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View Full Version : Jocketty: Budget to increase and other nuggets of info



edabbs44
11-04-2010, 09:12 AM
The Reds' budget will be "better" than last year's $72 million, general manager Walt Jocketty told CBSSports.com on Wednesday, but because of the team's large number of arbitration-eligible players, he's unsure how much money he has to spend.


http://mlb-facts-and-rumors.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22297882/25647304

Walt also mentions that one of his goals is to find a leadoff man, that Chapman will start off in Cincy next year, that he is very comfy about going to battle with Janish at SS and that he has already spoken to Cairo's agent about bringing Miggy back for an encore.

Good stuff.

Redsfan320
11-04-2010, 09:28 AM
yes indeed. Good stuff to hear, all of it. Thanks for posting, ed.

320

Unassisted
11-04-2010, 10:27 AM
So "more" is "better" now? This is earth-shattering! IIRC, O'Brien and Krivsky had to spend most of their tenures as GM trying to convince us fans that having more money to spend on salaries wasn't necessarily better. ;)


because of the team's large number of arbitration-eligible players, he's unsure how much money he has to spend. I would hope that even if Walt knew down to the penny how much he had to spend that he wouldn't spill it to a reporter. That would be a good way to get fleeced in negotiations for FAs!

redsfandan
11-04-2010, 01:55 PM
Good to hear. Hopefully Walt will be able to make a splash in the pool of good free agents available.

Griffey012
11-04-2010, 03:10 PM
So "more" is "better" now? This is earth-shattering! IIRC, O'Brien and Krivsky had to spend most of their tenures as GM trying to convince us fans that having more money to spend on salaries wasn't necessarily better. ;)

I would hope that even if Walt knew down to the penny how much he had to spend that he wouldn't spill it to a reporter. That would be a good way to get fleeced in negotiations for FAs!

That's cause we have talent now. Back then there is no point in spending a ton of money to bring in a good player who is surrounded by poo poo. The difference between 5th place and 4th place means nothing. The difference between 1st and 2nd means everything.

I like the move to bring back Cairo. He's definitely a useful guys at the end of the bench.

traderumor
11-04-2010, 05:51 PM
http://mlb-facts-and-rumors.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22297882/25647304

Walt also mentions that one of his goals is to find a leadoff man, that Chapman will start off in Cincy next year, that he is very comfy about going to battle with Janish at SS and that he has already spoken to Cairo's agent about bringing Miggy back for an encore.

Good stuff.So far his kryptonite. You could have cut and pasted that quote from last offseason and he ended up going with what he had and making Dusty figure it out.

edabbs44
11-04-2010, 06:15 PM
So far his kryptonite. You could have cut and pasted that quote from last offseason and he ended up going with what he had and making Dusty figure it out.

If it's not there, it's not there.

Ghosts of 1990
11-04-2010, 08:29 PM
Does this increase the chance of young guys getting LTC's or hurt the chances of?

Johnny Footstool
11-05-2010, 10:55 AM
Does this increase the chance of young guys getting LTC's or hurt the chances of?

I'd hope that guys like Bruce, Volquez, and Cueto would get offered LTCs as soon as possible. I'm fine with the Reds going to arbitration with everyone else.

redsfandan
11-05-2010, 01:25 PM
I'd hope that guys like Bruce, Volquez, and Cueto would get offered LTCs as soon as possible. I'm fine with the Reds going to arbitration with everyone else.
Bruce, Volquez, and Cueto but no Votto?

RedsManRick
11-05-2010, 01:58 PM
I thought it would be interesting to see just how common the kind of guy we're looking for is. So I searched BP's index for the following:

For single seasons, From 2000 to 2010, Played 50% of games at SS, LF, CF or RF, requiring
- OBP >=.350 (can get on base)
- SB>=30 (can run)
- Runs_fielding >=0 (doesn't suck in the field)
- Qualified for league batting title (stayed healthy)

In that 11 year stretch, it found 40 such seasons from 23 players. Are these arbitrary standards? Absolutely. I'm sure we could remove any one of those criteria and find many more seasons. But that's sort of the point. We're tying to find a player who fits a set of criteria which makes him a better candidate for leadoff than what we already have. It's harder to find than you might think.

And if you're willing to compromise on those things, I would ask why we're pursuing somebody to begin with. Will a fast guy who can't find 1B make our offense better? Will a good hitter who kills us in the field be a net positive contributor? I'd be happy to give up the SB, but I don't think our old-school management team would be.

I think the Reds already have their 2011 leadoff man. His name is Drew Stubbs. Sure, the OBP is lower than ideal, but it's a huge upgrade over 2010. Leadoff is one spot where batting average really means the least (assuming equal OBP) since you have the fewest base runners to advance via balls in play. Batting leadoff actually minimizes the cost of his strikeouts and having him on base will certainly result in some more fastballs for the #2 batter (Phillips I presume). Short of that, Ryan Hanigan is probably the best choice given his OBP -- it worked pretty well for the Rays last year with their version of Hanigan (John Jaso).

