PDA

View Full Version : Reds re-sign Ramon Hernandez to 1 year deal



savafan
11-15-2010, 07:55 PM
Why?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/11/reds-re-sign-ramon-hernandez.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Unassisted
11-15-2010, 07:58 PM
Mesoraco's not ready. Walt doesn't want Corky as the backup. That's what the deal says to me.

Redsfan320
11-15-2010, 07:58 PM
:bang::bang::bang:

Sorry if that's not constructive, but that just about sums up my feelings here. IMO, Hanny was ready for starter, and Mes in the wings- Like sava, I say "why?"

320

JaxRed
11-15-2010, 07:58 PM
I think it makes perfect sense.

Redsfan320
11-15-2010, 07:59 PM
Mesoraco's not ready. Walt doesn't want Corky as the backup. That's what the deal says to me.

Deal says to me, Hanigan will be backup all year. I don't care as much about Mes as that. Walt's already screwed half my avatar. Watch him bring OCab back to screw up the other half. :(

320

RedsManRick
11-15-2010, 08:03 PM
Walt subscribes to the "if it aint broke" school. We won 91 games with Gomes, Hernandez, etc. I think we'll see pretty much the same split as last year and if Mesoraco really forces the issue, Hernandez can most likely be moved at the deadline.

Let's be honest, Corky has a great name, a great mustache, and handles his pitchers well, but his back qualifies him for nothing more than occasional start. I don't think Walt wanted to go in to 2011 like that.

camisadelgolf
11-15-2010, 08:05 PM
I think it makes perfect sense.

WMR
11-15-2010, 08:06 PM
Their roles (H & H) heading into next season should be reversed from how they began this season... I hope everyone is on board with that going in.

savafan
11-15-2010, 08:09 PM
$3 million contract

WMR
11-15-2010, 08:10 PM
$3 million contract

Oh man that's way too much for 35 y/o RH, IMO.

We're going to pay a backup catcher 3 mill? Doubtful I'm guessing...

Redsfan320
11-15-2010, 08:14 PM
Their roles (H & H) heading into next season should be reversed from how they began this season... I hope everyone is on board with that going in.

If that's the case... I'm on board. But with Dusty... we all know it doesn't work that way.

320

Slyder
11-15-2010, 08:18 PM
If that's the case... I'm on board. But with Dusty... we all know it doesn't work that way.

320

Until Hernandez gets banged up again.

MikeS21
11-15-2010, 08:20 PM
It's a one year deal. I can live with that.

Let's see if Mes's 2010 is a fluke or the norm before we anoint him as the be all/end all solution. If he puts up good numbers at AAA through the end of July, then look to make some kind of move.

Hannigan strikes me as a part timer. Not sure he is an everyday player.

Redsfaithful
11-15-2010, 08:49 PM
I like Corky Miller, but I only want him playing if someone better has gotten hurt. Good move, hopefully it'll be Mes and Hanigan in 2012.

pedro
11-15-2010, 08:54 PM
Why?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/11/reds-re-sign-ramon-hernandez.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Because it was not a bad idea.

Most teams need two catchers. Hanigan is not the type of guy who is going to produce if he is forced to play 140+ games.

If Menorasco forces himself onto the ML roster then the Reds can flip Hernandez.

paintmered
11-15-2010, 08:55 PM
Hernandez and Hanigan are both guys who can't sustain their productivity over a full season. Platoon them, keep them fresh, and let Mesoraco continue to develop and force one of them out.

I don't mind this at all.

TheNext44
11-15-2010, 08:58 PM
I don't see Ramon providing $2.5M more production than Corky in 2011.

Not a big fan of this move.

Will M
11-15-2010, 09:05 PM
IMO $3M for a one year deal is a really really good deal for the Reds.
Ramon was worth 2.6 WAR last year. Even if he regresses a bit $3M is not a lot of money. Just a few years ago generic backup catchers were getting $2M/year as free agents. I suspect that even if Ramon regresses a lot & is only worth 1.0 WAR in 2010 that this will still be a fine deal for the Reds. Why?
I suspect salaries are going up a bit. Fangraphs had an article a while back speculating about this. The economy crashed in 2008 & went off a cliff in October 2008. 2008-2009 was not a good time to be a free agent. Then there was still a pretty good hangover during the 2009-2010 off season. Yet there are signs that the deals for the teams won't be quite so sweet this year. This was the thought behind picking up Gomes's option. Jeff Blum (yes that Jeff Blum) just got a 2 year deal for $2.7M. We was worth 0.6 WAR in 2009 & 0.1 WAR last year. Hiroki Kuroda (35 years old) reupped with LA for a 1 year deal at $12M. Maybe Walt felt this was too good a deal to pass up & the "Is Mes ready?" issue didn't play into it.

Just a thought: Walt may think Mes is ready & plans to use Ramon as the other catcher. Maybe teams have expressed interest in Hanigan. The Marlins want a pitcher & a catcher for Uggla. Hanigan & Leake for Uggla with a 48 hour window to sign him to a lomg term deal!

kaldaniels
11-15-2010, 09:05 PM
So we are bringing back one of the most productive catching corp in the NL at 4 million tops....yeah that's cool.

pedro
11-15-2010, 09:08 PM
I don't see Ramon providing $2.5M more production than Corky in 2011.

Not a big fan of this move.

Counting on any significant contribution from Corky Miller is not a good idea if you want the Reds to repeat their division championship.

mth123
11-15-2010, 09:10 PM
Can't fault the Reds for this deal and can't fault Ramon for wanting at least this much after his season. But I still think the staff is noticeably worse with Ramon behind the plate and I expect a big drop offensively (think .650 to .675 OPS). Given the effect on the staff, I'd rather have Corky at the minimum.

Wonder if this maxes out the payroll. I have the team at around $80 Million at this point.

kbrake
11-15-2010, 09:32 PM
I'm fine with this move as long as this doesn't eliminate the chance of fixing LF.

edabbs44
11-15-2010, 10:02 PM
You'll likely see close to a 50/50 split. I'm fine with this move.

westofyou
11-15-2010, 10:07 PM
I don't see Ramon providing $2.5M more production than Corky in 2011.

Not a big fan of this move.

Corky has 575 PA's as a MLB catcher in 10 years, RH has about 4500 more, I'm fairly certain that there's something to those numbers, I'm also fairly certain that RH will once again out perform Corky at the MLB level next year (If Corky even gets swings at that level)

Look forward to seeing Corky manage, for that's where he'll be mostly know for.

Tom Servo
11-15-2010, 10:09 PM
Strong move, Razor's been good.

guttle11
11-15-2010, 10:15 PM
One year contracts are great because they don't hurt the wallet long term. Pay him $3 or $20 mil, doesn't matter. I like having Ramon back. The pitchers like him, the players like him, he and Hanigan work well with each other.

This will allow Mesoraco to stay in Louisville and really work on the art of catching (with Corky most likely being his full season mentor), as well as letting him grow some more as a hitter. He won't be rushed, and should be ready to really contribute in 2012.

oneupper
11-15-2010, 10:33 PM
Mesoraco and Hanigan need to take some Spanish classes. Cueto, Volquez y Chapman hablan muy poco inglÚs.

Spitball
11-15-2010, 10:39 PM
So we are bringing back one of the most productive catching corp in the NL at 4 million tops....yeah that's cool.

...and due to the nature of the position, catching depth is important. Besides, with Cueto, Volquez, and Chapman, a 35 year old Spanish speaking catcher is a plus, in my opinion.

TheNext44
11-15-2010, 11:09 PM
...and due to the nature of the position, catching depth is important. Besides, with Cueto, Volquez, and Chapman, a 35 year old Spanish speaking catcher is a plus, in my opinion.

Rosetta Stone would save the Reds around $2,999,500. ;)

Redsfan320
11-15-2010, 11:10 PM
Mesoraco and Hanigan need to take some Spanish classes. Cueto, Volquez y Chapman hablan muy poco inglÚs.

O Cueto, Volquez, y Chapman pueden tocar algunos clases de ingles. ;)

Correct me if my Spanish is wrong, it's just some of what I've learned in my current HS Spanish.

320

TRF
11-15-2010, 11:32 PM
Counting on any significant contribution from Corky Miller is not a good idea if you want the Reds to repeat their division championship.



Look forward to seeing Corky manage, for that's where he'll be mostly know for.

i was so about to state this same thing.

Jpup
11-15-2010, 11:47 PM
good move by the Reds. Corky seems like a swell guy, but should not be on a Major League roster.

corkedbat
11-15-2010, 11:51 PM
Not gonna do any back flips, but I don't hate it like a Yankee either. Hernandez knows the staff, his Spanish is usefull and he is coming off a decent season.

