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View Full Version : The Next Step (POLL)



Mario-Rijo
10-22-2010, 08:09 PM
It seems many here are divided on what we "need" to take the next step. Many of us think it's an ACE and some of those folks (not sure how many thus this poll) believe we don't have one or won't have one. So it begs the question be asked, what do we need to improve upon this past season?

Personally I'm torn, I know we need better offensive performance as we didn't do as well against better teams/pitching. But I'd really "like" a guy with ACE stuff, command and control. Now we could gamble that one of these youngsters reaches his ceiling or at least gets in the neighborhood and use our excess to reel in at least a capable #4 hitter. People like having the luxury of 6 or 7 really good starters but there is only a 5 man rotation and all 7 should be starting in the big leagues or at least is scheduled to be. So something has to give right? And so it only makes sense to use that excess to get that need.

So again what do we need? How do we get it and with whom?

corkedbat
10-22-2010, 08:40 PM
We need an Ace, but not necessarily as the next step. A SS who can hit first or second would be great, but I think the meat of the order should be top priority - even if it's jest the left-handed side of a platoon. Get the bat over the winter and go hard after the arm at the deadline.

mth123
10-22-2010, 08:45 PM
Not sure how to answer this poll. IMO the Reds need a starter who isn't a question mark to go with Cueto and Arroyo and is better than anyone on the 2010 team. An Ace would be nice, but some certainty and success would be great even if he isn't the first name to come to mind when thinking about the Cy Young award. Leake, Bailey, Volquez, Chapman and Wood are all still questions. I like them all, but if my plan is to compete, I don't want three of my rotation spots filled with so much uncertainty from among those five.

I also think the Reds need another middle of the order bat. An every day LF who could hit 4th would be great and most people want a RH bat, but IMO a guy like that is more than the Reds can afford and with a number of RH options already on board, I'd rather go for a lefty who mashes righties who could patoon with Gomes, Heisey, Wlad or eventually Frazier.

I'm content to go with Cozart and Jansih at SS, but if the Reds could add a LH hitting alternative who could caddy Rolen provide some rest for Phillips and play some SS when the home grown guys are scuffling, it would be a huge addition.

TheNext44
10-22-2010, 09:13 PM
I voted for top of the lineup. Getting one, would keep Stubbs from the top of the lineup and allow him to develop into the middle order power hitter he should be.

corkedbat
10-22-2010, 09:14 PM
Not sure how to answer this poll. IMO the Reds need a starter who isn't a question mark to go with Cueto and Arroyo and is better than anyone on the 2010 team. An Ace would be nice, but some certainty and success would be great even if he isn't the first name to come to mind when thinking about the Cy Young award. Leake, Bailey, Volquez, Chapman and Wood are all still questions. I like them all, but if my plan is to compete, I don't want three of my rotation spots filled with so much uncertainty from among those five.

I also think the Reds need another middle of the order bat. An every day LF who could hit 4th would be great and most people want a RH bat, but IMO a guy like that is more than the Reds can afford and with a number of RH options already on board, I'd rather go for a lefty who mashes righties who could patoon with Gomes, Heisey, Wlad or eventually Frazier.

I'm content to go with Cozart and Jansih at SS, but if the Reds could add a LH hitting alternative who could caddy Rolen provide some rest for Phillips and play some SS when the home grown guys are scuffling, it would be a huge addition.

I consider Wood solid enough to pencil him into the fourth spot in the rotation and not worry and believe it or not, after watching his maturtation process over the last two or three years, I would put Homer in the same category. He may not be an ace, but he and Travis make as good a 4/5 backend of the rotation as you could ask for.

I'd put Volquez in the same category, but his control issues still worry me and he's the arm I'd be most willing to put in a trade (wonder if Texas would take him back for Nelson Cruz?). I like Leake, but would like to see another year of him (Cincy or L'Ville) before making any kind of lasting opinion. He would be the second on my "if you had to deal him, would you?" list of starters.

Chapman is the main enigma. I believe he could stay in the pen and become a Mariano-like closer - maintaining his velocity for years to come. Move him back to the rotaton and you may eventually have your ace, but losing velocity and possible Volquez-like control issue are what bother me. I think his slider and changeup would be in his favor as a starter though.

The one thing I think is lacking is the number one. I think that it would be easier (and less costly) to acquire them in July than Nov-Feb. Webb being the possible exception.

