuable due to his defense, I really think Jayson Werth's bat is better. He has slugged .498 or better for the past three years and has had an OBP of at least .363 for each of the last three years. That is a premium bat for me. Some one is going to pay a lot of money for it, and I think he will be worth it in the middle of the line-up. I personally think he would be great to stick between Votto and Bruce and actually have an above average heart of the line-up. Plus, you gotta love Werth's career slugging percentage of .550 against lefties. Nice way to break up Bruce and Votto.

Crawford's 28, so he still has a few prime offensive years left. Werth is 31, so his bat is probably about to start deteriorating.

mdccclxix
10-26-2010, 01:30 PM
Crawford is the best fit for this team, but also the hardest to sign. He'll want at least 5 years, but more like 7. The Reds can't give that out.

A lineup like

Crawford
Stubbs
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
BP
C
SS

Would really score some runs.

blumj
10-26-2010, 02:47 PM
Crawford's 28, so he still has a few prime offensive years left. Werth is 31, so his bat is probably about to start deteriorating.
The difference is 2 years and a few months, and the younger one's most likely going to cost more money for 2 more years at least. Either way, you're probably going to get stuck with a few expensive years of a 35+ year old OFer on the back end. Free agency's almost never the best way to do it if you have another choice.

TheNext44
10-26-2010, 03:21 PM
The difference is 2 years and a few months, and the younger one's most likely going to cost more money for 2 more years at least. Either way, you're probably going to get stuck with a few expensive years of a 35+ year old OFer on the back end. Free agency's almost never the best way to do it if you have another choice.

I agree neither choice fits into the Reds plans. But at least with Crawford, you are likely to get more peek years out him. Those two years are right in the middle of his prime. There's a bigger difference between 29 an 31, than between 31 and 33.

RedsManRick
10-27-2010, 01:06 PM
Forgive me if it's been mentioned before, but rumor has the Yankees potentially shopping Nick Swisher for pitching. As a mid-tier option, like Josh Willingham, he seems to make a good deal of sense. He's a switch hitter, solid OBP, good pop, plays league average defense and even seems to share some of the personality traits that we appreciated in Gomes. He also has experience at 1B, giving us a viable backup to Votto -- something we've lacked.

He's under contract for $9MM in 2011 with a $10.25MM 2012 option w/ $1MM buyout. Fangraphs had him at 4.1 WAR last year, making him a bargain from the production he provided.

Raisor
10-27-2010, 01:47 PM
Forgive me if it's been mentioned before, but rumor has the Yankees potentially shopping Nick Swisher for pitching. As a mid-tier option, like Josh Willingham, he seems to make a good deal of sense. He's a switch hitter, solid OBP, good pop, plays league average defense and even seems to share some of the personality traits that we appreciated in Gomes. He also has experience at 1B, giving us a viable backup to Votto -- something we've lacked.

He's under contract for $9MM in 2011 with a $10.25MM 2012 option w/ $1MM buyout. Fangraphs had him at 4.1 WAR last year, making him a bargain from the production he provided.


I'm waiting for someone to tell us that Xavier Nady is better.

sivman17
10-27-2010, 02:38 PM
I'm waiting for someone to tell us that Xavier Nady is better.

Well if Nady got to face the Reds every game then yes he would be better. He bats something like .350 vs. CIN.

Brutus
10-27-2010, 03:06 PM
Forgive me if it's been mentioned before, but rumor has the Yankees potentially shopping Nick Swisher for pitching. As a mid-tier option, like Josh Willingham, he seems to make a good deal of sense. He's a switch hitter, solid OBP, good pop, plays league average defense and even seems to share some of the personality traits that we appreciated in Gomes. He also has experience at 1B, giving us a viable backup to Votto -- something we've lacked.

He's under contract for $9MM in 2011 with a $10.25MM 2012 option w/ $1MM buyout. Fangraphs had him at 4.1 WAR last year, making him a bargain from the production he provided.

I would trade Cueto straight up for Nick Swisher.

edabbs44
10-27-2010, 03:18 PM
I would trade Cueto straight up for Nick Swisher.

I don't think that I would.

Will M
10-27-2010, 03:21 PM
I would trade Cueto straight up for Nick Swisher.

seriously?

