PDA

View Full Version : Tulo gets paid... even more



RedsManRick
11-30-2010, 12:14 AM
The Rockies already had SS Troy Tulowitski under contract through 2014. But the Rockies decided they loved the Todd Helton experience so much that they'd do it again. He just got extended through 2020 at an average of ~$20M/yr during the 6 year extension.

The guy is awesome, but I'm not sure I'd want to owe anybody anything 8 or 9 years from now.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/11/rockies-tulowitzki-nearing-ten-year-extension.html

RedEye
11-30-2010, 12:19 AM
Uh... I suppose Joey Votto and agent are taking note. *gulp*

kaldaniels
11-30-2010, 12:28 AM
Why?

westofyou
11-30-2010, 12:42 AM
Be careful what you wish for Rockie fans

http://cache1.asset-cache.net/xc/101598569.jpg?v=1&c=IWSAsset&k=2&d=77BFBA49EF878921A343B2C87A49D8F5D44E9E621533D2C9 A412B06FA0749D2C969D4ADED293EB7BE30A760B0D811297

Ron Madden
11-30-2010, 02:56 AM
I think it's foolish to take a chance on any player to remain healthy and maintain above average production for anything over 4 to 5 years.

But then I guess that's just me.

bucksfan2
11-30-2010, 09:03 AM
Just the price of doing business. What happened the last time the best offensive and defensive SS hit the market in his prime? The Rangers paid him $25M/year over 10 years. I think you can make the argument that Tulo is one of the best 5-10 players in baseball. IMO they may be getting him for the bulk of his contract at a slight bargain.

Chip R
11-30-2010, 09:35 AM
I guess he won't be going to the Yankees.

Ghosts of 1990
11-30-2010, 09:59 AM
I think it's a good deal. And hopefully the Reds are taking note. I understand why you build around a guy at age 25 who is at a premium position who is of MVP caliber and barring an on the field injury, will have Hall of Fame numbers.

I've said it again and again. If you don't commit and build around someone, then you're really not giving your organization or fan base any direction. A deal like this gives an entire organization a basis to operate.

RedsManRick
11-30-2010, 05:34 PM
Tom Tango thinks the contract was surprisingly fair for both parties: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/tulo/

The short version is that Tango looked at average aging curves for players like Tulo and used some reasonable assumptions about how salaries will change over time and came up with $119 being the right "average" figure. If he ages well, it's a bargain. If he ages poorly, it's albatross.

There's plenty of wiggle room for changing the assumptions, as Tom dutifully notes, but the point remains. When you consider the full range of possible outcomes, the Rockies and Tulo seem to have found a reasonable middle ground.

I recommend everybody read the article and some of the comments as it really does a good job bring the value of the WAR framework to life. It also serves to remind us that the value of money changes significantly over time. Thanks to inflation, a contract with a fixed salary is actually one that declines in real value over time, meaning it somewhat mirrors a player on the decline performance-wise. Put in context, by the time 2020 rolls around, $20M will be worth something like the equivalent of $10-12M today.

Ron Madden
12-01-2010, 03:32 AM
I guess time will tell.

Ghosts of 1990
12-01-2010, 11:54 AM
Per John Fay in regards to Tulo's deal:


A Reds insider told me that the Reds can’t afford a $20 million a year player with the payroll at current levels. Tulowitzki’s new contract makes it hard to argue that Votto isn’t worth that.

Is he saying that unless Votto takes less, the Reds won't be able to afford him?

Hoosier Red
12-01-2010, 12:05 PM
Per John Fay in regards to Tulo's deal:

A Reds insider told me that the Reds can’t afford a $20 million a year player with the payroll at current levels. Tulowitzki’s new contract makes it hard to argue that Votto isn’t worth that.

Is he saying that unless Votto takes less, the Reds won't be able to afford him?

I think the important point is "at current levels." This is one reason discussing a long term contract with Votto is not going to happen this year IMO. The Reds need to see if a true winning team results in increased revenue next year. They need to see which of their pitchers they are going to be keeping(and how much that will cost.)

The discussion of is "X player worth X money" is really too simplistic when taken in a vacuum. There are certain situations where the Reds are going to be able to pay Joey Votto what he is certain to demand and still be able to have a winning team. There are certain situationss where what Votto is demanding is too much for the Reds to sustain a winning team and they'll have to redistribute that to other players.

