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I(heart)Freel
10-21-2010, 02:14 PM
Before the hot stove starts heating up, I want to take a second to ask for some intelligent guesses on the Reds payroll constraints.

That means... estimating the arbitration cases.

Votto is the big one.
Cueto and Volquez are also due for arb.
And Bruce will likely be a Super Two arb guy.

What in the wide wide world of sports will these guys make next season?

I've asked several times on local sports blogs for those "in the know" to hazard a guess and I haven't been replied to. So I ask Red Zone.

My guesses are below and are at least somewhat based on my quick study for comps in this chart from last year.

http://www.bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=599&Itemid=72

So... here goes. Chime in.

Votto = $10 mill
Cueto = $3.5
Volquez = $3
Bruce = $3

reds1869
10-22-2010, 09:21 AM
I think the Reds will lock up one or both of the Votto/Bruce tandem to long term deal. If not, my guesses are as follows.

Votto $11 million
Cueto $3 million
Volquez 2.5 million
Bruce 4 million

redsfandan
10-22-2010, 05:07 PM
$10-11M seems a little high for Votto. I keep seeing $7M+ for him.

*BaseClogger*
10-22-2010, 05:14 PM
I thought the Reds waited long enough on Bruce to avoid Super Two?

I(heart)Freel
10-22-2010, 05:18 PM
I thought the Reds waited long enough on Bruce to avoid Super Two?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/06/super-two-cutoff-less-than-expected.html

Looking like it was not long enough.

dfs
10-22-2010, 05:48 PM
$10-11M seems a little high for Votto. I keep seeing $7M+ for him.

I'll tell you what.....If you're reds management, I would hate to be the one who drew the task of arguing against Joey Votto in arbitration.

I guess you could complain that he didn't lead the league in steals.

I don't Jocketty will Bowden this one and low ball the player. At least that's what I tell myself. Bob has remade this team and they want to be an organization that players want to play for.

TheNext44
10-22-2010, 09:19 PM
$10-11M seems a little high for Votto. I keep seeing $7M+ for him.

Yep. His ceiling appears to be $9M.

Remember that most players agree before they go to arbitration. I'm guessing both Votto and Bruce get locked up long term each with a lower than expected 2011 salary.

Votto- $5.5M
Bruce - $2.5M
Cueto - $3M
Volquez - $1.5M

Volquez is coming off of surgery and a 50 day suspension. His next suspension is for a year. That means more than his numbers.

I(heart)Freel
10-22-2010, 09:53 PM
$10-11M seems a little high for Votto. I keep seeing $7M+ for him.

If Howard can get $10 mill in arb his first year, I don't think $10 is high for Votto.

EDIT: Then again... this writer and comparison chart thinks it will be closer to $7.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/08/joey-vottos-2011-salary.html

TheNext44
10-22-2010, 10:17 PM
If Howard can get $10 mill in arb his first year, I don't think $10 is high for Votto.

EDIT: Then again... this writer and comparison chart thinks it will be closer to $7.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/08/joey-vottos-2011-salary.html

Phillies always pay their guys too much, and it was when salaries were higher overall. That partially explains why he got so much.

RedsManRick
10-22-2010, 10:25 PM
Howard also had 58 HR and 149 RBI. Votto had 21 fewer HR and 46 fewer RBI. While their overall offensive value is comparable, and Votto's overall value superior due to better defense, I'd be shocked if an arbitrator went with the WAR figures in the face of such a massive gap is the sexy counting stats.

If it goes through arb, I'd put Votto on $7.5M.

redsfandan
10-22-2010, 10:36 PM
I'll tell you what.....If you're reds management, I would hate to be the one who drew the task of arguing against Joey Votto in arbitration.

I guess you could complain that he didn't lead the league in steals.

I don't Jocketty will Bowden this one and low ball the player. At least that's what I tell myself. Bob has remade this team and they want to be an organization that players want to play for.
You may be right. Unfortunately for Votto, counting stats count too (AND the time he's missed) will also count in an arbitration hearing.

Volquez - $1.5M

Volquez is coming off of surgery and a 50 day suspension. His next suspension is for a year. That means more than his numbers.
Good point. $1.5M might not happen but, if it does, the 50 day suspension would likely help the Reds.

Dom Heffner
10-23-2010, 12:47 AM
I'll admit I know zero about the arbitration process, but could someone tell me how Jay Bruce gets a raise?

He's had 4 good months in 3 years.

*BaseClogger*
10-23-2010, 02:17 AM
I'll admit I know zero about the arbitration process, but could someone tell me how Jay Bruce gets a raise?

He's had 4 good months in 3 years.

Learn more about the process?

I(heart)Freel
11-14-2010, 08:53 PM
Quick update on this...

JFay finally answered this question in the paper today. His guesses are later in this article:

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20101113/SPT04/11140343/1071/Votto-for-MVP-Writers-will-get-it-right

I'd still be surprised with $3 mill for Bruce. But others are reasonable?

Helps put this offseason's move in the proper light, I think.

Brutus
11-14-2010, 09:16 PM
Howard also had 58 HR and 149 RBI. Votto had 21 fewer HR and 46 fewer RBI. While their overall offensive value is comparable, and Votto's overall value superior due to better defense, I'd be shocked if an arbitrator went with the WAR figures in the face of such a massive gap is the sexy counting stats.

If it goes through arb, I'd put Votto on $7.5M.

Agreed wholeheartedly. The Arbitration panel is still pretty old school (as is the Elias rankings). Votto wouldn't be awarded nearly as much as Howard got.

blumj
11-15-2010, 03:05 AM
I'll admit I know zero about the arbitration process, but could someone tell me how Jay Bruce gets a raise?

He's had 4 good months in 3 years.
That is just how the system is set up, so teams can't keep paying a player just the minimum salary for more than 3 years. If they don't think a player's worth it and would prefer not to keep him at a higher salary, they can either trade him or choose to not offer him any contract at all.

dfs
11-15-2010, 10:23 AM
I'll admit I know zero about the arbitration process, but could someone tell me how Jay Bruce gets a raise?

He's had 4 good months in 3 years.
Sure. For the first three years they play major league players are payed pretty much whatever the team wants to pay them which, surprise surprise, is usually ether the major league minimum, or very close to the major league minimum.

After those three year, players go through another three years where the club that owns them can A. release them, B. sign them to a mutually agreeable contract OR C. have the team and the player both submit what they believe to be the fair value of the player to an arbitrator who decides what the player is worth.

Note that this is also why as a team you want to keep guys in the minors as long as you can and why new players are so valuable to teams.

So....you pay the guy minimum wage for three years and then complain that "he gets a raise based on four good months." If the reds didn't think he was worth the money, they would release him and not go to arbitration.

kaldaniels
11-15-2010, 02:08 PM
I'll admit I know zero about the arbitration process, but could someone tell me how Jay Bruce gets a raise?

He's had 4 good months in 3 years.

Are you bringing that argument as if you are sitting across the table negotiating with Jay, or is that your view of him as a Reds fan.

Cause I just gotta say I think you are selling our GG-caliber right fielder (which has been consistent aside from a certain playoff game) a bit short with that remark.