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View Full Version : If I'm Walt at The Meetings



Benihana
11-16-2010, 03:41 PM
My preferences all revolve around getting one of the reportedly available studs for LF. Provided that happens, I am fine going with Janish and Cozart at SS.

1. Trade 1 of Volquez/Bailey/Leake/Wood and any 2 OFs in the organization other than Bruce, Stubbs, and Y-Rod to the Diamondbacks for Justin Upton.

Arizona is reportedly listening to offers on Upton. They need to retool their organization. They would need an infusion of talent, and no one has more ML-ready high upside arms than the Reds. Would be the inverse of the Hamilton-Volquez or Garza-Young trades. Would give the Reds the best defensive and offensive OF in the NL. The $50MM owed to Upton over the next five years might be an issue given the Reds current demographics.

2. Trade Yonder Alonso, Chris Heisey and Juan Francisco to the Dodgers for Matt Kemp.

Dodgers have reportedly soured on Kemp's attitude and are looking to replace Loney at 1B. Perfect fit for Alonso. Like Upton, Kemp immediately gives the Reds best defensive, and possibly offensive, OF in the NL. Would likely walk after 2011.

3. Trade Juan Francisco and Chris Valaika to the Marlins for Dan Uggla.

Marlins are actively shopping Uggla after he rejected their extension offer. He is from TN/KY and might like to come home. Only question would be if he is comfortable moving to LF. Would fit into the cleanup slot nicely between Votto and Bruce. Doubtful the Reds would want to spend $12MM per year on him after 2011.

4. Trade Francisco Cordero, Chris Valaika and Chris Heisey or Juan Francisco to the Mets for Carlos Beltran.

Mets are open to moving him, and he is open to being moved (although he has a no-trade) both from the Mets and out of CF. Reports had Mets discussing swap of bad contracts with Cubs/Zambrano. With K-Rod's demise, Mets could use a closer and could get younger in the OF. Would likely walk in the offseason.

These moves would be mutually exclusive, as Upton, Kemp, Uggla or Beltran would immediately become the Reds LF. Kemp (26), Uggla (29), and Beltran (33) are all signed through 2011. Upton (23) is signed and owed approximately $50MM through 2015. If the Reds acquired any of these three, they would be fine to go into the year with a tandem of Janish and Cozart at SS. In fact, they would still be (in my opinion) the favorites to repeat as NL Central champs.

Wildcard Move

5. Reds trade Mike Leake, Travis Wood, and Chris Heisey for Zach Greinke.

Royals get two young studs that will fit better from a timeframe perspective with their young prospects Hosmer, Moustakas, and Myers. Plus they get an OF to replace David DeJesus. Reds get a young, affordable ace to headline their rotation: Greinke, Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey/Chapman

Thoughts?

RedsManRick
11-16-2010, 03:50 PM
I love the line of thinking. I would love Walt to make a move for a LF with big-time upside. Upton is basically a RH Bruce and would be my primary target if he's truly available. Personally, I'd like to swap in Volquez as a trading chip, as I think he's got more value in a trade than as a pitcher for us (I'm notably bearish on him, I know). A package built around Volquez and Alonso gets us most of the way there in just about any trade.

redsmetz
11-16-2010, 03:51 PM
I assume you're talking about the Winter Meetings which occur next month and not the GM meetings which begin today. These meetings rarely bring about trades. Presumably groundwork is laid for potential deals next month.

Redsfan320
11-16-2010, 03:51 PM
3. Trade Juan Francisco and Chris Valaika to the Marlins for Dan Uggla.

This would be my favorite although Uggla in LF is a huge ?. It's not just whether he'd be comfortable there, but whether we would be comfortable with him there.


5. Reds trade Mike Leake, Travis Wood, and Chris Heisey for Zach Greinke.

I don't like Greinke enough to give up Leake and Wood.

320

Will M
11-16-2010, 03:58 PM
I assume you're talking about the Winter Meetings which occur next month and not the GM meetings which begin today. These meetings rarely bring about trades. Presumably groundwork is laid for potential deals next month.

Walt can get Upton at the GM meetings, Reyes at the winter meetings & Greinke on Christmas Eve. The guy is the GM of the year!

dfs
11-16-2010, 03:58 PM
I'm not in favor of taking a team that wins enough to get you to the playoffs and breaking it up in order to create a constellation of stars.

Just me.

One or two of those deals would be PLENTY. All of them would doom the team long term.

bucksfan2
11-16-2010, 04:03 PM
2. Trade Yonder Alonso, Chris Heisey and Juan Francisco to the Dodgers for Matt Kemp.

Dodgers have reportedly soured on Kemp's attitude and are looking to replace Loney at 1B. Perfect fit for Alonso. Like Upton, Kemp immediately gives the Reds best defensive, and possibly offensive, OF in the NL. Would likely walk after 2011.

IMO that would be a great deal for the Reds. Heisey isn't cracking the starting OF, Alonso isn't cracking the starting lineup at 1b, and Francisco looks like he may never get it together.

camisadelgolf
11-16-2010, 04:05 PM
1. Trade 1 of Volquez/Bailey/Leake/Wood and any 2 OFs in the organization other than Bruce, Stubbs, and Y-Rod to the Diamondbacks for Justin Upton.
Volquez, Sappelt, & Frazier might be enough to make that happen. It's interesting, and I'd really have to consider it.


2. Trade Yonder Alonso, Chris Heisey and Juan Francisco to the Dodgers for Matt Kemp.
Totally over-paying imho. Kemp is getting expensive, and I really don't see him as much more of an upgrade over Heisey anyway.


3. Trade Juan Francisco and Chris Valaika to the Marlins for Dan Uggla.
It would take a lot more than that to get him.


4. Trade Francisco Cordero, Chris Valaika and Chris Heisey or Juan Francisco to the Mets for Carlos Beltran.
It makes sense to go after Beltrain, but I could see the Reds brass worried about not having an established closer. Masset hasn't done well as a closer in a limited sample, and you have to try Chapman as a starter at some point.



5. Reds trade Mike Leake, Travis Wood, and Chris Heisey for Zach Greinke.
I think it would take more than that, and I really don't see it as affordable for the Reds. Travis Wood and Mike Leake could be a good start, but I think the Royals would want a blue chip prospect on top of those two.

So why wouldn't you just put this thread in the 'trade ideas' thread I started? :lol:

lollipopcurve
11-16-2010, 04:05 PM
You have to think $$$ too. They're not going to take on a 10+ million contract without shedding money somewhere.

Here's a couple ways to get Uggla that might work.

