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dfs
11-30-2010, 03:26 PM
I didn't see any comment. Perhaps with the holidays, I missed it.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2011_zips_projections_-_cincinnati_reds/

Folks who want to concede first bast to Yonder and move Votto have to ask themeslves...Why? The projection (which is usually young/rookie happy) believes that Gomes will out hit the big Cuban.

Anybody really think Danny Dorn could do that?

No way does Edmonds reach that projection in terms of playing time or in terms of rates.

*BaseClogger*
11-30-2010, 03:42 PM
Folks who want to concede first bast to Yonder and move Votto have to ask themeslves...Why? The projection (which is usually young/rookie happy) believes that Gomes will out hit the big Cuban.

Anybody really think Danny Dorn could do that?

These projections are based purely on quantitative results, so a guy like Alonso who has been hampered by injuries and is getting attention because of his tools is not going to come out ahead of a guy like Dorn who most feel is a AAAA player.

Gotta love the Mesoraco, Wood, and Joseph projections though...

TRF
11-30-2010, 03:59 PM
All Danny Dorn does is hit. In the right platoon (Dorn/Heisey) he'd be a beast.

RedsManRick
11-30-2010, 04:17 PM
Zips loves it some Bill Bray. Top 3 comps are Billy Wager, Randy Myers and Mark Davis.

Daryl Thompson's top comp is Chris Reitsma -- I find that funny and perhaps a tad too accurate.

I know I said it last year too, but I'd be surprised if Dorn made it through the Rule V.

edabbs44
11-30-2010, 04:36 PM
All Danny Dorn does is hit. In the right platoon (Dorn/Heisey) he'd be a beast.

Plus, they are projecting that he does that as a righty. Imagine if they projected him hitting from the correct side of the plate?

MONSTER.

PS: Heisey vs LHP last year - .169/.242/.303

Small sample, but worth noting.

RedsManRick
11-30-2010, 05:28 PM
Plus, they are projecting that he does that as a righty. Imagine if they projected him hitting from the correct side of the plate?

MONSTER.

PS: Heisey vs LHP last year - .169/.242/.303

Small sample, but worth noting.

Re: Heisey's small sample, is it really worth noting? If we're going to estimate his true talent against LHP, what % of the estimate is made up of last year's performance? If it's less than 50% (and it's probably a lot less than 50%), doesn't it serve as more of a misleading distraction outside of the broader context of what we can expect from him?

His performance against lefties last year does count, but I'm not sure what citing only that performance -- even with a note about small sample size -- does to advance our understanding of the situation. Nothing on you edbabbs, I find myself doing this all the time. Just something that came to mind.

Roy Tucker
11-30-2010, 06:07 PM
I do like the acronym ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events).

Well done.

camisadelgolf
11-30-2010, 06:17 PM
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcdowod01.shtml

Scrap Irony
11-30-2010, 06:30 PM
The projected 660 OPS (78 OPS+) for Janish is troubling at the moment, though Cozart's OPS of 680 (82 OPS+) isn't much better. I'd like to see someone else brought in at SS, for sure. The 100 OPS+ LF number (around 100 from everyone likely to play there, with the exception of a questionable Edmonds) looks pretty poor, too.

If projections can be believed, the Red's main offensive starters should be above average overall, though it won't lead the league again.

kpresidente
11-30-2010, 06:58 PM
Re: Heisey's small sample, is it really worth noting? If we're going to estimate his true talent against LHP, what % of the estimate is made up of last year's performance? If it's less than 50% (and it's probably a lot less than 50%), doesn't it serve as more of a misleading distraction outside of the broader context of what we can expect from him?

Well, he didn't hit lefties in the minors very well, either.

RedsManRick
11-30-2010, 08:14 PM
Well, he didn't hit lefties in the minors very well, either.

That's fine, but then that should have been the point -- that he simply doesn't hit lefties well. Citing the 2010 data simply distracted from that.

