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View Full Version : Oakland A's claim third baseman Edwin Encarnacion off waivers from Toronto Blue Jays



savafan
11-13-2010, 12:52 AM
How's that trade look now?

http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_16600413

Jpup
11-13-2010, 10:49 AM
Beane lovers say what? ;)

HokieRed
11-13-2010, 03:07 PM
Half of a DH platoon with Cust?

Rojo
11-13-2010, 03:26 PM
Beane lovers say what? ;)

Not a bad wire pickup. He can knock it out and is entering what are typically prime years. Just keep him away from 3rd base.

RedsManRick
11-13-2010, 04:21 PM
Half of a DH platoon with Cust?

That's my guess. I don't think he sees much time at 3B.

Ron Madden
11-13-2010, 04:56 PM
I can see Edwin hitting more doubles in Oakland.

pedro
11-13-2010, 05:08 PM
I can see Edwin hitting more Caribbean restaurants in Oakland.

jojo
11-13-2010, 08:30 PM
What are the odds of EE actually putting on an As uni?

bucksfan2
11-14-2010, 02:04 PM
Edwin would be a nice buy low project. I think the odds of him putting it together are very slim, but its worth a shot.

traderumor
11-14-2010, 08:02 PM
How's that trade look now?

http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_16600413

It looked good the day it was made, it is only improving over time.

TRF
11-15-2010, 11:33 AM
21 HR's in 332 AB's. He's struggled to stay healthy (wrist injuries) the last two years, had an .803 OPS in the second half last year. If he DH's or is converted to LF he might hit 30+ HR's if his wrists are at full strength.

my guess, IF he's 100%... .280 .340 .490 30+ HR's, 30+ doubles. I'd take him in LF over Gomes.

kpresidente
11-15-2010, 11:36 AM
my guess, IF he's 100%... .280 .340 .490 30+ HR's, 30+ doubles. I'd take him in LF over Gomes.

Better numbers than I'd project for Rolen next year....

edit: Also, I think 30+ HR, 30+ doubles, and a .280 batting average should be significantly higher than a .490 SLG.

OnBaseMachine
11-15-2010, 11:39 AM
Better numbers than I'd project for Rolen next year....

But Rolen's defense will be exceptionally better.

kpresidente
11-15-2010, 11:41 AM
No doubt. But we could have just signed Rolen anyway since he only had one year left on his deal at the time.

bucksfan2
11-15-2010, 11:51 AM
21 HR's in 332 AB's. He's struggled to stay healthy (wrist injuries) the last two years, had an .803 OPS in the second half last year. If he DH's or is converted to LF he might hit 30+ HR's if his wrists are at full strength.

my guess, IF he's 100%... .280 .340 .490 30+ HR's, 30+ doubles. I'd take him in LF over Gomes.

Edwin has never hit 30 HRs in a season. Couple that with him playing his home games in Oakland, it doesn't look like he will get there this season.

Your post seems to me like the optimistic, hopeful posts of yesteryear here on RZ about Edwin. He will woo you with potential, but thats about it.

TRF
11-15-2010, 12:11 PM
Edwin has never hit 30 HRs in a season. Couple that with him playing his home games in Oakland, it doesn't look like he will get there this season.

Your post seems to me like the optimistic, hopeful posts of yesteryear here on RZ about Edwin. He will woo you with potential, but thats about it.

Neither did Votto before this year. Oakland and 9 games in Safeco will sap a ton of his HR power, but he's always been a doubles machine, and that park will help him there. And he's got plenty of sock to hit a few out at his new home too.

But he's got to be healthy for it to happen wrist injuries take forever to heal and forever to strengthen.

westofyou
11-15-2010, 01:23 PM
21 HR's in 332 AB's. He's struggled to stay healthy (wrist injuries) the last two years, had an .803 OPS in the second half last year. If he DH's or is converted to LF he might hit 30+ HR's if his wrists are at full strength.

my guess, IF he's 100%... .280 .340 .490 30+ HR's, 30+ doubles. I'd take him in LF over Gomes.

My guess is they choose Kevin Kooz over EE for 3rd base and he can't find a groove anywhere else on the field and ends up elsewhere.

TRF
11-15-2010, 01:28 PM
My guess is they choose Kevin Kooz over EE for 3rd base and he can't find a groove anywhere else on the field and ends up elsewhere.

probably so. He'd possibly be a neat fit in SD in LF, or DH/bench in TX to replace Vlad at some point.

westofyou
11-15-2010, 01:37 PM
probably so. He'd possibly be a neat fit in SD in LF, or DH/bench in TX to replace Vlad at some point.

Put him in LF in SD and that's a LOT of ground for a 3rd sacker to cover, I think that ship has sailed.

As for Texas.. can't see it. EE is not a dynamic baseball player, he doesn't take the extra base, he isn't know for his baseball acumen so I can't see him moving up to a contender under the auspice of being the "Missing Link"

Plus as long as he's Oakland property they'll do their best to make sure he doesn't end up in Dallas. I see him more on pretenders, not contenders.

Rojo
11-15-2010, 01:43 PM
I see him more on pretenders, not contenders.

Yep. But I think you can shine him up and flip him in July.

REDREAD
11-15-2010, 02:40 PM
If the A's claim EdE off waviers, isn't Toronto off the hook for his salary and Oakland has to pay it? If so, this is a dumb move in my opinion. Oakland is kind of cash constrained, so why give EdE so much money?

If I am wrong, and Toronto is paying him everything but ML minimum salary, then I guess EdE is ok for bench filler.. Although the fact that he has no defensive position really limits his value, even if he hits.

jojo
11-15-2010, 03:04 PM
If the A's claim EdE off waviers, isn't Toronto off the hook for his salary and Oakland has to pay it? If so, this is a dumb move in my opinion. Oakland is kind of cash constrained, so why give EdE so much money?

If I am wrong, and Toronto is paying him everything but ML minimum salary, then I guess EdE is ok for bench filler.. Although the fact that he has no defensive position really limits his value, even if he hits.

He has no salary yet and the As don't have to tender him a contract (in this case offer arbitration). I'd go with the under concerning how long the As keep him around.

REDREAD
11-15-2010, 04:18 PM
He has no salary yet and the As don't have to tender him a contract (in this case offer arbitration). I'd go with the under concerning how long the As keep him around.

Ok, so he was just nontendered.. I was confused on the contract situation.
I guess he's an ok pickup for bottom feeding for a cheap DH, but I'm glad he's off our team.

jojo
11-15-2010, 05:54 PM
Ok, so he was just nontendered.. I was confused on the contract situation.
I guess he's an ok pickup for bottom feeding for a cheap DH, but I'm glad he's off our team.

He was waived by Toronto. He's arb eligible so given his salary this season, he's likely to make $6M which is why I doubt he's an A for very long. They won't offer him arbitration and will likely try to sign him at a discount relative to his 2010 salary. If they can't work something out with EE, they'll then nontender him and he'll be a free agent and likely play for someone else at a rate lower than his 2010 salary.

westofyou
12-16-2010, 11:42 AM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/blue-jays-sign-edwin-encarnacion.html


The Blue Jays announced that they signed Edwin Encarnacion to a one-year, $2.5MM contract that includes a club option for $3.5MM in 2012. The team says Encarnacion will play first base/DH, instead of third base, where he spent last season.

Redsfan320
12-16-2010, 11:49 AM
Sweet deal for EdE, considering. It's about time he moved away from the hot corner, and with Overbay gone to the O's the opening had presented itself. Good luck at you new position!

320

TRF
12-16-2010, 11:56 AM
He had a decent 2nd half where he was finally healthy. It takes a while for strength to return to your wrists after injury to them.

This seems like a very good fit. And the right position too.

jojo
12-16-2010, 01:04 PM
Its probably not too much of an unfair generalization to suggest most Reds fans probably consider EE a bust at this point or at least thought it was time to part ways when he was traded. Heck the uproar on redszone was over a minor leaguer (Stewart) who was also traded in the deal.

That said, EE has done this for his career: .258/.336.453, wOBA=.344 which makes him an above average major league hitter. He clearly has defensive issues which significantly impact his overall value but considering context for a second, it takes alot of talent to be an above average hitter in the majors. Its not likely that many of us on redszone are as good at our professions as EE is at his. Baseball is a wonderful game but its also a cold, hard-hearted, unforgiving way to make a living.