Cueto or Volquez (arb-eligible guys) plus Gomes -- stick Uggla in left (Reds might get a prospect back in this one)

Phillips straight up for Uggla -- stick Uggla at 2B

Both deals predicated on Jocketty being able to work out a long-term deal with Uggla. Likely, IMO.

Re: the latter deal, I think I like Uggla on a long-term deal better than Phillips, given that DU is likely able to move to 3B, LF or 1B down the line, depending on team needs, while continuing to provide the pop required of players in those positions. In fact, it's likely you would want to move him, given his subpar defense.

camisadelgolf
11-16-2010, 04:12 PM
You have to think $$$ too. They're not going to take on a 10+ million contract without shedding money somewhere.

Here's a couple ways to get Uggla that might work.

Cueto or Volquez plus Gomes -- stick Uggla in left (might get a prospect back in this deal)

Phillips straight up for Uggla, stick Uggla at 2B (Walt works out a long-term deal with Uggla)

Re: the latter, I think I like Uggla on a long-term deal better than Phillips, given that DU is likely able to move to 3B, LF or 1B down the line, depending on team needs, while continuing to provide the pop required of players in those positions. In fact, it's likely you would want to move him, given his subpar defense.
It's totally appropriate to bring up money, but one other thing to keep in mind is team chemistry. What would it say to the team to trade Phillips for Uggla?
Team: "Hey, Walt. Why did you make us switch second basemen? Brandon was great on the field, and we like him."
Walt: "Listen, Phillips is good, but we just wanted someone else."
Team: "But . . . why?"
Walt: "Well, we just wanted another middle-of-the-lineup hitter."
Team: "I thought you said we needed a top-of-the-order hitter. :confused: Brandon was excellent as the #2 hitter. We don't understand. Does this mean you're going to trade us, too?"
Walt: "Um, maybe. It's a business, though, and you should know that."
Team: "In that case, look for us to take our business elsewhere once our contracts are done."

lollipopcurve
11-16-2010, 04:15 PM
It's totally appropriate to bring up money, but one other thing to keep in mind is team chemistry. What would it say to the team to trade Phillips for Uggla?
Team: "Hey, Walt. Why did you make us switch second basemen? Brandon was great on the field, and we like him."
Walt: "Listen, Phillips is good, but we just wanted someone else."
Team: "But . . . why?"
Walt: "Well, we just wanted another middle-of-the-lineup hitter."
Team: "I thought you said we needed a top-of-the-order hitter. Brandon was excellent as the #2 hitter. We don't understand. Does this mean you're going to trade us, too?"
Walt: "Um, maybe. It's a business, though, and you should know that."
Team: "In that case, look for us to take our business elsewhere once our contracts are done."

First of all, the team is not monolithic. Second, I'm pretty darn sure Uggla would fit into the Reds clubhouse really well.

paulrichjr
11-16-2010, 04:41 PM
Put me down for not wanting to trade Wood. Something makes me think this guy is going to be really really good.

MikeS21
11-16-2010, 05:00 PM
I think you are over-valuing folks like Alonso, Heisey, Fransisco, and Valakia. I just don't think other teams view any of those guys as more than spare parts. And Mike Leake has to prove he can go through the league more than once. Leake was awesome until he started facing teams the second or third time.

Benihana
11-16-2010, 05:24 PM
I'm not in favor of taking a team that wins enough to get you to the playoffs and breaking it up in order to create a constellation of stars.

Just me.

One or two of those deals would be PLENTY. All of them would doom the team long term.

Um, you'll note that I said the deals are all mutually exclusive. They are four (five including the wildcard) different suggestions to solve the same problem. You really wouldn't be breaking up the core of the team at all, nor would you be creating a constellation of stars.


Volquez, Sappelt, & Frazier might be enough to make that happen. It's interesting, and I'd really have to consider it.


Totally over-paying imho. Kemp is getting expensive, and I really don't see him as much more of an upgrade over Heisey anyway.

I like Kemp's upside significantly better than Heisey, and he makes $7MM this year before hitting free agency. That's not that expensive.



It would take a lot more than that to get him.

Maybe, maybe not. Guy is an expensive vet in a walk year on a team that is going nowhere. They won't give him away, but several reports have stated that they are really not asking that much. In full disclosure, some reports have stated the contrary, especially if they trade him within the division (Atlanta).



It makes sense to go after Beltrain, but I could see the Reds brass worried about not having an established closer. Masset hasn't done well as a closer in a limited sample, and you have to try Chapman as a starter at some point.

Agreed. If we're not willing to move Cordero, maybe we throw in an extra couple of prospects in exchange for the Mets footing a large part of Beltran's tab. They could certainly use help in pitching and the outfield, which just so happen to be two of our strengths. Take Cordero out of the deal and throw in guys like Frazier, Sappelt, and Maloney. Might just be enough if the Mets are serious about revamping.


I think it would take more than that, and I really don't see it as affordable for the Reds. Travis Wood and Mike Leake could be a good start, but I think the Royals would want a blue chip prospect on top of those two.


I don't think it would take more than that. Show me a trade that has happened recently that involved significantly more than two ML-ready arms that had the season and the upside that Leake and Wood demonstrated this year. Both guys aren't even 24 yet. Plus the Royals don't need prospects at 1B, 3B, or C which are arguably the Reds' organizational strengths.


You have to think $$$ too. They're not going to take on a 10+ million contract without shedding money somewhere.

Here's a couple ways to get Uggla that might work.

Cueto or Volquez (arb-eligible guys) plus Gomes -- stick Uggla in left (Reds might get a prospect back in this one)

Phillips straight up for Uggla -- stick Uggla at 2B

Both deals predicated on Jocketty being able to work out a long-term deal with Uggla. Likely, IMO.

Re: the latter deal, I think I like Uggla on a long-term deal better than Phillips, given that DU is likely able to move to 3B, LF or 1B down the line, depending on team needs, while continuing to provide the pop required of players in those positions. In fact, it's likely you would want to move him, given his subpar defense.

I would NOT trade Cueto, Volquez, or Phillips straight up for Uggla. I would also prefer to let him walk after 2011, and invest the $$ in Votto, Bruce, Cueto, and/or one of the other pitchers. Upton, Greinke, and possibly Kemp are the targets I would be interested in keeping around past 2011. Uggla and Beltran I'd let walk, unless they come back significantly cheaper.

Therefore, the Reds wouldn't be taking on $10MM+ in any of my proposed deals.

bucksfan2
11-16-2010, 05:32 PM
2. Trade Yonder Alonso, Chris Heisey and Juan Francisco to the Dodgers for Matt Kemp.


Totally over-paying imho. Kemp is getting expensive, and I really don't see him as much more of an upgrade over Heisey anyway.


