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View Full Version : What are your projections for Drew Stubbs in 2011 and



icehole3
11-05-2010, 10:35 AM
could he be the cleanup batter thats needed??? ;)

avg/HRs/RBI/OPS

Chip R
11-05-2010, 11:13 AM
He's a bust.

Oh, sorry. Wrong forum. :devil:

Seriously, what I'd like to see from him is to spend some time against some kind of competition - be it instructional or winter league - refining his bunting skills. If he comes up to bat 4 times in a game over the winter, I'd like to see him drop 2 bunts down. I've seen him work at it before games but I am not one who believes that bunting can be improved by getting 65 mph pitches thrown at you from 45 feet. That's not going to prepare you for a major league fastball or slider or curveball.

The Operator
11-05-2010, 12:58 PM
I don't know that he's consistent enough yet to be counted on as a cleanup guy. Love having him in the order though.

.270-26-81 .790 OPS

RedsManRick
11-05-2010, 01:05 PM
I won't project runs and rbi since those are a function of his lineup slot, but I think he goes .265/.340/.460 with 25 HR and 35 SB.

Scrap Irony
11-05-2010, 03:26 PM
I think his next season will look a lot like this one, aside from a significantly improved UZR. (In fact, as the team is constructed right now, I suspect he'll own the third-highest WAR of anyone on the team.)

Put me down for 260/335/450/785 with 30-35 SB. And a GG level CF.

icehole3
11-05-2010, 03:44 PM
Scrap, I think he'll be a 30-30 guy too, I think he'll bunt better and his average will be around 280-290 and drive in at least 90 RBI

redsfandan
11-05-2010, 04:13 PM
Scrap, I think he'll be a 30-30 guy too, I think he'll bunt better and his average will be around 280-290 and drive in at least 90 RBI
30-30? Maybe. .280? Eh, maybe someday. .290? I'd bet against that.

marcshoe
11-05-2010, 05:21 PM
What kind of obp do you guys think he needs to have to reach his potential? With his speed, this would seem to really be a major factor. I'd like for him pick it up to .340 to .350 this year and see what happens. If he could match the higher numbers he put up in the minors, that would be even better.

RedsManRick
11-05-2010, 05:58 PM
What kind of obp do you guys think he needs to have to reach his potential? With his speed, this would seem to really be a major factor. I'd like for him pick it up to .340 to .350 this year and see what happens. If he could match the higher numbers he put up in the minors, that would be even better.

OBP is basically a combination of:

(How often do you hit HR) + (How often do you walk) + (How often do you reach base on balls in play * How often do you put the ball in play)

The respective indicators for those things being HR/PA, BB/PA, BABIP and K/PA. Improving your OBP requires moving at least 1 of those levers.

The HR rate he showed is great and does help his OBP. But I don't think there's much room for expansion there. He's not likely to hit 40 HR and if he does, it can't come at the expense of OBP or he's probably hurting his overall production. For many players, that higher HR% comes at the expense of a higher K%. On net, this often makes sense. 1 HR and a few strikeouts is worth the same as putting all of those balls in play. But balls in play are more valuable for guys like Stubbs than for anybody else in baseball. He might be better off hitting fewer HR if it means a bunch more balls in play.

His walk rate is already a solid 9.4%. For a guy pitcher's aren't actively avoiding, that's really good and not likely to go up much.

His BABIP is already a very strong .330. For a guy with his speed, that is sustainable. It could theoretically go up a bit more with more bunt hits and/or line drives, but I don't think we should count on those necessarily. I'm not sure if .330.

And that brings us to his K rate. We all know Ks are bad. But it's not because of a lost opportunity for a productive out. It's because it's a guaranteed non-on base event. Only two major leaguers who qualified for the batting title had a K rate worse than Stubbs last year: Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds. Two mashers if there ever were. Just below him you see guys like Carlos Pena, Ryan Howard and Mike Napoli. These are guys with .250 ISO potential. Their value comes from that power and that power comes from a swing that generates a lot of misses. Further, they aren't much in the way of runners and aren't going to beat out weakly hit balls. That's not Stubbs.