Mario-Rijo
10-22-2010, 09:33 PM
Not sure how to answer this poll. IMO the Reds need a starter who isn't a question mark to go with Cueto and Arroyo and is better than anyone on the 2010 team. An Ace would be nice, but some certainty and success would be great even if he isn't the first name to come to mind when thinking about the Cy Young award. Leake, Bailey, Volquez, Chapman and Wood are all still questions. I like them all, but if my plan is to compete, I don't want three of my rotation spots filled with so much uncertainty from among those five.

I also think the Reds need another middle of the order bat. An every day LF who could hit 4th would be great and most people want a RH bat, but IMO a guy like that is more than the Reds can afford and with a number of RH options already on board, I'd rather go for a lefty who mashes righties who could patoon with Gomes, Heisey, Wlad or eventually Frazier.

I'm content to go with Cozart and Jansih at SS, but if the Reds could add a LH hitting alternative who could caddy Rolen provide some rest for Phillips and play some SS when the home grown guys are scuffling, it would be a huge addition.

I can see all of that with the exception of the rotation uncertainty. I, like corkedbat feel really confident in Wood in fact I'd feel comfortable with him in any spot in the rotation. I know i'm in the minority on Leake but I feel fine with him at the back end of the rotation next year and eventually the middle of it. Like corkedbat said Chapman is a bit of an enigma he's the one guy i'm on the fence about just because I don't know whether or not to buy what the F.O. is selling about putting him in the rotation.

Homer and Edinson are the 2 that I don't know what to expect from and one of these 2 are the ones I would work on dealing. I like corkedbats idea of Nelson Cruz but I think Texas might have more interest in Homer and he's the one I'd most prefer to deal myself. That is an interesting possibility.

mth123
10-22-2010, 09:40 PM
I can see all of that with the exception of the rotation uncertainty. I, like corkedbat feel really confident in Wood in fact I'd feel comfortable with him in any spot in the rotation. I know i'm in the minority on Leake but I feel fine with him at the back end of the rotation next year and eventually the middle of it. Like corkedbat said Chapman is a bit of an enigma he's the one guy i'm on the fence about just because I don't know whether or not to buy what the F.O. is selling about putting him in the rotation.

Homer and Edinson are the 2 that I don't know what to expect from and one of these 2 are the ones I would work on dealing. I like corkedbats idea of Nelson Cruz but I think Texas might have more interest in Homer and he's the one I'd most prefer to deal myself. That is an interesting possibility.

I think both Chapman and Leake need a full season at AAA. If the Reds don't develop them into Starters who can go innings before throwing them into the fire, I fear they'll become Joba-like disappointments. I like them both long term, but for 2011, I don't want them rushed into the Reds rotation.

I like Wood, and he impressed, but I don't take it as a given that he'll be a dependable starter now that the league has had a chance to adjust. Volquez and Bailey are injury questions IMO. Ideally, the Reds deal Volquez for a more certain guy, fill the back with Wood and Bailey and let Leake and Chapman develop with one replacing Arroyo after the 2012 season and the other nosing out whoever reveals himself to be the weak link,

redsfandan
10-22-2010, 10:33 PM
I haven't read the other responses yet but I'm torn between these two options:
A (RH) Cleanup Hitter

Other: Wait until July and then get the best player available to fill the biggest need

The Reds really don't HAVE any glaring weaknesses right now. But I can also understand people that want an ace (mostly because of how it would help in the playoffs), a top shortstop (even though Janish/Cozart could provide close to as much production at a fraction of the cost), or a top leftfielder (which is probably the easiest position to fill even if it's with a platoon).

That's why, while I know that buying at the trade deadline may very well up the price of whoever we'd acquire, I'd prefer either Werth (or someone close/better value) for leftfield or to just wait 'til July.

sivman17
10-22-2010, 10:41 PM
Not sure why so many people think we need an "ace." We have 8 legitimate pitchers for a 5 man rotation. We have great pitchers. What we need is a solid, everyday SS and/or LF.

RedsManRick
10-22-2010, 10:45 PM
Not sure why so many people think we need an "ace." We have 8 legitimate pitchers for a 5 man rotation. We have great pitchers. What we need is a solid, everyday SS and/or LF.

I would have voted for an everyday SS if the option were available. Short of that, this offense led the NL least year. I'm more worried about run prevention. You can only use 5 starters at a time. #s 6, 7 and 8 only hep you if another guy is hurt. I'd like to upgrade over one of the top 5 guys and have somebody who can give us an advantage in a short series.

Of course, if you can find a plus defending LF who can also hit, that would do a good bit for our run prevention too.

