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Sea Ray
08-16-2012, 11:11 AM
As a Reds fan who followed Dunn from the day he was drafted, I'm surprised that he is the HR or nothing guy that he is because he never was like that in the minors. I'm disappointed that he became a swing for the fences guy at the mahor league evel. I never would have projected him to have a major league career where he hits in the low .200s

wolfboy
08-16-2012, 11:17 AM
Dunn is in decline. At his peak, he was known as much for bad defense and strikeouts as he was for his power. He has no playoff heroics and unfortunately had an epic slump during one of the few playoff chases he was afforded. He has no real honors amongst her peers, managing only two AS appearances. Heck he doesn't even have a silver slugger.

As sabermetrics creeps more and more into the discussion of the hall, his chances only get smaller.

He'd better eclipse 600 HRs and probably by a good margin to just even enter the conversation.

Based on what? He's doing the exact same thing this year he's always done. Lots of strikeouts, lots of homers, lots of walks. AD's argument was based on counting stats, and I don't see him declining there at all. I see no reason why he can't continue to DH and put up similar production for at least a few more years.

puca
08-16-2012, 11:39 AM
I cant' imagine Dunn will ever even sniff the HOF. I was one of the guy's biggest fans while he was in Cincy and still love the guy. But he's not a HOF player, and not even that close if you ask me.

Dunn has a very unique place in my fandom. He was my favorite player for much of the lost decade, and so much nonsense was heaped on him by the likes thoughtless wonks like Marty Brenneman, that I wound up constantly defending him to the point it might have appeared like I thought he was a HOF'er.

At the same time and even as much as I like the guy, he's also perhaps my biggest disappointment of the last decade. I know it's unfair to compare him to Pujols or to what Votto is now, but I still can't help but think he underachieved in his career. My disappointment lied in the fact that he didn't seem to get much better than when he first came up at 21 years old. I never expected him to become Pujols, but I do think he could have been better than he was. I have some theories about why he never progressed to what many thought he'd be, but it's pure speculation and moot at this point. I love the guy, but he was still a disappointment to me.

I totally agree with this. :thumbup:

RedsBaron
08-16-2012, 11:48 AM
I cant' imagine Dunn will ever even sniff the HOF. I was one of the guy's biggest fans while he was in Cincy and still love the guy. But he's not a HOF player, and not even that close if you ask me.

Dunn has a very unique place in my fandom. He was my favorite player for much of the lost decade, and so much nonsense was heaped on him by the likes thoughtless wonks like Marty Brenneman, that I wound up constantly defending him to the point it might have appeared like I thought he was a HOF'er.

At the same time and even as much as I like the guy, he's also perhaps my biggest disappointment of the last decade. I know it's unfair to compare him to Pujols or to what Votto is now, but I still can't help but think he underachieved in his career. My disappointment lied in the fact that he didn't seem to get much better than when he first came up at 21 years old. I never expected him to become Pujols, but I do think he could have been better than he was. I have some theories about why he never progressed to what many thought he'd be, but it's pure speculation and moot at this point. I love the guy, but he was still a disappointment to me.

I agree.
Dunn in the minors appeared as if he would be more than just a "true outcomes" hitter. In his first year of minor league play, in a rookie league, he hit for a .288 average. After that, in two different years in Class A he batted .307 and .281. In his last year in the minors, he hit .343 in Class AA and .329 in Class AAA. He struck out some, but at the rate of a typical power hitter, and projected to be a guy who would probably fan 100+ times a season in the majors, but not 200+ times.
Dunn was durable and I liked him, but I was also disappointed by him. Maybe he didn't work hard enough, maybe he just wasn't really as good as he projected.

Wonderful Monds
08-16-2012, 12:10 PM
Based on what? He's doing the exact same thing this year he's always done. Lots of strikeouts, lots of homers, lots of walks. AD's argument was based on counting stats, and I don't see him declining there at all. I see no reason why he can't continue to DH and put up similar production for at least a few more years.

He absolutely cratered last year, and this year is hitting right above .200. He already didn't have much to lose in his contact ability, but this is now 2 years in a row where it's been sort of below the line of acceptable. If it goes anymore, he's going to end up having a bunch more seasons like last year.

So yeah, two years in a row below his career averages. I'd call that a decline in my book.

RedsManRick
08-16-2012, 12:14 PM
I agree that Dunn won't be a HOFer. He's one of the great HR hitters of his generation, but he's not a great hitter. While he's a step up from Rob Deer and Dave Kingman, he's no Jim Thome. His lack of contact simply keeps him from putting up the kind of elite OBP and SLG numbers that would set him a step above the typical "good" player.

Here's a fact that might surprise some people: Edgar Martinez has a career SLG higher than Adam Dunn. Or perhaps more illuminating: Among the 250 batters that have 3000+ PA since 2001, Adam Dunn's wOBA is 32nd, behind the likes of Brian Giles, Derrek Lee and JD Drew. All of those guys had some defensive value, particluarly Drew, and none of them will sniff the HOF.

I do think it's unfortunate that he stayed in the NL so long. His disastrous fielding has, according to fWAR, sapped him of 13 "wins" over his career. If he's able to play at a good level for another 4 or 5 years andhad he been appropriately used as a DH, he could be in that 50 WAR territory for his career. Edgar Martinez and Mark McGwire are both at 70. Frank Thomas is at 76. A better modern day comp might be David Ortiz.

Adam Dunn will hold a special place in both Reds and MLB history. But that place should not be and will not be the Hall of Fame.

bucksfan2
08-16-2012, 12:14 PM
Who thinks of Dunn as one of the best players of his generation?

Adam Dunn has made 2 All Star games. He has never finished higher than 21st in MVP voting. He set the record for strikeouts in a season. Has played DH for the better half of the past two years and was awful in the field prior to that. He also put up a .159/.292/.277 OPS .569 as a 31 year old. Those aren't HOF attributes.

Dunn is a nice player but he has never been in the top 5 of his position over the course of his career. He has never been considered a MVP candidate and hasn't been on many winning teams (not his fault). He is a unique player but he isn't anywhere near a HOF player.

Crumbley
08-16-2012, 12:18 PM
The RBI criticism earlier was really strange, he's 7th in the AL. He produces by any offensive metric besides average.

wolfboy
08-16-2012, 12:18 PM
He absolutely cratered last year, and this year is hitting right above .200. He already didn't have much to lose in his contact ability, but this is now 2 years in a row where it's been sort of below the line of acceptable. If it goes anymore, he's going to end up having a bunch more seasons like last year.

So yeah, two years in a row below his career averages. I'd call that a decline in my book.

I said he's putting up counting stats this year in line with what he's put up over his career. Specifically, the counting stats AD mentioned (HR, R, RBI) are entirely in line with his career norms. He's typically hit 35-40 HR in a season over his career. He has 34 this year. He's typically had between 80 and 100 runs per season over his career. This season he has 68. He typically has between 80 and 100 RBI per season. This year he has 81. While I'll admit that he's become much more of the three true outcomes player he's always been, I see only one reason why he won't be able to accumulate those three true outcomes for several more years: someone won't be willing to pay him to do it.

jojo
08-16-2012, 12:29 PM
Based on what?


Year Age AVG OBP SLG wOBA Krate Bbrate
07-'09 27-29 0.256 0.390 0.532 0.396 25.9 17.4
10-'12 30-32 0.214 0.332 0.444 0.339 33.1 14.2

Big Klu
08-16-2012, 12:51 PM
I don't know if he will play to age 38-40. Men that size (in terms of both height and weight) often develop knee problems in their late 30's and early 40's, if not sooner. I'm not saying that there is no way he could be productive in 5-7 years, but his age and size are against him.

MWM
08-16-2012, 12:54 PM
I agree.
Dunn in the minors appeared as if he would be more than just a "true outcomes" hitter. In his first year of minor league play, in a rookie league, he hit for a .288 average. After that, in two different years in Class A he batted .307 and .281. In his last year in the minors, he hit .343 in Class AA and .329 in Class AAA. He struck out some, but at the rate of a typical power hitter, and projected to be a guy who would probably fan 100+ times a season in the majors, but not 200+ times.
Dunn was durable and I liked him, but I was also disappointed by him. Maybe he didn't work hard enough, maybe he just wasn't really as good as he projected.

This pure speculation on my part so take it for what it's worth.....probably not much. But I've always wondered if he was affected by all these different coaches trying to "fix" him and turn him into someone he wasn't. You could visibly see him trying to change things at the plate with each new hitting coach that was trotted in to fix Adam Dunn.

The belief was he needed to cut down his strike outs and just make more contact; he needed to "expand the strikezone" (an idea I loathe) in certain situations to "drive in runs"; I even heard some say he needed to walk less and swing more. Coaches and media guys would talk about what they were trying to get him to do and then you'd watch him at the plate and it seemed to me that he was trying to do those things. He constantly heard, and from all kinds of sources, all the things wrong with him as a hitter. I think he heard it and even believed it.

Again, just my own crazy theory, but I think if he would have just been left alone to be the hitter he was naturally we would have seen a better Adam Dunn at the plate. Would he have been Pujols good? No way. But I think we would have seen a .265/.400/.570 player a lot more consistently. I thought he would for sure be a .400 OB guy in his career based on his minor league numbers and what we saw the first year and a half he was up. That's when the tinkering started.

