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View Full Version : Expectations for Arroyo in 2011



RedsManRick
10-30-2010, 12:55 AM
The Arroyo Extension conversation has included of debate about what people expect from him in 2011. So given that, pick one of the options in the poll -- no explanation necessary.

mth123
10-30-2010, 01:59 AM
4.20 ERA is a pretty good spot for the over/under. I've been kind of thinking about 4.20 as a reasonable expectaton, but 4.00 to 4.30 is a reasonable range. I picked the under, but a few points under or over don't really mean much in his case. Its taking the ball every day, getting deep into the game and handing it over to the pen with the team in position to win. Had the number been 4.00, it would have been an easy choice to take the over. Had the number been 4.40, it would have been an easy choice to take the under.

At 215 IP, 100 Earned Runs allowed is a 4.19 ERA and is a reasonable expectation. 105 ER would push that ERA to 4.40 after rounding. Not sure how much 5 Runs over 33 starts would matter in terms of wins and losses even though the stats look a lot different. Its likely the difference between being left in to give-up 8 runs in a blow-out to save the pen for a couple innings and being taken out with 3 or 4 given up early in the game. I think we sometimes overstate how much these differences matter in terms of wins and losses. As the innings horse in a rotation filled with kids, its part of Arroyo's job to take those beatings so that the kids can be handled with care the day before or day after. His ERA probably suffers by a few points because of it but those extra runs are piled on in a game that would be a loss anyway and probably mean very little in terms of actual wins and losses.

corkedbat
10-30-2010, 03:41 AM
200+ innings, around a 4.20 ERA, no missed starts and around 15-17 wins. Consistency has been his calling card and he will stay consistent.

RedsManRick
10-30-2010, 02:36 PM
Put me down for 175 IP and a 4.45 ERA. He's a pitcher; good health won't last forever.

SMcGavin
10-30-2010, 02:40 PM
Put me down for 175 IP and a 4.45 ERA. He's a pitcher; good health won't last forever.

Maybe not forever, but when something has happened 6 years in a row it's hard to make an argument that it has less than even odds of happening again.

Boss-Hog
10-30-2010, 02:44 PM
I clicked on the wrong option - I meant "Over 200 IP, Under 4.20 ERA".

RedsManRick
10-30-2010, 02:49 PM
Maybe not forever, but when something has happened 6 years in a row it's hard to make an argument that it has less than even odds of happening again.

I'd be very interested to see all of the people who had 6 seasons of 200 IP and what happened in season #7. I don't think the odds are as high as you do. I'm not sure I can pull that from the B-R database, but maybe WoY or one of the other guys with access to good data can.

mth123
10-30-2010, 02:56 PM
If Arroyo's innings dropped to the 175 level, where he skips a turn when he's gassed or has a nagging problem instead of taking the ball anyway to keep the staff in order and where he comes out of the game instead of going back out there to save the pen when he's spent or doesn't have it, I'd expect an accross the board improvement in all those peripheral numbers that seem to be held against him. Inning eaters don't have the luxury of being babied like the others are. Without one or two like him, the others would be asked to do those things and we'd probably see the numbers of guys like Cueto and Wood look a little worse as well, not to mention the extra stress on the pen and how it might burn up Masset and the other late inning guys.

RedsManRick
10-30-2010, 03:20 PM
If Arroyo's innings dropped to the 175 level, where he skips a turn when he's gassed or has a nagging problem instead of taking the ball anyway to keep the staff in order and where he comes out of the game instead of going back out there to save the pen when he's spent or doesn't have it, I'd expect an accross the board improvement in all those peripheral numbers that seem to be held against him. Inning eaters don't have the luxury of being babied like the others are. Without one or two like him, the others would be asked to do those things and we'd probably see the numbers of guys like Cueto and Wood look a little worse as well, not to mention the extra stress on the pen and how it might burn up Masset and the other late inning guys.

I'm not suggesting he's going to be babied and that's where the innings drop comes from. I'm suggesting he's going to flat out miss a handful of starts. If anything, his peripherals will be worse for the wear.

dougdirt
10-30-2010, 03:44 PM
I'd be very interested to see all of the people who had 6 seasons of 200 IP and what happened in season #7. I don't think the odds are as high as you do. I'm not sure I can pull that from the B-R database, but maybe WoY or one of the other guys with access to good data can.

There have been 31 players since 1980 (through 2009) who have gone at least 6 years of 200 innings. Only 12 made it to 7 years in a row. Here is how the 7th year went for the guys who only made it 6 years.