MWM
11-30-2010, 08:25 PM
I realize these are all quantitative, but I have a hard time believing Jay Bruce will go backwards in OBP while remaining flat slugging. I can't imagine he goes backwards next year.

edabbs44
11-30-2010, 10:12 PM
That's fine, but then that should have been the point -- that he simply doesn't hit lefties well. Citing the 2010 data simply distracted from that.

I wasn't the one who automatically assumed that he should be the short side of the platoon just because he is a righty. Isn't that worse than using 100 or so major league PAs as a basis for reason?

Not a big deal either way, but after seeing Votto struggle vs LHPs in the minors and then mash in the majors, I wonder how valuable those minor league splits really are.

Griffey012
12-01-2010, 12:24 AM
I realize these are all quantitative, but I have a hard time believing Jay Bruce will go backwards in OBP while remaining flat slugging. I can't imagine he goes backwards next year.

I am expecting the arrival of Jay Bruce in 2011. Much like the Jay Bruce we saw late in the season in 2010.

edabbs44
12-09-2010, 10:45 AM
Zips loves it some Bill Bray. Top 3 comps are Billy Wager, Randy Myers and Mark Davis.

Daryl Thompson's top comp is Chris Reitsma -- I find that funny and perhaps a tad too accurate.

I know I said it last year too, but I'd be surprised if Dorn made it through the Rule V.

http://smartcanucks.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/surprise.jpg

camisadelgolf
12-09-2010, 10:48 AM
Dorn might want to learn to speak Japanese.

RedsManRick
12-09-2010, 11:22 AM
I just don't get it with Dorn -- nobody AL team is interested in a 26 year old guy who hit .302/.398/.545 in AAA last year? Sure, he's limited defensively, but why pay Jack Cust $3M when you could have Dorn for free?

edabbs44
12-09-2010, 11:24 AM
I just don't get it with Dorn -- nobody AL team is interested in a 26 year old guy who hit .302/.398/.545 in AAA last year? Sure, he's limited defensively, but why pay Jack Cust $3M when you could have Dorn for free?

Maybe because Dorn carries the risk of the unknown? If he bottoms out, you now have a hole in your roster that could have been filled by Cust, who you know will get you in the .800-.850 range of OPS?

camisadelgolf
12-09-2010, 11:31 AM
Even against rhp, I'm not entirely sold on Dorn's ability to hit breaking pitches.

dougdirt
12-09-2010, 11:35 AM
I just don't get it with Dorn -- nobody AL team is interested in a 26 year old guy who hit .302/.398/.545 in AAA last year? Sure, he's limited defensively, but why pay Jack Cust $3M when you could have Dorn for free?

Between him and Horst not being taken, I am just utterly confused. Last year Ben Jukich was taken in the Rule V draft. He was ultimately returned, but Ben Jukich isn't nearly as good of a prospect as Horst is. How a lefty with stuff that grades out as average, good control and outstanding numbers in AA/AAA didn't get picked up is just confusing. Especially when we consider that these guys were taken:

Jose Flores - 21 year old who hasn't played in High A - RHP
Adrian Rosario - 20 year old who hasn't played in High A - RHP
Mason Tobin - Didn't throw a pitch in 2010, only threw 2.2 in 2009 and in 2008 he was in Low A where he threw 37.2 innings with 18 strikeouts and 18 walks.
Pat Egan - 25 years old, in AAA this season had a 1.70 WHIP, 53 hits allowed and 17 strikeouts in 37 innings.

I stopped looking at this point because I am just glad that teams are dumb.

dougdirt
12-09-2010, 11:36 AM
Maybe because Dorn carries the risk of the unknown? If he bottoms out, you now have a hole in your roster that could have been filled by Cust, who you know will get you in the .800-.850 range of OPS?
Scroll down and look at some of the players I listed who were taken. Talk about risk? And honestly, for $25,000 I would 100% take the risk of watching Dorn hit all spring long to see what I thought instead of taking pitchers who have never played in High A. Every day of the week.