Walt likes familiar faces too. Instead of bringing in somebody new for maybe a couple of months, bring back Ramon, you've still got Miller incase of injury and Mes doesn't have to be rushed - he can come up when he's ready. If that's sooner than later, then he can probably deal RG by the deadline(someone is always looking for catching) and might bring something minor.

If Mes needs the year, RH is only signed for a year - someone else woludl probably want more years. I like Miller better as a 3rd catcher than 2nd.

The $3M is a little high and I agree that Hanny should be the #1, but overall, I can live with it.

pedro
11-16-2010, 12:06 AM
Rosetta Stone would save the Reds around $2,999,500. ;)

Effective communication often involves more than just language. Culture is important too.

fearofpopvol1
11-16-2010, 12:45 AM
My (potential) beef is that I'd like to see Hanigan the starter and Hernandez the backup ie. a reveral in roles and I don't see that happening.

I'm fine with bringing him back and the money he'll be paid though, especially on a 1 year deal. I'm not confident Mez will be ready to start in the majors in April, but I hope he proves me wrong.

Patrick Bateman
11-16-2010, 01:12 AM
Seems like a reasonable contract. Great insruance. If Mes falls flatce, on his face, we'd have one of the worst catching rotations in the bigs.

If Mes keeps hitting, moving Ramon wont be difficult. If he doesn't then we have an affordable option.

Good move.

mth123
11-16-2010, 03:10 AM
good move by the Reds. Corky seems like a swell guy, but should not be on a Major League roster.

I've been a proponent of passing on Ramon and using Corky as an outside the box fallback. Its not because I or anyone else thinks that Corky is a world beater, but I just wonder if the overall move is optimal (and optimal is rarely possible I suppose). The reasoning is that the loss of Ramon could have been more than offset by multiple factors:

1. Improvement from the staff with Hanigan/Corky as opposed to Hanigan/Ramon. I think the improvement when someone other than Ramon is back there is real and noticeable and trumps any effect his ability to speak Spanish may have. Fact is, if his Spanish doesn't lead to improvement from the staff, then what good is it? The staff seems to perform better when he's not back there so I question how much impact his Spanish actually has.

2. A likely substantial fall-off from Ramon himself. Last season's great year followed three pretty bad to mediocre ones.

3. Increased playing time for Hanigan to minimize the effect of Ramon's absence (and probable improvement over Ramon as the alternative).

4. The eventual arrival of Mesoraco. Corky would probably only be a stopgap that wouldn't last the full season.

5. The use of that $3 Million to improve other spots.

Signing Ramon was probably the safe play, easy to defend and even the proponents of the alternative can't really complain much (if it sounds like I'm complaining I'm not, just discussing alternative thoughts). I'm even pleasantly surprised that its only $3 Million after Ramon's season. I just have to wonder if Walt just spent the last of his budget. If so, would we rather get by with just one starting caliber catcher (like most teams), a cheap heady back-up and a top prospect on the way while spending it on something else? Does this move force the Reds to pass on upgrades elsewhere? Does it force an ill advised extension for Arroyo to save a couple million in the short term? Does it force the team to pass on locking up one of the kids until next spring when it may cost the team dearly?

Its not a terrible move, just some things to consider.

Caveat Emperor
11-16-2010, 03:19 AM
If Menorasco forces himself onto the ML roster then the Reds can flip Hernandez.

If Mesoraco forces himself onto the ML roster, the better move is probably to keep Hernandez and flip the presumably higher-valued Hanigan.

I don't see how you can complain about bringing Hernandez back. Handing a job to a kid that shot from A-ball to AAA is a silly idea at best, and only slightly more sane than starting any statement with "Well, if Corky Miller can handle the backup catching duties..."

mth123
11-16-2010, 03:32 AM
If Mesoraco forces himself onto the ML roster, the better move is probably to keep Hernandez and flip the presumably higher-valued Hanigan.

I'd rather keep Hanigan, but I think you are right. Just because the Giants were able to move Molina is no guarantee that the Reds would find a taker for Ramon. Molina has long been considered a top defensive catcher who was coming off of 5 staright seasons of average to better offense for the position (in some tough hitting environments). Ramon has always been questionable on defense, had a fairly poor three year period prior to 2010 and even had some questioning his character in his Oriole days (issues that seem to have been overblown or are well behind him IMO). I think assuming the Reds could find a taker is a questionable assumption, but I think Hanigan with his lesser age and cost coupled with years of control could fetch a decent return.

Ron Madden
11-16-2010, 04:21 AM
I'm not real happy about it but I can live with it.

I don't care what language RH speaks, for the last two seasons the pitching staff has performed better when ever he wasn't behind the plate.

I don't think Mesoraco is ready yet but I hope he forces his way on to the 25 man roster some time during the 2011 season.

If that happens the Reds will have to eat Ramon's contract or trade Hanigan because nobody is gonna trade anything of value to get Hernandez with 3MM dollar price tag.

I hope I'm wrong about Hernandez but I don't think I am.

GAC
11-16-2010, 06:08 AM
Because it was not a bad idea.

Most teams need two catchers. Hanigan is not the type of guy who is going to produce if he is forced to play 140+ games.

If Menorasco forces himself onto the ML roster then the Reds can flip Hernandez.


Hernandez and Hanigan are both guys who can't sustain their productivity over a full season. Platoon them, keep them fresh, and let Mesoraco continue to develop and force one of them out.

I don't mind this at all.

You two are bringing way too much common sense to this discussion.

A solid catching tandem last year, and some are questioning why this FO is keeping it intact? RH signed a 1 year deal for the same amount he made in 2010 (3M). Plus, we're only paying Hanigan around .5M/year. And that is some how too much?

If Mesoraco is not ready, needs more seasoning - and I agree with that - then what other alternatives did this FO have?

redsfandan
11-16-2010, 08:06 AM
You two are bringing way too much common sense to this discussion.

A solid catching tandem last year, and some are questioning why this FO is keeping it intact? RH signed a 1 year deal for the same amount he made in 2010 (3M). Plus, we're only paying Hanigan around .5M/year. And that is some how too much?

If Mesoraco is not ready, needs more seasoning - and I agree with that - then what other alternatives did this FO have?
Sure, it makes sense if we know Ramon won't see a drop offensively. And, yes, I do think that's important since he's not here for his defense. I prefer this post:

I've been a proponent of passing on Ramon and using Corky as an outside the box fallback. Its not because I or anyone else thinks that Corky is a world beater, but I just wonder if the overall move is optimal (and optimal is rarely possible I suppose). The reasoning is that the loss of Ramon could have been more than offset by multiple factors:

1. Improvement from the staff with Hanigan/Corky as opposed to Hanigan/Ramon. I think the improvement when someone other than Ramon is back there is real and noticeable and trumps any effect his ability to speak Spanish may have. Fact is, if his Spanish doesn't lead to improvement from the staff, then what good is it? The staff seems to perform better when he's not back there so I question how much impact his Spanish actually has.

2. A likely substantial fall-off from Ramon himself. Last season's great year followed three pretty bad to mediocre ones.

3. Increased playing time for Hanigan to minimize the effect of Ramon's absence (and probable improvement over Ramon as the alternative).

4. The eventual arrival of Mesoraco. Corky would probably only be a stopgap that wouldn't last the full season.

5. The use of that $3 Million to improve other spots.

Signing Ramon was probably the safe play, easy to defend and even the proponents of the alternative can't really complain much (if it sounds like I'm complaining I'm not, just discussing alternative thoughts). I'm even pleasantly surprised that its only $3 Million after Ramon's season. I just have to wonder if Walt just spent the last of his budget. If so, would we rather get by with just one starting caliber catcher (like most teams), a cheap heady back-up and a top prospect on the way while spending it on something else? Does this move force the Reds to pass on upgrades elsewhere? Does it force an ill advised extension for Arroyo to save a couple million in the short term? Does it force the team to pass on locking up one of the kids until next spring when it may cost the team dearly?

Its not a terrible move, just some things to consider.
I can understand the reluctance of people to have Corky on the team. But, I'll be curious about what the other free agent catchers sign for.

cumberlandreds
11-16-2010, 08:47 AM
Mesoraco's not ready. Walt doesn't want Corky as the backup. That's what the deal says to me.

