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OnBaseMachine
10-19-2010, 03:09 PM
From John Fay:


–The Reds have had initial talks with Arthur Rhodes’ agent about Rhodes coming back. They’ll talk again next week. I think you’ll see him back.


http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/10/19/talking-to-jocketty-2/

Other notes:

The Reds haven't informed any of the players with options whether they will exercise them or not.

Reds will look into bringing Ramon Hernandez back. It depends on how ready they think Devin Mesoraco is.

camisadelgolf
10-19-2010, 03:17 PM
It's 'obvious' that Gomes will be brought back. As it's been said many times, when your manager knows how to use him, he's a great piece to have. Unfortunately, Baker seems to think he's an everyday player. :(

pedro
10-19-2010, 03:28 PM
It's 'obvious' that Gomes will be brought back. As it's been said many times, when your manager knows how to use him, he's a great piece to have. Unfortunately, Baker seems to think he's an everyday player. :(

If the Reds had a better option then I think Baker would use him. Heisey may be they guy in the long run but he clearly didn't play like it this season when given the opportunity.

OnBaseMachine
10-19-2010, 03:32 PM
If the Reds had a better option then I think Baker would use him. Heisey may be they guy in the long run but he clearly didn't play like it this season when given the opportunity.

Agreed. Heisey struggled at times but his OPS (.757) was right on par with Gomes' (.758) and Heisey is a much better defender. If given a choice between thw two, I want Heisey starting. I hope it doesn't come down to that, though. I want the Reds to acquire someone from outside the organization.

edabbs44
10-19-2010, 03:38 PM
Agreed. Heisey struggled at times but his OPS (.757) was right on par with Gomes' (.758) and Heisey is a much better defender. If given a choice between thw two, I want Heisey starting. I hope it doesn't come down to that, though. I want the Reds to acquire someone from outside the organization.

I thought you were a big Wlad fan? What happened?

pedro
10-19-2010, 03:42 PM
Agreed. Heisey struggled at times but his OPS (.757) was right on par with Gomes' (.758) and Heisey is a much better defender. If given a choice between thw two, I want Heisey starting. I hope it doesn't come down to that, though. I want the Reds to acquire someone from outside the organization.


Heisey was god awful when he started though. His OPS was bolstered by those PH HR's.

Brutus
10-19-2010, 03:46 PM
It's 'obvious' that Gomes will be brought back. As it's been said many times, when your manager knows how to use him, he's a great piece to have. Unfortunately, Baker seems to think he's an everyday player. :(

It's like when a kid is overeating, the parents have to stop being enablers and stop buying the junk food.

Jocketty has to stop enabling Dusty :D

bucksfan2
10-19-2010, 03:47 PM
Heisey was god awful when he started though. His OPS was bolstered by those PH HR's.

IIRC Heisey's numbers were inflated because of good games/series against the Pirates and Cubs. He was awful down the stretch and when given a chance to play more he didn't do much.

westofyou
10-19-2010, 03:49 PM
Heisey doesn't deserve to be slotted in as a starter, nothing he did has said he's worthy of that role.

redsfandan
10-19-2010, 04:08 PM
Heisey doesn't deserve to be slotted in as a starter, nothing he did has said he's worthy of that role.
No, so far he doesn't. But, if the Reds are going with a platoon I'd like the guy that was a rookie in 2010 to get some abs.

OnBaseMachine
10-19-2010, 04:18 PM
Heisey was god awful when he started though. His OPS was bolstered by those PH HR's.

True, but Gomes didn't exactly fair much better. Gomes had one great month (1.056 OPS in May) and a .700 OPS combined in the other months. That, combined with his defense made him a huge liability. At least Heisey played defense when he wasn't hitting.

I just think there are better options available both from inside the organization (Balentien, Heisey, Nix) and outside the organization.

WMR
10-19-2010, 04:23 PM
It would be lovely if the Reds could find a true everyday-type LFer and could relegate Gomes to 4-5th OF/spot starter/PH role. His talent would be much better suited to such a position than the one he occupies currently (for a team that fancies its World Series chances).

camisadelgolf
10-19-2010, 04:26 PM
If the Reds had a better option then I think Baker would use him. Heisey may be they guy in the long run but he clearly didn't play like it this season when given the opportunity.
Heisey might be that guy, but I'm not talking about him. Against RHP, Baker should've been going with Laynce Nix more often. Yes, I'm aware that Nix was injured for a few weeks, but that doesn't explain why he got only 31 total starts while Gomes got 138 starts, 78 of which were against rhp.

edabbs44
10-19-2010, 05:52 PM
Heisey might be that guy, but I'm not talking about him. Against RHP, Baker should've been going with Laynce Nix more often. Yes, I'm aware that Nix was injured for a few weeks, but that doesn't explain why he got only 31 total starts while Gomes got 138 starts, 78 of which were against rhp.

Probably because he didn't do anything to justify getting starts until the end of the year. And then he started getting time. And then he got injured.

edabbs44
10-19-2010, 05:59 PM
True, but Gomes didn't exactly fair much better. Gomes had one great month (1.056 OPS in May) and a .700 OPS combined in the other months. That, combined with his defense made him a huge liability. At least Heisey played defense when he wasn't hitting.

I just think there are better options available both from inside the organization (Balentien, Heisey, Nix) and outside the organization.

Here are some facts:

Gomes was 2nd on the team in OPS last year.
Gomes was having a monster year up until the middle of June.

Based on that, when should they have pulled the plug on him? By the time it appeared that he wasn't pulling out of this they traded for Edmonds and started giving time to Heisey and Nix. These guys either got hurt or fell off the face of the earth.

I totally get that LF is likely a very upgradable position, but all of this hindsight is ridiculous. No manager/GM would have benched Gomes until the Reds started looking at other options.

Screwball
10-19-2010, 06:03 PM
It would be lovely if the Reds could find a true everyday-type LFer and could relegate Gomes to 4-5th OF/spot starter/PH role. His talent would be much better suited to such a position than the one he occupies currently (for a team that fancies its World Series chances).

You've been watching too much Champions League. ;)

I find it interesting the Reds are considering buying out Hernandez' option in favor of Mesoraco. Given the year he had and the fact that Mes started out in A ball last season, I thought it'd be a near lock they'd bring Ramon back for one more year.

_Sir_Charles_
10-19-2010, 06:14 PM
I'll be the first to admit that I defended Gomes early in the year because I seriously didn't think his defense was THAT bad. Well, he had a stretch of games just after the ASB (iirc) where he pretty much forced me to change my stance on that. But...that being said...for all the ragging people do here in regards to Gomes, keep this in mind.

2nd on the club in RBI's
5th on the club in Runs scored
4th on the club in Hits
5th on the club in 2b's
6th on the club in HR's

Those stats are for the most prolific offense in the NL remember.

As for his defense, yes...it's bad. But considering how bad it was....4 errors on the year. Below average...certainly. A liability...that may be stretching things. He's not Dunn on defense (or with the bat unfortunately).

I'm wondering if many of us here aren't simply seeing Gomes through the wrong perspective. Yes, his monstrous month of May got our hopes up...but the bottom line is that he produced. He may not have done it in the fashion that the bean-counters prefer, but he knocked in the 2nd most runs on the ballclub....that ain't half bad folks. Is Gomes a world-beater? Of course not. But I don't think he's anywhere close to as bad as many here are making him out to be. The numbers he posted are DEFINITELY solid enough to be a starter. Would I like to see the Reds get an improvement over Jonny? You betcha. But he ain't the slouch many here are labeling him as being.

edabbs44
10-19-2010, 06:16 PM
I thought that was interesting also. Seeing Devin split time with Hanigan while saving a MM or 2 might not be the worst idea if he is ready. I like Ramon but Mes may have forced their hand.

WMR
10-19-2010, 06:20 PM
You've been watching too much Champions League. ;)

I find it interesting the Reds are considering buying out Hernandez' option in favor of Mesoraco. Given the year he had and the fact that Mes started out in A ball last season, I thought it'd be a near lock they'd bring Ramon back for one more year.

:lol: GUILTY!! :D

Caveat Emperor
10-19-2010, 06:35 PM
I would like to see Hernandez back, but not at the cost of his club option. I think counting on Devin Mesoraco to be the answer to anything is foolhardy, considering last season was his first and only season of sustained success at any level of the minors. I'd bring Hernandez back, if possible, and make Mesoraco prove that his 2010 wasn't a fluke before factoring him in to long-term or short-term plans with the club.

Re: Heisey / Gomes -- the team needs better options than them in LF. Period, end of story.

Also, not really mentioned in this story, but I'd like to see Walt try and coax one more year out of Jim Edmonds. Even if his only role on the team is the occasional LH pinch hitter and 1B / OF spot-starter and only gives you 100 or so PAs over the course of the year, I think he's worth his weight in gold as a player-coach to guys like Bruce and Stubbs. I think it's absolutely no coincidence that Jay Bruce turned the corner as a hitter the minute Edmonds put on a Reds uni.

Boss-Hog
10-19-2010, 07:19 PM
I would like to see Hernandez back, but not at the cost of his club option. I think counting on Devin Mesoraco to be the answer to anything is foolhardy, considering last season was his first and only season of sustained success at any level of the minors. I'd bring Hernandez back, if possible, and make Mesoraco prove that his 2010 wasn't a fluke before factoring him in to long-term or short-term plans with the club.

Well said - catcher is a position where I'd rather not rush the player, especially one as young as Mesoraco and when other options such as Ramon (at a reduced salary) exist. While Devin had a great year with the bat, defense often takes quite a while to develop in young catchers and he has not been any exception. From what I gathered from perusing the minor league forum, the verdict seemed to be that his defense was much improved but not ready for the big leagues yet. For those in the know, is that a fair assessment?

Far East
10-19-2010, 08:06 PM
... But...that being said...for all the ragging people do here in regards to Gomes, keep this in mind.

2nd on the club in RBI's
5th on the club in Runs scored
4th on the club in Hits
5th on the club in 2b's
6th on the club in HR's

Those stats are for the most prolific offense in the NL remember...

If you take into account Jonny's 511 AB, then his SLG of .431 ranks him 5th on the team (among players with 200 or more AB).

His OBP was .327 -- 10th among Reds with 200 or more AB.

Gomes had an RBI for every 5.94 AB, behind Rolen's 1 RBI per 5.67 AB, Hannigan's RBI per 5.075 AB, and Votto's RBI per 4.84 AB.

Jonny's runs per AB was 0.151, compared to Bruce's 0.157, Phillips' 0.159, Heisey's 0.164, Stubbs' 0.177, and Votto's 0.194.

His hits per AB was 0.266, ranking him 8th (among Reds with 200 or more AB) in batting average.

Gomes doubles per AB was 0.047, compared to Janish's 0.050, Heisey's 0.050, Phillips' 0.053, Hannigan's 0.054, Hernandez's 0.058, Cairo's 0.060, Votto's 0.066, Cabrara's 0.067, and Rolen's 0.072.

Jonny hit a HR every 28.39AB, Heisey every 25.12 AB, Stubbs every 23.36 AB, Rolen every 23.55 AB, Bruce every 20.36 AB, and Votto every 14.78 AB.

Perhaps not always, but usually these percentages or per AB stats are more revealing than the absolute numbers.

For example, I wonder how Votto's HR per AB, RBI per AB, and others -- we know about his BA, SLG and OBP -- compare with the other sluggers in the running for MVP?

RedEye
10-19-2010, 08:24 PM
Here are some facts:

Gomes was 2nd on the team in OPS last year.
Gomes was having a monster year up until the middle of June.

2nd? I'm confused. You mean 6th?