20 runs allowed (the difference between Gomes and a good LF) is the difference between a 4.50 and a 3.60 ERA over 200 IP.

edabbs44
10-22-2010, 11:01 PM
20 runs allowed (the difference between Gomes and a good LF) is the difference between a 4.50 and a 3.60 ERA over 200 IP.

Is this correct?

I(heart)Freel
10-22-2010, 11:06 PM
Get the bat over the winter and go hard after the arm at the deadline.

That's where I am.

edabbs44
10-22-2010, 11:10 PM
That's where I am.

Yep, me too.

RedsManRick
10-22-2010, 11:13 PM
Is this correct?

If you're referring to the math, yes. 20 runs over 200 IP is 0.90 ERA.

If you're referring to the 20 run figure itself, yes, more or less. Is it the exact figure? Who knows. It could be less. And frankly it could be more if we're talking about a truly good defensive LF. But it's the best estimate we can get right now using a logical, reasonable, consistent methodology and the available underlying information.

edabbs44
10-22-2010, 11:21 PM
If you're referring to the math, yes. 20 runs over 200 IP is 0.90 ERA.

If you're referring to the 20 run figure itself, yes, more or less. Is it the exact figure? Who knows. It could be less. And frankly it could be more if we're talking about a truly good defensive LF. But it's the best estimate we can get right now using a logical, reasonable, consistent methodology and the available underlying information.

In 200 innings a "good" LFer would be worth 20 runs in comparison to Gomes? I find that very hard to believe. One every 10 innings?

RedsManRick
10-22-2010, 11:31 PM
In 200 innings a "good" LFer would be worth 20 runs in comparison to Gomes? I find that very hard to believe. One every 10 innings?

Forgive my unclear wording. A run saved per 10 innings by a single defender is clearly ridiculous and I would hope you'd give me the benefit of the doubt there. I was not referring to the value of that defense applied over 200 IP. Rather, I was presenting an equivalency of on upgrade to another to help put the value of good defense in a more familiar context. Let me restate it more clearly.

The run prevention gained (for the team) by upgrading from Gomes to a good defensive LF is equivalent to the run prevention gained by upgrading from a 4.50 ERA starter to a 3.60 ERA starter.

edabbs44
10-22-2010, 11:35 PM
Forgive my unclear wording. I was not referring to the value of that defense over 200 IP. I was trying to simply present an equivilency to help put the value of good defense in a more familiar context. Let me restate it more clearly.

The run prevention gained (for the team) by upgrading from Gomes to a good defensive LF is equivalent to the run prevention gained by upgrading from a 4.50 ERA starter to a 3.60 ERA starter.

Gotcha, I thought I was misunderstanding what you were saying.

Will M
10-22-2010, 11:40 PM
My two cents:

I want the team to get a middle of the order bat for left field. Thats the "next step" for me. If we get that guy then I am fine with going with Janish/Cozart at short. I doubt we have all that much 'payroll flexibility'. If we can trade for a left fielder who makes decent but not outrageous money we could still have a little cash to bring back Rhodes, maybe bring back Ramon if he is cheap (Mes could likely use a little more time at AAA) & maybe get somebody decent for the bench.

If we were to trade for Greinke or some other expensive ace I don't think we would have a lot of cash left to fill other holes.

As for the top of the order we could go Phillips-Rolen. Phillips was having a fine year before the injury. Hopefully he will bounce back in a contract year. Rolen seems a fine #2 hitter if we get a stud for the 4 spot.

2B Phillips
3B Rolen
1B Votto (L)
LF Mr Stud
RF Bruce (L)
CF Stubbs
C Hanigan/Hernandez or Mes
SS Janish/Cozart

With the Reds pitching this seems like a lineup that can make it back to the postseason. I know that we led the NL in offense but I have doubts about certain guys for 2011 (Rolen, SS, Ramon). An 850+ OPS bat for left field would go a long way to make up for dropoffs elsewhere.

Mario-Rijo
10-23-2010, 12:33 AM
I would have voted for an everyday SS if the option were available. Short of that, this offense led the NL least year. I'm more worried about run prevention. You can only use 5 starters at a time. #s 6, 7 and 8 only hep you if another guy is hurt. I'd like to upgrade over one of the top 5 guys and have somebody who can give us an advantage in a short series.

Of course, if you can find a plus defending LF who can also hit, that would do a good bit for our run prevention too.

20 runs allowed (the difference between Gomes and a good LF) is the difference between a 4.50 and a 3.60 ERA over 200 IP.