You summed it up perfectly. If Mes has a great spring and forces his way on the roster then it shouldn't be too hard to trade either Hanigan or Hernandez. Good veteran catchers are a premium in MLB. Miller is a good 3rd catcher but you don't want him to play everyday for a long stretch if an injury occurs. He's just good insurance if you have multiple injuries at the catcher position.

REDREAD
11-16-2010, 10:31 AM
I can't understand why people would be upset about Hernandez coming back at 3 million. Corky sucks. Third catcher at best.

Depth at every position is important if a team wants to contend. Hannigan and Hernandez were most of the most productive catching combos in the league last year. Even if Hernandez does regress, our catching still looks good.

This is a new Reds organization. We aren't going to roll the dice and hand 5 unready rookies starting jobs. Why rush Merseco? Why risk throwing him to the wolves? Why waste ML service time on him when he's not ready?

Strikes Out Looking
11-16-2010, 10:44 AM
The signing also allows Walt to knock one more uncertainty of his list as he works on deals with arb-eligible players.

Chip R
11-16-2010, 10:55 AM
Look forward to seeing Corky manage, for that's where he'll be mostly know for.


That and his sweet stache.

jojo
11-16-2010, 11:11 AM
Effective communication often involves more than just language. Culture is important too.

Fine, send Corky to the opera and teach him how to balance a book on his head while he walks... Oh, not that kind of culture... :cool:

Seriously, if the choice is Corky or RH, then its easily RH. He's being paid like he'd be something akin to less than a 1 WAR player (i.e. more like 2009 RH than 2010 infield hit lucky RH) which seems pretty on target to me.

Mesoraco isn't going to mold in Louisville because of this.

dfs
11-16-2010, 11:55 AM
I'm fine with this move as long as this doesn't eliminate the chance of fixing LF.

yeah. this.


I'm stunned anybody thought the reds were NOT going to bring back Hernandez. While you and I might not subscribe to the veteran leadership view of the world, it's pretty clear that both Walt and Dusty do. Hernandez was brought in to calm down the latin pitchers. Well, Volquez will be back for a full year, Cueto needs the influence, Cordero could use the influence and I'm in favor of anything that helps turn chapman into a productive starter as soon as possible.

So, from an "intangables" point of view, this is a no-brainer. The deal can be defended from a tangables point of view as well. Yes, catchers do fall off the age cliff, but it's a one year deal and when Ramon gets dinged up that's just more PT for Hanigan. If Devin performs he gets called up to back up Hanigan (or when they need a third catcher) and if Devin doesn't hit....they still have Corky around to flash the stash.

2 extra million this year is not going to bring a star to left field. .....

while I'm on that...it seems to me that the surest way to destroy a franchise is to get away from your own player development program and bring in stars. Yes, it did work for Walt in St. Louis, but it's destroyed the mets and cubs about a bazillion times in my life.

PuffyPig
11-16-2010, 12:04 PM
I don't see Ramon providing $2.5M more production than Corky in 2011.

Not a big fan of this move.

Corky is what he i s; a good emergency catcher to stash at AAA to help the younger pitchers develop and be ready if someone goes down.

You don't want him being a regular part of the catching tandem in the majors.

Last year our combined catching was as good or better as 80% of the teams in MLB. A Hannigan//Miller tanden would be below average.

Hoosier Red
11-16-2010, 12:21 PM
I've been a proponent of passing on Ramon and using Corky as an outside the box fallback. Its not because I or anyone else thinks that Corky is a world beater, but I just wonder if the overall move is optimal (and optimal is rarely possible I suppose). The reasoning is that the loss of Ramon could have been more than offset by multiple factors:



I think proponents of Hannigan and Miller as a combo are discounting too much the fact that the current arrangement allows both catchers to stay fresh. Hannigan really seemed to struggle when he had to deal with the grind of catching day in/day out. Miller's bat is not strong enough to sustain playing more than once maybe twice a week even with the possible improved pitching.

In this way, even if Hernandez is not as good as Hannigan. A 60/40 Hernandez/Hannigan split works better than a 85/15 Hannigan/Miller split.

Roy Tucker
11-16-2010, 12:33 PM
I think proponents of Hannigan and Miller as a combo are discounting too much the fact that the current arrangement allows both catchers to stay fresh. Hannigan really seemed to struggle when he had to deal with the grind of catching day in/day out. Miller's bat is not strong enough to sustain playing more than once maybe twice a week even with the possible improved pitching.

In this way, even if Hernandez is not as good as Hannigan. A 60/40 Hernandez/Hannigan split works better than a 85/15 Hannigan/Miller split.

Yep. Exactly.

I like Corky but the only thing he can hit is a meatball fastball. There is a reason he can pass through waivers and the Reds can keep him.

backbencher
11-16-2010, 12:40 PM
Another bonus: Mes gets to work with Corky in AAA. That's a nice development step for a guy who jumped two levels last year.

One more: If all perform to expectations and stay healthy, any one of Hannigan, Hernandez, Mesoraco or Grandal (as PTBNL) could be traded in-season for help. If the Reds fall out of contention, either one of the H/H boys could be traded to a contender.

westofyou
11-16-2010, 12:42 PM
Corky Miller is on his 11th team since 1998 for a reason, and it's not because he's good.

Corky Miller is an archetype, not a starter.

TheNext44
11-16-2010, 01:56 PM
I don't see Ramon providing $2.5M more production than Corky in 2011.

Not a big fan of this move.

I agree with everyone's assessment of Corky, but my statement was more about Ramon than Corky. I see a huge drop off for Ramon in 2011.

However, I do agree with Pedro that he has been very valuable to the development of the Hispanic pitchers, in more than just the languages he speaks, so if Cueto and others expressed a desire to keep him, which is very possible, I understand the move.

Redsfan320
11-16-2010, 01:59 PM
A 60/40 Hernandez/Hannigan split works better than a 85/15 Hannigan/Miller split.

I guess. But a 60/40 or 70/30 Hanigan/Hernandez would work much better, IMO, and that's what really makes me angry.

320

pedro
11-16-2010, 02:33 PM
I guess. But a 60/40 or 70/30 Hanigan/Hernandez would work much better, IMO, and that's what really makes me angry.

320

Why are you angry about something that hasn't happened yet. Hernandez got more AB's than Hannigan largely because Hannigan was hurt for a good while.

Heath
11-16-2010, 02:54 PM
Look forward to seeing Corky manage, for that's where he'll be mostly know for.


I just hope he doesn't turn into Bill Plummer or Jeff Torborg.

I think Corky's around so he can slide into a manager's chair in the Reds Org.

kaldaniels
11-16-2010, 02:58 PM
Where does all this Corky for a manager talk stem from?

westofyou
11-16-2010, 03:05 PM
Where does all this Corky for a manager talk stem from?

From the plethora of sub par catchers who hung onto the game forever as backups and then spent their lives looking at the game form the dugout.

That and the amount of adulation about his baseball acumen that those involved with the club seem to prattle on and on about.

Redsfan320
11-16-2010, 03:09 PM
Why are you angry about something that hasn't happened yet. Hernandez got more AB's than Hannigan largely because Hannigan was hurt for a good while.

Because it seems to me that, in accordance with the Walt/Dust way, it certainly will happen.

320

fearofpopvol1
11-16-2010, 03:10 PM
Why are you angry about something that hasn't happened yet. Hernandez got more AB's than Hannigan largely because Hannigan was hurt for a good while.

If both remain healthy for all of 2011, I would be very surprised if Hanigan had more PAs than Hernandez.

westofyou
11-16-2010, 03:12 PM
Because it seems to me that, in accordance with the Walt/Dust way, it certainly will happen.

320

You mean the guys who made the choices that got the Reds in the playoffs 6 weeks ago?

Those doofs...:p:

redsmetz
11-16-2010, 03:14 PM
Where does all this Corky for a manager talk stem from?

A number of folks have suggested, myself included, that Miller continues with the club as a possible manager some day. Not necessarily with the big club, but rather somewhere in the system. It's not a rarity to see someone with his pedigree ultimately move into a managerial seat.

Will M
11-16-2010, 03:45 PM
I don't see Ramon providing $2.5M more production than Corky in 2011.

Not a big fan of this move.


I agree with everyone's assessment of Corky, but my statement was more about Ramon than Corky. I see a huge drop off for Ramon in 2011.

However, I do agree with Pedro that he has been very valuable to the development of the Hispanic pitchers, in more than just the languages he speaks, so if Cueto and others expressed a desire to keep him, which is very possible, I understand the move.

Fangraphs last year placed a value of ~$4M on 1.0 WAR. There was an article on their site speculating that this might be higher in 2011.