HokieRed
12-16-2010, 01:22 PM
Its probably not too much of an unfair generalization to suggest most Reds fans probably consider EE a bust at this point or at least thought it was time to part ways when he was traded. Heck the uproar on redszone was over a minor leaguer (Stewart) who was also traded in the deal.

That said, EE has done this for his career: .258/.336.453, wOBA=.344 which makes him an above average major league hitter. He clearly has defensive issues which significantly impact his overall value but considering context for a second, it takes alot of talent to be an above average hitter in the majors. Its not likely that many of us on redszone are as good at our professions as EE is at his. Baseball is a wonderful game but its also a cold, hard-hearted, unforgiving way to make a living.

Seems a very fair assessment. It's always seemed to me the Reds did EE a big disservice by trying to get him to play a position he quite obviously could not play--and which, I believe, nearly everybody, including himself, knew he could not play. Had he been moved to LF in 2004, he might have had a much happier and more productive career in Cinti.

TRF
12-16-2010, 02:23 PM
And since almost ALL of EE's shortcomings have been attributed to his throwing, once he gets comfortable at 1B, his range could make him a plus defender. Could. it's a big unknown when a guy switches positions, but what we do know is EE can hit.

Roy Tucker
12-16-2010, 02:49 PM
Seems so long ago...

June 15, 2001: Edwin Encarnacion traded by the Texas Rangers with Ruben Mateo to the Cincinnati Reds for Rob Bell.

TRF
12-16-2010, 03:18 PM
Seems so long ago...

June 15, 2001: Edwin Encarnacion traded by the Texas Rangers with Ruben Mateo to the Cincinnati Reds for Rob Bell.

It may not have worked out, but the Reds clearly got the best of that deal. So much potential...

edabbs44
12-16-2010, 10:06 PM
And since almost ALL of EE's shortcomings have been attributed to his throwing, once he gets comfortable at 1B, his range could make him a plus defender. Could. it's a big unknown when a guy switches positions, but what we do know is EE can hit.

I'm kind of shocked that you think that "we know that EE can hit".

*BaseClogger*
12-16-2010, 11:16 PM
I'm kind of shocked that you think that "we know that EE can hit".

I'm sure he's not shocked that you think that way... :)

Ron Madden
12-17-2010, 04:09 AM
I'm kind of shocked that you think that "we know that EE can hit".

What makes you think that he can't hit?

edabbs44
12-17-2010, 07:50 AM
What makes you think that he can't hit?

He has his moments. But that wasn't my point.

IslandRed
12-17-2010, 07:59 PM
Encarnacion is a classic case of a player who tantalizes with the potential of being an offensive asset at a defensive position, but ultimately, once he finally slides into his proper notch on the defensive spectrum, the bat is nothing special relative to his new peer group.

On the other hand, "nothing special" still has value as long as it doesn't cost too much and isn't paired with giving away runs in the field by the cartload. And $2.5 million isn't bad work if you can get it.

Sea Ray
12-18-2010, 08:58 AM
That said, EE has done this for his career: .258/.336.453, wOBA=.344 which makes him an above average major league hitter. He clearly has defensive issues which significantly impact his overall value but considering context for a second, it takes alot of talent to be an above average hitter in the majors. Its not likely that many of us on redszone are as good at our professions as EE is at his. Baseball is a wonderful game but its also a cold, hard-hearted, unforgiving way to make a living.

At this point he is a tick above avg but the question remains, has he already had his peak years? If he can put together a resurgence at 1B then so be it but if he slows down then he may very well end his career as a below avg hitter and defender

klw
05-27-2014, 05:40 PM
After watching last night's game thread derail into yet another discussion of the greatness of EE and the woe that has befallen the Reds since they traded him away despite all of baseball knowing of his greatness, I thought I would bump this thread.

Hopefully we can discuss EE in an thread about EE instead of cramming other threads with it.

PepperJack
05-27-2014, 06:54 PM
I just don't get it either.

Of all the ones that got away to pine for, EE makes the least amount of sense.

He was available to everyone twice, he can't really play the field, and he wasn't very good on offense for 3 years after being traded.

Plus he torched those bridges walking out the door.


I don't think the Reds have missed him at all. They have had pretty solid production at 3B, and have been to the playoffs 3 of the 4 full seasons he has been gone.

Chuckie
05-27-2014, 07:22 PM
I have three letters for you:

HGH

RedEye
05-27-2014, 08:55 PM
I always liked EE when he was with the Reds. That said, I don't get the constant Monday Morning Quarterback impulse to bring his name up around here.

klw
05-27-2014, 09:11 PM
In 14 pages of posts mostly bashing the Rolen trade, only 3 people had anything positive to say about EE.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?77841-Post-Rolen-trade-reactions&highlight=Roles+Stewart+Edwin+Toronto

And then there was this:
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?77740-Edwin-Reaction&highlight=Edwin+extension

Ironman92
05-27-2014, 09:18 PM
I have three letters for you:

HGH

That's only 2 letters

Spitball
05-27-2014, 09:59 PM
I watched six Toronto games recently on MLB.com. I could not believe the authority in which Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Juan Francisco, and Melky Cabrera were hitting the ball. Cabrera hit a ball almost out of the stadium. I have not seen balls hit with such authority since Mark McGwire was endangering pitchers and infielders in the late 1990s.

This was just my observation, but I was very suspicious.

Tracy Jones
05-27-2014, 10:15 PM
I just don't get it either.

Of all the ones that got away to pine for, EE makes the least amount of sense.

He was available to everyone twice, he can't really play the field, and he wasn't very good on offense for 3 years after being traded.


Plus he torched those bridges walking out the door.


I don't think the Reds have missed him at all. They have had pretty solid production at 3B, and have been to the playoffs 3 of the 4 full seasons he has been gone.

Right.

A team that can't hit would have no use for a player working on his 3rd consecutive .900+ OPS and .530+ slugging season.

Who wants a player like that?

Always Red
05-27-2014, 10:40 PM
Right.

A team that can't hit would have no use for a player working on his 3rd consecutive .900+ OPS and .530+ slugging season.

Who wants a player like that?

Not a team that doesn't have need of a DH or a 1B.

He can't play 3B or LF. He's an American Leaguer. The Blue Jays are full of them, guys that learned how to slug late in their careers. Look at Juan Francisco, finally fixed.

I love Canadiens, or I'd say there's something in the water there...

Wonderful Monds
05-27-2014, 10:45 PM
I watched six Toronto games recently on MLB.com. I could not believe the authority in which Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Juan Francisco, and Melky Cabrera were hitting the ball. Cabrera hit a ball almost out of the stadium. I have not seen balls hit with such authority since Mark McGwire was endangering pitchers and infielders in the late 1990s.

This was just my observation, but I was very suspicious.

They are a new PED haven. They aren't even being shy about it really. Might as well have shouted it to the world when they signed Melky Cabrera.

westofyou
05-27-2014, 10:46 PM
Guy is a DH in the making (55 games last year) He had his chance to grab the spot and threw it away (into the stands occasionally)

The Reds will trade for another teams bust someday and turn him around, they will trade a bust here and maybe he goes all EE or maybe he goes Willie Greene.

Sometimes players change when they move on and sometimes it's for the better, it's not like the Reds didn't get a 3rd starter type who couldn't finish often, a ML speedster CF and a middle reliever who just threw about 550 innings in the last 5 seasons

Tracy Jones
05-27-2014, 10:57 PM
Not a team that doesn't have need of a DH or a 1B.

He can't play 3B or LF. He's an American Leaguer. The Blue Jays are full of them, guys that learned how to slug late in their careers. Look at Juan Francisco, finally fixed.

I love Canadiens, or I'd say there's something in the water there...

You find a spot for a bat like that, especially on a team that can't hit.

What's the saying? LF is a position best defended by a bat?

Tom Servo
05-27-2014, 11:02 PM
Right.

A team that can't hit would have no use for a player working on his 3rd consecutive .900+ OPS and .530+ slugging season.

Who wants a player like that?How on earth are you ignoring the fact that Edwin didn't have his first .900+ OPS season until 2012, and we traded him in 2009?

Tracy Jones
05-27-2014, 11:16 PM
How on earth are you ignoring the fact that Edwin didn't have his first .900+ OPS season until 2012, and we traded him in 2009?

I'm not. It's easy to say we should have kept E-5 now, but believe it or not, I thought it was a bad move when the deal was made. The guy was at least a decent hitter when he was here. Obviously not what he is now, but I believe we gave up on him too soon.