I don't advocate a beat-the-ball-into-the-ground approach, giving up power voluntarily and eschewing walks. But Stubbs needs to find a way to shore up his 2-strike approach. The quickest (and perhaps only) way for him to add value to his overall game is to cut down on the Ks and put more balls in play. He's not an Adam Dunn type whose sheer size and build would make it difficult for him to be a better contact hitter. Stubbs is wiry and has plenty of fast-twitch muscle. If I'm the Reds coaching staff, I'm spending the offseason working with him on pitch recognition and a cut down 2-strike swing. It's possible. Evan Longoria has famously worked on this and lowered his K% from 27.2 to 24.0 to 21.6. His OBP has risen from .343 to .364 to .372. These are not unrelated.

Anyways, that's my Stubbs' OBP diatribe for the day.

RED VAN HOT
11-05-2010, 08:41 PM
I agree that the K rate is the hang up to batting cleanup. A plus with Stubbs, however, is that he is not going to ground into very many DP's. That makes walking Votto to get to him less attractive.

My question for those more knowledgeable than I is this. Can improving his ability to pick up bunt hits occasionally eventually result in lowering his K rate. It seems to me that it complicates life for opposing the pitchers. A cleanup hitter in an RBI situation that occasionally drops a bunt is not something often seen, but with Bruce and Rolen following, would it really be a bad play?

marcshoe
11-05-2010, 10:21 PM
I could do the research on this, I guess, but it's easier to ask :p: : What caused Stubbs to have consistently higher obp numbers before he got to Louisville?

Spitball
11-05-2010, 11:23 PM
Being the number four hitter brings expectations and pressure. It often changes a hitter's mindset. I'm much more comfortable with an experienced hitter in the four hole. I'd rather not put Stubbs into that role for a year or two.

Homer Bailey
11-06-2010, 12:14 AM
I could do the research on this, I guess, but it's easier to ask :p: : What caused Stubbs to have consistently higher obp numbers before he got to Louisville?

A little bit higher BABIP, higher walk rate, and a lower K rate from looking at his fangraphs page.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9328&position=OF

icehole3
11-06-2010, 07:47 AM
I know Stubbs isnt in Eric Davis territory, but does he live in the same area code as Davis, in other words does he compare somewhat to E.D.

mth123
11-06-2010, 08:03 AM
Stubbs is a clear plus at this point, but I'm not ready to go as far as many others and I still think he'll have long periods of being an easy out mixed in with some hot streaks. I hope the Reds have a 5th OF/caddy who can give him a couple days off when he's slumping (a good use for Laynce Nix IMO).

I'll predict:

.240/.325/.430 with 18 HR, 25 SBs and a clear step forward defensively where he becomes the premier CF in the NL.

jojo
11-06-2010, 12:40 PM
I could do the research on this, I guess, but it's easier to ask :p: : What caused Stubbs to have consistently higher obp numbers before he got to Louisville?

He got on base more often... :cool:

TRF
11-07-2010, 12:43 AM
A year ago in the Votto prediction thread, I stated Votto was on the verge of Pujols territory. So without breaking my arm patting my back, I'll now give you my Stubbs prediction.

It's no secret I wasn't a fan of his game. Lincecum aside, he didn't really hit at any level of the minors. By now we know the Reds got the pick wrong, but did they get it more or less wrong than other teams? Stubbs has the second most HR's and RBI's (30, 94) of all position players taken in the first round in 2006, 2nd to Longoria. He has the most SB's (40).

In short, considering the role the Reds placed him in during his minor league tenure, I'm shocked. Physically, he's got all the tools, but his approach to the game as a leadoff hitter never seemed to mesh with his tools. He's clearly better lower in the order where more emphasis can be placed on his power. He's a bit of a K machine. Offensively he's Adam Dunn lite. 30HR power. He won't walk like Dunn, but with his speed he'll eek out a bunch of infield hits. That'll help the BA, but won't offset his propensity for making outs too much. He's got to do better. Having an OBP of .300 is bad, but 3 months at .301 or lower, and as low as .259, well that is borderline awful. That stated, i think you learn by failing, and he turned it on the last 2 months of the season.

So my prediction is a .350 OBP, and a .480+ SLG with 32 HR's. He'll swipe another 40+ bases too making him one of the best offensive CF's in baseball.