Swisher seems a fine guy for a rich team to bat 5th or 6th. He is kinda like Dunn & Howard. Low average. Walks a lot. Power bat.
He would certainly help the Reds although I am not sure we have the cash to pay $10-11M for a left fielder.

But for Cueto??? Cueto & Chapman are the two Reds pitchers I would not deal. He is 24 years old. We control him for 3 more years. He pitched 185 innings last year. His ERA was 3.64 . IMO Arroyo & Cueto are the two guys we can pencil in for 200 innings next year.

Brutus
10-27-2010, 03:40 PM
seriously?

Swisher seems a fine guy for a rich team to bat 5th or 6th. He is kinda like Dunn & Howard. Low average. Walks a lot. Power bat.
He would certainly help the Reds although I am not sure we have the cash to pay $10-11M for a left fielder.

But for Cueto??? Cueto & Chapman are the two Reds pitchers I would not deal. He is 24 years old. We control him for 3 more years. He pitched 185 innings last year. His ERA was 3.64 . IMO Arroyo & Cueto are the two guys we can pencil in for 200 innings next year.

The Reds had a replacement level player in left this past year, in theory. Nick Swisher was a 4-WAR guy. In theory, the Reds adding 4 wins in left is much greater than using one of their many SP options they already have. The difference of an upgrade from Gomes to Swisher > Cueto to Leake/Chapman/Bailey, etc.

sivman17
10-27-2010, 03:47 PM
Yeah I would never trade away Cueto for Swisher. Cueto is a big-time pitcher and is going to be the Ace of this team in the near future.

Cueto's a special player. I feel like Swisher has to bring that "clubhouse excitement" just like Gomes because they are lacking in other skills.

edabbs44
10-27-2010, 03:53 PM
The Reds had a replacement level player in left this past year, in theory. Nick Swisher was a 4-WAR guy. In theory, the Reds adding 4 wins in left is much greater than using one of their many SP options they already have. The difference of an upgrade from Gomes to Swisher > Cueto to Leake/Chapman/Bailey, etc.

Rick estimates Heisey to be a 2.5 WAR guy. Do you agree? Either yes or no, would you consider Cueto to be worth a 1.5 upgrade if there were a 2.5 guy on the roster?

TheNext44
10-27-2010, 03:55 PM
Forgive me if it's been mentioned before, but rumor has the Yankees potentially shopping Nick Swisher for pitching. As a mid-tier option, like Josh Willingham, he seems to make a good deal of sense. He's a switch hitter, solid OBP, good pop, plays league average defense and even seems to share some of the personality traits that we appreciated in Gomes. He also has experience at 1B, giving us a viable backup to Votto -- something we've lacked.

He's under contract for $9MM in 2011 with a $10.25MM 2012 option w/ $1MM buyout. Fangraphs had him at 4.1 WAR last year, making him a bargain from the production he provided.

As with Willingham, I don't know why the Reds didn't acquire Swisher when the White Sox made him available. The Yanks stole him for a song.

What type of pitching do the Yankees want for him?

HokieRed
10-27-2010, 03:57 PM
There's no one who'll offer me enough to trade Cueto, Chapman, or Bailey right now. Got to take the risk on the upside of those guys. It may not work out, but they're the key to lifting us up to the next level.

edabbs44
10-27-2010, 04:00 PM
As with Willingham, I don't know why the Reds didn't acquire Swisher when the White Sox made him available. The Yanks stole him for a song.

What type of pitching do the Yankees want for him?

I would guess that the $18MM or so price tag had something to do with it.

sivman17
10-27-2010, 04:16 PM
There's no one who'll offer me enough to trade Cueto, Chapman, or Bailey right now. Got to take the risk on the upside of those guys. It may not work out, but they're the key to lifting us up to the next level.

I agree. Cueto's already shown flashes of brilliance, as have Chapman and Bailey. I think Volquez is going to be a power for a while too.

I know Arroyo's been consistent for us and everything but if I was going to trade away pitching for an OFer I'd be willing to part with Arroyo.

TheNext44
10-27-2010, 04:22 PM
Arroyo for Swsher makes too much sense to ever happen.

Edd Roush
10-27-2010, 04:27 PM
Arroyo for Swsher makes too much sense to ever happen.

That would be great, and I think a lot of people around here would be down for that trade. However, isn't Bronson a 10/5 guy now? I can't see a way he would accept a trade to New York.

