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Will M
11-08-2010, 04:05 PM
Here is yet another musing on how Scott Podsednick is a good fit for the Reds who 'need a leadoff batter for left field'. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/11/2011-top-50-free-agents.html
I keep reading these speculations & the more I read them the more I get that slight nausea feeling rising up from my stomach. Please Walt: NO!!!!!!!!!!

1) he was a 0.4 WAR player last year
2) in the last 4 years he has a total of 0.9 WAR
3) he has no power
4) if he could play a strong centerfield he would have some value. however, he isn't a good defender even in left
5) Lance Nix ( 2.6 WAR total over the last two years) is a better player than Podsednick & I want a guy like Lance on the bench not as a starter
6) in short he would not help the team

The Reds need strong offensive production from whoever plays left field. Its left field not shortstop. Its one of THE key spots where a team needs a thumper. At a minimum we need a LH version of Gomes to make a platoon (and I would like to aim higher than that).

Lets all hope Walt is a lot smarter than all the folks in the media who seem to think the Reds should get Podsednick.

edabbs44
11-08-2010, 04:53 PM
Last year he had a 1.8 WAR, according to Fangraphs.

Griffey012
11-08-2010, 05:17 PM
I am not sure what happened to Scotty Pods in '06,'07, and '08, but he really fell off and fell off quick. However the last 2 seasons, he has been a .4 WAR player and a 1.8 WAR player. His production really fell off once he came to the Dodgers, and it seems over his career he has played much, much better in the AL vs. the NL. While I am not supporting the acquisition of Podsednik to fill our LF hole, he is not nearly as bad as the OP is making him seem. There are worse alternatives, but wouldn't spend more than 2 mil on a shot at Podsednik.

OnBaseMachine
11-08-2010, 05:54 PM
I want no part of Podsednik. I was hoping he would remain with the Dodgers just so it would eliminate any chance of the Reds signing him.

hebroncougar
11-08-2010, 08:06 PM
I think Walt is smart enough to avoid Posednick.

camisadelgolf
11-08-2010, 08:13 PM
I think Walt is smart enough to avoid Posednick.
I agree, but I'm not 100% sure. *cough*Taveras*cough*

RedsManRick
11-08-2010, 10:27 PM
I agree, but I'm not 100% sure. *cough*Taveras*cough*

Taveras was a plus defending CF. Pods is a poor defending LF.

Pods' WAR per fangraphs:
2007: -0.1
2008: -0.4
2009: 1.8
2010: 0.4

edabbs44
11-08-2010, 10:37 PM
Taveras was a plus defending CF. Pods is a poor defending LF.

Pods' WAR per fangraphs:
2007: -0.1
2008: -0.4
2009: 1.8
2010: 0.4

What makes you think he is a poor fielder in LF?

mth123
11-08-2010, 10:41 PM
What makes you think he is a poor fielder in LF?

Ever watch him play? I'll take Gomes. Or Dunn. He's a better defender than 2005 and later Griffey (the worst I've ever seen IMO). Overall, he's better than Willy. After that, please keep this guy away from our team.

edabbs44
11-08-2010, 10:51 PM
Ever watch him play? I'll take Gomes. Or Dunn. He's a better defender than 2005 and later Griffey (the worst I've ever seen IMO). Overall, he's better than Willy. After that, please keep this guy away from our team.

I haven't watched him enough to make any comment on his fielding, to be honest. I'm curious as to the outright hatred for this guy.

RedsManRick
11-08-2010, 11:10 PM
What makes you think he is a poor fielder in LF?

I've watched him play LF many times both in person and on TV. UZR thinks he's performed poorly. The Fans Scouting Report has him at exactly average. The only thing he does well is run fast.

Perhaps "poor" is too strong. How about below average? Mediocre? Does it matter?