I'd love to find an upgrade in LF (Nick Markakis being my favorite target de jour), but short of that, I think the lineup that makes the most sense given the realities of our manager is this:

Stubbs
Phillips
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Gomes/Nix/Heisey
Hanigan
Janish



Player Year OBP BA SLG OPS SB CS FldRuns Pos
Ichiro Suzuki 2010 .359 .315 .394 .754 42 9 10 *9/D
Brett Gardner 2010 .383 .277 .379 .762 47 9 14 *78/D
Carl Crawford 2010 .356 .307 .495 .851 47 10 1 *7/D
Scott Podsednik 2009 .353 .304 .412 .764 30 13 10 *78D/9
Matt Kemp 2009 .352 .297 .490 .842 34 8 5 *8/9
Derek Jeter 2009 .406 .334 .465 .871 30 5 4 *6/D
Carl Crawford 2009 .364 .305 .452 .816 60 16 12 *7/D
Hanley Ramirez 2008 .400 .301 .540 .940 35 12 3 *6/D
Jose Reyes 2008 .358 .297 .475 .833 56 15 2 *6
Ichiro Suzuki 2008 .361 .310 .386 .747 43 4 15 *98/D
B.J. Upton 2008 .383 .273 .401 .784 44 16 15 *8/D
Shane Victorino 2008 .352 .293 .447 .799 36 11 7 *8/9
Eric Byrnes 2007 .353 .286 .460 .813 50 7 20 *798
Jose Reyes 2007 .354 .280 .421 .775 78 21 14 *6
Grady Sizemore 2007 .390 .277 .462 .852 33 10 6 *8/D
Ichiro Suzuki 2007 .396 .351 .431 .827 37 8 3 *8/D
Ichiro Suzuki 2006 .370 .322 .416 .786 45 2 10 *98/D
Alfonso Soriano 2006 .351 .277 .560 .911 41 17 16 *7
Dave Roberts 2006 .360 .293 .393 .752 49 6 13 *78
Jose Reyes 2006 .354 .300 .487 .841 64 17 8 *6
Hanley Ramirez 2006 .353 .292 .480 .833 51 15 1 *6
Ichiro Suzuki 2005 .350 .303 .436 .786 33 8 16 *9/D
Scott Podsednik 2005 .351 .290 .349 .700 59 23 5 *7/8
Bobby Abreu 2005 .405 .286 .474 .879 31 9 2 *9/D
Ichiro Suzuki 2004 .414 .372 .455 .869 36 11 27 *9/D
Carlos Beltran 2003 .389 .307 .522 .911 41 4 15 *8/D
Scott Podsednik 2003 .379 .314 .443 .822 43 10 21 *89/7
Edgar Renteria 2003 .394 .330 .480 .874 34 7 3 *6
Ichiro Suzuki 2003 .352 .312 .436 .788 34 8 23 *9
Bobby Abreu 2002 .413 .308 .521 .934 31 12 2 *98
Johnny Damon 2002 .356 .286 .443 .799 31 6 3 *8/D
Vlad Guerrero 2002 .417 .336 .593 1.010 40 20 4 *9
Ichiro Suzuki 2001 .381 .350 .457 .838 56 14 15 *9/D
Juan Pierre 2001 .378 .327 .415 .793 46 17 4 *8
Vlad Guerrero 2001 .377 .307 .566 .943 37 16 7 *9
Mike Cameron 2001 .353 .267 .480 .832 34 5 11 *8/D
Carlos Beltran 2001 .362 .306 .514 .876 31 1 5 *8/D
Bobby Abreu 2001 .393 .289 .543 .936 36 14 1 *9
Kenny Lofton 2000 .369 .278 .422 .791 30 7 4 *8/D
Rafael Furcal 2000 .394 .295 .382 .776 40 14 6 *64

Those 40 seasons come from just 23 players. And just 7 players did it more than once.



Ichiro Suzuki 8
Bobby Abreu 3
Jose Reyes 3
Scott Podsednik 3
Carl Crawford 2
Carlos Beltran 2
Hanley Ramirez 2
Alfonso Soriano 1
B.J. Upton 1
Brett Gardner 1
Dave Roberts 1
Derek Jeter 1
Edgar Renteria 1
Eric Byrnes 1
Grady Sizemore 1
Johnny Damon 1
Juan Pierre 1
Kenny Lofton 1
Matt Kemp 1
Mike Cameron 1
Rafael Furcal 1
Shane Victorino 1
Vlad Guerrero 1

bucksfan2
11-05-2010, 02:21 PM
Interesting analysis Rick. I would eliminate the SB target of 30. I think a guy with Brandon Phillips type speed would be fine enough in the lead off spot and he is a 20+ type SB guy/year.