Hitting is such a reactionary/instinctive process. Some players can change how they hit, but I think most can't (Votto is an example of someone who can). Once you take a guy like Dunn and start sending him to the plate with ideas in his head, it's going to affect him. He was never a very cerebral player to begin with. I wonder if he was coming up now in the post-Moneyball era if he wouldn't be better off as his skillset would have been understood much better and potentially not tinkered with.

wolfboy
08-16-2012, 03:06 PM
Year Age AVG OBP SLG wOBA Krate Bbrate
07-'09 27-29 0.256 0.390 0.532 0.396 25.9 17.4
10-'12 30-32 0.214 0.332 0.444 0.339 33.1 14.2



And yet, while his rate stats have declined , his counting stats in HR, RBI, and R are dead on his career norms. I see no reason to think his ability to rack up three true outcomes has declined one bit.

RedsBaron
08-16-2012, 03:12 PM
The belief was he needed to cut down his strike outs and just make more contact; he needed to "expand the strikezone" (an idea I loathe) in certain situations to "drive in runs"; I even heard some say he needed to walk less and swing more.


That was always a crazy idea. Ted Williams preached against the idea of expanding a strikezone and swinging at balls outside the strikezone, but then what did Teddy Ballgame know about hitting a baseball? ;)

wolfboy
08-16-2012, 03:14 PM
I'll also add that if you take a look at last year, his problem was pretty clear: he hit the ball in the air, it just didn't leave the yard. Hard to reach one of those three true outcomes (HR) if you don't have the power to back it up. At the end of last season, I'd say there were true questions as to whether he'd lost his power. He's answered those questions this year, so I don't see any reason to believe he's lost his ability to continue what he's always done.


Season Team GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH%

2009 Nationals 0.64 20.5 % 31.0 % 48.5 % 7.8 % 21.1 % 10.4 % 0.0 %

2010 Nationals 0.67 17.9 % 33.1 % 49.0 % 6.7 % 21.3 % 6.7 % 0.0 %

2011 White Sox 0.68 20.0 % 32.5 % 47.5 % 13.2 % 9.6 % 0.0 % 0.0 %

2012 White Sox 0.75 24.1 % 32.5 % 43.4 % 8.3 % 31.5 % 4.9 % 0.0 %

Total - - - 0.71 19.9 % 33.3 % 46.8 % 10.4 % 22.0 % 4.7 % 0.0 %

jojo
08-16-2012, 03:17 PM
I'll also add that if you take a look at last year, his problem was pretty clear: he hit the ball in the air, it just didn't leave the yard. Hard to reach one of those three true outcomes (HR) if you don't have the power to back it up. At the end of last season, I'd say there were true questions as to whether he'd lost his power. He's answered those questions this year, so I don't see any reason to believe he's lost his ability to continue what he's always done.


Season Team GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH%

2009 Nationals 0.64 20.5 % 31.0 % 48.5 % 7.8 % 21.1 % 10.4 % 0.0 %

2010 Nationals 0.67 17.9 % 33.1 % 49.0 % 6.7 % 21.3 % 6.7 % 0.0 %

2011 White Sox 0.68 20.0 % 32.5 % 47.5 % 13.2 % 9.6 % 0.0 % 0.0 %

2012 White Sox 0.75 24.1 % 32.5 % 43.4 % 8.3 % 31.5 % 4.9 % 0.0 %

Total - - - 0.71 19.9 % 33.3 % 46.8 % 10.4 % 22.0 % 4.7 % 0.0 %

Other than his contact rate, OBP, and SLG are all trending down, sure.

vaticanplum
08-16-2012, 03:17 PM
As of now, I would say Dunn is a long shot for the HOF, partly because of metrics and partly because of perception.

But I don't see how anyone can say with certainty right now that he *isn't* getting in. He could easily have five more productive years. He could have 10 if he stays in the AL. I could see his career winding down very much like Thome's. And I've said it til I'm blue in the face, but his health is an important factor in this. He's not the unbreakable man the way he used to be, but he still tends to rack up an extraordinary number of games each year. That's going to add up.

As many have pointed out, reports of his decline seem to not be backed up. Last year, yes. But he has bounced back tremendously this year and his numbers don't seem to be falling from his norms at all.

The other unpredictable circumstance, which has nothing to do with him, is anything else that may come up in public perception in the coming years. If big steroid users are revealed, and he remains clean, it could have a huge impact. (The converse -- him being discovered to be a user, e.g. -- would also be a factor of course.) And there could be something else that comes up that there's no way for us to predict. I just think it's extremely premature to say he has no chance. He's durable, and he's 32 years old. He could have one more year left, or he could have a third or more of his career in front of him.

Caveat Emperor
08-16-2012, 03:21 PM
If he can manage to hit 550+ clean HRs -- by no means a lock or even a likelihood at this point, but still within the realm of possibility -- there will absolutely be serious conversation about him as a HOF player.

No matter what you think about the rest of his game, that particular counting stat has historically meant an automatic ticket to Cooperstown. At that point, the burden of proof should shift to the defense to enumerate convincing evidence as to why he SHOULDN'T be in the hall, IMO.

jojo
08-16-2012, 03:22 PM
If he can manage to hit 500+ clean HRs -- by no means a lock or even a likelihood at this point, but still within the realm of possibility -- there will absolutely be serious conversation about him as a HOF player.

No matter what you think about the rest of his game, that particular counting stat has historically meant an automatic ticket to Cooperstown. At that point, the burden of proof should shift to the defense to enumerate convincing evidence as to why he SHOULDN'T be in the hall, IMO.

Because just hitting homeruns isn't good enough?

Always Red
08-16-2012, 03:24 PM
I don't know if he will play to age 38-40. Men that size (in terms of both height and weight) often develop knee problems in their late 30's and early 40's, if not sooner. I'm not saying that there is no way he could be productive in 5-7 years, but his age and size are against him.

This is it^

I love Dunner, but he's just reaching 400HR; he's not gonna sniff 600, and may not get to 500. He's not getting any younger, and certainly not getting any smaller.

He's a slugger, pure and simple. I think there are very few pitches he can actually handle, and he knows that and watches until he gets one he can and then slugs it (reminds me of mth123's sig line). Or walks or strikes out. That makes him a great complimentary player, but not a HoF'er, or in most years, even an all star. I also thought he had a shot at the Hall when he left Cincy with the 40HR streak intact...

Caveat Emperor
08-16-2012, 03:31 PM
Because just hitting homeruns isn't good enough?


Rank Player (yrs, age) Home Runs
1. Barry Bonds (22) 762
2. Hank Aaron+ (23) 755
3. Babe Ruth+ (22) 714
4. Willie Mays+ (22) 660
5. Alex Rodriguez (19, 36) 644
6. Ken Griffey (22) 630
7. Jim Thome (22, 41) 611
8. Sammy Sosa (18) 609
9. Frank Robinson+ (21) 586
10. Mark McGwire (16) 583
11. Harmon Killebrew+ (22) 573
12. Rafael Palmeiro (20) 569
13. Reggie Jackson+ (21) 563
14. Manny Ramirez (19, 40) 555
15. Mike Schmidt+ (18) 548
16. Mickey Mantle+ (18) 536
17. Jimmie Foxx+ (20) 534
18. Willie McCovey+ (22) 521
Frank Thomas (19) 521
Ted Williams+ (19) 521
21. Ernie Banks+ (19) 512
Eddie Mathews+ (17) 512
23. Mel Ott+ (22) 511
24. Gary Sheffield (22) 509
25. Eddie Murray+ (21) 504

Bold players are HOFers.
Red players are suspected or admitted PED users.
Green players are active or not yet HOF eligible.

Of the green players, I'd imagine that Griffey is a lock for the HOF, Thome is an extremely strong candidate, Frank Thomas is a good candidate, and Gary Sheffield is an on-the-fence candidate.

Point being, once you reach 500 HRs, as long as you're clean there's a fairly good chance you're going to the Hall regardless of other circumstances.

vaticanplum
08-16-2012, 03:34 PM
Point being, once you reach 500 HRs, as long as you're clean there's a fairly good chance you're going to the Hall regardless of other circumstances.

There are only two eligible players who have hit 500 homers and are not in the Hall: McGwire and Palmeiro. I would agree that hitting a lot of homers alone does seem to be enough. It doesn't necessarily make for a well-rounded player, but let's not get complacent regarding just how difficult it is to reach that benchmark.

RedsBaron
08-16-2012, 03:37 PM
Bid McPhee made the HOF a mere century after he last played, so probably any halfway plausible HOF candidate has at least some chance of being inducted. Never say never and all that....;)

jojo
08-16-2012, 03:44 PM
Rank Player (yrs, age) Home Runs
1. Barry Bonds (22) 762
2. Hank Aaron+ (23) 755
3. Babe Ruth+ (22) 714
4. Willie Mays+ (22) 660
5. Alex Rodriguez (19, 36) 644
6. Ken Griffey (22) 630
7. Jim Thome (22, 41) 611
8. Sammy Sosa (18) 609
9. Frank Robinson+ (21) 586
10. Mark McGwire (16) 583
11. Harmon Killebrew+ (22) 573
12. Rafael Palmeiro (20) 569
13. Reggie Jackson+ (21) 563
14. Manny Ramirez (19, 40) 555
15. Mike Schmidt+ (18) 548
16. Mickey Mantle+ (18) 536
17. Jimmie Foxx+ (20) 534
18. Willie McCovey+ (22) 521
Frank Thomas (19) 521
Ted Williams+ (19) 521
21. Ernie Banks+ (19) 512
Eddie Mathews+ (17) 512
23. Mel Ott+ (22) 511
24. Gary Sheffield (22) 509
25. Eddie Murray+ (21) 504

Bold players are HOFers.
Red players are suspected or admitted PED users.
Green players are active or not yet HOF eligible.

