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RedLegSuperStar
11-16-2010, 08:58 AM
Thought it would convenient to have a thread of the on goings of the GM Meetings that start today in Orlando.

Redsfan320
11-16-2010, 09:16 AM
I'll actually be at Disney World Thursday and Friday (15-hour drive tomorrow). Huh.

320

TRF
11-16-2010, 12:32 PM
I'll actually be at Disney World Thursday and Friday (15-hour drive tomorrow). Huh.

320

Shouldn't you be in school? :cool:

Redsfan320
11-16-2010, 12:37 PM
Shouldn't you be in school?

Home-schooled... you have no idea how often I get that. :laugh:

We'll only be in WDW for 2 days... then 3 weeks on the beach. :cool:

320

Johnny Footstool
11-16-2010, 12:54 PM
According to rotoworld.com, the D-Backs are listening to offers for Justin Upton.

TRF
11-16-2010, 01:09 PM
Home-schooled... you have no idea how often I get that. :laugh:

We'll only be in WDW for 2 days... then 3 weeks on the beach. :cool:

320

I was schooled on the streets. TRF - Thug Life 4 Ever. Lower Price Hill Survivor.

RedLegSuperStar
11-16-2010, 01:15 PM
According to rotoworld.com, the D-Backs are listening to offers for Justin Upton.

Wow! You'd think you'd want to build a team around your young talent.. Reds have SP & Infield Depth.

Travis Wood, Todd Frazier, and Yonder Alonzo?

Johnny Footstool
11-16-2010, 01:27 PM
Wow! You'd think you'd want to build a team around your young talent.. Reds have SP & Infield Depth.

Travis Wood, Todd Frazier, and Yonder Alonzo?

They would probably insist on Stubbs, in addition to that package.

I'd still do that deal.

westofyou
11-16-2010, 01:29 PM
Home-schooled... you have no idea how often I get that. :laugh:

We'll only be in WDW for 2 days... then 3 weeks on the beach. :cool:

320

I loved HS. LOVED IT... couldn't wait to not hang out at my house, unless of course my folks were out of town, that's when I got my "Home schooling" done.

TheNext44
11-16-2010, 01:49 PM
They would probably insist on Stubbs, in addition to that package.

I'd still do that deal.

Going forward, I don't see that big of a difference between Stubbs and Upton. There's a difference, just not a Wood, Frazier and Alonso difference, especially when you factor in contracts and length of team control.

RANDY IN INDY
11-16-2010, 02:11 PM
Agree.

Johnny Footstool
11-16-2010, 05:25 PM
Going forward, I don't see that big of a difference between Stubbs and Upton. There's a difference, just not a Wood, Frazier and Alonso difference, especially when you factor in contracts and length of team control.

I wouldn't do the deal without getting a crack at offering Upton an LTC first. But Upton is distinctly better now, and has an off-the-charts, Griffey-esque upside.

Upton is nearly three years younger than Stubbs, and has put up better numbers than Stubbs at a younger age at all levels of play.

Stubbs had a .765 OPS in the minors, compared to Upton's .854 OPS.

RedsManRick
11-16-2010, 05:31 PM
I wouldn't do the deal without getting a crack at offering Upton an LTC first. But Upton is distinctly better now, and has an off-the-charts, Griffey-esque upside.

Upton is nearly three years younger than Stubbs, and has put up better numbers than Stubbs at a younger age at all levels of play.

Stubbs had a .765 OPS in the minors, compared to Upton's .854 OPS.

Per Cot's

Justin Upton
6 years/$51.25M (2010-15)
signed extension with Arizona 3/3/10
$1.25M signing bonus
10:$0.5M, 11:$4.25M, 12:$6.75M, 13:$9.75M, 14:$14.25M, 15:$14.5M

RedsManRick
11-16-2010, 05:33 PM
Per Jon Heyman on Twitter:


francisco cordero available. #reds may even chip in a few dollars

TheNext44
11-16-2010, 05:41 PM
Per Jon Heyman on Twitter:

"May"? More like "will absolutely have to."

Benihana
11-16-2010, 05:42 PM
"May"? More like "will absolutely have to."

Not if we take Carlos Beltran back... :devil:

redsmetz
11-16-2010, 05:46 PM
Not sure if anyone has said this, but I expect the club to move some pitcher or another. There's just too many that could be starters. Certainly it allows us to continue to ease Chapman in as a starter down the line and Leake or Wood could start in AAA, but that still leaves Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey plus the remaining and that's not even looking at LeCure (probably destined for the pen) or Maloney (who I think is a prime candidate for being traded, albeit as part of a package or for other minor leaguers.