This is a mirage. This team isn't a team that hits good pitching well. And in the playoffs if we are to advance we need to hit said good pitching. IMO the pitching/defense is potentially capable of improving to the point it can handle most teams in the playoffs, I can't see a few of these hitters getting it together.

kaldaniels
10-23-2010, 12:54 AM
This is a mirage. This team isn't a team that hits good pitching well. And in the playoffs if we are to advance we need to hit said good pitching. IMO the pitching/defense is potentially capable of improving to the point it can handle most teams in the playoffs, I can't see a few of these hitters getting it together.

Ok...so how about a point of reference. Let's say the Reds had the schedule of the Atlanta Braves in 2010...where do you think they would rank in the NL in total offense? Simple question that requires a simple answer.

mth123
10-23-2010, 03:59 AM
This is a mirage. This team isn't a team that hits good pitching well. And in the playoffs if we are to advance we need to hit said good pitching. IMO the pitching/defense is potentially capable of improving to the point it can handle most teams in the playoffs, I can't see a few of these hitters getting it together.

Not only that, but a lot of that offense came from guys unlikely to match what they did in 2010.

Is Rolen the ,850+ OPS bat from 2010 or the the sore shouldered .760ish guy from 2007 and 2008? I'm guessing Rolen will struggle to have much pop in 2011.

Will the catching spot repeat? Anyone really think that Hernandez will OPS .792 after three years of .714, .714 and .699? How about Hanigan? Anybody really think he is an .834 OPS bat? He was a .692 guy in 2009.

Brandon Phillps season totals weren't out of line with his career, but his splits were much improved. He had an OPS of .811 vs LHP and .741 against RHP and it made him an asset out there every day. His career shows him as an .844 OPS guy vs LH with only a .707 OPS against RHP. In previous years, Phillips was a superstar against LHP while being an offensive non-factor against RHP. In terms of winning games, 2010 was much more valuable.

Even Joey Votto could experience a drop-off. Votto was the leage leader in OBP, Slugging and OPS. Even if he has another big year as we all expect, he's unlikley to do that and will probably suffer a drop-off in overall production that the team will need to make-up.

Bench performances of Nix, Heisey and Cairo were all pretty good in 2010. Production from the bench is a bit of a crapshoot. Will the team be able to match that?

Anybody think that Paul Janish can OPS .723 again? I'm expecting closer to the .601 from 2009.

The 2010 Reds were the leading offense in the NL. But the Moon and the stars seemed to be perfectly aligned for the 2010 offense. Expecting a repeat is foolish IMO. The team needs a mid-order bat or to find a way to piece together mid-order production from a platoon in LF. I am hopeful for a repeat from Stubbs with more consistency and I expect a move to the next level from Bruce, but overall, the offense will need another bat to stay near the top and to deepen the line-up to have more success against better pitching.

Mario-Rijo
10-23-2010, 12:57 PM
Ok...so how about a point of reference. Let's say the Reds had the schedule of the Atlanta Braves in 2010...where do you think they would rank in the NL in total offense? Simple question that requires a simple answer.

I couldn't tell ya that and frankly I'm not sure it would be relevant if I could. What I can tell ya is that this team did very well hitting the long ball. They did that largely off the fact they can hit fastballs and mistakes well. Very few of them did well hitting off-speed and/or breaking stuff. Also as mth stated quite a few had career type years, can that happen again going forward I doubt it. Although I do think the offense will still have some potency as Bruce and Stubbs continue to develop. But I still see a hole or 2 and if filled correctly could make a world of difference. I think improving on Gomes and Cabrera is important but I doubt the Reds will see it the same way as they are more enamored with chemistry and the like.

kaldaniels
10-23-2010, 02:36 PM
I couldn't tell ya that and frankly I'm not sure it would be relevant if I could. What I can tell ya is that this team did very well hitting the long ball. They did that largely off the fact they can hit fastballs and mistakes well. Very few of them did well hitting off-speed and/or breaking stuff. Also as mth stated quite a few had career type years, can that happen again going forward I doubt it. Although I do think the offense will still have some potency as Bruce and Stubbs continue to develop. But I still see a hole or 2 and if filled correctly could make a world of difference. I think improving on Gomes and Cabrera is important but I doubt the Reds will see it the same way as they are more enamored with chemistry and the like.

I agree that there is room for improvement...I would be stunned if Walt is not looking for an upgrade at both those areas. He may not say it publicly, but he watched the same games we did over the last couple months, and he has to know the weak links in the lineup. A good GM (which I think Walt is) is never content and never just sits on his hands. I guess we will see.

That said, the offense had a great year last year, and I'd estimate even if Walt didn't upgrade SS and LF, it would still be an above league-average offense.