Of the green players, I'd imagine that Griffey is a lock for the HOF, Thome is an extremely strong candidate, Frank Thomas is a good candidate, and Gary Sheffield is an on-the-fence candidate.

Point being, once you reach 500 HRs, as long as you're clean there's a fairly good chance you're going to the Hall regardless of other circumstances.

How many of those guys were one trick ponies with little to distinguish themselves as exceptional amongst their peers?

wolfboy
08-16-2012, 03:46 PM
Other than his contact rate, OBP, and SLG are all trending down, sure.


If I read you correctly jojo, you're saying that he's less of a complete hitter. I don't disagree with you there; however, the original premise you seemed to disagree with was whether he could continue to rack up three counting stats (HR, R, RBI) that could serve as the basis for HOF consideration.

To that end, you have to ask whether his decline in rate stats is hurting his ability to rack up those counting stats. I really don't think it does. As long as he's able to hit HR, he will get an appreciable amount of R and RBI. While his OBP and SLG are lower, that hasn't resulted in less HR. His SLG is down because he hardly hits any doubles. The lower OBP seems to be a product of the severely low BA (less hits aside from HR). Yet, the HR are just about the same and his .ISO hasn't changed much either. When he makes contact, he's still knocking the tar out of the ball. I'd argue that as long as he has that raw power, he will hit a high number of HR. As long as he hits a high number of HR, he will get a decent amount of R and RBI (largely due to his own efforts). I think there's no question he's declined as a complete hitter (not that he really ever was one). At the same time, I see no reason to believe he can't continue to rack up those three counting stats.

wolfboy
08-16-2012, 03:49 PM
Because just hitting homeruns isn't good enough?

I absolutely agree with you that it isn't enough; however, that's different from saying he won't even be in the conversation. Some still place value on the traditional counting stats. He's unquestionably been able to rack those up at a high rate (without doing anything else all that well).

Crumbley
08-16-2012, 04:00 PM
Dunn does two things really well: hit homers and walk. To be a HoF guy, he will have to do both for a really long time. 500 homers won't do it. 600 has to put a guy in the discussion.

jojo
08-16-2012, 04:05 PM
If I read you correctly jojo, you're saying that he's less of a complete hitter. I don't disagree with you there; however, the original premise you seemed to disagree with was whether he could continue to rack up three counting stats (HR, R, RBI) that could serve as the basis for HOF consideration.

To that end, you have to ask whether his decline in rate stats is hurting his ability to rack up those counting stats. I really don't think it does. As long as he's able to hit HR, he will get an appreciable amount of R and RBI. While his OBP and SLG are lower, that hasn't resulted in less HR. His SLG is down because he hardly hits any doubles. The lower OBP seems to be a product of the severely low BA (less hits aside from HR). Yet, the HR are just about the same and his .ISO hasn't changed much either. When he makes contact, he's still knocking the tar out of the ball. I'd argue that as long as he has that raw power, he will hit a high number of HR. As long as he hits a high number of HR, he will get a decent amount of R and RBI (largely due to his own efforts). I think there's no question he's declined as a complete hitter (not that he really ever was one). At the same time, I see no reason to believe he can't continue to rack up those three counting stats.

I'm saying his last three years represent a significant decline in offensive worth compared to the previous three...

AmarilloRed
08-16-2012, 04:06 PM
I think the benchmark is higher for players that played in the Steroid Era, clean or not. I think if Sosa is kept out, it'll be hard for the writers to vote Dunn in with less HRs.

RedsManRick
08-16-2012, 04:19 PM
Point being, once you reach 500 HRs, as long as you're clean there's a fairly good chance you're going to the Hall regardless of other circumstances.

I'm not sure historical precedence is the best way to assess Dunn's chances when he's basically historically.

If he plays the 3 more years to hit 500 HRs, he'll likely become the all-time strikeout leader at around the same time.

I wonder, how many HOFers have a career batting average under .250? And how many of those had negative defensive value?

His combination of horrible defense, horrible contact, great power and significant longevity just hasn't really been -- not to these extremes.

Caveat Emperor
08-16-2012, 04:22 PM
I think the benchmark is higher for players that played in the Steroid Era, clean or not. I think if Sosa is kept out, it'll be hard for the writers to vote Dunn in with less HRs.

There's never been a credible accusation of Dunn as a PED guy. His HR numbers have also remained fairly consistent across the years, even as testing procedures were intensified.

To that point, Dunn's HR/PA ratio this season is 6.8% -- the exact same as it was in 2004 when he hit 46 HRs and OPS'd north of .950.

westofyou
08-16-2012, 04:22 PM
Of all the position players in the Hall of Fame, Ray Schalk's .253 career batting average is the lowest.

Combine that with a lack of power (.311 SLG, 11 career home runs), and well....

Caveat Emperor
08-16-2012, 04:26 PM
I'm not sure historical precedence is the best way to assess Dunn's chances when he's basically historically.

If he plays the 3 more years to hit 500 HRs, he'll likely become the all-time strikeout leader at around the same time.

I wonder, how many HOFers have a career batting average under .250? And how many of those had negative defensive value?

His combination of horrible defense, horrible contact, great power and significant longevity just hasn't really been -- not to these extremes.

I agree -- I've never said that I think Dunn should be in the HOF, but I absolutely think he needs to be a topic of conversation if he hits 500+ HRs. To just dismiss his case outright based on the "Only hits HRs, can't field his position" grossly oversimplifies the fascinating case he presents to voters.

At 550+ HRs, it becomes really interesting IMO.

jojo
08-16-2012, 04:37 PM
I agree -- I've never said that I think Dunn should be in the HOF, but I absolutely think he needs to be a topic of conversation if he hits 500+ HRs. To just dismiss his case outright based on the "Only hits HRs, can't field his position" grossly oversimplifies the fascinating case he presents to voters.

At 550+ HRs, it becomes really interesting IMO.

Thats the point though-it's not that interesting of a case.

Johnny Footstool
08-16-2012, 04:42 PM
I love Adam Dunn, but he's not a Hall of Fame candidate, even with 500 HR. He was never the best at what he did, and he was never universally beloved. As we can see from this thread, he's way too polarizing a figure. If even Reds fans can't agree that he belongs in the HOF, there's no way the BBWA votes him in.

Caveat Emperor
08-16-2012, 04:49 PM
Thats the point though-it's not that interesting of a case.

You don't think the potential for him being the first person to miss the HOF after hitting over 500 HRs with no PED clouds hanging over his head is interesting?

Or, potentially (at 550 HRs), being one of the Top 15 HR hitters of all time (Top 10, if you remove PED users from the list) and missing the HOF?

jojo
08-16-2012, 04:54 PM
You don't think the potential for him being the first person to miss the HOF after hitting over 500 HRs with no PED clouds hanging over his head is interesting?

Or, potentially (at 550 HRs), being one of the Top 15 HR hitters of all time (Top 10, if you remove PED users from the list) and missing the HOF?

No. I don't find the case for Adam Dunn to be that compelling.

jojo
08-16-2012, 05:06 PM
You don't think the potential for him being the first person to miss the HOF after hitting over 500 HRs with no PED clouds hanging over his head is interesting?

Or, potentially (at 550 HRs), being one of the Top 15 HR hitters of all time (Top 10, if you remove PED users from the list) and missing the HOF?

dreaded DP.......K's are preferable.

bucksfan2
08-16-2012, 05:12 PM
You don't think the potential for him being the first person to miss the HOF after hitting over 500 HRs with no PED clouds hanging over his head is interesting?

Or, potentially (at 550 HRs), being one of the Top 15 HR hitters of all time (Top 10, if you remove PED users from the list) and missing the HOF?

Was Adam Dunn ever great?

Did he ever put together a great season?

Before Palmero got caught using PED's people classified him as complier and said he would be boarderline at best HOF. IMO he was a better all around player than Dunn, heck he even one a gold glove :p

RedsBaron
08-16-2012, 05:18 PM
Of all the position players in the Hall of Fame, Ray Schalk's .253 career batting average is the lowest.

Combine that with a lack of power (.311 SLG, 11 career home runs), and well....

Maybe Dunn needs the White Sox to make it to the World Series and then throw the Series when bribed by gamblers, while Dunn remains clean. That worked for Schalk and got him into the HOF by being a clean member of the Black Sox.

wolfboy
08-16-2012, 05:22 PM
You don't think the potential for him being the first person to miss the HOF after hitting over 500 HRs with no PED clouds hanging over his head is interesting?

Or, potentially (at 550 HRs), being one of the Top 15 HR hitters of all time (Top 10, if you remove PED users from the list) and missing the HOF?

I think there's more to a hitter than HR, so I disagree that he'd be one of the best 15 hitters of all time, even if he hits 600 HR. If we're talking about the Hall of Fame of Home Run Derby, you put his plaque on the front door. There will be some conversation about his HOF credentials when it's all said and done, but ultimately, I think they'll get it right and say no thanks.

vaticanplum
08-16-2012, 05:47 PM
I love Adam Dunn, but he's not a Hall of Fame candidate, even with 500 HR. He was never the best at what he did, and he was never universally beloved. As we can see from this thread, he's way too polarizing a figure. If even Reds fans can't agree that he belongs in the HOF, there's no way the BBWA votes him in.

If he helps, say, lead the White Sox to a World Series -- not unthinkable at this point -- he'll be pretty freaking beloved.