Joey Votto 1.024
Scott Rolen .854
Jay Bruce .846
Drew Stubbs .773
Brandon Phillips .762
Jonny Gomes .758

Edit: Oh wait, you mean 2009 don't you. Sorry.

edabbs44
10-19-2010, 09:12 PM
Well said - catcher is a position where I'd rather not rush the player, especially one as young as Mesoraco and when other options such as Ramon (at a reduced salary) exist. While Devin had a great year with the bat, defense often takes quite a while to develop in young catchers and he has not been any exception. From what I gathered from perusing the minor league forum, the verdict seemed to be that his defense was much improved but not ready for the big leagues yet. For those in the know, is that a fair assessment?

Valid point. Though it should be noted that Walt has some experience in this dept with Yadier Molina.


While Molina handled a bat slightly better than the 34-year-old Matheny last season, it's a huge risk to turn over the role of helping pitching coach Dave Duncan prepare pitchers to someone so green. He is highly regarded for his receiving and game-calling skills but has played only 192 games above the Midwest League, which is low-A ball. Big-league pitchers aren't fond of catchers receiving on-the-job training.


http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=rogers_phil&id=1961619

The Cards won 100 games in 2005 and the WS the following year.

edabbs44
10-19-2010, 09:26 PM
2nd? I'm confused. You mean 6th?

Joey Votto 1.024
Scott Rolen .854
Jay Bruce .846
Drew Stubbs .773
Brandon Phillips .762
Jonny Gomes .758

Edit: Oh wait, you mean 2009 don't you. Sorry.

Yeah, should have been more clear.

MikeS21
10-19-2010, 10:11 PM
I agree with Caveat about Edmonds. I would LOVE to see Walt talk him into coming back. I was anti-Edmonds and had a cow when he was traded to the Reds. But in the few PA's I saw, added to the influence he had on Bruce and Stubbs, I quickly came around.

Who knows what an off-season may bring? A new team, a new doctor, a new outlook, Edmonds may just give it one more year.

OnBaseMachine
10-19-2010, 10:30 PM
I agree with those who would love to see Edmonds come back for one more season but I don't see it happening.

RedsManRick
10-19-2010, 10:44 PM
Counting stat rankings are silly when the primary complaint is that a guy got way more PA than he deserved.

The Operator
10-19-2010, 11:03 PM
Counting stat rankings are silly when the primary complaint is that a guy got way more PA than he deserved.
Agreed.

Chip R
10-19-2010, 11:12 PM
If they think Edmonds is so valuable, make him an assistant to the GM and have him in uniform before games. If he can help guys like Bruce out, great and he doesn't take up a roster spot.

Captain Hook
10-19-2010, 11:46 PM
Well said - catcher is a position where I'd rather not rush the player, especially one as young as Mesoraco and when other options such as Ramon (at a reduced salary) exist. While Devin had a great year with the bat, defense often takes quite a while to develop in young catchers and he has not been any exception. From what I gathered from perusing the minor league forum, the verdict seemed to be that his defense was much improved but not ready for the big leagues yet. For those in the know, is that a fair assessment?

I'm one that believes that Hanigan can handle starting the majority of the games.As a catcher he's still going to need some time off though, so it's not like a rookie is going to waste away on the bench but it's also not like we'd be counting on Mesoraco a ton.I've liked what Romon has brought to the team the last few years and while I don't promote salary dumping I don't think letting him go hurts us(Hanigan is that good).What it does is, frees up some money to be spent in areas that the team doesn't have any young guys that are beating on the door for big league playing time.

corkedbat
10-20-2010, 12:16 AM
I'm one that believes that Hanigan can handle starting the majority of the games.As a catcher he's still going to need some time off though, so it's not like a rookie is going to waste away on the bench but it's also not like we'd be counting on Mesoraco a ton.I've liked what Romon has brought to the team the last few years and while I don't promote salary dumping I don't think letting him go hurts us(Hanigan is that good).What it does is, frees up some money to be spent in areas that the team doesn't have any young guys that are beating on the door for big league playing time.

I wouldn't mind re-upping Ramon at a decent price. I'd like to see Mes at least start the season @ AAA and not to count on him to make the roster out of ST. If he shows he's ready, I think Ramon could be dealt for something decent at the deadline.

WVRedsFan
10-20-2010, 12:30 AM
I'm one that believes that Hanigan can handle starting the majority of the games.As a catcher he's still going to need some time off though, so it's not like a rookie is going to waste away on the bench but it's also not like we'd be counting on Mesoraco a ton.I've liked what Romon has brought to the team the last few years and while I don't promote salary dumping I don't think letting him go hurts us(Hanigan is that good).What it does is, frees up some money to be spent in areas that the team doesn't have any young guys that are beating on the door for big league playing time.As should be expected, the more games Hanigan plays as the season moves along, the less effective he'll be at the plate as is the norm (and his defense will be exemplary anyway). He needs Ramon there to competently back him up or visa-versa. I think the tandem of Hernandez and Hanigan worked perfectly this year and I see nothing to make me believe any change should be made. The kid is a kid. He may come up and be a star, but that is unlikely. Potential is great, but another year would give us a better idea of what we've got.

Captain Hook
10-20-2010, 12:34 AM
I wouldn't mind re-upping Ramon at a decent price. I'd like to see Mes at least start the season @ AAA and not to count on him to make the roster out of ST. If he shows he's ready, I think Ramon could be dealt for something decent at the deadline.

Good point and it's also very likely a 3rd catcher will be needed.Hernandez and Hanigan both seem to miss a good portion of every season with some kind of injury, although I wouldn't mind the Corkster being brought back for one more year.He doesn't seem to mind hanging around in AAA until he's needed.

corkedbat
10-20-2010, 12:44 AM
Good point and it's also very likely a 3rd catcher will be needed.Hernandez and Hanigan both seem to miss a good portion of every season with some kind of injury, although I wouldn't mind the Corkster being brought back for one more year.He doesn't seem to mind hanging around in AAA until he's needed.

Yeah, I kinda think for some reason that it would be easier to bring back Ramon and if you deal him at the deadline, explain that you're bringing up Mes because it's time and you're dealing him to give him a chance to play, than to sign someone else as a FA then deal him after 2 or 3 months.

I agree about Corky. I definitely would feel better with him in L'Ville in case of injury. I'd offer him a coaching spot if one is open after this year too.

Captain Hook
10-20-2010, 12:48 AM
As should be expected, the more games Hanigan plays as the season moves along, the less effective he'll be at the plate as is the norm (and his defense will be exemplary anyway). He needs Ramon there to competently back him up or visa-versa. I think the tandem of Hernandez and Hanigan worked perfectly this year and I see nothing to make me believe any change should be made. The kid is a kid. He may come up and be a star, but that is unlikely. Potential is great, but another year would give us a better idea of what we've got.

He wore down two years ago after having to catch every single game in the middle of the sumer and everyone thinks he can't handle a heavier work load..300/.405/.429/.834 in 2010 is pretty good and deserves more then 203 ABs next year.I'm not saying Dusty should play him every single game, but he should be the primary catcher IMO.I like Ramone, but I just think he's unnecessary when you consider that the teams best C prospect tore up all levels of minor league pitchering he saw last year.

Brutus
10-20-2010, 12:50 AM
I too am a little uneasy about relying on Mesoraco this early. If the Reds add him to the roster, it will have to be as the second catcher (since he actually doesn't have to be protected, thereby burning an option year). So it only makes sense to add him if he's going to be on the active roster. If you do that, you better be sure he'll give you the production you want.

corkedbat
10-20-2010, 12:56 AM
I too am a little uneasy about relying on Mesoraco this early. If the Reds add him to the roster, it will have to be as the second catcher (since he actually doesn't have to be protected, thereby burning an option year). So it only makes sense to add him if he's going to be on the active roster. If you do that, you better be sure he'll give you the production you want.

The way I see it, you lose nothing by bringing Ramon back (or bringing another catcher in) for Spring Traing. You need extra catchers anyway. If Mes has a standout spring and forces his way onto the roser, fine, Ramon's coming off a year that should make him marketable and someone's always looking for catching depth.

Mes is coming off what? A month of AAA, part of which was spent on the DL? Unless he kciks te door in in ST, some more timme in AAA would not hurt. I see no reason to rush him either, I'm quite willing to go with Hanny's production at the plate and behind it.

Captain Hook
10-20-2010, 12:57 AM
I'm ok with leaving good enough alone and I know Ramone won't be breaking the bank next season.Maybe things will be different this offseason but if at some point we're talking about losing out on a top LF because of 2-3 million we just don't have(we're able to offer 7 million when FA LF wants 10)then I think there's a bunch of us that wouldn't mind us taking our chances with Mesoraco.

WVRedsFan
10-20-2010, 01:18 AM
I'm ok with leaving good enough alone and I know Ramone won't be breaking the bank next season.Maybe things will be different this offseason but if at some point we're talking about losing out on a top LF because of 2-3 million we just don't have(we're able to offer 7 million when FA LF wants 10)then I think there's a bunch of us that wouldn't mind us taking our chances with Mesoraco.You can bet the bank that Gomes will be wandering around LF next year. I don't see many changes, so Ramon won't be the cause of the lack of any acquisitions. Jay Bruce, if he is indeed eligible for arbitration will be the stumbling block and I have no problem with that. I think a trade for one of our young stud pitchers is more likely and I really dont want to part with any of them.

Captain Hook
10-20-2010, 01:26 AM
You can bet the bank that Gomes will be wandering around LF next year. I don't see many changes, so Ramon won't be the cause of the lack of any acquisitions. Jay Bruce, if he is indeed eligible for arbitration will be the stumbling block and I have no problem with that. I think a trade for one of our young stud pitchers is more likely and I really dont want to part with any of them.

That's hilarious.

Your right about at least one thing,at some point he probably will.I just hope that he stays healthy all year and only gets around 200 ABs.

mth123
10-20-2010, 03:39 AM
Based on his year, I guess bringing Ramon back is probably a given, but I expect that he is likely to suffer a drop of 75 to 100 points in OPS from 2010, and IMO, his defense is ho hum, the staff is noticelbly less effective when he's behind the plate and he's an ever increasing injury risk. He had a pretty good season in 2010 but banking on a repeat at age 35 is foolish and the improvement that he would bring to the staff would more than make up from the drop in offense we'd see by having Hanigan get 70 to 80% of the starts (with Corky backing him up) until Mesoraco is ready. If the goal is to replicate 2010 prouction from the catching spot, I'd say Hanigan getting the lion's share of the first half duty with Mes shouldering the load in the second half is more likley to replicate that production than a Ramon/Hanigan tandem would. See 2007 through 2009 as evidence as to why I believe expecting a repeat from Ramon is foolish.

I'd be ok with following the Bengie Molina/Buster Posey model and bringing Ramon back and shipping him off mid-season if Mes is ready, but no one should expect to see 2010 Ramon back with the Reds whether the team re-signs him or not.

Ron Madden
10-20-2010, 04:38 AM
As should be expected, the more games Hanigan plays as the season moves along, the less effective he'll be at the plate as is the norm (and his defense will be exemplary anyway). He needs Ramon there to competently back him up or visa-versa. I think the tandem of Hernandez and Hanigan worked perfectly this year and I see nothing to make me believe any change should be made. The kid is a kid. He may come up and be a star, but that is unlikely. Potential is great, but another year would give us a better idea of what we've got.

Ryan Hanigan was born 8-16-80.

He aint a kid anymore but I honestly believe Hanigan is FAR better than Hernandez is defensively and does a better job working with the pitching staff.

JMHO

Ron Madden
10-20-2010, 05:04 AM
I believe Gomes and Hernandez will be back in 2011. I'd be OK with that if they were used properly but Dusty believes they are dependable RBI guys.

If indeed they do return for 2011 Dusty will give both of them too many ABs.

RFS62
10-20-2010, 06:52 AM
Mesoraco still needs to play everyday to continue to develop, IMO.