Ramon's WAR:
2007 1.2
2008 1.5
2009 0.4
2010 2.6

Lets assume his production does in fact regress. Lets say it regresses a LOT.
He would have to be worth less than 0.75 WAR (based on 2010 values) for him not to be worth the contract.

Will M
11-16-2010, 03:55 PM
Assuming Hanigan is not trade bait I believe that this move shows that Walt believes Mes needs more time in AAA. Not a suprise. The guy started 2010 in high A. For him to play a significant role in 2011 would be quite a jump.

Plus Walt personally scouted the Reds minor league players in the AFL. Walt is a fairly smart guy. I am guessing Walt took all the information he had & decided that Mes was going to AAA. This is not a suprise either. Walt hasn't shown that he likes to rush prospects.

Downside to Ramon signing:
Mes suprises the Reds brass & tears up spring training. They spent $3M they didn't have to & now need to figure out what to do with 3 catchers.

Upside to Ramon signing:
Mes gets the AAA time the team thinks he needs.

The deal is for one year at $3M. If it was 2 years at $5M/year then I think everyone could groan. IMO the risk of this deal is low & the risk of planning on Mes being ready at the start of 2010 is moderate (or moderate to high). In essence the risk/reward tradeoff on this deal is good for the team.

Hoosier Red
11-16-2010, 03:58 PM
I guess. But a 60/40 or 70/30 Hanigan/Hernandez would work much better, IMO, and that's what really makes me angry.

320

My guess is they both catch between 70 and 90 games(maybe Mes or Miller take the additional 5-10) So in reality, no matter what you're not talking about a huge difference either way.

RedsManRick
11-16-2010, 04:01 PM
I agree with everyone's assessment of Corky, but my statement was more about Ramon than Corky. I see a huge drop off for Ramon in 2011.

However, I do agree with Pedro that he has been very valuable to the development of the Hispanic pitchers, in more than just the languages he speaks, so if Cueto and others expressed a desire to keep him, which is very possible, I understand the move.

Ramon could have a major drop-off and still earn his $3M, if not more. He produced ~2.5 wins last year, worth about $10M. As Jojo pointed out, he's being paid like a guy who produces less than 1 win.

As for Corky, in roughly a full season's worth of playing time, he's produced a grand total of 0.2 WAR and has been negative since 2004. His career batting line is .188/.270/.300. He'll be 34 next year. Expecting anything more than replacement level production from Corky is quite optimistic. So it basically comes down to whether you think Hernandez can just be mediocre next year. If he can, it's a pretty clear upgrade. That is unless you want to make the argument that Corky leads to notably greater run prevention through his handling of the staff.

Griffey012
11-16-2010, 04:17 PM
So we are bringing back one of the most productive catching corp in the NL at 4 million tops....yeah that's cool.

I am with this guy :thumbup:

PuffyPig
11-16-2010, 04:19 PM
I guess. But a 60/40 or 70/30 Hanigan/Hernandez would work much better, IMO, and that's what really makes me angry.

320

The only way to get to your prefered ratio is to sign Hernendez. So why would you be angry? Letting Hernendez get away guaranteed your preferred ratio can't exist. The ratio of Hannigan and Hernandez playing will be linked to their production.

Redsfan320
11-16-2010, 04:34 PM
The only way to get to your prefered ratio is to sign Hernendez. So why would you be angry? Letting Hernendez get away guaranteed your preferred ratio can't exist. The ratio of Hannigan and Hernandez playing will be linked to their production.

Cause I highly doubt my ratio will happen, so now all this does is hold Mes back, who I think will be ready very soon.

320

Griffey012
11-16-2010, 05:08 PM
Cause I highly doubt my ratio will happen, so now all this does is hold Mes back, who I think will be ready very soon.

320

Isn't it a better option to have a bonafide starting catching duo that excelled the previous season as compared to a starter who has never played in more than 90 games in a season, and a potential catcher of the future at AAA? What if Mes is not ready, then what do we do?

The 3 million spent solidifies the position, we do not have to rush Mes. Not only does it bring back Razor, it allows Hanigan to get plenty of rest, they have both proven to be better when rested. If Mes mashes in AAA he will get his shot assuming Razor and Hanigan do not put up similar numbers to last season. Walt and Dusty have both shown they prefer to ease the young guys in, let them perform, and get them a larger role if they deserve it. They are going to take the same route with Mes.

bucksfan2
11-16-2010, 05:17 PM
Ramon could have a major drop-off and still earn his $3M, if not more. He produced ~2.5 wins last year, worth about $10M. As Jojo pointed out, he's being paid like a guy who produces less than 1 win.

In this post PED environment does a better than average part time catcher make $10M/season? I get the idea of a dollar value assigned to WAR but this figure doesn't seem logical.

RedsManRick
11-16-2010, 05:45 PM
Cause I highly doubt my ratio will happen, so now all this does is hold Mes back, who I think will be ready very soon.

320

Not to be overly blunt, but are we really getting worried about holding back a 23 year old catcher with exactly 1 good season under his belt, 270 PA in the upper minors and a defensive skill set that is still developing?

The kid had an awesome year in 2010. We're all really excited about his potential. But if Mes spent all of next year in AAA, it would be nothing but good for his development. Catchers have a lot more to learn than position players. Let's see advanced pitchers adjust to him and him adjust back before we start penciling him in to the lineup.

If he went all Buster Posey in Louisville, I'm fairly sure that the Reds would not let Hanigan nor Hernandez stand in his way. Barring injury or utter collapse, both guys are quite tradeable should the need arise.

Gallen5862
11-16-2010, 07:32 PM
Ramon Hernandez is also valuable because he can also play 1B. So not only is he valuable in a catching tandom he can also spell Votto at 1B.

redsfandan
11-16-2010, 07:59 PM
Downside to Ramon signing:
Mes suprises the Reds brass & tears up spring training. They spent $3M they didn't have to & now need to figure out what to do with 3 catchers.
Even if everything goes right (H&H are both healthy and productive and Mes is on fire in AAA) there will still be a silver lining to waiting to bring up Mes in June. And at that point it will be a little easier to deal Ramon IF there's interest since he wouldn't cost much to another team for 3 months.
Ramon Hernandez is also valuable because he can also play 1B. So not only is he valuable in a catching tandom he can also spell Votto at 1B.
Count me as one that hopes that doesn't happen.

Captain Hook
11-16-2010, 08:58 PM
Even if everything goes right (H&H are both healthy and productive and Mes is on fire in AAA) there will still be a silver lining to waiting to bring up Mes in June. And at that point it will be a little easier to deal Ramon IF there's interest since he wouldn't cost much to another team for 3 months.
Count me as one that hopes that doesn't happen.

I think that now makes it unanimous.

The only negative in this deal is the money being spent.Not that it's too much considering that it really sets the Reds up to have fantastic debt at the position but time might tell us that it wasn't necessary.I'd be willing to bet it will.Debt is good but,I just hope we don't hear of deals that weren't made because of a few million bucks the team would've had to take on because the money was spent to keep Ramon.

edabbs44
11-16-2010, 09:30 PM
YouTube - EPMD - You Gots To Chill (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUGisre9xNU)

It's going to be ok.

PuffyPig
11-16-2010, 10:36 PM
Cause I highly doubt my ratio will happen, so now all this does is hold Mes back, who I think will be ready very soon.

320

That's totally illogical.

Your desired ratio had zero chance of happening if Henandez wasn't signed.

Blitz Dorsey
11-17-2010, 10:28 AM
I don't know how any Reds fan could have a problem with this. Of course Hanigan is going to get the majority of starts at catcher now. But what if he's injured? Do you want a journeyman like Corky Miller or an unproven rookie like Devin Mesoraco in there? I was hoping to see Razor Ramon get re-signed for another year and I'm glad it happened. You need two catchers during a 162-game schedule. Hernandez is solid in all areas (although clearly not great) and he's about as good as there is as far as backup catchers go.

The catching tandem of Hanigan/Hernandez was one of the clear strengths of the 2010 team. Why disrupt that if you don't have to? Sounds like Ramon was willing to come back for relatively cheap. I like.

REDREAD
11-17-2010, 12:46 PM
Cause I highly doubt my ratio will happen, so now all this does is hold Mes back, who I think will be ready very soon.

320

Even if Mes is ready, another year in AAA is not going to kill him.
Jay Bruce was promoted aggressively and had a lot of growing pains. Not saying that it was bad to call him up, but another year in AAA would not have killed him either.

My guess is that Mes is not ready. The guy only had about a 1/2 season in AAA, right?