Brutus
05-27-2014, 11:23 PM
I'm not. It's easy to say we should have kept E-5 now, but believe it or not, I thought it was a bad move when the deal was made. The guy was at least a decent hitter when he was here. Obviously not what he is now, but I believe we gave up on him too soon.

The Reds didn't give up on him. They traded for a guy they knew they didn't have to wait on so they could start winning immediately rather than later.

It worked. The Reds made the playoffs the next season.

Tracy Jones
05-27-2014, 11:41 PM
The Reds didn't give up on him. They traded for a guy they knew they didn't have to wait on so they could start winning immediately rather than later.

It worked. The Reds made the playoffs the next season.

Yeah it did work.

Although if you believe in WAR, they would have won the division without Rolen and with E-5.

It can be spun any way the spinner wants to spin it, and hindsight is always 20/20, but in that hindsight, it was a lousy deal for the Reds.

Brutus
05-28-2014, 01:01 AM
Yeah it did work.

Although if you believe in WAR, they would have won the division without Rolen and with E-5.

It can be spun any way the spinner wants to spin it, and hindsight is always 20/20, but in that hindsight, it was a lousy deal for the Reds.

No it wasn't a lousy deal for the Reds. The Reds got a better player in that deal and the guy they traded was worthless for a few more seasons thereafter. Remember even the Blue Jays were willing to give him away the next year.

And now, the Reds have an .850 OPS, gold-glover at 3B.

dougdirt
05-28-2014, 01:34 AM
I have three letters for you:

HGH

Oh man. More baseless accusations. Thumbs down. Fart noise.

Larry Schuler
05-28-2014, 03:37 AM
This trade is going to look worse and worse for the Reds and then in 2018 when Scott Rolen is voted into the Hall of Fame it will become a great trade again. That's how you view trades. By analyzing them years later, using a synchronic analysis that only considers what the players are doing this very day.

blumj
05-28-2014, 06:30 AM
Wouldn't he have reached free agency, having given the team no real reason to lock him up, by the time he broke out, anyway? The timing of "they shouldn't have traded him" doesn't seem to fit what happened when with him.

membengal
05-28-2014, 06:36 AM
I will say this, we as a fanbase are awesome at coming up with reasons why guys that can hit would never work here. Cruz? Hells no. Encarnacion? Hells no. That guy can hit? Hells no, LF is SO SO SO hard to play.

But it sure is fun watching this team work on re-creating mini-versions of 1982 and 1983.

PuffyPig
05-28-2014, 06:50 AM
Not a team that doesn't have need of a DH or a 1B.

He can't play 3B or LF. He's an American Leaguer. The Blue Jays are full of them, guys that learned how to slug late in their careers. Look at Juan Francisco, finally fixed.

I love Canadiens, or I'd say there's something in the water there...

I wouldn't be lumping Juan Francisco into that group quite yet, based on 30 games.

But that walk rate does suggest something different.

reds44
05-28-2014, 08:58 AM
No it wasn't a lousy deal for the Reds. The Reds got a better player in that deal and the guy they traded was worthless for a few more seasons thereafter. Remember even the Blue Jays were willing to give him away the next year.

And now, the Reds have an .850 OPS, gold-glover at 3B.

Uh, who is this guy and when did the Reds trade for him?

reds44
05-28-2014, 09:03 AM
But still, complaining about the EE trade is weird when you consider they could have made that deal and got EE back for nothing later on.

Chuckie
05-28-2014, 09:05 AM
Oh man. More baseless accusations. Thumbs down. Fart noise.

Yeah, no one else in this thread has made that assertion. No one else thinks the Blue Jays are the new PED haven.

Fart noise? You really are immature.

Chuckie
05-28-2014, 09:08 AM
They are a new PED haven. They aren't even being shy about it really. Might as well have shouted it to the world when they signed Melky Cabrera.

- - - Updated - - -


I watched six Toronto games recently on MLB.com. I could not believe the authority in which Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Juan Francisco, and Melky Cabrera were hitting the ball. Cabrera hit a ball almost out of the stadium. I have not seen balls hit with such authority since Mark McGwire was endangering pitchers and infielders in the late 1990s.

This was just my observation, but I was very suspicious.

CySeymour
05-28-2014, 09:15 AM
I will say this, we as a fanbase are awesome at coming up with reasons why guys that can hit would never work here. Cruz? Hells no. Encarnacion? Hells no. That guy can hit? Hells no, LF is SO SO SO hard to play.

But it sure is fun watching this team work on re-creating mini-versions of 1982 and 1983.

Cruz may have come here for the right $$$ amount. But the Reds wouldn't want to part with the draft pick, which is very valuable to a small market team.

reds44
05-28-2014, 09:19 AM
Cruz may have come here for the right $$$ amount. But the Reds wouldn't want to part with the draft pick, which is very valuable to a small market team.

To be fair, the Reds are more of a middle market team than small market. I wouldn't have punted the draft pick for Cruz either, though. They'd still be bad with him.

membengal
05-28-2014, 09:22 AM
Cruz may have come here for the right $$$ amount. But the Reds wouldn't want to part with the draft pick, which is very valuable to a small market team.

I understand this latest reason, and I certainly wasn't standing on a soapbox screaming for him, but I did mention in that Cruz thread I thought the dismissals of him as a possible help this team in terms of bat because of glove were overblown. It is what it is, but this team is really struggling offensively, and that was absolutely a concern expressed by a lot of folks in the off-season (and before that if you read the stylings of KC61).

That said, and since I live in Baltimore now I am close to the reaction, but Orioles fans and his teammates are not hating his work in Baltimore this year, even with draft pick burned.

CySeymour
05-28-2014, 09:22 AM
To be fair, the Reds are more of a middle market team than small market. I wouldn't have punted the draft pick for Cruz either, though. They'd still be bad with him.

Fair enough.

CySeymour
05-28-2014, 09:23 AM
I understand this latest reason, and I certainly wasn't standing on a soapbox screaming for him, but I did mention in that Cruz thread I thought the dismissals of him as a possible help this team in terms of bat because of glove were overblown. It is what it is, but this team is really struggling offensively, and that was absolutely a concern expressed by a lot of folks in the off-season (and before that if you read the stylings of KC61).

I get that, and concur. However, when arguing the fact they needed a bat, it needs to be argued for another player who didn't have draft pick compensation attached.

membengal
05-28-2014, 09:25 AM
I get that, and concur. However, when arguing the fact they needed a bat, it needs to be argued for another player who didn't have draft pick compensation attached.

Unless...it did. Maybe it's a gamble that would have been worth it. Like I said, he has been a huge help in Baltimore. And, as valuable as 1st round picks can be, they are also not guaranteed to always blossom, as you know, I am sure.*

*Hopes Phil Ervin snaps out of it.

traderumor
05-28-2014, 09:25 AM
You find a spot for a bat like that, especially on a team that can't hit.

What's the saying? LF is a position best defended by a bat?Was Encarnacion available recently? Offense was not an issue when the Reds had him. He was an erratic, streaky, pull hitter. The guy has mysteriously turned around his career, which was in the tank AFTER the trade with the same team that now has an above average power hitter. I don't know what Toronto's dirty little secret is, but their soul is sold to something.

CySeymour
05-28-2014, 09:26 AM
Unless...it did. Maybe it's a gamble that would have been worth it. Like I said, he has been a huge help in Baltimore. And, as valuable as 1st round picks can be, they are also not guaranteed to always blossom, as you know, I am sure.*

*Hopes Phil Ervin snaps out of it.

Just as Cruz wasn't guaranteed.

membengal
05-28-2014, 09:27 AM
Just as Cruz wasn't guaranteed.

Well, yeah. That's why I called what it would have been a "gamble" and even then used the qualifier "maybe".

Just noting that this team for years has come up with reasons NOT to gamble on player acquisitions - with the notable exception of Choo - and he was a rental. For this team to stay at the 90-win level, more gambles have been needed, and they have, for whatever reason (payroll, strategy, vision, something else), not been willing to pull the trigger on calculated gambles that would have helped this offense on the margins.

CySeymour
05-28-2014, 09:35 AM
Just noting that this team for years has come up with reasons NOT to gamble on player acquisitions - with the notable exception of Choo - and he was a rental. For this team to stay at the 90-win level, more gambles have been needed, and they have, for whatever reason (payroll, strategy, vision, something else), not been willing to pull the trigger on calculated gambles that would have helped this offense on the margins.