EDIT: Never mind, in the Bronson Arroyo extension thread, Brutus and jojo pointed out that he still hasn't even hit 9 years of service. With this in mind, I call up the Yankees and get this deal done.

Brutus
10-27-2010, 04:42 PM
Yeah I would never trade away Cueto for Swisher. Cueto is a big-time pitcher and is going to be the Ace of this team in the near future.

Cueto's a special player. I feel like Swisher has to bring that "clubhouse excitement" just like Gomes because they are lacking in other skills.

Nick Swisher's line this year:

.288 / .359 / .511 / .870

29 HR / 89 RBI while being basically an average defender in RF.

Exactly what type of skills do you think Swisher is lacking?

This year, Cueto was a 2.8 WAR guy according to Fangraphs. Mike Leake, one of the guys that could be put back in the rotation, was 1.1. Of course, if he pitches a full year it's probably slightly higher.

On the other hand, Swisher was 4.1. Gomes was -0.1.

The Reds could gain over 2 wins by trading Cueto for Swisher. Cueto has the chance to be really good, but so do several other Reds' starters.

For all the griping people have done about Gomes, if you have a chance to make that kind of upgrade to the overall roster, you do it.

Brutus
10-27-2010, 04:50 PM
Rick estimates Heisey to be a 2.5 WAR guy. Do you agree? Either yes or no, would you consider Cueto to be worth a 1.5 upgrade if there were a 2.5 guy on the roster?

I think he's got that kind of ability, definitely. But I'm not ready to hand the job over to Heisey based on the premise that he will produce consistently at that level. I'd rather go out and get a proven commodity if the opportunity exists to do so.

edabbs44
10-27-2010, 04:52 PM
Nick Swisher's line this year:

.288 / .359 / .511 / .870

29 HR / 89 RBI while being basically an average defender in RF.

Exactly what type of skills do you think Swisher is lacking?

This year, Cueto was a 2.8 WAR guy according to Fangraphs. Mike Leake, one of the guys that could be put back in the rotation, was 1.1. Of course, if he pitches a full year it's probably slightly higher.

On the other hand, Swisher was 4.1. Gomes was -0.1.

The Reds could gain over 2 wins by trading Cueto for Swisher. Cueto has the chance to be really good, but so do several other Reds' starters.

For all the griping people have done about Gomes, if you have a chance to make that kind of upgrade to the overall roster, you do it.

You are also treating these guys like baseball cards, like static entities.

sivman17
10-27-2010, 04:57 PM
Nick Swisher had been a below average OF prior to last season in my opinion. He batted a putrid .219 just two years ago. He didn't start playing well until he was placed in the Yankees lineup in front of Mark Teixeira.

We saw Orlando Cabrera hit well in the two-hole when he was followed by Votto. I'm sorry but I'm just not impressed by Swisher's numbers.

Brutus
10-27-2010, 04:57 PM
You are also treating these guys like baseball cards, like static entities.

No I'm absolutely not. I'm using the best available resources we have for making personnel decisions.

It's not possible to know exactly what a player will do going forward. It's certainly not 100% accurate to base it fully off what they've done in the past. But it's also even less prudent to dismiss those factors just because it's not a proven science.

There's a margin for error here, no question. But Nick Swisher is statistically better than Jonny Gomes over the course of their careers. I don't think there is too much disputing that.

Even applying a more dynamic viewpoint, how is it not an upgrade to go from a guy roughly replacement-level to someone that statistically ranks among the upper quadrant of outfielders? And when the Reds' biggest 'strength' is the quality (and depth) of the starting pitching, why wouldn't that be a worthwhile exchange?

It seems everyone here wants to get Gomes out of left (well, not everyone, but most) and most want to upgrade left field, but it seems no one wants to give up anything to do it.

OnBaseMachine
10-27-2010, 04:58 PM
I would trade Cueto straight up for Nick Swisher.

I'm a big Swisher fan but there's no way I would do that deal.

jojo
10-27-2010, 04:58 PM
You are also treating these guys like baseball cards, like static entities.

Is there a way to estimate the impact of players that can allow one to avoid the above criticism?

Brutus
10-27-2010, 05:00 PM
Nick Swisher had been a below average OF prior to last season in my opinion. He batted a putrid .219 just two years ago. He didn't start playing well until he was placed in the Yankees lineup in front of Mark Teixeira.