Please explain.

The understand the whole "value" issue when trading prospects. But lets be honest Yonder has no place to play in Cincy. Heisey profiles as a 4th or 5th type OF (not buying into him) and Francisco is a wild card who has been given some playing time but yet to dis spell any of his fears. So in overall value to the Reds the wouldn't be overpaying. A player like Heisey should be easily replaceable through your minor league system. I would also imagine that trading those 3 players for Kemp would also include some cash coming back to the Reds. But in regards to the actual value coming back to the Reds I don't see this as overpaying at all.

lollipopcurve
11-16-2010, 05:33 PM
Therefore, the Reds wouldn't be taking on $10MM+ in any of my proposed deals.

Yes, they would. In your proposed deals for Greinke and Uggla they would.

*BaseClogger*
11-16-2010, 05:43 PM
Kemp is getting expensive, and I really don't see him as much more of an upgrade over Heisey anyway.

Kemp has a career .808 OPS in Dodger Stadium and is just now entering his age-prime seasons (he and Heisey were born in the same year after all). You really think they are comparable players?

I personally think Kemp could flourish into a star in GABP under Dusty...

LoganBuck
11-16-2010, 05:45 PM
Any trade of Cordero to the Mets likely has to result in Francisco Rodriguez coming back this way. Too much money going to the Mets, and they don't have room for two closers making top dollar.

camisadelgolf
11-16-2010, 06:07 PM
Kemp has a career .808 OPS in Dodger Stadium and is just now entering his age-prime seasons (he and Heisey were born in the same year after all). You really think they are comparable players?

I personally think Kemp could flourish into a star in GABP under Dusty...
You're right--I'm probably undervaluing him, but you can't deny that his value is at an all-time low.

RedsManRick
11-16-2010, 06:13 PM
Any trade of Cordero to the Mets likely has to result in Francisco Rodriguez coming back this way. Too much money going to the Mets, and they don't have room for two closers making top dollar.

Beltran is scheduled to make 18.5 million in 2011. The Reds would actually be taking on salary in that deal. As for how the money is distributed, the distribution of how your money is spent in a given year is basically irrelevant. What does it affect? Cordero's deal expires after next year, so that's really a non-issue.

OnBaseMachine
11-16-2010, 06:20 PM
According to multiple reports on twitter, the Braves are close to acquiring Dan Uggla for Omar Infante and Michael Dunn. Why in the world would the Marlins do that?

Mario-Rijo
11-16-2010, 06:21 PM
I keep looking at that string around my finger and try to remember it means not to screw the future of this thing up.

Mario-Rijo
11-16-2010, 06:22 PM
According to multiple reports on twitter, the Braves are close to acquiring Dan Uggla for Omar Infante and Michael Dunn. Why in the world would the Marlins do that?

$$$$

RedsManRick
11-16-2010, 06:28 PM
$$$$

Obviously money is why they're trading him; but given the interest, why take so little in return? Surely better packages of players were offered.

TheNext44
11-16-2010, 06:32 PM
Obviously money is why they're trading him; but given the interest, why take so little in return? Surely better packages of players were offered.

Ahhhh.... Infante's an All-Star... Hello? ;)

Benihana
11-16-2010, 06:39 PM
Yes, they would. In your proposed deals for Greinke and Uggla they would.

I think the Reds could absorb the $$ in those two cases, given that Greinke is signed reasonably and Uggla would be a FA after the season.

Benihana
11-16-2010, 06:41 PM
It makes sense to go after Beltrain, but I could see the Reds brass worried about not having an established closer. Masset hasn't done well as a closer in a limited sample, and you have to try Chapman as a starter at some point.


Francisco Cordero is available according to Jon Heyman.

francisco cordero available. #reds may even chip in a few dollars

http://twitter.com/SI_JonHeyman

There goes that theory.

Redhook
11-16-2010, 10:29 PM
You're right--I'm probably undervaluing him, but you can't deny that his value is at an all-time low.

That's the key. Buy low on Kemp. One year ago he'd cost twice as much.

*BaseClogger*
11-17-2010, 02:08 AM
You're right--I'm probably undervaluing him, but you can't deny that his value is at an all-time low.

What Redhook said: that's perfect!

corkedbat
11-17-2010, 02:33 AM
Francisco Cordero is available according to Jon Heyman.

francisco cordero available. #reds may even chip in a few dollars

http://twitter.com/SI_JonHeyman

There goes that theory.

If Walt can pull that off, he truly is a Wizard. Clearing the money is not even my main reson for wanting CoCo gone. I don't think his struggles the second half were a slump, bad mechanics or anything like that. I think he is simply not able to miss bats at anywhere near his old rate and he has little if any margin for error.

Simply put, I don't believe he has any business in a closer's role anymore. If he returns though, that's exactly where he'll be. That in itself might be enough to derail the Reds repeat prospects before Dusty can bring himself to remove Cordero from the role.

If Walt can pull a miracle and find a sucke - er - taker for Cordero, I'm fine with Masset in the closer's role, but I'm not sure they wouldn't be tempted to keep Chapman in the pen. I'd also think that either Bailey or Volquez would be candidates to be groomed for the closer's role if they aren't in the rotation. Arredondo may be another.

camisadelgolf
11-17-2010, 09:21 AM
Maybe, maybe not. Guy is an expensive vet in a walk year on a team that is going nowhere. They won't give him away, but several reports have stated that they are really not asking that much. In full disclosure, some reports have stated the contrary, especially if they trade him within the division (Atlanta).
I was way off. Good job, Beni.

Cedric
11-17-2010, 09:40 AM
Francisco Cordero is available according to Jon Heyman.

francisco cordero available. #reds may even chip in a few dollars

http://twitter.com/SI_JonHeyman

There goes that theory.

Go pull off a miracle Walt! Bring me back Beltran or Reyes in return.

Benihana
11-17-2010, 11:08 AM
According to one exec, Logan Morrison and Ricky Nolasco would get it done for Upton.

That means the price is likely Drew Stubbs and Homer Bailey. Would you do it? I would, especially with several CF options on the rise (Heisey, Sappelt, LaMarre, and of course eventually Yorman).

lollipopcurve
11-17-2010, 11:18 AM
According to one exec, Logan Morrison and Ricky Nolasco would get it done for Upton.

That means the price is likely Drew Stubbs and Homer Bailey. Would you do it? I would, especially with several CF options on the rise (Heisey, Sappelt, LaMarre, and of course eventually Yorman).

The article from Joel Sherman that contains this speculation also points out that the Red Sox are concerned about Upton's shoulder. Upton has had a labrum tear since 2006, and he aggravated it at the end of 2010. Buyer beware on that.