Wasn't Latos a gamble?

reds44
05-28-2014, 09:40 AM
Wasn't Latos a gamble?

Absolutely. Going from Petco to GABP. Plus trading for pitching is almost always a gamble.

membengal
05-28-2014, 09:43 AM
Wasn't Latos a gamble?

I should have been clearer in my point, it was referencing gambling to improve the offense (the last of my post should have helped clarify that).

Yes, Latos was a nice pick-up. Although pitching is deep throughout the league now, and offense (particularly power offense) is the new treasure (and where calculated gambles probably have to be more aggressively taken).

Brutus
05-28-2014, 03:24 PM
To be fair, the Reds are more of a middle market team than small market. I wouldn't have punted the draft pick for Cruz either, though. They'd still be bad with him.

The Reds are the smallest television market in baseball. That, by definition, is a small market since that's what the term "small market" originated from.

They spend slightly more than other small markets do, but they're the smallest DMA (or were, as they've been battling KC and Milwaukee for that distinction -- I haven't seen the 2014 numbers).

kaldaniels
05-28-2014, 03:56 PM
The Reds are the smallest television market in baseball. That, by definition, is a small market since that's what the term "small market" originated from.

They spend slightly more than other small markets do, but they're the smallest DMA (or were, as they've been battling KC and Milwaukee for that distinction -- I haven't seen the 2014 numbers).

"Cincinnati" is a small market and would be the smallest in baseball.

But the Reds fanbase encompasses much more than that and the matter should be dissected further.

The DMA rankings are what they are...but they are rather arbitrary. Cleveland claims Akron as part of their market. But Cincinnati gets zero credit for Dayton. You could come up with a million examples about the fairness of those market definitions.

Brutus
05-28-2014, 04:08 PM
"Cincinnati" is a small market and would be the smallest in baseball.

But the Reds fanbase encompasses much more than that and the matter should be dissected further.

The DMA rankings are what they are...but they are rather arbitrary. Cleveland claims Akron as part of their market. But Cincinnati gets zero credit for Dayton. You could come up with a million examples about the fairness of those market definitions.

But you could say that about every single Major League team, as not a single franchise's fanbase is contained only within its DMA boundaries.

Those market definitions are what networks use to negotiate deals with content providers, so those definitions are wholly relevant to the discussion even though the markets weren't specifically drawn up to cater to Major League teams. Secondary markets are negotiated when applicable too, but again, that's the case with every baseball team out there. The secondary markets mostly even out.

Bottom line is that in terms of numbers, no matter how you slice it the Reds reside in one of the smallest markets in baseball. I once calculated every market based on a 30 mile radius and a 60 mile radius, and in both calculations Cincinnati was still one of the five smallest.

GAC
05-28-2014, 04:15 PM
I liked EE. While here I always got box seats on the 1B side because I knew, with his arm at 3B, I had my best chance of catching a ball while in the stands! :evil:

Sea Ray
05-28-2014, 04:24 PM
National League teams can only tolerate so many guys like Sean Casey, Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn, Dimitri Young, Yonder Alonzo and Edwin Encarnacion. Sometimes fans think they can do teach these guys to play 3B, LF or wherever and put together a potent lineup. Sorry folks. This is MLB not Fantasy Island. This team can only handle one such player and his name is Joey Votto.

Sea Ray
05-28-2014, 04:27 PM
"Cincinnati" is a small market and would be the smallest in baseball.

But the Reds fanbase encompasses much more than that and the matter should be dissected further.

The DMA rankings are what they are...but they are rather arbitrary. Cleveland claims Akron as part of their market. But Cincinnati gets zero credit for Dayton. You could come up with a million examples about the fairness of those market definitions.

It doesn't even come down to DMA. It comes down to $$ that your local cable outlet can sell your product for. In our case that's FSO and it does include Dayton but the bucks they pay the Reds has to be one of the worst in the league

Wonderful Monds
05-28-2014, 04:50 PM
National League teams can only tolerate so many guys like Sean Casey, Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn, Dimitri Young, Yonder Alonzo and Edwin Encarnacion. Sometimes fans think they can do teach these guys to play 3B, LF or wherever and put together a potent lineup. Sorry folks. This is MLB not Fantasy Island. This team can only handle one such player and his name is Joey Votto.

I think Edwin could have been a LF if he had tried it young enough, but his bat never seemed to warrant that until he was too old.

OGB
05-28-2014, 05:02 PM
Figured I'd mention this since it hasn't come up yet. Edwin's power increased every year with the Reds, but his overall hitting kept getting worse. His first full season he OPS' d .831, the next three were .794, .807, and .707.
Granted, the last figure came in only 165 PAs, but considering his defense at third never improved, he was trending downward.

reds44
05-29-2014, 09:30 PM
Figured I'd mention this since it hasn't come up yet. Edwin's power increased every year with the Reds, but his overall hitting kept getting worse. His first full season he OPS' d .831, the next three were .794, .807, and .707.
Granted, the last figure came in only 165 PAs, but considering his defense at third never improved, he was trending downward.

He's got 2 more tonight.

The reason I don't get the roids talk with Edwin:

33 2Bs, 15 HRs in 406 ABs as a 23 year old with the Reds.

Power was always there.

KronoRed
05-29-2014, 10:32 PM
I'd still throw him out in LF.

gilpdawg
05-29-2014, 10:36 PM
Figured I'd mention this since it hasn't come up yet. Edwin's power increased every year with the Reds, but his overall hitting kept getting worse. His first full season he OPS' d .831, the next three were .794, .807, and .707.
Granted, the last figure came in only 165 PAs, but considering his defense at third never improved, he was trending downward.

In his defense, he had a wrist injury that .707 year.

klw
05-29-2014, 10:40 PM
In his defense, he had a wrist injury that .707 year.

Oh great so it was Kremchek's fault!!! :p

That's a different thread!

Tom Servo
05-29-2014, 10:43 PM
He's got 2 more tonight.

The reason I don't get the roids talk with Edwin:

33 2Bs, 15 HRs in 406 ABs as a 23 year old with the Reds.

Power was always there.
True, but back in 2006, those numbers weren't as impressive or hard to compile as they are today. I mean, Scott Hatteberg hit 28 doubles and 13 HRs in 456 at-bats that year, and he was 36 years old.

jojo
05-29-2014, 10:48 PM
While Walt deservedly so should be fired for missing so badly on EE, you know who really looks bad in this whole mess? Yep, Billy Beane!

Wonderful Monds
05-29-2014, 10:53 PM
True, but back in 2006, those numbers weren't as impressive or hard to compile as they are today. I mean, Scott Hatteberg hit 28 doubles and 13 HRs in 456 at-bats that year, and he was 36 years old.

Somebody who knows how to manipulate BR better than me look up his career Iso vs league numbers.

reds44
05-29-2014, 11:02 PM
True, but back in 2006, those numbers weren't as impressive or hard to compile as they are today. I mean, Scott Hatteberg hit 28 doubles and 13 HRs in 456 at-bats that year, and he was 36 years old.
I'm not sure I understand this. I get the point that numbers are down across baseball, but he's still the same guy and now he's in his prime. Why is he supposed to get worse?

westofyou
05-29-2014, 11:15 PM
Somebody who knows how to manipulate BR better than me look up his career Iso vs league numbers.

everything vs the league


YEAR TEAM AGE G AB R H 2B 3B HR HR% RBI BB SO SB CS AVG SLG OBA OPS
2005 Reds 22 -8 -5 -10 4 -1 2 1.18 3 -2 20 -1 1 -.036 .008 -.031 -.023
2006 Reds 23 7 3 3 11 -2 2 0.35 17 1 4 -1 0 .004 .031 .016 .046
2007 Reds 24 30 0 16 -2 -2 1 0.02 12 -8 -1 -1 2 .016 .002 .014 .016
2008 Reds 25 -6 5 -10 1 -2 10 2.05 1 8 3 -8 3 -.016 .040 .001 .041
2009 Reds 26 -7 -10 -10 -2 0 1 0.64 -3 9 9 -2 0 -.057 -.048 -.006 -.053
Blue Jays 26 -3 3 -5 -3 0 3 1.90 2 -3 -2 -2 1 -.027 .012 -.030 -.017
TOTALS -10 -7 -15 -5 0 4 1.31 -1 6 7 -4 1 -.041 -.016 -.018 -.034
2010 Blue Jays 27 -5 3 -7 -1 -2 11 3.46 9 -3 -6 -6 2 -.016 .074 -.023 .051
2011 Blue Jays 28 8 8 9 12 -3 3 0.60 -4 0 -18 -2 2 .014 .044 .011 .055
2012 Blue Jays 29 26 26 20 -1 -2 25 4.51 46 38 -16 3 0 .025 .145 .063 .208
2013 Blue Jays 30 5 24 10 3 -1 20 3.78 41 35 -53 -2 2 .015 .128 .049 .178
TOTALS 47 56 17 19 -14 79 2.03 125 76 -59 -20 14 .001 .059 .016 .075