I'd be surprised if Walt brings him up until he is sure he's going to get a lot of playing time.

Boss-Hog
10-20-2010, 07:03 AM
I'd be fine with that if the scouts truly think Mesoraco is ready for the role you've described - of course, they may also be of the belief not to bring him up to sit on the bench the majority of the time. I certainly wouldn't mind saving a few million by cutting ties with Ramon if that's the case, but I wouldn't do it if it negatively affected Mesoraco's development. My preference is still for him to start in AAA since there's no reason to rush him and whatever we pay Ramon is unlikely to be the difference in signing/trading for a difference maker. If it was, I'd obviously feel differently. The way I see it, I expect his salary to be reasonable for the insurance he gives you for 2011.


I'm one that believes that Hanigan can handle starting the majority of the games.As a catcher he's still going to need some time off though, so it's not like a rookie is going to waste away on the bench but it's also not like we'd be counting on Mesoraco a ton.I've liked what Romon has brought to the team the last few years and while I don't promote salary dumping I don't think letting him go hurts us(Hanigan is that good).What it does is, frees up some money to be spent in areas that the team doesn't have any young guys that are beating on the door for big league playing time.

Edd Roush
10-20-2010, 10:05 AM
Mesoraco still needs to play everyday to continue to develop, IMO.

I'd be surprised if Walt brings him up until he is sure he's going to get a lot of playing time.

Exactly, I like what the Giants did with their catching situation this year. Let Posey tear the cover off the ball in AAA and let him force his way into the Giants line-up. Then you deal your veteran catcher away and let your stud catcher play 2/3s of the games. IMO, the Reds should do this with Mes.

dfs
10-20-2010, 10:25 AM
IIRC one of the reasons Walt specifically brought in Hernandez was because he spoke Spanish and would be a good influence on the latin pitching staff.

Since being brought over Hernandez has hit above league average for a catcher and he has not been a disaster behind the plate. More importantly the reds pitching staff has moved from being a negative to being a positive. Both Volquez and Cueto are thought of as young developing talents and their catcher is Hernandez.

On top of all that, the reds invested an extraordinary amount in a talented 21 year old Cuban who needs all kind of help.

I can't imagine a world in which they don't bring Ramon back. I believe they would trade Mesoraco first (and I don't think that's very likely either.)

Redsfan320
10-20-2010, 11:17 AM
Exactly, I like what the Giants did with their catching situation this year. Let Posey tear the cover off the ball in AAA and let him force his way into the Giants line-up. Then you deal your veteran catcher away and let your stud catcher play 2/3s of the games. IMO, the Reds should do this with Mes.

Another side of this is that Hanigan is a much better all-year back up to Herneraco (not as good as Hernanigan, but you know) than Eli Whiteside was for the Giants.

320

Redsfan320
10-20-2010, 11:18 AM
Oh, and BTW, Buster Posey is probably my favorite non-Reds player. Having a name like "Buster" is a good start.

320

bucksfan2
10-20-2010, 11:25 AM
Exactly, I like what the Giants did with their catching situation this year. Let Posey tear the cover off the ball in AAA and let him force his way into the Giants line-up. Then you deal your veteran catcher away and let your stud catcher play 2/3s of the games. IMO, the Reds should do this with Mes.

My thoughts as well.

Chip R
10-20-2010, 11:43 AM
I can't imagine a world in which they don't bring Ramon back.


Because he's a year older and - with the exception of Bob Boone and the two Pudges - catchers do not age well. As Branch Rickey used to say, better to trade a guy a year too early than a year too late.

But I understand your thinking and believe the Reds will bring him back.

camisadelgolf
10-20-2010, 12:08 PM
Because he's a year older and - with the exception of Bob Boone and the two Pudges - catchers do not age well. As Branch Rickey used to say, better to trade a guy a year too early than a year too late.

But I understand your thinking and believe the Reds will bring him back.
Branch Rickey's quote applies to trades; free agents are a completely different animal imo. If you sign a free agent who performs poorly, you only lose cash. If you don't trade a guy while he still has trade value, you lose cash and whatever you could have gotten for him in return.

But I agree with your premise--catchers generally don't age very well.

dfs
10-20-2010, 12:19 PM
Because he's a year older and - with the exception of Bob Boone and the two Pudges - catchers do not age well.

FWIW Ramon would be the oldest starting catcher that a Jocketty team has ever fielded.
Wouldn't bother me if they gave him 60 starts and Hanigan 100 and put Mesoraco in AAA for the year.

Like most of the reds free agents to be, my negotiating strategy would be to look the player in the eye and say "How much do you want to be here?" making it clear that anybody who expected a serious free agent contract or guarantee of playing time would be shopping their services and most likely playing elsewhere next year.

That's what I would do. I think Walt will bring Ramon back.

medford
10-20-2010, 12:28 PM
Oh, and BTW, Buster Posey is probably my favorite non-Reds player. Having a name like "Buster" is a good start.

320

You work for ESPN? :)

Chip R
10-20-2010, 12:39 PM
You work for ESPN? :)


Or the Bluth Company?

_Sir_Charles_
10-20-2010, 01:17 PM
Counting stat rankings are silly when the primary complaint is that a guy got way more PA than he deserved.

I realize that, but my point is that maybe we're going a bit overboard on what he DESERVED and what he didn't. Yes, he got a lot of PA's....but in general, he produced with them. Maybe not as much as we wanted or in the manner in which we wanted...but he was far from the train wreck some are making him out to be.

The Operator
10-20-2010, 01:28 PM
Or the Bluth Company?

Sadly, Buster Bluth's catching career was ruined after the "Loose Seal" accident:

http://thedefeatists.typepad.com/apoplectic/images/buster_bluth.jpg

RedsManRick
10-20-2010, 03:47 PM
I realize that, but my point is that maybe we're going a bit overboard on what he DESERVED and what he didn't. Yes, he got a lot of PA's....but in general, he produced with them. Maybe not as much as we wanted or in the manner in which we wanted...but he was far from the train wreck some are making him out to be.

I don't think anybody is asserting that he was a complete train wreck offensively. What he did was show that he wasn't the elite hitter some people thought he was coming off the heels of his 2009 season.

He reinforced the reality that he's an extreme platoon hitter (.856 OPS vL, .709 vR) and was incredibly streaky, doing the bulk of his damage in a single month (1.056 OPS in May, below .750 every other month). I don't see any predictive value in monthly splits, but the platoon split is very well-established and should not be expected to go away.

The counting stats are just a bit frustrating because they are misleading. Our inclination is to treat counting stats like the baseline for comparison is 0. But the appropriate baseline is what a replacement level hitter would have done given the same opportunities. Unfortunately, we don't have those numbers, so the numbers he put up seem more impressive than they are.

In any event, a player of his defensive abilities needs to be a very good hitter to provide solid production. Gomes is a very good hitter against lefties, but a very mediocre one against righties. Against righties, Gomes provides negative value and that's a problem at any price.

OnBaseMachine
10-21-2010, 02:56 PM
From Mark Sheldon - Reds payroll to increase a little bit


"Offensively, we might like a true leadoff hitter or another run producer," general manager Walt Jocketty said. "We will try to refine what we have."


http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101021&content_id=15764128&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin&partnerId=rss_cin

Sheldon goes on to mention Scott Podsednik and Coco Crisp as candidates. Podsednik? Ugh. Crisp is a decent player but I like him more as a 4th outfielder.

Cedric
10-21-2010, 03:05 PM
From Mark Sheldon - Reds payroll to increase a little bit



http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101021&content_id=15764128&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin&partnerId=rss_cin

Sheldon goes on to mention Scott Podsednik and Coco Crisp as candidates. Podsednik? Ugh. Crisp is a decent player but I like him more as a 4th outfielder.

This is awesome news, IMO. You RARELY hear Jocketty speak publicly about player acquisitions and what targets he might have. I can't imagine he doesn't accomplish filling both of these major weak spots in the lineup.

camisadelgolf
10-21-2010, 03:25 PM
Don't get your hopes up too high. Before the 2009 season, he said the #1 priority was to obtain a big bopper for left field. Who did he obtain for left field? Laynce Nix, Jonny Gomes, Wes Bankston, and Darnell McDonald.

Homer Bailey
10-21-2010, 04:13 PM
I'd be fine with Coco Crisp.

Cedric
10-21-2010, 04:20 PM
Don't get your hopes up too high. Before the 2009 season, he said the #1 priority was to obtain a big bopper for left field. Who did he obtain for left field? Laynce Nix, Jonny Gomes, Wes Bankston, and Darnell McDonald.

True. Though the Reds are a much better destination today than they were in 2009 for a myriad of reasons.

edabbs44
10-21-2010, 05:04 PM
Don't get your hopes up too high. Before the 2009 season, he said the #1 priority was to obtain a big bopper for left field. Who did he obtain for left field? Laynce Nix, Jonny Gomes, Wes Bankston, and Darnell McDonald.

Dependant upon who was available for a reasonable price, that might have been quite a haul. He could have listened to some on here and traded Homer for Dye.

He understands what the team needs...I am sure he'll get someone if the price is right. But I'd rather not make a dumb trade just because he panics because he "has" to get a leaf off hitter who plays LF.

WVRedsFan
10-21-2010, 05:42 PM
I'd be fine with Coco Crisp.Yeah, but with our budget, we'd probably have to settle for Coco Wheats.

;)

Edd Roush
10-21-2010, 06:29 PM
I'd be fine with Coco Crisp.

Would he be above average defensively in left? If so, how much? His bat does seem passable at the top of the line-up, but I'm guessing his true value to the team would come through his glove.

flyer85
10-21-2010, 07:11 PM
Gomes had a WAR of -0.1 on the season

Captain Hook
10-21-2010, 07:18 PM
True. Though the Reds are a much better destination today than they were in 2009 for a myriad of reasons.

Very good point.

It's possible that this offseason teams will have to pay more then the Reds would to get some of the better free agents instead of it being the other way around.I know in the end money is usually the driving factor, but for the first time in a while the Reds are a better option then more the half the other teams in baseball for guys interested in winning and that actually have the skill to help contribute to that winning.

TheNext44
10-21-2010, 07:40 PM
At this point last season, Jocketty said that there would be no bump in payroll at all, maybe even a cut. There ended up being a slight bump, around 5%. A 10% increase this season would put the payroll at around $83M. I can't imagine it would be any less than that.

Ghosts of 1990
10-21-2010, 08:42 PM
Just did an hour long interview with Jay Bruce's agent. I'm really excited to share it with you guys first--especially what he said about the Reds locking up Jay Bruce long-term. Good stuff.

Ghosts of 1990
10-21-2010, 08:49 PM
Here is the interview guys: http://www.diamondhoggers.com/2010/10/baseball-show-mlb-agent-matt-sosnick.html

Enjoy. Lots of good stuff in there.

I(heart)Freel
10-21-2010, 10:50 PM
Nice interview, but I found the Upton contract (as a Bruce contract "starting point") as wishful agent thinking.

Upton:

# 6 years/$51.25M (2010-15)

* signed extension with Arizona 3/3/10
* $1.25M signing bonus
* 10:$0.5M, 11:$4.25M, 12:$6.75M, 13:$9.75M, 14:$14.25M, 15:$14.5M

Seems high to me, right now. If Bruce beats the world next year and becomes the run-producer we think he will, then maybe that contract isn't out of whack next off-season. But right now, I'm not so sure that's a good idea for a Reds club.

RedsManRick
10-22-2010, 12:35 AM
FWIW, Bruce's production last year was worth $20M on the free agent market. If he simply continues to put up 5 win seasons, those Upton figures would make him quite the bargain. For reference, Bruce's 5.2 WAR last year is equal to Adam Dunn's career high from 2004.