Benihana
11-17-2010, 11:23 AM
The article from Joel Sherman that contains this speculation also points out that the Red Sox are concerned about Upton's shoulder. Upton has had a labrum tear since 2006, and he aggravated it at the end of 2010. Buyer beware on that.

I feel better with the Reds doctor than the Bengals doctor (ahem, Antonio Bryant). Whether or not it was pure luck, the Reds scored big gambling on Scott Rolen's health when they traded for him. (Hopefully this continues through this year)

Without the health questions, a talent of Upton's caliber would never be available. It's like Josh Hamilton without the drug questions. If you think Drew Stubbs could be the second coming of Eric Davis...

buckeyenut
11-17-2010, 11:33 AM
According to one exec, Logan Morrison and Ricky Nolasco would get it done for Upton.

That means the price is likely Drew Stubbs and Homer Bailey. Would you do it? I would, especially with several CF options on the rise (Heisey, Sappelt, LaMarre, and of course eventually Yorman).
I wouldn't because I want that future outfield to be Upton, Stubbs and Bruce for next 10 years.

That said, I would do Leake, Alonso and Dorn or another B type prospect. I would think the Arizona fans would like Leake a lot more and he to me has lower downside risk than Bailey for ARI.

buckeyenut
11-17-2010, 11:42 AM
BTW, I would also be willing to do trades 2, 4, and 5. I'd rather ship out Bailey than Wood in 5, but would pull the trigger on that.

TRF
11-17-2010, 11:44 AM
regarding the idea of trading Volquez.

191.2 IP 201K's 1.26 WHIP 3.62 ERA. Those are Liriano's numbers 2 years removed from TJ surgery.

196 IP 206K's 1.33 WHIP 3.21 ERA. Those were Volquez's numbers the year before TJ surgery (2008).

No, I wouldn't trade him. Bailey? maybe. Cueto? nope. Leake? yep, I'd sell high on Leake.

REDREAD
11-17-2010, 11:49 AM
regarding the idea of trading Volquez.

No, I wouldn't trade him. Bailey? maybe. Cueto? nope. Leake? yep, I'd sell high on Leake.


I am not a huge fan of Volquez, but you have a solid point. He's probably at his all time low in trade value now. Unless some team is really enamored with his potential, now is probably not the time to trade him. On the other hand, there may be a GM out there starving for potential impact pitching that is willing to trade an impact bat for him.

It sure would be nice to package Homer or Leake for an impact bat. Don't know if Walt can get it done, but it would be nice.

The Beltran-Cordero trade idea is great too.

RedsManRick
11-17-2010, 12:06 PM
regarding the idea of trading Volquez.

191.2 IP 201K's 1.26 WHIP 3.62 ERA. Those are Liriano's numbers 2 years removed from TJ surgery.

196 IP 206K's 1.33 WHIP 3.21 ERA. Those were Volquez's numbers the year before TJ surgery (2008).

No, I wouldn't trade him. Bailey? maybe. Cueto? nope. Leake? yep, I'd sell high on Leake.

I'm not sure that's the right comparison. Let's look at both guys before surgery (and this omits Voqluez's 2009 first half, which wasn't pretty):


IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA FIP xFIP
Liriano 121 10.7 2.4 0.7 2.16 2.55 2.35
VOlquez 196 9.5 4.3 0.6 3.21 3.60 3.88

Sure, Liriano has recovered to be a very good pitcher. But he's not the guy he was before.

But even then, Volquez's injury is not my justification for wanting to trade him. I want to trade him because I think he's over-valued. He simply doesn't throw enough strikes.

Cedric
11-17-2010, 12:07 PM
I am not a huge fan of Volquez, but you have a solid point. He's probably at his all time low in trade value now. Unless some team is really enamored with his potential, now is probably not the time to trade him. On the other hand, there may be a GM out there starving for potential impact pitching that is willing to trade an impact bat for him.

It sure would be nice to package Homer or Leake for an impact bat. Don't know if Walt can get it done, but it would be nice.

The Beltran-Cordero trade idea is great too.

I wouldn't even think about selling Volquez at his current value. Cueto and Leake are the guys I would peg to ship out.

corkedbat
11-17-2010, 12:14 PM
I wouldn't even think about selling Volquez at his current value. Cueto and Leake are the guys I would peg to ship out.

No way do I deal Cueto. I thought Leake might have a little extra interest for the DBacks in a deal for Upton, Drew or Johnson since he went to school locally.

Benihana
11-17-2010, 12:55 PM
I wouldn't because I want that future outfield to be Upton, Stubbs and Bruce for next 10 years.

That said, I would do Leake, Alonso and Dorn or another B type prospect. I would think the Arizona fans would like Leake a lot more and he to me has lower downside risk than Bailey for ARI.

I would want the outfield to be Upton, Stubbs, and Bruce as well. But my guess would be that Arizona would insist on one of our top young OFs for Upton (Stubbs or Bruce), given that they are asking for Morrison from Florida. Bruce is obviously out of the question, but if Stubbs had to be in the deal, I would cringe and pull the trigger.

Leake and Alonso + fluff I would do in a heartbeat. Not sure if that could get it done, but it would be awesome.

blumj
11-17-2010, 01:17 PM
I'm not sure that's the right comparison. Let's look at both guys before surgery (and this omits Voqluez's 2009 first half, which wasn't pretty):


IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA FIP xFIP
Liriano 121 10.7 2.4 0.7 2.16 2.55 2.35
VOlquez 196 9.5 4.3 0.6 3.21 3.60 3.88

Sure, Liriano has recovered to be a very good pitcher. But he's not the guy he was before.

But even then, Volquez's injury is not my justification for wanting to trade him. I want to trade him because I think he's over-valued. He simply doesn't throw enough strikes.
The problem with that conclusion is that you never really know how long the need for TJ surgery was there before anyone realized it, and whether the longer history of control problems were the chicken or the egg.

TRF
11-17-2010, 01:46 PM
I'm not sure that's the right comparison. Let's look at both guys before surgery (and this omits Voqluez's 2009 first half, which wasn't pretty):


IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA FIP xFIP
Liriano 121 10.7 2.4 0.7 2.16 2.55 2.35
VOlquez 196 9.5 4.3 0.6 3.21 3.60 3.88

Sure, Liriano has recovered to be a very good pitcher. But he's not the guy he was before.

But even then, Volquez's injury is not my justification for wanting to trade him. I want to trade him because I think he's over-valued. He simply doesn't throw enough strikes.

Liriano isn't the guy he was before, yet. Or maybe he is and that 121 IP was too small a sample to really know what he really is/was.