I think that's my major point: it's too early to be having this conversation.

Johnny Footstool
08-16-2012, 06:19 PM
If he helps, say, lead the White Sox to a World Series -- not unthinkable at this point -- he'll be pretty freaking beloved.

...in South Chicago, yes. That's not the Kirby Puckett-level of adulation and respect I think Dunn would need.

If he got traded to the Cubs and helped them put the billy goat to rest, it would be a different story.


I think that's my major point: it's too early to be having this conversation.

He's well past the halfway point in his career. I don't think it's too early.

AtomicDumpling
08-17-2012, 01:18 AM
Why post such an inflammatory paragraph? Do you just want to rile up the board? He clearly said that Dunn was not responsible for the lost decade but you just HAD to throw that last paragraph in there anyway. Did you notice that he said this:



He never said that Dunn sucked yet you start your post with that...Shame on you:thumbdown:

You crack me up. :laugh:

Did you read the whole thread before you made your attack post? Did you notice the things he said earlier? My comments clearly addressed his collective posts.

Just because you don't agree with me doesn't mean you have to make nasty posts like that. I am entitled to my opinion just like you guys are, the difference is I backed my argument up with persuasive stats. Feel free to disagree. I guess you have to attack the poster if you can't beat his argument. I will take that as a compliment in some twisted way. Shame on me? Give me a break. :laugh: Thanks for making my day. :thumbup:

AtomicDumpling
08-17-2012, 01:25 AM
You don't think the potential for him being the first person to miss the HOF after hitting over 500 HRs with no PED clouds hanging over his head is interesting?

Or, potentially (at 550 HRs), being one of the Top 15 HR hitters of all time (Top 10, if you remove PED users from the list) and missing the HOF?

If it wasn't interesting there wouldn't be hundreds of posts in any thread that discusses it.

If Dunn ever gets to 550 Home Runs he is a slam dunk for the HOF. It may take a number of years for him to get elected and it may even go to the Veterans Committee, but if he reaches those statistical thresholds he will get in. Of course he still has to be a very productive hitter for at least 3-5 more years, then maybe be a part-timer for awhile like Jim Thome or Tony Perez did. It will be quite a few years before we find out one way or the other.

redsfandan
08-17-2012, 07:12 AM
You crack me up. :laugh:

Did you read the whole thread before you made your attack post? Did you notice the things he said earlier? My comments clearly addressed his collective posts.

Just because you don't agree with me doesn't mean you have to make nasty posts like that. I am entitled to my opinion just like you guys are, the difference is I backed my argument up with persuasive stats. Feel free to disagree. I guess you have to attack the poster if you can't beat his argument. I will take that as a compliment in some twisted way. Shame on me? Give me a break. :laugh: Thanks for making my day. :thumbup:

Ah, I see you're taking the high road. Well, ok, interesting post. Adds alot. For what it's worth, I thought this part of your previous post was interesting:

"Ahh, the old Dunn isn't as good as Votto (or Pujols) so therefore he sucks argument. Classic"

:rolleyes:

redsfandan
08-17-2012, 08:04 AM
If Dunn ever gets to 550 Home Runs he is a slam dunk for the HOF.

He'll be in the discussion but a slam dunk? I don't know about that. The typical HOFer has things on his resume that show that he was one of the best when he played.

MVP awards
Silver sluggers
Gold gloves
All-star appearances
Hank Aaron award
Roberto Clemente award
etc etc etc

As far as I know Adam Dunn hasn't won any awards while playing in the majors. At least not any major awards that I know of. Not only has he not won any kind of mvp award he's never even finished in THE TOP 20 of the mvp voting. Not once. I'd expect a potential HOFer to appear in the top 10 of the mvp vote at least a couple times and in the top 20 at least a couple more times. Not Dunn. Also no silver sluggers. Negative marks for defense so no gold gloves. ...

What he does have is TWO all-star appearances. That's it. Shouldn't one of the best players in baseball have more than only 2 all-star appearances over his first 12 years?

Here's the kicker, Dunn is known for home runs more than anything else. Know how many home run titles he's won? Zero. Not a SINGLE one. He's never led the league in rbi either. You can say that it's cuz of the teams he was on but when he's on the ballot that'll just sound like an excuse (and not a good enough one to never lead in either category even once when power is what you're known for).

What he has lead the league in is walks (once) and strike outs (three times). He's also led the league in errors (twice among all outfielders and four times among all leftfielders). Although there's probably an excuse for that too.

Right now, he's on track to get his first home run title. If I were you I'd be pulling for him to get it cuz, believe it or not, he might need that kind of thing to help his case for the HOF.

Sea Ray
08-17-2012, 09:46 AM
You crack me up. :laugh:

Did you read the whole thread before you made your attack post? Did you notice the things he said earlier? My comments clearly addressed his collective posts.

Just because you don't agree with me doesn't mean you have to make nasty posts like that. I am entitled to my opinion just like you guys are, the difference is I backed my argument up with persuasive stats. Feel free to disagree. I guess you have to attack the poster if you can't beat his argument. I will take that as a compliment in some twisted way. Shame on me? Give me a break. :laugh: Thanks for making my day. :thumbup:

My posts on Adam Dunn never include the word "sucks". Your post should be the poster child for why Adam Dunn subjects get out of hand here on Redszone.

Sea Ray
08-17-2012, 09:49 AM
Ah, I see you're taking the high road. Well, ok, interesting post. Adds alot. For what it's worth, I thought this part of your previous post was interesting:

"Ahh, the old Dunn isn't as good as Votto (or Pujols) so therefore he sucks argument. Classic"

:rolleyes:

If he wanted to take the high road he'd have acknowledged that the post he was ranting about stated that Dunn is not the reason the Reds lost. That's a very pertinent point

Patrick Bateman
08-17-2012, 10:49 AM
I'm a Dunn fan, but he honestly has never been a HOF calibre player. If he reaches those thresholds, I think he is an extreme outlier, that he just would happen to be the first non-superstar capable of reaching them because of his particular skillset. There would be plenty of better hitters out there that can't reach those plateaus because they build their offensive value on much different (and not worse) ways.

Because of his holes at the plate that has held him back from being elite, and because he has always played a very easy position exceptionally poorly, its difficult to build a serious case that puts him in elite company IMO>

mdccclxix
08-17-2012, 11:12 AM
For Dunn to hit 600 HR and not get in the HOF is just his style. Book it.

Danny Serafini
08-17-2012, 11:44 AM
If Dunn ever gets to 550 Home Runs he is a slam dunk for the HOF. It may take a number of years for him to get elected and it may even go to the Veterans Committee,

If you have to wait 20 years and have the Veterans Committee put you in, you're not a slam dunk.

REDREAD
08-17-2012, 12:20 PM
I think a HOFer should have at least 2 seasons where they are undeniably one of the top 10 players in the league.. ie Barry Larkin 95-96, in addition to having a solid career..

That said, there's plenty of players in the HOF that do not meet that criteria, and got in purely by longevity numbers (Phil Neikro, Don Sutton, etc).

The HOF likes to have at least one person per year admitted in.

I give Dunn a 50/50 shot for making the HOF. If I had a vote, I probably wouldn't vote for him, but when you compare him against some of the other weak inductees, there's a reasonable case.

I guess I've reached the point where I really don't get upset about who is in the HOF anymore and who isn't :laugh: It's a tourist destination.. it kind of makes sense to lower the bar and let as many favorites in as possible.

RedsBaron
08-17-2012, 12:53 PM
If I had a vote, I probably wouldn't vote for him, but when you compare him against some of the other weak inductees, there's a reasonable case.


I wouldn't vote for Dunn either, but if he made the HOF he wouldn't be the worst selection there.

757690
08-17-2012, 12:56 PM
Just curiously, besides Ernie Banks, any other Hall of Famers (besides novelty ones like Tinkers, Evers and Chance) who never were on a true contending team during their prime?

westofyou
08-17-2012, 01:04 PM
Just curiously, besides Ernie Banks, any other Hall of Famers (besides novelty ones like Tinkers, Evers and Chance) who never were on a true contending team during their prime?


Her'e a handful

Luke Appling
Jim Bunning (kinda)
Elmer Flick
Harry Heilmann
Gaylord Perry
Dazzy Vance

757690
08-17-2012, 01:16 PM
Her'e a handful

Luke Appling
Jim Bunning (kinda)
Elmer Flick
Harry Heilmann
Gaylord Perry
Dazzy Vance

Thanks.

Heilmann is the best comp for Dunn, but he was much better than Dunn.

vaticanplum
08-17-2012, 01:35 PM
For Dunn to hit 600 HR and not get in the HOF is just his style. Book it.

Ha. Truth.

redsfandan
08-17-2012, 02:02 PM
I think a HOFer should have at least 2 seasons where they are undeniably one of the top 10 players in the league.. ie Barry Larkin 95-96, in addition to having a solid career..

That said, there's plenty of players in the HOF that do not meet that criteria, and got in purely by longevity numbers (Phil Neikro, Don Sutton, etc).
True, but Sutton at least had a 5 year stretch where he was in the top 5 of the cy young voting every year. And by the time Niekro was Dunns age he'd already had a year with a top 10 finish in the mvp vote. As a pitcher. While Dunn hasn't finished in the top 20 once. Dunn just hasn't ever been recognized among the best.

Plus, this thread has shown that there's doubt about how long Dunn will be playing. Who knows how the 2nd half of his baseball career will end. But, he's got work to do if he wants to be a 'slam dunk' HOF candidate.