YEAR TEAM TRAA RCAA FRAA RC OWP RC/G TB EBH ISO BPA IBB HBP SAC SF GIDP OUTS PA POS
2005 Reds -5 -0.78 -2 5 .045 .039 .002 0 0 -2 -2 -3 0 -12 3B
2006 Reds 8 0.69 15 11 .027 .025 .035 -1 8 -3 0 0 0 13 3B
2007 Reds 10 0.72 14 -2 -.014 -.038 .017 0 9 -2 -3 6 0 25 3B
2008 Reds 5 0.33 18 9 .056 .059 .036 -4 5 -3 1 -1 0 6 3B
2009 Reds -3 -0.76 -10 -1 .009 .067 -.012 -1 1 -1 -1 0 0 0 3B
Blue Jays -1 -0.20 1 0 .039 .012 .008 -1 2 -1 2 2 0 -3 3B
TOTALS -4 -0.47 -9 -2 .025 .038 -.002 -2 2 -2 0 2 0 -3
2010 Blue Jays 1 0.15 23 8 .091 .066 .048 -1 -1 -2 1 -1 0 -10 3B
2011 Blue Jays 6 0.43 25 12 .030 .026 .027 -1 -2 -3 -1 -6 0 3 DH
2012 Blue Jays 53 3.55 89 21 .121 .191 .170 9 6 -3 3 6 0 70 DH
2013 Blue Jays 34 2.25 70 22 .113 .173 .126 4 0 -3 1 -8 0 38 1B
TOTALS 109 0.95 244 84 .058 .071 .061 4 27 -22 0 -5 0 129

OGB
05-29-2014, 11:27 PM
In his defense, he had a wrist injury that .707 year.

Ill admit I don't remember that, but his BA was dropping drastically every year. I don't see how you can blame a wrist injury for a .220 average when he still managed to hit (I believe) 13 home runs in 165 PAs.

Brutus
05-29-2014, 11:47 PM
everything vs the league


YEAR TEAM AGE G AB R H 2B 3B HR HR% RBI BB SO SB CS AVG SLG OBA OPS
2005 Reds 22 -8 -5 -10 4 -1 2 1.18 3 -2 20 -1 1 -.036 .008 -.031 -.023
2006 Reds 23 7 3 3 11 -2 2 0.35 17 1 4 -1 0 .004 .031 .016 .046
2007 Reds 24 30 0 16 -2 -2 1 0.02 12 -8 -1 -1 2 .016 .002 .014 .016
2008 Reds 25 -6 5 -10 1 -2 10 2.05 1 8 3 -8 3 -.016 .040 .001 .041
2009 Reds 26 -7 -10 -10 -2 0 1 0.64 -3 9 9 -2 0 -.057 -.048 -.006 -.053
Blue Jays 26 -3 3 -5 -3 0 3 1.90 2 -3 -2 -2 1 -.027 .012 -.030 -.017
TOTALS -10 -7 -15 -5 0 4 1.31 -1 6 7 -4 1 -.041 -.016 -.018 -.034
2010 Blue Jays 27 -5 3 -7 -1 -2 11 3.46 9 -3 -6 -6 2 -.016 .074 -.023 .051
2011 Blue Jays 28 8 8 9 12 -3 3 0.60 -4 0 -18 -2 2 .014 .044 .011 .055
2012 Blue Jays 29 26 26 20 -1 -2 25 4.51 46 38 -16 3 0 .025 .145 .063 .208
2013 Blue Jays 30 5 24 10 3 -1 20 3.78 41 35 -53 -2 2 .015 .128 .049 .178
TOTALS 47 56 17 19 -14 79 2.03 125 76 -59 -20 14 .001 .059 .016 .075


YEAR TEAM TRAA RCAA FRAA RC OWP RC/G TB EBH ISO BPA IBB HBP SAC SF GIDP OUTS PA POS
2005 Reds -5 -0.78 -2 5 .045 .039 .002 0 0 -2 -2 -3 0 -12 3B
2006 Reds 8 0.69 15 11 .027 .025 .035 -1 8 -3 0 0 0 13 3B
2007 Reds 10 0.72 14 -2 -.014 -.038 .017 0 9 -2 -3 6 0 25 3B
2008 Reds 5 0.33 18 9 .056 .059 .036 -4 5 -3 1 -1 0 6 3B
2009 Reds -3 -0.76 -10 -1 .009 .067 -.012 -1 1 -1 -1 0 0 0 3B
Blue Jays -1 -0.20 1 0 .039 .012 .008 -1 2 -1 2 2 0 -3 3B
TOTALS -4 -0.47 -9 -2 .025 .038 -.002 -2 2 -2 0 2 0 -3
2010 Blue Jays 1 0.15 23 8 .091 .066 .048 -1 -1 -2 1 -1 0 -10 3B
2011 Blue Jays 6 0.43 25 12 .030 .026 .027 -1 -2 -3 -1 -6 0 3 DH
2012 Blue Jays 53 3.55 89 21 .121 .191 .170 9 6 -3 3 6 0 70 DH
2013 Blue Jays 34 2.25 70 22 .113 .173 .126 4 0 -3 1 -8 0 38 1B
TOTALS 109 0.95 244 84 .058 .071 .061 4 27 -22 0 -5 0 129

Thanks, WOY. Are those counting stats PA adjusted?

Either way, that's definitely quite a leap he's made in ISO and some of the rate stats.

westofyou
05-30-2014, 12:08 AM
They are PA adjusted

SirFelixCat
05-30-2014, 12:29 AM
While Walt deservedly so should be fired for missing so badly on EE, you know who really looks bad in this whole mess? Yep, Billy Beane!

Big Papi was a Rule V draftee.

Chuckie
05-30-2014, 11:33 AM
There's no way of knowing for sure, but the people who act as if there is absolutely no chance EE is on PEDs are being more closed-minded than the people they criticize. People who say EE might be on PEDs get accused of "jumping to conclusions." However, the people who act as if there is no chance he took PEDs are not only jumping to a conclusion themselves, they are being extremely naive IMO.

reds44
05-30-2014, 11:46 AM
He could very well be juicing, really anybody could be and I wouldn't be surprised.

But 49 XBHs in 406 ABs as a 23 year old shows the power was always there. He had .793 OPS in Cincinnati as a 21-25 year old. Even his break out year, he went from 17 HRs to 42 HRs (obviously a huge jump), but his XBH's jumped to 65 from 46 with 114 more ABs. That's a jump for sure, but not anything earth shattering.

I think it's very possible that he just finally put it everything together in his prime. Doubles turned into homers, and away it went.

I wouldn't discount the fact he wasn't at 3rd base anymore helping him too. Having confidence in your game and not having to worry about giving a baby a concussion behind first base with his throws from 3rd couldn't have hurt anything.

Chuckie
05-30-2014, 11:57 AM
OK, fair enough. You don't think he's on PEDs, but you're not ruling it out. That's reasonable. I just don't like the people who act all offended when someone raises the suspicion that a player might be on PEDs (especially when there is a skyrocketing of numbers in the Jose Bautista mold). Those people act offended that someone is jumping to a conclusion ... when they are jumping to a conclusion themselves. Believing a player is squeaky clean is as much of a "conclusion" as believing a player is on the juice.

I don't know for sure if EE is on the juice. But let's just put it this way: If I had to bet my house, I'd definitely lean toward saying he's a PED user.

- - - Updated - - -


Big Papi was a Rule V draftee.

And a PED user (IMO).

Always Red
05-30-2014, 11:58 AM
He started hitting with such authority when he began taking that parrot for a walk.

Parrot power, not PEDS.

He would look good in LF, yes, but who could have predicted this?

The Reds, Jays and A's all passed on him in 2009-10, and the Jays gave him a 2nd chance.

I do enjoy watching him hit.