It isn't that EV doesn't throw enough strikes, because he does. He also throws too many balls. I think it may be a fine line that i am walking, but IMO there is a distinction. There isn't a team in baseball that wouldn't take Volquez' 2008 numbers. That's an Ace or as near as you can get. EV pitched a total of 107 innings last year counting his minor league rehab starts. plus a lot of arm strength building exercises. I'd say he's at least going to be in the 175 IP range next year, with his performance tailing off near the end of the year. Sub 4.00 ERA and as many K's as IP, so around 175. 2012 would then see him bumped to over 200 IP. He might be pushed into the 190 range in 2011, as we aren't talking about a 23 year old pitcher here. He's inexpensive, has monster K numbers, and historically TJ patients are better the second season. IMO he shouldn't even enter the conversation for guys that should/could be moved.

RedsManRick
11-17-2010, 01:50 PM
The problem with that conclusion is that you never really know how long the need for TJ surgery was there before anyone realized it, and whether the longer history of control problems were the chicken or the egg.

Sure, it could be possible that undiagnosed/developing injury led to his poor control his and that his wildness this year could be a function of still recovering.

But is it logical to assume that as the baseline, most-likely scenario? That his true skill is something which he's never actually demonstrated nor is something which he's trending towards. I fully appreciate the possibility, but it seems unwise to me to make decisions based on that bet.

I would posit that rather than the injury leading to the control issues, a more likely scenario is that both are result of same underlying cause -- inconsistent mechanics. Unless something fundamentally changes about the way he pitches, I don't see a reason to expect different results.

RedsManRick
11-17-2010, 02:05 PM
Liriano isn't the guy he was before, yet. Or maybe he is and that 121 IP was too small a sample to really know what he really is/was.

It isn't that EV doesn't throw enough strikes, because he does. He also throws too many balls. I think it may be a fine line that i am walking, but IMO there is a distinction.

It's a distinction without a difference, if there's a distinction there at all. It's the proportion of each that counts. In either scenario, the issue is that he needs to throw fewer balls relative to strikes and he has not demonstrated an ability to do so.



There isn't a team in baseball that wouldn't take Volquez' 2008 numbers. That's an Ace or as near as you can get. EV pitched a total of 107 innings last year counting his minor league rehab starts. plus a lot of arm strength building exercises. I'd say he's at least going to be in the 175 IP range next year, with his performance tailing off near the end of the year. Sub 4.00 ERA and as many K's as IP, so around 175. 2012 would then see him bumped to over 200 IP. He might be pushed into the 190 range in 2011, as we aren't talking about a 23 year old pitcher here. He's inexpensive, has monster K numbers, and historically TJ patients are better the second season. IMO he shouldn't even enter the conversation for guys that should/could be moved.

The Volquez of 2008 was a #1 starter, no doubt. I wouldn't call him an ace, a term I reserve for the truly dominant guys like Halladay, but that's neither here nor there. I'll take 200 IP of a mid 3's FIP 8 days a week. But I'm not sure it's reasonable for us to assume that level of production as the baseline moving forward. It's certainly a possibility, but not as the mean expectation.

The strikeouts are great, but if you have to walk a guy for every 2 you strikeout, you're giving a lot of it back. It's like stealing 60 bases and getting caught 30 times in the process. I know it's impressive to watch and it's tantalizing because we're able to envision him being truly dominant if he'd just get those walks under control - which he does on occasion. But at the end of the day, a guy with a 2:1 ratio is a guy with a 2:1 ratio and is going to produce similar results whether that's coming from 9 & 4.5 or from 6 & 3. The Volquez type just takes more pitches to get there.

In no way am I suggesting that Voqluez doesn't belong in the rotation or that he's not a major asset. He's still in his prime, as you point out, and could yet take another step forward. He's got ace potential if and when his control improves. But he's also no spring chicken and most pitchers have done most of their developing at this point.

I'm suggesting that there's a pretty big confidence interval around what we can expect from him. Maybe he becomes that ace again. Or maybe he continues to be inconsistent with his command and stays a low 4s ERA guy (still a very valuable asset given his salary). Or maybe he gets hurt again. Or maybe the control worsens or he loses velocity and can't miss as many bats. Sure, those are possibilities for any pitcher. But for a guy with a history of control problems and with a TJ surgery under his belt, those concerns are much more salient. If another team is willing to value him at that upside level, the Reds would be wise to cash in for something with more certainty.

kaldaniels
11-17-2010, 02:12 PM
According to one exec, Logan Morrison and Ricky Nolasco would get it done for Upton.

That means the price is likely Drew Stubbs and Homer Bailey. Would you do it? I would, especially with several CF options on the rise (Heisey, Sappelt, LaMarre, and of course eventually Yorman).

I wouldn't. Stubbs is a keeper to me...not worth the risk of Bailey finally putting it together just for the uprade from Stubbs to Upton.

TheNext44
11-17-2010, 02:27 PM
I agree with RMR that Volquez is the best trade bait among the Reds starters. I think he can bring back the most talent.

But I do think that he could be a true ace eventually. He has only had one full season in the majors, so it's hard to use his numbers to define him, yet. Add in that he is coming off Tommy John, which has made many pitchers better, and many pitchers worse, and it's near impossible to accurately project his future.

I would still rather trade him for pieces the Reds need than wait and find out, but I think there's a decent chance he could be as good as he was in the first half of 08.

RedsManRick
11-17-2010, 02:36 PM
It's ironic that the logic for trading Volquez is similar to the logic that led to us acquiring him... But we shouldn't use Hamilton as the assumed path for Voqluez.

TRF
11-17-2010, 03:10 PM
It's a distinction without a difference, if there's a distinction there at all. It's the proportion of each that counts. In either scenario, the issue is that he needs to throw fewer balls relative to strikes and he has not demonstrated an ability to do so.



The Volquez of 2008 was a #1 starter, no doubt. I wouldn't call him an ace, a term I reserve for the truly dominant guys like Halladay, but that's neither here nor there. I'll take 200 IP of a mid 3's FIP 8 days a week. But I'm not sure it's reasonable for us to assume that level of production as the baseline moving forward. It's certainly a possibility, but not as the mean expectation.

The strikeouts are great, but if you have to walk a guy for every 2 you strikeout, you're giving a lot of it back. It's like stealing 60 bases and getting caught 30 times in the process. I know it's impressive to watch and it's tantalizing because we're able to envision him being truly dominant if he'd just get those walks under control - which he does on occasion. But at the end of the day, a guy with a 2:1 ratio is a guy with a 2:1 ratio and is going to produce similar results whether that's coming from 9 & 4.5 or from 6 & 3. The Volquez type just takes more pitches to get there.