That he still has room to improve suggests just how freaking talented the guy is.

fearofpopvol1
10-22-2010, 12:55 AM
Count me in the camp that would be more than fine with an Upton type deal for Bruce. 6 year extension; $51M? Sign me up.

kaldaniels
10-22-2010, 12:56 AM
FWIW, Bruce's production last year was worth $20M on the free agent market. If he simply continues to put up 5 win seasons, those Upton figures would make him quite the bargain. For reference, Bruce's 5.2 WAR last year is equal to Adam Dunn's career high from 2004.

That he still has room to improve suggests just how freaking talented the guy is.

You wrote nothing but the reported facts Rick so I don't direct this at you.

I get that Jay Bruce is a great player. I love him, and in all honestly if I had to choose between Votto and Bruce...it would be a tough choice.

But I don't believe that if you put Jay's 2010 season on the free agent market this winter, it would fetch 20 million.

I like to throw around the value figures that I get from fangraphs myself...but perhaps we should not take those numbers as gospel? It seems as if they trend high...perhaps it is because in the real world, salarys are lowered due to injury risk, while on fangraphs we are looking at stats where there is no injury risk?

TheNext44
10-22-2010, 01:46 AM
You wrote nothing but the reported facts Rick so I don't direct this at you.

I get that Jay Bruce is a great player. I love him, and in all honestly if I had to choose between Votto and Bruce...it would be a tough choice.

But I don't believe that if you put Jay's 2010 season on the free agent market this winter, it would fetch 20 million.

I like to throw around the value figures that I get from fangraphs myself...but perhaps we should not take those numbers as gospel? It seems as if they trend high...perhaps it is because in the real world, salarys are lowered due to injury risk, while on fangraphs we are looking at stats where there is no injury risk?

The dollar value that fangraphs puts on its website are meant to literally mean what that player is expected to earn on the free agent market. It just represents what he should earn, if teams only used WAR to determine salaries.

They simply take his WAR and multiply it by what they calculated the free agent market on average pays for each win. There obviously are many other factors, like what you mentioned, that go into how much a free agent actually gets on the open market, so those numbers on fangraohs shouldn't be used as projections.

They are best used to see how well a team best allocates its resources and how well they work within their payflex. And, of course, they are fun. :-)

corkedbat
10-22-2010, 03:27 AM
Count me in the camp that would be more than fine with an Upton type deal for Bruce. 6 year extension; $51M? Sign me up.

Agreed about Bruce.

If Walt wants a leadoff hitter, go hard after Drew @ SS and leave the corner spot in left for a power guy.

Ron Madden
10-22-2010, 04:17 AM
I'd love to see Stephen Drew playing SS for the Reds.

Then again we have to look at the situation realistically. Being a small market club with two obvious areas of concern, LF and SS. Walt's main job is to acquire the most amount of talent for the least amount of money.

Walt has a cheap option at SS with gold glove potential in Paul Janish. For that reason I believe Walt will focus on making an upgrade in LF.

Since almost anyone would be an upgrade from Gomes defensively Walt can go one of two ways, he could go after a lead off hitter or a big bat for the middle of the lineup. I honestly don't know what he'll do but I hope he doesn't sign Scott Podsednik.

Brutus
10-22-2010, 04:30 AM
You wrote nothing but the reported facts Rick so I don't direct this at you.

I get that Jay Bruce is a great player. I love him, and in all honestly if I had to choose between Votto and Bruce...it would be a tough choice.

But I don't believe that if you put Jay's 2010 season on the free agent market this winter, it would fetch 20 million.

I like to throw around the value figures that I get from fangraphs myself...but perhaps we should not take those numbers as gospel? It seems as if they trend high...perhaps it is because in the real world, salarys are lowered due to injury risk, while on fangraphs we are looking at stats where there is no injury risk?

TheNext44 answers this pretty well....


The dollar value that fangraphs puts on its website are meant to literally mean what that player is expected to earn on the free agent market. It just represents what he should earn, if teams only used WAR to determine salaries.

They simply take his WAR and multiply it by what they calculated the free agent market on average pays for each win. There obviously are many other factors, like what you mentioned, that go into how much a free agent actually gets on the open market, so those numbers on fangraohs shouldn't be used as projections.

They are best used to see how well a team best allocates its resources and how well they work within their payflex. And, of course, they are fun. :-)

It basically means what a player is worth, given the amount of dollars available and the number of win shares available to an entire league. We know each year there will be a set number of wins in the regular season. We can estimate how many dollars will be spent on payroll, and we also know the bottom dollar a player can earn is $400,000 while in the Majors. So putting two and two together, the Fangraphs dollars is basically a gauge at how much the player is worth, based on the portion of wins he accrued in WAR during that season.

bucksfan2
10-22-2010, 08:33 AM
You wrote nothing but the reported facts Rick so I don't direct this at you.

I get that Jay Bruce is a great player. I love him, and in all honestly if I had to choose between Votto and Bruce...it would be a tough choice.

But I don't believe that if you put Jay's 2010 season on the free agent market this winter, it would fetch 20 million.

I like to throw around the value figures that I get from fangraphs myself...but perhaps we should not take those numbers as gospel? It seems as if they trend high...perhaps it is because in the real world, salarys are lowered due to injury risk, while on fangraphs we are looking at stats where there is no injury risk?

If I had to choose between Votto and Bruce its a no brainier right now. Its Votto and I wouldn't even think twice.

I just don't get the "we can't afford Jay" "Jay is going to be a superstar" "Jay needs to be locked up ASAP", etc. Don't get me wrong Jay had a great finish to his season, but as of the end of July Jay was in a horrific slump. As of July 31st his OPS stood at .749. Lets not go head over heals about him going gang busters over the last two months. IMO his overall numbers are a little skewed because of his 15 HR's in the final two months and WAR's value placed on D. 2 great months does not make a season. Heck in the middle of July there was talk about sending him down to AAA in order to get his swing back.

Chip R
10-22-2010, 10:22 AM
If I had to choose between Votto and Bruce its a no brainier right now. Its Votto and I wouldn't even think twice.

I just don't get the "we can't afford Jay" "Jay is going to be a superstar" "Jay needs to be locked up ASAP", etc. Don't get me wrong Jay had a great finish to his season, but as of the end of July Jay was in a horrific slump. As of July 31st his OPS stood at .749. Lets not go head over heals about him going gang busters over the last two months. IMO his overall numbers are a little skewed because of his 15 HR's in the final two months and WAR's value placed on D. 2 great months does not make a season. Heck in the middle of July there was talk about sending him down to AAA in order to get his swing back.


Indeed. I love Jay but let's see him put together a good full season at the plate before we start talking about LTDs.

Homer Bailey
10-22-2010, 10:26 AM
Indeed. I love Jay but let's see him put together a good full season at the plate before we start talking about LTDs.

You mean like a 5 win season? Would that be a good full season.

In my opinion, it would be borderline insane not to lock up Bruce long-term this offseason. Guy just had an .850 OPS season with GG defense.... as a 23 year old. In Joey Votto's age 23 season, he was putting up an .859 OPS in Louisville.

Lock. Him. Up.

Homer Bailey
10-22-2010, 10:29 AM
If I had to choose between Votto and Bruce its a no brainier right now. Its Votto and I wouldn't even think twice.

I just don't get the "we can't afford Jay" "Jay is going to be a superstar" "Jay needs to be locked up ASAP", etc. Don't get me wrong Jay had a great finish to his season, but as of the end of July Jay was in a horrific slump. As of July 31st his OPS stood at .749. Lets not go head over heals about him going gang busters over the last two months. IMO his overall numbers are a little skewed because of his 15 HR's in the final two months and WAR's value placed on D. 2 great months does not make a season. Heck in the middle of July there was talk about sending him down to AAA in order to get his swing back.

So 15 home runs skews his season? Do you have any idea how difficult it is to hit 15 home runs in the time frame that he did it in? How can one even begin to describe that as fluky?

And since when did a half seasons worth of numbers outweigh a full seasons worth? I don't care what his OPS was at July 31. He finished the season with an .846 OPS, and only 5 players in the NL had a better 2nd half OPS than he had.

You are also choosing to ignore the time period that it typically takes a player to heal from a wrist injury. Right about the time that Bruce passed the 1 year mark of the anniversary of breaking his wrist was the time that his game really took off.

Plus Plus
10-22-2010, 10:31 AM
You mean like a 5 win season? Would that be a good full season.

In my opinion, it would be borderline insane not to lock up Bruce long-term this offseason. Guy just had an .850 OPS season with GG defense.... as a 23 year old. In Joey Votto's age 23 season, he was putting up an .859 OPS in Louisville.

Lock. Him. Up.

A 5-win season based largely on huge defensive contributions and a HR/FB% of 28.6% in August and 41.2% in September/October is a little misleading though, especially when one considers that his season HR/FB% was 15.3%.

I agree with bucksfan2 in this regard. I love Bruce as a player and am very happy that he is in Cincinnati Red, but a $50m contract in the mold of Justin Upton is a bit premature, imo. Lots of players can play great defense and OPS ~.750 like Bruce was at the end of July...

Give it until June or something before offering a contract extension. Make sure that he isn't playing like the Jay Bruce that a large number of people wanted sent to AAA any longer.

Caveat Emperor
10-22-2010, 10:41 AM
IMO his overall numbers are a little skewed because of his 15 HR's in the final two months and WAR's value placed on D. 2 great months does not make a season. Heck in the middle of July there was talk about sending him down to AAA in order to get his swing back.

Jay Bruce's OPS jumped from .508 in July to 1.025 in August. He improved to 1.183 in Sept/Oct. That's over 150 PAs of high-pressure, pennant race baseball at MVP levels. I agree with taking the numbers for what they're worth, but it's hard to ignore a player who has the pedigree of a Jay Bruce (former #1 prospect in all of baseball) and can turn it on when the season is hanging in the balance.

I like Jay Bruce. I think the team should be looking to do a deal now that bypasses his arb years and buys out some free agency because he's a young ballplayer just scratching the surface of his skills (meaning they can buy out age-prime years) and will only get more expensive if they wait.

Incidentally, Jim Edmonds was acquired by the Reds on August 9th, 2010. Jay Bruce was 5-23 w/ 0 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 8Ks and 1 XBH in the 7 games in August leading up to that date -- good for a .217 / .280 / .261 slash-line. This was, as indicated earlier, coming on the heels of a July where he posted a similarly-anemic .508 OPS.

After Edmonds was acquired, Bruce went on to go 22-58 w/ 8 HR, 15 RBI, 9 BB, 13K, and a slash-line of .379 / .456 / .828 for the rest of August.

You can draw your own conclusions from those numbers, but I repeat my assertion that any discussion of Jay Bruce should include attempts to coax Edmonds into playing 1 more season.

chicoruiz
10-22-2010, 10:43 AM
So, if you're Juan Francisco, why aren't you in winter ball trying to become at least an acceptable left fielder? You're a left-handed power bat in an organization that has an opening for one in LF. If you could play 60 games in left and another 40 or so filling in for Rolen, heck, that's almost a regular. I mean, maybe you can't learn to be a left fielder, but if I were him I'd at least try.

It drives me crazy when guys who are marginal to make the team don't take an objective look at the team and figure out where the holes they could possibly fill are.

Homer Bailey
10-22-2010, 10:47 AM
A 5-win season based largely on huge defensive contributions and a HR/FB% of 28.6% in August and 41.2% in September/October is a little misleading though, especially when one considers that his season HR/FB% was 15.3%.

I agree with bucksfan2 in this regard. I love Bruce as a player and am very happy that he is in Cincinnati Red, but a $50m contract in the mold of Justin Upton is a bit premature, imo. Lots of players can play great defense and OPS ~.750 like Bruce was at the end of July...

Give it until June or something before offering a contract extension. Make sure that he isn't playing like the Jay Bruce that a large number of people wanted sent to AAA any longer.