REDREAD
08-17-2012, 02:43 PM
True, but Sutton at least had a 5 year stretch where he was in the top 5 of the cy young voting every year. And by the time Niekro was Dunns age he'd already had a year with a top 10 finish in the mvp vote. As a pitcher. While Dunn hasn't finished in the top 20 once. Dunn just hasn't ever been recognized among the best.

Plus, this thread has shown that there's doubt about how long Dunn will be playing. Who knows how the 2nd half of his baseball career will end. But, he's got work to do if he wants to be a 'slam dunk' HOF candidate.

Ok, maybe Sutton wasn't the best example, but IMO, Neikro is more of a longevity guy.. Sure Neikro had 3-4 very good seasons, and was a great innings eater.. but I consider him a borderline candidate.
Not really upset about him getting in though.

RedsManRick
08-17-2012, 03:18 PM
I agree -- I've never said that I think Dunn should be in the HOF, but I absolutely think he needs to be a topic of conversation if he hits 500+ HRs. To just dismiss his case outright based on the "Only hits HRs, can't field his position" grossly oversimplifies the fascinating case he presents to voters.

At 550+ HRs, it becomes really interesting IMO.

I think it becomes interesting if you think the HOF should include those "wow, this guy is historically good at something" guys -- without respect to just how important that thing was. It does not, however, justify his entrance from a production standpoint.

I think we should think of him like the power version of Vince Coleman, Willie Wilson or Otix Nixon. Now, power is much more valuable than speed, but the general concept works because it's not enough by itself. When he was at the absolute top of his game, he was an all-star. When he wasn't, his value cratered. He was absolutely elite at one particular thing and might even end up pretty high up on the career leaderboard. Since 1900, Coleman and Tim Raines are the only guys in the top 10 of career SBs who are not in the HOF -- and Raines should be in. I don't think anybody is arguing for Coleman to be put in.

For the sake of reference, here's Dunn compared to the 500 HR club across a range of metrics. I've sorted the list by WAR -- not because I think WAR is perfect -- but it is instructive. I would note, Dnun has the 4th worst wOBA on this list, so it's not like he's just getting treated unfairly because of the way WAR handles defense. Give him back those 13 wins and he'd still need another 7 or 8 years at his career average level of production to reach the bottom end of the HOF pool.

Among the 52 players who have hit 399 or more HRs (Dunn included), he's 41st in wOBA. Paul Konerko is 43rd.

Among the


Name G PA H HR BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld WAR
Babe Ruth 2503 10616 2873 714 19% 13% .348 .340 .342 .474 .690 .510 197 79 178
Barry Bonds 2976 12606 2935 762 20% 12% .309 .285 .298 .444 .607 .439 175 188 168
Willie Mays 2992 12493 3283 660 12% 12% .256 .299 .302 .384 .557 .413 157 185 163
Hank Aaron 3298 13940 3771 755 10% 10% .250 .291 .305 .374 .555 .405 154 98 151
Ted Williams 2292 9791 2654 521 21% 7% .289 .328 .344 .482 .634 .493 189 -29 140
Mickey Mantle 2401 9909 2415 536 18% 17% .259 .318 .298 .421 .557 .431 171 -44 123
Frank Robinson 2808 11743 2943 586 12% 13% .243 .295 .294 .389 .537 .406 155 25 116
Mel Ott 2730 11337 2876 511 15% 8% .229 .294 .304 .414 .533 .432 155 50 116
Alex Rodriguez 2491 11034 2872 644 11% 18% .262 .318 .301 .385 .563 .405 147 24 114
Jimmie Foxx 2317 9670 2646 534 15% 14% .284 .336 .325 .428 .609 .458 159 23 112
Mike Schmidt 2400 10062 2234 548 15% 19% .260 .280 .267 .380 .527 .395 146 127 111
Eddie Mathews 2391 10101 2315 512 14% 15% .238 .273 .271 .376 .509 .390 143 33 107
Ken Griffey Jr. 2668 11304 2781 630 12% 16% .254 .287 .284 .370 .538 .385 133 -39 84
Reggie Jackson 2820 11416 2584 563 12% 23% .228 .298 .262 .356 .490 .375 139 -25 81
Eddie Murray 3021 12817 3255 504 10% 12% .189 .291 .287 .359 .476 .365 128 61 79
Harmon Killebre 2435 9831 2086 573 16% 17% .252 .254 .256 .376 .509 .389 142 -79 78
Frank Thomas 2322 10075 2468 521 17% 14% .254 .304 .301 .419 .555 .416 154 -68 76
Willie McCovey 2588 9691 2211 521 14% 16% .245 .273 .270 .374 .515 .388 145 -78 76
Rafael Palmeiro 2822 12046 3020 569 11% 11% .226 .283 .288 .371 .515 .380 130 46 74
Ernie Banks 2528 10395 2583 512 7% 12% .225 .267 .274 .330 .500 .358 117 54 74
Jim Thome 2530 10277 2320 611 17% 25% .278 .321 .277 .402 .555 .405 144 -39 72
Mark McGwire 1866 7660 1626 583 17% 21% .325 .255 .263 .394 .588 .415 157 -30 71
Manny Ramirez 2299 9774 2574 555 14% 19% .273 .338 .312 .411 .585 .417 152 -157 70
Gary Sheffield 2573 10947 2689 509 14% 11% .222 .285 .292 .393 .514 .392 141 -205 67
Sammy Sosa 2340 9896 2408 609 9% 23% .261 .301 .273 .344 .534 .370 123 93 64
Adam Dunn 1686 7065 1398 399 16% 28% .261 .289 .241 .371 .501 .373 125 -128 26

defender
08-17-2012, 04:13 PM
Adam Dunn is not what he is. For most people he is an argument. New school v. traditional. As has been stated in the thread, defenders are put in the position of overvaluing him, while old school people bash him even though he has been very productive in terms of traditional counting stats.

Like Jay Bruce now, it seems the fans who were the most emotionally invested in him, see him as a disappointment. As has also been noted in the thread, he has not got the "fame" he deserves for his baseball accomplishments (in terms of AS games and MVP votes).

He has never played on a winner. If he had been on a contender for 6 or 7 years, his same numbers would be more "hall of fame" like. Not saying he would get in, but with 500 HR he would. At this point, 4 or so good years with a contending team increase his chances a lot. I don't think the White Sox are that team.

redsfandan
08-17-2012, 04:24 PM
Adam Dunn is not what he is. For most people he is an argument. New school v. traditional. As has been stated in the thread, defenders are put in the position of overvaluing him, while old school people bash him even though he has been very productive in terms of traditional counting stats.

Like Jay Bruce now, it seems the fans who were the most emotionally invested in him, see him as a disappointment. As has also been noted in the thread, he has not got the "fame" he deserves for his baseball accomplishments (in terms of AS games and MVP votes).

He has never played on a winner. If he had been on a contender for 6 or 7 years, his same numbers would be more "hall of fame" like. Not saying he would get in, but with 500 HR he would. At this point, 4 or so good years with a contending team increase his chances a lot. I don't think the White Sox are that team.

Yeah, I don't think so. There's too many things in that post that I disagree with. In a nutshell, Adam Dunn has never been one of the best players in the game. THAT is the main reason why the odds are against him getting into the HOF.

bucksfan2
08-17-2012, 04:28 PM
Yeah, I don't think so. There's too many things in that post that I disagree with. In a nutshell, Adam Dunn has never been one of the best players in the game. THAT is the main reason why the odds are against him getting into the HOF.

He was never a top tier player at his position let alone in the league. I don't see how you can consider than and then say he is a top tier player in the history of baseball.

redsfandan
08-17-2012, 04:31 PM
He was never a top tier player at his position let alone in the league. I don't see how you can consider than and then say he is a top tier player in the history of baseball.

I never did.

bucksfan2
08-17-2012, 04:45 PM
I never did.

I guess I was a greeing with your post. More of a general question for the pro-Dunn HOF.

westofyou
08-17-2012, 04:49 PM
Yeah, I don't think so. There's too many things in that post that I disagree with. In a nutshell, Adam Dunn has never been one of the best players in the game. THAT is the main reason why the odds are against him getting into the HOF.

Not sure what the odds are...

But I think IF he was in Cooperstown and it was not New Years Day, Thanksgiving or Christmas and was between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m. or 9pm in the summer that he could get in.

If he has a Jackson in his jeans and a few hours to kill.

redsfandan
08-17-2012, 04:50 PM
I guess I was a greeing with your post. More of a general question for the pro-Dunn HOF.

My mistake. I misread that.

osuceltic
08-17-2012, 04:59 PM
I think it becomes interesting if you think the HOF should include those "wow, this guy is historically good at something" guys -- without respect to just how important that thing was. It does not, however, justify his entrance from a production standpoint.

I think we should think of him like the power version of Vince Coleman, Willie Wilson or Otix Nixon. Now, power is much more valuable than speed, but the general concept works because it's not enough by itself. When he was at the absolute top of his game, he was an all-star. When he wasn't, his value cratered. He was absolutely elite at one particular thing and might even end up pretty high up on the career leaderboard. Since 1900, Coleman and Tim Raines are the only guys in the top 10 of career SBs who are not in the HOF -- and Raines should be in. I don't think anybody is arguing for Coleman to be put in.

