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View Full Version : Early 2011 CBS/Sportsline Power Rankings....REDS #7



Kingspoint
11-12-2010, 08:18 PM
Question: Has winning baseball returned to stay in Cincinnati, or will Dusty Baker revert to his old arm-shredding, OBP-ignorant self?

Strengths: They go seven deep in the rotation. Maybe the Reds trade from this happy (and affordable) excess to fill an organizational hole, like the one behind the plate.

Needs: One long-term contract for Joey Votto before the first-base market goes kablooey (see under: upcoming deals for Pujols, Gonzalez and Fielder); two reliable relievers (Brian Fuentes?); three everyday-player-type players, with "Help Wanted" signs currently posted at shortstop and in left field and an age- or injury-related vacancy looming at third base.

Odds of 2011 glory: Only two of the six NL Central teams currently exist in a state of something other than serene befuddlement, and the Reds are one of them. Gotta like those odds.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/story/14273214/power-rankings-hope-this-tides-you-over-until-february

........

MikeThierry
11-12-2010, 10:24 PM
HAHAHA, this is the best line from that article:

"Only two of the six NL Central teams currently exist in a state of something other than serene befuddlement, and the Reds are one of them. Gotta like those odds."

I kind of feel bad for the Pirates with this sort of expectation:

"Question: Why haven't atheist groups targeted PNC Park for their recruiting pushes? Strengths: Post-game fireworks; low expectations. Needs: Everything, but mostly pitching and hope. Odds of 2011 glory: Come on now."

MikeThierry
11-12-2010, 10:25 PM
Though I kind of question him putting the Giants in that 1st position. The Giants had a great team this year but a lot of their guys were reclamation projects and cast offs from other teams. I don't know if they will have the same success with that cast of characters like the Rangers or even the stacked Yankees will have.

Roush's socks
11-12-2010, 10:34 PM
Great to see the Reds getting respect.

davereds24
11-12-2010, 11:48 PM
"organizational hole, like the one behind the plate."

yeah, ok. i guess this guy missed the reds had one of the best producing catching tandems in baseball last year and have 2 first round picks that will be in AA and AAA next year.

Roush's socks
11-13-2010, 12:12 AM
"organizational hole, like the one behind the plate."

yeah, ok. i guess this guy missed the reds had one of the best producing catching tandems in baseball last year and have 2 first round picks that will be in AA and AAA next year.

Yeah when I saw that I did a double take.

brachial pleXUs
11-13-2010, 05:33 PM
"organizational hole, like the one behind the plate."

yeah, ok. i guess this guy missed the reds had one of the best producing catching tandems in baseball last year and have 2 first round picks that will be in AA and AAA next year.

The guy who did the hot stove predictions on SI.com had them as needing a catcher more than anything else and targeting (Get this!) Yorvit Torrealba. Do these guys do any research before they write?

MikeThierry
11-13-2010, 08:04 PM
Do you think that when he is talking about organizational hole, he is talking about defense? Ramon Hernandez only threw out 34% of runners. Ryan Hanigan only threw out 32%. I agree that they probably got the most offensive production from the Catcher position than any other team in baseball but the defense leaves a bit to be desired.

Kingspoint
11-13-2010, 08:21 PM
"organizational hole, like the one behind the plate."

yeah, ok. i guess this guy missed the reds had one of the best producing catching tandems in baseball last year and have 2 first round picks that will be in AA and AAA next year.
He definitely missed that.

Kingspoint
11-13-2010, 08:22 PM
Do you think that when he is talking about organizational hole, he is talking about defense? Ramon Hernandez only threw out 34% of runners. Ryan Hanigan only threw out 32%. I agree that they probably got the most offensive production from the Catcher position than any other team in baseball but the defense leaves a bit to be desired.

That could be. Neither RED got a single vote for Gold Glove @ Catcher, while about 10 other Catchers received at least one vote.

davereds24
11-13-2010, 08:50 PM
I doubt either one started even half the games at catcher this season so that's understandable.

Hanigan is a great defensive catcher, not sure why his runners thrown out percentage was down this year. Maybe due to half his games being with the slow throwing Arroyo but i didn't look into the details.