Johnny Footstool
11-16-2010, 06:11 PM
Per Cot's

Justin Upton
6 years/$51.25M (2010-15)
signed extension with Arizona 3/3/10
$1.25M signing bonus
10:$0.5M, 11:$4.25M, 12:$6.75M, 13:$9.75M, 14:$14.25M, 15:$14.5M

All the better.

Benihana
11-16-2010, 06:25 PM
All the better.

I would LOVE to have an OF of Upton-Stubbs-Bruce. LOVE to. That might just be the highest upside OF of all time, or at least since Kearns-Griffey-Dunn :tongue: I'm a little curious/disappointed that teams other than the Yankees/Red Sox are not all over this, if there is any truth to the rumors out there.

IMO, an Upton acquisition would instantly confirm the Reds as favorites to repeat as Central champs (if they're not already). I would happily give Arizona their pick of Volquez, Bailey, Leake and Wood, and I'd throw in some more on top of that.

My only concern would be how his contract fits into the Reds financial plans in 2013-15 with Votto, Bruce, and the rest of the pitchers poised for huge raises and possible LTCs/FA.

Johnny Footstool
11-16-2010, 10:42 PM
My only concern would be how his contract fits into the Reds financial plans in 2013-15 with Votto, Bruce, and the rest of the pitchers poised for huge raises and possible LTCs/FA.

He'd be worth it.

edabbs44
11-16-2010, 10:50 PM
Has to make you wonder why they would lock Upton up and then look to deal him soon after.

nemesis
11-17-2010, 12:44 AM
Has to make you wonder why they would lock Upton up and then look to deal him soon after.

They just lack in so many areas, it takes moving a piece like Upton to get all the pieces back. Pitching is so much more valuable than hitting and they have some great young starting pitching. Honestly I'd move Reynolds or Drew first but either is unlikely to get big returns like Upton.

Upton gets you Leake and Alonso to start, Reynolds gets you Maloney and Sappelt.

blumj
11-17-2010, 12:52 AM
Also, it's not the same "they" anymore, right? Josh Byrnes locked him up, and Towers is supposedly auctioning him off, although I doubt he gets traded unless they get an offer they really can't refuse.

Ron Madden
11-17-2010, 03:45 AM
Not sure if anyone has said this, but I expect the club to move some pitcher or another. There's just too many that could be starters. Certainly it allows us to continue to ease Chapman in as a starter down the line and Leake or Wood could start in AAA, but that still leaves Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey plus the remaining and that's not even looking at LeCure (probably destined for the pen) or Maloney (who I think is a prime candidate for being traded, albeit as part of a package or for other minor leaguers.

I understand that starting pitching is considered one of the Reds strong suites but I'm still a bit skeptical about trading any of them away.

How many of our young starters can we really count on? I subscribe to the belief that you can never have enough pitching. I guess what I'm trying to say is I'd feel more comfortable holding on to all of these guys for at least one more season for depth, just in case of injury to someone we are counting on or the chance of an unexpected break out season by one of them.

Redsfan320
11-17-2010, 03:51 AM
I'll actually be at Disney World Thursday and Friday (15-hour drive tomorrow). Huh.

Quarter after 3 in the morning is way too early for any teenager to ever be up... ugh.

Off to Orlando though!

320

Benihana
11-17-2010, 10:19 AM
They just lack in so many areas, it takes moving a piece like Upton to get all the pieces back. Pitching is so much more valuable than hitting and they have some great young starting pitching. Honestly I'd move Reynolds or Drew first but either is unlikely to get big returns like Upton.

Upton gets you Leake and Alonso to start, Reynolds gets you Maloney and Sappelt.

Apparently they think that Drew is more indispensable than Upton.

I would do Alonso and Leake for Upton in a second. In a second!

Johnny Footstool
11-17-2010, 12:51 PM
I understand that starting pitching is considered one of the Reds strong suites but I'm still a bit skeptical about trading any of them away.

How many of our young starters can we really count on? I subscribe to the belief that you can never have enough pitching. I guess what I'm trying to say is I'd feel more comfortable holding on to all of these guys for at least one more season for depth, just in case of injury to someone we are counting on or the chance of an unexpected break out season by one of them.

For an elite talent signed to a reasonable deal for the next 4 years, I'd part with any pitcher not named Cueto or Chapman.

Granted, I doubt this deal will ever happen, and if it does, it will probably involve a team with more financial flexibility than the Reds. But Upton looks like something very special.

Scrap Irony
11-17-2010, 01:02 PM
I guess what I'm trying to say is I'd feel more comfortable holding on to all of these guys for at least one more season for depth, just in case of injury to someone we are counting on or the chance of an unexpected break out season by one of them.

Which means you can't really improve your major league club all that much for 2011, as the prospects currently in the Red pipeline aren't headline material (aside from Chapman, who you don't want to part with).