The key is not necessarily can the Reds afford Votto. Of course they can. But the question is, can the Reds afford Votto and still have enough payroll to field a winning team.

redsmetz
12-01-2010, 01:17 PM
I think the important point is "at current levels." This is one reason discussing a long term contract with Votto is not going to happen this year IMO. The Reds need to see if a true winning team results in increased revenue next year. They need to see which of their pitchers they are going to be keeping(and how much that will cost.)

The discussion of is "X player worth X money" is really too simplistic when taken in a vacuum. There are certain situations where the Reds are going to be able to pay Joey Votto what he is certain to demand and still be able to have a winning team. There are certain situationss where what Votto is demanding is too much for the Reds to sustain a winning team and they'll have to redistribute that to other players.

The key is not necessarily can the Reds afford Votto. Of course they can. But the question is, can the Reds afford Votto and still have enough payroll to field a winning team.

I agree with your assessment, particularly that the key words there are "at current levels."

The OP commented that perhaps the Rockies hadn't learned from signing Todd Helton to such an arrangement, but I think Helton has proven valuable during that time. Likewise, they've just restructured his contract this year or last and extended it. I don't see Helton as a cautionary tale. And they signed Helton (and not Tulo) at a younger age than we did Griffey.

Certainly this deal will affect Votto's situation and I also agree that we don't need to rush into a LTC with him. Certainly we should have a frank discussion about a fair contract for this year, but I'm not going to worry if it's a one year deal and we cross the LTC bridge down the road. I like where we're setting ourselves and it will give us flexibility should we be unable to sign some of our guys long term (or decide it's not advantageous to do so).

mth123
12-01-2010, 09:39 PM
I'm not as worried about Votto as many are. Tex is making big bucks. Soon Pujols, Gonzalez, Fielder and Howard will be too. I'm not sure how many teams can afford a $20 Million plus 1B. By the time FA comes around for Votto, all the teams that can afford him may already have somebody else in place. I think the number of options at 1B will serve to keep costs below what they are for a comparable bat who can play SS. I love Votto, but lets not fool ourselves and pretend he's more valuable than Tulo. He isn't.

redsfandan
12-02-2010, 10:39 AM
The OP commented that perhaps the Rockies hadn't learned from signing Todd Helton to such an arrangement, but I think Helton has proven valuable during that time. Likewise, they've just restructured his contract this year or last and extended it. I don't see Helton as a cautionary tale. And they signed Helton (and not Tulo) at a younger age than we did Griffey.

A few points...

Helton still has some value, although it's debatable how much, but he hasn't been worth his contract lately. He's simply not the same guy he was when the Rockies decided to give him that big contract. Back then he was in his prime having just come off a season where he had 42 homers, 138 runs, and led the league in a bunch of other categories (216 hits, 59 doubles, 147 rbi, a .372 batting average, .463 obp, .698 slg, 1.162 ops, 405 total bases, 192 runs created, 103 extra base hits, an 8.8 WAR, .... ). The guy was a hitting machine. But that was then. In the last 3 years he's hit a combined total of 30 homers. He hasn't hit 20 homers in a season since '05. And in 2 of the last 3 years his ops was under .800. From '06 to '10, the years he couldn't even hit 20 homers, he made $16.6M/yr. I don't think that's the kind of production they were hoping for.

They did extend him at the start of this year but it was really just to lower how much he'll be paid this year so they'd have more room in their payroll. Instead of $19.1M he'll get a $4.6M signing bonus and a $6M salary for 2011. Instead of having to pay him either $23M or a $4.6M buyout they'll pay him $4.9M to keep him on the team in 2012. In return he'll get $5M to play in 2013 and $13.1M deferred over a 10 year period (2014-2023). Basically they made the best out of a bad contract.

Now, he was younger than Junior when he signed that contract in March of '01. And he was younger when his contract took effect in '03 than Junior was in 2000 (the 1st year of his contract). But, Helton was still a 29 year old player starting the 1st year of a 9 year contract (which also included a nice expensive option for a 10th year).

I don't think the Rockies would've given Helton the same contract if they knew what the last 6 years of that 9 year contract would look like. Maybe they'll have better luck with Tulo. I bet they're hoping they do.