757690
05-30-2014, 12:03 PM
Taken alone, EE's power surge doesn't suggest much. But the fact the he, Bautisita and now Juan Francisco all put it together the day they got to Toronto raises suspicion. Remember, Toronto is where Clemens was first turned onto PED's. Nothing conclusive, but highly coincidental.

CySeymour
05-30-2014, 12:16 PM
Big Papi was a Rule V draftee.

As was Johan Santana

westofyou
05-30-2014, 12:29 PM
Awesome

All that testing and guys who pass it and yet... there are the accusations

Par for the course

Chip R
05-30-2014, 12:36 PM
Awesome

All that testing and guys who pass it and yet... there are the accusations

Par for the course

Not saying EE is juicing but the tests have been and are way behind in nailing the cheats. Track & Field and cyclists get tested all the time yet those sports are supposedly rife with steroid cheats. With the exception of Ryan Braun, A-Rod and the Biogenisis Bunch never tested positive.

westofyou
05-30-2014, 12:42 PM
Not saying EE is juicing but the tests have been and are way behind in nailing the cheats. Track & Field and cyclists get tested all the time yet those sports are supposedly rife with steroid cheats. With the exception of Ryan Braun, A-Rod and the Biogenisis Bunch never tested positive.

True.

I can't wait until the next Reds player comes along with a power surge (and there will be one some day.. though it seems unlikely lately) I'll be listening for the same accustations

traderumor
05-30-2014, 01:38 PM
True.

I can't wait until the next Reds player comes along with a power surge (and there will be one some day.. though it seems unlikely lately) I'll be listening for the same accustationsIn Toronto, its sustained and multiple players. Maybe its the ballpark, I dunno.

klw
05-30-2014, 01:40 PM
True.

I can't wait until the next Reds player comes along with a power surge (and there will be one some day.. though it seems unlikely lately) I'll be listening for the same accustations

Just go back two weeks or so and read the posts on Mesaroco.

757690
05-30-2014, 01:41 PM
True.

I can't wait until the next Reds player comes along with a power surge (and there will be one some day.. though it seems unlikely lately) I'll be listening for the same accustations

You mean Mesoraco? That's already been discussed in the game threads.

Wonderful Monds
05-30-2014, 01:45 PM
He could very well be juicing, really anybody could be and I wouldn't be surprised.

But 49 XBHs in 406 ABs as a 23 year old shows the power was always there. He had .793 OPS in Cincinnati as a 21-25 year old. Even his break out year, he went from 17 HRs to 42 HRs (obviously a huge jump), but his XBH's jumped to 65 from 46 with 114 more ABs. That's a jump for sure, but not anything earth shattering.

I think it's very possible that he just finally put it everything together in his prime. Doubles turned into homers, and away it went.

I wouldn't discount the fact he wasn't at 3rd base anymore helping him too. Having confidence in your game and not having to worry about giving a baby a concussion behind first base with his throws from 3rd couldn't have hurt anything.

Here's my thing: that power progression makes a lot of sense if the pitching environment never changed, but that's kind of how he progressed. He kept improving as though the league wasn't actually getting populated by an overwhelming amount of talented pitchers. He always profiled as a doubles hitter coming up, with. 20-25 HR power. Of course prospects can and do surpass their projections, but he's turned into a legit elite MLB hitter.

That alone might not be enough to raise my suspicions, I know I wasn't suspicious of say Chris Davis, but amazing hitting breakouts are now a trend in Toronto. It definitely raises my eyebrows.

Wonderful Monds
05-30-2014, 01:47 PM
True.

I can't wait until the next Reds player comes along with a power surge (and there will be one some day.. though it seems unlikely lately) I'll be listening for the same accustations

I don't think it's a shock or even particularly hypocritical for a fan to view another team's player through a more personally objective lens than a player on their own favorite team where emotions are involved.

westofyou
05-30-2014, 01:49 PM
I don't think it's a shock or even particularly hypocritical for a fan to view another team's player through a more personally objective lens than a player on their own favorite team where emotions are involved.
Of course, fair and balanced is probably preferred though eh?

puca
05-30-2014, 01:49 PM
OK, fair enough. You don't think he's on PEDs, but you're not ruling it out. That's reasonable. I just don't like the people who act all offended when someone raises the suspicion that a player might be on PEDs (especially when there is a skyrocketing of numbers in the Jose Bautista mold). Those people act offended that someone is jumping to a conclusion ... when they are jumping to a conclusion themselves. Believing a player is squeaky clean is as much of a "conclusion" as believing a player is on the juice.

I don't know for sure if EE is on the juice. But let's just put it this way: If I had to bet my house, I'd definitely lean toward saying he's a PED user.

- - - Updated - - -



And a PED user (IMO).

The point is anyone *could* be on PEDs, so why point the finger at individual players without any better evidence than they are playing well. I could just as easily claim my neighbor cheats on his taxes. He could be. He has a better car than me.

westofyou
05-30-2014, 01:49 PM
Just go back two weeks or so and read the posts on Mesaroco.

Sad, sorry to hear that... if it's in the game thread chances I missed it as I can't wear my boots every night

Wonderful Monds
05-30-2014, 01:50 PM
Of course, fair and balanced is probably preferred though eh?

Sure thing. And I think a lot of fans *try* to be, especially here even, but sometimes it's easier said than done.

Rojo
05-30-2014, 01:51 PM
Of course, fair and balanced is probably preferred though eh?

We're not journalists. I like speculation and opinion.

klw
05-30-2014, 01:53 PM
Sad, sorry to hear that... if it's in the game thread chances I missed it as I can't wear my boots every night
Also sad is that when Mesoraco was 27 for 54, I thought to myself "he could go 3 for the next 46 and still be hitting .300". Since that point he is 4 for 35. I hope he doesn't find out but I do blame myself.

Wonderful Monds
05-30-2014, 01:57 PM
The point is anyone *could* be on PEDs, so why point the finger at individual players without any better evidence than they are playing well. I could just as easily claim my neighbor cheats on his taxes. He could be. He has a better car than me.

I see your point, but there is a difference between playing well, and sudden and immediate breakout unprecedented by all previous career statistics or projections. Especially when it's for a team where this has become something of a reoccurring phenomenon.

westofyou
05-30-2014, 02:01 PM
We're not journalists. I like speculation and opinion.

Some people only drive on one side of the road though... or some like snails and some like oysters... I like snails and oysters

RiverRat13
05-30-2014, 02:47 PM
Some people only drive on one side of the road though... or some like snails and some like oysters... I like snails and oysters

I like turtles.

Norm Chortleton
05-30-2014, 03:02 PM
Home Runs hit in May 2014
Cincinnati Reds ........... 18
Edwin Encarnacion ...... 16

Brutus
05-30-2014, 03:03 PM
Some people only drive on one side of the road though... or some like snails and some like oysters... I like snails and oysters

I like driving left of center. Makes me feel my British ancestry coming out of the woodwork.

kpresidente
05-30-2014, 03:05 PM
Not to say I told you so, but I consistently argued back then that EE should be kept and moved to LF. I was more upset about him than I was about Stewart. But he was everybody's favorite target back then because of his defense at 3B and he wasn't fiery so he just had to go. One of the things that always happens around here is that people get caught up in looking at the team in generalized terms rather than specific players at specific spots. Oh, we need more defense or we need more OBP or we need more pitching. I think it's a way people get around making specific predictions but a bad way to look at things. I'm digressing a little bit but my point is EE wasn't a bad player back then, he just needed to get off 3B. You don't just go around dumping good players.

Tom Servo
05-30-2014, 03:46 PM
Not to say I told you so, but I consistently argued back then that EE should be kept and moved to LF. I was more upset about him than I was about Stewart. But he was everybody's favorite target back then because of his defense at 3B and he wasn't fiery so he just had to go.
I don't think that's completely accurate in regards to attitudes towards EE. A lot of us on Redszone were big fans of EE during his time with the Reds, but with his down year in 2009 and his defense not improving in the least, I think everyone just had the attitude of "Ugh, whatever, trade him/don't trade him, who cares". Rolen's addition really did a lot psychologically not just for the clubhouse but the fanbase as well as the Reds finished that year in a highnote.

Larry Schuler
05-30-2014, 03:48 PM
Anyone with half a brain and the benefit of hindsight we have today could have told you that keeping EE for three more years would have been the right move.

klw
05-30-2014, 03:59 PM
Anyone with half a brain and the benefit of hindsight we have today could have told you that keeping EE for three more years would have been the right move.
Look at how much he influenced the A's just by being on their squad for a three weeks between his Toronto release and his A's release. He made the team into that now has the best record in baseball. For example, Josh Donaldson had an OPS+ of 32 in 2010 for the A's. EE was there after that year and presto the last two years JD has been a 150 OPS+ beast. I am sure there are tons of examples.

membengal
05-30-2014, 04:02 PM
We're not journalists. I like speculation and opinion.