In no way am I suggesting that Voqluez doesn't belong in the rotation or that he's not a major asset. He's still in his prime, as you point out, and could yet take another step forward. He's got ace potential if and when his control improves. But he's also no spring chicken and most pitchers have done most of their developing at this point.

I'm suggesting that there's a pretty big confidence interval around what we can expect from him. Maybe he becomes that ace again. Or maybe he continues to be inconsistent with his command and stays a low 4s ERA guy (still a very valuable asset given his salary). Or maybe he gets hurt again. Or maybe the control worsens or he loses velocity and can't miss as many bats. Sure, those are possibilities for any pitcher. But for a guy with a history of control problems and with a TJ surgery under his belt, those concerns are much more salient. If another team is willing to value him at that upside level, the Reds would be wise to cash in for something with more certainty.

Except we have no reason not to assume 2008 is a baseline anymore than 2006 was for Liriano. Sure, there are differences in the two pitchers, well one difference: EV walks more. I just don't see that as a huge insurmountable problem. He K's a lot of guys, and if H/9 at 8 or lower, then in this day and age, he's a #1. He's a 1.30 WHIP type of pitcher with huge K numbers.

As for trading for more certainty, where is the certainty in this rotation past Arroyo? Cueto? maybe. after that? pfft. all unproven uncertain and the furthest thing from certainty. The Reds have 3 needs as of today: a LF that isn't named Gomes and a stud at SS. They will likely acquire neither. The SS they need isn't on the market, and Gomes is not leaving.

The third thing they need is a combination of health and that magical step forward. (Chapman, Bailey, Leake, Wood, Janish, Heisey...)

IMO 3 rotation spots are locked: Arroyo, Cueto and Volquez. Bailey, Leake, Chapman and Wood fighting for the last two spots while Maloney withers in Louisville. The pen is pretty well stocked, with a wild card in Arredondo.

I haven't been Jocketty's biggest supporter, but he's in possession of a solid team right now. He may have some wiggle room in the budget, but unless he trades some chips for a MAJOR player, I don't see much happening during the meetings.

Benihana
11-17-2010, 03:36 PM
Reports now say the Dbacks will seek 4-5 players for Upton, with at least 3 of those being major league ready.

Leake, Alonso, Heisey, and one of Francisco/Frazier/Boxberger.

Would you do it?

TRF
11-17-2010, 03:57 PM
Reports now say the Dbacks will seek 4-5 players for Upton, with at least 3 of those being major league ready.

Leake, Alonso, Heisey, and one of Francisco/Frazier/Boxberger.

Would you do it?

oh god yes. It isn't enough talent IMO to get it done, but yeah, I'd make that offer.

Edit: then again, Brandon Allen ain't the answer at 1B, so maybe it would be.

Puffy
11-17-2010, 03:59 PM
Reports now say the Dbacks will seek 4-5 players for Upton, with at least 3 of those being major league ready.

Leake, Alonso, Heisey, and one of Francisco/Frazier/Boxberger.

Would you do it?

Absolutely. But I doubt the Diamondbacks would

kaldaniels
11-17-2010, 04:20 PM
Reports now say the Dbacks will seek 4-5 players for Upton, with at least 3 of those being major league ready.

Leake, Alonso, Heisey, and one of Francisco/Frazier/Boxberger.

Would you do it?

Now we are onto something. Alonso is the only piece of the puzzle that would give me hesitation. (Hard to imagine getting much more of a player than Upton for him at this point though)

But that is the type of deal that would make the Reds one of the favorites to go to the World Series in 2011.

RedsManRick
11-17-2010, 04:38 PM
Except we have no reason not to assume 2008 is a baseline anymore than 2006 was for Liriano. Sure, there are differences in the two pitchers, well one difference: EV walks more. I just don't see that as a huge insurmountable problem. He K's a lot of guys, and if H/9 at 8 or lower, then in this day and age, he's a #1. He's a 1.30 WHIP type of pitcher with huge K numbers.

I never asserted 2006 was Lirano's baseline either. Rather, I was merely showing apples to apples. While Liriano has been effective after TJ, he has not bounced back to his peak season. Thus, he can hardle be used as an example to suggest that Volquez will bounce back to his peak level of performance. That's not to refute the possibility, just to say that Liriano doesn't inform your argument.

Secondly, I've fully recognized that if Volquez repeats 2008, he's a #1 starter. If he repeats 2009/10, he's not. So the question becomes, what do we expect from him moving forward -- peripherals that support a 3.30 ERA or ones that support a 4.10? In order to get back to #1 starter level, he's going to need to get the walk rate down a bit while sustaining his K and HR rates.



As for trading for more certainty, where is the certainty in this rotation past Arroyo? Cueto? maybe. after that? pfft. all unproven uncertain and the furthest thing from certainty. The Reds have 3 needs as of today: a LF that isn't named Gomes and a stud at SS. They will likely acquire neither. The SS they need isn't on the market, and Gomes is not leaving.

The third thing they need is a combination of health and that magical step forward. (Chapman, Bailey, Leake, Wood, Janish, Heisey...)

IMO 3 rotation spots are locked: Arroyo, Cueto and Volquez. Bailey, Leake, Chapman and Wood fighting for the last two spots while Maloney withers in Louisville. The pen is pretty well stocked, with a wild card in Arredondo.

I haven't been Jocketty's biggest supporter, but he's in possession of a solid team right now. He may have some wiggle room in the budget, but unless he trades some chips for a MAJOR player, I don't see much happening during the meetings.

I'm not sure I quite understand your magical step forward argument. Sure, health from those guys is needed, but I'm not sure what else we need to see from Bailey or Wood in particular to get a sense of their skill set. Both have pretty clear histories. Bailey and Wood certainly don't need to improve to be assets -- just give us 25+ starts.

I think you're looking for a level of certainty that simply doesn't exist with pitchers, period. Ask the Red Sox about Josh Beckett, the Yankees about Vazquez, or the Twins about Pavano if you want to go the other direction.

Sure, in the face of uncertainty, volume is a crucial, but we can't look at just part of the picture. Any argument about the justification for trading a player has to include the players coming back in return. Absent that, we have no way to assess the overall risk/reward balance shift.

As for trading for certainty, that certainty doesn't have to be LF. It could be a more proven starter. I advocate Volquez as part of a package for Greinke.
However, given the realities of the payroll and the resigning of Gomes and Hernandez, I'm recognize a major payroll addition isn't likely (unless somebody takes a decent chunk of Cordero's contract). Perhaps if they sign Votto/Cueto to longer term deals that include discounts in 2011...