For the sake of reference, here's Dunn compared to the 500 HR club across a range of metrics. I've sorted the list by WAR -- not because I think WAR is perfect -- but it is instructive. I would note, Dnun has the 4th worst wOBA on this list, so it's not like he's just getting treated unfairly because of the way WAR handles defense. Give him back those 13 wins and he'd still need another 7 or 8 years at his career average level of production to reach the bottom end of the HOF pool.

Among the 52 players who have hit 399 or more HRs (Dunn included), he's 41st in wOBA. Paul Konerko is 43rd.

Among the


Name G PA H HR BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld WAR
Babe Ruth 2503 10616 2873 714 19% 13% .348 .340 .342 .474 .690 .510 197 79 178
Barry Bonds 2976 12606 2935 762 20% 12% .309 .285 .298 .444 .607 .439 175 188 168
Willie Mays 2992 12493 3283 660 12% 12% .256 .299 .302 .384 .557 .413 157 185 163
Hank Aaron 3298 13940 3771 755 10% 10% .250 .291 .305 .374 .555 .405 154 98 151
Ted Williams 2292 9791 2654 521 21% 7% .289 .328 .344 .482 .634 .493 189 -29 140
Mickey Mantle 2401 9909 2415 536 18% 17% .259 .318 .298 .421 .557 .431 171 -44 123
Frank Robinson 2808 11743 2943 586 12% 13% .243 .295 .294 .389 .537 .406 155 25 116
Mel Ott 2730 11337 2876 511 15% 8% .229 .294 .304 .414 .533 .432 155 50 116
Alex Rodriguez 2491 11034 2872 644 11% 18% .262 .318 .301 .385 .563 .405 147 24 114
Jimmie Foxx 2317 9670 2646 534 15% 14% .284 .336 .325 .428 .609 .458 159 23 112
Mike Schmidt 2400 10062 2234 548 15% 19% .260 .280 .267 .380 .527 .395 146 127 111
Eddie Mathews 2391 10101 2315 512 14% 15% .238 .273 .271 .376 .509 .390 143 33 107
Ken Griffey Jr. 2668 11304 2781 630 12% 16% .254 .287 .284 .370 .538 .385 133 -39 84
Reggie Jackson 2820 11416 2584 563 12% 23% .228 .298 .262 .356 .490 .375 139 -25 81
Eddie Murray 3021 12817 3255 504 10% 12% .189 .291 .287 .359 .476 .365 128 61 79
Harmon Killebre 2435 9831 2086 573 16% 17% .252 .254 .256 .376 .509 .389 142 -79 78
Frank Thomas 2322 10075 2468 521 17% 14% .254 .304 .301 .419 .555 .416 154 -68 76
Willie McCovey 2588 9691 2211 521 14% 16% .245 .273 .270 .374 .515 .388 145 -78 76
Rafael Palmeiro 2822 12046 3020 569 11% 11% .226 .283 .288 .371 .515 .380 130 46 74
Ernie Banks 2528 10395 2583 512 7% 12% .225 .267 .274 .330 .500 .358 117 54 74
Jim Thome 2530 10277 2320 611 17% 25% .278 .321 .277 .402 .555 .405 144 -39 72
Mark McGwire 1866 7660 1626 583 17% 21% .325 .255 .263 .394 .588 .415 157 -30 71
Manny Ramirez 2299 9774 2574 555 14% 19% .273 .338 .312 .411 .585 .417 152 -157 70
Gary Sheffield 2573 10947 2689 509 14% 11% .222 .285 .292 .393 .514 .392 141 -205 67
Sammy Sosa 2340 9896 2408 609 9% 23% .261 .301 .273 .344 .534 .370 123 93 64
Adam Dunn 1686 7065 1398 399 16% 28% .261 .289 .241 .371 .501 .373 125 -128 26

Two things:

--- Power is more valuable than speed offensively, yes, but it often correlates to a huge disparity in defensive value -- especially between extremes like Raines and Dunn.

--- Talk about Dunn's counting stats potentially being HOF-worthy is centered on exactly one counting stat -- home runs. Look at some of those other numbers. Not even in the parking lot, let alone the ballpark. He really is an oddball. Great power. Good at taking a walk (but no one ever got elected to the HOF for taking a walk - nor should they). More or less terrible at everything else required of a baseball player.

WMR
08-17-2012, 05:02 PM
If he had spent his entire career on the yanks his counting stats would make him a sure fire HOFer. (along with the pub that goes along with playing in NYC)

AtomicDumpling
08-17-2012, 07:41 PM
Two things:

--- Power is more valuable than speed offensively, yes, but it often correlates to a huge disparity in defensive value -- especially between extremes like Raines and Dunn.

--- Talk about Dunn's counting stats potentially being HOF-worthy is centered on exactly one counting stat -- home runs. Look at some of those other numbers. Not even in the parking lot, let alone the ballpark. He really is an oddball. Great power. Good at taking a walk (but no one ever got elected to the HOF for taking a walk - nor should they). More or less terrible at everything else required of a baseball player.

If he plays long enough to get 550-600 home runs he will also have accumulated Runs Scored and RBI totals that will be HOF worthy.

It is all going to come down to the counting stats. Dunn has been able to put up high levels of HRs, RBIs and Runs while having a low BA and very good but not fantastic OPS and wOBA numbers. At the end of the day he was putting runs on the scoreboard with his hitting despite playing on mostly bad teams and getting very little support from his teammates. Dunn is a statistical oddity -- he is a very productive player despite faring poorly in the statistics that usually predict which players will be productive.

As we have seen, some people disagree but I think it is clear that IF he gets to 550 home runs and 1500 RBIs he will definitely get into the Hall of Fame. Of course he still has a long way to go to reach those numbers and he might not ever reach them, but if he does he will get in to the HOF eventually despite his low batting average and strikeouts. Like I have shown, if Dunn finishes up in the top 25 in career home runs and the top 100 in career RBIs and the top 100 in career Runs he is a slam dunk. If he doesn't reach those numbers he won't get in. Those numbers are definitely attainable for him, but he still has a long way to go. He is already 2/3 to 3/4 of the way there and he is only 32 years old. Another 4 or 5 healthy seasons should get him there. If he has any injuries or doesn't play every day it will take longer. It is going to be a matter of longevity like it was for many HOFers. There are a lot of guys in the Hall of Fame who were not as good as Adam Dunn, and there are a lot of guys not in the Hall of Fame that were better than Adam Dunn. Admission to the HOF is not 100% correlated to your skill as a player, there are many factors that go into it.

There are a variety of ways to punch your ticket to enshrinement in the Hall of Fame. Some guys get in by being a good player on great teams. Other guys get in by being elite, dominant players for a few years before fading quickly. Other guys get in by stacking up big totals over a long career despite never being one of the best players in the game. Dunn's hope is to be one of those guys who finish their careers with a ton of production totals even though he was never a superstar and never had the good fortune to play for one of the championship teams.

Slyder
08-17-2012, 08:28 PM
As a Reds fan who followed Dunn from the day he was drafted, I'm surprised that he is the HR or nothing guy that he is because he never was like that in the minors. I'm disappointed that he became a swing for the fences guy at the mahor league evel. I never would have projected him to have a major league career where he hits in the low .200s

Didn't some moron hitting coach in Cincy tell Dunn to try and pull everything rather than use his biggest asset (his strength)? At least thats what was rumored here at one point.

RedsManRick
08-17-2012, 11:10 PM
Two things:

--- Power is more valuable than speed offensively, yes, but it often correlates to a huge disparity in defensive value -- especially between extremes like Raines and Dunn.

--- Talk about Dunn's counting stats potentially being HOF-worthy is centered on exactly one counting stat -- home runs. Look at some of those other numbers. Not even in the parking lot, let alone the ballpark. He really is an oddball. Great power. Good at taking a walk (but no one ever got elected to the HOF for taking a walk - nor should they). More or less terrible at everything else required of a baseball player.

Yep. And that's why I pointed those things out in my previous posts.

fearofpopvol1
08-17-2012, 11:17 PM
I think if Dunn somehow is able to amass 600+ home runs, it will be hard to keep him out of the Hall of Fame. But I think 600 is the magic number. 550 might not be enough.

cincrazy
08-17-2012, 11:23 PM
Honestly, I think there's just as good of a shot he doesn't get to 500 than he gets to 600.

Brutus
08-17-2012, 11:24 PM
Not sure what the odds are...

But I think IF he was in Cooperstown and it was not New Years Day, Thanksgiving or Christmas and was between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m. or 9pm in the summer that he could get in.

If he has a Jackson in his jeans and a few hours to kill.

Yeah I see no reason why he can't get in the Hall... if he wants to buy a ticket.

I don't see any way the voters put him in unless he cracks 600. Right or wrong, these people are still very much traditional and look at things like batting average, RBI's, etc.

Personally, I don't think he deserves in the Hall when considering the whole package, but the voters are probably going to be even more simplistic than I would when thinking about it.

I truthfully am not sure he'll make it to 500, though. His strikeout rate the last two years has gone up so drastically, I'm not sure how much longer the Sox will be able to afford to keep him in the lineup. I don't anticipate him going another 3-4 years at this pace.

cincrazy
08-17-2012, 11:28 PM
If he gets to 500, he has a shot, IMO (and I'm not even sure I'd term it likely that he gets to 500). If he gets to 500, I think he's in. If he gets to 600, I KNOW he's in. But I don't see that happening. Dunn has this going for him: I think by the end of his career, people will appreciate his raw power more. He played in the tail end of the steroids era, and after the steroids era declined and drug testing kicked in, he still put up great HR numbers, proving to be one of the rare true power hitters of this era. That's the ONLY case he really has IMO. And if he sticks around long enough and is productive, it might be a good case.