Why get so angry about whether Ramon or Hannigan catches about 10-20 games.. If they are both reasonably productive, it won't make a difference. If Hannagan is clearly bettter than Ramon next year, I am sure Dusty will adjust playing time accordingly. There's been no evidence on the Reds that Dusty will play an inferior vet to a talented younger guy (although Hanngan isn't exactly young).

kaldaniels
11-17-2010, 04:33 PM
Perspective....

John Buck just signed a 3 yr 18 million dollar deal.

We got a bargain. Now just let it play out.

mth123
11-17-2010, 09:16 PM
I don't know how any Reds fan could have a problem with this. Of course Hanigan is going to get the majority of starts at catcher now. But what if he's injured? Do you want a journeyman like Corky Miller or an unproven rookie like Devin Mesoraco in there? I was hoping to see Razor Ramon get re-signed for another year and I'm glad it happened. You need two catchers during a 162-game schedule. Hernandez is solid in all areas (although clearly not great) and he's about as good as there is as far as backup catchers go.

The catching tandem of Hanigan/Hernandez was one of the clear strengths of the 2010 team. Why disrupt that if you don't have to? Sounds like Ramon was willing to come back for relatively cheap. I like.

The Reds need to improve and they just spent their last $3 Million on a position player that has no where to go but down. Chances for overall improvement are better by going with Hanigan and a cheap back-up and waiting for Mesoraco while using the money for an upgrade somewhere else.

Maintaining status quo sounds good, but bringing back the same guys who just had their best season in years w/o adding anything elsewhere leaves little room for improvement and lots of room for regression.

Griffey012
11-17-2010, 10:10 PM
The Reds need to improve and they just spent their last $3 Million on a position player that has no where to go but down. Chances for overall improvement are better by going with Hanigan and a cheap back-up and waiting for Mesoraco while using the money for an upgrade somewhere else.

Maintaining status quo sounds good, but bringing back the same guys who just had their best season in years w/o adding anything elsewhere leaves little room for improvement and lots of room for regression.

People also hated when we brought Ramon back on the cheap last season also. Basically saying the same things. And look how that move turned out.

So what if Hanigan regresses and Mesoraco performs like its no longer 2009 anymore? Then we have a heaping hole at the catcher position. Hanigan and Ramon are both much better as part time players, and they are also both very comfortable with the pitching staff. Allowing 1 position to get worse, while improving another position is simply treading water. Oh well, for that 3 million we could probably bring OCab back to help shore up the SS position instead I suppose. Hanigan/Ramon (for 3 mil) is an upgrade to Hanigan/whoever else we have in the system for cheap.

I'd be glad to hear some examples of how they could use that 3 million to upgrade somewhere else more significantly.

Ron Madden
11-18-2010, 05:17 AM
The Reds need to improve and they just spent their last $3 Million on a position player that has no where to go but down. Chances for overall improvement are better by going with Hanigan and a cheap back-up and waiting for Mesoraco while using the money for an upgrade somewhere else.

Maintaining status quo sounds good, but bringing back the same guys who just had their best season in years w/o adding anything elsewhere leaves little room for improvement and lots of room for regression.

Yep.

You can be on the right track, if you're not moving forward you'll get ran over.

GAC
11-18-2010, 05:35 AM
Maintaining status quo sounds good, but bringing back the same guys who just had their best season in years w/o adding anything elsewhere leaves little room for improvement and lots of room for regression.

That addition (improvement) needs to be addressed in other areas of this team. And I don't see how spending approximately that same amount in 2011 to retain that same successful catching tandem somehow prevents us from doing that upgrade elsewhere?

And regression to what? Hernandez' career numbers - and we are talking the catching position, are.... .265 BA .329 OB% .418 SLG% .747 OPS

He improved on that somewhat last year, but maybe that was because he, as well as Hanigan, were kept fresh by splitting the responsibilities?

I just can't understand how some even suggest replacing RH with a really bad Miller in hopes that Mesoraco will somehow make the roster next season. And if he doesn't, then what are we stuck with for 2011?

I think some are really straining at a gnat here IMO.

mth123
11-18-2010, 05:38 AM
People also hated when we brought Ramon back on the cheap last season also. Basically saying the same things. And look how that move turned out.

So what if Hanigan regresses and Mesoraco performs like its no longer 2009 anymore? Then we have a heaping hole at the catcher position. Hanigan and Ramon are both much better as part time players, and they are also both very comfortable with the pitching staff. Allowing 1 position to get worse, while improving another position is simply treading water. Oh well, for that 3 million we could probably bring OCab back to help shore up the SS position instead I suppose. Hanigan/Ramon (for 3 mil) is an upgrade to Hanigan/whoever else we have in the system for cheap.

I'd be glad to hear some examples of how they could use that 3 million to upgrade somewhere else more significantly.

Well, if Hanigan regresses (which he will at least somewhat because .800+ OPS from him was nice but not something anyone should count on), Mesoraco gets a look. If he fails you spend the season with a weak hitting catching tandem consisting of Hanigan and Miller who have a nice impact on the staff batting in the 8 hole. I'm guessing that with Ramon we're likely to see that anyhow (sans the nice impact on the staff).

Meanwhile, the team's limited resources need to be directed toward the holes in key spots like lead-off and the 4 or 5 hole. Second half Rolen showed he's not really middle of the order material (though I think he'd be a great choice to bat second) and none of Phillips, Stubbs and Gomes should probably hit higher than 6th. Votto and Bruce can fill 2 spots in the middle but the team really needs a 4 or 5 hitter.

As for the impact of $3 Million, Justin Upton will make $4.25 Million in 2011. Include Alonso and his $600K in the deal and that $3 Million get's you in spitting distance. That is an easy example and probably more extreme than normal, but I'd imagne there are lots of $4 to $5 Million dollar guys out there who could help (Marco Scutaro? Jason Bartlett?) that may not even get consideration with the team nearing its budget limit.

mth123
11-18-2010, 05:56 AM
That addition (improvement) needs to be addressed in other areas of this team. And I don't see how spending approximately that same amount in 2011 to retain that same successful catching tandem somehow prevents us from doing that upgrade elsewhere?

And regression to what? Hernandez' career numbers - and we are talking the catching position, are.... .265 BA .329 OB% .418 SLG% .747 OPS

He improved on that somewhat last year, but maybe that was because he, as well as Hanigan, were kept fresh by splitting the responsibilities?

I just can't understand how some even suggest replacing RH with a really bad Miller in hopes that Mesoraco will somehow make the roster next season. And if he doesn't, then what are we stuck with for 2011?

I think some are really straining at a gnat here IMO.

If Ramon regresses to his career numbers, I'd be really happy with that. I'm looking at 2009 as a more realistic expectation. I actually am expecting a range where his 2009 OPS in the .690s is at the top of the range I'd expect. Using career numbers as an expectation for a 35 y/o catcher with a history of injury issues is probably optimistic. Those numbers are influenced by what he did as a 25 to 30 year old and probably not representative of his current worn down ability. Heck, Johnny Bench announced his retirement at 35 and had been a part-timer for several years before that. I'm expecting a .675 OPS with a continued trend of the staff performing much worse while he's out there. I'd get by with what we have (a starting caliber guy, a heady defensive back-up and a top prospect on the way) which is still better than most teams. I'd be trying to address lead-off and clean-up with the little money I have to play with and not worry about adding a few points of OPS in the 8 hole (especially when it impacts the staff negatively).

Ron Madden
11-18-2010, 06:14 AM
That addition (improvement) needs to be addressed in other areas of this team. And I don't see how spending approximately that same amount in 2011 to retain that same successful catching tandem somehow prevents us from doing that upgrade elsewhere?

And regression to what? Hernandez' career numbers - and we are talking the catching position, are.... .265 BA .329 OB% .418 SLG% .747 OPS

He improved on that somewhat last year, but maybe that was because he, as well as Hanigan, were kept fresh by splitting the responsibilities?

I just can't understand how some even suggest replacing RH with a really bad Miller in hopes that Mesoraco will somehow make the roster next season. And if he doesn't, then what are we stuck with for 2011?

I think some are really straining at a gnat here IMO.


GAC, I respect your opinion and I understand that Hanigan and Hernandez were very productive in 2010. What worries me is Ramon is 35 years old with a bad knee, the catchers position can be fatal for old guys with bad knees. (believe me I know) ;)

It's not that I want to rush Mesoraco, I believe another year in AAA would be in his best interest. I'd trust Hanigann as the number one catcher with any cheaper no hit good glove defensive guy as his back up.

I hope I'm wrong but I expect Hernandez' production to drop drastically in 2011.