Mario-Rijo
11-17-2010, 07:58 PM
Reports now say the Dbacks will seek 4-5 players for Upton, with at least 3 of those being major league ready.

Leake, Alonso, Heisey, and one of Francisco/Frazier/Boxberger.

Would you do it?

Nope not a chance. Too much money + potential injury + a bit too heavy of a swing & miss bat for my taste.

Edd Roush
11-17-2010, 08:12 PM
Reports now say the Dbacks will seek 4-5 players for Upton, with at least 3 of those being major league ready.

Leake, Alonso, Heisey, and one of Francisco/Frazier/Boxberger.

Would you do it?

Benihana, I love that idea. I am least bullish on Leake of any of the starting pitchers and truly believe you are selling high at this point. Cost conscious team's like the D Backs gotta love that they control him for five more years. Heisey and Alonso could start for them right away and they can pick their favorite of Francisco, Frazier and Boxberger. I think that deal makes sense for both teams.

I also agree with kaldaniels that this deal could really put us over the top.

Upton is quite the athelete and I love the OBP and defense. He is the kind of guy the Reds can put in the leadoff spot every day and not have to worry about that problem for the next five years.

Upton
Phillips
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Stubbs
Catchers
Janish

That looks pretty good to me...

edabbs44
11-17-2010, 08:38 PM
It's ironic that the logic for trading Volquez is similar to the logic that led to us acquiring him... But we shouldn't use Hamilton as the assumed path for Voqluez.

Cincy is also in a different place right now. They went from pitching poor to pitching upper middle class pretty quickly.

Benihana
11-18-2010, 11:43 AM
Rumors have the Red Sox talking to the D-backs late into the night, with a third team involved. While my first choice is clearly to obtain Upton, I could see the Reds being a perfect fit as the third team:

D'backs trade: Upton
Red Sox trade: Ellsbury and Bard
Reds trade: Heisey, Maloney and Alonso

D'backs get: Bard, Heisey and Alonso
Red Sox get: Upton and Maloney
Reds get: Ellsbury

Small chance the Reds might have to change Maloney to Leake and send him to Arizona instead of Boston. I don't think I'd trade Leake, Alonso and Heisey for Ellsbury. For Upton yes, for Ellsbury no. The D'backs probably aren't as keen on Ellsbury because he is arb-eligible. The Sox would clearly prefer Upton to the disgruntled Ellsbury. They are also reportedly looking for rotational depth, and Maloney would be a nice candidate for that. The D'backs need a 1B if they can't land Konerko, and they would presumably want a young, cheap OF to replace Upton, for which Heisey fits the bill.

Meanwhile the Reds get their LF and leadoff hitter without doing any harm to the major league roster.

Again, my preference is for Upton (and Kemp after him), but if the Reds don't think Upton's $50MM contract can slot in alongside Bruce, Stubbs and Votto, then Ellsbury might be the next best option.

camisadelgolf
11-18-2010, 12:11 PM
Rumors have the Red Sox talking to the D-backs late into the night, with a third team involved. While my first choice is clearly to obtain Upton, I could see the Reds being a perfect fit as the third team:

D'backs trade: Upton
Red Sox trade: Ellsbury and Bard
Reds trade: Heisey, Maloney and Alonso

D'backs get: Bard, Heisey and Alonso
Red Sox get: Upton and Maloney
Reds get: Ellsbury

Small chance the Reds might have to change Maloney to Leake and send him to Arizona instead of Boston. I don't think I'd trade Leake, Alonso and Heisey for Ellsbury. For Upton yes, for Ellsbury no. The D'backs probably aren't as keen on Ellsbury because he is arb-eligible. The Sox would clearly prefer Upton to the disgruntled Ellsbury. They are also reportedly looking for rotational depth, and Maloney would be a nice candidate for that. The D'backs need a 1B if they can't land Konerko, and they would presumably want a young, cheap OF to replace Upton, for which Heisey fits the bill.

Meanwhile the Reds get their LF and leadoff hitter without doing any harm to the major league roster.

Again, my preference is for Upton (and Kemp after him), but if the Reds don't think Upton's $50MM contract can slot in alongside Bruce, Stubbs and Votto, then Ellsbury might be the next best option.
The Sox get away with murder in that deal imho.

*BaseClogger*
11-18-2010, 02:33 PM
You guys are WAY underestimating the cost of Upton. He will cost the Reds Leake, Mesoraco, Alonso, and Heisey at the minimum, IMO...

blumj
11-18-2010, 02:54 PM
The Sox get away with murder in that deal imho.

Word is the D-Backs asked for Buchholz, Bard, Ellsbury, and prospects from the Red Sox.

Red Leader
11-18-2010, 02:57 PM
Word is the D-Backs asked for Buchholz, Bard, Ellsbury, and prospects from the Red Sox.

I noticed that said "prospects" (plural). Good Lord. The D-Backs definitely aren't undervaluing Upton.

Benihana
11-18-2010, 03:03 PM
You guys are WAY underestimating the cost of Upton. He will cost the Reds Leake, Mesoraco, Alonso, and Heisey at the minimum, IMO...

I said Leake, Alonso, Heisey, and one of Fraizer/Francisco/Boxberger.

I don't think that is underestimating at all.

klw
11-18-2010, 03:16 PM
Word is the D-Backs asked for Buchholz, Bard, Ellsbury, and prospects from the Red Sox.

Well I'm shocked the Red Sox didn't jump all over that!! :rolleyes: I thought they would have to include '75 Lynn, '78 Rice and '86 Clemens as well. Did the D' Backs forget to ask for Lester too? I guess there is no harm in asking.

Dan
11-18-2010, 03:57 PM
What would it take for the Reds to get Ellsbury and Lowrie from the Red Sox?

I'd start with Bailey and Alonso, maybe Leake, and go from there.

If both those pitchers were traded, I'd make sure to sign Webb.

Ghosts of 1990
11-18-2010, 04:15 PM
Here's what I'm wondering...

Why are the Dbacks listening to offers on Upton? He's a guy you build around. If he's not a guy you build around then who ever will be? What made the Red Sox start targeting a guy who should be as untouchable as they come?

What's to stop the Red Sox or Yankees from targeting a Jay Bruce if they can't land Upton?

bucksfan2
11-18-2010, 04:16 PM
Here's what I'm wondering...

Why are the Dbacks listening to offers on Upton? He's a guy you build around. If he's not a guy you build around then who ever will be? What made the Red Sox start targeting a guy who should be as untouchable as they come?

What's to stop the Red Sox or Yankees from targeting a Jay Bruce if they can't land Upton?