RedsManRick
12-09-2010, 11:43 AM
I stopped looking at this point because I am just glad that teams are dumb.

Of course, we're the team that picked Sergio Valenzuela, one of the most laughable Rule V picks ever.

Teams seem more interested in trying to hit the lottery than merely adding an asset.

dougdirt
12-09-2010, 11:47 AM
Of course, we're the team that picked Sergio Valenzuela, one of the most laughable Rule V picks ever.

Teams seem more interested in trying to hit the lottery than merely adding an asset.
Touche.

HokieRed
12-09-2010, 12:07 PM
It's all about pitching, so I'm not surprised about Dorn, though I too can't see any reason why somebody wouldn't spend 25 grand to see what he can do in ST. Seems risk-free. I'm surprised we didn't lose Horst and pleased to see him come back to us. I wish I'd seen more of Dorn; there must be something in his swing that's just got him a bad label among the scouts. Anybody actually seen him enough to have a feel for that?

Heath
12-09-2010, 12:16 PM
Touche.

Everyone's looking for a Josh Hamilton in the Rule 5.

It's like everyone trying to find the next George Mason in the final 4.

Benihana
12-09-2010, 01:37 PM
The HR totals all look pretty low to me. 16 for Stubbs? 29 for Bruce?

I would hope that they each beat those projections by 10.

edabbs44
12-09-2010, 01:45 PM
Between him and Horst not being taken, I am just utterly confused. Last year Ben Jukich was taken in the Rule V draft. He was ultimately returned, but Ben Jukich isn't nearly as good of a prospect as Horst is. How a lefty with stuff that grades out as average, good control and outstanding numbers in AA/AAA didn't get picked up is just confusing. Especially when we consider that these guys were taken:

Jose Flores - 21 year old who hasn't played in High A - RHP
Adrian Rosario - 20 year old who hasn't played in High A - RHP
Mason Tobin - Didn't throw a pitch in 2010, only threw 2.2 in 2009 and in 2008 he was in Low A where he threw 37.2 innings with 18 strikeouts and 18 walks.
Pat Egan - 25 years old, in AAA this season had a 1.70 WHIP, 53 hits allowed and 17 strikeouts in 37 innings.

I stopped looking at this point because I am just glad that teams are dumb.

To think that any of us are smarter than all the organizations in baseball combined might be the questionable action in the equation.

Razor Shines
12-09-2010, 02:01 PM
The projected 660 OPS (78 OPS+) for Janish is troubling at the moment, though Cozart's OPS of 680 (82 OPS+) isn't much better. I'd like to see someone else brought in at SS, for sure. The 100 OPS+ LF number (around 100 from everyone likely to play there, with the exception of a questionable Edmonds) looks pretty poor, too.

If projections can be believed, the Red's main offensive starters should be above average overall, though it won't lead the league again.

He'd equal what OCab hit last year add in that he plays better defense and he'll probably bat 8th, it's at least somewhat of a step up.

Cedric
12-09-2010, 06:08 PM
I don't know about the Bruce projection at all.

I'm also expecting Homer to finally get a full year in the rotation. I expect him to improve a ton this year and be a stud for 2012.

mdccclxix
12-09-2010, 07:17 PM
I don't know about the Bruce projection at all.

I'm also expecting Homer to finally get a full year in the rotation. I expect him to improve a ton this year and be a stud for 2012.

I'm getting this feeling too, as he's struck me as a 26 or 27 year old that finally gets it, perhaps like a Gavin Floyd or even a Chris Carpenter at 29.

dougdirt
12-09-2010, 07:54 PM
To think that any of us are smarter than all the organizations in baseball combined might be the questionable action in the equation.