Speculation is one thing. Having an opinion based on speculation? Less than ideal.

Brutus
05-30-2014, 04:12 PM
Speculation is one thing. Having an opinion based on speculation? Less than ideal.

Oh come on, you've never ever formulated opinions based on speculation? Ever?

Everyone forms opinions based on speculation. If we can only form opinions based on established facts, we could never formulate a hypothesis to begin with. That is the staple of academic research, for that matter. Researchers form opinions based on speculation, and then set out to corroborate whether or not their opinions were valid. The only difference is here we don't have the ability to research whether our opinions are valid.

I seem to recall that one crazy man based an opinion solely on speculation that the world was round.

There's nothing wrong with forming opinions on speculation. One should be humble about admitting it's just an opinion and it's only based on speculation, but there is nothing wrong with holding an opinion on that alone.

membengal
05-30-2014, 04:13 PM
I don't know the facts, but, goshdarnit, I am MAD!

Yeah, opinion based on speculation? Less than ideal, as I said.

*BaseClogger*
05-30-2014, 04:39 PM
But you could say that about every single Major League team, as not a single franchise's fanbase is contained only within its DMA boundaries.

Those market definitions are what networks use to negotiate deals with content providers, so those definitions are wholly relevant to the discussion even though the markets weren't specifically drawn up to cater to Major League teams. Secondary markets are negotiated when applicable too, but again, that's the case with every baseball team out there. The secondary markets mostly even out.

Bottom line is that in terms of numbers, no matter how you slice it the Reds reside in one of the smallest markets in baseball. I once calculated every market based on a 30 mile radius and a 60 mile radius, and in both calculations Cincinnati was still one of the five smallest.

That's a grossly simplistic view, treating every team the same. The radius can't extend beyond 60 miles?

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/04/23/upshot/24-upshot-baseball.html

Brutus
05-30-2014, 04:49 PM
That's a grossly simplistic view, treating every team the same. The radius can't extend beyond 60 miles?

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/04/23/upshot/24-upshot-baseball.html

It's not like I had access to this type of data, and I was just doing it out of curiosity. It's not as if I were submitting my research for peer review or a scientific journal. What would you have me do? Being "simplistic" was a far better option than being "subjective" when I did it.

That link is neat, but even then there are several issues with the methodology as it relates to the discussion of markets. All that is measuring is most popular. Being most popular in an area doesn't necessitate being strong enough to support being included in a local market. That is, after all, what this topic is about. A team can be most popular in northern Montana but it sure as heck doesn't mean the local TV rights holder to Twins baseball is going to pay money to access the market.

It's true that there are no clear, consistent boundaries to how markets are drawn. These television operators do their own market research to decide what areas they'll pay for. But for my purposes, I was just coming up with a decent estimate on market numbers based on a consistent standard. Simplistic, yes. Absolute? Heck no. But I was going for ease and lack of subjectivity since I was not privy to actual market research.

dsmith421
05-30-2014, 05:05 PM
I don't think that's completely accurate in regards to attitudes towards EE. A lot of us on Redszone were big fans of EE during his time with the Reds, but with his down year in 2009 and his defense not improving in the least, I think everyone just had the attitude of "Ugh, whatever, trade him/don't trade him, who cares". Rolen's addition really did a lot psychologically not just for the clubhouse but the fanbase as well as the Reds finished that year in a highnote.

My recollection was that people were quite displeased that the Reds signed Joe Randa in 2005 because the team was going to be awful and they wanted EE blooded that year. Randa produced the GREATEST OPENING DAY MOMENT EVAR and then turned over third. Encarnacion was pretty much league average as a hitter but never got better playing third, Dunn was ensconsed in left, and the Reds had a productive Aurilia/Hatteberg platoon going at 1B with Votto on the way. He was not just bad at third base, he was life-threateningly atrocious. It was damned hazardous to sit behind first base. And, yeah, there were lots of rumors around town that Encarnacion wasn't real serious about his craft (read that however you want, but I was living in Mount Adams at the time and, well, yeah). I think the fact that the ultimate player's manager chose him as the hostage to shoot is telling.

Edwin's tenure in Cincinnati was notable if for no other reason than he merked Thom so badly that anyone with a sense of dignity would have immediately quit broadcasting and moved to a Trappist monastery to live out their life in solitude and contemplation.

But it was time for him to go.

reds44
05-30-2014, 05:30 PM
EE had a 103 OPS+ as a 22-26 year old in Cincinnati. So a slightly above average bat, which includes his rookie year and his bad half year post wrist injury. In EE's last full season in Cincinnati he had an .807 OPS as a 25 year old.

There were plenty of people who said hang on to EE and move him positions. It's not like he was an oaf playing third. He was fairly athletic he just couldn't throw to 1st base. LF would have made a lot of sense.

He had a bad season in 2009 with the Reds and Jays. It was sandwiched around a 108 OPS+ and a 109+ OPS season. People act like EE was some bum because he got DFA'd. With the exception of his rookie year and 2009, he's always hit. The only two seasons in his career he was sub 100 OPS+ was his rookie year and 2009.

He could always hit. You really shouldn't trade away 26 year olds who can hit. They should have at least been all over him when he was DFA'd.

reds44
05-30-2014, 05:36 PM
My recollection was that people were quite displeased that the Reds signed Joe Randa in 2005 because the team was going to be awful and they wanted EE blooded that year. Randa produced the GREATEST OPENING DAY MOMENT EVAR and then turned over third. Encarnacion was pretty much league average as a hitter but never got better playing third, Dunn was ensconsed in left, and the Reds had a productive Aurilia/Hatteberg platoon going at 1B with Votto on the way. He was not just bad at third base, he was life-threateningly atrocious. It was damned hazardous to sit behind first base. And, yeah, there were lots of rumors around town that Encarnacion wasn't real serious about his craft (read that however you want, but I was living in Mount Adams at the time and, well, yeah). I think the fact that the ultimate player's manager chose him as the hostage to shoot is telling.

Edwin's tenure in Cincinnati was notable if for no other reason than he merked Thom so badly that anyone with a sense of dignity would have immediately quit broadcasting and moved to a Trappist monastery to live out their life in solitude and contemplation.

But it was time for him to go.

This just isn't true. There were stories written about EE being on the field taking extra ground balls. I remember Fay writing one. So unless those "rumors" came from people who were going for the "lazy dominican" angle, that was never really a question.

westofyou
05-30-2014, 05:39 PM
He could always hit. You really shouldn't trade away 26 year olds who can hit. They should have at least been all over him when he was DFA'd.

Unless they are Willie Greene, or Ben Grieve,

dsmith421
05-30-2014, 05:46 PM
This just isn't true. There were stories written about EE being on the field taking extra ground balls. I remember Fay writing one. So unless those "rumors" came from people who were going for the "lazy dominican" angle, that was never really a question.

I wasn't talking about baseball issues. I was talking about an excess of exuberance in the evenings. And don't accuse me of racism unless you've got some damn good evidence.

Brutus
05-30-2014, 05:51 PM
I don't know the facts, but, goshdarnit, I am MAD!

Yeah, opinion based on speculation? Less than ideal, as I said.

Isn't that the snark you were lecturing about in another thread?

Not everyone that forms an opinion based on speculation automatically is out on a witch hunt and getting emotional over their tentative opinion. One can hold an opinion someone is using without being absolute about it.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with forming opinions about speculation. Nothing at all, provided people are humble that it is just an opinion and that they acknowledge someone shouldn't be treated any less without reason to substantiate such opinion. But since no one has argued any differently, there's really no reason for the crusade against opinions.

edabbs44
05-30-2014, 06:20 PM
If Edwin is doing something nefarious, and the same would go for the entire Toronto lineup, they should tone it down a bit. Be smart. When you steal the test, everyone knows you get a few wrong. 27% more HRs than the next highest non-Coors team is crazy.

Superdude
05-30-2014, 06:43 PM
If Edwin is doing something nefarious, and the same would go for the entire Toronto lineup, they should tone it down a bit. Be smart. When you steal the test, everyone knows you get a few wrong. 27% more HRs than the next highest non-Coors team is crazy.