He wouldn't have my vote if I had one. He's been a very good player. But I can't put him in the HOF.

CTA513
08-18-2012, 10:54 PM
He hit #400 tonight to left center and off a lefty.

Matt700wlw
08-19-2012, 01:43 AM
He hit #400 tonight to left center and off a lefty.

Is Bad Fundamentals still around?

Wonderful Monds
08-19-2012, 02:51 AM
If he plays long enough to get 550-600 home runs he will also have accumulated Runs Scored and RBI totals that will be HOF worthy.

It is all going to come down to the counting stats. Dunn has been able to put up high levels of HRs, RBIs and Runs while having a low BA and very good but not fantastic OPS and wOBA numbers. At the end of the day he was putting runs on the scoreboard with his hitting despite playing on mostly bad teams and getting very little support from his teammates. Dunn is a statistical oddity -- he is a very productive player despite faring poorly in the statistics that usually predict which players will be productive.

As we have seen, some people disagree but I think it is clear that IF he gets to 550 home runs and 1500 RBIs he will definitely get into the Hall of Fame. Of course he still has a long way to go to reach those numbers and he might not ever reach them, but if he does he will get in to the HOF eventually despite his low batting average and strikeouts. Like I have shown, if Dunn finishes up in the top 25 in career home runs and the top 100 in career RBIs and the top 100 in career Runs he is a slam dunk. If he doesn't reach those numbers he won't get in. Those numbers are definitely attainable for him, but he still has a long way to go. He is already 2/3 to 3/4 of the way there and he is only 32 years old. Another 4 or 5 healthy seasons should get him there. If he has any injuries or doesn't play every day it will take longer. It is going to be a matter of longevity like it was for many HOFers. There are a lot of guys in the Hall of Fame who were not as good as Adam Dunn, and there are a lot of guys not in the Hall of Fame that were better than Adam Dunn. Admission to the HOF is not 100% correlated to your skill as a player, there are many factors that go into it.

There are a variety of ways to punch your ticket to enshrinement in the Hall of Fame. Some guys get in by being a good player on great teams. Other guys get in by being elite, dominant players for a few years before fading quickly. Other guys get in by stacking up big totals over a long career despite never being one of the best players in the game. Dunn's hope is to be one of those guys who finish their careers with a ton of production totals even though he was never a superstar and never had the good fortune to play for one of the championship teams.

I'll be honest with you - I don't remember a player who's been elected to the HOF on the strength of his RBI or Run totals. I've heard those stats frequently cited more as a part of a long list of bullet points for more all around hitters. But voters like way more primary stats. Hits, home runs, career average, stolen bases.

CTA513
08-19-2012, 04:13 AM
Is Bad Fundamentals still around?

He seems to have faded away after his favorite punching bag got traded.

KronoRed
08-19-2012, 06:43 AM
Is Bad Fundamentals still around?

Probably, just changed his name.

TeamBoone
08-19-2012, 04:45 PM
He hit #400 tonight to left center and off a lefty.

Congrats to you, Adam. Way to go.

REDREAD
08-20-2012, 05:20 PM
Is Bad Fundamentals still around?

I think he got banned? Not 100% sure though.

bucksfan2
08-20-2012, 05:25 PM
.159/.292/.277 OPS.569 OPS+ 55 as a 31 year old in his prime. Statistically that is one of the worst seasons ever recorded in baseball. I don't know how you put that in the HOF.

westofyou
08-20-2012, 05:37 PM
.159/.292/.277 OPS.569 OPS+ 55 as a 31 year old in his prime. Statistically that is one of the worst seasons ever recorded in baseball. I don't know how you put that in the HOF.

You don't, you put their whole body of work in, it's called Hall of Fame Career, not season

I'm still pondering how Bill Mazeroski even gets in with a .260/.299/.367 lifetime line, no glove is that good.

Joseph
08-20-2012, 06:34 PM
I'm still pondering how Bill Mazeroski even gets in with a .260/.299/.367 lifetime line, no glove is that good.

The buddy system for a super swell guy?

Big Klu
08-20-2012, 06:53 PM
You don't, you put their whole body of work in, it's called Hall of Fame Career, not season

I'm still pondering how Bill Mazeroski even gets in with a .260/.299/.367 lifetime line, no glove is that good.

The .666 OPS? :evil:

redsfandan
08-24-2012, 11:27 PM
Dunn now has 38 homers.

Not bad for a bounce back season at all.

(I'm surprised one of the Dunners didn't post this already.)

camisadelgolf
08-25-2012, 12:40 AM
It's nice to see a dh having a good year in the league he belongs in. I'll still take Ludwick when it comes to the Reds though.

redsfandan
08-25-2012, 03:40 AM
To be clear, just because I'm not one of his biggest fans doesn't mean that I'm rooting against him.

camisadelgolf
08-25-2012, 03:56 AM
To be clear, just because I'm not one of his biggest fans doesn't mean that I'm rooting against him.
Why are you rooting against him?

redsfandan
08-25-2012, 04:15 AM
Why are you rooting against him?

Lol. I'm NOT rooting againt Dunn. Although I really appreciate the comment from Cam cuz it made me laugh. Whether Dunn wins the homer title or the comeback title or gets into the HOF doesn't matter to me in the least. As long as the Reds are winning. lol

WMR
08-25-2012, 04:57 AM
He would almost assuredly go in as a Red. I think that would be pretty cool. The cleanest home run champ of the era was a Red.

redsfandan
08-25-2012, 05:08 AM
He would almost assuredly go in as a Red. I think that would be pretty cool. The cleanest home run champ of the era was a Red.

Wouldn't the cleanest home run champ of the era go in as a Mariner?

Big Klu
08-25-2012, 05:20 AM
He would almost assuredly go in as a Red. I think that would be pretty cool. The cleanest home run champ of the era was a Red.

I disagree. If he goes into the Hall Of Fame, it will be because he has added something significant to his current resume, and he will have done that in someone else's uniform.

jojo
08-25-2012, 10:28 AM
Wouldn't the cleanest home run champ of the era go in as a Mariner?

JR definitely goes in as a Mariner. His reds tenure isn't HOF worthy.

kaldaniels
08-25-2012, 12:44 PM
I disagree. If he goes into the Hall Of Fame, it will be because he has added something significant to his current resume, and he will have done that in someone else's uniform.

For example?

While not likely, if he keeps plodding along with 35+ home runs a year and ends up at 550, let alone 600, he is going to have a shot. At that juncture, why would he not go in as a Red?

Big Klu
08-25-2012, 01:40 PM
For example?

While not likely, if he keeps plodding along with 35+ home runs a year and ends up at 550, let alone 600, he is going to have a shot. At that juncture, why would he not go in as a Red?

Home run titles, postseason appearances, All-Star appearances. If he gets into the HOF, it will be because of something noteworthy that he accomplishes later in his career, which won't be in a Cincinnati uniform.

kaldaniels
08-25-2012, 01:56 PM
Home run titles, postseason appearances, All-Star appearances. If he gets into the HOF, it will be because of something noteworthy that he accomplishes later in his career, which won't be in a Cincinnati uniform.

So if he simply gets to 600 HR at the rate at which he is playing now, you don't believe he gets in?

I'm not certain, but I disagree if thats what you believe.

Big Klu
08-25-2012, 02:26 PM
So if he simply gets to 600 HR at the rate at which he is playing now, you don't believe he gets in?

I'm not certain, but I disagree if thats what you believe.

I'm not sure he will play long enough to get to 600, but if he does he will definitely be considered. However, he will be associated with some other club in the public consciousness by that time. Few people will think of him as a Red, particularly because his days in Cincinnati were forgettable from a success standpoint.

kaldaniels
08-25-2012, 03:06 PM
I'm not sure he will play long enough to get to 600, but if he does he will definitely be considered. However, he will be associated with some other club in the public consciousness by that time. Few people will think of him as a Red, particularly because his days in Cincinnati were forgettable from a success standpoint.

Let's say he plays out his contract thru 2014 with Chicago and signs with say Baltimore. Then he gets to 600 and retires in 2018.

Who would he go in as?

My whole premise is based on him getting to 600, or very close. Success/memorable moments are not guaranteed.

fearofpopvol1
08-25-2012, 05:30 PM
I'm not sure he will play long enough to get to 600, but if he does he will definitely be considered. However, he will be associated with some other club in the public consciousness by that time. Few people will think of him as a Red, particularly because his days in Cincinnati were forgettable from a success standpoint.

Disagree. If he gets 600 and if he is considered, he would go in as a Red. 8 seasons and almost 300 home runs in a Reds uniform. The only way I could MAYBE see him going in as a White Sox player would be if he played the rest of his career there. And I just don't see it.

Big Klu
08-25-2012, 05:52 PM
My guess is he would go in as an Oriole, since his milestone homers #500 and #600 would be with Baltimore. I doubt the public would think of him as a Red. More likely, he will develop a reputation as being somewhat of a mercenary.

Of course, 600 is still no guarantee that he gets in. It used to be that 400 was the magic number, until Dave Kingman got there. Then 500 became the new magic number. But steroids have tainted that. In fact, the cloud hanging over such players as Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, and Palmeiro may have ruined altogether the idea of a "magic number" for home runs.

I think 3000 is still the magic number for hits, though.

kaldaniels
08-25-2012, 06:05 PM
My guess is he would go in as an Oriole, since his milestone homers #500 and #600 would be with Baltimore. I doubt the public would think of him as a Red. More likely, he will develop a reputation as being somewhat of a mercenary.