We saw Orlando Cabrera hit well in the two-hole when he was followed by Votto. I'm sorry but I'm just not impressed by Swisher's numbers.

Below average?

His career numbers in 3,700 plate appearances:

.252 / .358 / .469 / .827 (.357 wOBA....332 ish being average) while being a tick above average defensively.

Other than the average, which has been low, he's above average in everything else.

edabbs44
10-27-2010, 05:45 PM
No I'm absolutely not. I'm using the best available resources we have for making personnel decisions.

It's not possible to know exactly what a player will do going forward. It's certainly not 100% accurate to base it fully off what they've done in the past. But it's also even less prudent to dismiss those factors just because it's not a proven science.

There's a margin for error here, no question. But Nick Swisher is statistically better than Jonny Gomes over the course of their careers. I don't think there is too much disputing that.

Even applying a more dynamic viewpoint, how is it not an upgrade to go from a guy roughly replacement-level to someone that statistically ranks among the upper quadrant of outfielders? And when the Reds' biggest 'strength' is the quality (and depth) of the starting pitching, why wouldn't that be a worthwhile exchange?

It seems everyone here wants to get Gomes out of left (well, not everyone, but most) and most want to upgrade left field, but it seems no one wants to give up anything to do it.

I'm not even factoring in Gomes. I'm thinking of Cueto vs Swisher. You are looking at Cueto/Leake/Swish 2010 WARs in your example and applying to 2011.


This year, Cueto was a 2.8 WAR guy according to Fangraphs. Mike Leake, one of the guys that could be put back in the rotation, was 1.1. Of course, if he pitches a full year it's probably slightly higher.

On the other hand, Swisher was 4.1. Gomes was -0.1.

The Reds could gain over 2 wins by trading Cueto for Swisher. Cueto has the chance to be really good, but so do several other Reds' starters.


Your conclusion is based upon 2010, not what you think 2011 will bring. Cueto's WAR has gone from 1.2 to 1.5 to 2.8 (see a trend?) and you are assuming that Leake will be like 2010, at a minimum, with potential for an increase. Along with Swisher bringing 2010 value to Ohio.

Maybe the Reds' brass agree with you, but I think there needs to be more to decision making than pulling up the WAR numbers.

edabbs44
10-27-2010, 05:49 PM
Is there a way to estimate the impact of players that can allow one to avoid the above criticism?

If one's analysis consists of looking at a number from 2010 and generally applying that same number to 2011, then probably not.

The problem, in my estimation, is that sometimes we think that we have all the info and we really don't.

Brutus
10-27-2010, 05:55 PM
I'm not even factoring in Gomes. I'm thinking of Cueto vs Swisher. You are looking at Cueto/Leake/Swish 2010 WARs in your example and applying to 2011.



Your conclusion is based upon 2010, not what you think 2011 will bring. Cueto's WAR has gone from 1.2 to 1.5 to 2.8 (see a trend?) and you are assuming that Leake will be like 2010, at a minimum, with potential for an increase. Along with Swisher bringing 2010 value to Ohio.

Maybe the Reds' brass agree with you, but I think there needs to be more to decision making than pulling up the WAR numbers.

Perhaps I'm using 2010 because I don't see 2011 being radically different. You're making a (false) assumption that I'm ignoring 2011 when perhaps it's just simply that I think 2010 was a decent representation of what to expect in the future.

In 2011, I see Swisher as a 3.7-4.0 WAR guy and I see Cueto as a 3-win pitcher. I don't think Cueto will wind up doing much more than 3 wins a year. And believe me, I'd be fine with that. But I think that's what he'll wind up leveling off as.

Therefore, for the price and given the issue Cincinnati has with LF, I think this deal would make too much sense. Mind you, if I'm Walt Jocketty, I don't gleefully go to Brian Cashman and happily offer up Cueto right off the bat. I'd start off giving up less and see if a steal could be had. A Bronson Arroyo deal would be terrific. But at least a few reports indicated in the past that the Yankees had no interest in Arroyo. I'm assuming the Yankees will want someone like Cueto before giving up Swisher.

So given my expectations for next season are similar to what we saw in 2010, then I think it's quite fair to use past performance as my guide.

edabbs44
10-27-2010, 06:01 PM
Perhaps I'm using 2010 because I don't see 2011 being radically different. You're making a (false) assumption that I'm ignoring 2011 when perhaps it's just simply that I think 2010 was a decent representation of what to expect in the future.