DocRed
11-13-2010, 09:21 PM
I don't know who this guy is but he is an IDIOT if he thinks we need help behind the plate PERIOD.

MikeThierry
11-14-2010, 02:52 AM
Looking at the defensive stats, there probably could be an upgrade for the Reds though do you want to sacrifice offense for defense? I think the catcher position is one spot in the lineup in which the offense can suffer a bit if that means you are going to get a stud defensive catcher. If you look at Molina, teams just shut down the run game when he is in the lineup. If the Reds have a catcher that nullifies the run game, it just adds a different dimension to the games played. This is actually an excellent breakdown of the best defensive catchers of 2010. It gets into the sort of advanced sabermetrics but it is well researched and well thought out:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/11/10/1803183/2010-beyond-the-box-score-catcher-defense-rankings

So the guy suggesting Yorvit Torrealba actually wasn't that far off if there is a team looking for defense. If you look at Yorvit's offensive stats, he is a decent hitter as well so its not far off to say, in my opinion, that the Reds could seek him as an option if they want a decent hitter with good defense behind the plate. What surprised me is that Ivan Rodriguez is still getting it done behind the plate.

MikeThierry
11-14-2010, 02:58 AM
Geesh, I was looking at Yadi's defensive stats. He threw out 64% of runners out in 2005.

757690
11-14-2010, 03:31 AM
Geesh, I was looking at Yadi's defensive stats. He threw out 64% of runners out in 2005.

Yeah, it hard to compare Yadi's defense to other catcher's. He definitely has been in a league of his own (except for his brothers, lol) when it comes to defense.

But caught stealing percentage isn't the best stat to judge a catcher's ability to throw out runners, let alone his defense as a whole. A good defensive catcher will prohibit all but the true basestealers from running, which is why Yadi only had 68 runners attempt on him in 135 games. The average is about one a game.

Hernandez and Hanigan were well under one a game (around .65 combined). While not as great as Yadi, they had a pretty good year throwing out runners combined last season.

According to Fangraphs, which is not very accurate with catchers, to be honest, they both rated about right at league average overall. But that sems about right. They weren't gold glove caliber, but I don't think the Reds were complaining about their defense.

Kingspoint
11-15-2010, 01:16 AM
I doubt either one started even half the games at catcher this season so that's understandable.

Hanigan is a great defensive catcher, not sure why his runners thrown out percentage was down this year. Maybe due to half his games being with the slow throwing Arroyo but i didn't look into the details.

Arroyo was one of the 5 best Right-handed pitchers in baseball as far as not letting runners steal a base. Something like only 8 attempted, 2 were picked off and something else happened to another one.

Arroyo's got one of the best moves of any Right-hander in the game.

davereds24
11-15-2010, 01:50 AM
Arroyo was one of the 5 best Right-handed pitchers in baseball as far as not letting runners steal a base. Something like only 8 attempted, 2 were picked off and something else happened to another one.

Arroyo's got one of the best moves of any Right-hander in the game.

Yes, but that has nothing to do with Hanigan's stats. How many of the 8 were successful?

Red in Atl
11-15-2010, 01:20 PM
I don't know who this guy is but he is an IDIOT if he thinks we need help behind the plate PERIOD.

Exactly. Enough said. Move on.

Anything anyone writes trying to justify this statement is wasted time. the article said this is an ORGANIZATIONAL hole. It clearly is not.

Kingspoint
11-15-2010, 09:06 PM
Yes, but that has nothing to do with Hanigan's stats. How many of the 8 were successful?

Success rate against Arroyo (don't know which ones were Hanigan's).

2010: 6 of 8
2009: 12 of 18
2008: 5 of 7
2007: 3 of 9
2006: 5 of 10
2005: 4 of 7
2004: 4 of 9


In 295 career games, only 84 attempts have been made against Arroyo. So, only the best of the best ever try to steal a base on him. 50 of 84 success rate, or one Stolen Base every 6th start. If that's not the best, then it's in the Top-3 over the last 10 years for Right-Handed starting pitchers.

Kingspoint
11-15-2010, 09:20 PM
One thing with Caught Stealing stats is that the Catcher of record is credited with a Caught Stealing, even if the Pitcher picks off the runner.