Will M
11-07-2010, 01:38 AM
Baseball-reference lists Stubbs 2nd half stats for 2010. (I believe this is post all star break). 281 avg / 355 obp / 502 slg (857 OPS) with 13 SB

Since Drew was almost a rookie in 2010 I think we were all happy to see him improve as the season went by. His 2nd half numbers were a huge improvement over his first half numbers. I am going to go out on a limb & predict a line similar to his 2010 2nd half as his 2011 total. say avg 280/obp 355/ slg 500 with 30+ steals. Thats an all star center fielder.

Drew can become an elite player by doing two things (IMO):
1) adjust his approach with 2 strikes
2) learn to bunt. when the other team isn't defending the bunt Drew should lay one down. With his speed this seems like a no brainer. Once the defense has to defend against Drew bunting it causes them to play 1B/3B in close which lowers their reaction time against non bunt grounders and line drives.

Scrap Irony
11-07-2010, 09:43 AM
280/355/500 with Gold Glove defense puts him third overall offensively last season behind Josh Hamilton, Carlos Gonzalez, and right right around the same as Colby Rasmus.

Add in his likely positional improvement defensively and Stubbs would be right at a 5 or 6 win player.

In other words, he'd be among the elite in baseball.

Will M
11-07-2010, 12:12 PM
280/355/500 with Gold Glove defense puts him third overall offensively last season behind Josh Hamilton, Carlos Gonzalez, and right right around the same as Colby Rasmus.

Add in his likely positional improvement defensively and Stubbs would be right at a 5 or 6 win player.

In other words, he'd be among the elite in baseball.

OK. Thats what he did in the 2nd half of 2010. He simply needs to keep doing what he did during the 2nd half of 2010 for an entire season.

edabbs44
11-08-2010, 02:55 PM
I can totally see Stubbs becoming the new "guy who has crazy expectations being placed upon him, then getting beaten up for not living up to those expectations".

backbencher
11-08-2010, 05:13 PM
OK. Thats what he did in the 2nd half of 2010. He simply needs to keep doing what he did during the 2nd half of 2010 for an entire season.

Ah, the Chris Dickerson argument.

Stubbs is fascinating in that, even after a full year in the bigs, his ceiling and floor remain miles apart.

I'll bet on a slight regression. The league has seen him. Yes, it saw him before his big second half of 2010 as well, but in 2011 he will be expected to be a bigger contributor and therefore a bigger part of the opposing team's gameplan.

Will M
11-08-2010, 07:50 PM
Ah, the Chris Dickerson argument.

Stubbs is fascinating in that, even after a full year in the bigs, his ceiling and floor remain miles apart.

I'll bet on a slight regression. The league has seen him. Yes, it saw him before his big second half of 2010 as well, but in 2011 he will be expected to be a bigger contributor and therefore a bigger part of the opposing team's gameplan.

I am going to respectfully disagree.

Stubbs is already better than I thought Chris Dickerson ever would be. I always felt Chris was a guy who deserved a shot at a job as the LH part of a platoon in CF. If he failed then he was 4th/5th outfielder material.

Why should Stubbs not get better? Sure he may have a sophomore slump.
But I think he will not. Lots & lots of talented guys improve over their first few years in the bigs. Once a guy is say 28 or 29 years old then what you see is what you get. But Stubbs is 25 years old. And yet folks seem to think he'll simply repeat his overall 2010. I think Stubbs is in fact the real McCoy. He will improve is numbers each year over the next 2-3.

As to the 'league adjusting' issue I think Stubbs is too good a talent for that. Some guys have the talent to get to the show yet they are not stars. ie Lance Nix. They have holes in their game & the league adjusts. Even just average guys have holes in their games. But the truly star players get better not worse. I think Stubbs is in that category.

I have always heard Stubbs being compared to Mike Cameron.
Cameron's career: 250 avg, 340 obp, 447 slug.
Stubbs 2010: 255 avg, 329 obp, 444 slug.
Right now Stubbs is as good as Mike Cameron has been over his career.

Stubbs was worth 3.2 WAR in 2010 despite some suspect UZR numbers.

I've joined Doug on the Stubbs bandwagon. He is going to be a very very good player over the next few years.