Jay was 25th in wOBA in the NL this year, and exactly one player (Jason Heyward) was older than him. Jocketty has said himself that he doesn't like discussing contracts mid-season, so going to arbitration with him now means you are going to have to wait until the end of next season to lock him up, and what happens if he OPS's .900 this year? You realize how much more money that is going to cost the Reds? Add in the fact that he will be one year closer to free agency, and you've got a problem.

I think 6 years/$50M would actually be a bargain.

bucksfan2
10-22-2010, 10:47 AM
So 15 home runs skews his season? Do you have any idea how difficult it is to hit 15 home runs in the time frame that he did it in? How can one even begin to describe that as fluky?

And since when did a half seasons worth of numbers outweigh a full seasons worth? I don't care what his OPS was at July 31. He finished the season with an .846 OPS, and only 5 players in the NL had a better 2nd half OPS than he had.

You are also choosing to ignore the time period that it typically takes a player to heal from a wrist injury. Right about the time that Bruce passed the 1 year mark of the anniversary of breaking his wrist was the time that his game really took off.

There were talks in June and July about sending Bruce down to AAA to help with his swing. Am I ready to roll out the red carpet, sign Jay to a long term deal when I was ready to send him to AAA just a few months ago?

I am choosing to look at Jay's entire season. His entire body of work. His OPS was largely driven by a hot two months of the season. 15 HR's in those two months when he had 10 prior to that. Does that mean they are flukes? No it doesn't, but at the same time I am not going to pay a premium for two great months. I want to see him put up an entire full season before I decide to extend him long term, especially when I have Joey Votto who is more deserving of a long term contract.

As for the 5 WAR I don't really like WAR as a stat. We have talked about it ad nauseum but I can't put full faith in a stat that relies heavily on defensive metrics. Jay Bruce is a great defender don't get me wrong I just can't rely on a stat that is so heavily influenced by a flawed metric.

FWIW the vast majority of Jay's Aug/Sept HR's came against bad ball clubs. He tore up Houston, Milwaukee, and Arizona. Of course they all count the same but something that deserves being looked at. Heck there were many people who discounted Homer Bailey because of his outings against bad clubs in 09.

kaldaniels
10-22-2010, 10:49 AM
I saw something in Jay Bruce over the past 2 months that I can't for the life of me chalk up to flukiness. Get it done Walt.

Chip R
10-22-2010, 10:54 AM
Jay Bruce's OPS jumped from .508 in July to 1.025 in August. He improved to 1.183 in Sept/Oct. That's over 150 PAs of high-pressure, pennant race baseball at MVP levels. I agree with taking the numbers for what they're worth, but it's hard to ignore a player who has the pedigree of a Jay Bruce (former #1 prospect in all of baseball) and can turn it on when the season is hanging in the balance.

True enough but the Reds were playing the likes of the DBacks, Pirates, Brewers, Cubs and Astros. Plus, the Reds weren't exactly being challenged too much by StL. That's not diminishing what he did but I think we as fans look for a little more consistancy. He was gangbusters at the end of 2009 too but started off slow.


I like Jay Bruce. I think the team should be looking to do a deal now that bypasses his arb years and buys out some free agency because he's a young ballplayer just scratching the surface of his skills (meaning they can buy out age-prime years) and will only get more expensive if they wait.

That's true too but, again, l want to see him sustain his August/September performances for an entire season before I start talking about buying out arbitration and FA years.


Incidentally, Jim Edmonds was acquired by the Reds on August 9th, 2010. Jay Bruce was 5-23 w/ 0 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB and 1 XBH in the 7 games in August leading up to that date -- good for a .217 / .280 / .261 slash-line. This was, as indicated earlier, coming on the heels of a July where he posted a similarly-anemic .508 OPS.

After Edmonds was acquired, Bruce went on to go 22-58 w/ 8 HR, 15 RBI, 9 BB, 13K, and a slash-line of .379 / .456 / .828 for the rest of August.

You can draw your own conclusions from those numbers, but I repeat my assertion that any discussion of Jay Bruce should include attempts to coax Edmonds into playing 1 more season.

Having Edmonds around might be a good thing but I don't want a gimpy 40 year old taking up a roster spot if his only contribution is to give Jay Bruce hitting advice. If he's so important to Jay's success, make him a Special Assistant to the GM and have him hang with Jay before games and during ST.

Caveat Emperor
10-22-2010, 10:54 AM
I want to see him put up an entire full season before I decide to extend him long term, especially when I have Joey Votto who is more deserving of a long term contract.

Votto's an interesting name to bring up. If the Reds could've worked a deal with him last off-season, they might have received some kind of discount for investing in a guy who had off-field personal issues that resulted in missed games.

Now, Votto's bringing MVP hardware into his Arbitration hearing, and he's poised to take the Reds to the cleaners on any deal they end up working out.

Bruce is a similar situation. The Reds can buy "lower" now, and invest in him before he proves that he deserves big money. Once he posts a full season of numbers (if he does), the Reds will potentially have missed their window of opportunity to lock him in at below-market value.

It's all well-and good to be in "show me" mode, but the Reds can't afford to buy sure things all the time.

Homer Bailey
10-22-2010, 10:57 AM
There were talks in June and July about sending Bruce down to AAA to help with his swing. Am I ready to roll out the red carpet, sign Jay to a long term deal when I was ready to send him to AAA just a few months ago?

Where were there talks? No rational person was ready to send a .750 OPS 23 year old with GG defense down to the minor leagues. Sure it may have been discussed on a message board, but that was never, ever, ever an option.


I am choosing to look at Jay's entire season. His entire body of work. His OPS was largely driven by a hot two months of the season.

I had to laugh here. You claim to be looking at his entire season, yet you condradict yourself by saying he had two hot months. Bruce OPS'd at least .800 in 6 of the 7 months of the season. In actuallity, your opinion is based on one bad month.

April: .833
May: .827
June: .824
July: .508
August: 1.076
September: 1.025
October: 1.944 (9 AB's)


15 HR's in those two months when he had 10 prior to that. Does that mean they are flukes? No it doesn't, but at the same time I am not going to pay a premium for two great months. I want to see him put up an entire full season before I decide to extend him long term, especially when I have Joey Votto who is more deserving of a long term contract.

He did put up an entire full season. He had one bad month.


As for the 5 WAR I don't really like WAR as a stat. We have talked about it ad nauseum but I can't put full faith in a stat that relies heavily on defensive metrics. Jay Bruce is a great defender don't get me wrong I just can't rely on a stat that is so heavily influenced by a flawed metric.

I don't disagree here. I think WAR overvalues defense. However, it's got to value defense somehow, and Bruce was simply magical out there this year. The guy got to everything.


FWIW the vast majority of Jay's Aug/Sept HR's came against bad ball clubs. He tore up Houston, Milwaukee, and Arizona. Of course they all count the same but something that deserves being looked at. Heck there were many people who discounted Homer Bailey because of his outings against bad clubs in 09.

How many times are the Reds going to play those teams over the next 6 years? Hundreds?

camisadelgolf
10-22-2010, 10:59 AM
So, if you're Juan Francisco, why aren't you in winter ball trying to become at least an acceptable left fielder? You're a left-handed power bat in an organization that has an opening for one in LF. If you could play 60 games in left and another 40 or so filling in for Rolen, heck, that's almost a regular. I mean, maybe you can't learn to be a left fielder, but if I were him I'd at least try.

It drives me crazy when guys who are marginal to make the team don't take an objective look at the team and figure out where the holes they could possibly fill are.
First of all, it's not always up to the player to play in certain winter ball leagues. Each team is allotted a certain number of players they can send to winter ball.

Second of all, why would you imply he isn't trying to learn left field? In addition to game experience in left field while in Louisville, I know for a fact that he spent a lot of time out there while in Arizona. And for all you know, the Reds could have told him that learning in the outfield isn't worth the effort for him.

Third of all, how do you know he isn't playing winter ball in the Dominican? I haven't seen a press release with the official DWL rosters. And even if he isn't playing in the DWL, there are many amateur leagues he could be participating in back home.

Fourth of all, maybe he has a personal life. He's a foreigner spending nearly the entire year away from his family. He travels frequently and goes through a lot of physical stress for his job. I don't think it's unfair to let him have a chance to take a break, rest his body, and see his family once a year.

Homer Bailey
10-22-2010, 10:59 AM
Votto's an interesting name to bring up. If the Reds could've worked a deal with him last off-season, they might have received some kind of discount for investing in a guy who had off-field personal issues that resulted in missed games.

Now, Votto's bringing MVP hardware into his Arbitration hearing, and he's poised to take the Reds to the cleaners on any deal they end up working out.

Bruce is a similar situation. The Reds can buy "lower" now, and invest in him before he proves that he deserves big money. Once he posts a full season of numbers (if he does), the Reds will potentially have missed their window of opportunity to lock him in at below-market value.

It's all well-and good to be in "show me" mode, but the Reds can't afford to buy sure things all the time.

This. I was pro "Lock Up Votto" last off-season, and the Reds dropped the ball there. Can't afford to make the same mistake again.

kaldaniels
10-22-2010, 11:03 AM
Just remember, "locking someone up" is always a 2-way street. Just because you and the Reds want to do it, doesn't mean it can/will happen.

Caveat Emperor
10-22-2010, 11:05 AM
True enough but the Reds were playing the likes of the DBacks, Pirates, Brewers, Cubs and Astros. Plus, the Reds weren't exactly being challenged too much by StL. That's not diminishing what he did but I think we as fans look for a little more consistancy. He was gangbusters at the end of 2009 too but started off slow.

Every AB is a clutch AB when you're pushing for the playoffs for the first time in 15 years. I get that St. Louis collapsed and made most of it a non-issue, but it's still meaningful late-season PAs at high-level performance. I put some stock in that. There's a difference between playing the Pirates when you're just looking to finish out the season and head home for winter vacation and playing the Pirates when you're closing out a magic number to hit the post season.


That's true too but, again, l want to see him sustain his August/September performances for an entire season before I start talking about buying out arbitration and FA years.

Again, a position I respect, but if the Reds want to hang on to their young nucleus of players, they probably don't have the luxury of waiting for Bruce to prove (as Votto did this season) that he's a quality player (or, worse for the finances, a superstar). Small markets need to take calculated risks. Aroldis Chapman was a calculated risk -- flamethrowing LHP with all-world stuff but completely unproven at a professional level -- at big money, but not nearly the kind of money a proven 100+ MPH LHP would command. Jay Bruce would be a similar situation: 23 y/o with all-world talent, but lacking consistency thus far.


Having Edmonds around might be a good thing but I don't want a gimpy 40 year old taking up a roster spot if his only contribution is to give Jay Bruce hitting advice. If he's so important to Jay's success, make him a Special Assistant to the GM and have him hang with Jay before games and during ST.

The 25th roster spot is usually a mediocre ballplayer, even on great clubs. If Edmonds can have a full off-season to rest his leg, I don't doubt he can be a useful LH bat off the bench and a spot-starter at 1B and LF. I'd rather have Edmonds for 150 PAs and mentoring young hitters the rest of the time than Laynce Nix or someone like him.

Ghosts of 1990
10-22-2010, 11:37 AM
Votto's an interesting name to bring up. If the Reds could've worked a deal with him last off-season, they might have received some kind of discount for investing in a guy who had off-field personal issues that resulted in missed games.

Now, Votto's bringing MVP hardware into his Arbitration hearing, and he's poised to take the Reds to the cleaners on any deal they end up working out.

Bruce is a similar situation. The Reds can buy "lower" now, and invest in him before he proves that he deserves big money. Once he posts a full season of numbers (if he does), the Reds will potentially have missed their window of opportunity to lock him in at below-market value.

It's all well-and good to be in "show me" mode, but the Reds can't afford to buy sure things all the time.

Best post within the thread to me and you state many of the points I agree with.