OnBaseMachine
11-08-2010, 11:13 PM
I've never been overly impressed with Podsednik's defense. His arm is among the worst in all of baseball.

edabbs44
11-08-2010, 11:31 PM
I've watched him play LF many times both in person and on TV. UZR thinks he's performed poorly. The Fans Scouting Report has him at exactly average. The only thing he does well is run fast.

Perhaps "poor" is too strong. How about below average? Mediocre? Does it matter?

I think those words are pretty different.

UZR shows him as "poor" only last year, looking fairly average on the whole (if I am reading that correctly).. If he is in fact average then characterizing him as poor is pretty inaccurate, IMO.

Ron Madden
11-09-2010, 04:26 AM
I want no part of Podsednik. I was hoping he would remain with the Dodgers just so it would eliminate any chance of the Reds signing him.

So was I.

Ron Madden
11-09-2010, 04:41 AM
I think those words are pretty different.

UZR shows him as "poor" only last year, looking fairly average on the whole (if I am reading that correctly).. If he is in fact average then characterizing him as poor is pretty inaccurate, IMO.

He is a below average defensive outfielder.

Don't be fooled by seeing him make a diving catch every now and then. his speed has kept him from being down right awful. He gets a bad jump on the ball off the bat, he takes bad routs to the ball and he has a noodle arm.

As for outright hatred I don't think any of us want him to burn in hell. We just don't want him in a Reds uniform.

mth123
11-09-2010, 05:29 AM
I haven't watched him enough to make any comment on his fielding, to be honest. I'm curious as to the outright hatred for this guy.

He's actually been better the last couple years, but speed guys don't wash with me unless they can do other things. He nornally doesn't get on base, has minimal power and is a poor defender. 2004 through 2008 had him topping out with a .700 OPS. People overrate a guy like this because he steals bases and helps their fantasy team, but even in 2004 when he stole 70 bases, his OBP was .313 and his OPS was .677. Add that he gets thrown out a lot and even his normally low OBP overstates the number of times he's actually on base in front of the team's big hitters. In 2005 when he was on a winning White Sox team, his .700 OPS overstated his impact. His .351 OBP, which seems pretty decent, was offset by getting caught 23 times trying to steal and he only managed to score a ho hum 80 runs while hitting full time atop an order that was good enough to win the World Series. Dusty would fall in love with his steals and he'd lead-off nearly every day. Add that he'll be 35 in 2011 and his speed may not even be what it once was and he's still a disaster on defense who is limited to LF. If the team is going to add a player like that, he better OPS .900+ and be a threat to make a guy pay for pitching around Votto and Bruce.

Curiousity satisfied?

kpresidente
11-09-2010, 10:34 AM
Worded carefully...

I don't want Scott Podsednick, but there are some scenario's that involve him that I'd prefer over others that don't, those others being (unfortunately) real possibilities given our management.

For instance:

I'd take a Heisey/Podsednick platoon over Gomes starting all year.

I'd also take a Heisey/Podsednick platoon batting leadoff and pushing Janish to the bottom of the order over a Gomes/Nix platoon that means Stubbs batting leadoff and Janish second.

That being said, there's about 10 other realistic scenario's I'd take over any of the above.

RedsManRick
11-09-2010, 06:20 PM
I think those words are pretty different.

UZR shows him as "poor" only last year, looking fairly average on the whole (if I am reading that correctly).. If he is in fact average then characterizing him as poor is pretty inaccurate, IMO.



Year UZR Age
2003 -7.9 27
2004 2.5 28
2005 8.6 29
2006 3.0 30
2007 1.9 31
2008 -3.9 32
2009 0.2 33
2010 -10.5 34

Should we just ignore last year? In assessing true talent, last year is the single most influential data point. If a player is considered average coming in to the year and then has a very poor year, I'm not going to assume he's still average -- particularly when that player's career has followed a pretty standard aging curve and the decline happens as he's entering his mid 30s.