"Let's see some weak grounders tonight fellas...edabbs44 is onto us!"

Wonderful Monds
05-30-2014, 07:06 PM
EE had a 103 OPS+ as a 22-26 year old in Cincinnati. So a slightly above average bat, which includes his rookie year and his bad half year post wrist injury. In EE's last full season in Cincinnati he had an .807 OPS as a 25 year old.

There were plenty of people who said hang on to EE and move him positions. It's not like he was an oaf playing third. He was fairly athletic he just couldn't throw to 1st base. LF would have made a lot of sense.

He had a bad season in 2009 with the Reds and Jays. It was sandwiched around a 108 OPS+ and a 109+ OPS season. People act like EE was some bum because he got DFA'd. With the exception of his rookie year and 2009, he's always hit. The only two seasons in his career he was sub 100 OPS+ was his rookie year and 2009.

He could always hit. You really shouldn't trade away 26 year olds who can hit. They should have at least been all over him when he was DFA'd.

Yeah man, an NL team should totally hang on to a slightly above average bat who has absolutely no fielding ability at all

jojo
05-30-2014, 07:14 PM
That's kind of the thing of it..... EE was about to become an expensive back up first baseman getting the occasional at bat from the far end of the bench. He was basically freely available to the league and ended up signing for a pay cut.

The his career has taken the upturn that it has is a GREAT story and testiment to EE but it's not grounds to criticize Walt.

Chuckie
05-30-2014, 09:49 PM
The point is anyone *could* be on PEDs, so why point the finger at individual players without any better evidence than they are playing well. I could just as easily claim my neighbor cheats on his taxes. He could be. He has a better car than me.

Exactly. He could be. You could be. Or you could not be and he could not be.

Do you like Green Eggs and Ham?

That point is people are not just throwing random accusations out there. Baseball is known for its rampant PED use and the scientists always being ahead of the tests, and when guys have extreme increases in production, there are going to be questions. The "bury our heads in the sand" era of the 90's is over. When a guy like Edwin Encarnacion starts raking -- especially in the new PED haven in Toronto -- it's going to raise questions.

Chuckie
05-30-2014, 09:56 PM
If Edwin is doing something nefarious, and the same would go for the entire Toronto lineup, they should tone it down a bit. Be smart. When you steal the test, everyone knows you get a few wrong. 27% more HRs than the next highest non-Coors team is crazy.

Shhhh! Nothing to see here. All the way legit. How dare you accuse the Blue Jays of such!

Always Red
05-30-2014, 10:45 PM
Baseball is known for its rampant PED use and the scientists always being ahead of the tests, and when guys have extreme increases in production, there are going to be questions. The "bury our heads in the sand" era of the 90's is over. When a guy like Edwin Encarnacion starts raking -- especially in the new PED haven in Toronto -- it's going to raise questions.

The scientists working for the athletes are ahead of the tests, the scientists working for the league are behind the tests.

Yay science!

westofyou
05-30-2014, 11:29 PM
Shhhh! Nothing to see here. All the way legit. How dare you accuse the Blue Jays of such!

Blue Jays??

Edabbs will accuse anyone.

He loves the chase!!

Superdude
05-30-2014, 11:31 PM
Baseball is known for its rampant PED use and the scientists always being ahead of the tests, and when guys have extreme increases in production, there are going to be questions.

First it was, "What Jose Bautista's doing is historically impossible without PEDs." Then came the classic, "Chris Davis better tone it down because this is unheard of." And the 2014 edition, "EdE, and all the Blue Jays for that matter, are blatantly juicing." This has become a futile charade we drag out every season that enlightens nothing beyond, "I'm not saying he's cheating, but so and so's probably cheating." Every year there's a late blooming power hitter to fuel the fire, and every year his accomplishment is wiped off the slate so as to accommodate the "stastistically unprecedented" argument for the next guy in the line of fire. Until the testing begins to even tenuously correlate to the red flags you guys have constructed, as opposed to the mixed bag of random minor leaguers and Yasmani Grandal, I'm going to believe power improvement isn't exclusive to the steroid era. Best of luck to your hunt though.

cincrazy
05-30-2014, 11:34 PM
I can't look back with the benefit of hindsight and slam Walt. I despised Edwin when he was here. His defense was awful and I wasn't nearly as thrilled about the potential of his bat as most others. Many days he seemed to be just going through the motions.

A lot of people want to poo poo the value of leadership nowadays, but I think Jose Bautista has helped Encarnacion mature a ton. And quite frankly, I'm happy for him. I watched him hit two bombs last night, and both times I leapt out of my seat in joy. I'm glad he's figured things out and is meeting his potential and then some.

Chip R
05-31-2014, 12:18 AM
There were plenty of people who said hang on to EE and move him positions. It's not like he was an oaf playing third. He was fairly athletic he just couldn't throw to 1st base.

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?

edabbs44
05-31-2014, 06:36 AM
I didn't accuse anyone...in this thread. My commentary was based solely on the fact that their power numbers are a significant outlier.

PepperJack
06-19-2014, 03:37 PM
http://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/mlb/reds/2014/06/19/former-red-edwin-encarnacion-returns-to-cincinnati/10870855/



Votto, who played with Encarnacion in the minors as well as with the Reds, did not see this coming.

"I'm stunned," Votto said. "I'd tell that to his face. For a guy to go where he was to one of the best hitters in the American League, it's really hard to predict that. I'm absolutely stunned. I'd bet he'd be stunned. He's right in that Jose Bautista mold where he went from being a released guy, maybe not in the major leagues to looking like a perennial threat to win the home run title and be an All-Star.

"He's walking, he's hitting for a reasonable average. He looks like a 40 home run guy, what more can you ask for?"

Tony Cloninger
06-19-2014, 06:25 PM
I am still mad about the Christy Mathewson trade.

How or why the Reds did not give Ken Williams more of a chance in the late 1910's or Eddie Joost in the mid 40's has been a big sore spot for me.

Ross Grimsley for Merv Rettenmund? Come on Bob Howsman!



Look ...you know who EE is? Hal McRae. All hit, probably less of a defender but not by that much.

PepperJack
06-19-2014, 07:04 PM
I am still mad about the Christy Mathewson trade.

How or why the Reds did not give Ken Williams more of a chance in the late 1910's or Eddie Joost in the mid 40's has been a big sore spot for me.

Ross Grimsley for Merv Rettenmund? Come on Bob Howsman!



Look ...you know who EE is? Hal McRae. All hit, probably less of a defender but not by that much.



If this is directed at me because I bumped the thread, don't worry, I don't miss Edwin at all. I think it's incredibly silly that some people pine for him after all these years.

I only bumped the thread because Fay did a story about him with Toronto coming into in Cincinnati for a weekend series, and there was quotes from Votto, and Bruce, about Encarnacion, Rolen, and the trade in general.

malcontent
06-19-2014, 08:47 PM
Ross Grimsley for Merv Rettenmund? Come on Bob Howsman!
I had a short conversation with Bernie Carbo down in Winter Haven in the spring of 1974 (his first with Boston).

He said that the Reds liked to "mold" their players. Then he mentioned Grimsley as another guy that didn't/couldn't fit the mold.

Tony Cloninger
06-19-2014, 09:50 PM
If this is directed at me because I bumped the thread, don't worry, I don't miss Edwin at all. I think it's incredibly silly that some people pine for him after all these years.

I only bumped the thread because Fay did a story about him with Toronto coming into in Cincinnati for a weekend series, and there was quotes from Votto, and Bruce, about Encarnacion, Rolen, and the trade in general.



I had no idea who did bump it up.

I was just basically stating that there are always going to be a player that gets away.

In 1978...... The Reds had Jack Billingham and Ross Grimsley go 35-20 ..... and while you could ask how the heck Billingham was so bad in 76-77 then changed leagues and improved.... Ross
had been gone for 4 years and should not have been a thought.... but Reds fans complained about that trade still.

Losing Mike Caldwell for basically nothing in a mid season 1977 trade proved even more terrible.

WOY though has said Bramberger? the Brewers PC taught him a spitter and that is why he got even better then pre-arm problems he had after 1974.

- - - Updated - - -


I had a short conversation with Bernie Carbo down in Winter Haven in the spring of 1974 (his first with Boston).

He said that the Reds liked to "mold" their players. Then he mentioned Grimsley as another guy that didn't/couldn't fit the mold.


Yes...neither did Andujar, who Sparky had a problem with.