Griffey012
11-18-2010, 10:43 AM
Well, if Hanigan regresses (which he will at least somewhat because .800+ OPS from him was nice but not something anyone should count on), Mesoraco gets a look. If he fails you spend the season with a weak hitting catching tandem consisting of Hanigan and Miller who have a nice impact on the staff batting in the 8 hole. I'm guessing that with Ramon we're likely to see that anyhow (sans the nice impact on the staff).

Meanwhile, the team's limited resources need to be directed toward the holes in key spots like lead-off and the 4 or 5 hole. Second half Rolen showed he's not really middle of the order material (though I think he'd be a great choice to bat second) and none of Phillips, Stubbs and Gomes should probably hit higher than 6th. Votto and Bruce can fill 2 spots in the middle but the team really needs a 4 or 5 hitter.

As for the impact of $3 Million, Justin Upton will make $4.25 Million in 2011. Include Alonso and his $600K in the deal and that $3 Million get's you in spitting distance. That is an easy example and probably more extreme than normal, but I'd imagne there are lots of $4 to $5 Million dollar guys out there who could help (Marco Scutaro? Jason Bartlett?) that may not even get consideration with the team nearing its budget limit.

The way I see it is in 2009 when Ramon was oft injured and had the worst season of his career, he and Hanigan combined for 1.6 WAR. Hanigan's production dropped considerably that season when he was forced into full time duty due to Ramon's injuries.

Last season both were mainly healthy and exceeded expectations producing a combined 4.8 WAR.

I cannot expect last season's combined production to continue. Averaging Hanigan's WAR from 09 and 10 I'll peg him at a 1.5 WAR for 2011. Hernandez was 2.6 last season and .4 the year before. The stay on the conservative side I'll take the average WAR for his 3 season's from 07-09, which was slightly above 1 WAR. Ramon's biggest increase in production last season was due to a large increase in avg and BABIP. As a result, he is likely to regress, but not to 2009 levels, which were well below his norms. The conservative prediction is that they will combine for about 2.5 WAR next season at about $3.5 million.

On the other hand, the best we can hope for from Corky is 0.0 WAR, he is the definitely of replacement player. So that combination gives us 1.5 WAR for about .8 million, assuming Hanigan's production doesn't decrease with the extended amounts of playing time.

Under what is basically the worst case scenario resigning Ramon adds 1 WAR and they combine for 2.5 WAR, while the best case scenario would be last season where they combine for 4.8 WAR and Ramon adds 2.6 WAR.

With Ramon/Hanigan we are looking at a WAR range of 2.5 to 4.8, for 3.5 million
With Hanigan/Corky we are looking at a WAR range of about 1.5 to 2, for .8 million.
We basically play 2.7 million for an increase in WAR of 1 to 2.8. Not a bad deal.

Put those 3 millions towards paying for Scutaro or Bartlett via a trade. Scutaro is 35 with declining defense and probably declining skills. Last year he posted a 2.1 WAR with Boston. Janish could probably post 1 WAR on defense alone, not a big upgrade. Bartlett made a name for himself with a fluky .364 BABIP which led to a .320 average and 4.9 WAR in 2009. Last year his BABIP regressed to a reasonable .299 and he put up .7 WAR. He isn't much of an upgrade to Janish or any other in house replacement. His defense is also on the decline. We would not be getting anymore better by paying these guys what we are paying Ramon.

As for acquiring Upton at 4.5 million, he is a bargain right now much like our own Jay Bruce, he will take a heap of talent to get, and I can't imagine a scenario where Ramon's $3 million got in the way of paying $4.5 million for Upton, under budget or over budget.

REDREAD
11-18-2010, 10:49 AM
The Reds need to improve and they just spent their last $3 Million on a position player that has no where to go but down. Chances for overall improvement are better by going with Hanigan and a cheap back-up and waiting for Mesoraco while using the money for an upgrade somewhere else.

Maintaining status quo sounds good, but bringing back the same guys who just had their best season in years w/o adding anything elsewhere leaves little room for improvement and lots of room for regression.

Did we not learn anything from the year that Bako was forced to do the bulk of the catching duties? Corky would be just as bad or worse. So, can we agree that a replacement level player like Corky is not acceptable, especially since it would only save a hair over 2 million (Isn't the min salary approx 700k now?)

If we let Ramon go, who is the cheap replacement? What FA catchers do you have in mind? Who would you trade for?

Sure, Ramon might regress due to his age. He's an injury risk (most catchers are). But he provides quality depth. He's probably the best backup catcher in baseball now. If the Reds gave him 8 million, I'd be up in arms too, but 3 million is nothing for a quality player like Ramon. Again, there is no evidence that if Hannagan is playing better, his playing time will suffer. Dusty has consistently played the more talented player in Cincy when given two options.

3 million for Ramon is a bargain. If the Reds truly only had 3 million left in the bank, spending it on Ramon is as good as any other move they could've made. We aren't likely to get a middle of the order bat for 3 million (and if one became available, I'm sure Cast would pony up).

westofyou
11-18-2010, 10:55 AM
Sure, Ramon might regress due to his age. He's an injury risk (most catchers are).

This is true, and if anyone complains about RH's age and then looks at Corky as a replacement they must be overlooking the fact that Corky is 2 months older.

redsfandan
11-18-2010, 11:29 AM
I just can't understand how some even suggest replacing RH with a really bad Miller in hopes that Mesoraco will somehow make the roster next season. And if he doesn't, then what are we stuck with for 2011?

I think some are really straining at a gnat here IMO.


This is true, and if anyone complains about RH's age and then looks at Corky as a replacement they must be overlooking the fact that Corky is 2 months older.
Am I the only one that doesn't see it as Ramon vs Corky?

westofyou
11-18-2010, 11:38 AM
Am I the only one that doesn't see it as Ramon vs Corky?

In the big picture it's not.

Small picture is folks in this thread have said you can get from CM what you could get from RH.

That said John Buck just signed a big contract, Hanigan will likely never catch 100 games a season, he's not a big guy (and neither is RH in stature)

Who out there is worth a look at this point? And would you trade talent for them?

TheNext44
11-18-2010, 01:12 PM
In the big picture it's not.

Small picture is folks in this thread have said you can get from CM what you could get from RH.

That said John Buck just signed a big contract, Hanigan will likely never catch 100 games a season, he's not a big guy (and neither is RH in stature)

Who out there is worth a look at this point? And would you trade talent for them?

Just for clairification, I think the argument against the Hernandez signing is not that he is equal to Corky, just not worth $2.5M more than Corky.

westofyou
11-18-2010, 01:15 PM
Just for clairification, I sthink the argument against the Hernandez signing is not that he is equal to Corky, just not worth $2.5M more than Corky.

I think he is myself, funny thing is historically it's not even close.


RH career to date (may be incomplete) $40,659,376
CM career to date (may be incomplete) $1,488,000

TheNext44
11-18-2010, 01:28 PM
I think he is myself, funny thing is historically it's not even close.


RH career to date (may be incomplete) $40,659,376
CM career to date (may be incomplete) $1,488,000

Let me rephrase...

That Hernandez will be worth $2.5M more than Corky in 2011.

I just can see Hernandez either getting injured or pitchers figuring out that he has no power and relies on going the other way for most of his hits. I hope I'm wrong, but I could see him with a sub .700 OPS next season.

Now if the Reds have the budget where signing Hernandez doesn't prohibit them from making other improvements, I have no problem with it.

pedro
11-18-2010, 01:36 PM
Corky has no business getting any appreciable AB's in the majors. NONE.

Career Stats


TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS

Total -- 199 504 41 95 23 0 11 59 44 117 1 0 .188 .270 .300 .570

westofyou
11-18-2010, 01:56 PM
I hope I'm wrong, but I could see him with a sub .700 OPS next season.


Yep, but then again is he getting paid to be a hitter?

TheNext44
11-18-2010, 02:09 PM
Yep, but then again is he getting paid to be a hitter?

There are plenty of all glove catchers at there who will play for the minimum.

Kinda my point.

TheNext44
11-18-2010, 02:13 PM
Corky has no business getting any appreciable AB's in the majors. NONE.

Career Stats


TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS

Total -- 199 504 41 95 23 0 11 59 44 117 1 0 .188 .270 .300 .570


Fine. Keep him in AAA as the emergancy catcher.

Corky's not the only backup catcher who can be signed for the minimum.

westofyou
11-18-2010, 02:16 PM
There are plenty of all glove catchers at there who will play for the minimum.

Kinda my point.

Like Paul Bako in 08?