Homer Bailey
11-05-2010, 02:47 PM
Interesting analysis Rick. I would eliminate the SB target of 30. I think a guy with Brandon Phillips type speed would be fine enough in the lead off spot and he is a 20+ type SB guy/year.

Brandon Phillips doesn't really have speed, IMO.

WMR
11-05-2010, 03:10 PM
I'd hope that guys like Bruce, Volquez, and Cueto would get offered LTCs as soon as possible. I'm fine with the Reds going to arbitration with everyone else.

LTC for Volquez? No thank you. He's got quite a bit of showing to do, IMO, before he's worthy of a long term deal.

redsfandan
11-05-2010, 03:10 PM
Those 40 seasons come from just 23 players. And just 7 players did it more than once.



Ichiro Suzuki 8
Bobby Abreu 3
Jose Reyes 3
Scott Podsednik 3
Carl Crawford 2
Carlos Beltran 2
Hanley Ramirez 2
Alfonso Soriano 1
B.J. Upton 1
Brett Gardner 1
Dave Roberts 1
Derek Jeter 1
Edgar Renteria 1
Eric Byrnes 1
Grady Sizemore 1
Johnny Damon 1
Juan Pierre 1
Kenny Lofton 1
Matt Kemp 1
Mike Cameron 1
Rafael Furcal 1
Shane Victorino 1
Vlad Guerrero 1
No Michael Bourn? I would've thought his '09 season would've put him on the list.

RedsManRick
11-05-2010, 05:00 PM
No Michael Bourn? I would've thought his '09 season would've put him on the list.

Looks like he didn't make the defensive cut that year. Clearly this list isn't perfect by any means -- it wasn't intended to be. But even if you double it, you're still talking about just a handful of guys each year who fit the criteria and those guys aren't often available.

RED VAN HOT
11-05-2010, 07:22 PM
Regarding money to spend, WJ seems to be saying that FA money is what remains after settling arbitrations and the FA players they want back. I don't expect it to be sufficient to make the Reds competitive for an impact player looking for a multi-year deal. I think that we can look forward to bargain contracts for players still available in February who can compete for the last outfield and infield spots. I think there will be many from which to choose. If any money is spent, I would look for it to go to a bullpen arm.

Regarding LTC, with control over the players for three more years, I don't look for any. I suspect the Reds will make good offers to avoid arbitration and the potential for bad feelings that ensue from it. LTC negotiations will be postponed until next off-season. even though there is risk that the price could go up. I hope I am wrong about this. I would like to see LTC for both Votto and Bruce with multiple club options to provide some measure of safety for the Reds.

Long term contracts for pitchers are high risk propositions that only a few clubs can afford. Even then, they are reserved for the pitching elite. I don't see either Volquez or Cueto deserving of a LTC. Both have work to do and the outcome is not certain. Moreover, there are a number of good young pitchers in the organization who might prove to be better and cheaper.

PuffyPig
11-05-2010, 10:07 PM
Regarding money to spend, WJ seems to be saying that FA money is what remains after settling arbitrations and the FA players they want back. I don't expect it to be sufficient to make the Reds competitive for an impact player looking for a multi-year deal. I think that we can look forward to bargain contracts for players still available in February who can compete for the last outfield and infield spots. I think there will be many from which to choose. If any money is spent, I would look for it to go to a bullpen arm.

Regarding LTC, with control over the players for three more years, I don't look for any. I suspect the Reds will make good offers to avoid arbitration and the potential for bad feelings that ensue from it. LTC negotiations will be postponed until next off-season. even though there is risk that the price could go up. I hope I am wrong about this. I would like to see LTC for both Votto and Bruce with multiple club options to provide some measure of safety for the Reds.

Long term contracts for pitchers are high risk propositions that only a few clubs can afford. Even then, they are reserved for the pitching elite. I don't see either Volquez or Cueto deserving of a LTC. Both have work to do and the outcome is not certain. Moreover, there are a number of good young pitchers in the organization who might prove to be better and cheaper.

I think that was a great summary.

Johnny Footstool
11-05-2010, 11:05 PM
Bruce, Volquez, and Cueto but no Votto?

I'm thinking Votto isn't long for Cincinnati. It might be possible for the Reds to buy out his arbitration years, but he'll want to test the FA market by age 30.

Johnny Footstool
11-05-2010, 11:09 PM
LTC for Volquez? No thank you. He's got quite a bit of showing to do, IMO, before he's worthy of a long term deal.

Volquez has electric stuff. It will never be cheaper to sign him to a long-term deal. If you wait for him to "prove" something, the dollars start multiplying.