To think that on a single decision that some people on this board wouldn't make a better one is pretty questionable too. There have been many instances where many posters on here were dead right about something that a Major League team did and they were right about it from the very beginning. Now if we are talking about what they do as the entire body of work, yeah, you are very likely correct. If you are talking about on a single transaction, well, I would say that I believe us mortals can outthink GM's at times.

edabbs44
12-10-2010, 11:58 AM
To think that on a single decision that some people on this board wouldn't make a better one is pretty questionable too. There have been many instances where many posters on here were dead right about something that a Major League team did and they were right about it from the very beginning. Now if we are talking about what they do as the entire body of work, yeah, you are very likely correct. If you are talking about on a single transaction, well, I would say that I believe us mortals can outthink GM's at times.

The one we are talking about is where the entire league passed on a guy. I would say that 999 out of 1000 times, if the entire league passes on someone, they are probably correct in their assessment.

But I do agree with you on the transaction by transaction basis versus the entire body of work, especially when someone doesn't have any skin in the game on those suggested moves.

TRF
12-10-2010, 12:19 PM
The one we are talking about is where the entire league passed on a guy. I would say that 999 out of 1000 times, if the entire league passes on someone, they are probably correct in their assessment.

But I do agree with you on the transaction by transaction basis versus the entire body of work, especially when someone doesn't have any skin in the game on those suggested moves.

The entire league once passed on Cecil Fielder. Nelson Cruz was available to everyone. Dorn crushes RH pitching, the hand he'll face 75% of the time. Or 100% if used in a strict platoon.

edabbs44
12-10-2010, 12:37 PM
The entire league once passed on Cecil Fielder. Nelson Cruz was available to everyone. Dorn crushes RH pitching, the hand he'll face 75% of the time. Or 100% if used in a strict platoon.

I think that the teams know who Dorn is and what he does. We really don't have some sort of inside info on the guy.

And when it comes to guys who were either passed up (Fielder), drafted later (Pujols/Piazza) or traded for less than they ended up being worth (Bagwell), the PED question always looms and makes the assessment of the decision kind of unfair.

TRF
12-10-2010, 12:42 PM
PEDS. do not matter. it's a strawman argument, and you ignored Cruz. Fielder's numbers indicated he had power, but he was... fat. Teams passed on him so he went to Japan. Cruz was available to every team but had to settle for a minor league deal with the Rangers. Colby Lewis is another guy available to everyone.

Guys slip through all the time. GM's tend to favor the MLB known. Why do guys like Juan Castro still get jobs? Is he really better than the Ray Olmedos and Gookie Dawkins of the world, or is he just "known"?

edabbs44
12-10-2010, 01:29 PM
PEDS. do not matter. it's a strawman argument, and you ignored Cruz. Fielder's numbers indicated he had power, but he was... fat. Teams passed on him so he went to Japan. Cruz was available to every team but had to settle for a minor league deal with the Rangers. Colby Lewis is another guy available to everyone.

Guys slip through all the time. GM's tend to favor the MLB known. Why do guys like Juan Castro still get jobs? Is he really better than the Ray Olmedos and Gookie Dawkins of the world, or is he just "known"?

There are a few things to think about:

1) Regarding PEDs, they definitely do matter. If everyone passes on Player X and then he gets roided up and becomes a masher, are all the people in baseball idiots for not taking that future use of PEDs into account? You can only make a decision on the info you have at hand.

2) The other thing to keep in mind is that the general public really only has access to publically available data. If you have two seemingly similar players and one continually gets jobs and the other can't get a tryout, wouldn't you think that there is something more to it? Maybe Castro is a known quantity, but you aren't born "known". There's a reason...maybe Known Player X works well with the younger guys or has proven to be able to play better in the role they want him for. Maybe non-Known Player Y has a substance abuse problem, or continually shows up late to practices and games. Maybe Known Player X is a master at stealing signs or does something else that enhances his value. Maybe non-Known Player Y has an ego problem and only wants to sign if promised a starting spot.