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camisadelgolf
11-12-2010, 05:29 PM
There's a giant elephant in the room, and it's Juan Francisco's plate discipline. Okay, maybe it's not quite an 'elephant in the room' since we've talked at great length about it on RedsZone. Still, many of us believe he needs to make a major improvement in his plate discipline to maintain his success while many others feel a change in his plate approach isn't necessary.

For those of you who think he needs a change, how much of a change is needed? In a small sample, he walks 8.3% of the time and strikes out 32.1% of the time. So how much do those numbers need to change in order for him to have 'acceptable' plate discipline?

For those of you who think he doesn't need a major improvement, what is your basis? Who are some other players that have had success with a similar plate approach?

Here are some numbers to ponder. Using his career numbers, Juan Francisco would average 272 plate appearances, 23 walks, and 87 strikeouts over the course of 162 games. That's 3.87 strikeouts per walk, which is significantly better than his minor league rate of 5.94 strikeouts per walk. How many players have gotten away with that in MLB? I decided to look at the last 50 years and come up with a list of players who have put up a rate like that.

OPS+ POS BB SO NAME YEARS
113 3B 16 97 Chris Johnson 2009-10
112 OF 200 841 Bo Jackson 1986-94
103 1B 77 418 Ricky Jordan 1988-96
100 OF 100 418 Pedro Munoz 1990-6
99 2B 78 328 Howie Kendrick 2006-10
97 OF 88 363 Adam Jones 2006-10
95 OF 226 992 Cory Snyder 1986-94
91 C 58 343 Bill Schroeder 1983-90
90 SS 43 223 Orlando Miller 1994-7
89 SS 203 1000 Shawon Dunston 1985-2002
84 C 125 800 Miguel olivo 2002-10
84 OF 189 856 Corey Patterson 2000-10
82 C 67 332 Todd Greene 1996-2006
82 OF 81 330 Karim Garcia 1995-2004
78 C 20 93 Orlando McFarlane 1962-8
77 3B 120 620 Craig Paquette 1993-2003
75 C 72 327 Sal Fasano 1996-2008
74 1B 16 103 Brad Eldred 2005-10
74 3B 43 211 Jeff Hamilton 1986-91
73 SS 150 588 Pat Meares 1993-2001
72 OF 72 313 Carlos Gomez 2007-10
71 OF 19 130 Jim Fuller 1973-7
70 1B 19 91 Scott Thorman 2006-7
69 C 14 145 Eliezer Alfonzo 2006-10
69 SS 37 234 Jeff Kunkel 1984-92
68 3B 38 205 Chris Truby 2000-3
68 C 98 396 Bob Melvin 1985-94
66 SS 85 364 Ronny Cedeno 2005-10
66 SS 76 324 Alvaro Espinoza 1984-97
64 OF 21 123 Reggie Abercrombie 2006-8
63 1B 22 115 Mike Laga 1982-90
63 2B 86 337 Dave McKay 1975-82
62 C 83 354 Jose Molina 1999-2010
62 C 80 336 Tom Egan 1965-75
61 SS 59 301 Andres Thomas 1985-90
60 C 80 387 Joel Skinner 1983-91
58 SS 59 317 Todd Cruz 1978-84
57 C 21 117 Ned Yost 1980-5
57 OF 50 207 Dee Brown 1998-2007
56 SS 25 254 Rob Picciolo 1977-85

As you can see, if history is any indication, things don't bode well for Francisco. In the poll above, please state which career in terms of pure offense that you see as most likely for Juan Francisco provided he's given the opportunity.

Brutus
11-12-2010, 06:10 PM
There's a giant elephant in the room, and it's Juan Francisco's plate discipline. Okay, maybe it's not quite an 'elephant in the room' since we've talked at great length about it on RedsZone. Still, many of us believe he needs to make a major improvement in his plate discipline to maintain his success while many others feel a change in his plate approach isn't necessary.

For those of you who think he needs a change, how much of a change is needed? In a small sample, he walks 8.3% of the time and strikes out 32.1% of the time. So how much do those numbers need to change in order for him to have 'acceptable' plate discipline?

For those of you who think he doesn't need a major improvement, what is your basis? Who are some other players that have had success with a similar plate approach?

Here are some numbers to ponder. Using his career numbers, Juan Francisco would average 272 plate appearances, 23 walks, and 87 strikeouts over the course of 162 games. That's 3.87 strikeouts per walk, which is significantly better than his minor league rate of 5.94 strikeouts per walk. How many players have gotten away with that in MLB? I decided to look at the last 50 years and come up with a list of players who have put up a rate like that.