How would you weight his recent seasons? A basic 3-2-1 weighting puts him at about -6. I wouldn't call that average. Even a straight average puts him at -5. But if you want to completely ignore 2010 or give it equal weight to 2005, be my guest.

Hoosier Red
11-09-2010, 06:40 PM
As for outright hatred I don't think any of us want him to burn in hell. .

Well it depends, he seems like the type who would put in an annoyingly scrappy season for the Cardinals, so let's not let him off the hook just yet.
;)

Griffey012
11-09-2010, 09:07 PM
Year UZR Age
2003 -7.9 27
2004 2.5 28
2005 8.6 29
2006 3.0 30
2007 1.9 31
2008 -3.9 32
2009 0.2 33
2010 -10.5 34

Should we just ignore last year? In assessing true talent, last year is the single most influential data point. If a player is considered average coming in to the year and then has a very poor year, I'm not going to assume he's still average -- particularly when that player's career has followed a pretty standard aging curve and the decline happens as he's entering his mid 30s.

How would you weight his recent seasons? A basic 3-2-1 weighting puts him at about -6. I wouldn't call that average. Even a straight average puts him at -5. But if you want to completely ignore 2010 or give it equal weight to 2005, be my guest.

So should we assume OCab is a better defensive SS than Paul Janish? Cause that's what UZR says. You can't even begin to attempt to try and judge a player's defense off 1 season of UZR. I'm not trying to defend Scotty Pods because he is a pretty mediocre player, it's just inaccurate to judge his defense off his past season's UZR.

RedsManRick
11-09-2010, 10:11 PM
So should we assume OCab is a better defensive SS than Paul Janish? Cause that's what UZR says. You can't even begin to attempt to try and judge a player's defense off 1 season of UZR. I'm not trying to defend Scotty Pods because he is a pretty mediocre player, it's just inaccurate to judge his defense off his past season's UZR.

Good thing I didn't judge Pods on just 1 season's worth of data. I looked at 3 years of it. And do the same with Janish and Cabrera and account for playing time (since UZR is a counting stat) and Janish comes out ahead.

Griffey012
11-09-2010, 10:40 PM
Good thing I didn't judge Pods on just 1 season's worth of data. I looked at 3 years of it. And do the same with Janish and Cabrera and account for playing time (since UZR is a counting stat) and Janish comes out ahead.

My mistake, I overlooked your last paragraph, coming from you I should have known better that you weren't really just talking in terms of last years UZR.

Mario-Rijo
11-14-2010, 01:59 PM
How about a young Scotty Pods type. Brett Gardner anyone? Had a .383 OBP% last year (79 BB's in 569 PA's + a .277 BA) and 47 stolen bases in 56 attempts. Plays LF, not sure how well. He's also not making much over minimum, not sure if he is arb. eligible or not. If the Yanks sign Crawford I'd pursue that pretty vigorously. Not sure what it would take.

RedsManRick
11-14-2010, 05:34 PM
How about a young Scotty Pods type. Brett Gardner anyone? Had a .383 OBP% last year (79 BB's in 569 PA's + a .277 BA) and 47 stolen bases in 56 attempts. Plays LF, not sure how well. He's also not making much over minimum, not sure if he is arb. eligible or not. If the Yanks sign Crawford I'd pursue that pretty vigorously. Not sure what it would take.

Similar type, sort of. Pods has never walked more the 58 times in a season and an OBP north of .355 just once when his BABIP was .361. Gardner is a count-working machine, leading baseball with a ridiculous 4.61 P/PA -- next was Daric Barton at 4.40. I would LOVE to have him at the top of the lineup, but something tells me that if he were put on the market that the competition for him would be fierce. I think the Yankees would be more likely to trade Granderson if they went after Crawford, but Gardner would be a nice target given our needs.

kpresidente
11-14-2010, 08:13 PM
I believe Gardner was the best LF in baseball last year according to UZR/150, but I also think it's a mute point because the Yankees have any intention of going after Crawford.