VR
10-23-2010, 03:30 PM
Lance Berkman could be an interesting addition.

corkedbat
10-23-2010, 04:35 PM
Lance Berkman could be an interesting addition.

I love Berkman and would consider adding him to the roster if I could answer three concerns:

1) Falling production. Only 14 long balls.
2) Price. Is he willing to play for what I'm willing to offer?
3) Health. My main concern is the same as with Rolen, will he (and his production) fall as the season grinds on (probably closely tied to #1)?

RedsManRick
10-23-2010, 04:51 PM
You guys do realize that the Reds don't have a DH and that neither Berkman nor Votto are LFers? Right?

Mario-Rijo
10-23-2010, 06:26 PM
I think the smartest deal to be made is one with the Rays and/or multiple other deals with several teams. Just something I've been kicking around.

Reds/Rays/Mets

Rays get: Alonso, Bailey, Cordero, Thole (Get 3 needs and Bailey all while saving a few bucks)

Reds get: Garza, Beltran & Bartlett (Fill 3 needs while not adding alot to payroll)

Mets get: Brandon Phillips, Upton, Burton & Ramon Hernandez (get more well rounded as a team, younger and ultimately improve while again not changing their salary base much).

Bartlett - SS
Stubbs - CF
Votto - 1B
Beltran - LF
Bruce - RF
Rolen - 3B
Cozart - 2B
Hanigan/Mes - C

Mes - C
Janish - MI
Cairo - UT
Heisey - OF
Nix - OF

Volquez
Cueto
Garza
Wood
Leake

Chapman - CL
Masset - SU
Rhodes - SU
Arredondo - MR
Bray - MR
Ondrusek - MR
LeCure/Smith - LR

Pretty nice looking team, only problem is would Beltran waive his no trade clause and additionally would he do it without forcing an extension? If so we might have to look elsewhere for our power.

SirFelixCat
10-24-2010, 03:51 PM
1 - Jayson Werth

2 - Carl Crawford

edabbs44
10-25-2010, 10:00 AM
Lance Berkman could be an interesting addition.

It would be more than interesting if you want him to play LF.

WebScorpion
10-27-2010, 02:37 AM
I'm not so sure the next step isn't just to be patient. Our left field bat may be Balentien or Sappelt; Our SS may be Janish/Cozart; and our Catcher may be Mesoraco/Hanigan. Our ace pitcher might be any of Bailey/Chapman/Wood/Leake/Cueto/Volquez.

I don't think we are going to have a problem competing for the division title in 2011 with the parts we already have. Why not wait, see what develops, and make a decisive move at the All-Star break for whatever we appear to need for a playoff push? At that point we should have a better idea of how each of these guys is developing. I know it's cool to make a big trade and all, but just think where we might be if we hadn't made the Volquez - Hamilton trade. Sometimes no move is the right move.

If Mes plays we'll get a lot more pop out of the catcher spot. If Balentien plays we should have another decent middle of the order option; If it's Sappelt, we've got someone for the top of the order and Stubbs can be the righty between Votto and Bruce. With these pitchers, the odds are in our favor that one (or more) of these guys will take the next step to consistency. Any one of them can shut down an opposing offense, but none of them does it consistently...that's the next step. Don't trade them in favor of an innings-eater just in time to see them take that next step for another team. Let's watch and see what we've got.

Unless someone's going to deal us Hanley Ramirez or Ryan Zimmerman, Felix Hernandez or Josh Johnson, I'd stand pat for now. :D

HokieRed
10-27-2010, 10:13 AM
Next step in the division is to be sure Houston doesn't sign Zack Greinke.

camisadelgolf
10-27-2010, 12:15 PM
Next step in the division is to be sure Houston doesn't sign Zack Greinke.
It's going to take a lot more than Greinke to make Houston competitive imho.

HokieRed
10-27-2010, 03:51 PM
It's going to take a lot more than Greinke to make Houston competitive imho.

Disagree. A rotation of Greinke, Rodriguez, Happ, Myers, and Norris will be very competitive with ours.

camisadelgolf
10-27-2010, 05:15 PM
Disagree. A rotation of Greinke, Rodriguez, Happ, Myers, and Norris will be very competitive with ours.
We'll just have to disagree. The way I see it, the Astros have nobody for catcher and shortstop (unless Castro develops, which isn't looking all that promising). Chris Johnson probably won't come close to repeating his success from this year. Carlos Lee is terrible (and taking up a huge portion of their payroll). The bullpen is in a lot of trouble. They have almost zero minor league depth. And that's scratching the surface.