In 2011, I see Swisher as a 3.7-4.0 WAR guy and I see Cueto as a 3-win pitcher. I don't think Cueto will wind up doing much more than 3 wins a year. And believe me, I'd be fine with that. But I think that's what he'll wind up leveling off as.

Therefore, for the price and given the issue Cincinnati has with LF, I think this deal would make too much sense. Mind you, if I'm Walt Jocketty, I don't gleefully go to Brian Cashman and happily offer up Cueto right off the bat. I'd start off giving up less and see if a steal could be had. A Bronson Arroyo deal would be terrific. But at least a few reports indicated in the past that the Yankees had no interest in Arroyo. I'm assuming the Yankees will want someone like Cueto before giving up Swisher.

So given my expectations for next season are similar to what we saw in 2010, then I think it's quite fair to use past performance as my guide.

Then that makes sense on your end. Not that I agree, but your logic is more clear to me.

mth123
10-27-2010, 08:33 PM
I can't really see the Yankees being interested in the Reds starters. They send guys like Chamberlain to the pen and leave Ivan Nova off the play-off roster and push these types aside in favor of established stars. Those are pretty similar to the guys the Reds have to deal. If the Yankees were to go with a question mark or a guy with unproven promise, I'd guess they would give one of those a look, but the Yankees don't need to deal for promise when they can afford to get guys who've already proven their worth. I think the Yankees are wanting to move Swisher, if this is true, to make room for Crawford or Werth, but Leake, Maloney, Lecure or even Wood or Bailey won't get it done. I'd do Volquez for Swisher, but doubt the Yankees would. The Yankees would probably take Chapman in a deal because of the hype, but would anyone do that?

I'd hate to give up one of the certainties like Arroyo or Cueto, but might be tempted if the Yanks add Nova in the deal to give the Reds another option if too many of the questions are answered no. The Reds could give a reliever or something if the Yanks want. I'm guessing the Yankees are still aiming higher.

TRF
10-29-2010, 04:22 PM
.282 .337 .536. 23 doubles, 25 HR's in 401 AAA AB's.

Wladimir Balentien at Louisville this year. 26 years old and he can't get any readier.

LF can be filled in house for a very minimal cost. SS is the real problem.

Brutus
11-03-2010, 09:08 PM
Vlad Guerrero's option was declined today. Just sayin'

edabbs44
11-03-2010, 09:54 PM
Vlad Guerrero's option was declined today. Just sayin'

He would make Gomes look like Crawford in LF. Just sayin'.

blumj
11-03-2010, 09:54 PM
Vlad Guerrero's option was declined today. Just sayin'

:eek:

Far East
11-04-2010, 02:33 AM
Instant replay from the Hot Stove Transactions thread:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Redsfan320
"...Mariners decline option on Russell Branyan..."

Could the 35-year-old-to-be Branyon be athletic enough to be one of the LH hitting platoon partners for Gomes in 2011? Russell once played the OF in 17 games for the Reds -- but that was way back in 2003. More recently he has done just 1B and DH in the AL. He is not a great fielder but perhaps could be a serviceable corner OF-corner IF-pinch hitter still.

In 2010, the 34 year old Branyon managed 25 HR in just 376 AB (one HR every 15 AB), 57 RBI, batted .237, had an OBP of 323, and slugged .487 -- for a $1,500,000 salary.

However, he struck out nearly 35% of the time and walked less than 12% of the time.

jojo
11-04-2010, 07:48 AM
Instant replay from the Hot Stove Transactions thread:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Redsfan320
"...Mariners decline option on Russell Branyan..."

Could the 35-year-old-to-be Branyon be athletic enough to be one of the LH hitting platoon partners for Gomes in 2011? Russell once played the OF in 17 games for the Reds -- but that was way back in 2003. More recently he has done just 1B and DH in the AL. He is not a great fielder but perhaps could be a serviceable corner OF-corner IF-pinch hitter still.

In 2010, the 34 year old Branyon managed 25 HR in just 376 AB (one HR every 15 AB), 57 RBI, batted .237, had an OBP of 323, and slugged .487 -- for a $1,500,000 salary.

However, he struck out nearly 35% of the time and walked less than 12% of the time.

Branyan could be Gomes' platoon partner at DH.