Of course, 600 is still no guarantee that he gets in. It used to be that 400 was the magic number, until Dave Kingman got there. Then 500 became the new magic number. But steroids have tainted that. In fact, the cloud hanging over such players as Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, and Palmeiro may have ruined altogether the idea of a "magic number" for home runs.

I think 3000 is still the magic number for hits, though.

I agree that he would be a mercenary but it's odd to me your resistance to him going in as a Red, certainly a reasonable possibility of it.

Big Klu
08-25-2012, 06:10 PM
I agree that he would be a mercenary but it's odd to me your resistance to him going in as a Red, certainly a reasonable possibility of it.

I guess I'm trying to say that I don't think he's HOF-worthy right now, and if he becomes worthy then he will have done something with some other club that will make him be identified with them.

fearofpopvol1
08-26-2012, 12:16 AM
My guess is he would go in as an Oriole, since his milestone homers #500 and #600 would be with Baltimore. I doubt the public would think of him as a Red. More likely, he will develop a reputation as being somewhat of a mercenary.

Of course, 600 is still no guarantee that he gets in. It used to be that 400 was the magic number, until Dave Kingman got there. Then 500 became the new magic number. But steroids have tainted that. In fact, the cloud hanging over such players as Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, and Palmeiro may have ruined altogether the idea of a "magic number" for home runs.

I think 3000 is still the magic number for hits, though.

I don't see it. Dunn wouldn't get to decide what cap he wears (if he were to make it to the HoF). And he would play, what, at most, maybe 5 years there? He's probably going to acquire 150 or less home runs there. It would be like MLB putting Griffey Jr. in as a Red, because he hit big milestones in a Reds uniform. I just don't see it happening.

Chip R
08-26-2012, 01:16 AM
I can't remember if I heard it or read it - I think I heard it - but some person who is very Sabermetrically inclined said Dunn should not make it into the HOF even if he hits 600 HRs. That person believed his fielding - or lack thereof - is the sticking point.

redsfandan
08-27-2012, 08:05 AM
I can't remember if I heard it or read it - I think I heard it - but some person who is very Sabermetrically inclined said Dunn should not make it into the HOF even if he hits 600 HRs. That person believed his fielding - or lack thereof - is the sticking point.

Really, there might be more things going against him then for him.

Against him:

The poor defense/dh stigma.

Poor career batting average.

Playing at least part of his career in the steroids era.

Lack of awards.

For him:

Homer total.

Even if things go well for him he'll probably be, at best, a bubble guy.

smith288
08-30-2012, 12:02 AM
Dunn would solidify hof status if he participated in one home run derby.

fearofpopvol1
08-30-2012, 01:47 AM
Really, there might be more things going against him then for him.

Against him:

The poor defense/dh stigma.

Poor career batting average.

Playing at least part of his career in the steroids era.

Lack of awards.

For him:

Homer total.

Even if things go well for him he'll probably be, at best, a bubble guy.

I think you can say he has his On Base % going for him as well. Not that that alone would be a deciding factor, but it is a positive for him.

GAC
08-30-2012, 05:19 AM
Hall of Fame future? He's not Dunn yet

http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2012/08/28/hall-fame-future-not-dunn-yet/



Really, there might be more things going against him then for him.

Against him:

The poor defense/dh stigma.

Poor career batting average.

Playing at least part of his career in the steroids era.

Lack of awards.

For him:

Homer total.

I'm sure there are plenty of ballplayers in the HOF who weren't known for their defense, but were inducted (overcame that) with solid, consistent performance in other areas. (this one is right up woy's alley) ;)

Batting average..... for years I've listened to how batting average, while not totally dismissed, is not a very reliable or accurate (for lack of better words) gauge for measuring/evaluating a player's performance. There have been numerous instances (discussions) overs the years, and on this forum too, where a certain player is mentioned, maybe hyped somewhat, because he is a "300 hitter", yet right away some will throw out "Yeah, but he has a .315 OB% and a SLG% of .396, and that's a .711 OPS."

Dunn does have other positive attributes, other than HR totals, that shouldn't be ignored when it comes to that consideration. He has a pretty solid career OB% of .371, and a SLG% of .502. He walks 16.3 percent of the time. That is a top-30 all-time number. He's good because 22.1 percent of his fly balls go over the fence. That's tenth all-time.

http://thecutoffman.mlblogs.com/2012/08/14/adam-dunn-and-the-3-true-outcome-hitter/


Dunn is also just off the pace to pull off one of the oddest and rarest Triple Crowns in history, as he leads all of baseball in each of the 3 true outcomes walks (81) and strikeouts (166) and homeruns (33). That also means an astonishing 57.8% of his 491 plate appearances have ended without the ball landing in the field of play. Only a meager handful of players in baseball history have ever approached that 57.8% mark, and according to Jonah Keri, only 5 players have ever won the homer/strikeout/walks Triple Crown, with the most recent being Dale Murphy in 1985. If you were wondering, Babe Ruth has done it on 4 separate occasions and is still the only player to accomplish this feat more than once.

Dunn takes walks and hits homers. This is what he does, but he does it quite well.

He strikes out too much? Most power hitters do. Reggie Jackson is in the HOF, yet he currently holds the record for Ks (2597). Jim Thome will possibly break that. If Dunn is able to play several more years he'll probably be the record holder, but I don't think that should be a huge factor in the decision.

I'm not saying, nor am I advocating, he'll make it into the HOF. But IF he plays several more years, crests 600 HRs, and IF the above numbers mentioned stay consistent, then IMO he'll get serious consideration.

jojo
08-30-2012, 07:27 AM
Some have argued that if Dunn reaches the 550-600 HR mark, then his chances for the Hall increased dramatically.

I'm not seeing it.

He very well could be only the second player in history to hit 500 HRs with a SLG percentage below .500. The other guy? Reggie Jackson.

Dunn is Reggie Jackson without the pinstripes or the playoffs. Reggie was Mr. October. Dunn is Mr. April.

I just don't see Dunn in the HOF.

redsfandan
08-30-2012, 07:46 AM
I'm sure there are plenty of ballplayers in the HOF who weren't known for their defense, but were inducted (overcame that) with solid, consistent performance in other areas. (this one is right up woy's alley) ;)

How many players have made it into the HOF with the pros and cons I listed??

He's got the homers going for him (and the obp, although some voters will still value batting average more).

The poor batting average, poor defense/dh stigma, the era he played in, and the lack of awards go against him.

Lack of playoff experience doesn't help either. Yeah, that's not something he could help. But, doing well in the playoffs is something that DOES help a player's chances. Dunn doesn't have that to help him either.

How many HOFers have that profile?

And I don't mean guys with power and 'decent' batting average, average defense, and a few awards. Cuz that's not Dunn.

Some sluggers have things on their resume that don't help them but don't hurt them that much. Those cons HURT his chances.


I'm not saying, nor am I advocating, he'll make it into the HOF. But IF he plays several more years, crests 600 HRs, and IF the above numbers mentioned stay consistent, then IMO he'll get serious consideration.
That I can agree with. It's just a matter of how much consideration.

mth123
08-30-2012, 07:46 AM
Some have argued that if Dunn reaches the 550-600 HR mark, then his chances for the Hall increased dramatically.

I'm not seeing it.

He very well could be only the second player in history to hit 500 HRs with a SLG percentage below .500. The other guy? Reggie Jackson.

Dunn is Reggie Jackson without the pinstripes or the playoffs. Reggie was Mr. October. Dunn is Mr. April.

I just don't see Dunn in the HOF.

I'm one of those who thinks Dunn has a chance. Don't get me wrong, I don't think for one minute that Dunn is on par with most of the other players in the HOF. I get the arguments. I just think its as simple as the HR total. HRs are a glamour stat. I think if he gets to 600 HRs he'll get serious consideration. Whenever somebody does something less than 10 guys in the history of the game have done in such a high profile category, I think they'll get in on that alone.

I don't want to open the floodgates, but take the case of Tony Perez. Tony was and is my favorite player in the game's history, but he's in the Hall because he was in the top 20 all time in RBIs at the time he was elected. I do agree that his profile as a "leader" on the BRM and Bench and Morgan stumping for him probably helped, but I think those RBIs are the primary reason he's in. In Dunn's case, I think the same will happen with 600 HR. 10 years after he retires, there will be guys voting who didn't see much of his adventures in LF and don't remember some of that stuff. They'll look at the All Time HR list and say, "this guy has to be in." Many on here have watched Dunn every day or many have fully jumped into advanced metrics and neither group would likely put Dunn in, but the voters are generally a dim lot IMO. They'll look at those 600 HRs and vote him in. That said, if he ends with 599, I don't think he has a chance.

I really like Dunn and think he's downgraded too much for the Ks and the defense and doesn't get enough credit for getting on base as much as he does, but he's not one of the top 250 players in the game's history. I see why people say he won't get in, but I think 600 HRs gets him in and the rest won't matter.

RedsManRick
08-30-2012, 10:16 AM
I think we sometimes forget how high the HOF voting threshold is. At the end of the day, whether or not you get in is based on whether 26% of voters find reason to keep you out. I agree Dunn will get significantly support if he's finishes his career in the 600 range. But I think at least 26% of the voters will look at his batting average, his defense and the resultant WAR (to say nothing of his lack of playoff heroics) and say "at the end of the day, this guy was a one trick pony and that's not enough."