The Reds aren't a team who can afford to wait on confirmation of sure things. I think they could be sorry, and are risking losing both Votto AND Bruce if they both blow up this year. A scenario is possible where both price themselves out of Cincinnati and we have to trade them both. Just something to think about.

Roy Tucker
10-22-2010, 12:03 PM
April: .833
May: .827
June: .824
July: .508
August: 1.076
September: 1.025
October: 1.944 (9 AB's)



He did put up an entire full season. He had one bad month.



Hmmmm... This is pretty telling.

I was on the "let's not go crazy over Jay Bruce" side of the argument. The MLB landscape is littered with one year wonders like Bob Hamelin, Joe Charboneau, Ron Kittle, etc etc. Bruce's slumps scare me because they are severe.

But that OPS by month swung me over. At a certain point, a GM has to gamble. If he waits till the young player has *proven* he's worthy of a LTC, then its too late. He has to look at the indicators, talk to staff and scouts, and roll the dice.

Sign him up, Walt.

Patrick Bateman
10-22-2010, 12:24 PM
Hmmmm... This is pretty telling.

I was on the "let's not go crazy over Jay Bruce" side of the argument. The MLB landscape is littered with one year wonders like Bob Hamelin, Joe Charboneau, Ron Kittle, etc etc. Bruce's slumps scare me because they are severe.

But that OPS by month swung me over. At a certain point, a GM has to gamble. If he waits till the young player has *proven* he's worthy of a LTC, then its too late. He has to look at the indicators, talk to staff and scouts, and roll the dice.

Sign him up, Walt.

I agree, accept to me it's really not much of a gamble.
For the bulk of the season he was perceived as playing below expectations, as it did take him most of the year to have a real "breakout" month.

However, in total he was still a 5 win player. If that's him in a season that takes him 5 months to bust out, imagine what a breakout season would be. He's about as safe a bet as any player his age to go long term with. Discussions should have started yesterday.

edabbs44
10-22-2010, 12:55 PM
This. I was pro "Lock Up Votto" last off-season, and the Reds dropped the ball there. Can't afford to make the same mistake again.

It's easy to make these "decisions" when your job isn't on the line and when you don't have the whole story.

Giving 6 years to a guy with well documented emotional issues that took place 4 months prior is difficult to do. If he broke down this season I am sure Walt would have been pounded for that decision.

edabbs44
10-22-2010, 12:59 PM
You mean like a 5 win season? Would that be a good full season.

In my opinion, it would be borderline insane not to lock up Bruce long-term this offseason. Guy just had an .850 OPS season with GG defense.... as a 23 year old. In Joey Votto's age 23 season, he was putting up an .859 OPS in Louisville.

Lock. Him. Up.

I like Jay and I do not disagree with the extension, dependent upon the terms. I'd love to see him be here for a long time and hope something gets done.

But do you know who also has 5 win seasons on their resume? Nyjer Morgan adn Angel Pagan.

Homer Bailey
10-22-2010, 01:09 PM
It's easy to make these "decisions" when your job isn't on the line and when you don't have the whole story.

Giving 6 years to a guy with well documented emotional issues that took place 4 months prior is difficult to do. If he broke down this season I am sure Walt would have been pounded for that decision.

Sure. I understand the Reds not doing it last year, I just don't think it was a good decision. It's also not my money to spend, nor is it Walt's, so I don't think it's even fair to blame Walt for that. It's a risk I would have taken if I were in charge though.


I like Jay and I do not disagree with the extension, dependent upon the terms. I'd love to see him be here for a long time and hope something gets done.

But do you know who also has 5 win seasons on their resume? Nyjer Morgan adn Angel Pagan.

Did they do that at age 23? Were they ever the number 1 prospect in all of baseball? Do either of those players have skill-sets similar to Bruce?

What I think people are afraid to think about is that this is, in my opinion, the tip of the iceberg for Bruce. I would not be surprised to see a .380+ wOBA from him next year, with a .900-.950+ OPS, 30-35 HR's, etc. It's not out of the question that he could be a 7 win player next year, and be in a big player in the MVP race.

The key is that Bruce has shown significant signs of progression, IMO. By all accounts that I've read, Bruce is an extremely hard worker, and takes his craft very seriously. I think his absolute floor going forward is a .750 OPS with GG defense, and that alone would make him probably around a 2.5-3 win player I'm guessing? If he wasn't such a good defender, I could understand people saying that they were opposed to locking him up, because there is a chance that his bat won't be as good as many project it to be. However, defense doesn't slump.

osuceltic
10-22-2010, 01:23 PM
Two things:

1. It's interesting that when we talk about Jonny Gomes and his body of work, everyone quickly discounts his hot six-week stretch. But when we talk about Jay Bruce, you get lambasted for making the same argument. With Gomes, only the bad stretch matters. With Bruce, only the good stretch.

2. Everyone thinks Bruce was helped by Edmonds. What if he was just motivated by Edmonds? What if he suddenly realized there was a legitimate right field option if he didn't produce? That he wasn't on scholarship in the big leagues? Is that a permanent realization, or is he a guy who needs to be pushed? Those are the questions you ask when you're talking about handing someone $50 million.

pedro
10-22-2010, 01:27 PM
Two things:

1. It's interesting that when we talk about Jonny Gomes and his body of work, everyone quickly discounts his hot six-week stretch. But when we talk about Jay Bruce, you get lambasted for making the same argument. With Gomes, only the bad stretch matters. With Bruce, only the good stretch.

2. Everyone thinks Bruce was helped by Edmonds. What if he was just motivated by Edmonds? What if he suddenly realized there was a legitimate right field option if he didn't produce? That he wasn't on scholarship in the big leagues? Is that a permanent realization, or is he a guy who needs to be pushed? Those are the questions you ask when you're talking about handing someone $50 million.

That's because Gomes had 1 good month and 5 bad ones.

Bruce, OTOH, had 1 bad month and the rest were good.

westofyou
10-22-2010, 01:28 PM
That's because Gomes had 1 good month and 5 bad ones.

Bruce, OTOH, had 1 bad month and the rest were good.

And he's young and Gomes isn't

Homer Bailey
10-22-2010, 01:31 PM
And he's young and Gomes isn't

AND because Bruce provides more than just the bat.

Not a fair comparison at all.

Ghosts of 1990
10-22-2010, 01:37 PM
What I think people are afraid to think about is that this is, in my opinion, the tip of the iceberg for Bruce. I would not be surprised to see a .380+ wOBA from him next year, with a .900-.950+ OPS, 30-35 HR's, etc. It's not out of the question that he could be a 7 win player next year, and be in a big player in the MVP race.



Good post. Based on what his agent pointed out in the interview; and according to scouting departments from around the league this is what they're saying/expecting. There's no guarantees or sure things but it is likely that this is the tip of the ice-burg of a very complete player who has very little risk other than getting hurt in terms of reaching his full potential. His character aspect is very good.

edabbs44
10-22-2010, 01:44 PM
That's because Gomes had 1 good month and 5 bad ones.

Bruce, OTOH, had 1 bad month and the rest were good.

Do we really think that Gomes had only one good month or do we think that randomly he just had a large concentration of success in that one month?

Same for Jay...was his .508 random and his Aug-Oct explosion just making up for that?

I wouldn't discount one month unless there was an injury or some other reason to explain otherwise.

westofyou
10-22-2010, 01:51 PM
Do we really think that Gomes had only one good month or do we think that randomly he just had a large concentration of success in that one month?


Yes, if you can look at these numbers and say Gomes had a great season then you're seeing different numbers than I am.



Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
April/March 20 16 67 60 9 13 1 1 2 12 0 1 3 16 .217 .254 .367 .620
May 25 23 100 88 16 32 7 1 5 22 1 0 10 24 .364 .420 .636 1.056
June 27 24 102 90 6 22 8 0 2 17 0 1 3 23 .244 .304 .400 .704
July 25 23 104 96 15 23 2 0 4 14 2 1 5 18 .240 .288 .385 .674
August 23 19 84 70 15 16 2 0 2 6 0 0 12 14 .229 .357 .343 .700
Sept/Oct 28 28 114 107 16 30 4 1 3 15 2 0 6 28 .280 .325 .421 .745

edabbs44
10-22-2010, 02:01 PM
Yes, if you can look at these numbers and say Gomes had a great season then you're seeing different numbers than I am.



Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
April/March 20 16 67 60 9 13 1 1 2 12 0 1 3 16 .217 .254 .367 .620
May 25 23 100 88 16 32 7 1 5 22 1 0 10 24 .364 .420 .636 1.056
June 27 24 102 90 6 22 8 0 2 17 0 1 3 23 .244 .304 .400 .704
July 25 23 104 96 15 23 2 0 4 14 2 1 5 18 .240 .288 .385 .674
August 23 19 84 70 15 16 2 0 2 6 0 0 12 14 .229 .357 .343 .700
Sept/Oct 28 28 114 107 16 30 4 1 3 15 2 0 6 28 .280 .325 .421 .745



Not at all what I said.

Many are quick to discount Gomes' one good month or Bruce's one bad month. But, barring any extenuating circumstances (league unfamiliarity, injury, etc) shouldn't we look at the whole body of work when you have a large enough sample? We want to believe that Bruce's bad month was an outlier and that Aug/Sept was the real Bruce, just when you add them up it's basically what he was the rest of the season.

osuceltic
10-22-2010, 02:10 PM
That's because Gomes had 1 good month and 5 bad ones.

Bruce, OTOH, had 1 bad month and the rest were good.

Looking big picture, I'd say Bruce had four solid months and two scorching hot months (and those two months included a fairly lengthy stint out of the lineup).

My point is we're quick to say the hot month for Gomes is a mirage and he's really the other guy. Why isn't the hot stretch for Bruce a mirage and the other four months the real guy? A solid big-league outfielder is a good thing, but I don't pay $50 million for it.

Caveat Emperor
10-22-2010, 02:17 PM
My point is we're quick to say the hot month for Gomes is a mirage and he's really the other guy. Why isn't the hot stretch for Bruce a mirage and the other four months the real guy? A solid big-league outfielder is a good thing, but I don't pay $50 million for it.

Age is a huge consideration: Bruce is only 23 (still incredibly young, even after 2+ years in the majors), Gomes will be 30 next month. Jose Bautista (and his injections of choice) aside, not a lot of players get remarkably better than their baseball card at 29/30. More likely that we're seeing improvement from Bruce than we are from Gomes.

Pedigree is also a consideration. Jay Bruce was a 1st round pick and former #1 prospect in all of baseball just a few years ago. Gomes was an 18th round pick and has underachieved throughout his big-league career. The scouts and minor-league experts have pegged Jay Bruce as having this kind of talent since Day 1. Can't say the same for Gomes.

Hoosier Red
10-22-2010, 02:20 PM
Well if you take away Gomes' best and Gomes' worst months, you're looking at a relatively poor LF with a .707 OPS.

If you take away Jay Bruce's best and worst months, you're looking at a relatively excellent RF with a .884 OPS.

What's the league average OPS for an outfielder?

bucksfan2
10-22-2010, 02:27 PM
Age is a huge consideration: Bruce is only 23 (still incredibly young, even after 2+ years in the majors), Gomes will be 30 next month. Jose Bautista (and his injections of choice) aside, not a lot of players get remarkably better than their baseball card at 29/30.

Pedigree is also a consideration. Jay Bruce was a 1st round pick and former #1 prospect in all of baseball just a few years ago. Gomes was an 18th round pick and has underachieved throughout his big-league career.

Sure age is an issue. But we also have to realize that in both Jay's full major league seasons he has had issues in the middle of the season. Big issues in which a stint in AAA was being discussed. The big question is what can we expect out of Jay going forward. He isn't going to produce like he did in the last two months of the season. And to expect that is unrealistic. But we also understand that he likely isn't going to experience a slump as bad as he did in the middle of the season. But we can not ignore both such instances. We can look at potential all we want and hand out contracts on potential. But you have to realize you may get stuck with unrealized potential.