Who cares? The Reds don't have to trade Jay Bruce. And if the Yankees or Red Sox come in with a package that knocks your socks off then why not trade Bruce?

*BaseClogger*
11-18-2010, 04:17 PM
I said Leake, Alonso, Heisey, and one of Fraizer/Francisco/Boxberger.

I don't think that is underestimating at all.

Yeah, it is because there is a huge gap between Mesoraco and your guys. And I was underestimating it too based on what they were demanding from the Red Sox...

Benihana
11-18-2010, 04:40 PM
Yeah, it is because there is a huge gap between Mesoraco and your guys. And I was underestimating it too based on what they were demanding from the Red Sox...

The only difference in my package and your package is Mesoraco vs. Frazier/Francisco/Boxberger. Sure, Mesoraco has more value, but I'd hardly call it grossly understimating. While we're on the topic, can you please explain to me why Arizona would be interested in Mesoraco when they are one of the few teams with a catching SURPLUS? (They traded Chris Snyder this season because they are so high on Miguel Montero)

The Sox proposal was ridiculous. If Upton gets traded, it will be for substantially less than Buchholz/Bard/Ellsbury etc. Two of those three + some filler prospects would probably get it done, IMO.

*BaseClogger*
11-18-2010, 04:57 PM
The only difference in my package and your package is Mesoraco vs. Frazier/Francisco/Boxberger. Sure, Mesoraco has more value, but I'd hardly call it grossly understimating. While we're on the topic, can you please explain to me why Arizona would be interested in Mesoraco when they are one of the few teams with a catching SURPLUS? (They traded Chris Snyder this season because they are so high on Miguel Montero)

Sure. First of all, Mesoraco is likely a B+ type prospect, while your group is made up of more like C+ type prospects. That's a pretty big deal.

Secondly, I never pointed my finger directly at you with my comment so I don't know why you are taking it so personally.

Lastly, they would be interested in Mesoraco because he is a prospect and he has lots of value. They are trying to rebuild and add as many young players to their organization as possible. If they are willing to trade Upton then why would they stay put with a guy like Montero? IDK.


The Sox proposal was ridiculous. If Upton gets traded, it will be for substantially less than Buchholz/Bard/Ellsbury etc. Two of those three + some filler prospects would probably get it done, IMO.

If they don't get what they want then they won't trade him. I doubt they move him for much less than what they wanted from Da Sawks...

Benihana
11-18-2010, 05:06 PM
Sure. First of all, Mesoraco is likely a B+ type prospect, while your group is made up of more like C+ type prospects. That's a pretty big deal.

Secondly, I never pointed my finger directly at you with my comment so I don't know why you are taking it so personally.

Lastly, they would be interested in Mesoraco because he is a prospect and he has lots of value. They are trying to rebuild and add as many young players to their organization as possible. If they are willing to trade Upton then why would they stay put with a guy like Montero? IDK.



If they don't get what they want then they won't trade him. I doubt they move him for much less than what they wanted from Da Sawks...

Not taking it personally ;)

I don't think Arizona would look for a catcher in return for Upton. At least not a ML-ready one.

Montero is one of those guys that is probably worth more to his current team than he would be in a trade.

Finally, I'll bet you that if Upton is traded, it will be for significantly less than Buchholz, Bard, Ellsbury and multiple prospects. It's like when Dan Haren, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay were traded- the return was significantly less than what had been reportedly demanded. Haren might be the best example because he, like Upton, was a young player signed cheaply for multiple years. In other words, he didn't have to go. I was right about the Uggla return, and I'll bet you on this one as well. Of course he won't be given away, but he won't fetch three players the caliber of Buchholz, Bard, and Ellsbury PLUS multiple prospects, either.

camisadelgolf
11-18-2010, 05:25 PM
One theory I have is that by saying Upton is available, they'll get a lot of trade proposals. It may start out as, "We'll offer you these 4-5 players for Upton and Stephen Drew," and then it could evolve into a deal that involves Stephen Drew being traded for a closer and a couple prospects. It's a clever way of finding out what other GMs are looking for and who they're willing to part with.

Benihana
11-18-2010, 05:27 PM
One theory I have is that by saying Upton is available, they'll get a lot of trade proposals. It may start out as, "We'll offer you these 4-5 players for Upton and Stephen Drew," and then it could evolve into a deal that involves Stephen Drew being traded for a closer and a couple prospects. It's a clever way of finding out what other GMs are looking for and who they're willing to part with.

Except that they've said Drew is less available than Upton due to the dearth of SS options. Could be posturing of course, but I'll take it at face value.

Upton could bring more in prospects, costs more money, and plays a less valuable position. Of course he's more talented, so...

*BaseClogger*
11-18-2010, 05:38 PM
Finally, I'll bet you that if Upton is traded, it will be for significantly less than Buchholz, Bard, Ellsbury and multiple prospects. It's like when Dan Haren, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay were traded- the return was significantly less than what had been reportedly demanded. Haren might be the best example because he, like Upton, was a young player signed cheaply for multiple years. In other words, he didn't have to go. I was right about the Uggla return, and I'll bet you on this one as well. Of course he won't be given away, but he won't fetch three players the caliber of Buchholz, Bard, and Ellsbury PLUS multiple prospects, either.

Haren was different and still garnered a cachet of prospects. I agree that they won't get everything they are demanding and asking for Buchholz is simply puzzling, but they are trying to keep the price as high as possible. Bard and Ellsbury + two top prospects is still better than the Reds package you have been tossing around...

camisadelgolf
11-18-2010, 05:44 PM
Except that they've said Drew is less available than Upton due to the dearth of SS options. Could be posturing of course, but I'll take it at face value.

Upton could bring more in prospects, costs more money, and plays a less valuable position. Of course he's more talented, so...
That was just an example. Instead of Drew, insert Mark Reynolds, Blaine Boyer, Kelly Johnson, or anyone else they might want to trade.

corkedbat
11-19-2010, 01:57 AM
That was just an example. Instead of Drew, insert Mark Reynolds, Blaine Boyer, Kelly Johnson, or anyone else they might want to trade.


Love Upton, I just would like to see it done with Mes, Wood or Stubbs.

Leake, Alonso, Frazier, Sappelt & Valiquette?

I might include Stubbs if my back was against the wall, but Only he Lekae and one more. If I'd did include Stubbs (dang, I don't like the thought of that), I'd turn around and offer Francisco and a reliever (Jordan Smith?) to the A's for Coco Crisp.

Rhen again, I'd be just as willing to hold onto Stubbs and send less talent Ariz's way for Kelly Johnon na dplatoon him with gomes.