In 2009 and 2010, there were 28 Stolen Bases when Hanigan was the Catcher.

In 2009 there were 21 Caught Stealings for the 43% "Caught" rate we all know about with Hanigan from two years ago.

In 2010 there were 13 Caught Stealings for the 32% "Caught" rate we are talking about now with Hanigan.

But, in 2009, 4 of those Caught Stealings were Pickoffs by the Pitcher, whereas in 2010 just 1 of those Caught Stealings were pickoffs by the Pitcher.

So, instead of the 43% dropoff to the 32% dropoff we think Hanigan suffered from 2009 to 2010, it's really a 39% (2009's true number) to 30% dropoff.

In other words, Hanigan wasn't that good in 2009 in throwing out runners, either.


http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hanigry01-field.shtml

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bounty37h
11-16-2010, 10:18 AM
"organizational hole, like the one behind the plate."

yeah, ok. i guess this guy missed the reds had one of the best producing catching tandems in baseball last year and have 2 first round picks that will be in AA and AAA next year.

They were a good hitting tandem, but not the greatest defensive catchers-high ERA, low caught stealing %, etc. I assume they are talking about this from a defensive standpoint, where they are only around average I would say. I would love to have an upgrade of one catcher who is a defensive specialiast (Corky is actually the best catcher of the 3 IMO), so I dont see his view as that far off in that sense.

Girevik
11-16-2010, 10:26 AM
This was also written while Hernandez was still a FA. How comfortable would you have been going into the season with Hannigan and Corkey as your tandem?

Red in Atl
11-16-2010, 12:47 PM
From today's resigning article:

"Last season, Reds catchers led the NL with 168 hits and a .296 batting average. Ryan Hanigan and Corky Miller also were part of Cincinnati’s group behind the plate. They also ranked second with 91 RBI and third with an on-base percentage of .375."

They might not have led the league in defense, but I certainly don't remember any glaring problems. More proof that writer is a NTAC. It shows why having one guy make judgements on all the other teams, when they clearly don't do the needed research, is such a waste of print.

People, calling our catching situation an organizational hole is saying that we have terrible catchers at the MLB level and no one coming up through the minor league system. That is incorrect on so many levels, its just stupid.

bounty37h
11-16-2010, 01:50 PM
From today's resigning article:

"Last season, Reds catchers led the NL with 168 hits and a .296 batting average. Ryan Hanigan and Corky Miller also were part of Cincinnatiís group behind the plate. They also ranked second with 91 RBI and third with an on-base percentage of .375."

They might not have led the league in defense, but I certainly don't remember any glaring problems. More proof that writer is a NTAC. It shows why having one guy make judgements on all the other teams, when they clearly don't do the needed research, is such a waste of print.

People, calling our catching situation an organizational hole is saying that we have terrible catchers at the MLB level and no one coming up through the minor league system. That is incorrect on so many levels, its just stupid.

It is closer then you are I think. Mes is on way, but who knows what we have with him. Who else ya got in mind in the minors? No future GG at the spot that I can see. O"rganizational hole" is a little overdramatic, but it def is a weaker spot in the org overall.

Chris Sabowned
11-16-2010, 04:34 PM
It is closer then you are I think. Mes is on way, but who knows what we have with him. Who else ya got in mind in the minors? No future GG at the spot that I can see. O"rganizational hole" is a little overdramatic, but it def is a weaker spot in the org overall.

Yasmani Grandl says hi:wave:

New York Red
11-16-2010, 07:34 PM
The comment about our catching situation shows there wasn't much research for this article, but it's still REALLY COOL to be getting this kind of respect and recognition.

:beerme:

Kingspoint
11-16-2010, 08:07 PM
It shows why having one guy make judgements on all the other teams, when they clearly don't do the needed research, is such a waste of print.



Consequently, beat writers are generally going to give you the best information about a team, with most others making quite a bit of it up.

bounty37h
11-17-2010, 03:31 PM
Yasmani Grandl says hi:wave:

Hi back? Where was I wrong, he wont ever win GG, lucky if he ever gets a vote, if he makes it up to Cincy. He is a hitter who plays catcher, not a catcher who can hit.