Pedigree is just that, pedigree. Gomes may have been an 18th round pick, but Pujols was a 13th round pick. There have been plenty of top pick flame outs. There have been plenty of top rated prospects who never realized their potential. And there have been guys who have been described as having a slow bat (Votto) who have risen to stars (Colin Cowherd excused) in today's game. Extending Bruce, which I do feel is the proper decision within the next year or so, and at what price tag is going to come down to scouts and front office personal. But this whole notion that of "we have to do it now" is getting a little ahead of itself.

REDREAD
10-22-2010, 02:30 PM
From Mark Sheldon - Reds payroll to increase a little bit



http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101021&content_id=15764128&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin&partnerId=rss_cin

Sheldon goes on to mention Scott Podsednik and Coco Crisp as candidates. Podsednik? Ugh. Crisp is a decent player but I like him more as a 4th outfielder.

It's encouraging for Walt to know the obvious place for improvement.
I fully expect Walt to explore the trade market more than the FA market.
The Reds have plenty of trading chips, but are somewhat constrained in salary. It makes more sense to trade some excess pitching and get a young/cost effective LF that can lead off or bat in the middle of the order and be an upgrade to Gomes. It would be awesome to find a young SS that can field and have a high OBP on the trade market, but those type of players usually aren't traded.

Homer Bailey
10-22-2010, 02:41 PM
Sure age is an issue. But we also have to realize that in both Jay's full major league seasons he has had issues in the middle of the season. Big issues in which a stint in AAA was being discussed. The big question is what can we expect out of Jay going forward. He isn't going to produce like he did in the last two months of the season. And to expect that is unrealistic. But we also understand that he likely isn't going to experience a slump as bad as he did in the middle of the season. But we can not ignore both such instances. We can look at potential all we want and hand out contracts on potential. But you have to realize you may get stuck with unrealized potential.

Again, AAA was never discussed. RedsZone does not count. There is going to be an ebb and flow to 95% of baseball players, save the ones that never seem to slump severely (Votto, Pujols, etc.).


Pedigree is just that, pedigree. Gomes may have been an 18th round pick, but Pujols was a 13th round pick.

The point was, we know who Gomes is by now. He's 30. He was never a top prospect. There is no "level" for Gomes to reach. We don't know what Bruce's level is, but it's obviously that the sky is the limit for a 5 win, age 23 player with all of the tools.


There have been plenty of top pick flame outs. There have been plenty of top rated prospects who never realized their potential. And there have been guys who have been described as having a slow bat (Votto) who have risen to stars (Colin Cowherd excused) in today's game. Extending Bruce, which I do feel is the proper decision within the next year or so, and at what price tag is going to come down to scouts and front office personal. But this whole notion that of "we have to do it now" is getting a little ahead of itself.

Do you think Bruce puts up better or worse numbers in 2011? I think across the board, people will say he will put up better numbers. Would you rather sign him to a long term contract after 2011?

bucksfan2
10-22-2010, 03:07 PM
Again, AAA was never discussed. RedsZone does not count. There is going to be an ebb and flow to 95% of baseball players, save the ones that never seem to slump severely (Votto, Pujols, etc.).

I have found that RZ is pretty intune with the pulse of the Reds. If RZ was talking about it and making valid points for it I am sure many other people were talking about it. IMO both Dusty and Walt did a good of resisting the urge to panic and kept playing him day in day out.


Do you think Bruce puts up better or worse numbers in 2011? I think across the board, people will say he will put up better numbers. Would you rather sign him to a long term contract after 2011?

It is an interesting question. Quite frankly I want to see more consistency out of Jay. No long stretches of anemic output is a must for me. And I don't like WAR because of its reliance on a poor defensive metric and also a large bump in OPS from a red hot stretch against opponents who had long mailed it in. When you hit 12 HR's in a two month stretch against Arizona, Milwaukee, and Chicago I tend to take notice. Its one heck of a stretch, but you also need to take notice of the opponent. Its the same thing with Homer Bailey at the end of 09 when people were wary of his success against the dregs in the league.

Overall I think his numbers should be slightly better. The big key to me is more consistency. I truly hope that Jay made the proper adjustments towards the end of the season which led to his success. I hope it was that instead of capitalizing on teams that had long mailed it in.

Homer Bailey
10-22-2010, 03:29 PM
Overall I think his numbers should be slightly better. The big key to me is more consistency. I truly hope that Jay made the proper adjustments towards the end of the season which led to his success. I hope it was that instead of capitalizing on teams that had long mailed it in.

I think it's very unrealistic to expect a 23 year old to not have a bad month month in the major leagues. Other than that month, he was either above average, or well above average.

I(heart)Freel
10-22-2010, 04:11 PM
All good debate on the Bruce contract front.

My take: the Reds have to spend the least it can on players under team control. So that they have more money to spend for players not under team control.

Bruce is under team control for 4 more years. Arbitration years, but four more years nonetheless.

If a 6-year $50 million contract is in the cards, I guess I wonder if that should happen after that big breakout season. If you're the Reds, you don't want to pay him $5 mill if going to arbitration or settling for one year would mean $3-4 million.

Based on Upton's contract (which the agent said was comparable), Bruce would get $4.25M, $6.75M , $9.75M, $14.25M and $14.5M. To me... and maybe it's just me... couldn't he earn that if the Reds just went to arbitration hearings with him each year? And that's if he plays good ball.

If he gets hurt or has an off year, the Reds would pay significantly less, if they went the year to year approach.

In fact, based on those Upton numbers, the only way the Reds lose by going year to year with him is if he has an MVP like season. I like Bruce a lot, but I think I would rather risk that than risk guaranteed big money this off season.

Hoosier Red
10-22-2010, 04:20 PM
One thing that's going to make arbitration very interesting in the next few years; what happens if the free agent pool continues to dry up a little bit.

Ryan Howard made a ton based on arbitration but he was able to compare his numbers to other players who made more as the salaries were escalating.

If I remember correctly, players in the first two years of arbitration can only compare their contracts to like players in arbitration but players in the last year of arbitration can use free agent contracts as well.Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

It may turn out that going to arbitration artificially inflates a players salary because they'll use comparable salaries from the 2006-2008 era when those players salaries were generally going up.

OnBaseMachine
10-22-2010, 04:25 PM
April: .833
May: .827
June: .824
July: .508
August: 1.076
September: 1.025
October: 1.944 (9 AB's)


Thank you for pointing that out. Jay Bruce was having an above average season at the plate until a disastrous month of July. He had three above average months, one truly awful month, and two MVP months. If he can just eliminate the disastrous month, we're talking about a .900+ OPS bat. He just needs to avoid those long slumps next season. The only thing separating him from a MVP type season this year was the prolonged slump in July.

I'm definitely down for locking Bruce up long-term.

Ghosts of 1990
10-22-2010, 04:27 PM
All good debate on the Bruce contract front.

My take: the Reds have to spend the least it can on players under team control. So that they have more money to spend for players not under team control.

Bruce is under team control for 4 more years. Arbitration years, but four more years nonetheless.

If a 6-year $50 million contract is in the cards, I guess I wonder if that should happen after that big breakout season. If you're the Reds, you don't want to pay him $5 mill if going to arbitration or settling for one year would mean $3-4 million.

Based on Upton's contract (which the agent said was comparable), Bruce would get $4.25M, $6.75M , $9.75M, $14.25M and $14.5M. To me... and maybe it's just me... couldn't he earn that if the Reds just went to arbitration hearings with him each year? And that's if he plays good ball.

If he gets hurt or has an off year, the Reds would pay significantly less, if they went the year to year approach.

In fact, based on those Upton numbers, the only way the Reds lose by going year to year with him is if he has an MVP like season. I like Bruce a lot, but I think I would rather risk that than risk guaranteed big money this off season.

I get what you're saying, but do you ever extend his contract? Or are you just saying after his arbitration years are up you let him walk?

OnBaseMachine
10-22-2010, 04:28 PM
Paul Daugherty on Votto:


One club insider suggested any long-term deal would start at four years, and be for something well north of $40 million, and that the club would be interested in going that route.


http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/10/22/daugherty-looks-at-joey-vottos-mega-earnings-coming/

edabbs44
10-22-2010, 04:34 PM
Thank you for pointing that out. Jay Bruce was having an above average season at the plate until a disastrous month of July. He had three above average months, one truly awful month, and two MVP months. If he can just eliminate the disastrous month, we're talking about a .900+ OPS bat.

I'm definitely down for locking Bruce up long-term.

You can't just eliminate months.

Cedric
10-22-2010, 04:35 PM
You can't just eliminate months.

Luckily Jocketty is eliminating Gomes lucky month and not letting his counting stats cloud his judgement.

The Operator
10-22-2010, 04:36 PM
Hmm, four years for Votto only buys out one year of free agency, no?

I'd like to at least lock him up for five.

Caveat Emperor
10-22-2010, 04:42 PM
Hmm, four years for Votto only buys out one year of free agency, no?

I'd like to at least lock him up for five.

At this point, I imagine the biggest concern is creating cost-certainty with Votto during his arb-years for future budgeting purposes. Years beyond that are probably gravy -- great if you can work them out, but not the most pressing concern.

edabbs44
10-22-2010, 04:50 PM
Luckily Jocketty is eliminating Gomes lucky month and not letting his counting stats cloud his judgement.

Gomes' month wasn't lucky.

Homer Bailey
10-22-2010, 05:00 PM
Gomes' month wasn't lucky.

That is certainly debateable. He had a .458 BABIP for the month of May.

Big Klu
10-22-2010, 05:01 PM
Incidentally, Jim Edmonds was acquired by the Reds on August 9th, 2010. Jay Bruce was 5-23 w/ 0 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 8Ks and 1 XBH in the 7 games in August leading up to that date -- good for a .217 / .280 / .261 slash-line. This was, as indicated earlier, coming on the heels of a July where he posted a similarly-anemic .508 OPS.

After Edmonds was acquired, Bruce went on to go 22-58 w/ 8 HR, 15 RBI, 9 BB, 13K, and a slash-line of .379 / .456 / .828 for the rest of August.

You can draw your own conclusions from those numbers, but I repeat my assertion that any discussion of Jay Bruce should include attempts to coax Edmonds into playing 1 more season.


Having Edmonds around might be a good thing but I don't want a gimpy 40 year old taking up a roster spot if his only contribution is to give Jay Bruce hitting advice. If he's so important to Jay's success, make him a Special Assistant to the GM and have him hang with Jay before games and during ST.


The 25th roster spot is usually a mediocre ballplayer, even on great clubs. If Edmonds can have a full off-season to rest his leg, I don't doubt he can be a useful LH bat off the bench and a spot-starter at 1B and LF. I'd rather have Edmonds for 150 PAs and mentoring young hitters the rest of the time than Laynce Nix or someone like him.

I saw enough of Jim Edmonds over the last two months to convince me that I would like him back as a backup OF/1B and left-handed hammer PH if he wants to return. If he doesn't want to come back, then I would support having him as a Special Assistant to Walt, and maybe activating him in mid to late August if the Reds need help on the bench down the stretch.

Patrick Bateman
10-22-2010, 05:40 PM
That is certainly debateable. He had a .458 BABIP for the month of May.

Oh man this argument could go in circles.
Now edabbs will just ask how about his unlucky months where he presumably had bad BAPIP luck.

My general thesis is that month by month analysis is pretty bad. In Bruce's case thought the fact that he seemed to change his approach near the end of the year and had great success is a bit of an indication that he's ready to breakout.

Gomes on the other hand, probably the full season is a fair estimation. Conisidering his WAR was 0, that seems reasonable without having to go month by month. He just stunk.