299 AB's led the team for catchers, - 2.09 RC/27 below the average.

Griffey012
11-18-2010, 02:46 PM
Corky has no business getting any appreciable AB's in the majors. NONE.

Career Stats


TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS

Total -- 199 504 41 95 23 0 11 59 44 117 1 0 .188 .270 .300 .570


:D:D:D:D:D :beerme: :thumbup:

pedro
11-18-2010, 03:06 PM
There are plenty of all glove catchers at there who will play for the minimum.

Kinda my point.

I'm sort of perplexed as why it's a priority for the Reds second catcher to make the minimum or why having one who can't hit is such a grand idea.

TheNext44
11-18-2010, 03:10 PM
I'm sort of perplexed as why it's a priority for the Reds second catcher to make the minimum or why having one who can't hit is such a grand idea.

Like I said, it's only important if it affects other moves. It's not a big deal, I just don't think it was necessary.

mth123
11-18-2010, 08:44 PM
I'm sort of perplexed as why it's a priority for the Reds second catcher to make the minimum or why having one who can't hit is such a grand idea.

The priority is for the Reds to address the lead-off and clean-up spots. Ramon does neither and his signing maxed out the budget. Its got nothing to do with whether Ramon is worth $3 Million and everything to do with how the Reds should spend the $3 Million. The team has a starting caliber player in Hanigan and one of the top catching prospects in the game due to arrive at some point in 2011. The likelihood is that somebody other than those two will only need to catch around 20 games in 2011. My personal belief is that Ramon adds some offense over Corky, but not really so much that it will make an impact. So we can pay $3 Million to Ramon to allow the tandem of he and Hanigan to combine for around a .720 OPS in the 8 hole, or we can just let Hanigan play a little more in the first half and live with a combined .650 or so until the All Star break when Mesoraco likely arrives on the scene. Even if its .650 all year, the difference isn't going to change whether the Reds take the next step from nice team who can win if everything goes right again to serious championship contender, but somebody else that they could acquire with that money that addresses the lead-off or clean-up spots just might get the Reds to the next level.

Say you have $15,000. There is a really nice car that wold be a really good value at that price available and easy to acquire. But stepping back, you can see that your spouse needs a couple medical procedures to restore quality of life, your fridge isn't keeping your food cold and you risk your health by eating stuff from inside and your roof is leaking in a couple spots. Should you still spend your last $15,000 on the car even if its a good value?

I wanted the Reds to make due with the car they have and spend the resources they've got on the medical procedure, a new fridge and fixing the roof.

pedro
11-18-2010, 08:48 PM
The priority is for the Reds to address the lead-off and clean-up spots. Ramon does neither and his signing maxed out the budget. Its got nothing to do with whether Ramon is worth $3 Million and everything to do with how the Reds should spend the $3 Million. The team has a starting caliber player in Hanigan and one of the top catching prospects in the game due to arrive at some point in 2011. The likelihood is that somebody other than those two will only need to catch around 20 games in 2011. My personal belief is that Ramon adds some offense over Corky, but not really so much that it will make an impact. So we can pay $3 Million to Ramon to allow the tandem of he and Hanigan to combine for around a .720 OPS in the 8 hole, or we can just let Hanigan play a little more in the first half and live with a combined .650 or so until the All Star break when Mesoraco likely arrives on the scene. Even if its .650 all year, the difference isn't going to change whether the Reds take the next step from nice team who can win if everything goes right again to serious championship contender, but somebody else that they could acquire with that money that addresses the lead-off or clean-up spots just might get the Reds to the next level.

Say you have $15,000. There is a really nice car that wold be a really good value at that price available and easy to acquire. But stepping back, you can see that your spouse needs a couple medical procedures to restore quality of life, your fridge isn't keeping your food cold and you risk your health by eating stuff from inside and your roof is leaking in a couple spots. Should you still spend your last $15,000 on the car even if its a good value?

I wanted the Reds to make due with the car they have and spend the resources they've got on the medical procedure, a new fridge and fixing the roof.

How do you know for sure that this maxed the budget out?

As for rushing Menorasco, counting on Corky Miller, or expecting Hanigan to perform well if he has to catch 130+ games, my opinion is that's a bad plan for success. It appears that Jocketty agrees.

mth123
11-18-2010, 09:08 PM
How do you know for sure that this maxed the budget out?

As for rushing Menorasco, counting on Corky Miller, or expecting Hanigan to perform well if he has to catch 130+ games, my opinion is that's a bad plan for success. It appears that Jocketty agrees.

They are pretty much on track for an $80 Million payroll as is. They said a slight increase from last year, that's it. Jocketty was even quoted as saying he won't be pursuing free agents other than his own.

First half, Hanigan starts 60 games while Corky starts 20. Mesoraco arrives and starts say 50 or so while the worn down Hanigan starts another 32. Nobody is worn down. Corky Miller isn't the centerpiece of the team like everyone fears and the Reds take a shot at being better by making an acquisition. If I were to project the future, simply bringing back the same roster won't be good enough. We'll see regressions from Hernandez, Rolen, Rhodes, Cairo, Janish, Heisey and Hanigan. Votto will still be good, but he won't lead the league in OBP, Slugging and OPS again. Stubbs and Gomes will probably play about the same and hopefully Phillips can still be an asset every day. Only a little improvement from Bruce will be on the plus side to offset all that. They may benefit if Wood and Bailey can give them full seasons and take the next step, but Arroyo and Cueto probably tread water and the bullpen probably won't be better (and likely worse).

Status quo Reds win 82 to 85 games IMO. They need to fill impact roles more capably to get to the next level IMO. Passing on Ramon while riding Hanigan a little harder and waiting for the top prospect to arrive seems like a reasonable way to free up some cash to do just that. It beats the heck out of an ill advised extension for Arroyo to save a couple million or spending the season with Johnny Gomes in LF again.

pedro
11-18-2010, 09:12 PM
I hear what you're saying but don't like that plan. What if Menorasco doesn't progress? What if Hanigan regresses? What if Someone gets hurt? Catcher is a bad bad place to have a lack of depth.

As for giving Corky Miller as much as a single start on purpsose? Horrible idea IMO.

pedro
11-18-2010, 09:16 PM
I do agree that the Reds have some holes to fill, I just think that's going to come through a trade or trade(s), not free agency.

mth123
11-19-2010, 07:19 AM
I do agree that the Reds have some holes to fill, I just think that's going to come through a trade or trade(s), not free agency.

You still have to have money in the budget to pay the players you acquire. The time for this team is 2011 and 2012. After that Phillips and Rolen will be gone or in decline (and any replacement on the horizon is a huge drop off), the core will be expensive and this group won't be able to stay together. Now is the time to deal a couple prospects for established players who can help, but that will increase the payroll. With the budget tight, allocating $3 Million to add a second starting caliber catcher to share the 8 hole when one is already on the roster (and better) and the top position prospect in the system is on the cusp seems like a luxury when some more important pieces need upgrading.

TRF
11-19-2010, 11:22 AM
Mesoraco could kick the door down in 2011 in ST.

And the Reds won't call him up till the end of May, and maybe not then.

And that's probably the best thing for his development. You can look at all the peripherals of his time at low and high A ball. You can excuse the lack of power early due to his thumb injuries. But ultimately, baseball is a confidence game as much as it is a game of skill, talent and tools. That he can hit does not mean he will hit. And I'm thinking he probably doesn't know his LD% at Sarasota was very good. What he know is he made a lot of outs in 2007, 2008, and 2009. He knows he's coming off a very good year and that he played at 3 levels. Now he needs to know he can do it at AAA, which he has not proven yet. He had a great year, but he didn't storm through the system like Adam Dunn. Not every player needs to. He's 22, and will likely make his MLB debut in 2011. If that happens when rosters expand, he'll be 23 for a couple of months.

He's got time.

Griffey012
11-19-2010, 12:11 PM
The priority is for the Reds to address the lead-off and clean-up spots. Ramon does neither and his signing maxed out the budget. Its got nothing to do with whether Ramon is worth $3 Million and everything to do with how the Reds should spend the $3 Million. The team has a starting caliber player in Hanigan and one of the top catching prospects in the game due to arrive at some point in 2011. The likelihood is that somebody other than those two will only need to catch around 20 games in 2011. My personal belief is that Ramon adds some offense over Corky, but not really so much that it will make an impact. So we can pay $3 Million to Ramon to allow the tandem of he and Hanigan to combine for around a .720 OPS in the 8 hole, or we can just let Hanigan play a little more in the first half and live with a combined .650 or so until the All Star break when Mesoraco likely arrives on the scene. Even if its .650 all year, the difference isn't going to change whether the Reds take the next step from nice team who can win if everything goes right again to serious championship contender, but somebody else that they could acquire with that money that addresses the lead-off or clean-up spots just might get the Reds to the next level.