OPS+ POS BB SO NAME YEARS
113 3B 16 97 Chris Johnson 2009-10
112 OF 200 841 Bo Jackson 1986-94
103 1B 77 418 Ricky Jordan 1988-96
100 OF 100 418 Pedro Munoz 1990-6
99 2B 78 328 Howie Kendrick 2006-10
97 OF 88 363 Adam Jones 2006-10
95 OF 226 992 Cory Snyder 1986-94
91 C 58 343 Bill Schroeder 1983-90
90 SS 43 223 Orlando Miller 1994-7
89 SS 203 1000 Shawon Dunston 1985-2002
84 C 125 800 Miguel olivo 2002-10
84 OF 189 856 Corey Patterson 2000-10
82 C 67 332 Todd Greene 1996-2006
82 OF 81 330 Karim Garcia 1995-2004
78 C 20 93 Orlando McFarlane 1962-8
77 3B 120 620 Craig Paquette 1993-2003
75 C 72 327 Sal Fasano 1996-2008
74 1B 16 103 Brad Eldred 2005-10
74 3B 43 211 Jeff Hamilton 1986-91
73 SS 150 588 Pat Meares 1993-2001
72 OF 72 313 Carlos Gomez 2007-10
71 OF 19 130 Jim Fuller 1973-7
70 1B 19 91 Scott Thorman 2006-7
69 C 14 145 Eliezer Alfonzo 2006-10
69 SS 37 234 Jeff Kunkel 1984-92
68 3B 38 205 Chris Truby 2000-3
68 C 98 396 Bob Melvin 1985-94
66 SS 85 364 Ronny Cedeno 2005-10
66 SS 76 324 Alvaro Espinoza 1984-97
64 OF 21 123 Reggie Abercrombie 2006-8
63 1B 22 115 Mike Laga 1982-90
63 2B 86 337 Dave McKay 1975-82
62 C 83 354 Jose Molina 1999-2010
62 C 80 336 Tom Egan 1965-75
61 SS 59 301 Andres Thomas 1985-90
60 C 80 387 Joel Skinner 1983-91
58 SS 59 317 Todd Cruz 1978-84
57 C 21 117 Ned Yost 1980-5
57 OF 50 207 Dee Brown 1998-2007
56 SS 25 254 Rob Picciolo 1977-85

As you can see, if history is any indication, things don't bode well for Francisco. In the poll above, please state which career in terms of pure offense that you see as most likely for Juan Francisco provided he's given the opportunity.

Great research. This has been my issue all along. His peripherals don't suggest a guy that will be able to make it at the Major League level. There's certainly a chance he can improve these numbers, but as is, he has a long, long way to go.

Redhook
11-12-2010, 07:29 PM
I don't project Francisco to ever be a starter at any position for the Reds.

dougdirt
11-12-2010, 08:53 PM
If we are simply talking about his major league numbers, he needs to strike out less than he is. His walk rate in the majors is fine, but of course given what it is in the minor leagues, I doubt he continues at the 8% clip if he doesn't improve. With that said, I think he can improve his approach as I have seen him make big strides over the last two seasons in terms of taking pitches that he used to swing out of his shoes trying to hit.

Phhhl
11-13-2010, 12:03 AM
He's Willy Mo Pena. My friend made that analogy not long ago, and looking at the stats I cannot argue with it. Maybe there is a ray of hope in that he has options left. But, in his mind, I presume there is no pressing need for him to continue to "develop" while he is crushing minor league pitching. What can the Reds possibly do to get this kid to change?

I am not excited about Francisco. It stinks, because he has such incredible raw potential. If there is any way to toss him into a deal for a legit power hitting left fielder, the club needs to do it. Or, maybe a latter day "Arroyo for Pena" type bank heist...?

dougdirt
11-13-2010, 03:29 AM
He's Willy Mo Pena. My friend made that analogy not long ago, and looking at the stats I cannot argue with it. Maybe there is a ray of hope in that he has options left. But, in his mind, I presume there is no pressing need for him to continue to "develop" while he is crushing minor league pitching. What can the Reds possibly do to get this kid to change?

I am not excited about Francisco. It stinks, because he has such incredible raw potential. If there is any way to toss him into a deal for a legit power hitting left fielder, the club needs to do it. Or, maybe a latter day "Arroyo for Pena" type bank heist...?

He isn't Wily Mo Pena. Numerically they seem similar, but they aren't. Wily Mo Pena couldn't distinguish a breaking ball from a fastball until it was across the plate and he was either looking at it or had already swung. Francisco doesn't have that same issue.

Jpup
11-13-2010, 11:40 AM
He seems like a fine kid, but I don't really see him as a Major League hitter for long. I really hope I'm wrong.

Kc61
11-13-2010, 02:30 PM
Another Francisco debate?

He doesn't walk a lot. He has good power. He has a good arm but is rough around third base defensively. Some think he will make it. Some don't.

Enough.

Rojo
11-13-2010, 03:35 PM
He isn't Wily Mo Pena.

Maybe not, but looking for another Pena for Arroyo trade isn't a bad idea. If Francisco throw up 25 homers with the same bad peripherals, move him.

Homer Bailey
11-14-2010, 03:06 AM
My stance on JF has always been that he's the kind of guy you just hang on to and see what happens. I don't think he has a ton of trade value, and there is a chance he becomes an absolute raker at the plate. Unlimited power, bad peripherals, we've all heard the story. I still think there is a chance he becomes Ryan Howard. I've often compared him to Pablo Sandoval.

His OPS continues to improve year by year. I say just ride it out. He may turn out to be nothing. That's fine. I still think he has incredible potential. Let's see what we have in him.