I also think people lose in this debate is the massive fielding difference. A lot of people like to excuse Bruce's offense to a degree when he is fielding at an elite level and even during his slumps isn't a horrible regular.

Gomes on the other hand was replacement level this season. He has to be a great hitter to justify the position and fielding. Bruce doesn't. The fact that Bruce is 23 and will likely blossom into a great hitter and Gomes is age prime should resolve the rest of the analysis.

edabbs44
10-22-2010, 06:30 PM
That is certainly debateable. He had a .458 BABIP for the month of May.

That's a good example of manipulating a stat.

Patrick Bateman
10-22-2010, 07:07 PM
That's a good example of manipulating a stat.

Agreed. Looking at BAPIP on a monthly basis is really overanalyzing things as it is.

Ron Madden
10-23-2010, 03:37 AM
Indeed. I love Jay but let's see him put together a good full season at the plate before we start talking about LTDs.

Whenever we look back to see how productive any player has been we find his year end and/or career statistics.

Those stats are not split up day by day, week by week or month by month but season by season.

Every player is going to have hot streaks and slumps. It's his season or career totals that will tell us pretty much about how productive he actually was.

Jay Bruce had a very solid and productive season in my humble opinion.

buckeyenut
10-23-2010, 09:13 AM
Jay Bruce had a very solid and productive season in my humble opinion.I would argue that this isn't an opinion. This is a fact. OPS+ of 127 for the best defensive right fielder in the game, that is way beyond very solid and productive. And oh, by the way, at age 22.

In my opinion, if you are a Reds fan, you should be absolutely GIDDY at what Jay Bruce did this year.

kaldaniels
10-23-2010, 10:51 AM
To break down his season into even a smaller slice :rolleyes: Jay Bruce had a 2 week stretch where he went 5 for 53 in July. Take that out and his July suddenly isn't horrible looking (still not great). Would that stretch really cause you to not offer a long term contract?

Gotta look at the big picture. The guy is good.

traderumor
10-23-2010, 12:01 PM
Familiarity breeds contempt. At least that seems to be the way fans evaluate their own. Players on other teams are often evaluated for their performance against the Reds.

Mario-Rijo
10-23-2010, 12:03 PM
To break down his season into even a smaller slice :rolleyes: Jay Bruce had a 2 week stretch where he went 5 for 53 in July. Take that out and his July suddenly isn't horrible looking (still not great). Would that stretch really cause you to not offer a long term contract?

Gotta look at the big picture. The guy is good.

Real good and I concur gotta sign the kid now.

Oxilon
10-23-2010, 01:17 PM
I only wish the Reds locked up Joey Votto last season, before he made himself a $20+ mil. a season player. Why didn't they again? Health concerns?

The Reds are middle market team, more or less. Yes, there's certainly some risk signing Jay Bruce to a LTC right now, but it's a risk the Reds have to make. We're not the Yanks or Phils, so we can't just wait until their contract expires, because they'll likely command too much money. Honestly, I think it'd be kind of inexcusable if the Reds let both Votto and Bruce become high priced players before they locked them up. It's already too late for Votto, let's hope we can't say the same when it comes to Bruce a year from now.

dfs
10-23-2010, 02:52 PM
I only wish the Reds locked up Joey Votto last season, before he made himself a $20+ mil. a season player. Why didn't they again?

Because other than the very,very top end, the price of players has been going down like a stone.

Ghosts of 1990
10-23-2010, 08:00 PM
[QUOTE=kaldaniels;2291350]To break down his season into even a smaller slice :rolleyes: Jay Bruce had a 2 week stretch where he went 5 for 53 in July. Take that out and his July suddenly isn't horrible looking (still not great). Would that stretch really cause you to not offer a long term contract?

One could make an argument that he was close to being a .300 hitter if that slide is just an average slide. Between that and the slow start in which he was hitting rockets right at everyone for the first two weeks; Jay is not far from a .300 hitter in the near future if his K/BB ratio continues to trend in the right direction IMO.

Ghosts of 1990
10-23-2010, 08:03 PM
I only wish the Reds locked up Joey Votto last season, before he made himself a $20+ mil. a season player. Why didn't they again? Health concerns?

The Reds are middle market team, more or less. Yes, there's certainly some risk signing Jay Bruce to a LTC right now, but it's a risk the Reds have to make. We're not the Yanks or Phils, so we can't just wait until their contract expires, because they'll likely command too much money. Honestly, I think it'd be kind of inexcusable if the Reds let both Votto and Bruce become high priced players before they locked them up. It's already too late for Votto, let's hope we can't say the same when it comes to Bruce a year from now.

The Reds MUST get out of this trend of thinking a long term contract for their best young home-grown talent is 3 or 4 years. That's just not the way it's correctly done when you look back at the blueprints for long-standing successful franchises.

We can all say "no one is a sure bet" but Bruce and Votto are guys who are as close to a sure bet as there is in this game. They must do what they can to lock them up for 5 to 6 years each and say "this is our window".

fearofpopvol1
10-23-2010, 09:42 PM
The Reds MUST get out of this trend of thinking a long term contract for their best young home-grown talent is 3 or 4 years. That's just not the way it's correctly done when you look back at the blueprints for long-standing successful franchises.

We can all say "no one is a sure bet" but Bruce and Votto are guys who are as close to a sure bet as there is in this game. They must do what they can to lock them up for 5 to 6 years each and say "this is our window".

Why though? The team's objective should be to get the most out of their homegrown talent at the best possible value for the team for the longest period of time. Sometimes, that means giving up a little bit of extra money to keep the players beyond their arb years. If the players are sure bets (or as close to sure bets as possible), what's the huge downside to this logic?

The Reds don't have a huge payroll and must stay competitive by being smart and efficient. Tampa Bay is going to get a lot of extra value because of this approach with Longoria and the Brewers will be getting the same with this logic with Braun.

MikeS21
10-23-2010, 09:59 PM
The Reds MUST get out of this trend of thinking a long term contract for their best young home-grown talent is 3 or 4 years. That's just not the way it's correctly done when you look back at the blueprints for long-standing successful franchises.
Are you speaking of large market "long-standing successful franchises" or smaller market "long-standing successful franchises"?

While I would absolutely love to see Votto, Bruce, and two or three other of the younger talent signed 5-6 years, I don't think the Reds are in a position to take on that risk. All it takes is an injury or a freak play, and the Reds are saddled with a hefty contract and little production. Case in point, at the end of 2003, Austin Kearns should have been signed to a 5-6 year deal to lock him up. However, aren't we glad that didn't happen?

The Yankees and Red Sox can afford 5-6 year contracts. Not sure the Reds can. Well, they can, but their margin for error is extremely thin.

RFS62
10-24-2010, 08:57 AM
Ken Griffey Jr. was as close to a "sure thing" as I can ever remember. 30 years old when we acquired him, and he appeared to be on a march to pass Aaron on the all time home run list. Arguably the best player in the game, and a home town boy to boot.

How did that long term deal work out for us?

It's a very big risk, with the downside potentially catastrophic for a team with limited resources. For the Yankees, it's tip money. They light their cigars with 100 dollar bills.

I want Bruce and Votto here long term as much as anyone. But I also see the risk.

Chip R
10-24-2010, 03:05 PM
Ken Griffey Jr. was as close to a "sure thing" as I can ever remember. 30 years old when we acquired him, and he appeared to be on a march to pass Aaron on the all time home run list. Arguably the best player in the game, and a home town boy to boot.

How did that long term deal work out for us?


To be fair, that long term contract was for a 30 year old Jr. If it was for a 22-23 year old Jr., that's another story.

I think locking Votto up is a gamble worth taking. I am not willing to do the same for Jay Bruce. It's all well and good to post on the internet that Bruce should be signed to a long term big money deal then 2-3 years from now if he's underperforming, criticize the Reds for signing him to that deal.

RFS62
10-24-2010, 03:09 PM
To be fair, that long term contract was for a 30 year old Jr. If it was for a 22-23 year old Jr., that's another story.

I think locking Votto up is a gamble worth taking. I am not willing to do the same for Jay Bruce. It's all well and good to post on the internet that Bruce should be signed to a long term big money deal then 2-3 years from now if he's underperforming, criticize the Reds for signing him to that deal.



To be even more fair :p:, was it Junior's age that did him in, or a series of injuries that could have happened to anyone? I guess you could say he didn't heal as fast as a younger man, but I never thought his age was much of a contributor to the catastrophic series of events which we all suffered through in his stay here.

Chip R
10-24-2010, 03:17 PM
To be even more fair :p:, was it Junior's age that did him in, or a series of injuries that could have happened to anyone? I guess you could say he didn't heal as fast as a younger man, but I never thought his age was much of a contributor to the catastrophic series of events which we all suffered through in his stay here.

Well, if anyone would know about age, it'd be you. :D

I'm not saying that Jr.'s contract was a bad deal. I'm saying that it's much less of a gamble to sign a 23 year old to a long term deal than a 30 year old.

RFS62
10-24-2010, 03:30 PM
Well, if anyone would know about age, it'd be you. :D

I'm not saying that Jr.'s contract was a bad deal. I'm saying that it's much less of a gamble to sign a 23 year old to a long term deal than a 30 year old.


Yeah, I remember when I used to say things like that.... back when I was young and stupid. :cool:

But are we talking about Jay Bruce and Ken Griffey Junior here, or speaking in generalities, as you yappy young pups are prone to do when your ideas are exposed as, uh, less than thought out.

BTW, I'm all for siging Votto and Bruce long term. But I can't ignore the inherent risk involved.

TheNext44
10-24-2010, 03:51 PM
All long term contracts are risks. They key is making sure you are consistent with the risk. Everytime there is a player whose risk is low enough to justify a long term contact, you give him one. Over time, some will not work out, but most will. As long you do it every time and spread the risk around, you will come out ahead.

If done right, each successful long term contract should provide a bunch of excess value. The Phillips one, for instance, has already provided around $16M of excess value and that will like get to around $30M if he stays healthy next season. So even if team only went 2 for three in contracts, and the third guy provided zero production, the team still comes out ahead.

I would extend Bruce, Votto, Phillips, this season, and if they have solid years, I would extend Bailey and Stubbs after next season.. Most of these would be relatively small deals, similar to what Phillips got originally. This would provide the team with economic certainty with very small risk. One or two of those guys might not live up to their contract, but most will, and overall, it should translate into some nice excess value for the team for years.

mth123
10-24-2010, 05:27 PM
Votto 5 years, Bruce 6 years, Cueto 3 years. Those are the deals the Reds should be pursuing. Arroyo should be a one year guy unless he's willing to give a pretty steep discount which get's his deal down the 7 to 8 million per year range.

Next year at this time, the names to worry about will be Stubbs, Bailey (if he has a good year) and possibly Masset.

PuffyPig
10-24-2010, 09:00 PM
Votto 5 years, Bruce 6 years, Cueto 3 years. Those are the deals the Reds should be pursuing. Arroyo should be a one year guy unless he's willing to give a pretty steep discount which get's his deal down the 7 to 8 million per year range.

Next year at this time, the names to worry about will be Stubbs, Bailey (if he has a good year) and possibly Masset.

Stubbs won't be arb eligibe until after the 2012 season.

camisadelgolf
10-25-2010, 11:47 AM
So, if you're Juan Francisco, why aren't you in winter ball trying to become at least an acceptable left fielder? You're a left-handed power bat in an organization that has an opening for one in LF. If you could play 60 games in left and another 40 or so filling in for Rolen, heck, that's almost a regular. I mean, maybe you can't learn to be a left fielder, but if I were him I'd at least try.

It drives me crazy when guys who are marginal to make the team don't take an objective look at the team and figure out where the holes they could possibly fill are.
Francisco is officially in the Dominican Winter League.