Say you have $15,000. There is a really nice car that wold be a really good value at that price available and easy to acquire. But stepping back, you can see that your spouse needs a couple medical procedures to restore quality of life, your fridge isn't keeping your food cold and you risk your health by eating stuff from inside and your roof is leaking in a couple spots. Should you still spend your last $15,000 on the car even if its a good value?

I wanted the Reds to make due with the car they have and spend the resources they've got on the medical procedure, a new fridge and fixing the roof.

So if $3 million maxes out the budget what exactly are we going to do with that whopping $3 million to significantly upgrade this team? You mentioned Scutaro and Bartlett earlier, which aren't any more of an upgrade than Ramon. If we acquire a guy through a trade we can work out the salaries by throwing in extra or slightly better prospects.

Who from the FA crop can we get for $3 million that is going to fill the lead-off spot or cleanup hole??

edabbs44
11-19-2010, 12:14 PM
The time has come to not worry about $3MM from a strict budgetary standpoint.

REDREAD
11-19-2010, 04:17 PM
Just for clairification, I think the argument against the Hernandez signing is not that he is equal to Corky, just not worth $2.5M more than Corky.

After having lived through Bako and other assorted dreck, I would say that RH is clearly worth 2.5 million more.
Contending clubs invest in depth. It's a long season, and you don't want your primary backup at catcher to be below replacement level or be a rookie with only 1/2 year at AAA.

I know that OC wasn't exactly the most popular guy on this board, but we are already losing some offense by replacing him with Janish. LF is unsettled.
Rolen has health concerns. Why not lock up some insurance at catcher for 2.5 million? Now is not the time to be pinching pennies.

TRF
11-19-2010, 04:35 PM
I know that OC wasn't exactly the most popular guy on this board, but we are already losing some offense by replacing him with Janish.

I'm agreeing with everyone that think signing RH is a good idea, and while it probably needs its own thread (SS Offense Janish vs. Cabrera vs. what's available) this statement was so wrong i had to read it twice.

westofyou
11-19-2010, 04:43 PM
I'm agreeing with everyone that think signing RH is a good idea, and while it probably needs its own thread (SS Offense Janish vs. Cabrera vs. what's available) this statement was so wrong i had to read it twice.


AB H HR RBI Avg OPS
Pitcher with ERA <= 3.50 66 11 2 4 0.167 0.570
Pitcher with ERA 3.51 to 4.25 43 12 1 4 0.279 0.750
Pitcher with ERA 4.26 to 5.25 64 18 1 10 0.281 0.722
Pitcher with ERA over 5.25 27 11 1 7 0.407 1.059


AB H HR RBI Avg OPS
Pitcher with ERA <= 3.50 173 44 2 12 0.254 0.636
Pitcher with ERA 3.51 to 4.25 133 36 0 9 0.271 0.652
Pitcher with ERA 4.26 to 5.25 117 34 1 13 0.291 0.749
Pitcher with ERA over 5.25 71 16 1 8 0.225 0.565

RedsManRick
11-19-2010, 05:12 PM
Re: Janish v Cabrera, here are Bill James' projections for those guys.
Janish: .232/.308/.335
OCab: .268/.316/.364

I'm more bullish on Janish than James, as last year was the first year Janish had a reasonable BABIP (.283) and his batting line from 2010 (.260/.338/.385) looks like what you'd expect if you took James' line (.262 BABIP) and threw in a handful of extra singles.

Those splits by pitcher quality don't really tell me much. The sample sizes aren't predictive and Janish beating up on bad pitching compared to good pitching doesn't suggest that he got lucky against bad pitchers any more than the it suggests Cabrera got lucky against good pitchers in light of his struggles against bad ones. You'll always be able to find data you can craft a narrative around if you split it fine enough. Doesn't make the narrative true -- smacks more of confirmation bias to me.

If I were given even odds on the higher OPS between the two, I'd put my money on Janish. But there certainly isn't much justification for expecting a significant gap if offensive production between the two guys in any event.

westofyou
11-19-2010, 05:56 PM
Those splits by pitcher quality don't really tell me much. The sample sizes aren't predictive and Janish beating up on bad pitching compared to good pitching doesn't suggest that he got lucky against bad pitchers any more than the it suggests Cabrera got lucky against good pitchers in light of his struggles against bad ones. You'll always be able to find data you can craft a narrative around if you split it fine enough. Doesn't make the narrative true -- smacks more of confirmation bias to me.


Is it really bias if no thoughts were stated with the stats?

I have to say no.

So much for assumptions.

lollipopcurve
11-19-2010, 06:17 PM
Doesn't make the narrative true -- smacks more of confirmation bias to me.

Oh, the jargon.

kaldaniels
11-19-2010, 06:24 PM
Re: Janish v Cabrera, here are Bill James' projections for those guys.
Janish: .232/.308/.335
OCab: .268/.316/.364

I'm more bullish on Janish than James, as last year was the first year Janish had a reasonable BABIP (.283) and his batting line from 2010 (.260/.338/.385) looks like what you'd expect if you took James' line (.262 BABIP) and threw in a handful of extra singles.

Those splits by pitcher quality don't really tell me much. The sample sizes aren't predictive and Janish beating up on bad pitching compared to good pitching doesn't suggest that he got lucky against bad pitchers any more than the it suggests Cabrera got lucky against good pitchers in light of his struggles against bad ones. You'll always be able to find data you can craft a narrative around if you split it fine enough. Doesn't make the narrative true -- smacks more of confirmation bias to me.

If I were given even odds on the higher OPS between the two, I'd put my money on Janish. But there certainly isn't much justification for expecting a significant gap if offensive production between the two guys in any event.

It could go either way in 2011....who knows if OCab or Janish will have a better OPS. Really...who knows. I'd say it is about a 50/50 proposition myself. At most I'd say it is a 60/40 propostion either way. Both sides have a good argument/facts to stand on.

The thing is Rick, just because someone disagrees with you, that doesn't make it confirmation bias. That comment could have been made to you as well. I'm not saying I agree or disagree...but sometimes both sides make a good case...and then it is up to the flip of the coin, i.e., the actual 2011 season.

mdccclxix
11-19-2010, 07:01 PM
I know what I'll miss from Ocab, his good at bats. It has nothing to do with stats, but watching him fight pitches, stay in the count, make contact, etc was an upgrade from Agon and Janish. Now, I also saw an improvement from Janish. I think he's ready to battle, for sure. And his power is pretty neat right now as well. The problem is, you don't have much protection if he goes in a huge slump as the starter. I guess Cairo could help. Maybe it's the source of the Scutaro rumors. Anyway, Ocab was not chopped liver in my eyes. Much of his decline was around his injuries last year. When healthy he was a .280 hitter. Injuries are why I wouldn't bring him back unless it's for less and to split time with Janish.

GAC
11-20-2010, 05:50 AM
GAC, I respect your opinion and I understand that Hanigan and Hernandez were very productive in 2010. What worries me is Ramon is 35 years old with a bad knee, the catchers position can be fatal for old guys with bad knees. (believe me I know).....I'd trust Hanigann as the number one catcher with any cheaper no hit good glove defensive guy as his back up.

I personally don't think either one of these guys, from an endurance level, could handle a a vast majority of the starts as the #1 catcher and not see their production slide drastically as the year wore on. I have no problem, and agree, that Hanigan should get the majority of the starts in the platoon situation with Ramon; but I like the platoon situation because it does keep both "fresh", and, as you indicated, keeps too much undue pressure on RH's knee. He played with that knee last year and did well. And if they handle the situation right again this year, we could see the same or comparable, while giving Mesoraco another season.

To me, that's what it's all about - buying time with that one year contract.

Griffey012
11-20-2010, 04:35 PM
I personally don't think either one of these guys, from an endurance level, could handle a a vast majority of the starts as the #1 catcher and not see their production slide drastically as the year wore on. I have no problem, and agree, that Hanigan should get the majority of the starts in the platoon situation with Ramon; but I like the platoon situation because it does keep both "fresh", and, as you indicated, keeps too much undue pressure on RH's knee. He played with that knee last year and did well. And if they handle the situation right again this year, we could see the same or comparable, while giving Mesoraco another season.

To me, that's what it's all about - buying time with that one year contract.

Good Post, I couldn't have said it any better.