Randy Johnson - Age 39 - 114 innings, 4.26 ERA
Mike Moore - 199.1 innings, threw 3 more 200+ inning seasons in a row after that.
Jamie Moyer - 199.1 innings.
Barry Zito - 196 innings, first year in the NL
Freddy Garcia - 58 innings in 2007, 15 in 2008 and 56 in 2009.
Brad Radke - 118 innings, then threw 3 straight 200+.
Ron Darling - went two straight years with under 130 innings before rebounding to 194.
Dennis Martinez - 1994 happened. :(
Bert Blyleven - 134 innings, missed the next season, then 133 innings before retiring.
Bruce Hurst - Threw 41 innings over the next two seasons before retiring.
Bob Welch - Threw 123, 166 and 68 before retiring
Mike Scott - 7 innings at age 35. Retired after that.
David Wells - 100 innings, then threw 184+ in 4 straight years.
Walt Terrell - 158, 218 and 136 before retiring at age 34.
Doyle Alexander - Retired after his 6th season at age 38.
Doug Drabek - 1994 happened. Never topped 185 again in his career.
Mike Witt - 117 innings, then threw 10 innings over 2 seasons with a full season missed between those two before retiring.
David Cone - 1994 Happened. :(
Fernando Valenzuela - 142 innings, then only topped 100 innings 4 times in 8 more seasons with a full year missing.

mth123
10-30-2010, 03:53 PM
I'm not suggesting he's going to be babied and that's where the innings drop comes from. I'm suggesting he's going to flat out miss a handful of starts. If anything, his peripherals will be worse for the wear.

Exactly, kind of like Cueto going on the DL with fatigue and nagging injuries to save him from a string of 9+ ERA outings, Volquez going to the DL and Dayton because he's not himself and out of whack to save him from his streak of inability. Leake being shut down with shoulder fatigue when he was a batting tee, etc. etc. etc.

In year's past Arroyo has pitched through stuff like that (Carpal Tunnel??) and suffered his own series of poor outings which contribute greatly to those poor peripherals everyone harps on. What has happened to those others is babying by the way and guys like Arroyo taking the ball are a big reason why its possible.

TheNext44
10-30-2010, 04:02 PM
There have been 31 players since 1980 (through 2009) who have gone at least 6 years of 200 innings. Only 12 made it to 7 years in a row. Here is how the 7th year went for the guys who only made it 6 years.

Randy Johnson - Age 39 - 114 innings, 4.26 ERA
Mike Moore - 199.1 innings, threw 3 more 200+ inning seasons in a row after that.
Jamie Moyer - 199.1 innings.
Barry Zito - 196 innings, first year in the NL
Freddy Garcia - 58 innings in 2007, 15 in 2008 and 56 in 2009.
Brad Radke - 118 innings, then threw 3 straight 200+.
Ron Darling - went two straight years with under 130 innings before rebounding to 194.
Dennis Martinez - 1994 happened. :(
Bert Blyleven - 134 innings, missed the next season, then 133 innings before retiring.
Bruce Hurst - Threw 41 innings over the next two seasons before retiring.
Bob Welch - Threw 123, 166 and 68 before retiring
Mike Scott - 7 innings at age 35. Retired after that.
David Wells - 100 innings, then threw 184+ in 4 straight years.
Walt Terrell - 158, 218 and 136 before retiring at age 34.
Doyle Alexander - Retired after his 6th season at age 38.
Doug Drabek - 1994 happened. Never topped 185 again in his career.
Mike Witt - 117 innings, then threw 10 innings over 2 seasons with a full season missed between those two before retiring.
David Cone - 1994 Happened. :(
Fernando Valenzuela - 142 innings, then only topped 100 innings 4 times in 8 more seasons with a full year missing.

Looking at that, it seems like the odds are a little better than 50-50, when you consider three guys came real close, and three others were denied due to the strike.

But the fact that there have only been 31 in the last 30 years speaks very highly of what Arroyo has accomplished.

*BaseClogger*
10-30-2010, 05:24 PM
Guys who don't strike people out and rely on their defense usually have a high rate of variation in their ERAs from year to year. I would not be surprised by an ERA of 3.50 from Arroyo and I also would not be surprised by a 5.00 ERA. Realistically, I expect something like a 4.50 ERA.

And the 200 innings is a no-brainer as that is his primary skill...