My opinion is that anyone is available and extra parts are just that. If one of them discovers TOR material after leaving Cincinnati, it won't be the first bad trade made in Red history and won't be the last.

As long as the Reds find a legitimate bat among holes at SS and LF and improve the major league club, I don't care who they deal.

Ron Madden
11-18-2010, 07:48 AM
For an elite talent signed to a reasonable deal for the next 4 years, I'd part with any pitcher not named Cueto or Chapman.Granted, I doubt this deal will ever happen, and if it does, it will probably involve a team with more financial flexibility than the Reds. But Upton looks like something very special.

I agree and I'd trade anybody for the right return.

The Reds pitching staff had very good season in 2010 but I still see Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto and 5 question marks in line for the 2011 starting rotation. Who knows how many of those 5 if any will pan out?

All I'm sayin' is if we trade 3 of those 5 pitchers in question we darn sure better make the right decision on which 3 to trade.

bucksfan2
11-18-2010, 08:44 AM
For an elite talent signed to a reasonable deal for the next 4 years, I'd part with any pitcher not named Cueto or Chapman.

Granted, I doubt this deal will ever happen, and if it does, it will probably involve a team with more financial flexibility than the Reds. But Upton looks like something very special.

Johnny Cueto
BB/9 3.1
K/9 7.3
WHIP 1.348
ERA+ 98

Travis Wood
BB/9 2.3
K/9 7.5
WHIP 1.081
ERA+ 114

Career numbers for both. Johnny looked like he improved numbers wise last season. But I am still surprised that most people want to hold onto Cueto at all costs and wouldn't mind losing Wood. When in reality Wood was better across the board than Cueto. He doesn't have a smallish frame that Cueto has. And I love Wood's mound presence. He's got Moxie. You can't teach that.

Cedric
11-18-2010, 09:04 AM
Johnny Cueto
BB/9 3.1
K/9 7.3
WHIP 1.348
ERA+ 98

Travis Wood
BB/9 2.3
K/9 7.5
WHIP 1.081
ERA+ 114

Career numbers for both. Johnny looked like he improved numbers wise last season. But I am still surprised that most people want to hold onto Cueto at all costs and wouldn't mind losing Wood. When in reality Wood was better across the board than Cueto. He doesn't have a smallish frame that Cueto has. And I love Wood's mound presence. He's got Moxie. You can't teach that.

I certainly agree. Wood has comparable stuff and locates his pitches better. Cueto has no movement on his pitches and average secondary stuff. With his declining k/9 rate, arbitration status, and size I would be looking to move him right now.

lollipopcurve
11-18-2010, 09:20 AM
Cueto has no movement on his pitches and average secondary stuff.

Strongly disagree. Cueto's fastball moves quite a bit, and his slider and change are both plus pitches when he's on.

Wood's secondary stuff is questionable at this point. He's mostly a fastball/cutter guy right now. His changeup was highly touted, but while it looks OK, it hasn't been as good as advertised (he leaves it up in the zone too much). The curve, at least in my opinion, has been better than advertised, but he rarely throws it.

Both these guys are strong assets. The Reds could get back good value for either, but Cueto is more established and took a step forward last year in terms of consistency and durability.

Jpup
11-18-2010, 10:07 AM
I certainly agree. Wood has comparable stuff and locates his pitches better. Cueto has no movement on his pitches and average secondary stuff. With his declining k/9 rate, arbitration status, and size I would be looking to move him right now.

Wood's "stuff" isn't the same class as Cueto's. He has more deception but stuff isn't comparable between the two.

Cedric
11-18-2010, 10:14 AM
Wood's "stuff" isn't the same class as Cueto's. He has more deception but stuff isn't comparable between the two.

Wood has very good "stuff". And he can locate his primary and secondary pitches better than most.
Cueto has been labeled a certain way because he throws 96. His peripheral metrics aren't great and they aren't trending towards good either. At this point the hype of his "stuff" is just that, hype.

He is small and going to cost a ton of money soon. Sell him at his highest value and let someone else take the risk his peripherals aren't a bad sign, IMO.

OnBaseMachine
11-18-2010, 10:49 AM
Cueto's stuff is above average, IMO. His slider and changeup are both above average pitches most of the time. His SwStr% was 9.1 this season which is above average. Justin Verlander (9.3), Ubaldo Jimenez (9.1), Johan Santana (9.2), and Ricky Romero (9.0) were all in that area with Cueto. He also ranked ahead of guys like Chris Carpenter, Yovani Gallardo, Tommy Hanson, Cliff Lee, and Zack Greinke.

