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Will M
11-09-2010, 01:18 AM
Fangraphs (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4314&position=1B) now lists this data. Key Reds predictions are below.
Anybody know if this has been historically close or just voodoo?

319/413/577 Votto - slightly worse
280/352/517 Bruce - minimally better
277/356/456 Rolen - worse
270/324/428 Phillips - slightly worse
262/338/435 Stubbs - minimally better
281/370/377 Hanigan - much worse
232/308/335 Janish - much worse
275/336/478 Heisey - much better & better than Stubbs !?
259/339/465 Gomes - better

The Operator
11-09-2010, 02:23 AM
An .814 OPS from Heisey? I'd take that.

mth123
11-09-2010, 03:47 AM
Fangraphs (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4314&position=1B) now lists this data. Key Reds predictions are below.
Anybody know if this has been historically close or just voodoo?

319/413/577 Votto - slightly worse
280/352/517 Bruce - minimally better
277/356/456 Rolen - worse
270/324/428 Phillips - slightly worse
262/338/435 Stubbs - minimally better
281/370/377 Hanigan - much worse
232/308/335 Janish - much worse
275/336/478 Heisey - much better & better than Stubbs !?
259/339/465 Gomes - better

I actually think this looks pretty close to what I'd predict. Gomes and Heisey are both better than I'd guess (though if Gomes is limited to playing against LHP he'll be better than that). Drops predicted from Rolen, Phillips, Hanigan, Janish and even Votto point to the need for a bat in LF which this group evidently thinks might be Heisey/Gomes. I think Bruce will be a little better than this (primarily in the slugging dept). This is still too much slugging for Rolen IMO. I'm guessing he drops to the .425 range.

Will M
11-09-2010, 10:54 AM
I actually think this looks pretty close to what I'd predict. Gomes and Heisey are both better than I'd guess (though if Gomes is limited to playing against LHP he'll be better than that). Drops predicted from Rolen, Phillips, Hanigan, Janish and even Votto point to the need for a bat in LF which this group evidently thinks might be Heisey/Gomes. I think Bruce will be a little better than this (primarily in the slugging dept). This is still too much slugging for Rolen IMO. I'm guessing he drops to the .425 range.

When I looked at these I also felt that the dropoffs from a lot of the Reds seemed reasonable. Rolen was the one guy who I felt would dropoff even more that they predict.

I think Bruce & Stubbs will do a little better than these numbers.

Heisey: wow. This one seems odd. Are the fans here on Redszone underestimating the guy? It seems most here have completely written him off both in terms of what he could do for the Reds & what he might bring in trade.

bucksfan2
11-09-2010, 10:58 AM
Heisey: wow. This one seems odd. Are the fans here on Redszone underestimating the guy? It seems most here have completely written him off both in terms of what he could do for the Reds & what he might bring in trade.

I don't see it. I don't like his swing and don't think he ever will be anything more than a nice 4th OF type. Not necessarily a bad thing just more reality.

blumj
11-09-2010, 11:22 AM
FWIW, I don't believe any of the projection systems are particularly reliable at projecting prospects or young players with little MLB experience.

dfs
11-09-2010, 11:39 AM
Anybody know if this has been historically close or just voodoo?

heh.
The error on these numbers is large enough to make them......guesses.

Some of the assumptions used in forming these numbers ...(how many years to go back. How to weight previous years w/respect to younger players.What to do with minor league #s.) are largely responsible for some of the surprises.

I don't believe Janish or Hanigan will give that much back, but I do understand how you can look at the numbers and come to these conclusions.

Chris Heisey.....Boy, I don't know what to say. Are the reds chumps for wasting him or are they wise for insulating themselves by bringing in other talent? .....I don't know. I don't think you give away starting corner outfield slots based on these kinds of predictions.

TheNext44
11-09-2010, 11:54 AM
Just for the record, these are projections, not predictions.

James is not saying this is what he thinks these players will do in 2011, but what he thinks they are most likely to do. A subtle and important difference.

Historically, he has been overly optimistic with young hitters, so the Heisey projection isn't out of character, but most likely will be over stated.

Rojo
11-09-2010, 02:09 PM
They have his BA going up by 20 point and the OBP by 12. That doesn't seem unreasonable for someone who just finished his first 100 MLB games and is entering his mid-20's.

Plus he had trouble with lefties. Righties usually remedy that with reps.

The slugging projection might be a stretch.

dougdirt
11-09-2010, 02:46 PM
FWIW, I don't believe any of the projection systems are particularly reliable at projecting prospects or young players with little MLB experience.

This is very true. Most projection systems are often pretty solid at projecting what 80% of 1500+ PA hitters in the majors are likely to do the next year. We often have enough data on those guys to know what they are capable of and they are often old enough that large gains in production aren't likely. It is the guys without large enough sample sizes or guys that are really young that these systems are tough to predict with because their true talent level may not be evident in a smaller sample size because of their age or lack of experience.

fearofpopvol1
11-09-2010, 03:08 PM
Seems pretty reasonable overall, although I don't think Heisey will be better than Stubbs.

Playadlc
11-12-2010, 03:34 AM
What seems to be a recurring theme with James’ projections is the inability to translate minor league or limited major league experience to a full season of major league numbers. Looking at other teams, some of the projections he has up for guys like Dominic Brown, Mike Moustakas and Ryan Kalish are just downright absurd.

bucksfan2
11-12-2010, 08:23 AM
How much of James predictions are done from watching actual games as opposed to just using formulas? I just find it odd that someone would be so high on two guys, Heisey and Dickerson, who have some serious flaws in their game. Anyone who watches Heisey will notice that unless he tweaks his swing he will struggle at the major league level. And Dickerson we have been down that road before with him.

Cooper
11-12-2010, 08:24 AM
Something to keep in mind: minor league translations aren't the same as projections and i think most projections now assume that a hitter will have the league average batting average ball in play factored in....in other words, there's no way to account for a player's projection being effected by a wide variance in BABIP.

blumj
11-12-2010, 08:46 AM
How much of James predictions are done from watching actual games as opposed to just using formulas? I just find it odd that someone would be so high on two guys, Heisey and Dickerson, who have some serious flaws in their game. Anyone who watches Heisey will notice that unless he tweaks his swing he will struggle at the major league level. And Dickerson we have been down that road before with him.
It's just his basic formula applied to everyone. Any real analytical work Bill James does belongs to the Red Sox, so you're not going to find it in a book or on a website.