HokieRed
10-30-2010, 06:02 PM
185 innings, 4.36 ERA, 12 wins.

westofyou
10-30-2010, 06:29 PM
I don't have this years data yet, but at the end of last year here's the list of guys since 1980 who had 200IP in consecutive years (and the total)



ALL LEAGUES & TEAMS
1980-2009
ALL POSITIONS
INNINGS PITCHED >= 200


1 Greg Maddux 1988-01 14
2 Frank Viola 1983-92 10
T3 Mike Mussina 1995-03 9
T3 Mark Buehrle 2001-09 9
T5 Mark Langston 1986-93 8
T5 Tom Candiotti 1986-93 8
T5 Livan Hernandez 2000-07 8
T8 Jack Morris 1982-88 7
T8 Charlie Hough 1982-88 7
T8 Mike Boddicker 1984-90 7
T8 Roger Clemens 1986-92 7
T8 Tom Glavine 1996-02 7
T13 Fernando Valenzuela 1982-87 6
T13 Mike Witt 1984-89 6
T13 Walt Terrell 1984-89 6
T13 Ron Darling 1984-89 6
T13 Bert Blyleven 1984-89 6
T13 Mike Moore 1984-89 6
T13 Doyle Alexander 1984-89 6
T13 Mike Scott 1985-90 6
T13 Bob Welch 1986-91 6
T13 Bruce Hurst 1987-92 6
T13 Dennis Martinez 1988-93 6
T13 Doug Drabek 1988-93 6
T13 David Cone 1988-93 6
T13 David Wells 1995-00 6
T13 Brad Radke 1996-01 6
T13 Randy Johnson 1997-02 6
T13 Freddy Garcia 2001-06 6
T13 Barry Zito 2001-06 6
T13 Jamie Moyer 2001-06 6
T32 Don Sutton 1982-86 5
T32 Dave Stieb 1982-86 5
T32 Phil Niekro 1982-86 5
T32 Rick Rhoden 1982-86 5
T32 Kevin Gross 1985-89 5
T32 Orel Hershiser 1985-89 5
T32 Dave Stewart 1987-91 5
T32 John Smoltz 1989-93 5
T32 Pedro Martinez 1996-00 5
T32 Steve Trachsel 1996-00 5
T32 Kevin Brown 1996-00 5
T32 Mike Hampton 1997-01 5
T32 Jeff Suppan 1999-03 5
T32 Bartolo Colon 2001-05 5
T32 Carlos Zambrano 2003-07 5
T32 Johan Santana 2004-08 5
T32 Brandon Webb 2004-08 5
T32 Roy Oswalt 2004-08 5
T32 Dan Haren 2005-09 5
T32 Bronson Arroyo 2005-09 5
T32 Javier Vazquez 2005-09 5

WebScorpion
10-30-2010, 11:57 PM
That's a pretty interesting list. Of the 4 players on that list whose streaks are currently active, only one (Vazquez) failed to get 200 IP this season. Buehrle moved into a tie for 2nd with his 10th :eek: consecutive 200 IP season and Arroyo and Haren are now tied with all the guys at 13th with 6 in a row. Greg Maddux was truly a freak. ;)

I expect Arroyo in 2011 to do the same thing he's done the past 2 years...steadily improve his overall stats. He hasn't had an ERA over 4.00 since 2008, so I thought the under was an easy choice...the 200 IP also seems a safe bet. This season marked his best WHIP and BAA numbers since he's been a starter...yes, even better than his first season with the Reds. Here's what I see for next season 19-9, 3.75 ERA, 217 IP, .227 BAA, 1.11 WHIP. A marginal improvement on 2010, but he'll start getting a little respect from outside the organization. :D

Griffey012
10-31-2010, 04:00 AM
That's a pretty interesting list. Of the 4 players on that list whose streaks are currently active, only one (Vazquez) failed to get 200 IP this season. Buehrle moved into a tie for 2nd with his 10th :eek: consecutive 200 IP season and Arroyo and Haren are now tied with all the guys at 13th with 6 in a row. Greg Maddux was truly a freak. ;)

I expect Arroyo in 2011 to do the same thing he's done the past 2 years...steadily improve his overall stats. He hasn't had an ERA over 4.00 since 2008, so I thought the under was an easy choice...the 200 IP also seems a safe bet. This season marked his best WHIP and BAA numbers since he's been a starter...yes, even better than his first season with the Reds. Here's what I see for next season 19-9, 3.75 ERA, 217 IP, .227 BAA, 1.11 WHIP. A marginal improvement on 2010, but he'll start getting a little respect from outside the organization. :D

I like your thoughts. The Buehrle comparison is a good one. Neither of the 2 are flashy, but both continue to get it done again and again. I have seen nothing in Arroyo to believe he is due for a setback. In fact, I have more belief in the "crafty" Arroyo than I did in the strikeout Arroyo.