Cedric
11-18-2010, 10:50 AM
Cueto's stuff is above average, IMO. His slider and changeup are both above average pitches most of the time. His SwStr% was 9.1 this season which is above average. Justin Verlander (9.3), Ubaldo Jimenez (9.1), Johan Santana (9.2), and Ricky Romero (9.0) were all in that area with Cueto. He also ranked ahead of guys like Chris Carpenter, Yovani Gallardo, Tommy Hanson, Cliff Lee, and Zack Greinke.

According to fangraphs his slider and change up have a swing/miss rate way below league average. His fastball is his money pitch and with his size and how he elevates pitches that's scary. Cueto also has a very high rate of stranding base runners and a plummeting home run per fly ball rate. If the home run rate comes back to earth he is in for a world of hurt.

I'm certainly not going to cry if he's in the rotation next year. I'm just discussing why I think the Reds should flip him. I think some team will pay out the nose for someone with his perceived stuff and that playoff experience.
Where are you getting those numbers on his secondary pitches? Fangraphs has him at below average swstr with his slider and changeup.

westofyou
11-18-2010, 10:53 AM
If I'm flipping anyone I'm flipping the short RH who is at peak value.

The numbers don't lie, the list of successful height challenged RH's who started is like the menu at Five Guys Burgers...short.

OnBaseMachine
11-18-2010, 10:54 AM
According to fangraphs his slider and change up have a swing/miss rate way below league average. His fastball is his money pitch and with his size and how he elevates pitches that's scary. Cueto also has a very high rate of stranding base runners and a plummeting home run per fly ball rate. If the home run rate comes back to earth he is in for a world of hurt.

I'm certainly not going to cry if he's in the rotation next year. I'm just discussing why I think the Reds should flip him. I think some team will pay out the nose for someone with his perceived stuff and that playoff experience.
Where are you getting those numbers on his secondary pitches? Fangraphs has him at below average swstr with his slider and changeup.

You are blowing his declining peripherals out of proportion. His K/9 dropped ever so slightly in 2010 but his walk rate improved from 3.20 to 2.71 and his HR/9 decreased from 1.26 to 0.92. If anything, his peripherals improved this season. SwStr% is listed on Fangraphs. Cueto had an above average SwStr% this season.

bucksfan2
11-18-2010, 11:00 AM
Cueto's stuff is above average, IMO. His slider and changeup are both above average pitches most of the time. His SwStr% was 9.1 this season which is above average. Justin Verlander (9.3), Ubaldo Jimenez (9.1), Johan Santana (9.2), and Ricky Romero (9.0) were all in that area with Cueto. He also ranked ahead of guys like Chris Carpenter, Yovani Gallardo, Tommy Hanson, Cliff Lee, and Zack Greinke.

Analysis like this is the reasons teams decide to invest in the Fausto Camona's of the world and let the Cliff Lee's of the world walk.

This is not a knock on Cueto because he is a good pitcher but if I were picking a pitcher to invest in long term, build a team around, Cueto wouldn't be the guy in Cincy. IMO he is a power pitcher with a smallish frame. Nothing says he can't continue to do this long term, but the odds aren't in his favor. Lets also consider that Johnny from time to time lets the game and situation get out of hand. I look back at the brawl as well as why the Reds felt the need to start someone else in game 1.

Leake and Wood have never let the moment get bigger than them. They have stayed even keel on the mound no matter what the situation was. They may not have the "stuff" that Johnny possesses, but I like them as pitchers long term better than Cueto.

Crosley68
11-18-2010, 11:04 AM
If I'm flipping anyone I'm flipping the short RH who is at peak value.

The numbers don't lie, the list of successful height challenged RH's who started is like the menu at Five Guys Burgers...short.

Ditto. For me it is combination of history as WOY has said and desire to keep the lefty. Over the years it seems that some clubs have much difficulty with even average lefties. Wood will be at least that IMO.

OnBaseMachine
11-18-2010, 11:05 AM
Analysis like this is the reasons teams decide to invest in the Fausto Camona's of the world and let the Cliff Lee's of the world walk.

How so? Cliff Lee's peripherals and SwStr% blow Carmona's out of the water. Not sure where that came from but I don't think there's anyone out there who would take Carmona over Lee.



This is not a knock on Cueto because he is a good pitcher but if I were picking a pitcher to invest in long term, build a team around, Cueto wouldn't be the guy in Cincy. IMO he is a power pitcher with a smallish frame. Nothing says he can't continue to do this long term, but the odds aren't in his favor. Lets also consider that Johnny from time to time lets the game and situation get out of hand. I look back at the brawl as well as why the Reds felt the need to start someone else in game 1.


Cueto didn't let the pressure or situation get to him in the playoffs. He pitched a very good game in his lone playoff start. He handled his emotions on the mound a lot better this season, IMO. I wouldn't trade Cueto unless I was absolutely blown away with an offer. I wouldn't trade Travis Wood either. I think both he and Cueto are underrated around here.